Had a most interesting conversation with Clif about how the attack by a lone gunman at the Discovery Channel in Maryland on Wednesday is an important temporal marker in the developing mass rejection of “The Big Lies” that are propagated by MainStreamMedia (the MSM).
We’ve been watching this part of the language evolve over the past couple of months because of the ‘heads up’ contained in the June 20th “Shape of Things To Come” report which outlined how the schism between what people see with their own eyes on topics like the environment and the economy are vastly different from the media portrayals of reality:
“As modelspace is progressed through Summer, and especially through late July through to very late September, the [degradation] of the [business as usual] blather from the [propagandists] is indicated to become so [blatant] as to [incite ridicule] within the [mass social body] of the Populace/USofA. The entity is clearly indicating that we will all begin to have a [private joke] about the [latest lies] coming from the [propaganda blitzers on teevee]. It would seem that this trend of [active] and [acknowledged disbelief] of the [mainstream media] will be [captured] by several [comics/pundits] over late July and early August. The data sets indicate that several of these [pundits/comics] will be [vocal] and [blatant] in their use of this meme and are indicated to [benefit] considerably from this [involvement] in the emerging trend. Note that these stand-up [acerbic wits] are significant precisely because this [visibility of disbelief] is a temporal marker for the larger emerging theme which will have its major impact beginning in September. Also at this time, which is to say over Summer, and into very early Fall, 2010, the [minion class (of politicians)] will be [freaking out] and [acting impulsively] as the [pressures] are being [sensed/felt] from the [public].”
(Link to www.Urbansurvival.com and www.halfpasthuman.copm required if cited)
Over at the Salon.com website, you can read the Lee demands and when you go through them point-by-point they seem to point at the same kind of ‘revolutionary’ mindset that is characterized elsewhere in the HPH reports.
While the Lee writings are characterized with the emotionally ‘hot’ term ‘manifesto’, some of his larger points about soaring human population may be viewed more as dangerous to the prevailing social paradigm than dangerous (except for the fact he got a gun involved).
His point about the television’s glorification or war and related technology somewhat tracks to the linguistic expectations about calling out the PTB Big Lies. And example:
“All programs promoting War and the technology behind those must cease. There is no sense in advertising weapons of mass-destruction anymore. Instead, talk about ways to disassemble civilization and concentrate the message in finding SOLUTIONS to solving global military mechanized conflict. Again, solutions solutions instead of just repeating the same old wars with newer weapons. Also, keep out the fraudulent peace movements. They are liars and fakes and had no real intention of ending the wars. ALL OF THEM ARE FAKE! On one hand, they claim they want the wars to end, on the other, they are demanding the human population increase. World War II had 2 Billion humans and after that war, the people decided that tripling the population would assure peace. WTF??? STUPIDITY! MORE HUMANS EQUALS MORE WAR!”
The shooting of Lee is a kind of temporal culmination of what’s been developing as an undercurrent in Western culture over many months; people are starting to question and that tends to raise my confidence in some of what the linguistics hold for the fall.
To name a few, based on this event as a key temporal marker, we ought to see a three month decline in the markets getting underway shortly.
Then, the next indicator, at least of critical concern to small investors, savers, and po’ folks like us who still dare to dream of retirement — and this should come along before the big tipping point in the second week of November — may be the ‘laughing man’ on national media.
The linguistics have us on the lookout for some character of note on national TV laughing while most of his colleagues are puking and sickened by the declines in the markets going on.
Seems this fellow will be getting a ‘last laugh’ as people who’ve been told repeatedly “Warning – here comes trouble in paper markets!” but chose to ignore it, and have stayed in on the long side, will end up where most bulls do: In a financial slaughterhouse.
Related, I posted a pre-open trading note for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers including an alert from Robin Landry which may be accessed (subscribers only) here.
Thar’ He Blows Department
Another part of Clif’s predictive work has been the expectations building around unusual weather which should be contributing to shortages of basics like food in coming months. Granted, a hurricane is NOT particularly unusual, but the evolving sidebar stories may be.
The arrival of Hurricane Earl is something of a precursor event in the Bigger Picture that emerges from the different data sets, but hardly matters if you happen to be one of the hundreds of thousands who will experience nature’s fury firsthand between now and Tuesday of next week. Island evacuations along the east coast are underway now and the forecast update looks like this:
Key thing about the weather – I mean Earl aside – is that it is already having an impact on food prices. Russia’s harvest losses, the decline in Canadian wheat expected – all this kind of weather related background is emerging as the highest food prices in two years.
Pass Around a Number!
Here’s one to light up and pass around: Got new GM sales down nearly 25%. Retail in Germany is down for a second month in a row.
What’s more immediately important is that productivity is falling according to a report just out from the Labor Department this morning:
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 1.8 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today as hours increased 3.5 percent and output increased 1.6 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) The second-quarter gain in hours worked was the largest since the first quarter of 2006. From the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2010, productivity and output both grew 3.7 percent and hours were unchanged (tables A and 2). Nonfarm business productivity increased at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent from 2000 through 2009.
Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses rose 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2010, as the 1.8 percent decline in productivity was partially offset by a 0.7 percent decline in hourly compensation. Unit labor costs decreased 2.8 percent over the last four quarters, as output per hour increased faster than hourly compensation (tables A and 2).
BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity; increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in output per hour tend to reduce them.
Manufacturing sector productivity grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2010, as output rose 8.4 percent and hours worked increased 4.1 percent. Productivity performance differed between the two manufacturing subsectors. In durable manufacturing, output per hour increased 9.9 percent as output grew 13.6 percent and hours rose 3.4 percent. In nondurable goods industries, productivity fell 2.4 percent as output grew 2.8 percent but hours grew 5.3 percent (tables A, 3, 4 and 5). Total manufacturing productivity increased 7.5 percent over the last four quarters and 3.0 percent per year on average from 2000 through 2009.
Unit labor costs in manufacturing declined 5.9 percent in the second quarter of 2010 due to both the 4.1 percent increase in productivity and a 2.0 percent decline in hourly compensation (tables A and 3). Unit labor costs fell 7.3 percent over the last four quarters, the largest four- quarter decrease since the series began in 1988.
My pet theory on productivity declining is that management types avoided the layoffs to save their own butts in many companies, but at the numbers hint, they don’t know how to get things done as effectively. Just a theory but lots of first-hand observation data over the years to back that up, LOL.
Gee, this is so much fun, let’s pass another number around. Lighter, please?
In the week ending Aug. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 472,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 485,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 488,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Aug. 21, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 21 was 4,456,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,479,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,485,250, a decrease of 28,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,513,750.
The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 4.994 million.
Factory orders will be out in a couple of hours – about the time the buzz from our first couple of (ahem) numbers for the day wear off. We might also get a hit off pending home sales data, too. But the Unemployment report tomorrow should be the biggy for the week.
Credit Union Closure
NCUA out with a press release Wednesday:
The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) was appointed liquidating agent of First American Credit Union of Beloit, Wisconsin by the Wisconsin Office of Credit Unions on August 31, 2010. NCUA immediately signed an agreement with First Community Federal Credit Union of Parchment, Michigan, to assume the assets and liabilities of First American Credit Union. First American Credit Union’s members will experience no interruption of credit union service. Their accounts are federally insured by the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF) up to at least $250,000.
No, banks are not alone in their troubles…
D.U. In Hawaii
Good backgrounder in the Hawaii Star-Advertiser about depleted uranium rounds used in the 50th state…
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Also in the ‘nukes are a marketing problem file’ we notice that News 8 in Las Vegas is reporting the new name of nuke test site as a “National Security Site.
A rose by any other name – still clicks.