In Monday’s column I showed you the five-minute chart Robin Landry had worked up and it showed the option of a rally up to the 10,350/10,300 area before the market could turn down again. Sure enough, at its peak on Monday popped up to 10,256.87 – at which point I was tempted to yell “Hold It!” and snap a few pictures myself for my some day book “How Modern Depressions are Dragged Out Indefinitely: In order not to feel so much pain today and give the same politicians who created this mess a chance of buying their way back into office for another term in the fall 2010 elections helped by a corpgov-friendly supreme court decision which provides for corporate auctioning of votes via unlimited dispersal of money and favors from other than natural humans who would otherwise have a traceable name attached to them, Volume 2.“ I guess that explains why there isn’t a line of publishers bidding for rights…
The real adventure won’t start until we take out the Friday lows and maybe another little run up this week before we start down again is how I’m looking at it, but this is not financial advice since I have other vices that are a lot more fun — trust me. Still, the area below 10,160 could get ugly and clear the way for a test of 9,500 on the Dow.
Not to say the bulls don’t have a case: If you look at the Yahoo five-day chart here, you’ll see that there was quite a gap left at the Wednesday open last week and since markets have a way of ‘filling gaps’ a run up to fill 10,625 might be ahead.
All of which explains why I don’t do day-trading. It’s easy to see what the Big Picture is in markets, but trying to trade every zig and zag is closer to Russian Roulette and seems to have a similar payoff many times. On the other hand, the advent of long term options (goon out a year or two) makes it possible for people figure out the long range direction of things and place their bets and forget about the day-to-day machinations. I don’t care how the market gets there so longs as Brinks has a ktruck coming right along behind it. Suits me fine.
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Gold being down early hints that a couple of economic numbers coming out this morning might not be so rosy. The Case-Schiller/S&P Housing number and consumer confidence could push things down.
Fundamentals do come into play at some point and I keep pointing to the most recent (Jan 
Federal Reserve G-19 Consumer Debt report which shows the annual rate of change for total consumer debt, revolving/credit card debt and nonrevolving (long term longs like school loans) as collapsing:
Yes, that second number down on the right reads -18.5% percent annualized which so far most seem to be overlooking. But the way I figure it, this ought to have pushed financial stocks and credit card stocks out of a plane with no parachute so guess what I bought long term ‘put options’ on? Either the next Fed G.19 turns around, or at some point the geniuses down on the street will see the error of their ways (one of which is not reading my column, but there’s an old farmerly saying about horses and water that comes to mind). Not investment advise, though!
Not that it’s hard to figure when you look at the size of government debt: Ov er $12-trillion dollars now and with the slow-down in the economy, wouldn’t surprise me at all if the debt were to exceed US Gross Domestic Product this year. It will for sure if you take all the ‘off budget’ spending into account which no one seems to want to do. That’s like having a couple of additional car payments and not mentioning them when you take out a loan.
Simple enough reason for that Beltway disease denial though: That’d reveal more of the sheer ugliness of Depression 2.0 and who can afford to do that with congressional and senate elections coming this fall?
There’s a propensity on Wall Street to talk about ‘the strength of a global economic recovery”. A person would have to be a damn fool not to see such talk as shills pimping a crooked craps game; the Easter Bunny is more real.
Like I said: If the rally lasts only through yesterday, or drags out until sometime in early spring doesn’t matter. I figure Brinks will be along with my money later in the year one way or t’other. Gravity can only be defied just so long, although hot air still rises – especially in winter when it’s cold out. Speaking of which…
Are We Next?
THE Biggest financial story of the day could be the report that “Standard and Poor’s warns my downgrade Japan” debt instruments. A reader who is pretty savvy asked “George, are we next?”
You aren’t going to like the answer and Pappy always said “If you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all…” So…
(insert huge silence here)
Wintery Blast
A winter storm watch remains in effect from late Wenersday night through late Thursday night for all of the Texas and Oklaho9ma panhandles says the Weather Service. Linguistics have us looking for two big blasts of winter ahead, but not sure if this one will be big enough to merit attention, other than putting the covers on water faucets and restocking our plumbing spares before the rest of the herd which does such things after the emergencies.
Global Warming
Love the headline out of CBS’ web site on the cost of Coping-haven: “Congress went to Denmark, You Got the Bill”. Over a million bucks and who knows how much extra jet exhaust contributed to the…oh? A little too harsh a reminder of how our rulers want us to do without and they’re “special”?
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When I do consulting, do I jump on a plane? Hell no. An email, phone call or a video conference costs nothing but recycled electrons. Then again, maybe congress has some kind of deal with the EU to support Danish hotels and car rental outfits, but it doesn’t make sense to me.
Unless they can’t read, maybe…
Aliens Among Us!
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Today’s fashions have me wondering “It that really a human?” anyway.
It’s Elementary
So president Obama goes to an elementary school and uses a teleprompter?
Fans
Meantime, the WH PR department’s getting some questions, we’re sure, after an Obama fan (cough, cough, ahem…) wrote to newspapers all over the country using the same name (Ellie Light). 68 publications in 31 states, in fact says the Patterico’s Pontifications website which has been counting.
OIL in Haiti?
While an Italian disaster expert is slamming the US and Hugo Chavez made his claims about an m’earthquake weapon‘ to Fox News sources, here’s a hot one to ponder: A ‘heads up’ UrbanSurvival reader sent along a 2008 article out of a French-language publication that translates in part “…Scientists Daniel and Ginette Mathurin indicate that under Haitian soil is rich in oil and fuel fossible which were collected by Haitian and foreign experts. “We have identified 20 sites Oil, launches Daniel Mathurin stating that 5 of them are considered very important by practitioners and policies. “
Ticket to Ride
NY Post reports that the “Feds OK Live nation/Ticketmaster (merger) with strings“. Strings as in caveats, not Boston Pops.
Those Late French
Here comes another political blunder as “Frances MPs’ report backs Muslim face veil ban.“ Maybe should have though this through before the Muslim population of France grew to over 3.5-million don’tcha think?
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Germany has 4-million Muslims now, by the way.
Blame Game
Meantime, elsewhere on the road to peace and harmony, we see Muslims and Christians throwing blame at one another in Nigeria’s recent religious fighting which has claimed at least 326 souls on both sides.
ME and is MEss
Remember the reports that young Islamic radicals were converging on Pakistan? Well, look here:” Word out today that the Afghanistan intelligence services say the January 18 attack in Kabul was ‘linked to Pakistan’. Not much surprising to that, is there.
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Today’s Podcast
Will be here after about 8:30 AM Central time:
www.independencejournal.com/mp3/20100126.mp3
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I forgot to post the blog-style update yesterday…that will be fixed this morning…if I remember. More coffee before we move on?