No doubt there will be challenges on Constitutional grounds to follow, but the healthcare bill was passed today at a cost of $871 billion. If you’re thinking this is the best and worst of politicks,. the case could be made either way since “Every state got special treatment” in some way or other to get the deal this far on the one hand and it forces everyone in the country to pony up dough at some level for mandatory healthcare, but on the other we wonder what ever happened to ‘powers not specifically delegated shall remain with the States?
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Next step for the bill is conference to iron out major differences between the House and Senate measures.
Some Christmas present, huh?
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Stock futures are pointing higher, so Santa’s still working his stuff.
Whistling Past the Graveyard?
“Geithner: Job growth should resume by springtime“. Oh? And pray tell what might the new engine of economic growth be that’s going to appear that will create jobs? Healthcare employment, maybe?
“Dismal Housing States fail to halt Santa Claus rally” in Wednesday’s session headlined Fox, but stock market action is seldom a reflection of reality; most times it’s a contrary indicator since in a perfect world for investors there’s zero employment, high disposable income and runaway growth. Kinda like today’s cell-packing mollycoddled kids in grade school. But happen for the broader economy? Yeah sure, you bet’cha.
Durable & Jobs Data
On the other hand, there is something good in today’s new advance report on Durable Goods from the Census folks:
“New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $166.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second monthly increase in the last three months. This followed a 0.6 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased slightly. Computers and electronic products, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 3.7 percent to $25.7 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $175.9 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent October increase. Machinery, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $22.6 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down fourteen consecutive months, decreased $4.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $724.5 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, down thirteen of the last fourteen months, had the largest decrease, $5.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $418.1 billion.”
October data was revised upward, too. But, it seems like every time I just starting thinking bullish that’s almost always the short-term top in market, know what I mean? Some folks even write in about The Ure Indicator, LOL.
on the other hand, the shutdown of Arrow Trucking leaves an interesting question about whether we’re about to witness a dominoes like collapse of the trucking biz… forget what I said about bullish.
Look: Here’s another reason not to be a screaming bear – the weekly jobs report:
“In the week ending Dec. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 452,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 480,000. The 4-week moving average was 465,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 468,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.9 percent for the week ending Dec. 12, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.9 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 12 was 5,076,000, a decrease of 127,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,203,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,233,000, a decrease of 90,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 5,323,000.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.673 million.
My expectation for today? A rally early and then people exiting trades ahead of the long weekend for a decline toward the close. Not advice, just a dart throw.
EPA, Drugs, and Water
I often joke (well, maybe joke isn’t the right word) about what comes out of Washington DC when I ask “Is someone putting stuff in their water back there? So it’s in this context that I read the AP’s report “Feds mull regulating drugs in water“.
Of course, I don’t expect them to open up the fluoridated water debate, but there are plenty of folks who are dead set against fluoridated water for a host of reasons not the least of which include “Fluoride’s Neurological Effects: studies show there may be grave implications for Alzheimer’s, Dementia, Attention Deficit Disorder, reduced IQ in children“.
But hey – don’t let too much science get in the way lest adding things to water be reconsidered. It’s an industry, you know…
Bone-Us Season
I see where “Citigroup’s return of TARP money removes pay caps” which ought to make for a Merry Christmas for those at the top of that operation. Ditto out west as “Wells completes TARP exit“.
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All peaches & cream? No, not hardly as “Large numbers of TARP recipients skip dividend payments” – in fact 55 of them by some counts. Your tax dollars at work.
New Middle East Plan
Well-respected Middle East news source Debka.com is reporting today that “Egypt, Saudis secretly draft Palestinian statehood motion for Security Council.” Gist of it is they’d get land within pre-1967 war borders which will likely not be embraced by Israel…
If They’re Out Friends Department
If Russia is really friendly and now a capitalistic country and all, why am I reading headlines like “Russia to work on new nuclear missiles” Medvedev“?
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To my way of thinking, it’s like walking into the home of a supposed pacifist and noticing a table full of Glock parts and a bottle of Hoppe’s #9 cleaning fluid, a spray can of Royal Purple gun lube and a couple of blocks of hollow point ammo, then talking about peace, know what I mean?
You are What You Read
Say…here’s one that oughta get you to dusting off your old copy of Fahrenheit 451º – an Ed Bayley piece on how folks that sell e-books keep track of what you read and then market to your interests. Having been a long-time marketing guy in corpland I really, really like the concept. But, then again, it’s a record and the way the legal system works anymore, that means it could be used against you if there’s anything untoward, prurient, or to anti-establishment in your behavior.