Have to admit it, I’m only semi-convinced the web bot project’s window for the world to begin changing happened in the March 2-9 timeframe, although there are a lot of big deals that have gotten rolling for sure. Among some of the leaders:
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Plans were laid for the USS Enterprise to head around the world on a farewell cruise before being scrapped. Want to bet it shows up in the Persian Gulf?
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The occurrence of a “credit event” in Greece became read and the ISDA International Swaps and Derivatives Association) has set an auction in a couple of weeks which could lead to some asset moving which in turn could rile markets.
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The KONY2012 video got legs – and as we pointed out earlier, like the guy says at the 1:38 mark (and people miss it) “…this is an experiment…” which may (as some readers speculation) is designed to justify US troops being sent in my AFRICOM more to counter the growing Chinese influence in the area than to find Kony who has “gone mobile” with the LRA..,
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An impeachment move against president Obama has been started for failing to see concurrence of Congress in marching off to wars in Libya and such…
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And just for bad measure, there’s the US soldier going on a killing rampage which is about to blow things up badly in Afghanistan.
Sure, unseasonable tornados and destruction, too, then. But was it just another week in a tension-packed world and might the forecast has been early? Possibly, quite so. But I’m willing to be proven wrong and frequently it works out that way.
How Does This Add Up?
There are a number of articles out (like this one in the LA Times) about how the US energy imports are going down as additional US production comes on line – which would normally be worth celebrating.
But against this, I keep replaying the Friday balance of trade figures:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total January exports of $180.8 billion and imports of $233.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $52.6 billion, up from $50.4 billion in December, revised. January exports were $2.6 billion more than December exports of $178.2 billion. January imports were $4.7 billion more than December imports of $228.7 billion.
In January, the goods deficit increased $2.4 billion from December to $67.5 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.3 billion from December to $14.9 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.9 billion to $128.6 billion, and imports of goods increased $4.3 billion to $196.1 billion. Exports of services increased $0.7 billion to $52.2 billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $37.3 billion.
So does this mean that even with the improved balance of trade, we’re still screwed? Hmmm…
The scariest possibility? That Iran will feel cornered – especially with the Big E coming thataway – and does something pre-emptive before it gets there…which would have us watching the V…..and that could set a 3-6 day timer to flah-bang times.
The Weak Ahead
Futures are down about 30- at the open presently in the pre-market. Treasury Budget is due this afternoon…and tomorrow there’s retai sales figures and a Fed rate decision (do nothing and pray) tomorrow.
We’ll be saving the mystery of the week until Thursday when a flat Consumer Price Index is expected, which leaves the mystery of “How come that’s not what my checkbook is showing?” for pondering next weekend. Until Saturday, when St. Patty’s day brings with it green beer and corned beef…
As weeks go, as long as the lid stays on the Middle East, doesn’t seem like too much has game-changing, but I’m an ignorant pig (so say my friends) and maybe I just don’t see things clearly. But we already knew that.
Gold/Silver Ratio
Several readers have directed me to an article in the ETF Daily News which is under the headline ” Absurd Gold/Silver radio; Why $500/oz Silver is Now a Certainty in the Future.”
One reader suggested a get as much silver as I could.
Maybe I have just become to jaundiced, but there is another way for the numbers to come out in the end: Silver this morning was in the $34 range, so using the much touted 20:1 ratio, there is another thing the formula could be telling us:
$680 gold.
No, I’m not predicting that, but deflation isn’t completely gone yet. There has been a 10.2% increase in M2 money supply floated in the past year and yet prices are barely moving up in the CPI and housing still sucks.
Worse – and not made a big deal over by the inflation-fear stokers – the use of credit cards and other revolving credit is dropping by a 4.4% annualized rate in the latest consumer debt report report while people are going back to school in droves.
So I keep wondering (sorry to not be jumping on the bandwagon) where’s all this inflation going to come from if a 19.3% print rate increase in M1 money ain’t cutting it? And what if, due to a credit event in Greece, the value of cash goes up, not down?
We bought into gold at $275-$300 and silver just under $7. but to us, there is no “lifetime investment” and everything has its season. Didn’t you “get that” from the real estate implosion?
Until gold and silver move above a certain level (which I will chart out for Peoplenomics readers Wednesday) I wouldn’t get too excited on “loading up” with the expectation of getting rich. In today’s world, just hanging onto purchasing power is a lofty enough goal…
Cities Brinking Out
Lemme see: Harrisburg, PA is on the (financial) ropes. So is Stockton, California, but time will tell on both. Alabama got a head start on the rush last week down in Jefferson County.
Just Classic
America has not come to its senses over the weekend. You saw, I presume where the city fathers (or is that mothers) of Acton MA won’t let a pet owner put up lost dog posters?
Then a fistfight broke out at the Chicago Symphony this weekend.
Classic America…still nuts after all these years.
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