Coping: With the Year Ahead

I’m starting to pull together the “Other” view of the economy – the one that will make it into next weekend’s “Annual Forecast Issue” of Peoplenomics.  A couple of interesting points to ponder on even if you’re either broke and can’t afford to subscribe (or you’re just a chintzy chiseler at heart always looking for a free lunch in which case it’s folks like you that lead to governments like this…).

The new Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, the latest from Gerald Celente’s work, and others are certain good grist for the mill.  But two really important items to ponder I think are the “Special Report – Year Ahead:  Can You Handle The Truth?” from David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist up at Gluskin-Sheff.  (www.gluskinsheff.com).

After correctly noting that there’s a developing consensus about what 2010 should be like (and worrying quite correctly the consensus will be – surprise here -wrong) he then makes this very ‘George-like’ observation about whether we’re in a recession or something worse…you know…the “D” word…

“Mainstream economists called this downturn “The Great Recession”. This is truly a gentle way of saying “Depression”. When we can have the courage to come to grips with the fact that we did in fact experience a depression of sorts, which is by definition a credit event, then and only then can we draw a conclusion that a sustainable recovery will not get underway until the ratio of household credit to personal disposable income reverts to the mean (and goes to an excess in the opposite direction). I know it sounds harsh, but we shall endure — believe it. Transition is rarely without pain.

 

The ratio of household debt to disposable income is up from a 30% ratio back in the 1950s to 125% today (though down from 139% at the peak in 2007). Mean reverting to a ratio closer to 60% means that the deleveraging process will be a multi-year event and by the time it is over, more than $7 trillion in additional household credit will have to be extinguished. For more on this see the unbelievably grotesque article on the front page of last Thursday’s (December 10) Wall Street Journal — The New American Dream.”

If you don’t rush off to sign up for Rosenberg’s weekly briefing (“Breakfast with Dave”) you probably shouldn’t be investing more than Monopoly Money, or Zimbabwe Dollars – he’s that good.

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Young people today have no concept of what the phrase “sound like a broken record” means, since many have only heard that such things once existed.  A more proper term might be “At the risk of hitting ‘repeat’ again…I nevertheless have to point out that wading through a fair bit on today’s economy I am yet to be convinced that we’re in anything other than a retooled Depression.

The differences with the 1929-1943 (or arguably even beyond) event are starting to stack up in pretty stark relief:

• When banks failed in the 1930′s, the losses were both immediate and personal to the tune of about $475 per capita on a constant dollar basis.  In this Greater Depression, the short term losses penciled in at $650 per person on a constant dollar basis, but there has been so much ‘hide the sausage’ on the tab for this – first giving out money, then getting repayments, but then taking over parts of companies and so forth – that it’s become nearly impossible to keep straight what the true costs are.

• But one thing is almost certain:  banks and banksters – having discovered a revolving credit facility can be had, will no doubt pay back their TARP money now to keep bonuses out from under the microscope and then (bet me?) they’ll be back for more free lunch in the Spring thanks to your generosity and the campaign contribution needs of congress which stands next fall.

• Whatever the long-term picture looked like in 1935, it sure looks that way now with outfits like Shell announcing they were planning to roll the grenades (in a manner of speaking) in Houston and outsource another slug of office jobs.  No, the jobs picture will not perk up anytime soon because of the political problems.  Specifically that the companies which give the most to campaigns take the most in jobs and government dough; common sense?  Sorry about that…

One upon a time – and maybe still true today, I don’t hang around with radio station programmers much – program directors of rock & roll radio stations in Canada had to place so much content on their airwaves that was done by Canadian musicians.  And some damn fine ones, at that.  Like who?  Oh, the Guess Who, for one.  No question, Undun and American Woman were great tunes, but it didn’t hurt having the government decree that some X percent of music on Canadian radio stations had to be home-grown.

No one cried “foul!” but the recording industry at the time hadn’t gotten as slick as corpgov is here lately.  They were still living under the cloud of payola and when people in the industry made jokes about this record company (or that) getting the Award for the best use of Thai stick in album promotion it wasn’t entirely a joke.  (Don’t ask.)

To be sure, corpgov is a lot slicker. these days.  When tobacco companies get run out of the US for killing people with tar and nicotine, what do they do?  A few bucks here, a headquarters move there and Tah-Dah!  Huge market in an emergent country like Indonesia.   In a sense it’s like payola that would have been OK, but only in the smaller markets.  Arguably, the ascension of global business probably necessitates global regulators but that all happens under the catch-all of ‘anti-terrorism’.  The most real terror most Americans face is the check-out counter at the store.

We’ve learned from Madoff and his ilk that the Bigger the Criminal, the bigger the skate.  The one story I haven’t seen come out of that case – and likely never will – is the list of people that Madoff gave money to.  You know, like Enron’s bosses contributed – that kind of thing.  Oh well…

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The next story that seems like it will have a huge bearing on next year’s socioeconomic play is the announcement that the “Gulf States Take steps toward Monetary Union, Joint Central Bank.”

If you think that the Gulf states have figured out that a paper-backed fiat currency – in other words a currency worth something only on some government’s say so really would be more credible ifs it had a commodity behind it (like oil) then give yourself a gold star.  That’s what seems to be in play.

Not that the idea is new by any stretch; commodity-backed currencies which were harder to debase were once the norm, not the exception.  But that was long ago.

All of which is happening close enough temporally to make me wonder if indeed, the falling status of the Dollar may not be the beginnings of our context shift on the 19th of the month, but I won’t even hazard more than a wild guess on this front until at least mid-next week.

Oh-oh…getting on toward serious; I need to get over that.

Survival Beers

I mentioned a couple of days ago (or was it last week?  Damn, it’s early, huh?) that a reader was storing beer as the ultimate barter stock.  But then someone brought up the point that beer doesn’t store so good and it would mean a lot of rotating of stock – and no problem there – never a shortage of volunteers for that since we’re in the South…then Wham!  My email got slammed with comments.

“After catching Tuesday’s post regarding the search from one of your readers for a beer with a long shelf life, I thought I’d send a friendly email to steer him/her in the right direction.

One can find long shelf life beer made by a company called Unibroue, located in Canada. They specialize in bottle refermented beers, and many of their products not only last over a year, but get better with age to boot. Their Maudite amber ale has a five year shelf life, and Tres Pistoles has a three year….Alcohol content can be a bit high for some (8% to 9%), but they are very, very tasty. Lighter beers are usually only good for a year or so, but still, that is longer than average. Their products can be found at Whole Foods, Sprouts, various specialty stores, and Trader Joes (which has a custom made product from them that comes out around the holidays).

Just so you know, I do realize that I sound like a beer commercial, but I am not affiliated with them in any way. I just couldn’t resist plugging my favorite beer company.

From what I understand, there are also other refermented in bottle beers that have recently hit the shelves that your reader could search for, as well as some of the better lambics….but those can be an acquired taste.

And so, here’s to good beer…..”

Never seen a beer last that long, but I didn’t get the moniker “The Human Spnge” without cause, I suppose.  Next?  (to the sound of a beer top releasing pressure)…

“Contacted My “Beer Muse”

Due to the preservative qualities of alcohol and hop oil, no known pathogens (microorganisms which can kill you) can live in beer. So, it’s not so much an issue of the beer going bad over time, as it is a matter of when it will taste best.

Bottom-fermented lagers ( for example, American standard lagers (Budweiser, Miller, Coors, etc.), light lagers, dark lagers, black beers, bocks and doppelbocks)are put in cool storage (lager being the German verb for store or warehouse) to ferment and clarify for a number of weeks or months, after which they are bottled or kegged and ready for drinking.

The ability of a beer to age depends largely on its alcohol content, and aging is mostly a matter of flavor change, not of spoilage.

Actually, the usual way for beer to spoil is for its hop oils to break down into volatile compounds with give the beer off flavors and aromas, most commonly a skunky smell. “Skunked” beer, however, is not the result of time; this breakdown of hop oils is due to exposure to light and heat and can happen in as little time as a few hours. In fact, the process will begin as soon as the beer is exposed to light….

Concerns relative to the Alzheimer’s/Aluminum connection not withstanding… Avoid Bottled Beer… “

In general, beer should be stored in a cool place… this often means refrigeration and letting beer warm a little before you drink it (42F being optimal). As long as temperatures are kept between 35F and 60F you’re probably OK. Keep in mind that storing at the warmer end of this scale will increase any aging effects since any yeast remaining in the beer will be more active.

Finally….Getting to the point…keep it cold, and away from light….Consider beer to have a Refrigerated “Shelf Life” of 12 to 18 months…Rotate at Six Months

“If you see a beer, do it a favor, and drink it. Beer was not meant to age.”

Still more?  Sure…

“Most “hoppy” beer will last a year, due to the antiseptic nature of the hop oils.

Look at DogFishHead 90 Minute, Weyerbacher Double Simcoe, or Stone’s Ruination

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Pale_Ale 

The India pale ale version was created for those long sea voyages – with some of the brewing process occurring at sea, sloshing around. -the was a news story this year of a group trying to recreate this technique on a ship, but I didn’t hear how it turned out.

Most “high alcohol” beer will last as well. 9-11% Strong Belgian brews like Chimay, St. Bernardus, and Koenigshoven will last a long while due to the fact that, like wine and spirits, the alcohol level is too high for “critters” to survive and thrive in.

Light is really the enemy of beer, as you will see the best beer are all in dark brown/black bottles.

“They’re lightstruck,” came the short answer. Certain wavelengths of light (those around 5,000 angstroms) can turn a wonderfully aromatic beer into a skunkfest. “Hop oils have a sulf-hydryl grouping in their molecular structure,” Radzanowski explained. “When these wavelengths of light hit that, there’s a photosynthetic reaction which changes that grouping to that of the common ’skunk’ aroma. Those wavelengths are abundantly present in sunlight and fluorescent light; incandescent light is not so bad.”

Now that we have the important stuff out of the way…we can all go mount the gerbil mills for another day remembering that we thankfully not on daylight Miller Time. Or, if you’ve given up the alcohol, O’Doul’s Time.  Better living through beer chemistry.

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Send your comments to george@ure.net

The UrbanSurvival Mall:

“Live on $10,000″ A Year

With another round of layoffs due to start later this month…a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades…might I suggest a preemptive tactical move?  Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we’re all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California!  A good starting point, at least if you’ve still got $10-bucks is my e-book “How to Live on #10,000 a Year…or less!”

It’s an automatic download.  It’s written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left…  Click here for the index and details.

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It’s an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few ‘dollar stores’ and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space – like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It’s just $10 bucks here…

Pass It On

The business model of this website is base Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list…Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh?  Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course….

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 Last week’s report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)