10.2%!!! The Jobless Recovery
This morning’s report report is a few minutes early since we have to go load some goats which are going to the ‘all terrain self-powered brush mower’ auction today. Banging heads with Boer goat bucks makes infinitely more sense than the economy here lately, anyway.
The reason I say that - with some degree of confidence - is that almost every day there’s a headline out somewhere that says “World unemployment up despite economic recovery“. Every time I read something like this I invariably go into an econoplexic state. My eyes glaze over, I work, I spend, I eat…yet somehow there’s an air of surreality to it all. It’s like being in dreamland - but different.
Over and over I ask myself “How can an economic recovery be claimed when global unemployment is rising?” After mention of the productivity numbers earlier this week, a couple of readers explained it this way: “What happens to all the work that an increase in productivity concurrent with layoffs mean? Just that the work is now being done by the remaining employees who have to work harder and harder…”
OK…that makes sense…sort of. Not to dwell too long on this - there are goats to round up, so on to the jobs numbers:
“The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in con- struction, manufacturing, and retail trade.
Household Survey Data
In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 per- cent) and whites (9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-9.)
The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes refer- red to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)
About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October, reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea- sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October, up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis- couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
Two numbers to keep a close watch on: The CES Birth/Death Model (the estimate [made up] jobs for the current month) totaled 34,000.
And the Table A12 U-6 Labor under-utilization rate (the PhD’s turned burger flipper rate) was at 16.3%. A year ago it stood at 11.1%
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Not good for the market - and gold is set to make a run at $1,100 an ounce. Not only that, but silver is perking up, too.
Stock Crash Date Madness
IF the stock market goes on to set a new post-March high today, there would no doubt be dancing in the street, at least on Wall Street. The reason is that what would happen IF the market rallies to something like the 10,200 range, or better, that would push any chance of a major Crash in the market out until sometime next year. Not likely with the jobs numbers, but go with me on this.
A handful of market timing experts believe that crashes don’t happen until a Fibonacci number of days after a significant peak. The most common numbers are 34 days, 55 days, and 89 days.
On a simple calendar basis 34-days from today is December 10th, 55-days is December 31, and basis 89-days we’re up at February 3rd or so.
Since markets never perform exactly as they should, another group of market-gazers thinks that it’s the number of trading days. So would need to take the raw day count, divide by 5 and multiply times 7 to come out with trading days, plus add thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years in for three more days on top of that which might look something like this in Excel where A8 if your Fibo number: =((A8/5)*7)+3.
This pencils out to 12/26 (not making the weekend adjustments here) which would really mean around 12/28 basis the 34 day Fibo date. January 25 or March 13th for the 55 and 89 day sequences.
But then again, by the time you figure in all the other possibilities (lunar cycles work, on-balance volume studies, relative strength indicators, the MACD, fast and slow stochastics…etc.) market technicians usually cover the board so that a mathematical “cause” for every date on the calendar is possible.
The Dow closed Thursday within spitting distance of the October 22 close of 10,081.31 and on an intraday basis was still 140-odd points short of October 15th intraday peak.
If the market doesn’t hurry up a bit, we will get to the 34 calendar day Fibo on 11/25, the 34 day trading Fibo around 12/9 while the trading day Fibos would be out at 1/10 and 2/26. My, how that calendar gets covered up with bets, huh?
My investment advice? Very simple & straightforward: Take whatever ‘fast money’ you were planning to bet on the market and head for the nearest Casino. For Dallas folks, for example, Shreveport’s got some nice spots. Try betting Fibo numbers on roulette and enjoy the good food and drink. I’ve had decent luck on 34 in the past and best of all, there’s no management commission involved.
The chance of coming home broke is about even, since to my way of thinking, only a madman would bet on stock growth when job growth is globally nil. Consider taking in a show or two, also. The song and dance down on the street is a little old by now. Especially when you can read how the G-20 thinks it’s too early to take the global economy off life support… Sheer genius on their part, for sure.
November 5th Date
It’s becoming clear - at least to me - that the events of October 25′ish (Obama declares National Flu Emergency) and the November 5 date where “Martial Laws Declared in Ukraine over Mystery Epidemic” is likely the stuff which the predictive linguistics were pointing to.
Al the lockdown language is there, too. As in this Time article here.
While some blogs are referencing “pneumonic plague” outbreak, the WHO hasn’t yet, far as I’ve been able to tell.
Reader note on point:
“I had a check up yesterday with my doctor and she asked if I wanted a flu shot and I told her I had never taken one and wasn’t starting now. She - I swear - looked relieved at my answer. She then checked my records and stated “you have had the pneumonia shot thats great.” Just one of those interesting little things that back your update.
Tragedy at Fort Hood
Afghan Failure Possible
I don’t know if you’ve thought this one through yet (it’s early - we understand) but when I see a headline like “Gordon Brown: risk of British failure in Afghanistan is real” comes along it implies something else: US failure in Afghanistan would likely be a concurrent development. But hey, it only took the Russian 10-years to figure out the country was ‘unwinnable’.
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Meantime, not much coverage in the West of “Saudi Jets bomb Yemeni Houthis.
I mistakenly thought that when Saudi jets started striking targets in Yemen that someone would stand up and notice “Aha! new war!” But I was mistaken. Yemen must not have enough oil, eh?
Slipping Toward Showdown
Meantime, the IAEA says Iran has a key piece of technology that would push them along the development path toward nuclear missiles. Clocks ticking on this one, for sure. Israel’s patience wears thin as this story in today’s Jerusalem Post underscores.
Migrantmandering
You know what “gerrymandering” is, right? That’s where one political party, or another, redraws the lines of an elective districts to give one side political advantage. So fast-forward to this week in Washington where the democorps have kept the Census from asking the ugly question “Are you a U.S. citizen?” - to the dismay of the republicorps who were pressing for it to be included.
Fine theatrics, huh? Deserves a new word.
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Meantime, I’ve been reading over the proposed Census questions and discussion of how to fill out the forms (76 pages of .PDF here).
I have to admit a high level of disappointment that there are specific questions about “Hispanic Origin (See pages 4 & 11) while other minorities (Black/Africa-America, Chinese, Japanese, and in my case Danish & Scottish ancestry) don’t merit such specialized treatment.
What ever happened to true equality in America? Or is this what ’some are more equal than others’ is all about? I’ll send 10 kroner to the first Scandinavian action group that sues for forms in Norwegian or Danish. Reverse discrimination is, after all, still…what?
Swiss Cheese or Software Department
The headline “Microsoft to fix holes in Windows, Office” advising of six security patches to come next week has me wondering which has more holes. I’ll take a pickle with that, too.
Spendroids
People lining up overnight outside a Verizon store to be the first to buy the new Motorola Droid?
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Is the word “gullible” in the dictionary?