As promised, hot off the press release is the month Case/S&P Housing report, which to my way of thinking is the best overview of how things are going in the beleaguered housing industry we’ve got…
Here’s the summary:
New York, March 29, 2011 – Data through January 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show further deceleration in the annual growth rates in 13 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to the December 2010 report. The 10-City Composite was down 2.0% and the 20-City Composite fell 3.1% from their January 2010 levels. San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1%, while Washington DC posted a healthier +3.6% annual growth rate. The same 11 cities that had posted recent index level lows in December 2010, posted new lows in January.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. In January 2011, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -2.0% and -3.1%, respectively. On a monthly basis, the 10-City Composite was down 0.9% and the 20-City Composite fell 1.0% in January versus December 2010. Only San Diego and Washington D.C. posted positive annual growth rates in January 2011. These are the only two cities whose annual rates remained positive throughout 2010. Every other MSA has either moved back into or has always been in negative territory during the recent housing crisis. On a monthly basis, Washington DC was the only market where home prices rose in January, but up only 0.1%. The remaining 19 MSAs and both Composites fell during the month, with 12 of the markets and the 20-City Composite down by at least 1.0% versus December 2010.
“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now.
“These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing. A few months ago we defined a double-dip for home prices as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The 10-City Composite is still 2.8% above and the 20-City is 1.1% above their respective April 2009 lows, but both series have moved closer to a confirmed double-dip for six consecutive months. At this point we are not too far off, and that is what many analysts are seeing with sales, starts and inventory data too.
Gee, seems that Mr. Ure’s outlook for a continuation of the housing decline (and lack of jobs recovery) is moving along just as predicted. Oh, and did I mention this does serve to underscore Jas Jain’s great (nearly unshakeable faith) in deflation? We’ll see how the metals and markets react today and tomorrow – should be instructive…
“It could be argued…”
As depressing as some of the stories in the headlines might be this morning, let’s get one thing cl;ear at the outset: News is only bad if you have the wrong context.
We can already see how the MainStreamMedia is starting to turn on itself (an interesting gyration to watch) with headlines asking things like “Is Media Matters break the law in its ‘war’ on Fox News?” while another site claims that “Mexico’s largest media corporation behind plan to censor drug war coverage.”
Of course technology change is certainly a driver – and when I noticed the report “Phuket media coverage takes a leap forward with iApps” I thought to myself, “Gee, how could I become part of the Phuket media?”
I especially think Phuket when I review the media circus overs the coming month’s-long war in Libya. I seem, to have a little different perspective on things that Fearless Leader who was nattering on about how we have a responsibility as a great world leader (yada, yada) to intervene in Libya which anyone in their right might would notice has everything to do with oil and little to do with anything else.
The Pentagon has put a price tag on the first week of the war – $600 million, but don’t be disappointed, we’ve got another open-ended war and although it was perhaps buried in too muchy economic fact to suit some in yesterday’s column, here we are seeing if corpgov and the Fed can jointly print and spend enough to gain the economic stimulus of war which is why WW II was so critical to ending the first Great Depression. If we can just collapse the Debtberg and fight enough wars on whatever pretext.
What most people aren’t asking – and it’s the hardest question of all because it tends to sift the wheat from the bullshit (to put it directly) is “How come it’s OK for the republicorps to go off starting unending wars and the democorps can’t?”
Say, did I mention that city in Thailand?
When I checked earlier this morning, the national radiation map was not up in the 100-range which they’ve pegged as their ‘alert level’.
However, the International Atomic Energy Agency briefing for Monday night notes that “Japan confirms plutonium in soil sample at Fukushima Daiichi” and then goes into more detail:
“Traces of plutonium are not uncommon in soil because they were deposited worldwide during the atmospheric nuclear testing era. However, the isotopic composition of the plutonium found at Fukushima Daiichi suggests the material came from the reactor site, according to TEPCO officials. Still, the quantity of plutonium found does not exceed background levels tracked by Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology over the past 30 years.
Part of the problem with radiation is most Americans are extremely ignorant of what it is – and what it is not. What I’d suggest is that somewhere on your bookshelf should be a copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills: Updated and Expanded 1987 Edition which will set you back about $20-bucks at Amazon.
We’ve been flooded with questions like “How much dirt should we have over us?” but instead of me trying to answer an overflowing email inbox, please read the book and realize that there are just some parts of modern technology, which – while they may appear as magic – are noting more than application of some very solid rules of chemistry and physics.
If you haven’t read the rules, and I don’t care if it’s how machine code works on the 8088 chip, or how radio wave propagate differently depending on frequency, there generally is not magic and once you ‘get it’ with the rules, the world really is a somewhat orderly place.
Orderly Nukes, Too
Of course, having a well-informed public may not work out for the PTB, and it’s with this thought in mind that we pass on the story that “Germany, Austria, Switzerland pull Simpsons episodes that Make Fun of Nuclear Meltdowns.”
What was it my PTB minion source told me? Ah yes…”…the movies are the messages…”
About things like this:
“Thing I wanted to say, you pointed out that even the NYT was beginning to ask what would become of all that water they squirted into the reactors–finally. The water that is in puddles now glowing in the dark.
I have to tell you, and my friends (including a Peoplenomics Subscriber) will attest, that I have been asking what they were going to do with all the radioactive sea water from all the squirting ever since they started spraying the water in there.
So since I had the idea first I gess that means I am a Nuclear Physicist.”
Absolutely! All seriousness aside: Self-warming salmon entrées – and they’ll keep for 25,000 years without refrigeration! Go with us on this…
Tomorrow Under the Big Top
While most of the world gets sucked into debate over Libya (that ship done sailed) the second ring of the circus oughta be worth watching tomorrow as the Subcommittee on TARP and Financial Services holds a hearing on the notion of “too big to fail.”
Adding Insult to Injury
Eh, wot? Like the anti-union diatribes of the right aren’t bad enough for teachers, here comes Fearless Leader saying too much testing makes education boring…
I thought the word was accountable…
2012: No Worries
I can say that with confidence now, know why? Because the Federal Reserve has schedule a rate meeting for January 29-30 of 2013 now…lol.
Working for FREE
Don’t know if you saw it, but a watchful reader spied the story on the Fortune/CNN website this week “Unpaid Jobs: The new normal?”
Having heard my numerous reminders about the undocumented alien invasion via offshore internet workers, this insightful reader puts it this way:
“Read these quotes from one business owner -”People who work for free are far hungrier than anybody who has a salary, so they’re going to outperform, they’re going to try to please, they’re going to be creative,” and “From a cost savings perspective, to get something off the ground, it’s huge. Especially if you’re a small business” and finally “Ten years from now, this is going to be the norm…” (Michigan and Wisconsin are leading the way – G)
I am so proud of our business community stepping up to the plate in this time of economic crisis to provide these fabulous opportunities to U.S. citizens.”
Peachy plan. Let’s call it the “Freebulous job creation plan!” Makes me proud too…Why, I’d even offer a toast to the boardroom geniuses behind this one, except that’d involve a trip to the local Chevron for something to properly toast with….
(For cold Bud? Uh…er…sure….whatever…) How soon the PTB forget their Dylan…
This ought to be great fun to watch. You see, in order for the New World Order types to pull this off, they have to figure out what to do with all those industries that are car-related. Repair shops, battery makers, tires and reapirs, collision repair…hell, we could list them for days.
Like so much else out of crack-addled \supergovernment types, there’s no explanation of where people are going to be employed in this brave newer world vision. We do know that millions of additional people will become necessarily unemployed, however.
Which means – if I wrap my head around this stuff correctly – is that people are going to lose a substantial bit of their freedom to travel about, and that more than ever, there will be a ratcheting up of government intrusion into people’s lives.
What’s laughable is that leadership of the EU doesn’t seem bright enough to read their own financial statements (they’re broke) while at the same time coming up with these Utopian dreamscapes which I can only attribute to bad meds.
If you’re wondering why common folk are demonstrating in the streets of places like London and Greece here lately, it’s pretty simple that thinking people all over the world are figuring out that just wrapping up a vision of the future in this flag or that, and back it with a hype program like global warming is not what’s going on, especially when the numbers don’t add up. The Association of British Drivers has at least figured that part out.
On the other hand, I suppose it doesn’t matter: I’ll be 101 by then. What city was that in Thailand, again?
(more after this)