The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing report came out this morning and we notice that it was down 10.41 while only a more modest read of minus 2 was expected. In the big scheme of things this is not the end of the world, since there is plenty of other data coming this week. Still, the market will likely start with a kind of post-Viagra letdown this week. Last week’s exhaustion rally was fun…but only while it lasted.
Need a pertinent summary to wilt the Wheaties?
“The August Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated over the month. The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the fi rst time since October 2011, falling thirteen points to -5.9. At -5.5, the new orders index was below zero for a second consecutive month, and the shipments index fell six points to 4.1. The prices paid index climbed nine points to 16.5, pointing to a pickup in the pace of increase in input prices, while the prices received index hovered just above zero for a third consecutive month.“
Seasonally this week is what…quadruple witching? That’s options expire on Friday of this week and besides other units this is quarterly bonus time for some. Seasonally, end of August to mid September has been a fairly reliable high and since 2008 showed, presidential election years are no immune from large declines so what’s ahead should be amusing to watch.
Islands and Oil Prices
You may not remember the story I wrote on January 14, 2009 (“Strategic Contingencies: Obama’s Persian Gulf Test?“ [Peoplenomics #384, Jan 11, 2009]) but we just keep edging closer to what I outlined there. Namely Camelot 2 meeting a Cuban Missile Crisis 2 in the Persian Gulf. I mention this because events – like these uprisings outside embassy – could lead somewhere.
A reader (Bobby) who has a better memory than me, pointed out the article in light of recent events and especially because earlier this month an Arab League Panel condemned Iran over three contested islands: Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa.
With reports that an “Armada of British naval power massing in the Gulf as Israel prepares an Iran Strike” have been getting traction, we’d have to reminder readers that “Abu Masa” is easy to say, not too complicated for news anchors to pronounce, and it could be where a showdown over who owns the Gulf get’s started.
Particularly when we are sorting through the nuances of Iranian remarks this weekend that oil should be in the $150 range.
More curious is that in the official Iranian media, the PressTV site, you’ll notice the very, very small tanker in the associated picture they ran with the story. We have to wonder if that’s somehow meaningful, and does size matter?
The other Islands story this morning involved the dust-up between China and Japan over the Diayu Islands. In the latest escalation, China is angry that some Japanese companies have decided to withdraw manufacturing as part of the protest and rising tensions.
Naturally, the US has to posture and bluster a bit to appear more in Japan’s corner, so we’ve agreed to a missile defense radar program.
Yet, as Peoplenomics readers learned this weekend, it’s all superficial mainstream media antics since there’s no way the US will do anything to slow down the Chinese buying of US bonds, which the Chinese are flipping through a couple of large banks and buying up property in the US at distressed prices. Yep, turning our own debt against us. But, that’s how these things go.
Global Demonstrations Continuing
Not dying down, just yet. Another round of anti-US actions took place in Afghanistan this morning.
Then there’s Indonesia where anti-US demonstrations were underway earlier today in Jakarta where our bureau chief has been watching things simmer:
“The embassy here was attacked by ‘protestors’ against the ‘anti-Muslim’ film. I use quotes, because both sides of this are manufactured. The ‘protestors’ in this case are being well-paid to attend. Local details.
Radio Sonora is reporting fire-bombing, large rowdy crowds and the like in front of the embassy. Keep in mind that the embassy looks like a maximum security prison, with high concrete walls topped with concertina wire. The only two entrances are hardened with bomb-proof glass, etc. There are additional walls, hardened structures, etc. inside the compound that would make it virtually impossible to go straight to any sensitive areas without meeting significant resistance. Perhaps the events of early Sunday morning were not isolated, just hushed up. “
And after a weekend of chasing around after details about an early-morning school explosion – which curiously was hardly even mentioned by Indonesian media, our bureau chief Bernard Grover reports a side-show as developed with two volcanoes deciding to wake up and it’s getting lots of ink in the local press.
By-the-by: Interesting little side note: Muslim group NU mulls tax fatwa (declaring taxes haraam/sinful/don’t pay) until corruption is cleaned up. That does have some marketing potential…
Teachers Strike to Court
Although it looked over the weekend like the Chicago Teacher’s strike would be over, no soap. Seems the reason is lies in complexity of the proposed settlement. So today, look for mayor Emanuel send the legal types to court to mandate an end to the strike. In background, we wonder that what will do to democorps/union relations.
IS Your DNA Protected?
That’s the issue this week as the American Civil Liberties Union and three plaintiffs are going into federal court seeking to have California’s DNA swabbing system tossed out as illegal search.
The problem? The samples are taken at time of arrest and, in case you’ve forgotten the fine print here, people haven’t been convicted of anything at this point. So…is it protected against illegal search? Likely to end up in the supreme court. Which wouldn’t be so important, except that DNA is proving it’s quite the “cold case” tool.
What’s important here is mental accuity: While it is a dandy tool and all, I’m still waiting for a cold case involving someone not convicted of a crime previously to be caught. Otherwise? It’ll probably go into the same restrictions bin as fingerprinting….
Just a Global Corporate Takeover
If you that NAFTA (one of the key jobjacking moves) was a big deal, you need to get up to speed on the Trans-Pacific Partnership – TPP – which is being constructed to give corporations power over government policies.
Like NAFTA and its kin, this is another pig putting on lipstick. In secret, for now…since such crap doesn’t do well in the light of day.
Power to the Jobjackers
India is putting in $18 billion worth of power grid improvements, but we wonder how much that will really fix?
I notice that until this began to be an issue in the jobjacked Globalista world, they couldn’t just fix it for regular people….no sir!
Watch Three Gorges
From our Canadian analyst:
“Chinese media’s USA arm advises the Three Gorges Dam complex commenced a “full-storage capacity test” on September 10 that will take the reservoir from 165 metres to 175 metres by the end of October.
This seems odd as last month the dam was dealing with a floodwater onrush at 146.7 metres, and the army was clearing away debris for generator damage avoidance. No mention is made of the shipping locks’ operational status. By the way, Typhoon Sinba is well to the north.
Naturally all this may engender interest in The Company’s 2011 Annual Report which logic indicates would be here. This could be a report issued April 25, 2012 (uploaded in August?) although it seems to be under the name of a “primary subsidiary“. “
I’ll be the guy in the back of the room wondering if all that weight of water will set off more quake-shifting in the region…
Temporal marker: Close to a space station crew landing this weekend…
We’re getting really close to Patrick Geryl’s next major quake window this week, let’s not forget – around the 21st. Say, isn’t that Fall, too? No? 22nd? Close enough for gov’t work.
More after this…