Bankoween! Nine Banks, 153 Branches
And you thought Halloween was scary? Most Saturday mornings I wake up and the first thing I do, besides swilling coffee, is to sit down at the FDIC website and throw the latest bank reorganization dated into what has become a somewhat large spreadsheet. The reason I do this is so that I can tell at a glance how many banks have closed by state, how many banks have closed since IndyMac closed last year, or any other query I wish to throw at the data.
This week, the FDIC press releases were organized somewhat differently: instead of giving the number of branches for each of the nine banks involved in this week’s reorganizations, only the group total was given for the nine banks. 153 branches is a pretty sizable number of branches closed this weekend and to reopen under other names/ownerships on Monday.
If you’re into heavy math, 1307 branches have been reorganized this year alone, which compares with 3914 since IndyMac went down in May of last year. By my spreadsheet, this makes 115 banks reorganized since January 1, 2009. Our latest additions are:
| North Houston Bank |
| Madisonville State Bank |
| Citizens National Bank |
| Park National Bank |
| Pacific National Bank |
| California National Bank |
| San Diego National Bank |
| Community Bank of Lemont |
| Bank USA, N.A. |
The news isn’t all bad of course, since it means that FDIC still has enough money to pay staff and arrange shotgun weddings. It also means that at least one branch of government seems to be doing a relatively efficient job of carrying out its mandated tasks. Sorry, that’s about the most optimistic point of view I can come up with leastwise until some more coffee sinks in.
Today’s rather large announcement of banks being reorganized raises a very interesting question: with tonight being Halloween: What would be the scariest possible costume one could wear to a party? My costume idea list includes going as:
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Treasury Secretary
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Federal Reserve Chairman
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FDIC bank examiner
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Obama administrations car czar or whatever
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California budget director
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Corporate human relations specialist
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Florida election official (been popular for years, now)
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UN climate expert
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IRS auditor
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Health and Human Services flu shot worker
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or, my favorite of all: cynical blogger
Fortunately, we live way off in the outback of East Texas and about the only thing that comes visiting us even on Halloween eve is a small herd of deer seeking refugee status from local bow hunters. (Next weekend, we’ll be passing out the Kevlar vests and ear muffs as the rifle season opens). Besides, I haven’t been invited to a Halloween party in years. Come to think of it, I don’t get invited much of anywhere. Wonder if my dour attitude about the economy has something to do with it?
One thing this FDIC report does is it takes “…or Treat” off the table.
Black Monday Fears
You know what’s really interesting? Since the Dow Jones industrial average closed down on Friday 249.85 points, or or nearly 2.5%, the number of people who have been questioning the web bot project seems to have fallen dramatically. Gee, wonder why?
Not only that, but a couple of astute readers noticed that the predictive linguistic project turn date of October 25/October 26, exactly corresponded to the turnaround in the volatility index — the VIX.
Fortunately, I don’t dispense trading advice, because if I did it would surely embarrass many of them Wall Street mavens who pulled bigger paychecks than me with duller darts. I refer you, of course, to the column 2-weeks ago in which I outlined a scenario where the linguistic turn date would morph into a major market downturn and correspond with a major uptick in the US dollar.
Well guess what?
To my way of thinking, there is a nonzero chance that either next Monday Tuesday Wednesday or… we could get into a major crash situation. The reason for this is we’re at the point of recognition where someone besides an old goat rancher- like you know who - will figure out that the market advance from the March lows this year cannot continue ad infinitum. When that blinding flash of reality streaks across the skies, a lot of folks will figure out the market is overbought and a retest of the March lows will suddenly appear in the cards.
In all this week the Dow Jones industrials lost almost 260 points. The backup numbers are here.
A typical reader e-mail from this morning:
“What a day in the market !!! I have puts like you. Thank you Thank you
What is Robin Landry saying where we are going?”
Robyn Landry has the same kinds of concerns I do… you don’t think I’m smart enough to figure all this stuff out by myself do you? I always say ride on the shoulders of giants if you can.
Robin’s stopping points are Dow 9,450 (or so), then 8,500, 8,150 and then 6,617. We could bounce of of any, all, or none. Just depends what the stampede looks like when it starts. You don’t want to be popping bubble gum on Wall Street this next week, or so, however, because that’s all it might take to set things rolling.
The BIGGIE: The reason I pointed out the recent “Ure Ratio” which had postulated that the Dow moves about 10-times whatever the price of gold moves - may have broken down on Friday. If the ratio was to hold, gold should have dropped nearly $25 - which it didn’t.
Being no fool, I cleared one of my gold puts on Friday when the breakdown occurred while other positions will wait to see how next week shapes up (or shapes down).
The linguistics had pointed to a decoupling of gold/silver in this area and this could be it…
Cognitive Dissonance Department
To recap: Down down 260-for the week and 153-bank branches reorganized. And midst this? “Obama Cites Good Signs on Economy.”
If I were a doctor on the presidential team, I’d sure be asking if the president’s eyes have been bothering him lately. Here: Let me help: How many fingers am I holding up?
“Good times are just ahead”? Oh…er…sure….maybe government can expand faster than commercial real estate vacancy rates are going up after all…
Say What?
The headline on the BBC reads “Abdullah ‘may quit Afghan poll’ but the story then clarifies that: “The BBC’s Ian Pannell, in Kabul, says this does not mean he is officially withdrawing, although Mr Abdullah is expected to decide on his next step this weekend. “
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This one left me scratching my head for the better part of a half hour and I have the pile of dandruff to prove it. We have how many NATO and US forces there in the land which the Russians (Soviet era) gave up on in 1988 after trying to charm that snake pit for about 10-years? And this costs what?
Assuming the West has a similar learning curve to the Russians (or we may be a bit slower thanks to New Math), about the time we get to 2011 or 2012, the West ought to decide that it’s not worth fighting over, or at least its unaffordable since the cost of health care reform is back over a trillion again. And that’s before we consider a 40 to 75 percent devaluation of the US dollar…
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See why I can’t run for office? Although I thought about running against Jeb Hensarling for congress: Just too damn obvious for voters to deal with. Especially the kind of Idol thinkers than make up most of the flock. Just sayin’.
Truth Leak of the Day
“Biden: Job Stats “Not 100 Percent Accurate” reports Real Clear Politics. OMG - What? Tell me it ain’t so!
Wonder how far back they’d have to go to get all the BS-factoring out? When did they start statistically estimating new jobs with the CES Birth/Death Model, anyway? Not that it matters: You either have a job - or don’t. The number is just something for monkey-mind to grapple with instead of realizing your true potential as a human, but that launches us off into the weeds of philosophy and there’s too much work to get done on the weekends to mess with that kind of musing.
I should save it for another time - something you can haul out during one of those interminably long meetings that go on during the workweek.
Who’s the SOB who invented conference rooms anyway?
Guess Who’s Coming?
Word from MSNBC that president Obama has named 110 visitors to the White House is not exactly huge news. What would be? Oh, I dunno, inviting Elaine and me for lunch to talk over my recently extended golf offer, I guess.
Calculator Abuse
Speaking of networks and investigative reporting: ABC pencils out the cost of each stimulus job at $160,000 -using a little different than the numbers I plugged in earlier this week which got the price per job to $230K, but still kind of steep. White House calls it all calculator abuse. Figures… (horrible pun, but this is the weekend material).
Sticks & Stones Dept.
Then we get around to the report “Jeb Bush: Obama trying to ‘attack capitalism”. Well, no. Obama’s trying to pick up the mess after your brother, who as I seem to recall built the Housing Bubble..
Progress in Europe
Want some encouraging news? “Merkel and Sarkozy unite to end Blair’s European dream.“ Gee…so sorry. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer former chancellor of the Exchequer who sold gold when it was $275…talk about foresight, and financial genius huh?
Nixonian Practices
California AG “Jerry Brown’s office taped reports‘ calls” says a Chronicle online story. Will Brown prosecute himself?
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If there’s something strange going into the water inside the Beltway, there must be mass dumping of the same stuff into the water supplies that feed Sacramento.
— snip and save section —
Coping: Dragon Breath Speaking
I finally got around to installing Dragon Breath 10 on Friday and so far it has been a lot of fun trying to train it to behave. If you have run into some unusually phrases this morning, it’s because Dragon is still having difficulty figuring out what I’m saying - something no small number of readers have mentioned, too.
The coolest part of it so far is not composing general text; it’s in handling emails. A couple of commands (”move down” gets me down to the next email and then “reply” brings up the composing screen) is pretty cool.
Still, even though Dragon is better at typing without errors, somethings a phrase will run off the road… Point being that if something I write doesn’t make sense, try saying it aloud and then maybe what I intended will come through. For example, el Don references keep coming out L. Don and things like that.
Apparently, the more I use it, the more it will learn about my speech patterns - and presumably the better job it will do of putting it on the screen. Either that, or it’s really a program designed to teach infinite patience…which is its main feature so far.
Around the Ranch: The Zeus Report
A couple of readers have inquired how Zeus my black cat has been doing lately. To tell you the truth, or something near enough to it, he’s been fine, except we sometimes end up at loggerheads over the use of the drum set which occupies the middle of my office. Z complains it’s not fair that I get to use all the computers, and periodically turn around and smash on the drums while he’s trying to take a nap. He’s quite vocal about this:
It’s not like I wake him up, because he doesn’t sleep very much during the day; I’ve got him answering reader emails while I do real work.
No, the problem is a little deeper than that… Zeus has the idea that I don’t know a 16th note from a 2 x 4 on the drums. Worse, he says my percussion skills should be applied to a hammer, and nothing as sophisticated as the (cheap) drum set.
Darn uppity cat. He apparently doesn’t appreciate that I let him snooze on my Guggenheim area rug and he gets two squares a day.
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Look: I’m generally not one to engage in an escalation of conflict, but I pointed out to Zeus recently that the number of birds and mice he’s brought to the office as offerings has declined from one every couple of months to near zero here lately. In turn, he blames me because I’m keeping the yard well manicured. He insists that ruins it for hunting. Blah, blah, blah…typical workplace conflict.
Too bad! I am the fat biped in charge here.
Things will improve next week when I post a revised organization chart of ranch operations. The Org chart clearly shows that the mice, squirrels, birds and vermin on the ranch (except local politicians who have their own department in town) have copperheads as their immediate supervisors with a dashed matrix line over to the coral snakes. Zeus is supposed to run that whole part of the operation while I, in turn, supervise Zeus and slack off as much as possible. Dogbert school of management.
Going up the chart, I report to Elaine, who in turn doesn’t seem to report to much of anyone.
Zeus seems to be okay with that, but he’ll occasionally jump outside the organization lines and go directly up chart complaining about the quality of food service and other workplace conditions directly to she who sits over me in the organization chart.
And so it goes — the ranch has the same problems I ran into in the corporate world. Just as many snakes, just as many vermin, and younger cats challenging and getting outside the org lines. The same kind of politics, too. About the only thing missing are those stupid posters put up by the HR department about teamwork. Maybe if I put some of those up Zeus would toe the line a little better. Having a hard time finding them in Catonese, though.
Have a great weekend, and see you Monday morning, Black Monday or otherwise. Off to continue bashing on the left front wheel bearing of the Daewoo, and then polish off this week’s Peoplenomics report: “The Single Person’s Marketing Plan”. If you’re wondering how that topic relates to economics, you haven’t thought through what the most expensive decision is Life is, have you?
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Send your comments, electricians, and dwarves to george@ure.net
The UrbanSurvival Mall:
Peoplenomics This Week
“Economic Island Theory”
While we wait patiently to see which big commercial real estate outfit will be the first to hit banko, what the public reaction to the Obama declaration of national medical state of emergency and so forth will be, we’re at a fine point to consider one of my pet economic theories. I call it “Economic Island Theory” and it works with countries, states, cities, neighborhoods, and people right here on your block. If you want to understand who has power, Economic Island Theory is the ticket…no fancy formulas needed. Job, home, and Life counseling - all in one byte-sized theory.
“Live on $10,000″ Updated
With another round of layoffs due to start later this month…a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades…might I suggest a preemptive tactical move? Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we’re all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting point, at least if you’ve still got $10-bucks is my e-book “How to Live on #10,000 a Year…or less!”
It’s an automatic download. It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left… Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics
My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It’s an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few ‘dollar stores’ and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It’s just $10 bucks here…
No, when you tell your browser to ‘empty your cookies’ of web sites you’ve visited, it probably won’t get them all. Why? Because there is a whole class of ‘browser-independent’ cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like this one:
“Thanks again for the Maxa Tools recommendation, I never knew how much additional garbage gets attached every time I browse. “
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive ‘non-browser specific’ cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster. I’ve taken 1,000 37,970 41,837 cookies off my machine now. It’s just amazing. (I might ask their CTO to add one more digit to the “Total deleted till now” window…)
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world….so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time…
Feeling Thorny?
Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list…Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course….
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Last week’s report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)