So, you’re wondering, when does the “improved productivity’ we keep hearing about turn into an increase in the balance of trade? new figures out from the Census Bureau today may hold some hints:
“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total January exports of $142.7 billion and imports of $180.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $37.3 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December, revised. January exports were $0.5 billion less than December exports of $143.2 billion. January imports were $3.1 billion less than December imports of $183.1 billion.
In January, the goods deficit decreased $2.5 billion from December to $49.4 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $12.1 billion. Exports of goods decreased $0.7 billion to $98.4 billion, and imports of goods decreased $3.2 billion to $147.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $44.3 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $32.2 billion.
In January, the goods and services deficit increased $0.4 billion from January 2009. Exports were up $18.7 billion, or 15.1 percent, and imports were up $19.1 billion, or 11.9 percent.
Goods (Census basis)
The December to January decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods ($1.0 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.5 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Increases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.5 billion) and consumer goods ($0.2 billion).
Other goods were virtually unchanged.
The December to January decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.5 billion); capital goods ($1.1 billion); and consumer goods ($0.9 billion). An increase occurred in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Other goods and industrial supplies and materials were virtually unchanged.
The January 2009 to January 2010 increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($7.0 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($3.4 billion); consumer goods ($2.1 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.7 billion); capital goods ($1.6 billion); and other goods ($0.4 billion)
It all boils down to a simple picture:
The Balance of Trade deficit got smaller, but we’re still spending more overseas than we ship out to the tune of $37.3 billion in January and that means we’re still living beyond out income as a country. So, what else is new?
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Inflation in China hit a 16-month high and that has some people worried…but an annual inflation rate of 2.7% t’ain’t no biggie. Why the annual rate of debasing the US currency has averaged…oh…2,3% per year since 1913, so what’s the big deal? Inflation’s one of those games every talks about being bad but then everyone turns around and does it. It is what it is, know what I’m sayin’?
Unemployment Drops a Tad
Latest from Labor:
“In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 462,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 468,000. The 4-week moving average was 475,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 470,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 27, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
Futures are pointing down a bit for the open.
Foreclosure Rate Slowing – A Bit
I don’t usually post whole sections of press releases, but the one from RealtyTrac on foreclosure data is a must read:
“RealtyTrac® (realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its February 2010 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 308,524 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 2 percent from the previous month but still 6 percent above the level reported in February 2009. The report also shows one in every 418 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in February.
“The 6 percent year-over-year increase we saw in February was the smallest annual increase we’ve seen since January 2006, when we began calculating year-over-year increases, but it still marked the 50th consecutive month of year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “This leveling of the foreclosure trend is not necessarily evidence that fewer homeowners are in distress and at risk for foreclosure, but rather that foreclosure prevention programs, legislation and other processing delays are in effect capping monthly foreclosure activity — albeit at a historically high level that will likely continue for an extended period.
“In addition, severe winter weather appears to have temporarily slowed the processing of foreclosure records in some Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states.”
Foreclosure activity by type Default notices (Notices of Default and Lis Pendens) were reported on a total of 106,208 U.S. properties during the month, an increase of 3 percent from the previous month but down 3 percent from February 2009. Default notices were down 25 percent from their peak of more than 142,000 in April 2009 but were still more than three times the number they were four years ago in February 2006.
Foreclosure auctions (Notices of Trustee’s Sale and Notices of Sheriff’s Sales) were scheduled for the first time on a total of 123,633 U.S. properties, a decrease of 1 percent from the previous month but still 16 percent higher than the level reported in February 2009. Scheduled auctions were down 14 percent from their peak of more than 144,000 in August 2009 but were also about three times higher than the number reported in February 2006.
Bank repossessions (REOs) were reported on a total of 78,683 U.S. properties during the month, a 10 percent decrease from the previous month but an increase of 6 percent from February 2009. Bank repossessions were down nearly 15 percent from their peak of more than 92,000 in December 2009 but were at nearly twice the level reported in February 2006.
Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates Nevada foreclosure activity decreased nearly 7 percent from the previous month and was down 30 percent from February 2009, but the state’s foreclosure rate continued to rank highest in the nation for the 38th month in a row. One in every 102 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing during the month — more than four times the national average.
Arizona and Florida documented nearly identical foreclosure rates, with one in every 163 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in both states. Despite a nearly 21 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month, Arizona’s rate was statistically slightly higher than Florida’s rate and ranked second highest among the states.
California’s foreclosure rate ranked fourth highest among the states, with one in every 195 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, and Michigan’s foreclosure rate ranked fifth highest among the states, with one in every 226 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.
Other states with foreclosure rates among the nation’s 10 highest were Utah (one in every 275 housing units), Idaho (one in 296), Illinois (one in 305), Georgia (one in 331) and Maryland (one in 407).
Six states account for more than 60 percent of national total The six states with the most foreclosure activity accounted for 61 percent of the national total in February. California led the way, with 68,562 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the month — down nearly 5 percent from the previous month and down 15 percent from February 2009.
Foreclosure activity in Florida increased nearly 15 percent from the previous month and was up more than 16 percent from February 2009. The state continued to post the nation’s second highest total, with 54,032 properties received a foreclosure filing during the month.
Increasing foreclosure activity boosted Michigan’s total to third highest among the states. A total of 20,028 Michigan properties received a foreclosure filing during the month — up nearly 14 percent from the previous month and up 59 percent from February 2009.
With 17,312 properties receiving a foreclosure filing, Illinois posted the fourth highest total, followed by Arizona, with 16,718 properties receiving a foreclosure filing, and Texas, with 12,638 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in February.
Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Georgia (12,177), Ohio (11,286), Nevada (11,035), and Maryland (5,732).
Divergent trends in metro areas with top 10 foreclosure rates Metro areas in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Florida, California and Arizona continued to dominate the top 10 highest foreclosure rates among metropolitan areas with a population of 200,000 or more, but activity trends in these areas varied considerably.
The Las Vegas metro area documented the highest metro foreclosure rate, with one in every 90 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, despite a 9 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month.
Six of the other metro areas in the top 10 — all in California or Arizona — also reported decreasing foreclosure activity from the previous month. The biggest monthly decrease among the top 10 was in the Phoenix metro area, where foreclosure activity dropped nearly 18 percent.
In contrast, the two Florida metro areas in the top 10 both posted substantial monthly increases in foreclosure activity. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area saw a 31 percent increase in foreclosure activity from the previous month, giving it the second highest metro foreclosure rate — one in every 92 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing. An increase of nearly 66 percent in foreclosure activity from the previous month helped boost the foreclosure rate in Port St. Lucie to sixth highest.
All of which is critically important stuff to watch if you’re planning to invest in a home (or a rental or two) over the next few years. Seems early yet to me, but I’m a reclusive miser – what can I say? Which gets me to…
‘Closing” in on Depression 2
Every once in a while folks have a “Duh!” moment – and this must be my day for it. Came when I was looking at the usual swarm of headlines that was floating on the screens and scanning two gazillion emails. Was there a common thread in the fabric of the news that hadn’t been ‘zoomed in on’?
The latest word to hit my news filters is “closing”. If there’s some common element to a Second Depression’s economic stories, it might be ‘closing’ down of all kinds of things. For instance:
- “Kansas City board OKs plan to close nearly half of schools”
- “Big ax looming at FDNY: Threat of 1,000 layoffs, closing of 62 fire companies”
- “USPS should engage public more when closing office, PRC says“
- “SCSD Superintendent proposes cutting jobs and closing a school”
Taken individually, may not seem like any one of these is a particularly big deal (although obviously it is to the people involved). Looking at the Google Trend Labs data, some of the use of ‘closing’ as it relates to Olympics may be declining, but the word itself is still going strong in searches.
Just something to keep an eye (and ear, I suppose) on, since as we edge closer to Depression going mainstream in everyday speech (mid summerish) we ought to see the work ‘closing’ figuring prominently in daily discourse.
Cost of Illegals
Report out of the LA area’s Daily Breeze reveals that 25% of welfare payments in LA County go to illegals.
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2½ million people in Florida are on food stamps.
Fee Justice
Let me ask you something: If you found out that a state government was deliberately handing out speeding tickets to try and close a budget gap, how would you feel about it? Pissed? Well then you don’t what to read about recent goings on in Virginia. Oh – paid for in part by the feds. With friends like this….
Shouldn’t hurt tourism too much – that is, if the state adopts my new ad campaign which would make a dandy new license plate slogan, too…you like? I make for you?
Street Creds
A number of people have written in to ask if the linguistically forecast major fall-off in religions might have something to do with the return (about now) of headlines like “Devil has infiltrated Vatican, says chief exorcist”?
Can’t say since any number of things might drive large numbers of people from organized religions. But, a cross-section (no pun intended!) of religious leaders behaving badly and 10,000-year (or longer) floods like the rains in Georgia last year certainly do give rise to a few questions.
When I see stories about either the current administration’s ‘faith-based initiative’ (as in this Newsweek piece) or the ongoing Texas textbook battle which argues over what should (and should not be) in social studies textbooks, I watch in semi-disbelief as events unfold…
“Terror Trend”?
The bust of Jihad Jane this week sure seems to bolster the case for those who would extend more federal controls over what happens on the Internet. Take for example this little quote out of the USA Today coverage of the story:
Demonizing the ‘net, sounds like is where this leads – and in turn that lays the groundwork for eventual licensure of net use or maybe content kontrol. Bet me?
There Must Be a Reason
…that the US Department of Education is buying 27 shotguns. Executive protection more’n likely, not unruly students..