A reader asks an interesting question:
“hi george,
some people, like me, think it is a little strange that Obama constantly talks about being a one-term guy; after all, he’s only been there, what?, two weeks?
best,(name withheld)
PS and not only that, but shouldn’t a leader be saying things like, “i’ll lead us through this.” and things like that, rather than “we be facing catastrophe…”
A Fan of Marty Armstrong
A reader sends this timing note:
“I don´t know if anybody follows this, but there is something called the “Economic Pi Cycle” which was developed by Martin Armstrong. The predictions based on this model were astonishing.
The last time I “used” it was “2007.15″ (02/27/07). Two weeks before that date, I sold everything … accumulated Gold and fled into German Bunds. Everybody thought I was nuts (I might have been.) My wife thought I was nuts, but since my investment decisions had brought us double digit returns every year she let me do. In the 02.27.2007 … the full day nothing really happened and I went to bed at about 21:30 thinking that I really had gone mad. Next morning I read the newspaper and read that Asian Stock markets had collapsed … Greenspan had just said that the US was going to enter a recession … and the first bank did a first massive write off. You can´t imagine how shocked I was.
The intersting thing about telling this, is that the next day in the model is approaching. The model is very similar to the elliot wave theory, only it is based on a much wider time frame and has a multitude of waves operating simultaneously. The next date is 2009.3 which equates to 04.23.2009. According to the model something is going to collapse .. the collapse will be monumental … it is one of these things where we do not know what .. but when and in which direction … Confidence of the next 3 years is going to be shattered to levels unknown to our generation.
Make what you want of it ….”
I too am a fan of Armstrong’s work. As I read it, he’s such a dangerously accurate guy in his work that he ended up being locked up for seven years on contempt charges and after the government finally got a guilty plea out of him in 2007, gave him 5-years, so he will be out in either 2011 or 2012, not sure how the ‘good behavior’ thing works with the federal corrections system.
How Close to Meltdown? The $550 Billion Run on Banks
A number of readers have sent in emails like this one:
“Hi George,
What do you make of this C-Span video about a $550 billion draw-down triggering the banking crisis?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NMu1mFao3w
Also, I have noticed a “simmering rage” out there among people of all political stripes. Even the guy who delivered my Moo Shu Pork was on a tear. Everyone knows they are being lied to and that things just don’t “feel right.” All they need is something to coalesce all that anger around. Any ideas? (Or should I say, suggestions?)”
OK, fine, but why couldn’t the public have been told all this in September? And why do we have 14-banks that are on Tim Geithner’s ‘too big to fail’ list? If we were having a bank run, why not just admit it? And that is the core of the public’s problem: Officials in government, by not keeping the public ‘in the loop’ are guilty, as I see it, of misfeasance in office.
B-School Dart Game
Interesting…
“George, When I was in business grad school (1988-89), we were told that all recessions began with too much inventory. So, what you are saying today makes a lot of sense. I understood the stimulus to be mostly for construction versus factory output, though I understand that the financial package Geithner is unloading is supposed to loosen funds for factory output and, therefore, fits your scenario. Regardless, I have to agree with your opinion. However, if they gave me some money I would gladly contribute to the economy by buying some groceries and basic items. Where is this idea in all the Washington hoopla?
One of the projects we did in school was to project GDP based on facts and figures we would dig out of various government and other documents (before they were all online). The prof would post all of them on the outside of his office door. Then, next quarter, when GDP figures came out, he would highlight those that were correct–or close. I remember being somewhat close at the time–billions, but what the prof said was that every quarter one or more of his students would forecast closer than the government economists. He was right. Besides the handful of us that were “close,” an international (Chinese) student in my class nailed it within millions.
Ah…reason ya’ll got close was you didn’t have to jigger the numbers to fit current political realities…
FEMA Flood Maps
Might want to keep an eye on those “We’re from the government and we’re here to help” people from FEMA who are redrawing flood plain maps. And example: “FEMA’s flood zone maps cause headaches for Rochester-area residents.” Oh boy…
Wash Them Veggies
Reading up on an outbreak of rat lungworm in Hawaii oughta make you scrub your veggies extra carefully…
What Day is This?
Sarah Palin’s birthday! Finally, right-wing talk gabsters will have some fresh content…
How the World Really Works
Ah…fine email here:
“Hi George,
As a long time reader of Urban and a new subscriber to Peoplenomics, I need to ask a simple question. Why is the financial media so determined to appear bullish? Today, I watched CNBC wrap up the day by saying the the 5% decline in the S & P was “ok” and “what a good thing it is that this wasn’t last year or the markets would really be down big”. Ummmmm, excuse me, but last time I checked, 5% on such a broad index is a big deal. I’m aware of all the biases, there is no need to explain those…but this is even more absurd than the political bias. I watch the Cramers, Fast Money and Kudlow show and take from them what I can. I know even in a bear market there are opportunities and I try to stay informed from a variety of sources. On the latter shows mentioned, they move with the market both bullish and bearish, I can live with that. It’s the full daytime coverage that drives me crazy, all day long on CNBC, everyday is the first day of the Santa Claus rally, the January rally the spring rally, early summer rally…you get my drift. It’s laughable. The Peter Schiff’s of the world or Dr. Doom, get no credit for their correct view’s and are in fact often mocked..still to this day. I guess being 100% right, isn’t enough if it goes against party orders…Anyway, can you give this cynic any plausible answer? And by the way, when I mention the Peter Schiff’s of the world, I hold you in that camp as well. You’ve had this mess pegged for quite some time. Now I know the markets, being a forward indicator, don’t always react to the economic news of the day, if they can find a way to discount it. but in the long run, you have to pay the piper. I’m still waiting for the piper.”
The financial media has a two major interests in being bullish. First, and foremost, they are paid for by what? Advertising! And that advertising is for what? Investment outfits. If they were to be balanced (interviewing too many folks like Dr. Doom Faber, me, Schif, et al, people would likely start living a much more sustainable lifestyle, spending time putting in gardens and saving money in ways that can’t be seized through inflation instead of working themselves into an early grave by focusing on a 401(k) that’s almost certain to be taxed at some point. So that’s reason #1.
Reason number 2: If people were told the whole truth about how economics and big corporations work — you know, things like corporate boards that live by “We out-source because we can get someone to do your job cheaper than you, so don’t whine, we’re international and we’re here to make money and anything that gets in our way is just tough shit…” — the normal humans of the world would not stand for it.
THAT gets to be dangerous stuff because the PowersThatBe at the top of the various heaps (like newspaper magnates, Council on Foreign whatevers and Trilateral this and thats – they don’t want the apple cart upset quicker than they can clamor back to the top of the heap where they can live off the efforts of others. Why do the Obama ‘change’ artists have such outfits on their resumes and in their backgrounds, do you suppose?
By keeping people mesmerized, the MSM financial outfits are doing their part to preserve the current [powers] paradigm and for this they are richly rewarded. I have no doubt that some time between now and the close on Friday, each of the major financial channels will have someone or other on pimping the idea that “This is a great time to be buying…by historical stands, things are cheap! Buy ‘em while you can…” Yada, yada, yada.
Oh sure, some time they will be right, as a broken clock is still right twice a day, but not until we first drop the Dow down to the 6,500 (or lower) level, if I have it dialed in right.
There, feel better now?
Ad Sales Faltering
Interesting anecdote:
“Today, at the gun store, I overheard the proprietor being approached by a salesman for the local throwaway paper.
“You should consider buying an ad in our paper; there are great deals on ad space with the economy down the way it is…”
“I’m not really interested in more traffic right now. My problem is that I can’t get inventory. The shelves are bare!”
(salesman departs, confused)
What a problem to have, and what a special time we live in…
Special, indeed!
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A number of readers have asked for some discussion of whether ‘barter systems’ will replace “money” as the economic washes up on the rocks of economic history over the next couple of years. I sincerely wish the complex future could be reduced to a single concept, like barter, but it can’t. Instead, we’ll all face a tapestry of exchange mechanisms – probably quite different from what we’re used to in the current economy – which will be driven by major fundamental shifts in underlying values at a societal level. What’s clear from a read of Dmitri Orlov’s Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
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What is better than a Christmas New Years Valentine Card?
Why, sending an email to everyone in your ‘contact’ file and tell them about www.urbansurvival.com of course!
“Live on $10,000″ Updated
What? You haven’t ordered the ebook “How to Live on $10,000 a year — or less”? Suit yourself. We’re all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep – still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings… Click here for the page with more details on it.
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