(Detroit, MI) I shouldn’t read my own columns: Turned me into some who was reminiscent of the old day trading days. Into FAZ at 49.74 in the pre-market Thursday and out at 51, then flipped to the long side with FAS $22.54, and out at $23.01 about 20-minutes before the close. OK, so I left 24¢ on the table on the last trade, but I wasn’t going to play “stare into monitors” all day after driving up from Dayton to Detroit. A 4½% one day gain in portfolio value (not counting Uncle’s piece) is a respectable enough day while on the road. But with the futures surging to the upside, I feel like a cowardly idiot for leaving the rally early. No change there, eh?
Next issue is which way the market seems to resolve from here with the possibilities almost equally weighted up and down as things roll out this morning. Asia was up overnight and Europe was also up what might translate into a ‘hundred-pointer” to the upside. Yeah, I’m a cowardly idiot, but if new highs are coming, we’ll get a pullback.
But what happens today is data dependent and I’m not going to trade anything (oh, yeah, sure…) until I’ve had breakfast and then maybe we might see a pullback. No hurry to play any more until something a bit longer-term than a playable pop wanders by.
Which it might, but that gets us to this morning’s data…Durables first..
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $3.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $195.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 2.7 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $2.7 billion or 5.8 percent to $49.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts which increased $2.7 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $194.6 billion. This followed a 1.4 percent April decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 2.0 percent to $28.3 billion.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $7.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $860.2 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent April increase. Machinery, up sixteen consecutive months, had the largest increase, $3.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $108.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS b.
And then there’s the latest from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2011, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.8 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Hundred points up in the first hour? How about 15-minutes, then?.
Debt Talks In the Wings
President Obama and house speaker John Boehner will apparently work out the US path toward a balanced budget.
Wonder if they will ‘take it outside’ at the golf course?
Economic issues continue in Greece where the country has agreed on new austerity measures. But reader some of the dispatches from in country, like this Reuters report, we can help wondering if the middle class in Greece isn’t feeling like they’ve been sold down the road.
Why imagine that! Who would have thought that multinational bankster cabal would be capable of such a thing – in Europe, or here?
All of which has gold dropping and the US Dollar rising again, at least in the pre-opening hours, which usually means the US market will fall, and yes, that’s why I dumped the long position yesterday going into the close. Momma didn’t raise no fool, or at least, a pretty damn cautious one.
If you know someone who works at the Fed, could you please slip a note to Fed boss Ben Bernanke for us? No secret what’s in the note: Just a few suggestions which seem necessary based on the AP story that our “Economic trouble puzzles Fed chief, too.”
Dear Mr. Bernanke:
A few talking points to cure your reported “puzzledness”…
The whole world is in the midst of coping with a massively disruptive technology change called “networked computing”.
This tech change, just like autos did in the last Depression, is causing economic dislocations at a massive scale.
The most obvious dislocations are in finance and in jobjacking to least-cost labor centers offshore. (Doh…) which produces goods which we buy borrowing money and inflating money in the process…which in turn causes the phenomena I call “Consumer-Pullthrough Ponzi…”
Consequently, companies of room temp IQ and above, have been – and still are – offshoring their books, or at least cost-loading their north American ledgers while paying handsome options and other goodies to execs offshore, which said execs then piss and moan about when comes time to bring in cash from their local nominee accounts in the Caymans, Belize, Turks and Caicos, and wherever.
Sorry to report, but the only way to fix the world is to put on a pair of Purchasing Power Parity Glasses, which we sell in our gift shop really, really cheap. They replace the rose-colored ones and are almost 3-D-like, in that suddenly a whole lot more of what’s going on will make sense.
The Tariffs of the last depression were, in my estimate, only convenience whipping posts for larger socioeconomic trend changes. We ought to retest, I think. What’s to lose? We could fund the deficit and pay extended UI claims with the revenue and slow India from overtaking us in 2050…
People’s emotions, as any trader knows, heavily influences markets. People are almost God-like in their industry and activities when there’s a Great Common Goal. Someone needs to articulate a viable global, or at least national dream which people can get behind.
But is there such a thing? Nope. “Getting screwed less than someone else” is not a goal. BOHICA is not a marketing slogan.
Those ‘international banks and funds’ are only papering over the problems of the world by putting selfish liens on everything from the waterworks in South America to whatever collateralizes the Greece deal (which doesn’t get talked about, except there a high tax load is promised, for sure.)
With global interest rates near zero, people awakening to the bankster-class rip are getting pissed and we’re seeing GlobalRev as people worldwide use the people-to-people power to say “Enough of this bullshit, already…” It’s not just the Middle East/North Africa (MENA): It’s out here in middle America in “fly over” land.
Really: That’s what disruptive technologies do and it’s what networked computing is doing in front of our largely unaware selves. Tech revolution ended demand for draft horses in the first Depression, and don’t look now, but its ending the need for a ‘ruling class’ in this one. See the 1933 classic by Ely “Hard Times, the Way In, the Way Out” and get to work kindling doable, achievable goals and dreams and stop selling “One More Global Refi,” please.
Want to see the next global bank? Look to the peer to peer banking…no “authorities” needed.
Hey, look, if we can do it to the music industry, why not peer-to-peer away the banking industry? That’s tech change for you.
Refinance global debt at zero percent and stop screwing the whole world into involuntary debt-servitude because as long as there’s an internet, there’s a workaround. Which is why our rickety time machine runs out of data in mid 2013…is that the plan? Close the net down as the ultimate barrier to entry?
Please let us know, since headlines about being “puzzled” are not very reassuring to those of us who are still playing nicely.
Thank you, respectfully (or, nearly so)… yada, yada, yada…End note to Ben. Oh, I can be reached at the Detroit Westin. Lunch Sunday? Might get the local business reporter guy interested, too…
Speaking of Internet Controls
I keep telling yah…here they come: This just in under the subject line “Hackers in Brazil”…
“George, good day.
We are monitoring closely the cyber “attacks”(?) in Brazil; during the entire week the main governmental websites were hacked! Some fraudulent activities were also published for the public knowledge.
It’s rather strange to have this recent attacks in this time frame (CIA being attacked for 9 days).
Guess internet permits are just at the corner.
bom final de semana…”
Yeah…er…you have a good weekend, too… the $1 Bank Job to get medical and slide to retirement age is something we’ve hinted at before: One way to retire with three hots and a cot, plus medical coverage and an exercise program plus maybe a degree with no student loans, know what I’m sayin’?
Future of Oil Prices
The International Energy Agency is releasing strategic reserves. Don’t ask me why – since oil is already down from highs around $115. PR stunt or a way to punish traders who’ve bid up oil? No one is sure, but here’s an interesting notion: What was the cost of the oil which went into the Reserve and what’s the price coming out? Be an interesting spread to look into…
Call Me Confused Dept.
OK, so when the mayor of Harrisburg PA starts talking about 3-days of fasting and prayer to help the city through its financial problems, isn’t that overlooking the line between state and church separation just a wee bit much?
I appreciate her honor’s thought, its just that God doesn’t solve money issues…that’s done by banker and finance types, which may think they are deities, oh, you know…
Flood waters still rising in North Dakota. with more rain up that way, we’re considering the name change from Missouri River to Misery River…
(more after this…)