Maybe you’re thinking Book of Numbers…but go with me on this, trying to build an image here – this Day of Numbers seems likely to be the same old testament to the so-called recovery. The Number of Numbers comes out this afternoon – which is 99% certain to be the same interest rate the Fed has had all along when the FOMC returns its verdict. Reading the Fed statement is kind of like scrying entails of small animals to rate watchers.
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But, until Ben (et al) come down from Rate Mountain with the tablet for the coming month, we have to be satisfied a whole parcel of press releases starting with the Cost of Living /Consumer Price Index pronounced by the Labor Department:
“On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months the index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment, the first positive 12-month change since February 2009.
The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was due to a 4.1 percent increase in the energy index. The index for gasoline rose sharply and the indexes for electricity, fuel oil, and natural gas also increased, creating the fourth consecutive rise in the energy index and the largest increase since August. In contrast, the index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in November, after ten consecutive monthly increases. Declines in shelter indexes offset increases in the indexes for new and used motor vehicles, medical care, airline fares, and tobacco.
The food index rose slightly in November. As in October, the food away from home index rose modestly while the index for food at home was unchanged. Within the latter, three grocery store food groups posted increases while three declined.
The ‘all items’ index was up 1.8%, sayeth the report but against this folks on Social Security get what? Bupkis. No point going there, however. Next number, please?
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Current Account Deficit report? Sure, glad you asked…
“The U.S. current-account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—increased to $108.0 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2009 from $98.0 billion (revised) in the second quarter. The increase was more than accounted for by an increase in the deficit on goods. A small increase in net unilateral current transfers to foreigners also contributed to the higher current-account deficit. Increases in the surpluses on income and on services were partly offsetting.
Goods and services
The deficit on goods and services increased to $97.4 billion in the third quarter from $81.2 billion in the second.
Goods The deficit on goods increased to $132.1 billion in the third quarter from $115.5 billion in the second.
Goods exports increased to $263.9 billion from $246.1 billion. The increase was largely accounted for by increases in industrial supplies and materials and in automotive products. Capital goods and consumer goods also increased.
Goods imports increased to $396.1 billion from $361.6 billion. The increase was largely accounted for by increases in industrial supplies and materials, mostly in petroleum and products, and in automotive products. Capital goods and consumer goods also increased.
Services
The surplus on services increased to $34.8 billion in the third quarter from $34.2 billion in the second.
Services exports increased to $128.6 billion from $125.3 billion. The increase was mostly accounted for by increases in travel, in “other” private services (such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services), in “other” transportation (such as freight and port services), and in royalties and license fees.
Services imports increased to $93.9 billion from $91.0 billion. The increase was mostly accounted for by increases in “other” private services, in travel, in “other” transportation, and in direct defense expenditures.”
Yeah, yeah…but let’s skip down to the section called “Foreign-owned assets in the United States” because this is where the action is if you’re watching the great game of international financial brinksmanship:
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“Foreign-owned assets in the United States increased $332.4 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $14.6 billion in the second.
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U.S. liabilities to foreigners reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers increased $127.0 billion in the third quarter, following a decrease of $178.9 billion in the second. (Examples of these liabilities are deposits of foreign residents at banks in the United States and loans by banks abroad to banks and securities brokers in the United States.)
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Net sales of U.S. Treasury securities by private foreigners were $9.2 billion in the third quarter, down from $22.8 billion in the second.
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Net purchases of U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities by private foreigners were $24.7 billion in the third quarter, up from $13.9 billion in the second. Net foreign purchases of U.S. stocks were $48.6 billion, up from $35.6 billion. Net foreign purchases of U.S. federally sponsored agency bonds were $6.6 billion, up from $0.3 billion. Net foreign sales of U.S. corporate bonds were $30.4 billion, up from $22.0 billion.
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Foreign direct investment in the United States increased $40.0 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $37.0 billion in the second. The pickup was more than accounted for by larger increases in reinvested earnings and, to a much lesser extent, in net equity capital investment in the United States. In contrast, net intercompany debt investment in the United States slowed.
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Foreign official assets in the United States increased $123.6 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $124.3 billion in the second. The third-quarter increase includes, as part of “other” U.S. government liabilities, a $47.6 billion increase associated with the allocation of SDRs to the United States.
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Transactions in U.S. currency shifted to net shipments to foreign countries of $4.2 billion in the third quarter from net shipments to the United States of $1.9 billion in the second.
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The statistical discrepancy—errors and omissions in recorded transactions—was $70.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with $35.4 billion in the second.
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In the third quarter, the U.S. dollar depreciated 5 percent on a trade-weighted quarterly average basis against a group of 7 major currencies.”
Interesting stuff, no? Next….Hmmm…what’s this one…ah…new report on newspaper revenues declining because any damn fool can buy space on a web server and rewrite the same government handouts that…ooops…giving out trade secrets here…
“Newspaper publishers experienced a single-year decline in total revenue of 8.3 percent — from $47.9 billion in 2007 to $43.9 billion in 2008. This followed a more modest decline of 2.7 percent in 2007, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today.
A major contributor to the overall loss in revenues for the industry was the decline in advertising space revenue for general newspapers, which dropped 10.2 percent — from $30.9 billion in 2007 to $27.8 billion in 2008. Revenue from newspaper subscriptions remained largely unchanged over the period, from $8.3 billion in 2007 to $8.2 billion in 2008.
These estimates come from the 2008 Service Annual Survey: Information Sector Services. The survey provides national estimates of annual revenue and expenses for industries primarily engaged in producing, processing and distributing data, which range from motion picture production to libraries.”
I’d like to end the senseless speculation that Elaine and I are going to buy the Times or Post.
Next? (Will this ever end?) Trust you saw yesterday’s Industrial Production report from the Fed?
“Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in November after having been unchanged in October. Manufacturing production advanced 1.1 percent, with broad-based gains among both durables and nondurables. The output of mines climbed 2.1 percent, but the index for utilities fell 1.8 percent, primarily as a result of lower output of gas utilities–temperatures in November were unseasonably mild and reduced the need for heating. At 99.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 5.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.7 percentage point to 71.3 percent, a rate 9.6 percentage points below its average for the period from 1972 through 2008. “
The point I’d make about this is that if you take the Production numbers – down 5.1% for the year and measure this against the (recently falling) M-3 as Trader Bart reports it over at www.nowandfutures.com,. down around zero percent presently, there’s no way the Fed can even think about raising rates yet without throwing the world into another economic contraction.
And then last, but not least. we have this morning’s Housing report from Census:
“BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000. This is 6.0 percent (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 551,000, but is 7.3 percent (±1.8%) below the November 2008 estimate of 630,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 473,000; this is 5.3 percent (±1.1%) above the revised October figure of 449,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 86,000 in November.
HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 8.9 percent (±10.2%)* above the revised October estimate of 527,000, but is 12.4 percent (±9.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 655,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 482,000; this is 2.1 percent (±9.2%)* above the revised October figure of 472,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 83,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000. This is 8.7 percent (±13.7%)* above the revised October estimate of 745,000, but is 25.3 percent (±10.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 1,084,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 524,000; this is unchanged (±11.7%)*compared with the revised October figure. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 270,000.
I wasn’t kidding about this being the Day of Numbers…here, you keep reading while I go find a new battery for the calculator…OMG What’s THIS???!!!
Time Picks Ben
Bernanke as Man of the Year. Wonder if the major polling organizations have measured to see if Bernanke is more popular than president O? Shows what my endorsement of two weeks ago is worth, though, doesn’t it?
Grand Jury Picks Raj
NYPost has good coverage on the grand jury indictment of a hedge fund manager who is accused of trading on inside information.
Consumers Pick Electronics
“Philips sees pick-up in Consumer Electronics sales“. So what else is there?
Pick a Peak for Twitter?
“No pick-up in Twitter’s U.S. traffic in November” says the WaPo.
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Gotta wonder if someone besides me has figured out that 99.9% of texting is a waste of time that doesn’t qualify under one of Ure’s Tests of Worthiness against which all activities are measured…which are?
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Does the activity increase personal revenue? (Like going to work does that, OK?)
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Does it reduce expenses? (No buying junk does that)
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Does it contribute to your current business plan?
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Does it educate in a way that can be leveraged in the future?
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Is it sleep, hobby, deliberate music input, or deep relaxation/meditation?
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Does it medicate or sexually satisfy?
Except for the odd hook-up (on this last and in both senses of the word ‘hook-up’), I don’t see the use of texting, but hell, I’m an old fart. My list of things to do is pretty simple and I suppose Pavlovian; old dogs, tricks, etc…
Truth In Labeling
“SF Mayor backs radiation labels for cell phones” says a report this morning.
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What I find bizarre is that people will refuse an untested vaccine yet when the science is still being debated on cell phones, people spend hours a day with them. Strange damn rats, we is…it’s a-maze -ing, if’n you know what I mean.
Climate Change is a Riot
Story in the NY Times this morning goes into some detail about hundreds arrested at the Copenhagen Climate meetings. So once again, the buzz on the net proves prescient.
Cool Ramblings, 2
Hmmm…we’ll start with a dandy reader email:
“Dear Mr. Ure, Here is a link from the BBC South Asia explaining that a UN body has predicted Himalayan glacier disappearances by 2035 whereas the supporting Russian academic work quoted forecasts retreats by 2350. Please inform the Copenhagen delegation immediately so as they may indulge in the bottled glacial spring water without guilt!”
Got to have been a typo by the one-world-government crowd, don’tcha think?
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Several people wrote in and told me “George! George! You’re wrong! There is a sunspot and it’s part of Cycle 24! You must confess the error of your ways!”
Well, no, not just yet thanks. You see, if you look at some of the older forecasts for Cycle 24, we ought to be having all kinds of flares at the same time by now – easily five but more like 10- or more going off. Except that the predictions keep sliding back. So until I can ‘work the world on 10-watts” on the 10-meter ham bands I haven’t been in a particular hurry to get my 55-foot tower and tri-band quad antenna up. What’s the point, know what I mean? The only two points about watching sunspots are a) ham radio gets better (to a point) when sunspots are active and b) has something to do with the weather cooling on earth which leads to mass starvation and such, but of course that pales in comparison to the ham radio implications. (Me? Obsess with my hobby? Moi?)
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Technical note: This all presumes that you know that in radio propagation, the MUF (which stands for maximum Useable Frequency) goes up during the Solar Maxima, not to be confused with a yellow Nissan product, yeah? So ham radio types maybe will find a good opening on 21 MHz here and there, but 14 MHz is about all the better things get. When the Maxima gets here, then 28 MHz and above ‘get hot’ and working the world with about the same power levels as a large flashlight becomes real doable and fun. Till then, if I want to talk to someone in Tahiti, it means getting up in the middle of the night and pounding out Morse code down on the low end of the 40-meter band around 7.025 Mhz or so. Ham radio is an entirely cool hobby so run over to www.arrl.org and find out more about it – and no, Morse code is not required for a ham license anymore, but if you try it and like it, hit www.fists.org which is the International More Preservation Society and tell # 13,106 sent you. Where were we? Oh yes…
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Hold cool is being Canadian? Well…er…..let’s not go there...let’s go to Calgary where we can say -32.4 which breaks a record from 1893 and let it go at that, shall we?
I remember the old days when an American could make fun of Canadian politics, but it seems perfectly reasonable anymore. Especially compared to what we have here lately…
Constitution Free Zone, Redux
I told you yesterday how as part of the plan to close down the penal colony in Cuba that Gitmo detainees were being moved to Illinois (a kind of punishment of its onw)? Well, now the ACLU is asking – in effect – “so if they’re on US soil tell us again why they don’t have Constitutional Rights which include trials and so forth?“
A lot of people don’t like the ACLU, but they have always been really clear that they defend Constitutional Rights being taken from those least able to defend those rights. It just hasn’t gotten to most of us Middle Class types yet, so they get marginalized. Remember “First they came for the Gypsies, then they came for the….”?
Duck!
The J-Post says the “US to drill Iranian attack scenario“. The idea is that the test would see how a particular weapons system (the Ground-based Mid-course Defense – GMD) system would do.
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The way I have it figured, if the economy keeps headed where it is, there’ll be no point to nuking or bombing pretty quick – we’ll do ourselves in with a financial implosion. But then again, maybe Tehran and North Korea have figured that out.
Going for 18, Maybe?
Fox has this “Report: Tiger Woods ‘On the Edge” As New Mistress Named“. I was only kidding about 18 holes but seems to me that we’re waiting on the 15th tee now…