UrbanSurvival

 Reader note: Still working on pesky graphics issues!

About here, Peoplenomics readers will be saying “Oh…got’cha…” on my latest move of both nickels in markets yesterday morning.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and other indices were up smartly in the preopen due to the bond sales in Europe.

 

If you’re trying to figure the “long-chain molecule” I think it may go something like this:  Rates going up in EU bond sales increases the inflation expectations which, in turn, increase the price of gold, silver, oil, and other commodities and this them makes fractions of ownership in American companies look like they may go up, too…and a rally is what ensues.  Which I think is where we are this morning, except that leads to…

 

Inflation Outlook

Consumer price index report out this morning is stuck on “no movement:”

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index, which had risen in each of the three previous months, declined in April on a seasonally adjusted basis and offset increases in the other major indexes. The gasoline index fell 2.6 percent in April and accounted for most of the decline in energy, though the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil decreased as well. The food index rose in April as five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March. Increases in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, and apparel all contributed significantly to the April increase.

The 12-month change in the index for all items was 2.3 percent in April, the lowest figure since February 2011. The index for all items less food and energy also increased 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. This is the first time since October 2009 that the 12-month all items change has not exceeded the 12-month change for all items less food and energy. The food index has risen 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index has risen 0.9 percent.

I’ve always wondered why “seasonal adjustments” would matter in year-on-year numbers…I mean wouldn’t one summer be pretty much like another…so what’s to adjust?  See?  This is why I can’t get a high paid government job:  I ask the wrong questions.

 

Spending Data

Even more interesting:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $408.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) above April 2011. Total sales for the February through April 2012 period were up 6.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2012 percent change was revised from 0.8 percent (±0.5) to 0.7 percent (±0.3%).

 

Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from March 2012 and 6.1 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 11.0 percent (±3.1%) from April 2011 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 10.3 percent (±2.8%) from last year.

But I ask:  Does this look like a recovery?

 

 

Obviously, I need to get my eyes checked again.

 

Pervert

It’s refreshing not to be on the receiving end of such labeling, for a change.  Seems Rebekah Brooks (former Murdoch employee) is to be charged (along with hubby) for “perverting the course of justice…”

America Going to Pot

Might want to sign up to volunteer next time a Minnesota law enforcement training program is held…seems they were giving pot to a volunteer to see what their reactions would be.  Volunteers?  Show of hands?

Paranoia Meds?

A lot of people have asked me if I think there’s anything to a  supposed DHS whistleblower claiming a Reichstag type event is in the planning stage in order to enact martial law in the US.

Let us know how the Secret Service interview goes.

Digital Wallet

Our Canadian news analyst has been watching the wallet lately:

A CBC report notes that the Canadian Bankers Association has rolled out proposals for a mobile payment system integrated into cellphones. It seems the Federal Government’s 2011 “Task Force for the Payments System Review” has offered impetus.

Digital wallets would be the next Big Thing…except for the problem an increasing number of us don’t have anything to put in them.

Voting Day

In Nebraska.  Our reader there needed reminding. Texans go to the polls on May 29th…two weeks.

More after this:

 

 Had an interesting email come in while we were on the road detailing a fine encounter with the WuJo – and since I am now digging through most of the pile of undone stuff around here, pleased to share it…

“George, last Wednesday I had a very interesting experience. I had an interview at 1pm in Louisville which is about an hour and twenty minutes from my home in Lexington. Got totally ready and went to walk out the door at 11:30 so I would definitely be there on time and I couldn’t find my keys. I looked everywhere and ripped up my room and that usually spots where my keys would be. My roommate was home and as he heard me freaking out he joined in the search and we couldn’t find them; oh and I stupidly lost my spare key years ago and hadn’t gotten another made.

Well, it just so happens that I had parked in my driveway behind my roommates car (bc I knew I would be the first to leave the next day), so I couldn’t use his car to drive. Luckily his girlfriend, who lives directly in the house across the street, was off work that day and let me take her car. I drove very fast and made it on time to the interview.

Here is where it gets very strange. My roommate and I have had small experiences of things disappearing and appearing so neither of us is new to this.

After I got home Wednesday afternoon I searched every square inch of the house inside and looked outside and in the car; I searched every drawer, cabinet, inside all my clothes, went through the trash, in every piece of furniture, etc., in order to establish that they no longer existed at my residence – they were not there, anywhere.

Well, the next day I was going to have to go to the DMV to get a copy of my title (bc mine is locked inside the glove compartment) and then go to the dealership to get a copy of the key made.

About 30 minutes before I was to do all this, my roommate went over to his girlfriends house to let out her dogs while she was at work, and he finds my keys sitting on her coffee table. He tells me they had been playing Jinga on her coffee table the night before and obviously they were not there.

Furthermore, his girlfriend said that she had cleaned her house on Wednesday and she of course had not seen the keys. Nor did she notice the keys on the coffee table when she left for work Thursday morning.

So, to date, that is definitely the strangest disappearing act I’ve experienced! “

Wow…this is a weird one.  Assuming you haven’t been over to the GF’s house lately (and impaired to the point of not remembering which doesn’t seem likely, we’d have to put this one done in the WuJo category for sure.

It does bring up an interesting question, however:  What direction is her house from yours?  If it was due West or East, then it would lead down one path of theorizing that the keys (at yourt house) somehow followed a male non-owner in some kind of field space, over to the GF’s house and materialized in his vicinity there, not realizing that it/they had become confused and attached to the same field.

In order for this to work out, the nonmaterial aspect of the keys would have to be easily confused.  So another good question is how close (in terms of emotional/responses, physical, intellectual, tastes in GF’s) are you and your roommate?

You might want to read a bit on morphogenetic fields (biology) and as yourself  a question like this:  “If morphogenetic fields are real in biology, is it possible that (as any shaman will tell you) seemingly inert objects can have some kind of ultra low-level sentience imprinted on them, such that they appear as field objects around strongly sentient beings?”

Or, to launch of Rupert Sheldrake’s work in this area and in particular his new work The Science Delusion. ($35 Amazon).

If you read this one, and his 2009 Morphic Resonance: The Nature of Formative Causation  ($13 Amazon) which “the British journal Nature called “the best candidate for burning there has been for many years,” you quickly find yourself slipping into the world of wizards, magic (especially ritual magic) and that’s right next to to the secret society/sacrificers on the one hand, and the shamanistic masters of intending (think Castaneda here) on the other.

There’s a case to be made that if you were to toss the “weak force” of physics and the science of intent into the blender, you could get a Sheldrake-type world where everything is a field more so than a “hard thing” and in some works of magic, things (and demons) can “attached” to the ethereal body of a human.  (It’s all over religious texts – explaining much of how miracles work – and in that context an attachment to a persons ethereal body would be a possession.  And that gets us into the realm of why alcoholic beverages are called “spirits” and a who long discussion we don’t have time for this morning…)

But on a practical note, this Ure-after-Sheldrake world would provide for the “confusion of things” which could explain how they pop into (and out of) reality in the vicinity of their “owner” except, when as we’re talking about here, there may be so many similarities between our key victim and his roommate that the key energy got confused and attached to an etheric body of similar age, sex, height, weight, emotional construct and once at the GF’s house simply materialized in that vicinity confused by the local energy.

So is this a very non-traditional way of thinking?  Yes, of course.  But it’s also why while Clif has been working on the new web bot run (and boat building) that I’ve been “willing” him to work more on his book about how the materium works.

To be sure, there’re plenty of hints popping out: The Source Field Investigations: The Hidden Science and Lost Civilizations Behind the 2012 Prophecies is a good overview of the “field” work as is Lynn McTaggart’s delectable The Field: The Quest for the Secret Force of the Universe.

If someone serious about the subject matter we to ask me to design a WuJo curriculum, it might be The Field, Source Field Investigations, Morphic Resonance, Science of Delusion, and then some of the dustier parts of the bookshelf, including some arcane works like A Treatise on Cosmic Fire along with a deep study of alchemy and will power.

But is such a deep study of WuJo worth it?  Depends how you take Plato’s allegory of The Cave wherein:

“Plato lets Socrates describe a group of people who have lived chained to the wall of a cave all of their lives, facing a blank wall. The people watch shadows projected on the wall by things passing in front of a fire behind them, and begin to ascribe forms to these shadows. According to Plato’s Socrates, the shadows are as close as the prisoners get to viewing reality. He then explains how the philosopher is like a prisoner who is freed from the cave and comes to understand that the shadows on the wall do not make up reality at all, as he can perceive the true form of reality rather than the mere shadows seen by the prisoners.

And to save you some time, those small critters marching behind us (projecting out our reality onto the cave wall) are the archetypes which occasionally need a good thrashing with the introspection stick (join your local Jungian Society) to be kept in line and projecting outward the “right stuff.”

Asking questions like “Is it all archetypes, fields, particle physics, and so forth?” is widely entertaining but can become absorptive to the point of being mental masturbation.

Which is why the Buddhist approach may be attractive – do work, carry water and just go with the flow – immerse – the watching of things – the flow – may be one of the more productive outlooks since the membership tariffs and mental processor loads are low which leaves time for the rest of life.

Which seems to circle back to “How’d the keys get there?”

Counterpoint:  The Canadian Error

Had a very good counterpoint come in to the Canadian fellow’s note from Monday:

“Hi George,

I’ve been reading your blog for a couple of years now and had always thought that, though you might be misguided on some things, you were never wont to write opinions or post other’s opinions which were entirely erroneous. Today, your blog contained a letter from an exceptionally misinformed fellow Canadian which reeks of racism, among other things. I was quite disappointed in your lack of judgement in posting his hateful letter. Just so you know which letter I am referring to and which part of it I find offensive here is the verbatim quote:

“The obvious loss of moral fiber within society is surely creating visible cracks in your country, which is now seen as weak by the middle eastern people, who are using your politically correct immigration laws to gently invade your country and prepare for the rise and takeover of Islam and Sharia. This has been announced and publicized by members of the Islamic community around the world, but somehow doesn’t get much mention in the USA. Islam is in the process of trying to take over the world, and looking in from where I am, nobody seems to care.”

I would ask this person the following questions:

Who owns the media which has planted these erroneous ideas into his mind? Which Muslim countries have invaded a Western nation? I’ve never heard of any but then again, maybe he has more inside information. How many Muslim countries have the Western powers invaded lately? Why are we invading Muslim countries? And, as you always say, George, if you follow the money….who is benefitting from these invasions. Muslims? (Not!!!!) Who owns the banks which fund Western invasions of Muslim countries?

If he is suggesting that a majority of Westerners would adopt Islam as a religion, isn’t freedom of religion one of the principles upon which the United States of America was founded?

I find it unfortunate that so many individuals rely upon the mainstream media to shape their perception of this sorry world. You, George, are a little more realistic but posting this guy’s letter today was not very helpful, to say the least. These misinformed individuals are the very ones who look the other way and even feel self righteous when hundreds of thousands of innocent people are killed in criminal wars initiated by the West. And then they have the gall to think that those innocent people were killed so that our homeland is “safer”. Truly deluded thinking!

I do hope you will not ignore posting a correction to the comments you posted today…..an apology to the Muslim communities would be nice.”

No. The words of the Canadian reader are not mine to apologize for.  I published his note as it reflects one side of a very important issue, just as this morning’s counterpoint represents the other view.

As I am sure you are aware, wars are fought at many levels and in case you have forgotten what’s we’re doing in the sandbox, zakat charged by the Taliban on opium is a serious and ongoing problem for the World and I don’t read too much about the Muslim community denouncing the Taliban, though admittedly I haven’t researched it too closely.  A fuller discussion of the subject may be found in “How Opium Profits the Taliban.”

I’d also note in passing, that Islam does have, in its history, large scale wars of conquest, although formal US operations of today are admittedly more current, they are in size much smaller proportionate to population.  And it can certainly be argued that the Crusades of the 11th-13th centuries were a delayed reaction (payback) to these earlier wars of conquest.

While I’m none-too-pleased with US conduct in many respects, a read of the history of the scimitar reveals its roots were not in the USA and on a per capita (decapita?) basis, it was one of histories most horrific inventions.  All the parties, seems to me, have blood on their hands, so who is fit to lead?

Has there been universal Muslim outrage that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, too?   Renunciation of states not signing the nonproliferation treaty?  (*Including Israel, btw.) Sorry….who’s fit to lead…seriously!

Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com

The Coward’s Guide to Tough Markets

America is in tough times – and they are about to get worse, despite all the hype and campaign promises that one can hear in the run-up to the elections.  But the fact is that although times are tough there are still plenty of opportunities to preserve capital – and maybe even make a buck or two – by playing the markets (and that includes retirement funds) smart.  This morning we’ll offer some thoughts on the coming decision point for markets as we briefly review Henry George’s way of seeing things and how that matters in today’s world.  First, though, a few overnight headlines…

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 Safer Computing:  Swearing Off Cookies

It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.

To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.

I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy – and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:

• You need an active cookie manager – because sites you visit can put small bits of code on your computer and some of these are designed for Flash, have no expiration, and can really bugger-up the computing experience.  This part gets handled by Maxa Labs’ product which on my system says 184,380 cookies have been removed, 73,881 “web bugs” which can track movement from site to site and such, and I have only 10-active cookies.

• Second thing you need is a good antivirus program – and I happen to really like Avira’s Antivir pro.

• Then you need to deal with Malware  so for this Malware bytes is updated and run daily.

• And last, though certainly not least is the firewall and the one in Win 7 works fine.

Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual – Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.

Toss in a good bit of common sense (example:  Don’t open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet’s actually a useful tool.

“Live on $10,000″ A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn’t, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book “How to Live on $10,000 a Year…or less!”

It’s an automatic download.  It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called “How to Build Anything” should instill confidence if you’ve never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too…..  Click here for the index and details.

Do Tell

Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send ‘em a short email.  – Thanks!

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Last week’s report is always here.

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Monday May 14, 2012

 

 

As I mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers a week or so back, one of the thoughts that crossed my mind while sitting under an old oak tree at the US Civil War Memorial in Vicksburg, MS was that it takes it a really, really big issue to divide a country against itself.  And I wondered then whether gay rights might be such an issue.  It’s emotionally hot – feelings run deep – and that makes it something easily manipulated by amoral marketers on both sides of the political trough.

It’s worth mentioning the concern again this morning since over the weekend, Newsweek came out with a cover picture of president Obama complete with a rainbow-colored “halo” and the caption lower left “The First Gay President” although many news outfits are asking whether that’s quite accurate.

Still, as a half-century viewer of politics in America, there aren’t too many things that could divide us against ourselves, though gay rights may have that potential, especially in the deep South where we’ve been traveling lately.

True, there’s a new Gallup Poll out thisi morning that says the majority of Americans have settled on gay/lesbian rights as the “new normal.”  But I’d wager a beer (or so) that if one were to overlay a “heat map” on the issue of gay rights today, the geographical similarity to the Civil War might become apparent.

And politics being the crass business of twisting voter’s emotions this way and that, don’t be surprised to see this become one of the few polarizing issues as we get deeper into the silly season which has the potential to trump the economy.

Depressing 2nd Depression Notes

We’ve been chronicling this “stealth Depression” since 1997 when it became obvious that we were on an unsustainable path.  (*See chart in the Coping section which follows the news part of this report.)  So it really comes as no surprise to see the headlines that California is now underwater to the tune of $16-billion thanks to too much government, failing pension returns, and the list goes on.

Alas!  When some calls this the worst recession since the 1930′s they reveal two important facts:  a) They haven’t been reading this site over the past 15-years where I’ve been something of a broken record on this stuff.  But the second thing they reveal (b)) is that they have no grasp of economic history.

So why are they holding office?

Tanks for Voting, Though

We can help but notice the uneasy calm out of the former Soviet Union (FSU) where Vlad Putin got out the tanks to send a message to Russian voters last week:  I’m back and in charge.

What’s the old saying?  Tigers don’t change their stripes often?  Or, maybe it’s that one-time KGB strongmen didn’t keep their roles in the New Russia by playing namby-pamby Mr. Nice.  Same power trippers, new packaging.

Spain Yields

The interest paid by Spain to borrow billions this morning has gone up a bit.  This as Europe wonders if Greece will split the sheets with the EU and strategists wonder how much dough Spain and the other basically broke EU members are going to cost to paper-over.

Dimon’s Were Forever

…until the $2-billion blow-up over Thursday and Friday of last week.  Fast-forward to this morning and several excecs are out and the open question seems to be whether this was a big enough spark to cause an explosion (albeit in slow-motion) of the derivatives bubble.  JPMorgan’s got something around $71-trillion of notional value.  True, only a small fraction of that could ever be realized (in theory, notes Ures truly nervously).  Even so, that’s about 5-times the entire US Gross Domestic Product and how big a fraction does that have to be in order to cause panic in markets?

Freebie NBC Marketing Idea

Speaking of Mr. Dimon, here’s a new marketing name for their Meet the Press show.  How about “Meet Depressed?”

Kicking Down Markets

So between the Russians snubbing the G8 meetings, the higher bond yileds out of Spain/Europe, the further collapse of gold by almost $20-bucks, the Newsweek cover, and trading mess at JPMorgan, what will markets worry about next now that a downside move of 1% is possible in today’s trading, based on the futures?

Glad you asked.

Retail sales and the consumer price index come out tomorrow and that has the potential to drive the US markets down to the 1,325 (or lower) target we’ve been patiently waiting for.

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Say, you don’t think ex-KGB’er Vlad knows something in advance, do you?

Surveillance State

Don’t know how many people picked up the story last week of a “radioactive man” being pulled over by a state trooper in Connecticut?  Who knew staters were carrying radiation detectors good enough to catch a passing vehicle’s occupant?  That there is some good technology…but it does raise questions for people having medical work done.  Might want to get a hall pass from the doc…

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Speaking of the long arm of the law – you don’t want to have overdue books since there’s a report out of Freeport PA by the CBS affil in Pittsburgh that the cops got called out to collect overdue books from a four-year old.

Wonder if a dozen would bring out a swat team?

Junk Food: Timing is Everything

In case you’re bothered by the “Infographic:  When the lights go out, the world eats junk” article here, I’m pleased to offer a free solution the problem of night time munchies:  Go to bed earlier, get some sleep and maintain high energy.

Besides, that will leave more chips and nibbles for me…

More after this:

    

Got this pretty good email from a reader on the Far Side (or the border with Canada) which you might enjoy.

You’re not going to like this. The reason you won’t like it is that you are on the inside and do not see what the rest of us see regularly.

I am next door in Canada. We are your good friend and we like you. Yep, someone really IS on your side. I am 67 years old.

For most of my life I have listened to Americans being told they are part of the ‘greatest country in the world’. Over and over again, all your life, you have been told how wonderful you are.

Well, (Take a deep breath here) you were but, you seem to be on the way out. We are all humans.

Other countries have risen to prominence over the centuries and they have all faded (Greece comes to mind along with Rome et al). To this day I see, on U.S. channels, ‘how we won WWII’ movies and documentaries. But, your movie making propagandists seem to forget Britain, France, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, China and some I may have forgotten were also there.

We, also all poured our best young men and women into that one. I thank God my Dad, a Wireless Air Gunner, survived.

America is not the country it was after WWII. It seems to be poorly led and fading. Just as civilizations of power did before America’s rise, (You’re still up there, but wobbling) more and more laws, rules and easements are removing your balls and abilities.

The obvious loss of moral fiber within society is surely creating visible cracks in your country, which is now seen as weak by the middle eastern people, who are using your politically correct immigration laws to gently invade your country and prepare for the rise and takeover of Islam and Sharia.

This has been announced and publicized by members of the Islamic community around the world, but somehow doesn’t get much mention in the USA. Islam is in the process of trying to take over the world, and looking in from where I am, nobody seems to care.

And so American, what will you do? Will you lie down and let the world walk in and take your country? [I am not advocating hate or violence here, but instead, a rebuilding]

The rebuilding starts with you, at home, practicing and teaching your children morals, fairness and integrity. That hard work pays off with a better life. That charity is something good. Lending a helping hand to your neighbor builds friendship and trust. This then is what America was and can be again, but you must build and maintain it.

Never forget: You aren’t the only beacon of freedom in this world, but you are the brightest and we stand at your side.

That’s both comforting but disturbing to read in black and white, isn’t it?

As long as we’re in Monday morning reality checks, how about this one…

“George,

The movie is the message?

Have you seen “Atlas Shrugged Part 1″? The opening scene is the year 2016, DOW under 4,000, Depression, and gas at $37.50 a gallon.

The movie was a silent release, short lived… But boy oh boy if the movie is the message from a visual cue to put a modern twist on an old book it sure leads on to ponder.

Especially since I subscribe to this theory to some degree that the movie is the message also. I was waiting for something like the “Adjustment Bureau” to come out for a long time and I don’t happen to think all of the Sci-Fi blockbusters are completely made up. I think they are taken from some of the ancient texts from India and South East Asia where the whole notion of life here beginning out there is a staple I the religion.

But the DOW being below 4K was in another movie recently besides Atlas Shrugged Part 1, but I can’t think of the name of it right now.

Oh and I wrote to you last year when I had broke even. Well I went and got all positive again and the individual stocks I picked have handed me my ass and I am back to being in the hole massively.

I don’t agree with everything on the website www.senseoncents.com  but he had a small write up a little while ago about how more and more people are deciding to not play ball and leave the market all together. And for once… I am finally feeling that way. I mean hell, the whole market can’t be up because of tablets and Smartphone’s. That’s just plain old’ silliness and those who really manufacture things are whipsawed all over the place (DE, CAT, F, GM, etc.) including the material stocks who provide the raw ingredients (FCX, CLF, Etc.).

This all smells of total bullshit AGAIN even though we are over 13K in the DOW and 1400 on the S&P. When Doug Kass is starting to say the road ahead is up I really start to wonder.

So pissed at myself right now for being positive and getting whacked hard. FCX, DECK, CY, and CLF come to mid of recent pain.

Thanks for all your work.”

About here, I will roll out the whole (ugly) truth of how lifestyle “feels” to us average ‘Mericans right now:  Take the ratio of the S&P by the M2 money supply and this is what the BOHICA feels like, despite all the crap otherwished by DC’ites:

This chart says it all:  Shows you how since the “Roaring Twenties” analog (1998 minicrash to the 2000 market highs) America is replaying the Great Depression but with sand in our eyes, manufactured and thrown by people we (quite mistakenly) trusted to do the right thing.

They haven’t, so our debt load is unsustainable, and the global outcome is now inevitable, sorry, it’s just not apparent to most folks.

I’m sure if you’d asked the average Roman about the collapse of Rome at the time they wouldn’t have be able to articulate it, either.

The Future “Road to Riches”

Elaine and I aren’t ready to move into buying up a string of rental houses yet, but when we get further down the flush (when the market is down to the Dow 4,400 area (or lower, perhaps Dow 780 in 2015/2016 or in there) it will be the best time every to buy rental properties.  Already, you can find deals where a home can be picked up from banksters who don’t manage homes any better than they do risk or bonuses, cheap enough to cash flow neutral from the get-go.

A reader noted a while back:

“You are totally correct that owning rental housing is the best way to get rich. In my 43 plus years in this business I have literally seen hundreds of people do it. However, I have seen hundreds fail at it, including myself. Like most endeavors it takes a particular set of manual and, more importantly, dealing with renter skills. The latter which I apparently lack. The best two days of my life were when I got rid of my last rental and my ex-wife.”

That chart above may come down even lower than it was in the 1980′s – and if it does, that might be a reasonable time for young people to get into housing again.  It’s the advice I’m giving my kids:  Be saving up for a down payment now.

Fad Watch

Then there’s this reader question:

“morning George. How will facebook make money? Do people actually click on these ads they see in any meaningful amounts? Who are these people and can they be counted on to continue clicking on ads.

I mean I dont get it. Back in the day this thing called google came about. I was like how can that make money who would invest in that. well I wonder an I wrong again with this facebook deal.

with face book I dont care if the sun is shining and the birds are chirping or what sally wore for work or what jim found while walking down the street. I dont care.

Who clicks on these damed ads I dont get it.

im saying fb is a fad and wil be gone in a short time. ofc I wrong about google”

I’ve been asking myself that, too.  On the ad response question, serious marketing gurus (like the guy I shave in the morning) plan on 1/2 to 1.2% click-throughs, so yes, lots of people click.  Big money – BIG.

But the strategic question is this:  Is the whole social networking “thing” a fad?  We you old enough to remember the CD Radio craze?  Go here and click down to ” Web = CB Radio:  It’s just a recipe” for details.

That’s what I’m better on in the long term.  All I figure I have to do is plot the ascension of FB and other socials and then lay in long-term shorts and count the money.  All fads and manias run their course.  You don’t have to be a genius picking out the up and comers.  All you need to do is spot the biggies and then short ‘em on the way down.

Yeah, simple, huh?  But who was warning you (and everyone else I know) about the dangers of the housing bubble from 2002 when people looked at me like I had two heads?  No one wants to think a fad is over – people fall in love with positions – and it’s as true with gold, housing, or the Iraqi Dinar scam.  It’s how the  Ponzi’s and the Madoff’s of the world constant come and go.

Of course you know all that, but what we don’t know is what WuJo reports we’ll have tomorrow or what the CPI fairytale will be, so see you for more coffee, fun, sport, and amusement tomorrow!

As one reader noted about our reports (while noting that as the People’s Economist this might apply to me…):

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”

And with six-sigma confidence, at that.

Write when you break even: george@ure.net

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Of Interest to Readers:

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The Coward’s Guide to Tough Markets

America is in tough times – and they are about to get worse, despite all the hype and campaign promises that one can hear in the run-up to the elections.  But the fact is that although times are tough there are still plenty of opportunities to preserve capital – and maybe even make a buck or two – by playing the markets (and that includes retirement funds) smart.  This morning we’ll offer some thoughts on the coming decision point for markets as we briefly review Henry George’s way of seeing things and how that matters in today’s world.  First, though, a few overnight headlines…

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Safer Computing:  Swearing Off Cookies

It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.

To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.

I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy – and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:

• You need an active cookie manager – because sites you visit can put small bits of code on your computer and some of these are designed for Flash, have no expiration, and can really bugger-up the computing experience.  This part gets handled by Maxa Labs’ product which on my system says 184,380 cookies have been removed, 73,881 “web bugs” which can track movement from site to site and such, and I have only 10-active cookies.
• Second thing you need is a good antivirus program – and I happen to really like Avira’s Antivir pro.
• Then you need to deal with Malware  so for this Malware bytes is updated and run daily.
• And last, though certainly not least is the firewall and the one in Win 7 works fine.

Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual – Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.

Toss in a good bit of common sense (example:  Don’t open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet’s actually a useful tool.

“Live on $10,000″ A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn’t, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book “How to Live on $10,000 a Year…or less!”

It’s an automatic download.  It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called “How to Build Anything” should instill confidence if you’ve never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too…..  Click here for the index and details.

Do Tell

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Last week’s report is always here.

We’ll see if this works now…

Yep – seems to so we should be able to get back to having pictures and graphics make sense…see you tomorrow if you read Peoplenomics or Monday if not – have a great weekend while I continue to dig out from computer issues and what not…

Word is coming out this morning (and it may impact markets going into the weekend) that mega-bank JPMorgan was hit for $2-billion in trading losses over the last six-weeks or so.

The studious news-watcher will start by looking at some of the company’s financial numbers which Yahoo serves up over here.

A quick review suggests that the company’s $15.1 billion of “enterprise value” will drop to $13-billion, and since market capitalization is has been running (very roughly) 10.3 times market cap, we would expect that multiplier to come down to less than 10 – I could toss 8 or 9 out as wildly thrown darts – market cap might come down to the $10.5 billion kind of area, or a stock price decline of 30-35%.

At least one reader is a little suspicious of the “mistakes” claim: “JPM traders are not dumb – a loss that big seems unlikely to have “just happened”. ‘Course, just could be my paranoia streak showing…“  While “mistakes” sounds plausible, doesn’t seem too terribly likely.  So, where’d the money go?  Not that the feds will go looking, anymore than they went after MF Global.  I mean it is and election year, right?  Money just seems to get antsy in here…

Not that I’d trade such thoughts…but if the S&P puts in a short-term low next week, another wild-eyed though, then call options from any panic low over this internal blunder might be interesting.  What’s the old saying?  “Buy when there’s blood running in the streets?”

France:  Bad Goes to Worse

Francois Hollande, new incoming president of France, is boning outgoing prez Sarkozy for underplaying the seriousness of the French budget mess.  The French are as good at finance as I am at running triathlons:  Not especially.

Producer Prices

The monthly report on Producer Prices is always as much fun to read as, say, a book on accounting practices.  Not too terribly exciting.  Still, there are some folks who think the indices have predictive value about inflation or deflation to come, since the finished goods costs are close to what end merchants pay for stock.

If you think of it as a big pipe, you can see it:  One end of the pipe has the raw materials going into it:  Part way down the pipe are things like sub-assemblies and oil refinery intermediates, and the end of the pipe that plugs in to the retailing industry is where finished goods come out.  Got the picture?  OK, here’s the data:

The Producer Price Index for finished goods fell 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods were unchanged in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods decreased 0.5 percent in April, and the crude goods index moved down 4.4 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 1.9 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the seventh straight month of slowing year-over-year increases following a 7.0-percent rise for the 12 months ended September 2011.

And why do you suppose this return to deflationary outlook is at hand?  A quick check of the most recent three months of M2 money-printing at the Fed shows the money supply at that level – which was pumped up 9.8% in the past year was only increased at an annual rate of 4% in the most recent three months.  Makes the case, I think, that deflation is still about and until some of the money comes roaring out of the dead pools of money (locked away doing not much of anything, causing velocity of money to plummet) then deflation is here for a while more and thus out go the dreams of those who sleep with gold under their pillows.

Crude goods down 4.4 while M2 is up 4% annualized, help me here, what’s that?”  8.4% deflation annualized?  Just looking at it this way…  Futures pointed to a downward end to the week.  With prices collapsing, why rally?

A lot of the producer price information is not very sexy.  The sexy number comes next Tuesday when the Consumer Price Index comes along, but now and then the Produce Prices give a hint.  But barely often enough to keep me awake writing the details down.  Next?

War in the Pacific

But only a war of words – for now:  China and the Philippines are edging closer and closer to conflict over disputed territorial islands in the South China Sea.  Too early in the day to be learning to spell the Huangyan Islands, so calling the area “them islands” may crop up here once in a while.

For cross-referencing, see Scarborough Shoal in Wikipedia.  Hmmm… China wants it, Taiwan wants it, and the Philippines sort of has it.  China wants a one-on-one bully session, while the Filipinos are holding out for international mediation.

Dolphin Watch

Important strategic assessment from one of our best and brightest military analyst contributors who must remain un-named:

Beware This Dolphin

Hi George,

There are several significant items of interest converging in the Cradle of Destruction (FKA the Cradle of Civilization).

First, a new class of Dolphin sub is being added to the existing fleet of three, which are also undergoing extensive refurbishments. This will equip Israel a fleet of six stealthy subs with long patrol times.

Second, the new unity government Benjamin Netanyahu formed with Kadima party leader Shaul Mofaz eliminates the need for September elections, and gives the Jewish state the political support necessary to act “at any time” against Iran or any other perceived threat to national security.

This rapid alliance of strange political bedfellows inside Israel has the Obama administration sweating BBs, as this article aptly notes:

Third, add to the mix Hamas’ Gaza leader, Ismail Haniyeh, is openly claiming his group will not go to war against Israel should they attack Iran:

Fourth, an Iranian naval commander is expressing concern over Persian Gulf states agreeing to participate in a regional missile shield, going so far as to say such participation joins a US-Israeli plot:

Fifth, the US House approved $1 billion for Israel’s anti-missile Arrow 3.

Last, the US Navy is procuring underwater, mine destroying UAVs.

Things could ‘pop’ anytime. Stand ready, and batten down your hatches matey!

Only questions is which side of the Israel elections in September. Another source – outside Washington a good distance echoes the concern recently: “Might be time to check the batteries in the radiation meter…”

Although pending problems at Fukushima make that a redundant exercise.

Sun Watching: Pins and Needles

An eye to the future along in here seems warranted, since whenever I get a number of different sources pointing in the same general direction around a story, I tend to watch closely.

The Sun’s activity is one such story.

Starting from the beginning, I assume you know from reading/following Clif’s work on the web bot project (New Report is due out (revised) on or before June .  (See his notes about radiation headlines expected around July 10 though!).

In his work, the concept of sun disease has been around since 1997/1998…so I count that as data #1.

The second data point is the body of science that suggests that while the Sun builds to its peak  of flare risk in early 2013 (just as we start the backside of cycle 24), here’s where we were late Thursday:

NOAA Region 1476 remains eruptive, producing occasional Radio Blackouts over the past 24 hours. The largest event was an R2 (Moderate) at 0418UTC (00:18 a.m. EDT) today, May 10. There are indications of a CME as part of that event, analysis now occurring. More Radio Blackouts expected today, watch here for the latest.

Then there’s the latest from 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl:

“Hi George

Maybe it is interesting to publish the whole calculations….

X5+ POTENTIAL!

As predicted…. The Egyptians and Maya used Venus as a marker for big events on the Sun…

This comes from Solen info this morning….

Region 1476 ] has a very complex magnetic delta structure in the southern part of the huge penumbra (spanning about 6 degrees latitudinally and longitudinally). There are several layers of opposite polarities in the most complex parts. The region has the potential to produce an X5+ flare.

You can find all info here:

Quadrupole Sun : Will the Poles of the Sun Switch Spectacularly on May 13 — 14 –15, 2012?

http://youtu.be/rfivk4UcTV8

Explanation

May 4 – 22, 2012: Long opposition Jupiter – Earth across the Sun starts May 4 – 5, 2012: Triple Line Up: Mars – Mercury – Venus May 5, 2012: Triple Line Up: Mercury – Earth – Saturn May 5 – 6, 2012: Conjunction Saturn – Venus and the Sun May 6, 2012: Triple Line Up: Venus – Mercury – Uranus May 7, 2012: 4 planets almost Lined Up: Uranus – Mercury – Venus – Mars May 8, 2012: Conjunction Mercury – Neptune and the Sun May 8 – 9, 2012: Triple Line Up: Mars – Mercury – Uranus Conclusion: The May 5 – 9 period has some extreme stressful configurations, that could lead to large scale effects on the Sun. If nothing happens on these dates… watch out for May 13 – 14 – 15…

Result: Big sunspot 1476 is a complex region with major polarity intermixing and several magnetic delta structures and a high probability of an X flare. However the lack of a recent opposition with Venus or Mercury made an X flare impossible… Or the Line Up from May 14 made it impossible to flare earlier….

M5.7 Flare on 5/10/2012 @ 04:18 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M4.1 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 21:05 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.8 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 14:08 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M4.7 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 12:32 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.4 Flare on 5/08/2012 @ 13:08 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.9 Flare on 5/07/2012 @ 14:31 UTC – Sunspot 1470-1471 combined – LDE lasting 2hrs

M1.3 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 17:47 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.1 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 01:18 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.3 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 23:01 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.4 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 13:23 UTC – Sunspot 1476

May 12 – 13, 2012: Opposition Jupiter – Earth across the Sun becomes strong

May 14, 2012: Triple Line Up: Saturn – Venus – Mercury

May 16, 2012: Conjunction Mercury – Uranus and the Sun

Important remarks: Like in 2011 we have… An almost Line Up of 4 planets… A conjunction with Venus before the 4 planets almost line up… A conjunction with Mercury after the 4 planets almost line up… A Triple Line Up before the 4 planets almost line up… A Triple Line Up after the 4 planets almost line up… A conjunction after the Triple Line Up Saturn – Venus – Mercury… But no opposition with Venus or Mercury…instead one with Jupiter… Just prior to the June 7, 2011 blast there were 2 Triples that we miss now… On the other hand we have 2 extra Triple Line Ups on May 4 – 5… One with Mercury and Venus in it and the other with Mercury and Saturn… In other words dangerous Triples…

Conclusion: May 13 – 14 – 15 is a candidate for extreme large scale effects on the Sun. What is extremely important is that we see the same Line Up as on On June 7, 2011. Then we saw the Biggest Blast Ever

 

June 7 – 8, 2011: Triple Line Up: Saturn – Venus – Mercury

=> May 14, 2012: Triple Line Up: Saturn – Venus – Mercury

=> December 20, 2012: Midpoint Conjunctions Saturn – Venus – Mercury and the Sun = date for the coming Super Sunstorm

 

So my BIG question: Will the Sun erupt the same way on May 13 – 14 – 15, 2012 as it did on June 7, 2011..? Or is it a warning for the Line Up at the end of this year? Or will the poles switch in a spectacular way?

Might visit Patrick’s website: linked here.

Need another point to ponder?  Ed Dames – an exceptional remote viewer – and others in that arena – have looked into the future using that technology and come up with a  “dramatic shift in global life” and seems to come from a “solar killshot.”

Where all these notions/touches of the future come together is when you carefully take the time to read the “Critical National Infrastructures Report” of the US EMP Commission - a group which has looked in great depth into the electromagnetic pulse risks faced by the USA.

Yes, it is a long report, and yes it is 208 pages and 7.2 mB worth of file.  But sometimes the future is hidden in plain sight.  The risks we face as a society may seem highest from terrorism, but is it really?

I tend not to think so.  As that chart of the S&P versus money supply clearly demonstrated earlier this week, we’re on the backside of greatness globally as humans right now.  The one unanswered question is whether compound interest, collapse of infrastructure from EMP (manmade or solar-driven), peak oil, a bio-terror pandemic later this year, or simply collapse from overpopulation shows up first.

It’s a question which looms large with the weekend upon us again:  Some people will no doubt toss in the towel, but others of us will get out and mow the yard anyway.  Don’t want the future to arrive at an unkempt yard.

More after this:

The first topic of thinkversation this morning has to do with how people select what to worry about.  Worries are ugly little f***ers that beset and besiege everyone, big. rich, and powerful or small, broke, and weak.  What separates people’s outcomes seems  – in large measure – to be a two-factor process:  How to they decide what to be worried about and secondly, what then to do about it.

I wish we had more time because an exploration of my inbox turns up all kinds of interesting worries people have “glommed” onto.  Let me show you what I mean with an example – a reader write on the problem of the ghost towns which are popping up not only in China, but turns out there’s one being built in New Mexico as well:

“George,

There may be more to this than meets the eye. Back in 2004, we met up with some folks building a cob structure just south of Rodeo, NM on 20 acres.

The primary owner who was from New York, had been to a tracking school put on by Tom Brown. He was a somewhat disturbed by comments made by Brown. It seems that he was training Home Land Security folks in an abandoned mining spot south of Playas, NM.

Brown shared that he was shaken up by 9/11 because he had a brother in law killed in one of the towers. He thought he would help by training the HLS folks in tracking and other things. Don’t have any idea what the other things would be.

So, I would not be surprised to hear that this town west of Hobbs could be a training ground for the HLS folks as well. After all, they have ordered what, some 400 million rounds of ammo. Of course this could be for target practice since there will be no doubt wild life in the area.”

The long-term contract by DHS for ammunition is a dandy example of what would be – in terms of mental memes – almost like a free molecule of an oxidizer (or reagent) in chemistry:  It’s a fact that’s floating around in headspace, and just like in chemistry, it’s waiting for something to glom onto.

I’ve see the ammunition story attach itself to theories about coming revolution in America, violence repression of people who don’t agree with government policy if only peacefully, now the ghost town oddity – and lots of other things.

We need to be very careful when looking at such stories, however since just because a fit between stories could be constructed, it doesn’t mean causation.  The two are different kettles of fish.

When you do the math (on the ammo) it works out to something like 50-150 rounds per employee per year.  Not sure how many rounds go into training, but I know if I were authoring training of security forces it would be a goodly number of rounds (500+) per employee in basic training and then 200+ rounds for annual qualification.

Because the “chemistry” of this story is gun/violence related, just as in chemistry, it tends to attach itself to stories which have a high level of certain kinds of content.  The ammo aspect, for example, wouldn’t attach well (react with, in chemistry terms) with something like aliens landing.  On the other hand it reacts well with any story where there is an “authority question, earthly-based human subset.”

Since the ghost towns are real – as are the training stories about Russian troops in Colorado near as we can figure – the ammo story has potential “reaction” with these meme “chemicals.”  Russians don’t run .40 caliber?  Next reaction, please.

Main thing to keep in mind while test-fitting news, looking for design patterns which can give deeper insights, is to be wide-ranging in thought, but slow to conclude causation.  When you think you find something – like the Sun Disease story in the “hard news” section this morning, start lining up the data but be sure to sit back and ask “Is this just a “fit” or is it a “reaction” starting which demands my attention?

Words – in the information era – are a lot like chemicals were a hundred or two years ago:  We know they cause reactions, but like chemistry in its infancy, we’re still sorting out how the reactions work under different conditions.  One thing’s clear:  The better of the “word chemists” tend to move up the human food chain.

Friday at the WuJo

EVP & Ghost Hunting in Vicksburg

Earlier this week, as Elaine and I were wandering the streets of Vicksburg, MS looking at the touristy things there, I happened to notice a sign in the window of the old building across the street from the Coca Cola Museum.

So how cool it that, we thought.  A conversation with the building’s tenant – Diane (I forgot her last name) resulted in some background about what the ghostly going-on were and then included appearances of former  residents of the building, which back in the early days of Vicksburg was a hardware store on the lower level and a bordello on the upper floors and apparently there had been a fire there when had claimed the lives of some of “the girls” more than a hundred year ago.

The bordello part was on the upper floors and Diana (an ex-Texan, BTW) was kind enough to take us on a tour.  The second floor is in restoration and one thing I didn’t appreciate previously was that in most of these old Pre Civil War buildings, the bricks were made on site.

I didn’t know what I was expecting, but the idea of clay, sand, and other building materials being hauled into the site somehow just hadn’t been a subject of much thinking on my part, but since there were no telephones, computers, or building departments, it made sense.  Come to find out in some buildings (not this one) horse manure was added to the brick mixture because it improved the strength of the bricks.  Who’da thought?

Best part of the tour, though, was the building’s basement (above) where the construction included plenty of arches common to architecture of the period- the kind you can find elsewhere in America’s past including the Pioneer Square Underground in Seattle.

Back when the building was constructed, there were all kinds of tunnels (most all now bricked-up) which connected the various buildings at the time of the Siege.

Still, no sign of the ghosts, but what we were told was that in addition to the usual apparitions and things disappearing/moving about, the building it a real hotspot for EVP – electronic voice phenomena.

Since we’re likely to go back, I figure next time, I’ll bring along some EVP recording tools and see if I can catch anything.  While I know most people are skeptical of electronic voice phenomena, I’ve read enough in the subject area to be open-minded about it and figure that if there’s anything to this “thinning of the veils” between different levels of reality that comes with 2012 events, what better time than this year or early next to try hunting voices?

Back Home

I have to say, the return flight home Thursday morning was pleasantly boring.  Elaine (read: blonde autopilot) flew about half of it.  Landed just as afternoon clouds were starting to move in – which brought some showers in the area about 3 AM today.  Gusty cross-winds from the southeast on runway 09, but nothing unmanageable.

Today, a quick breakfast and then into 14-hours of work which accumulated in spite of working 6-hours a day on the road.  Not that backlogs of work are a bad thing.  Sometimes I think one of the good things about being a workaholic is that it gives meaning to life in a world largely lacking it.

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New Battles for Internet Supremacy

(Macon, GA)  “What does a columnist’s conference have to do with the future of banking, commerce, and how people live in the world today?” you could well be wondering to yourself.  Well, as we’ll discuss here this morning, the whole point of going to a professional conference is to add to one’s personal recipe book; that composite model we each carry around in our heads that let’s us figure on the fly how everything fits together which – in turn -allows us to spot opportunity.  These, on occasion, can be used to great financial advantage, or at least to help steer clear of potential pitfalls.  Interesting stuff which we’ll get to after we parade a few early headlines.

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It has been a while since we have discussed high beta investment systems, but with the market more or less stuck in “boring” maybe we should see if there’s a way to play it, shall we?  But not, of course, before tromping through some of the headlines that will push markets around next week,  Still, it’s the poking around looking for new and different ways to make money (or hold onto value so you’ve got a little something for a rainy day) which is fun.  Think of it has entry-level forensic economics…

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(Also)  The “Flip-Side” of Virtual

In Wednesday’s report on the future of virtual reality glasses, a new technology which I think had pretty good potential to “pop” (standing 10-feet from a virtual 102″ screen is pretty snazzy stuff) which qualifies it as one of our serial get-rich-slowly paths, which usually seems to take years instead of days, but that’s another matter.  What matters this morning is that as a friend (Oilman2) told me this week, there’s a really horrible side of virtual  and he’s been kind enough to share details of how virtual is getting ready to start whacking jobs down in the oil patch.  As usual, before we wade into the grim, we can recap the market and some of the major week ending headlines to see where that points…

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 Safer Computing:  Swearing Off Cookies

It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.

To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.

I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy – and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:

• You need an active cookie manager – because sites you visit can put small bits of code on your computer and some of these are designed for Flash, have no expiration, and can really bugger-up the computing experience.  This part gets handled by Maxa Labs’ product which on my system says 184,380 cookies have been removed, 73,881 “web bugs” which can track movement from site to site and such, and I have only 10-active cookies.

• Second thing you need is a good antivirus program – and I happen to really like Avira’s Antivir pro.

• Then you need to deal with Malware  so for this Malware bytes is updated and run daily.

• And last, though certainly not least is the firewall and the one in Win 7 works fine.

Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual – Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.

Toss in a good bit of common sense (example:  Don’t open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet’s actually a useful tool.

“Live on $10,000″ A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn’t, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book “How to Live on $10,000 a Year…or less!”

It’s an automatic download.  It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called “How to Build Anything” should instill confidence if you’ve never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too…..  Click here for the index and details.

Do Tell

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Last week’s report is always here.

 

(Vicksburg, MS)  By the time you open your coffee and pour your computer, we should be heading back from our travels on what is turning into something of a “mysterious Tuesday” not so much because of what has happened so far, but because of all the events that seem to be in coincidence or prequel mode.

 

As we click into the pile of overnight headlines, it’s striking to see how much is plain old “odd.”  Just as in wandering the floor of the casino here I was struck by how luck ruins in waves, so too the headlines have that kind of feel to them.

 

Some examples?  Of course.

 

Several readers have commented on the untimely death of a (the) key witness to the death of webegade publisher Andrew Brietbart.  Here’s an example:

 

“I wrote about the breitbart thing, a while ago….and a [psychic] reference to “protamine”.   

 

What is interesting is that in the article :

 

The gist of it is that Breitbart turned vivid red while normally heart attack victims turns blue according to the report.

 

With the body count and missing persons adding up, I am certain he was silenced by using some agent that was based upon the actions of this protamine substance.”

 

One story does not make an outbreak of coincidences, but here’s another.  Remember those mystery cities in China?  They made the email rounds with WTF notes a year or two back including links to Google Earth.  And they have been a hot topic by writers on the net.

 

What gets this into the strange/conicdence/WTF category is that update in the UK Telegraph this week on the plans to build guess what?  Yep – a 35,000 resident ghost city in New Mexico.

 

This one is a genuine stumper:  Oh, sure, these Chinese cities were explained as planned expansions gone bad….while the American counterpart town (only one so far) is being called a science project.  But since we already have lots of near-empty towns (Detroit comes to mind – all the freakin’ square footage in downtown buildings you’d ever want and available for pennies) we have to wonder “What would motivate governments on opposite sides of the planet to build large cities which will be empty?”

 

As you probably know, Clif’s got a “Shape of Things to Come” report due out around May 22, and I’m looking forward to finding out if anything which might be a bit with this curious string of construction [to what end] has turned up in the data?  If anything, of course, but there’s a lot of odd/quirky loose ends piling up on the editor’s desktop.

 

Right next to them is a note from our Indonesia Bureau Chief on the Sukhoi airliner crash:

 

“Well, the Sukhoi hit a mountain, not the ocean, at least according to the latest.    This ordeal is a major blow to Sukhoi, since (like Boeing) they’ve been hinging their survival on sales on the new Superjet 100.  This demo flight was supposed to cap the sale of a number of the craft, though all the buyers went down with the plane.  It remains to be seen if this will be viewed as “pre-disastered” a la Garp, or if all bets are now off the table. More to come… “

 

Judging by the terrain pictured, sure looks initially like pilot error.  When we get word on crash time weather conditions and time we’ll have more sense of things.

 

Slide Before Fall?

Our recent questions about markets “Are French Dips Contagious?” and “Deteriorating Quickly?” should have been a clue as to our market expectations this week, although earlier it looked like the slide has been stemmed momentarily and a brief bounce could be in order at some point (before completing the short term decline to the S&P 1,325 area if various calculations are correct).  Note that since our first warning in the Monday preopen the Dow has been drifting downward.

 

Since what goes down comes up, we expect a decent rally at the open and maybe for the day.  One more good down may finish off this correction, though, figures Robin Landry, who’s looking for a rally into summer once sell in May and go away season runs its course with cycles down until the middle of next week or so.

 

The headlines going into this morning include balance of trade figures:

 

“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $186.8 billion and imports of $238.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $51.8 billion, up from $45.4 billion in February, revised. March exports were $5.3 billion more than February exports of $181.5 billion. March imports were $11.7 billion more than February imports of $226.9 billion.

 

In March, the goods deficit increased $6.5 billion from February to $67.6 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion from February to $15.8 billion. Exports of goods increased $4.7 billion to $132.7 billion, and imports of goods increased $11.3 billion to $200.3 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $54.1 billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $38.3 billion.

 

The goods and services deficit increased $5.8 billion from March 2011 to March 2012. Exports were up $12.8 billion, or 7.3 percent, and imports were up $18.5 billion, or 8.4 percent.”

 

And then we have the weekly unemployment number, though remember these can be misleading because they include plenty of seasonal workers and mininum wages, but any port in a storm, I suppose:

 

“In the week ending May 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 367,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 379,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 384,250.

 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending April 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 2.6 percent.

 

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 28 was 3,229,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,290,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,290,000, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,300,500. “

 

How you want to read this graph is a kind of two-edged sword:

 

Reason for the edges?  Soaring trade would be higher foreign debt, but that might mean people are getting freer in the spending ways….like I said: mixed messages about in economics, politics, blah, blah, yada, yada…

 

Which leaves only watching how the collapse of Europe’s supergovernment/NWO test tube baby to watch.

 

Well, the is one other thing.  Since we all know that what the completion of the NWO will require will be a global money system, notice that the Fed has given the green light to Chinese banking giant ICBC to take on a US bank. Like we’re fond of saying: Where there’s a will, there’s lawyers.

 

Payback’s a Bitch Dept.

While most recent attention of Maricopa County Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio has been on his “truth squad” which has come up with numerous (unanswered) legal questions about the office-holder-in-place, we note the timing of a planned Justice Department lawsuit designed to attack Arpaio’s handling of  the illegal immigration, drug smuggling, home-invasion, murder problems along the Arizona Sieve.  

 

Some mistakenly call it a border, but that implies boundaries, which would imply drugs and drug money not pouring into Arizona and thence American politics, which is a bad impression anyone often-held by those who haven’t Googled the term “narco dollars”.

 

Conservatives will no doubt point out the irony around the timing of this when the Justice Department hasn’t been particularly forthcoming on Fast & Furious  (Weren’t there questions for the State Department, too?)  and while AG Eric Holder et all seem unbothered that the head of financial rip&banko MF Global is still at large (and by some reports bundling democorp campaign dough).

 

Nothing out of the ordinary, though.  What’s the old saying?  He who pays the piper calls the tune…  Ya’ll over in Arizona didn’t pay enough and payback’s a what?

 

March to the Police State

South Floridians in Coconut Grove may be wondering how come simulated gunfire doesn’t make “simulated noise?”  This as local media are pimping more urban terrorism drills as what InfoWars calls the conditioning of people to accept martial law.

 

See Spots Run

Latest from Patrick Geryl who has been watching the sun and sunspots in anticipation of his quake window…

 

“Hi George,  

 

You published my warning for May 15 on April 9:   http://www.urbansurvival.com/blog/?p=5273    

 

Here you find the video i made about it (published April 25)…  There are a lot more data in it…   Quadrupole Sun : Will the Poles of the Sun Switch Spectacularly on May 13 — 14 –15, 2012?  

http://youtu.be/rfivk4UcTV8    

 

This is the update for my predicted period May 5 – 9 (see the video):  

 

M1.8 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 14:08 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M4.7 Flare on 5/09/2012 @ 12:32 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.4 Flare on 5/08/2012 @ 13:08 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.9 Flare on 5/07/2012 @ 14:31 UTC – Sunspot 1470-1471 combined – LDE lasting 2hrs

M1.3 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 17:47 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.1 Flare on 5/06/2012 @ 01:18 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.3 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 23:01 UTC – Sunspot 1476

M1.4 Flare on 5/05/2012 @ 13:23 UTC – Sunspot 1476  

 

Comparison: All the flares from April:  

 

April 2012 M1.0 Flare on 4/27/2012 @ 08:24 UTC – Sunspot 1466

M1.7 Flare on 4/16/2012 @ 17:40 UTC – Sunspot 1461    

 

So quite spot on….!     And here is the latest….    

 

Region 11476 [N10E19] has magnetic delta structures in 3 penumbrae with the major delta located in the southern part of the huge leading penumbra. Major flares, even X class flares, are possible.

 

Flares:

M4.7/1N at 12:32,

M1.8/1B at 14:08, C9.1 at 20:52,

M4.1 at 21:05 UTC. A major flare,

M5.7, was recorded at 04:18 UTC on May 10.  

 

Patrick Geryl”

 

And just to be current through this morning:

 

:Issued: 2012 May 10 0847 UTC roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#——————————————————————–# #

 FAST WARNING ‘PRESTO’ MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         # #——————————————————————–#

NOAA AR 11476 is growing again in size and number of spots. Since yesterday noon, several major M-flares have been released. There is no indication that his will stop soon, at the contrary, chances for X-class flaring are becoming substantial. As the active region is approaching central meridian, the chances for associated particle storms are also increasing.  

 

So yes, as soon as we are back home this morning, the airplane gets fueled up, put back in its grounded metal hangar, and we will  delve into that which waits from this trip and catch up on subscriber remails and such…

 

More after this:

 

 

 

This is dandy!  I discovered it this morning in my email, since I haven’t really used this computer since our last trip (Thanksgiving’ish) last year.  for some reason it popped up today when I was going through the I-Ching inbox…

 

“Hello George,  

 

Most days my wife heads down the soi (that’s Thai for ‘street’) to grab me a strong takeaway coffee from the nearby Wawee Coffee Shop (a local northern Thai franchise). She takes our 14 month old son with her – he enjoys pushing his pram (that’s Australian / English for ‘stroller’) and occasionally sitting in it too. I’m usually at home, working away (I am fortunate enough to work from home) and praying that the crushing caffeine withdrawal headaches don’t erupt before she gets back with the goods, so to speak!

 

Anyway, this morning she came home from the walk rather freaked out. She typed up her experience during today and asked me to forward it on to you (she knows I’m a regular reader and I’ve mentioned some Wujo to her previously). I’ve pasted her text below.   Best to you, {reader].      

 

Wujo Occurrence

Chiang Mai, Thailand 16 November 2011  

 

This morning between 8:00am and 8:30am I was out on a morning walk with my 14 month old son. As we turned onto Nimmanhaemin Rd, Soi 9 (‘Soi’ is Thai for street), I stopped to put my son in his pram (stroller). We continued walking towards Wawee Coffee Shop in the direction of Doi Suthep mountain. I immediately noticed the Moon – shining amazingly bright for this time of morning and so big, it seemed so close to Earth. I couldn’t take my eyes off it as I walked up the road.

 

As we got closer to Wawee and a residential gate, where a small black dog lives (that my son loves and usually says hello to), a young couple (aged in their 20s, possibly early 30s) appeared riding on a bicycle, at speed, seemingly out of nowhere. The young man was pedaling while the girl sat side saddle on the back seat. They were Asian (not necessarily Thai) looking, with dark complexions.

 

The first thing that struck me as strange was their clothing – it looked very traditional and in an old style. The young man was wearing cream coloured flowing pants, a cream coloured long sleeved shirt and a maroon wrap around his shoulders. The young woman on the back of the bicycle had a blue floral shawl draped over her head. Muslim type attire came to mind. But the shawl was just resting over her head, like a classic Mary (Mother of Jesus) representation, not pinned down or seemingly attached in any way.

 

I thought their clothing was odd – as not many people get around dressed like this. Plus the traditional hill tribe clothing of this region looks different, so it wasn’t anything hill tribe.

 

The next thing I noticed were their radiant smiles – particularly the man, who was beaming. They were extremely happy smiles – not holding back in any way, big, genuine and free. They were both looking and smiling at my son in his pram.

 

As they passed me I stared at the young woman on the back of the bicycle, admiring her head shawl and thinking how strange it was that her shawl wasn’t blowing off with the speed of the bicycle. The shawl seemed to not even move or flutter about at all.

 

They looked so different to anyone I’d seen on the streets during the 8 years I’ve lived here. They struck me as not of this time.

 

The last thing I saw was the young woman’s face and shawl passing my field of vision as they cycled past. I walked a few more steps and had a strange feeling, I wanted to look at her shawl again – it was a beautiful floral pattern. I looked back behind me. The young couple was nowhere to be seen.

 

As Soi 9 is such a long road I would still have been able to see them cycling away.

 

Completely freaked out, I walked at a rapid pace back down the Soi to see if they had stopped by the side of the road, behind a parked 4wd or cycled into the nearby carpark – nothing.

 

No sign of them whatsoever. All of the nearby residential / house gates were closed and they are big metal gates that need to be opened (noisily and with some effort) before going inside. They had just vanished.

 

I might note that as the young couple approached and passed me, there wasn’t any noise coming from the bicycle, or either of them. In fact, all sounds seemed to disappear. I felt really strange and that I had experienced something way out of the ordinary. I looked at the Moon as my son and I continued to Wawee Coffee Shop and wondered if it (i.e. the Moon) had something to do with this strange phenomena.”

 

Yep, this is one for the books – and not out of keeping with our various reports of shape-shifting cars and so forth, either.  Most strange, but what the hell isn’t these days?  Remember in Clif’s work, we would start seeing/hearing of more cases oif surreality and we move along. 

 

And, speaking of WuJo, Elaine and I went on a tour of a haunted bxuilding in downtown Vicksburg on this trip, so drop by tomorrow for some pictures from there…

 

 

Wujo Report #2:  Bermuda Triangle Incident?

This one is pretty good, too:

 

“George, I have always read your Wujo reports with great interest. I’ve had two incidents in my life that I could describe as wujo events.  After the truck incident this last Sunday, I thought I would share them with you.  

 

This happened to me Sunday afternoon [5/6/12] returning home to OKC on I-40 East bound.  I was about a mile or two west of the 44 South junction and was behind a semi.  The truck had Heldal in large green letters on the back of the trailer and the number 8171 in large blue letters on the left bottom corner.  

 

As we came up to the South bound exit, he gracefully changed left across three lanes of traffic to enter the 44 north bound lane.  I entered the south bound lane on the right and started to merge onto 44 South bound.  

 

Another rig was coming up fast, so I yielded to him and came in behind him. And lo and behold, accross the back of the trailer we Heldal in large green letters and the number 8171 in blue letters in the left bottom corner.  

 

It was the same rig.  

 

I have no idea how he could turned around and re-entered the south bound lane, since the next exit from where he entered the north lane was another two miles ahead. I am sorely confused at this “crossing” of paths.  Any thoughts?  

 

The other incident involved me and my trusty lil’ C172 SkyHawk and an aborted trip to Bimini.  

 

I took off from Kissimmiee, Fl and landed in Ft. Lauderdale Executive to refuel (I am paranoid that way, plus I didn’t want to pay island prices for 100LL), checked the weather, drained the petcock and headed off east over the Atlantic. The Sun was directly above and water and the sky the exact same shade of blue, like flying into a blue bowl. Checked the instruments and everything looked good and I settled into what should have been an uneventful flight at 9,000′ MSL.   

 

About 15 minutes after getting feet wet, I noticed that the Gyro was dead. A quick cross check and the entire cockpit was dead.  Electric was still on and the radio still worked, but none of the navigation was working including the altimeter and the VSI. I radioed FXE and informed them that I was instrument out and was returning. I did a 180 by the whiskey compass and descended until I could see the waves. I returned to FXE and landed, had them check out the old bird, and they found nothing wrong.

 

I decided to return to Kissimmee and the flight back was unremarkable, except that all my instruments were working fine. Got home and spent the evening hanging out with dear old Jack.  Never had another problem with plane.”

 

As I collect reports like this, it becomes clear that some people seem to experience many of these kinds of events, while others have none at all.  Just one more bit of “out of placeness” on the truck – which at a design pattern level seems related to the Thailand bike story.  The airplaine story?  There was that missing Navy training flight and the disappearance of the search plane…roughly same neighborhood.

 

So is the Bermuda Triangle real?  Bet’cha we can take an edjumacated guess at what this reader’s answer would be…

 

  Urban Trends: Mail Theft

This was eye-opening:

“George —

 

You must have some pretty well-heeled readers if they don’t think your economic forecasting is accurate.   I know I live in a city that routinely makes the lists of “The Worst of —”, but I don’t think we’re *that* atypical. We have stores closing all over and buildings staying empty. Where Border’s was is still empty, for instance. There was a returned vet pan-handling in Trader Joe’s parking lot a month ago. I felt like asking him if this was what he risked his life for, but thought that would be “salt in the wound”.

 

Don’t those readers do their own shopping?  

 

The city closed one park because thieves had stolen the copper wiring for the lighting. Stealing copper has been an on-going problem here for many years.   Foreclosures are as bad here as anywhere else, maybe worse. Nobody near them had any such trouble?   Or do those readers not read or hear of their city, county and school budgets getting cut/slashed?  

 

And then there’s what I’ve gotten tangled up in — mail theft. My postal carrier said it’s gotten so bad, they’ve been asked to report how much got stolen on their routes!   I set two checks out for pick-up. Unfortunately, thieves got there first. Fortunately, they left the “evidence” in another box when they stole her money orders.

My carrier brought my two bills to me as soon as he found them and I immediately had stop payment orders put on the checks. But they changed the number on one check.

 

So, I had to clear that up with the grocery store that got taken. This was back in Feb. Yesterday, I got another dunning notice from that store. It seems they are still using my name and address, but fortunately (for me) not my ID and a different bank, so the store knows it wasn’t me — I guess the machine, or whatever, sends the duns without checking with people first.  

 

Anyway, I hadn’t reported it to the police, but since they’re still involving me, that’s where I’m going this morning. For me, it’s just been a hassle, but for the banks and stores involved, it’s evidently getting serious.

 

In fact, your forecasts may be too rosy for a good many people.  

 

On another topic, I enjoyed your notes on reading — sent them on to my sister who also reads constantly — but books, not these gadgets. But then I’m 80 and she’s close to that, so a different mind set from you young-uns. “

 

Personally, as I’m aging, I’m in the greatest race in life:  Want to see if I can get my age to 100 or my IQ to 100…

 

A Fortune

Savory, this:

 

“George, I chuckled at your column today whereby readers took you to task for your various typos, and thought I’d toss something out for deciphering. I got this in a fortune cookie last night – Hubby calls it “Chinglish”:  

 

“You own the most squander asset in the world-time.”  

 

Really?? Can’t say I’m quite sure how to take this yet. ;-p”

 

Owning time is like owning weather.  It’s there but often difficult to control.

 

 

Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com

New Battles for Internet Supremacy

(Macon, GA)  “What does a columnist’s conference have to do with the future of banking, commerce, and how people live in the world today?” you could well be wondering to yourself.  Well, as we’ll discuss here this morning, the whole point of going to a professional conference is to add to one’s personal recipe book; that composite model we each carry around in our heads that let’s us figure on the fly how everything fits together which – in turn -allows us to spot opportunity.  These, on occasion, can be used to great financial advantage, or at least to help steer clear of potential pitfalls.  Interesting stuff which we’ll get to after we parade a few early headlines.

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It has been a while since we have discussed high beta investment systems, but with the market more or less stuck in “boring” maybe we should see if there’s a way to play it, shall we?  But not, of course, before tromping through some of the headlines that will push markets around next week,  Still, it’s the poking around looking for new and different ways to make money (or hold onto value so you’ve got a little something for a rainy day) which is fun.  Think of it has entry-level forensic economics…

 

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(Also)  The “Flip-Side” of Virtual

In Wednesday’s report on the future of virtual reality glasses, a new technology which I think had pretty good potential to “pop” (standing 10-feet from a virtual 102″ screen is pretty snazzy stuff) which qualifies it as one of our serial get-rich-slowly paths, which usually seems to take years instead of days, but that’s another matter.  What matters this morning is that as a friend (Oilman2) told me this week, there’s a really horrible side of virtual  and he’s been kind enough to share details of how virtual is getting ready to start whacking jobs down in the oil patch.  As usual, before we wade into the grim, we can recap the market and some of the major week ending headlines to see where that points…

 

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 Safer Computing:  Swearing Off Cookies

It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.

 

To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.

 

I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy – and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:

• You need an active cookie manager – because sites you visit can put small bits of code on your computer and some of these are designed for Flash, have no expiration, and can really bugger-up the computing experience.  This part gets handled by Maxa Labs’ product which on my system says 184,380 cookies have been removed, 73,881 “web bugs” which can track movement from site to site and such, and I have only 10-active cookies.

• Second thing you need is a good antivirus program – and I happen to really like Avira’s Antivir pro.

• Then you need to deal with Malware  so for this Malware bytes is updated and run daily.

• And last, though certainly not least is the firewall and the one in Win 7 works fine.

Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual – Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes. 

 

Toss in a good bit of common sense (example:  Don’t open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet’s actually a useful tool.

      

“Live on $10,000″ A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn’t, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book “How to Live on $10,000 a Year…or less!”

 

 

 

It’s an automatic download.  It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called “How to Build Anything” should instill confidence if you’ve never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too…..  Click here for the index and details.

 

Do Tell

Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send ‘em a short email.  – Thanks!

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Last week’s report is always here.

(Vicksburg, MS)  It’s a tragedy of the human condition that our “tribe” of peeps on the rock is around 7-billion because it has reduced us all to numbers, and this in turn has caused an infatuation with that which “counts.”  This morning there are several numbers to consider, such as 3,000 which is the level in the French CAC40 index – a kind of French Dow – which is coming into view since their “let’s go back to free lunches” presidential election.

The same could be said for the S&P 500, which has its own load of troubles to deal with staying above 1,340.  Sure, it closed Monday 30-points above that level, but the futures were down another 7, or so, when I looked, and we’re in no particular hurry to get to the edge of the cliff, since respectable crashes trade sideways and down normally for either 35/37 days or 55 days from lower-high spots.  So sometime this summer is an interesting bet.

Dow 13,000 on the other hand could fall today, and if it does, sometimes these who number spots (ending in a couple of zeros) can be important psychological markers to keep in mind.

Still there’s the mood of optimism on both sides of the political aisle that hint January/Febhruary of 2013 (or even December 21, lol) would make a good crash period, since republicorps are confident they’ll win in November, but already Obama II supporters are speaking out.

Half the country will be sorely disappointed by the election and that’s likely to ripple into investment thinking and the willingness to take on debt.  For now, we’re up to our elbows in true believers, so one more leg up is possible.

An example of a number that provides a hopeful sign is that consumer spending was increasing at an annual rate of 10.25% in the report out Monday afternoon.  If you had just one number to use in forecasting this might well be it.

Of course, the M2 money supply (up 9.8% in the past year) couldn’t have had something to do with the increase in consumker debt could it?  Back out paper money inflation and suddenly that’s a 1% growth case and what has population growth been?  Unsavory questions best left for blessed and annointed academics with letters beyond MBA after their names.

If you read the report deeply, (don’t bother, have a life instead) you’ll find that there hasn’t been any increase in consumer debt  (they call it “credit” because they own us, not the other way around like it should be) hasn’t increased any since 2007.  In fact, we’re not doing badly as a nation at this “being thrifty” stuff.  Being pretty much broke is an incentive, I’ll grant you that.

If you want to find the real debt pig, the consumer debt portion held by the federal government has gone from $90.8 billion (student loans and such) in 2007 up to an astounding  $460.2 billion in this latest report.

The fact is, when you compare hows Q1 2012 is doing compared with Q4 2012 on the consumer spending/debt front, you find growth has been a whopping 0.06%.

The case for the double-dip is plain as day.  The growth is in government, pure and simple (highlighted) in Ure’s spreadsheet du jour:

 

Familiar Question

The Daily Beast has a report on how the DoJ has failed to bring justice to Wall Street’s criminal clown class.   But, what’s important, here?  Raising dough or going to jail?  Not to worry that it leaves the working class wondering if justice is spelled just us.

Social Marker: Kidnapping

One of the interesting things to note during economic downturns is the return of kidnappings as a way for bad people to make good money, or so goes their (twisted up) thinking.  Take the case up in Tennessee right now, for example.

Probably the most famous kidnapping of the Great Depression was the Lindberg case, back in ’32.

A little more recently, you may be old enough to remember the big headline kidnapping case that happened just ahead of the big Mini-Crash in 1987 – the Carlina Renae White Case.  August ahead of the October market face-plant.

Thinking goes (among non-quants, anyway) that there’s something about people’s behavior that changes when times are bad.  Kidnappings in Sicily went up and the economy went down there, too.  And Sendero in Peru…thinks to keep track of.  Poor economy?  High kidnapping risk.

Ahead of the Curve

Terrible headline, but with a report that obesity could affect 42% of Americans by 2030, I’m trying like hell to get to the other side of the cohort.  The correlation between CR (calorie restricted) diets and longevity keeps popping up, but what the hell fun is that?

Unintended Consequences

Speaking of calories and what all, thye Boston Herald has a tasty report on how state junk food for kids laws may end school bake sales.

We the ungovernable, led by the unthinkable….

The Next “Big Thing”?

The state of Nevada has issued Google a license to test the first (in ther wild) driverless cars.

Sounds great – at first.  But pardon me for asking: Isn’t this just one more thing to hack?

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