Over the past couple of days, several people have written in saying the Ure Ratio may not be working. If you’ve been paying attention, the ration says that the move in the price of gold times 10 is about where the Dow should go.
We ought to see a fine test of the ratio at the open this morning since the price of gold is down about $5 bucks as I write this, but check the gold price at the top of the page just before the open to see how it works out. The ratio is not a hard & fast thing; just an indicator of how I shade my expectations for the day. It’s not flawless, but it’s a start.
A bit of a comeback in the outlook after the unemployment number for the week came in unchanged:
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.3 percent for the week ending Nov. 7, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 4.3 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 7 was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,650,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,711,500, a decrease of 83,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 5,795,000. “
—
One reason the Dow may falter a bit today is president Obama is suggesting that the nation faces a growing chance of a double-dip recession if government doesn’t rein in mounting public debt. My guess is someone sent him the Meredith Whitney interview on CNBC and he’s shading expectations.
—
The problem with government debt is that there’s really no way to rein it in since a good chunk of it is likely our own government, intervening through proxies, to buy our own paper – thus sustaining the illusion that there’s demand for dollar-denominated debt.
A visit to the TreasuryDirect website reveals the present Public Debt to the Penny is running a little more than $12-trillion dollars. While once-upon-a-time the US Gross Domestic Product was running $13-trillion, that was before the National Foreclosure and Layoff Festival kicked into high gear from 2007 onward – featuring for your dining and dancing pleasure the jobless recovery we’re in now. Nowadays, I expect real GDP is down around $11.5 trillion, but that’s just a dart because I’m too lazy to really pencil it out.
My point is that GDP = Public Debt is not a good thing. It would be like you (and your spouse if you have one) having to work an entire year to pay off all your debts; made especially comical because of all the federal level talk about ‘balanced budgets’ which sorry to report ain’t never been real in the first place.
The only reason the Capitol reprobates can get away with such nonsense is the off budget accounting tricks, something the Heritage Foundation has been harping on since 1985… but of course, they don’t need to raise campaign dough, so there you have it.
Swell Healthcare
I don’t mean swell like ‘good’…I mean swell as in twisted knee…or in this case a twisted healthcare bill that’s up to 2,074 pages. But as a Politico report notes, 14 pages of that is index...
—
You know, it occurred to me that someone could try to read everything put together in Washington – and they would never catch up, even with a speed reading course…
Simple Answers Department
Word that “California requires TVs to be more energy efficient” got me to putting on my inventor’s cap this morning.
Then it came to me – in a flash – we just unplug them and presto! 100% energy efficient!
Yeah, yeah, won’t work in California because people would have to learn to read (dangerous step toward critical think, that).
Drips of News
Some mornings I think I should be writing for SNL or a good standup comic. There are so many stories that scream “this could be funny!” Take, for example Time’s story that “Obama Would Fire Afpak Leaker.”
The comic stands up to announce: “President won’t take a leak…” (rim shot)
—
Please: This is serious stuff (or nearly so) what with president Karzai pledging strides in security and corruption fighting. It’s oh such a …you know…set-up to surging kinda thing. Sit on your wallet.
Doing Blow
So what is coverage like in the MSM when Washington and Oregon have 100+ MPH winds and hurricane force winds and the largest waves ever recorded on the coast? Nada…zilch. Did anyone notice more wind and rain is coming? Not outside federal region X. Hurricane force winds again on the Oregon coast is in store.
But people on the East Coast are still gah-gah over Tropical Storm Ida…which brings me to considering how the Northwest could change its profile a bit: Start naming Pacific storms.
Maybe even come up with a snazzy new name for them: I kinda like the word “Hurphoon” although I could live with “Tycane”. And then name them after political leaders so the idea of wind comes across really clearly…
Dueling Santa’s Department
See this morning’s article in the NY Post about how Wal-Mart and Amazon are playing discounter roulette.
—
Reminds me: My legal counsel suggested that I retract my suggestion about leaking a couple of Vicodin and a glass of water in lieu or cookies and milk this year.
“Branding issues plus offering medical advice on a scheduled drug is a no-no.”
OK, I countered, how about a couple of aspirin? “Nope, may cause stomach problems if not taken with food.”
Back to cookies? “Yeah, probably the best idea but be sure and leave the box out in plain sight in case Santa has any allergy sensitivities and see if you can get cookies that aren’t made in a facility that processes peanuts and tree nuts, just to be on the safe side.”
I’ll put a bottle of Benadryl out, but unopened. What if the fat guy is diabetic? “If you’ve left the cookie box out, we should be safe – if Elaine bakes them, have her leave the recipe out and circled but not too big a concern since there’s protein in the milk. Might leave a piece of cheese, just to be safe there…and no more than three cookies, or we open up to exposure for OCD food suits…”
This is how my days go lately.