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Super Killer HIV Strain Health officials in New York City and elsewhere are worried about a new mutation of HIV that can turn into full-blown AIDS in just 3-months. STORY. Although HIV has faded a bit from the public mind, this new strain is sure to cause major concerns and a renewal in testing programs.
70% Interest - New High in Predatory Lending We've written many times in the past about how the banksters are attacking the poor with false and misleading credit card offers. Here's a link to a story about a card that offers 70% interest. The banksters will complain that they are just making a market in credit for poor folks with bad credit. We would offer that what they're doing is exploiting the poor in the name of out and out greed - just as tsunami reconstruction loans exploiting countries and people who haven't a clue as to the bankster's global plan to enslave via debt.
You want to read something really disgusting about how the "Live on Debt' mentality is being shoved down the collective throats of today's young people? Here's the gist of a letter from a reader of my ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year". Ready? Blood pressure pills handy?
It went something like this: "My daughter in school was given the exercise of trying to figure out how to live if she had lost her job. She wanted to use some of the ideas in your book, but the teacher said "No, you can't share expenses, rent out a room to share rent with others...this is an exercise in making it totally on your own..." You know what this is, right? Programming. Teaching the young to love debt.
New Book to Read Trader Jim Goulding, who has contributed so much to our economic discussion groups with his analysis of turning points (after Strauss and Howe) has turned to fiction for his next literary adventure. Click over to: http://www.jamesgoulding.com/Nano.htm for more on his forthcoming book "Nano."
Friday Russia Arming Venezuela We've been telling you for some time to keep an eye on Venezuela because it's where about 20% of US oil imports come from. Not only has the President Chavez government signed a big oil deal with China, but they are also beefing up their military with Russian help. We give you all this background because today Russia is saying any US concerns about their dealings with Venezuela are misplaced: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/02/11/chavez.shtml We think there will likely be a big US play against Venezuela in the near future for several reasons, not the least of which is keeping China from growing too fast and weaning them from their dependence on the US economy.
Bush Was Warned on AQ That's the latest disclosure in a declassified memo from Richard Clark, which is being played up in the Arab press: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/32E31B19-B7E9-40A0-B609-39E13B878640.htm Clark has already said as much on 60-Minutes and elsewhere.
More Attacks on Liberty Indulge me for a moment while I rant.
The Illusion and the Fable are wonderful. A country of free people, protected from the tyranny of corporations and unjust government by a balanced tripartite of executive, legislative and judicial branches - enforced in part by a free press. A country where money is sound, spending is responsible, and old fashioned thrift and hard work pay off. The problem is that it's rather quickly become untrue. Corporations are unchecked, government has run amok trampling personal liberties, and bankers hold our Treasury hostage through the misnamed "federal" reserve. Today, a couple of data points further support the this view:
We find a White House spokesperson asking the question "What is a reporter?" STORY In the Fable, anyone could become a member of the Press by just taking up a printing press. A country becomes fascist when government defines press legitimacy. Guess where we're going? Licensing of the Internet will come along, too.
Even more frightening is the corporatist-influenced House which has passed an electronic ID bill. DETAILS. The weak-minded in Congress seem to believe that including a digital picture and machine readable technology in a drivers license will thwart terrorists. Hell, we can't even keep illegals out along the Mexico border. Are these people delusional? You'll see through more thoughtful eyes that both before and after the biggest cases of terror around the world, no one was looking at drivers licenses - and when chase was taken up, it was after the first responders had moved into action. We note at the WTC and Pentagon, there were no cases of false identities. And the passports used by the 19 extremists were issued by the State Department's then lax policies. But, a Big Lie, repeated often enough....
It's fine, I suppose, that more folks don't realize that they are pledged to servitude of bankers, their identity as national chattel (recently since birth) yoked by the banker's lien on America accomplished with the misnamed Social Security number and the erosion of rights since the Depression and the emergence of corporate law since 1938.
I for one hope the Fable is still true, but the evidence seems to mount that the "uniquely American three jobs" and 16-hour days are so government exact a larger share of your work, your taxes, or both, while working people get less. The days of one hard working man or woman supporting a family reads like an old Happy Days storyline.
Helping a Reader A Canadian reader sent in a question this morning that is quite directly related to the facts above.
Dear Reader: There was a time when government of the United States was not interested in its size, its importance in the field of international politics, and other such psuedo-economic issues. It was founded on principles of Liberty and Justice for all. Lately, we have only to read the headlines and look at the size of political campaign budgets to realize that the real plan (if not accomplished fact) is for Bankers to take over running the world and subdue those troublesome folks who insist on supporting the Constitution and renounce as Free Men corporate debt they didn't not incur. You see, government no longer runs things - corporations run things through government - and bankers have become the action arm of corporatists. Look at the relationship of the FDA and Drug Companies, as just one example.
So, although China has arisen to become a challenger on one level, they have also been brought to heel by issuing them so much paper debt that the relationship of their currency - and thus economy - to the US's currency (and thus economy) is brokered more by corporate interests than idealists.
To look at the world as political divisions is far less meaningful in analysis of trends than the analysis by geopolitical economic blocks because that's what's blurring - the line between nation-states and economic-states. The new borders of the world are defined best by seeing borders outlined by Euros, Dinars, Yuan, Yen, and Dollars. Handing the Yuan boyz a pile of Dollars is all part of the power transition to a new, less debt-bloated currency, and the tool by which the plan is to indenture billions of Chinese to keep the game alive. It will be sold as China the Super Power while the reality will become China the Super Debtor. It's the world where yin and yang is Yuan and Buck.
When the time is right, we will have another "world war" and the usual suspects will be found profiting by selling to both sides and brokering their best personal deals - much as was the case in World War II.
Elaine asked an interesting question yesterday. "You know that movie about Roosevelt? He had a Scotty dog in the movie. I wonder if that's historically accurate. Because doesn't George Bush have Scotties?"
Yes, Elaine, you'll be pleased to know the White House has a whole web site on Barney and Miss Beazley http://www.whitehouse.gov/barney/ And, that'd be Roosevelt's dog Fala. In poker, we'd maybe call this a "tell."
Dell Flat And for that reason, we expect the market to open flat, maybe have a little hype and then close lower today. http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050211/872b1a5f95cb7fc215d5ef740455845f_1.html Earnings. We'd have a wonderful economy if it wasn't for spending and earnings, wouldn't we?
Iraq: 20 More Dead Peace in Iraq? Dream on: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4257273.stm Other accounts place the toll closer to 25: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A7CF5363-EEF7-4015-A5C9-66C6F1751588.htm Since the election there has been little in the way of peace. The death toll counts seem to be running just as before.
Update Schedule
Intraday Update GT Clarifies OK, just so we're clear on what's going on with gold, here's the latest from my buddy the Gold Trader:
Fair enough...
Notice Gold? We have been watching gold pop up more than $4 today with considerable interest recently for several reasons, not the least of which is our friend the Gold Trader noting that commercials have taken up huge long-side positions and the warnings from the web scanning technology that the dollar's fate was slumping. GT thinks the weakness might last until June, but unless we are going to see a double bottom in gold, I see there's a chance that the recent dips to the $409 range were "it." No, this is not investment advice - just some observations for our own accounts where we have a few odd scraps of the yellow dog salted away as Canadian Maple Leafs which seem like coin of the realm under NAFTA and with less premium in them that Eagles. If someone asks me how much gold we have, I can honestly says "just a few thousand" - neglecting to mention that is calculated on the face value of $20 gold pieces...but hey, the Treasury still states its gold at $42 an ounce, so why not us little guys? With recent reports of a "bull market in commodities" we're happy to report that gold is a "commodity."
Attention: Deficit Disorder We have been watching the progress of the US dollar ever since the web bots made their recent call for a loss of equilibrium (which will become apparent in retrospect) happening about a week ago. Today, we not only worry about the chance of China revaluing its currency, a move which with a single stroke could rapidly increase the rate of inflation in the U.S., but which would also point out to the entire thinking world that China is now calling the shots. More fuel for the fire is out today as the trade deficit has soared again. DETAILS. We frankly expect the market to continue drifting down for quite a while now. How far is down? Other than today's action, STORY it will all be driven by future events.
A bit of math is interesting to consider. If we take the US GDP ( story out earlier this week ) less federal spending ($9.158 trillion) and we back out the $$0.6177 trillion ($617.7-billion) we see that 6.74% of the GDP is made up of borrowed funds. Put another way, we can see how the federal budget plan of the Bush administration depends on continued foreign deficits in order to make sense. A real reduction in the balance of trade deficit would tighten the stranglehold of debt on government which is why you don't see members of congress rushing about to close the gap - we need it or government services would need to be cut even further than the budget proposed!
Let me repeat that: The reason that government is not doing anything about the trade deficit is that it too depends on the deficit to make ends meet and without a trade deficit, there would have to be even more federal belt tightening. Fix the deficit talk is therefore all hype and no substance - voter entertainment, folks, voter entertainment!
Speaking of WalMart We noticed an article in the new on Wednesday about how WalMart was threatening to close down a store in Canada rather than have a union shop set up by its workers. DETAILS. Our views are neutral on this - we're sympathetic to the workers on the one hand, but we shopped at WalMart a lot at our Texas ranch this year because WalMart had more product than the other stores in the average small town. Which is one reason WalMart has grown so much. However, one of the things that happens when you get into a depression, whether you agree with the notion that we have suggesting that we're in a slow-motion replay of 1929-1940 here, is that unionism makes a return. This is, I think, just the leading edge of what we expect will be a big trend going forward. George Bush's three jobs comment notwithstanding.
So Which War Will It Be? There are now two fronts where the US could be engaged in a serious war. Not that Iraq wasn't serious - I came too close to losing a son-in-law over there, but the traditional way to get a country out of a depression is to build up for a major war. We have two candidates to keep an eye on. One is Iran where there is a huge army backed by Russia and others off in the shadows. The other is North Korea which is taking a more belligerent stand today. DETAILS. Has nukes, won't talk is the gist of it.
China, which says it hopes the six-party talks can resume, reports that North Korea is not happy with the attitude of the Bush administration - which has been doing some bad-mouthing of other countries which don't see things as the neocons do:
All this has prompted our military affairs expert, who is just recently back from a field trip to Afghanistan and Iraq, to write:
More importantly from the US perspective: North Korea with nukes is a much more dangerous adversary than Saddam could ever hope to be. One other though - could this be what the bots meant about "equilibrium lost"? We still think that it's economic in nature, but then again, nuclear warfare, even ifa limited, is a faster problem than currency creep.
The Bush administration is trying to get world opinion rounded up on Iran, but we expect a large chunk of the world, including Russia, will side with Iran. STORY After all, except for the fact that they have oil, there's not much difference between Iran and Pakistan - both being Islamic nations and all. But they do have oil and that does make a difference. Iran says it's staying the course./ LINK.
Summary of Fanny Here's a posting to a discussion site that is worth reading: http://www.gmstechstreet.com/cgi-bin/webbbs_gmspublic.pl?read=54379 Remember that the bots have been going on about how Fannie and Freddie are in trouble - along with the FDA shortly, so keep an eye out for anything that says Fannie Mae on it. FNM is down more than 10% since our first mention of this to you.
Arkansas Quake We noticed a 4.2 earth in Arkansas of all places. DETAILS. The expected increase in quakes around February 8th turned out to be minor, so the next window comes up around the 13-17th of this month. Greatest chance seems like Valentines Day.
Global Heating Latest on global warming: 2004 was the third or fourth hottest on record: LINK.
Russia's Solar Malaise While we've been scanning headlines, waiting for the web bot predicted stories about "averting eyes from the sun" and other mentions of "solar disruptions" we spied this rather curious piece in the Russian press about how Russians blame just about everything that goes wrong - on the sun! DETAILS. Weird, huh?
Russia Gas Worries No, it's not like they have the 101 or the Harbor Freeway, but people in Russia are buying more gas to put into their cars. And they're going through gas price blues, just like we did last summer when prices were up around $2.50 a gallon. DETAILS. By the way, when you click on the link, see how many brands of cars you can recognize in the photo as being from other countries. The outlook is that gas prices will go up significantly here in the US this summer.
Charlie's Bride We hear that Prince Charles is tying the knot: STORY. My take? Sure you want it? I thought Princess Diane was a beautiful woman (inside and out) and while we don't know as much about Charlie's flame's thought processes, I was wondering if Charles needs glasses...
No Name Change Not very many people vote - especially in our periodic polls of readers about how we should develop this web site to meet more user needs. Nevertheless 160- people said to leave the site's name and content alone. 48-people said it would be good to be more "mainstream" with a name change to Independence Journal. We will therefore continue with the IJ site being more a lifestyle and "how to get away from it all" site. Thanks for voting.
Wednesday The Saipan Jitters Our correspondent out on Saipan writes today that USGS scientists have shown up to look at the bothersome volcanic activity in Saipan/Marianas/Guam area. STORY. As you know from following this site for any length of time, we've been expecting a major build-up of quakes and volcanic activity with an increase due now - and further expectations around the 14th-19th. Our correspondent reports that the whole situation is making people who live on the western side of the Pacific tectonic plate more than just a little nervous:
About that M.E. "Truce" You'll recall yesterday how we voiced the expectation that any truce between the Palestinians and Israel would last as long as a cold beer on a hot day? Well, according to a BBC REPORT out today, Hamas and other groups have already started whining about it. Surprise, Surprise.
Philippine Fighting Islamist extremists are picking up the tempo of attacks in the Philippines - a situation that's being watched more by the Arab world that narcissistic American media: DETAILS. ----- Meantime, the hand of Basque extremists is suspected in a powerful bomb blast today in Madrid: STORY. Notice how the "war around the edges" continues unabated by elections, hype and hyperbole?
U.S. Hand in Ukraine Elections? The Russian press today is pointing out alleged involvement of a U.S.-based PR firm in helping to put a western-leaning government in power in the Ukraine: LINK. Here's an interesting question: Why a Washington D.C. PR firm and who wrote the checks? OK, that's two questions, now that the coffee is kicking in...Still, it could be worse - they could have used US voting machines. ----- More rocks being thrown at Halliburton in the press: STORY.
Fiorina: Exit After doing what some thought was a pretty decent job getting HP & Compaq combined, Carly Fiorina is leaving HP: STORY. Although she's a capable exec, from a consumer perspective, I was less than impressed with the the customer service angle of the HP/Compaq merger. I had nothing but grief last year trying to find real customer support for a Compaq (I think it was a 6550-US, (P4-80gb 512mb) that we used up at the ranch. Bounced from one telephone number to another, only to be told our "model doesn't come with tech support" we were left with a very sour taste about Compaq's bastard-child customer service treatment. Seems, if I recall right, the computer wasn't assembled in Mexico - although that was used as an excuse at one point. Even though I paid for it with locally printed FRN's. Nevertheless, we just bought an HP printer this week for Elaine, so maybe -hopefully - the service has improved. On the other hand, how tough is one cable and a couple of ink cartridges compared with a multiple video card issue screen refresh time issue?
Not the HP/Compaq is alone in leaving consumers hanging. Want me to launch into my whine about how our Sony Vaio lost it's extended desktop capabilities when we migrated to Win XP from Win 98SE? I didn't think so...
Virus Threats A report out from IBM says there were more than 28,000 new computer viruses unleashed in 2004: DETAILS. We are sticking with our proposal that computer viruses should be made a capital crime and include the death penalty for viruses that cause death and criminal liability for business losses.
Nothing Funny about Three Jobs While we don't find anything funny about it, the President last Friday was able to get a few laughs when he turned an awkward moment into laughter. Details of the encounter at http://www.drudgereport.com/flashss.htm . This is one of those stories which readers are already reacting to. One high-powered female financial market exec writes us:
Of course, we already know the answer to that one, don't we class?
Gold Hits Target Range We've noticed that gold has bounced down to about the $410 area now (chart above) which means, if our estimates are right, it should start rising again shortly (prices above). Nevertheless, we don't make it a practice of calling turning points, but it seems to be around its 200 day moving average if we've read the right charts. The "free lunch budget" will require serious printing of paper "money" and that should be good for hard assets like gold and real estate. Except that real estate, as we have explained before has a few problems of its own; specifically it's not liquid and it's in a mini-bubble due to all the predatory lending that's ongoing in the sector.
Biggest Boners Business 2.0 has collected the 10-biggest business screw-ups of the past year. You can read 'em and weep at http://biz.yahoo.com/special/dumbest05_article1.html#1
Rebranding Considered I've noticed that UrbanSurvival readers, while having a high comprehension of economic drivers of news events, seem to enjoy our daily coverage of economic-related stories. For that reason, I am thinking about mirroring the content on our other web site - the Independence Journal site. Reason? The IJ site has a better name for the purpose of building a cittizen-reporter newspaper - one of our ultimate goals. Think of the concept as Drudge with some details and being able to be a reporter yourself... Alternatively, we could bring that project up next year when time permits.
Here's the reader poll question --- Please vote...
Click here to vote. to keep UrbanSurvival like it is.
Click here to vote for a more "credible" name - The Independence Journal.
This is not something that will happen overnight - As we get more subscribers though, the opportunity to go full-time into the newspapering (byte papering) business is tempting because it's so much fun.
Thanks to all the folks who voted on prioritizing my reading list - I'll be reading "Confessions of an Economic hit man" first...
Things to know:
Tuesday Freak Weather Resumes We're into our window of strangeness - and it looks like some way-out-of-the-ordinary weather is hammering the Middle East: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash3hl.htm Turkish media report on storm: LINK.
Government to get 28% of Everything! The big story of the day on Monday to most economic pundits was the Federal Budget put forth by the Bush Administration. But no one seems to have done the math. The real indicator of the largess of the budget is not the size ($2.57-trillion) but rather how that stacks up against the total goods and services of the entire nation.
The government has a habit of failing to report the actual number of the GDP, choosing instead to report the percentage change of what seems like dozens of categories. http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm. However, the People's Economist dug out the actual number of the GDP over at http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm we notice that its $11.728-trillion.
But before we make the obvious calculation, what percent of $11.728 trillion is $2.57 trillion, we need to reduce the $11.728 trillion by removing the $2.57 trillion. That's because the GDP figure includes all kinds of activity on behalf of government - in other words government which doesn't make anything other than "governance" swells the GDP from it's "closer-to-reality" $9.158-trillion.
When viewed in this light, government spending takes a whopping 28% of the Gross Domestic Product - and that's before we deduct the other costs of government. These costs, which are not collected centrally include state and city governments, not to mention counties. If you insist that government is productive (even though it doesn't make anything but government) then you can rest well knowing government is only taking 23% of everything.
If there's a bottom line to the budget situation it's that we find ourselves in the same position as the frog which is in hot water which is slowly being brought to a boil. Dumped in hot water from the get-go, the frog jumps out. But brought slowly up to a boil, a frog will simply die. So it goes for tax and bracket creep - and the magic of compound debt on our national economic integrity. ----- A Canadian reader sums up his amazement at the Bush budget this way:
We are shaking our heads around here, too. But hey, when government is getting 28% OF EVERYTHING, what did you expect, charity or something??? Once again I ask - what happened to my Republican Party - the one that believed in the Constitution, small central government, and fiscal restraint? Lest you think I'm a lone wolf on this, read the REPORT posted over at the American Enterprise institute website titled "The United States as an Indebted Empire... Chechens Have Nukes! That's the claim of a Russian tycoon who is living in exile in Great Britain: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/02/08/berezobomb.shtml We don't know if this is just a rehash of a rumor, but if the Chechens have a nuke, the odds of them using it come close to 100%. The only question is where the target might be. ----- China has noticed that the US is still building atomic weapons - which I for one think we may already have sufficient numbers of in hand. DETAILS ----- China is also reporting on Japan's increasing status of its self defense forces: STORY. ----- Trend: Seems like a regional arms race, that started with china buying naval ships a while back, is continuing to build...
Mid East Truce Yes it's nice to hear about a truce: STORY But, as best we can recall, these truces last about as long as the first beer on a hot day after doing heavy yard work. The economic impacts of this are nearly non-existent. Israel will remain armed to the teeth and I expect Hamas will keep buying arms. Still, any port in a storm.
13 Dead in Iraq ...and that's just in one incident: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4245579.stm The number of dead today is closer to 16 if Arab media reports are accurate - and the interesting thing about this REPORT is that one politician lost two sons in an assassination attempt. Regardless of the actual counts, the involvement of al Qaeda is reported. LINK.
Send in the Clones Remember Dolly the Sheep? Well, today the British Government has issued the first permit for human cloning experiments: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050208/D884BRPO0.html We think there's some danger to human cloning, especially since the planet already has a longage (as opposed to oa shortage) of people. ----- Meantime, in a somewhat related story - if you categorize by "limits of science" - a town is taking steps to restrict cosmetic surgery for pets: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050208/D884B9484.html
Who Cared Bowl I know it almost flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but the super Bowl Sunday was less than an advertising barn burner. According to Variety, ratings were low. LINK. We noticed that there were just about as many people shopping on Sunday afternoon when we were out looking for various doo dads, here in beautiful downtown Burbank, too...
Hot Spot: Togo Reason? Local politics: http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4785864,00.html Two things to note here. 1) We're waiting for fulfillment of a web bot forecast of a huge human march/exodus in Africa. 2) Western interest in Togo is likely to be directly related to oil reserves. We think this will turn out to be a sideshow compared with Guinea and Venezuela in oil power struggles to come. The reason we haven't stormed the country is revealed in the CIA World Factbook entry about the Togo economy:
Annulment Rush Seems Catholics are increasing asking for annulments to accompany their divorces: LINK We're not sure what kind of social trend this might indicate, except that perhaps folks are taking their vows - both to other humans and to the Church - more seriously of late.
Auto Recalls Ford Foci and Dodge Durangi (that'd be more than one Focus or one Durango, just like Lexi are multiple Lexuseses) this time. Details
Monday Web Bot Run Finished Report Available $250.00 for non-subscribers. For details click over to http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPHebcata_purchase.htm at the bottom of the page.
We know Trouble when we see it... Public's Debt Growth Outstrips GDP Growth It's a sad commentary on the quality of the much-touted and super-hyped Bushonian economists who can't seem to read numbers as well as they read signals called in by the White House Spinmeisters. We have today a clear-cut case of 6th grade reporting when the word comes out that the Gross Domestic Product was up 3.1% for 2004 STORY and then a bit later the Federal Reserve (which is not a government agency, but a bunch of fat-cat bankers holding the Treasury Department hostage) admits that Consumer Debt (which they mislabel as "consumer credit") was up at 4.1% for 2004. DETAILS.
Now, ask yourself: How healthy is an economy where debt is rising faster than the nation's output? It means that people are not able to live within their means, to us. All in favor of relabeling the sanctimonious national media as "suckrimonius nitwits" raise your hand....
Bush To Cut The stories are already flying hot and heavy in advance of the Administrations spending plans which are to be officially released later today. Although the story itself seems good LINK there are a couple of things to be kept in mind. The first is that in many cases what is sold as a "cut" is really just a slowing in the rate of increase compared with inflation. Secondly, the budget usually is quite a different critter than the sum total of all the spending the President ends up signing. And then there are black budgets which are run by the Shadow Government because they can't trust you and me to keep writing the checks if we knew what the money was really being spent on. Full daylight democracy on budgets? Get serious!
There's something much more important about the budget - and we think it will set the course for at least the first half of the year. It's a complex stew of Chinese economic might, the meeting this weekend of the G-7. Our Inside Report this week is modestly titled: "Which Equilibrium Point?" and addresses the "loss of equilibrium which the web bot project has signaled us to be on the lookout for. We suspect it may turn out to be the Chinese denouncing the dollar and the whole stew of economic responses which include war and Social Security's bailing out of the stock market... If you're not an Inside Report subscriber, click here for more information.
If you're not a subscriber, the Administration is not likely to admit it, but China is already starting to influence US domestic policy - by simply talking about their own currency. See why Buffett and Gates and hedging the Buck? The outcome will be the same either way it plays out.
G-7 Mumbles It's year old news - identical wording to the Boca Raton meeting of a year ago, coming out of the G-7. LINK. How'd you like to have the PR account on this one - recycle the same statement for a year and pull in mega fees? Sounds like a capitalist dream to us...
Voting with their Feet Interesting story in the NY Times today posted on another site, LINK. Seems like at least some of the people who said they would leave if Bush won re-election weren't kidding.
Despite Denials It looks like after initial denials, there may be something to the reports that car bombs in Iraq have killed 26 people and injured 20 along the way. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FD8A3CEE-D361-4CEB-8E83-BE050F35036E.htm Many US media aren't reporting this because of "confusion" over the story - namely spin.
Russia: Return of the Commies? Not that we're concerned just yet, but there has been a surprising win by the Communists in some regional elections in Russia: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/02/07/commnen.shtml Its a potential concern because it means that some people in Russia remember the Soviet times as "the good old days." Any significant return of communism should worry the hell out of the Administration - not that they don't have enough to worry about already.
Listen to Joe Granville Yes, late last week, perpetual market realist Joe Granville swept back into the public eye with stories about his dire forecast for the economy - which is pretty much exactly like our own - hitting Bloomberg and the NY Daily News. LINK Some great advice, offered from the perspective of someone who sees under 7,400 by the end of this year, was quoted:
Monday Chippie Day? Oops, I meant chip day! Yup, here comes the rival to Intel: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6b31ebfe-786b-11d9-9961-00000e2511c8.html. I'm a bit skeptical of new chip breakthroughs after the hyper-hyping of the latest "breakthrough." If it shows up in a retailer's joint for under 1.5 kilobucks, I'd consider it something.
Shaky Mysteries Between when we put bytes to phosphors and the time you read this, there are likely to have been more quakes overnight, since we are getting close to our February 7-8th window of potential dangerous angular momentums as the sunspots www.spaceweather.com get ready to swing around toward earth from the backside. Click the USGS site LINK for one count of quakes and then compare it with the Swiss site at THIS LOCATION.
Major discrepancies aside between USGS and the other worldwide sites, which you can look at semi-live at http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml. In particular we're expecting some word on hundreds of quakes reported in China from emails and other sources, but the sensors outside China don't seem to show much.
Meantime, the big story in the Pacific is the 7.1/7.2 in the Philippines over the weekend and the continuing problems of the Mariana Islands volcanoes reported at http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html. Our correspondent on Saipan, CN, sends along this update:
It's got our attention, for sure.
Big Bergs Moving From the NOAA news site http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2384.htm:
Using satellite imagery from the Canadian Space Agency, the NIC discovered the new iceberg, named A-53, when it broke off from the Larsen Ice Shelf on January 31. It measures 35 nautical miles on its longest axis and 16 nautical miles on its widest axis. The Larsen Ice Shelf is a large sheet of glacial ice and snow, extending along the eastern portion of the Palmer Peninsula, within the westernmost section of the Weddell Sea. A-53 is centered near 67.2S 60.5W. "Some icebergs of similar size that have broken off from the Larsen Ice Shelf have remained in the area for a while, while others have journeyed north," said Sean Helfrich, a NOAA meteorologist at the National Ice Center. "A-53 likely will not leave the Weddell Sea this year, and may even break off into additional icebergs sometime this year." Mysterious Mumbles Some speculation today about the softly muttered four-word prayer issued over the weekend by the ailing Pope. DETAILS. Our best guess? Do you know what the Latin is for "You people are screwed?"
Game? What game? Seriously, we worked instead. Today's new beverage to sip on: Baileys and Coca Cola - add the cold Coke to room temp Bailey's and it's like a big milkshake when it foams up. Refreshing, but not too heavy on the booze and quite a range of flavors. It's still a bit chilly for G&T's. On the game: The same team won again - what fun would that have been to watch?
Cuba Stuffs Stogies Yup - we're wondering what kind of workers paradise would ban the occasional stogie (and an adult beverage to go with it). The apparent answer is: Cuba. New Smoking Ban. LINK. We assume el jefe is exempt, eh Fidel?
Reader Queries and Survey: Say - if you want to help me with something, I'd appreciate it. The business that Elaine drove Elaine and I to come out to Burbank has been purchased by some colleagues. If you have any interest in becoming a recording engineer, or if you just happen to be a really good musician who is not signed and is looking for a free (with strings) recording studio in the LA are, then click here.
So how does this impact my seeking of advice? If you know what works in the LA market in direct-response advertising, drop me a note with your number. Also, if you have a cheap apartment/condo for lease in the SFV (LAese for San Fernando Valley) Click here.
OK, those are my queries for this week. Now the Survey. Here's what's in my reading bin at the moment:
If it were your reading bin, how would you stack them? Vote Here
How to Live on $10,000 a Year I've finally gotten around to finishing up the "consumer" release of "How to Live on $10,000 a year (or Less!). It's for sale over at our bookstore, [click to go there] along with a couple of other books - one will walk you step by step through building a web site. The other is how to use search engines more effectively. If you want the How to Live on under $10,000 book, click the link below. It's available only as a download. Inside Report subscribers - you already have this book! Discussion Group Link: http://urbansurvival.com/cgi-bin/discus/discus.cgi?pg=flogin Stats Last week this site served up 82,303 page views and 389,601 hits. Thanks for passing along the existence of this site your friends and colleagues. If there's someone who you this might like this site, please CLICK HERE to send them an email/.
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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Bulldog Editions when noted are the "early editions". Check back later for a more complete update. Bulletins as warranted. Normal byte times are 8:30 AM (or earlier) CDT Monday-Friday. Weekends as the spirit moves us. |
Saturday, Feb. 12, 2005 08:40 PST Weekender 
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