Screw economics for a minute and score one for Patrick Geryl’s quake forecasts – a big one hit overnight. We’ve been watching the August 12-15 quake window carefully, as you’ll recall, but always with the view that such “quake windows” come with a plus or minus 2-3 day border around them since EQ prediction is not a perfect science. That said, the overnight quake of 7.7 in the sea of Okhotsk (roughly north of where the March 2011 quake(s) off Japan occurred, and adjacent to the Kamchatka Peninsula where multiple volcanoes have been spewing) is a major concern on several fronts.
The first is that the USA/West Coast is quickly becoming “due” for a major quake. One needs only to look at the Pacific Tectonic Plate to develop an appreciation that at least since 2004′s killer tsunami and 9+ Banda Aceh quake, the whole Pacific Plate has been in serious motion and setting off large quakes.
That region hasn’t settled down much: You may recall that in April of this year, an 8.6 quake in the Indian Ocean nearby raised fears of a tsunami, although quite fortunately none developed of any consequence. But, a quick check of the map places the region also opposite the West Coast of North America.
Then there was the Chilean quake in February of 2010 which registered at 8.8 on the Richter Scale. Surprisingly, only 525 people died in that quake, although damage was estimated in the $3-$7-billion (USD) range. But the reason is quite clear upon further review: Chile has a long history of 7.0+ earthquakes and – significantly I think – holds the dubious honor of recording the biggest ever quake, back in 1960 at Valdivia.
That quake was notable in that it caused extensive damage in Hilo, Hawaii, where the resulting tsunami arrived several hours after the event and did extensive damage as the tsunami pushed 40-60-feet of water onto the shores of Hawaii.
One notices, upon inspection of a Pacific Plate map that the West Coast of the USA is just “up the fault lines” at the other “corner” of the plate.
Then there’s the matter of the March 2011 quakes off Japan. The first, and largest at 9.0 was the Tohoku quake (also called the Honshu quake) which left us the nuclear mess at Fukushima which is still vexing world health officials, even today. It was not alone, however, since the area was besieged with aftershocks including the April 7 Miyagi quake. More than 15,000 souls perished in the Japanese quake series.
Now, when we go back to a Pacific Plate Map, we note that the quake off Japan (Tohoku/Honshu) was at about the same North latitude as Petaluma, California, or (if you know the area well) about Bodega Bay, some 50-miles north of San Francisco’s downtown by air.
Moreover, as you can see by the location of the overnight quake west of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the equivalent north latitude, dragged over to the Pacific Northwest would put it an antipodal quake around 30-miles north of Vancouver, BC, about as far north as Comox, BC, best known perhaps for the Canadian Forces up there.
Should the West Coast be worried? Hell yes. Don’t forget, as we reminded Peoplenomics readers recently, there is that fellow who supposedly predicted the 2011 Tohoku/Honshu series, who says now that we have had this first quake, there will be two more, including US West Coast. So yesterday’s warning to have earthquake preps at the ready is to be taken quite seriously.
I mean, as a parent, this is something that I’ll be calling our kids up in the Pacific Northwest to update them on, as soon as the sun gets up over on that side of the country.
Whew! Can we get back to economic news? Well, no, not just yet.
You need to read the latest email I received this morning from Patrick Geryl:
“Hi George,
This was the video i made last week predicting August 14 – 15 as a big quake date because of the 2 Triple Line Ups withe the Earth…
August 14 – 15, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Saturn – Mars – Earth
August 14 – 15, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Pluto – Earth – Venus
http://youtu.be/H_v3K–mdCk Same dates where on this video… published months ago… And also other ones coming… http://youtu.be/r_rIta6uid0 Some people used my predictions for claiming this one…
I don’t care but it should be obvious that i published far in advance… Made several improvements since my first video…
However i still have to find out why there are no big earthquakes on calculated dates… Once found… it must be possible to predict all big ones years beforehand… Will keep you updated
~Patrick Geryl”
And, of course, a read of the materials over on Patrick’s website (here) should be of interest because 2012 could be more than just a movie.
Geryl’s work leaves open additional quakes in this window we’re in now and that’s on top of the Japan quake forecaster who says expect a run of three in a row – and his predictions included US West Coast.
Being prepped ain’t no game on this stuff: Got it?
The reports this week of a huge “stripe on the sun” is – with credit to Patrick on this) exactly the kind of “angry sun” activity which goes along with old images of “angry sun.“ So, 2012 may be something real, after all.
And you know what? The real problem is that if it doesn’t happen exactly on December 21, people are going to have a gigantic sigh of relief, but the predictive lingusitics work has it in Spring 2013…and oh, I don’t suppose we need to mention the implications of that?
Gotta read a Geryl book, or two, or three, to grasp the significance of this stuff.
—
One other curiosity – a deleted event from USGS just ahead of the big quake:
“DELETED: Event nc 71831141 == EVENT DELETED NOTIFICATION == ***This event has been deleted after review by a seismologist.*** Geographic coordinates: 40.117N, 122.072W Magnitude: 5.1 Universal Time (UTC): 14 Aug 2012 03:08:50 Time near the Epicenter: 13 Aug 2012 20:08:50
Location with respect to nearby cities:
9 km (6 miles) NE (47 degrees) of Gerber, CA 11 km (6 miles) NNE (13 degrees) of Los Molinos, CA
11 km (7 miles) NNE (23 degrees) of Tehama, CA
46 km (29 miles) NNW (334 degrees) of Chico, CA
181 km (113 miles) NNW (344 degrees) of Sacramento, CA “
Processing artifact fgrom the 02:59:42 Okhotsk quake, most likely?
—
So as we wander through Tuesday, the window’s open, and we’ll see what jumps out of it, so to speak. Which gets us to…
Crashes Happen When?
It’s taken as an article of faith (so far) that stock market panics do not happen during presidential election years. Not that there is any particular, or identifiable, reason why this might be so. The only roadblock to such a thing is that it hasn’t happened in the past and all big panics, declines, routs, pullbacks – or call ”em what you will” – haven’t for far.
This is options expiration week with some indices making their monthly mark Thursday while stock options are generally Friday.
Talking to Robin Landry Monday, he’s looking for any pullback below about 1,388 on the S&P to be a sign the wave 2 rally off the 2008-2009 decline is over, but there’s still a chance that we could pop over 1,422 on the S&P which could lead as high as the 1,600 area.
What he is worried about is the massive exodus of “regular” investors. Program trading (HFT) is something like 99% of market action now. It’s like the quants are all dressed up in their Machine Gun Kelly gear trying to make money on a craps game where all the players have gone home, or are taking their money off the table. (Note even the hat style is back!!!)
Not Hacked
The Hong Kong exchange says no, there was no “printer hack” overnight. No impact on markets, which were up a full one percent there overnight.
Econ Data du Jour
Where to begin? How’s about retail sales…
“The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) above July 2011. Total sales for the May through July 2012 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2012 percent change was revised from -0.5 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.7% (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from June 2012 and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 11.8 percent (±3.1%) from July 2011 and sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores were up 10.6 percent (±4.3%) from last year. “
Fine Print to Know: This is dollars. (that’s what “not adjusted for price changes means). You can sell less unit volume in retail and have prices going up, so that it looks like retail is up but what’s really going on is less unit volumes at higher prices.
Which is why the Baltic Dry Index is again falling on its ass. Down something like 40 percent in the past year. As goes the Baltic, so goes the economy, but don’t listen to me. Hell, I’m just a nutter in the East Texas Outback, right? Lag time is 3-5 months, usually, I mean if you can read a chart.
Damn this is fun. I may have to give up ViseGrips and just go right to hammering my left thumb with a 16-ounce framing hammer. Maybe my Kobalt textured face one…hmmm…
Oh well, next? Oh yes, Product Prices out this morning, too:
“The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods moved down 1.0 percent in May and declined 0.2 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods decreased 0.5 percent in June, and the crude goods index fell 3.6 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the same rate as in May. “
Aha!
“The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods moved down 1.0 percent in May and declined 0.2 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods decreased 0.5 percent in June, and the crude goods index fell 3.6 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the same rate as in May. “
Fine, but what about FOOD?
“Finished foods: The index for finished consumer foods moved up 0.5 percent in June, the largest advance since a 1.0-percent rise in November 2011. Over ninety percent of the June increase can be traced to prices for meats, which moved up 3.1 percent. An advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables also was a factor in the rise in finished foods prices. “
And, since the Drought of ’12 didn’t end overnight, I expect the food prices will be going up at an annual rate of 10-15% by next spring. if not before. D’ohg!
Race to the Bottom
Frigging loverly: The press release out from the California Comptroller:
“SACRAMENTO – State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California’s cash balance, receipts and disbursements in June and for the complete 2011-2012 fiscal year. “The fiscal year ended with solid numbers in June – the State’s largest revenue month – but some revenue streams remain weak,” said Chiang.
“California’s economy, like its General Fund Budget, still has a long way to go before it can achieve a full recovery.” The 2011-12 fiscal year ended with $87.8 billion in receipts and $89.2 billion in disbursements, but that shortfall was $1 billion lower than projected. In the month of June, total revenues were $247 million (2.2 percent) above projections made in the Governor’s May Revision. Personal income taxes rose $496.3 million above (7.7 percent) projections, and sales taxes were also up $1.3 million (0.1 percent). Corporate taxes were down for the month, coming in $305.7 million (-15.5 percent) below projections.
The State ended the fiscal year with a cash deficit of $9.6 billion. That deficit is being covered with internal borrowing (temporary loans from special funds). “
Ever-helpful as we try to be, we took the estimated population of California (about 39.7 million, not counting the half of Mexico that’s there, the other half being in Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico) and penciled it out to just $254 per person. So if you want to go ahead and all mail that to Sacramento….
Marketing ‘Religion
Seen what the Catholic Church has produced in the way of an ad series? Big dollar, high production values ad, to be sure…
Marketing, marketing…to market to market…
More after this…ont>
