Yeah, sure, the FDIC closed down (reorganized in shotgun marriage form) five more banks this week, but it could have been worse since the largest one was only 15-branches. Because of the holiday weekend, the openings will be on Tuesday instead of the usual ‘back to normal on Monday’ which accompanies such actions. The latest batch includes:
| First State Bank |
| Platinum Community Bank |
| Vantus Bank |
| InBank |
If you’re keeping track of how many branches have been involved since IndyMac went down last year, the count is 3,654.
Here in my office in whatever spare time I can muster, I keep looking for the definitive work that clarifies whether the 3,000 banks closed down in the opening 2½ years of the previous Depression were counted on an institutional basis or on a branch basis; so far no success finding that little detail.
Economists, however, continue to fall into two camps: The realists (with folks like yours truly), who have already figured that the cost of bank bailing on a constant-dollar, per capita basis has exceeded the impacts of the previous Depression.
However, the Apologist School of Economics argues (somewhat validly I’ll admit) that my $200-billion cost is being slowly paid back, so the comparison is unfair, and what’s more, they point out that the banks which are failing aren’t really failing, they’re just, oh, you know, remarrying – that kind of thinking.
This latter school of economists also argue that we should all relax while government “spends us rich.”. Count me as skeptical, but I missed the whole house-flipping bonanza, too, and here I am – stuck without a mortgage. Aw, gee, shucks.
Meantime, the teen age and recent graduate employment levels suck with the teen rate being over 25% now. Got a pet theory on this: How many homeowners like me are deathly afraid to hire kids to do chores like mow the lawn because of the fear that the kid will get hurt and sue the living daylights out of the homeowner? Ambulance chasers abound, especially when times are tight.
The Weak in Markets
That another 236,000 Americans lost their jobs in the latest reporting month didn’t seem to bother stock market, which if measured by the Dow lost only 102.93 this week.
What so many of my friends spent Friday trying to figure out is where does it go from here?
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Robin Landry thinks there’s still a chance we could rally to a 50% retracement level measured from the 14,000+ high of 2007 down to the March of this year lows, but after that it’s (in a nice breakfasty word here) – toast.
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A couple of other traders I know agree, but they have more aggressive wave counts that suggest that the Dow action on Friday was little more than normal pre-holiday euphoria and next week will meandering downward and accelerate.
If you look at a one month chart of the Dow Transports, which under Dow Theory means something, you can see the rally case being traced out. The transports are back, but for how long is anyone’s guess.
Me? I bought a couple of options that I call ‘lottery tickets’ – far out of the money put options on the S&P for the November expiration. And my out of the money I mean under 700 on the S&P before these would make a dime.
Although they have only a slim chance of paying off, if the market begins its third Elliott wave down in earnest, we could blow through 9,100 and 8,099 support on the Dow so fast it’d make your head spin. So I bought some financial equivalent of lotto tickets just in case. Only play money, not grocery money on this.
Investing is not like poker where there’s some modicum of skill involved. When a person’s fool enough to be long this kind of market, they need to recognize that they’re not up against other (irrational) humans so much as they’re up against the flash trading/ high frequency trading microprocessors. “Are you [still] feeling lucky, Punk?” Told Peoplenomics readers last week that this’d be the week to exit. My call YTD is up over 20% – not too many ‘advisors’ are doing that good, which is why I avoid making specific investment advice.
Call Indiana Jones!
A massive ancient wall has been uncovered in Jerusalem says a CNN report. Which means wall building has been going on in that part of the world for a very, very long time, eh?
Tourist Traps
The US is eyeing charging visitors from EU land a $10 visitor tax. EU seems likely to respond.
Around the Ranch
A very short report this morning – but there will be a report Monday – also short, however. Off to work on Peoplenomics where this weekend I explain how to set up your own Free to Air satellite TV and of course, the more in depth economic coverage.
See you Sunday if you’re a subscriber, Monday if you’re not, or sometime next week if you’ve got a serious substance abuse problem. Way the market’s been since ’07, I understand al;l three possibilities….
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Send comments to george@ure.net
The UrbanSurvival Mall:
Peoplenomics This Week:
Short Term Values, Capital Preservation
First up is a short look at ‘immediacy values” from the predictive linguistic work which could impact personal and business expectations between now and when the next “Shape of Things To Come report is issued around September 15th. The good news is that while some things look better, other prospects have grow more ominous. Then we’ll consider some of the recent developments in the market and whether it’s time to get back to bearish since I became bullish in late March (Issue #395: “Me Bullish? Where to Play the 401(k) Game).
More For Subscribers Subscription Information
MyGroPonics
My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It’s an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few ‘dollar stores’ and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space – like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It’s just $10 bucks here…
Maxa-Cookie Manager
No, when you tell your browser to ‘empty your cookies’ of web sites you’ve visited, it probably won’t get them all. Why? Because there is a whole class of ‘browser-independent’ cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like this one:
“Thanks again for the Maxa Tools recommendation, I never knew how much additional garbage gets attached every time I browse. “
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive ‘non-browser specific’ cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster. I’ve taken 1,000 37,970 cookies off my machine now. It’s just amazing.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world….so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time…
Feeling Thorny?
Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list…Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course….
“Live on $10,000″ Updated
I’ve told you in the past to order my ebook “How to Live on $10,000 a year or less…” with the rationale that “We’re all going to live it shortly, anyway.“ Don’t know as you have looked lately, but the unemployment rate is up more than 3% since I wrote the first edition of that book and underpasses have never been more homely. Worth ordering? Just visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click this little whizzie…
It’s an automatic download. It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left… Click here for the index and details.
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Last week’s report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
