Bradley versus Elliott! Sounds like a prize fight – and I suppose in a sense it is. But, before I ramble to far into the weeds, let’s back up: Had a couple of great conversations yesterday with folks who are seeing a huge showdown for technical indicators in the works over the next couple of months. If you have anything left over to invest in this steaming lump of…oops! Any serious investor (sounds better, huh?) should be aware of the gigantic conflict.
One of my conversations was with Arch Crawford (www.crawfordperspectives.com) who notes that the Bradley Indicator had just very recently issues a buy signal and was looking for the market to extend recent gains into as late as March next year. That’s not Arch’s work – but his work as mentioned previously puts next July-early September on the board as some of the worst astro-econ conditions the country has seen in more than 200 years. So if you are waiting for the next brush with the financial end of the world, that’s a good one to plan around: Be ready/short/or out by mid July 2010. I may go on a long-term put buying spree about then, but remember that the size of change out there is such that we ought to – a year from now – be wondering about whether the markets themselves will be meaningful trading vehicles. In other words, there’s an assumption in most financial decisions that there will be active markets where gains can be cashed in and so forth. May be a faulty assumption…you following me?
On the other hand, chatting with Robin Landry, I’ve heard – and this is only a heard, that Bob Prechter is either at (or very near to) a sell signal in Elliott Wave terms. This being the case, although you’d need to subscribe to his services (elsewhere on this page) for specifics, it would seem to favor my personal outlook which would be for a decline down into the January (maybe February) timeframe and then a rousing rally to the August/early September period next year before this odiferous stuff hits the round rotating machine.
Another reader asks:
“Hey George, I see Elliott Wave references on your site. Prechter is calling for a deflationary depression based on more debt than dollars in existence and people wanting to be paid back in dollars.
With no velocity and willing lenders and borrowers and defaults to accelerate in the future how is it you see a hyperinflationary scenario in the next few years?”
The answer is simple: Hyperinflation is a choice to bail out bankers – the only one that makes sense. So – put an idiot at the money-printing press, cobble up mandatory money velocity programs like health care (jail for no health care ins.) and what do you have? The Robert Mugabe School of Economics.
Oh – and $5,000 gold. Or more….
Meantime, gold up $4.50 means the Dow should rally 45 at the open – or thereabouts using the Ure Ratio…. (Dow moves approximate 10X gold price change).
Real GDP
Well…as real as they’re going to admit to, anyway…
“Real gross domestic product – the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in private inventory investment, in exports, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending.
Yeah, sure, right, you bet’cha…whatever. Tell it to folks under the overpasses or living in cars being repo’ed.
Upping the Bid on HealthScare
I see where Joe Lieberman is digging in his heels on the Health Care bill. Old cynical George: figures it’s just campaign fund raising at its most obvious. Why if Landrieu can get $300-million for her state….
ClimateGate
There’s now some discussion about whether the climategate story I mentioned yesterday ought to have an official investigation started to explore the systematic abuse of the scientific process. Junk science it’s called. Quick! Look shocked, would’ja?
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So let me get this right: The beneficiaries of checkbook government are going to do something objective for a change? Ho, ho, ho – a seasonal knee-slapper, that one…
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More evidence of global cooling/solar minima? Go look at the number of sunspots on Space Weather: zip – nada – nicht – kaput – zilch…oh, you’re a sharp one figuring this out without hints, aren’t you?
Quaker
6.8 – Tonga. I can hardly wait to see the earthquake data chart from our number-crunching correspondent come the end of the month. How long since we had a day without a 5+?
Butt Covering
“Iraq inquiry told of ‘clear’ threat from Saddam Hussein” as the Brits try to figure out what they were doing in Iraq. Happens when you don’t get the big oil deals…this blame placing. Dandy sport.
Meantime, His O’ness is planning to make an Afghan surge announcement December 1st or so.
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”We’re going to send the whole states of Michigan and Oregon because the threat to freedom is so grave…” Oh, maybe he won’t go that far. But clearly, war building is good for hiring in the death industries and another terror attack would sure grease the skids for expanding TSA hiring and….Where’d I put my pill?
Global Anarchy
Of course with the “Philippines declares state of emergency as massacre victims mount” I won’t say “Told you so!” when I pointed you to Robert Kaplan’s book the Coming Anarchy (short version in the Atlantic Monthly) in 1994.
You can either be serious about contingency planning now or under the bus later – your karma will decide, I reckon.
We’ll know the Philippines is a goner if Art Bell moves back to the States from Manila.