Reader Note: Please visit this site for an announcement Friday morning at 10 AM Central Time. Don’t ask. Just click after that time tomorrow.
Trade Figures
So, you’re wondering, when does the “improved productivity’ we keep hearing about turn into an increase in the balance of trade? new figures out from the Census Bureau today may hold some hints:
“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total January exports of $142.7 billion and imports of $180.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $37.3 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December, revised. January exports were $0.5 billion less than December exports of $143.2 billion. January imports were $3.1 billion less than December imports of $183.1 billion.
In January, the goods deficit decreased $2.5 billion from December to $49.4 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $12.1 billion. Exports of goods decreased $0.7 billion to $98.4 billion, and imports of goods decreased $3.2 billion to $147.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $44.3 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $32.2 billion.
In January, the goods and services deficit increased $0.4 billion from January 2009. Exports were up $18.7 billion, or 15.1 percent, and imports were up $19.1 billion, or 11.9 percent.
Goods (Census basis)
The December to January decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods ($1.0 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.5 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Increases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.5 billion) and consumer goods ($0.2 billion).
Other goods were virtually unchanged.
The December to January decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.5 billion); capital goods ($1.1 billion); and consumer goods ($0.9 billion). An increase occurred in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Other goods and industrial supplies and materials were virtually unchanged.
The January 2009 to January 2010 increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($7.0 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($3.4 billion); consumer goods ($2.1 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.7 billion); capital goods ($1.6 billion); and other goods ($0.4 billion)
It all boils down to a simple picture:
The Balance of Trade deficit got smaller, but we’re still spending more overseas than we ship out to the tune of $37.3 billion in January and that means we’re still living beyond out income as a country. So, what else is new?
—
Inflation in China hit a 16-month high and that has some people worried…but an annual inflation rate of 2.7% t’ain’t no biggie. Why the annual rate of debasing the US currency has averaged…oh…2,3% per year since 1913, so what’s the big deal? Inflation’s one of those games every talks about being bad but then everyone turns around and does it. It is what it is, know what I’m sayin’?
Unemployment Drops a Tad
Latest from Labor:
“In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 462,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 468,000. The 4-week moving average was 475,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 470,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 27, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
Futures are pointing down a bit for the open.
Foreclosure Rate Slowing – A Bit
I don’t usually post whole sections of press releases, but the one from RealtyTrac on foreclosure data is a must read:
“RealtyTrac® (realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its February 2010 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 308,524 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 2 percent from the previous month but still 6 percent above the level reported in February 2009. The report also shows one in every 418 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in February.
“The 6 percent year-over-year increase we saw in February was the smallest annual increase we’ve seen since January 2006, when we began calculating year-over-year increases, but it still marked the 50th consecutive month of year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “This leveling of the foreclosure trend is not necessarily evidence that fewer homeowners are in distress and at risk for foreclosure, but rather that foreclosure prevention programs, legislation and other processing delays are in effect capping monthly foreclosure activity — albeit at a historically high level that will likely continue for an extended period.
“In addition, severe winter weather appears to have temporarily slowed the processing of foreclosure records in some Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states.”
Foreclosure activity by type Default notices (Notices of Default and Lis Pendens) were reported on a total of 106,208 U.S. properties during the month, an increase of 3 percent from the previous month but down 3 percent from February 2009. Default notices were down 25 percent from their peak of more than 142,000 in April 2009 but were still more than three times the number they were four years ago in February 2006.
Foreclosure auctions (Notices of Trustee’s Sale and Notices of Sheriff’s Sales) were scheduled for the first time on a total of 123,633 U.S. properties, a decrease of 1 percent from the previous month but still 16 percent higher than the level reported in February 2009. Scheduled auctions were down 14 percent from their peak of more than 144,000 in August 2009 but were also about three times higher than the number reported in February 2006.
Bank repossessions (REOs) were reported on a total of 78,683 U.S. properties during the month, a 10 percent decrease from the previous month but an increase of 6 percent from February 2009. Bank repossessions were down nearly 15 percent from their peak of more than 92,000 in December 2009 but were at nearly twice the level reported in February 2006.
Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates Nevada foreclosure activity decreased nearly 7 percent from the previous month and was down 30 percent from February 2009, but the state’s foreclosure rate continued to rank highest in the nation for the 38th month in a row. One in every 102 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing during the month — more than four times the national average.
Arizona and Florida documented nearly identical foreclosure rates, with one in every 163 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in both states. Despite a nearly 21 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month, Arizona’s rate was statistically slightly higher than Florida’s rate and ranked second highest among the states.
California’s foreclosure rate ranked fourth highest among the states, with one in every 195 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, and Michigan’s foreclosure rate ranked fifth highest among the states, with one in every 226 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.
Other states with foreclosure rates among the nation’s 10 highest were Utah (one in every 275 housing units), Idaho (one in 296), Illinois (one in 305), Georgia (one in 331) and Maryland (one in 407).
Six states account for more than 60 percent of national total The six states with the most foreclosure activity accounted for 61 percent of the national total in February. California led the way, with 68,562 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the month — down nearly 5 percent from the previous month and down 15 percent from February 2009.
Foreclosure activity in Florida increased nearly 15 percent from the previous month and was up more than 16 percent from February 2009. The state continued to post the nation’s second highest total, with 54,032 properties received a foreclosure filing during the month.
Increasing foreclosure activity boosted Michigan’s total to third highest among the states. A total of 20,028 Michigan properties received a foreclosure filing during the month — up nearly 14 percent from the previous month and up 59 percent from February 2009.
With 17,312 properties receiving a foreclosure filing, Illinois posted the fourth highest total, followed by Arizona, with 16,718 properties receiving a foreclosure filing, and Texas, with 12,638 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in February.
Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Georgia (12,177), Ohio (11,286), Nevada (11,035), and Maryland (5,732).
Divergent trends in metro areas with top 10 foreclosure rates Metro areas in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Florida, California and Arizona continued to dominate the top 10 highest foreclosure rates among metropolitan areas with a population of 200,000 or more, but activity trends in these areas varied considerably.
The Las Vegas metro area documented the highest metro foreclosure rate, with one in every 90 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, despite a 9 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month.
Six of the other metro areas in the top 10 — all in California or Arizona — also reported decreasing foreclosure activity from the previous month. The biggest monthly decrease among the top 10 was in the Phoenix metro area, where foreclosure activity dropped nearly 18 percent.
In contrast, the two Florida metro areas in the top 10 both posted substantial monthly increases in foreclosure activity. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area saw a 31 percent increase in foreclosure activity from the previous month, giving it the second highest metro foreclosure rate — one in every 92 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing. An increase of nearly 66 percent in foreclosure activity from the previous month helped boost the foreclosure rate in Port St. Lucie to sixth highest.
All of which is critically important stuff to watch if you’re planning to invest in a home (or a rental or two) over the next few years. Seems early yet to me, but I’m a reclusive miser – what can I say? Which gets me to…
‘Closing” in on Depression 2
Every once in a while folks have a “Duh!” moment – and this must be my day for it. Came when I was looking at the usual swarm of headlines that was floating on the screens and scanning two gazillion emails. Was there a common thread in the fabric of the news that hadn’t been ‘zoomed in on’?
The latest word to hit my news filters is “closing”. If there’s some common element to a Second Depression’s economic stories, it might be ‘closing’ down of all kinds of things. For instance:
Taken individually, may not seem like any one of these is a particularly big deal (although obviously it is to the people involved). Looking at the Google Trend Labs data, some of the use of ‘closing’ as it relates to Olympics may be declining, but the word itself is still going strong in searches.
Just something to keep an eye (and ear, I suppose) on, since as we edge closer to Depression going mainstream in everyday speech (mid summerish) we ought to see the work ‘closing’ figuring prominently in daily discourse.
Cost of Illegals
Report out of the LA area’s Daily Breeze reveals that 25% of welfare payments in LA County go to illegals.
—
2½ million people in Florida are on food stamps.
Fee Justice
Let me ask you something: If you found out that a state government was deliberately handing out speeding tickets to try and close a budget gap, how would you feel about it? Pissed? Well then you don’t what to read about recent goings on in Virginia. Oh – paid for in part by the feds. With friends like this….
Shouldn’t hurt tourism too much – that is, if the state adopts my new ad campaign which would make a dandy new license plate slogan, too…you like? I make for you?
Street Creds
A number of people have written in to ask if the linguistically forecast major fall-off in religions might have something to do with the return (about now) of headlines like “Devil has infiltrated Vatican, says chief exorcist”?
Can’t say since any number of things might drive large numbers of people from organized religions. But, a cross-section (no pun intended!) of religious leaders behaving badly and 10,000-year (or longer) floods like the rains in Georgia last year certainly do give rise to a few questions.
When I see stories about either the current administration’s ‘faith-based initiative’ (as in this Newsweek piece) or the ongoing Texas textbook battle which argues over what should (and should not be) in social studies textbooks, I watch in semi-disbelief as events unfold…
“Terror Trend”?
The bust of Jihad Jane this week sure seems to bolster the case for those who would extend more federal controls over what happens on the Internet. Take for example this little quote out of the USA Today coverage of the story:
“Her case is the latest in a string of domestic terrorism probes in which defendants have turned to the Internet for financial, moral and operational support to plan attacks against the U.S. and its allies, court papers say.“
Demonizing the ‘net, sounds like is where this leads – and in turn that lays the groundwork for eventual licensure of net use or maybe content kontrol. Bet me?
There Must Be a Reason
…that the US Department of Education is buying 27 shotguns. Executive protection more’n likely, not unruly students..
— snip and save section —
Coping: With Pillaged Retirements
Every so often I get an email (usually surly in tone, BTW) that says something like “George, what you write about is crap because you have managed to ready yourself for retirement and the end of the world as we know it – but what about the rest of us?”
This came home to roost again this morning when someone sent me a like to the CNN/Money story this week which has the shocking (or is it?) headline that “43% have less than $10k fror retirement.”
Two ponder points to offer on this: One is about the cause of such a miserable figure and the other is on what to do about it.
The cause of the small amount of prepping for retirement is extremely simple: Americans have grown fat and lazy….they’ve given up critical thinking, inventiveness, and ingenuity at an astounding rate and have swallow the whole corpgov disingenuous lifestyle myth hook, line & sinker.
I was talking to a friend up in Pennsylvania just yesterday afternoon and the subject of gardening came up. “Too cold for us to do that up here yet…” he mentioned in passing.
I made a mental note to mention that is the kind of defeatist attitude that keeps people from realizing a higher degree of self-sufficiency and a higher level of independence from the mainstream. “What about cold frames, you have daylight up there, right?” I asked.
Don’t think my friend has read Four-Season Harvest: Organic Vegetables from Your Home Garden All Year Long yet, but since he reads the site now and then, I expect he’ll get the drift, although he’s well ahead of millions of others because he’s already cleared some land for a garden this year.
Thing is: My friend is actually doing something to retake control of his own destiny. He’s got enough sense to turn off his television and get out and do rather than sit and complain.
It doesn’t take a ‘rocket surgeon’ to start reclaiming personal destiny. You don’t need to be anti-government or even join a ’cause’ group, either. You just need a few minutes to make a list of basics of human survival and figure out how to evolve yourself into an independent position.
Take something as basic as water. Yes, we have a well. But if there was catastrophic change – say a replay of the New Madrid Earthquake, would the well survive? Maybe not. But, odds are very good that at least one of the 55-gallon water barrels would make it through. And once there, whatever is left of a roof could be made into a water catchment system.
But how many people think about that?
The roof on our home was put on in 1989…so it’s getting on time to replace it. So what drives the decision on materials? Rather than put on a new roof of fiberglass shingles, we’ll be putting on a metal roof this summer and with new metal gutters, it ought to provide more water than we could ever realistically use. We get around 40″ of rain a year here, so the area 30 feet by 60 feet should produce….nope. not going to tell you. You have enough math to be able to figure that out…I hope!
Point is that even a simple decision (“Which roof material?”) can be turned into part of an overall strategy toward self-reliance at virtually no cost.
Same thing with gardening. You’d be amazed at how much food can be grown indoors behind sliding glass doors and picture windows. But how many people turn off the television set long enough to even put in a $20 herb garden in the kitchen window? Almost none.
I can’t think of a better time of year than…oh…now, to turn off the television and get creative about at least three basics in life: Food, Water, ands Clothing.
—
My particular slant on “How to Retire” has been carved out of life experience which didn’t make me ‘rich”. So we bought a small place with a mobile/modular on it that we could afford.
We deliberating under spent so that we would not be as beholden to the Debt Monster. I do most of the work around here (Panama Bates is visiting and working on goat fencing, though) and although I might hire local folks which keeps the money in the community, the idea is that we life below our income (not above) and have done so for some period of time.
The ‘earnings’ if you think of it that way pile up. When we get to retirement – if there really is such a time – our monthly “nut” will be next to zero, except for electricity and I’m even working on that one.
My point is not to say “Look what I did” but rather to say “Look what you can do!” You can learn almost anything in an hour (or less) if you use that “Recipe Method of Learning” I’m so fond of. You can scrounge old plastic buckets to do some ‘condo farming’ and you can slowly evolve a 3-4 week ‘cushion’ of canned goods and dry staples in the home larder.
Not all that tough, is it?
Retirement is a somewhat modern concept and don’t tell too many people this because it’s dangerous to runaway financial planing. But what if Buckminster Fuller was right when he said something to the effect that “Wealth is how long you have assured your long-term survivability.”
In other words, if you don’t have ‘money’ with which to retire, you have something much more valuable: A brain that can be turned on and come up with creative ways to ‘work around’ the problem of paper. What does paper buy? Water? Food? Light & heat? Clothing?
One of my personal projects this year is learning to sew. May not be particularly graceful looking, but clothing to cover and protection ain’t that difficult. Fashion & bling? I could care. But basic clothing? How to make a pair of gloves out of an animal skin? Useful stuff that. All readily learnable in nice recipe-sized bites: Pattern-making, fabric layout & cutting, stitching…all nice bite-sized morsels of brain food resulting in long-term useable skills and that’s part of mastery of the physical realm.
I’ll step down from the soap box now after leaving one parting thought:
Do you bet on paper or bet on brains for retirement? And, are you investing in either today?
Down at the WuJo: Snow Circles?
This makes perfect sense especially since this story has nothing to do with Washington where nothing makes sense anyways…;-) But after all the reading I’ve done on Crop Circles, I must be living under a rock because I had never heard of snow circles until this morning when a reader brought it to my attention.
The story has been around since December on the BLT Research Team site, but I hadn’t been aware of it.
No, the patterns weren’t yellow-tinged.
Around the Ranch: Name That Goat
Several readers have sent in some clever names for the newly-arrived goats that hatched this week. I told you earlier this week that three had shown up promoting one male reader to suggest if they were all females to name them Gina, Lolla, and Bridgetta…and you thought my humor was bad?
Another suggested April, May, and June. We’ll see about July. One of the boys will have to be named Rahm to counterbalance Dick Chinney…as they seem cut from the same cloth.
Fortunately, we now have even more to name…another pair was born yesterday so the herd is now approaching 30.
—
I used to think that goats were just ‘dumb animals’. But, then I got to thinking about Dick Chinney surrounded by 20 odd females with little to do but sniff flanks and graze.
Humans do the same thing, but in a fraction of the time. Maybe goats aren’t as dumb as I used to think. They don’t bring me breakfast, now, do they?
—
Send your comments to george@ure.net
Shop Till You Drop Department:
Peoplenomics This Week
When Are We In A Depression?
Although I’ve been writing about the emergence of the Second Depression for more than 10-years, it wasn’t until the housing bubble started to implode that people started to admit in some number that maybe I wasn’t completely nuts. Still, if you were to go out on the streets of America, I doubt that more than 1% of the population would admit it, even now that this is a Depression. Still, the evidence continues to mount for those with ‘ears to hear and eyes to see…” This week, a few data points as we arrive at a key inflection point over the next two weeks.
More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE
Need Logon Assistance? Click here.
Cookie Video
The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don’t usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
http://www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive ‘non-browser specific’ cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
“Live on $10,000″ A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn’t, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book “How to Live on #10,000 a Year…or less!”
It’s an automatic download. It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called “How to Build Anything” should instill confidence if you’ve never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too….. Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics
My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It’s an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few ‘dollar stores’ and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space – like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It’s just $10 bucks here…
Pass It On
A different take on things – that’s what you’ll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your ‘worst enemies’. Like they say in Burbank, “Ain’t no such thing as bad press…”
—-
Last week’s report is here. For back issues of this site, click here.
Wednesday March 10, 2009