This should come as no shock – the latest from the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price index:
“Data through October 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately nine months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009.
No, dear, this doesn’t mean prices are actually going up…they are only down 4% compared with year ago levels. But hey! Any port in a storm, eh?
““The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis. All in all, this report should be described as flat.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip. Before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today. Further, sales of existing homes – those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale. At the same time, housing starts remain weak, fears that the market will be swamped by a wave of foreclosures are heard and government programs aimed at the housing market will expire in the first half of 2010.”
More on real estate roulette in our Coping section today…
Is It ALL About Money?
Of course, it is! This is one of those mornings when the “Coping” section of the daily column has a lot more effort and thought behind it than the “news” portion. While it’s fun to put on the ‘news analyst hat now and again – like yesterday’s review of the M.E. chessboard which was interesting to write (and hopefully read, LOL) today there’s not too must real grist.
We’ll start with the Dow which popped up 27 points yesterday – normally a reason for rejoicing in the streets in NYC and Chicago. But the real kill-joy was the Dow Transport Index which dropped more than ½%. My friends who are better traders than me (at least as measured by bank account size; I’m winning in the ‘enjoy it department which I always figured was the whole point) instantly recognize that when the Transports start acting sketchy, that could indicate a turn is in the neighborhood under Dow Theory.
Of course, the idea that the Transports were the harbingers of things to come dated back to the time of rail lines hither and yon as the key to how much product would be coming to market. To a certain extent, that’s been modified by the internet and that brings us to eyeing the NASDOG with some suspicion since it was down quite a bit in the second half of Monday’s session before scratching and clawing its way back to a shade over break-even for the day.
Then there’s the Joe Granville followers of On-Balance-Volume; a theory that says if more people are getting out than are getting in and this goes on for some number of sessions (skryed by entrails and tea leaves to get it just so…) than the market should turn down in general. OBV is watched over time, so a bullish signed with yesterday getting 50% up volume on the NYSE and only 45% seeing down volume is just a one-day sample and not a case to get long or short in and of itself. But with the transports down and the NASDOG with it, makes it hardly time to be committing the widow and orphan funds; so I’d speculate while muttering “This ain’t financial advise…this is counseling for your gambling addiction.”
Check back just before the open (8:30 AM Eastern, corrected for wherever you are) and I’ll writer up something on the biggest number due out today: The Case Schiller/S&P Housing Price Survey. If you’re looking for good news, don’t hold your breathe for reasons that will become chillingly clear when you read today’s Coping section below.
Pay To Watch
America’s not the land of opportunity anymore. It’s now the land of revenue streams. I faced up to this fact a few years back when I was one of those software company six-figure types and I was working the problem of “How do we keep getting paid for the software once sold since ongoing development work is required?” Won’t bore you with the answer, but what was once a dandy model use by free television (advertising revenues did all the work) the appearance of the internet has scuttled about half of all revenue streams from two decades ago and the changes are still overwhelming us.
Just for instance, take the report that “Broadcasters’ woes could spell trouble for free TV Assailed by cable and the Web, broadcast TV looks to build a new business model.”
Over-the-air/free TV has a problem. Simply stated, they only have one major revenue stream – the one from selling advertising. Their competition whether cable or satellite has two revenue streams. One from the advertising and one from the payment for delivery. In other words, when you watch TV (unless you’re a nutjob like me) you pay twice for most things and sometimes three times. You pay to get cable or satellite (1), then you pay with your attention to ads (2), and in a few cases you get stuck a third time (3) by having commercial material shoveled into your face on a ‘premium channel’.
If someone were really serious about promoting America as the ‘land of opportunity’ they might ensure that Americans could get access to some basic media without having to go figure out how FTA satellite system work and watching free offerings (not even commercials) from outfits like Russia Today and Al Jazeera, Iraqi TV and even English-speaking KSA Channel 2 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Don’t mean to haarp, but until America consumers stop being frigging sheep and starting putting value on their time (and head space) the heaping of 18-minutes an hour of radio commercials and 12-15 minutes per hour of television just won’t be enough.
Some has to pay for all those roll-ups in radio (and television) and guess who’s gonna pay that bill? [see your mirror for details].
More Money in Trees?
Having had some logging done on our place here in the East Texas outback three (or was it four) years ago, I found the headline that “Plan to turn farms into forest worries Obama official” downright amusing. We did a selective logging of 24 acres and it netted us $14,000 and change in 2005, or so. That was before housing collapsed and paper consumption was higher.. and that penciled to $583 per acre after 16-years of growth and some was holdover first growth. So is there more money in trees? Please.
The real economics are you put in trees, do a thinning cut at 7-10 years and then a real harvest at 17-20 years and you’re lucky to break-even on trees – which is why landowners like picking up dough from hunting leases and so forth. Or, they’ll run another crop (goats in our case) and let them be the groundskeepers.
Can carbon-crazies…sorry, carbon credits… change that? Well, if they was to buy carbon credits that approximate real opportunity costs, give ‘em my number. But so far the only people I see getting rich are the (new word here:) carboneers.
Picture This
With the headline that “Calls for full-body screening devices grows after terror attempt” I wonder how long before Playboy or maybe Penthouse runs the “Best of Chicago Scanners” spread? And who could call that porn? I mean it’s protecting the national interest…yessiree…
To Their Credit
Say, here’s a shocker: “Al Qaeda takes credit for (airline bomber) plot“. Like there was a one in a quintillion chance they’d say “Us? We didn’t do it!” Right.
Iran Clock Running
Latest from Iranian media is that “Iran mulls over producing research reactor fuel...” Like they might not? Would everyone in government globally stop trying to BS the peeps? This is so frigging ridiculous….
Greasy Terms
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to new tariffs on energy movement quieting down tensions there; at least for a while.
Calculus Problem
The story that “Employers see uptick in hiring in 2010” sounds hopeful because 20% of employers are planning to add f/t workers in 2010. Problem: Same data showed 14% were planning to add in 2009 and look what that netted us: a 10% + unemployment rate. So you figure out the math, my head hurts just sizing up the problem.
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How about a class of economic math called “differential hosing”?
GPWhere
I was bemoaning a couple of weeks ago putting the wrong city in Elaine’s car’s GPS and being driven 25-miles out of the way before figuring out that “Oposie!”. I’m not alone. You see where a “Couple stranded 3 days after GPS leads them astray“? We are not alone…That’s why in a recent bout of flying I renounced GPS in favor of VOR navigation. And dual ADF‘s would be even better… Look! Up in the sky! It’s…it’s…it’s a Flying Luddite!
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This morning while driving back from the airport I found myself snickering that E’s nav system features POI. No, not the beat-up fish goo…points of interest, but I found it amusing to use the other definition of POI. Acronym disease is up 26-times since 1949 as I ,calculated in Peoplenomics last weekend….