We’ve got – from when the market opens in NY this morning – only about 6½ trading hours to go until we get to the long-awaited October 25/26 emotional turning which is due to take place according to the work out of www.halfpasthuman.com. If you’re a newbie, the general concept is that changes in language tend to precede changes in reality and for quite some time, in fact on the other of months and months, we have been looking at the period we’re just coming into as when ‘emotional tensions releasing’ turn back into ‘emotional tensions building’.
The modeling of events suggests that whatever is going to happen will arise out of ‘globalpop’ which means the center of the buzz amongst humans will not be limited to a few trading wonks; it’ll be something big and something that will be on the tips of people’s tongues by next Friday worldwide. A quick check of the kind of events that could fit the linguistics…and you’re welcome to throw your own darts here:
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The #1 possibility – never to be overlooked – is that we’ve got the processing wrong and nothing will happen. Unfortunately, since the predictive technique has worked well in advance of previous events, it may work out again. So we move down the list of possibilities…
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A mega-quake would certainly do it. As our Indonesia correspondent BG reported earlier this week, the Indonesia meteorological office’s geophysical group issued a warning for this time period of an 8.0 to 8.4 quake. That could put the scale of destruction from resulting tsunamis and such up near the Banda Ache (9.1 to 9.3) size and that would cause building tensions while damage is assessed and the world assimilates impacts.
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Israel could decide to get after Iran’s nuclear facilities – something that has been in the cards for a long time. But that might be considered ‘release language’ – which is what short-term striking out pencils in modelspace. What could change it into an emotional build period? Well, if the bunker-buster bombs set off a nuclear explosion, or it a huge cloud of radioactive debris is popped into the atmosphere and we have a period of a week or three while the fallout from the event drifts eastward toward China and then down froim Alaska via the jhet stream to guess where? Or, what is as a consequence OPEC allied with China and Russia draws an embargo around the West for it’s nominal support of such an operation, or if Iran responds with multiple NBC weapons aimed at Israel and we get an escalation sequence over a several weeks period?
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Who needs exogenous events, however, when the market’s rally is so long in the tooth already? Yeah, the happy-talk is that ‘good times are here’ but there are some bothersome bearish divergences if you study the technical picture. Just as one ‘for instance’ consider that the 1.33% rally in the Dow on Thursday was accompanied by a just darn near flat Dow Transports move. Under Dow Theory, as go transports, so goes the Indoo’s over time.
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Or, the problem could be a huge jam-up in the US dollar starting Monday. Such a scenario might have a trigger event like words that the Euro is in trouble and may not be a dollar-equivalent within the EU because of bickering in Europe. Conversely, the possibility of a unilateral – preemptive – 40% devaluation of the dollar when most people aren’t expecting it could catch global markets off balance and while sending a flood of dollars home to the USA ensuring a lower lifestyle) it would nevertheless set up the possibility of announcing partial gold convertibility at the new lower price. The ramification of this open were outlined in yesterday’s column.
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There are plenty of other ‘events’ or ‘event clusters’ that could have the same impact (rising tensions for two or three weeks would likely track with a declining market by the end of the next trading week, but that’s only if the dollar isn’t devalued. Pick almost any global-sized headline you want – like the American Bankers Association meetings in Chicago that kick off Sunday and where protests – perhaps large back by angry unemployed and foreclosed homeless – might be a trigger.
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Yes, the possibility of a nuclear terrorist event (again with tensions building as the internet is dialed back and so forth) would be another one that could have a 2-3 week ‘tail’ of worry. We don’t run too much processing in that area, though, since that’s Homeland Security’s playing field and we’d likely be unwelcome interlopers. Still, I’ve taken the unusual step of setting up a static IP address for this page ( http://72.52.163.140/week.htm – bookmark it) along with an SSL layer so access via https://72.52.163.140/ will be possible. Subscribers to my Peoplenomics.com newsletter will still be able to access via http://67.225.203.185/ and again, an SSL layer is provided. All this on the incredibly thin chance that Monday might bring a massive coordinated attack on the internet’s name server architecture. If you have all your bank IP addresses cached (a poor pun, indeed) then disruption should be minimized, but as I’ve pointed out before better to be prepared and wrong, instead of ill-prepared and thrown under the bus.
My hope is that the technology finally be horribly wrong and that Thursday or next week, the market will still be where it is, green shoots talk will be building, and peace & harmony will be breaking out globally. But realistically? Something 85% economic in nature, 15% ‘other’ seems to be in the cards.
“George, you’re a doomster…” you might be thinking. No: A doomster would enumerate the really really grim possibilities. The things worse than an earthquake. But, since you asked, what could be worse than any of this? Oh, how about a catastrophic dam failure at Three Gorges and the impact of that kind of event on China’s (not to mention the whole world’s) economy. That is not in the data (at least yet) but such an occurrence would certainly get us toward the kind of depopulation events that are in the modelspace farther out. And even that pales compared to…well, stick around a year or two; no point ruining the weekend, eh?
OK, one more thing – since I outlined the possibility for Peoplenomics subscribers in a weekly report two weeks ago in issue #424 “The Day the Dollar Died”, it may be worth reiterating that talk about ‘open internet’ has been building and we’ve seen enough ‘prequel’ motion in that area such that an attack (via the ‘net) on key banking and financial systems beginning next week could trigger an obvious response path by government. From my ‘hypothetical’ event discussion of a possible future noted here’s what might happen should such an attack be carried out:
“As the presidential news conference ended, scores of internet based services were already blinking off as NORTHCOM asserted its control of the internet. Unknown to the public, numeric IP addresses would continue to operate, but because virtually all web sites are known to their users only by their names turning down the internet became a simple mattering of turning off name servers….”
Don’t mean to HAARP on things here, but with “U.S. FCC commissioners support open Internet rule” what better way to spin around the Internet and bring it to heel – much as radio was brought to heel by the Commissions Act of 1934 – than to have a LIHOP/MIHOP event that could be used by government to seize and license Internet use? Shut them troublesome blogs up, easy enough which might improve the rapidly falling polls on president Obama’s performance in office.
Personal Position – NOT investment advice: A am long a little silver, short a little gold having decided that I don’t have enough insight into a specific event to place a bet. So what I’ve decided to do is hedge next week based on volatility….setting up a ‘heads I win, tails I win’ situation. If the coin doesn’t get tossed, and markets go slogging sideways, I’m not betting grocery money…more like a cheap lotto ticket bet.
If you don’t know how to structure that kind of position, read last week’s report here and scroll down to the part in Wednesday’s column then scroll down to the Coping section’s “Looking for the Next Big Trade.”
Maybe it all just means the top is coming in today off the March lows…
To offer a bit of Robbie Burns for breakfast:
“But little Mouse, you are not alone,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes of mice and men Go often askew,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy!
Still you are blest, compared with me!
The present only touches you:
But oh! I backward cast my eye, On prospects dreary!
And forward, though I cannot see, I guess and fear!
Bill’s Rally
Yes, I ordered the upgrade to Windows 7 yesterday. No surprise: Microsoft earnings good, stock futures up. The only thing that remains is the blow off top to 10,300 this afternoon and we’d be all set for the collapse into November.
Likely as I see it: Top should be in today.
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Speaking of software: If you hit the Maxa Cookie Manager link this morning (down in the shopping mall) you’ll get the brand new Version 4.0.
Mass Layoff Improve
The chart says more, but if you like reading, try this on:
“Employers took 2,561 mass layoff actions in September that resulted in the separation of 248,006 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of mass layoff events in September decreased by 129 from the prior month, and the number of associated initial claims decreased by 11,301. Over the year, the number of mass layoff events increased by 271, and associated initial claims increased by 7,285. Year-to-date mass layoff events (23,745) and initial claims (2,410,208) both recorded program highs. In September, 856 mass layoff events were reported in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 97,066 initial claims. Over the month, the number of manufacturing events decreased by 44, while associated initial claims increased by 3,174.
Picture:
Competitive Banking Department
Oh sure, the US Fed & Treasury may have had some bumps in the reverse repo area this week, but check this out: “Bank of England” “BOE more likely to expand bond purchases after GDP slump” reports Bloomberg.
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Meantime the ‘slosh report’ looks like the US has taken out $55B or so.
Dollar jam up coming?
How To Get Rich, 101
“New Jersey Pays Goldman Sachs for Swaps on Nonexistent Bonds.“ Like the meet the salesman on that deal…
Half a Chair Department
Latest in the adventures of French president Sarkozy’s son who was trying to head up a major business council. Yesterday went on the tube and said he was giving up his shot at the chairman’s spot. Today he gets elected to a seat on the board - but not chairman – by a 3-2 kinda margin.
Well duh. Repeat after me: “Wired.”
Silenced?
The headline “British nuclear expert falls 120 ft. to his death in Vienna” sounds just…you know…suspicious. Officially, it’s not. But officially, 9/11 was terrorism, UFO’s aren’t real, and government is fair & just….so I’ll take this one with an aspirin, thanks.
Safer Walking Department
“Pilots should have had warning of airport approach” is the headline. Read through it, seems a Northwest jet managed to fly past its destination by 150-miles.
Fluage
So now that the CDC says 1 kid in 5 had flu-like symptoms this month – and they are suggesting most of those were ‘likely swine’ I find myself asking “What’s the big deal?”
But only to late Feb to early March when the bad stuff gets uncorked…but when it mutates will this vaccine even help?
Global Warming by the Plate
Swedes will have more than price, ingredients, and calories to consider on menus shortly: Carbon impact.
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Yee haw! Beat on that meme (thought virus)…pimp that global government is necessary stuff….you go MSM…
Say, how about a carbon footprint report on political figures? Put it in the column next to BTU’s of hot air…that’s your source of global warming, right there. Politicians & bureaucrats. Close as I can tell the correspondence between total number of government workers & politicians with increases in globull warming is 99.9999%.
Can I get a side order of reality please?