Along about the middle of each month we begin one of our breakfast of champions with a short discussion of how things are going down on the docks. I hit the press release circuit which the MainStreamMedia reports and insist (patiently) that there other-than-government sources which will tell you how the wind’s blowing through the economy.
Take, for example, the October figures from the Port of Long Beach: Inbound container traffic is down 22.4% compared with year ago levels when you look at TEU’s (twenty foot [container] equivalents. The good news – such as it is – has to be the export (outbound loaded) for October was down only 10.1%. And the shuffling of empties has slowed, too: Down 37.6%.
Across the viaduct, the competition at the Port of Los Angeles is celebrating with headlines like “Port of Los Angeles reports strongest monthly cargo volumes for 2009 calendar year to date.”
“Containers shipped through the Port of Los Angeles last month increased 10.9 percent compared to September, making October the strongest month yet for the Port this calendar year. Both containerized imports and exports reached their highest levels for 2009, with loaded outbound containers seeing an 11.8 percent rise over October 2008 volumes. Still, loaded inbound containers were 8.3 percent below October 2008 levels.
Despite a reporting period that included a weeklong observance of a Chinese holiday, the total number of Twenty-Foot Equivalent (20-foot containers or “TEUs”) imported and exported through the Port of Los Angeles in October was 647,423.70. Total container volumes were 10.9 percent above September 2009 levels; loaded imports were up 9.6 percent and loaded exports were up 7.4 percent over the previous month.
Year to date in 2009, total TEU volume is at 5,606,798.65, 15.4 percent lower than the same 10-month period in 2008. Tracking by the Port’s fiscal year beginning July 2009, container volumes are 15.2 percent lower than 2008.
Before you pop the champagne, loaded inbound containers were down 8.7% compared with 2008 and what they don’t mention is that October 2008 was down about 4% from 2007…and October 2007 in turn was down more than 8% from October of 2006…and 2006 seems like it was the last ‘good’ year on the LA docks, although the Port of LA press release doesn’t mention that. Calendar year 2007 was down only a tad from 2006, but from there, things headed down hill. But don’t let me rain on the statistical blip just because it’s getting to the time of year when I wear a Grinch suit and scare the cats.
Heading north up the ILWU’s west side, we find Oakland was down 6.7% in October and down 11.1% year-to-date. They’d been down YTD 6.4% last year.
I’ve always gotten on well with longshoremen, BTW. Interviewed Harry Bridges back during the early 70′s West Coast shutdown. Great guy and he had some fine insights into the changing relationship of workers to the ownership class like this one:
“”Why should we take it upon ourselves to pick up the pieces after industry discards people for machines? Isn’t it about time unions got in there before the fact to insist that there must be some obligation to people in all this?”
Between guys like Bridges (not to mention Eric Hoffer) and the gangs that used to have a boilermaker after work now and then at the old Nifty’s Diner down on Harbor Island in Seattle the even trade between a day’s work and a day’s wages seemed in good hands. Here lately, when I read reports about mythical productivity I wonder what legendary union leaders would have thought of imputing a productivity jump from processor speeds.
And no, I’m not saying kind things about labor just because I’ve met some outstanding labor leaders. It’s because the folks who did (and still do) work in this country often have a clearer vision of the relationship between work and money than the gangs of lawyers that inhabit capitols. Which could have something to do with why the corporate types want to outsource whatever real work they can…lest their scamming be ratted out.
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Continuing up the coast, Portland hasn’t figured out how to turn on the calculator yet this month. If they figure it out today they’ll maybe post October numbers here.
Tacoma is reporting foreign container traffic down 19.3% for the month with domestic down 9.3%
The Port of Seattle was up actually up 6% for the month of October, but remains down 11.9% year to date.
Take as a whole, no sign of a big recovery – some small shifts in traffic patterns, but I expect not too much overtime on the docks. Which is worrisome when you think about it: I’ve warned you before about Grim Reaper Does Christmas this year. I can see the headlines already: “Slaying of the Sleigh!”
Instead of cookies and milk being left out for Santa this year, a glass of water and a couple of Vicodin will be more in order.
PeePeeAye
Which then moves us along to the day’s next headache: The Producer Price Numbers. May I have the clickvelope, please?
“The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a 0.6-percent decline in September and a 1.7-percent rise in August. In October, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.3 percent and the crude goods index increased 5.4 percent. On an unadjusted basis, from October 2008 to October 2009, prices for finished goods fell 1.9 percent, the eleventh consecutive month of year- over-year declines.
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Finished goods
The October increase in the index for finished goods can be attributed to higher prices for energy and food, both of which moved up 1.6 percent. By contrast, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy declined 0.6 percent.
Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods advanced 1.6 percent in October compared with a 2.4-percent drop in the previous month. Almost half of the increase can be traced to the gasoline index, which climbed 1.9 percent. Rising prices for residential electric power and liquefied petroleum gas also contributed to the advance in the finished energy goods index. (See table 2.)
Finished foods: Finished consumer food prices rose 1.6 percent in October after edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier. Accounting for about half of the increase, the index for fresh and dry vegetables jumped 24.2 percent. Higher prices for fresh fruits and melons also contributed to the advance in the finished consumer foods index.
Finished core: In October, the index for finished goods less foods and energy moved down 0.6 percent, its second consecutive decrease. Lower prices for light motor trucks and passenger cars led the October decline, falling 5.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. In accordance with usual practice, most new-model-year passenger cars and light motor trucks were introduced into the PPI in October. (See Report on Quality Changes for 2010 Model Vehicles, USDL 09-1400.)
Intermediate goods
The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components moved up 0.3 percent in October, its third straight monthly advance. The October rise can be traced to higher prices for intermediate energy goods, which climbed 2.3 percent. By contrast, the indexes for both intermediate goods less foods and energy and for intermediate foods and feeds decreased 0.2 percent. On a 12-month basis, prices for intermediate goods fell 7.5 percent in October. This is the third consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines following a record 15.1- percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009. (See table B.)
Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods advanced 2.3 percent in October after falling 2.1 percent in September. About one-fifth of this increase can be traced to a 5.5-percent rise in diesel fuel prices. Higher prices for natural gas to electric utilities and commercial electric power also contributed to the advance in the intermediate energy goods index. (See table 2.)
Crude goods
The Producer Price Index for Crude Materials for Further Processing increased 5.4 percent in October after falling 2.1 percent in September. For the 3-month period ending in October, crude material prices rose 7.1 percent after advancing 4.1 percent in the 3 months ending in July. The monthly October rise was broad based, with prices for crude energy materials jumping 8.3 percent, the index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs moving up 5.2 percent, and prices for crude nonfood materials less energy increasing 0.5 percent. (See table B.)
Crude energy: The index for crude energy materials increased 8.3 percent in October. From July to October, this index rose 9.5 percent, compared with an 11.8-percent rise in the 3 months ending in July. Accounting for about sixty percent of the monthly October increase, the natural gas index moved up 16.3 percent. Higher prices for both crude petroleum and coal also contributed to the advance in the crude energy materials index. (See table 2.)
Crude foods: The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs increased 5.2 percent in October. This index moved up 2.4 percent in the most recent 3-month period compared with a 6.0-percent decline in the previous 3-month period. In October, a 9.0-percent rise in the grains index led the advance in the crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs index. Higher prices for slaughter poultry were also a factor in this increase.
Crude core: The index for crude nonfood materials less energy rose 0.5 percent in October, and 10.4 percent for the 3 months ending in October. Similarly, for the 3 months ending in July, prices climbed 10.8 percent. A major contributor to the monthly October increase was the gold ores index, which rose 5.4 percent.
What does it all mean? Remember (not to harp on this, but…) global synchronized inflation seems to be game on now…so that finished goods are only down 1.9% annualized YoY means what? Printing money is again offsetting incipient deflation and we may be able to paper our way through this mess yet. At least until the commercial paper bundles start taking down big institutions, but no point getting ahead of the play by looking at the libretto. We just sit back and enjoy the show.
If you thought this was fun, be sure and drop by tomorrow as the Prince of Mirth unveils the CPI numbers. Another knee-slapper, for sure…only question is whether it’ll be a LOL or ROFLOL.
Market Ahead
The Dow yesterday hit an intraday high of 10,434 – which means any old time in here, things could turn down in an ugly way. The good news is that if it’s the high for this bounce off the March 2009 lows, our crash dates (37 days, 55 days, 37 trading days and 55 trading days) are all out there in January or early February, although I don’t feel like playing the short side of thing. This is NOT investment advice…
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Gold down about 8 means by the Ure Ratio the Dow oughta drop ten times that or about 80 near the open plus or minus noise traders.
With Friends Like This, 1
An NFL owner has been fined for flipping off fans.
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Sports in general, and football & hockey in particular, have always struck me as a huge waste of time & energy. It’s thinly veiled ritualized warfare where the goal is to slam people down who get in the way (fine training for corporate life, I suppose) or beat people with sticks, which may track hockey fans into law enforcement careers. Next time you want to get even with a crass sports owner the best payback I can think of is heading for The History Channel or Discovery and put information – not ritualized warfare into your head.
Except the last inning of the World Serious or the final 2-minutes which turns to 20 (or more) of the Super Bored. But seriously (or mostly so) next time you’re watching sports ask yourself “What’s my motivation here and what am I getting out of this?” We know you’re being separated from your individuality and cash; I mean beyond that stuff…
With Friends Like This, 2
See where the governor of NY is not happy with the Obama administration for trying the 9/11 suspects in the Big Apple.
The way I’ve got this figured, “If you can’t say something nice…don’t say anything at all.” Unless, of course you’ve got aspirations to higher office….
Saving the Auto Industry
Politico has been counting cars – in the presidential motorcade off in China. 71-they figure it to be. Is that excessive? Yes…and no. Yes if you’re trying to cut greenhouse gases; no if you’re secretly still bailing out the auto industry. See how yin and yang work?
Hungry for News
Word that 17,000 children per day die for lack of food shouldn’t come as a surprise. Nor should the international conference on point in Rome.
From the standpoint of aliens watching Ant Farm Earth I can almost hear the dialog: “How long before they figure out this is the Feed & Breed question on the evolution test, do you think?”
I think I’ll skip lunch.
Police State Notes
Our reader in the far, far northeast has a question:
“what do you think of border patrol setting up checkpoints 99 miles inside us border?
they’re doing it in vt & nh on interstates 91 and 89, at White River, Vt and Lebanon, NH
so they catch a few sad illegals…
any bad guys with half a brain can scoot around the checkpoints on state roads and be on their merry way..
whats the point? sheep conditioning?
well, I got my wood split, back to stacking…
Well, as everyone knows, especially at this time of year, there’s a horrible problem with immigrant hockey players sneaking into the US to work illegally. In fact, some reports have it that as much as 10% of Canada’s population has come across the border at some point to support these migrants who send money home to Canada.
Seriously (or nearly so) It points out how seriously the Obama administration is proactively preventing Main and New Hampshire from being overrun with illegals from New Brunswick. Be careful how you answer, eh hoser? It’s not a police state. It’s a joke.