(Palestine, TX) I’m not sure how long it will take before someone in Washington sobers up, comes down, wakes up, or otherwise figures this, but have you noticed that the $40-billion a month print job on Quantitative Easing Indefinite (*QEI) doesn’t seem to be much more than a holding action for the economy to get us past elections without collapse?
“Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.”
No, that’s not the clever prose of Mr. Cry in Ure Oatmeal, that’s part of the Fed statement yesterday.
As I outlined for Peoplenomics subscribers in Wednesday’s report, the National Trainwreck of an Economy is back into the “print or die mode.” That’s because of huge numbers of Baby Boomers retiring and wanting to spend some of those life savings – yet there are too few youngsters coming up to buy up those stocks and other assets. Consequently, the Fed is “making up $40-billion a month” and even that isn’t buying a major stock market rally.
Worse, this week’s Mass Layoffs look benign, at 122,462 heads rolling, but if you look at a 16-week moving average trend channel, looks like the bloom is off that rose, too.
But enough of this foreplay! Let’s get out the Astroglide and see what’s slipping out in the way of data this morning, shall we?
First there’s the weekly unemployment report – not a big deal – except it’s a number that frames short-term thinking.
“In the week ending October 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 369,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending October 13, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 13 was 3,254,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,256,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,269,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,276,500.”
Then we have the Durable Goods Report which is what?
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $19.6 billion or 9.9 percent to $218.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 13.1 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 9.1 percent.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up two of the last three months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $224.2 billion. This followed a 2.9 percent August decrease.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $980.8 billion. This increase followed a 1.7 percent August decrease.
So there we have it: The Fed is printing money fast enough to keep the economy flying – at least sort of – and whoever wins will have hell to pay next spring.
Oh, the answer as to how much QE will it take? About this much: the markets are pointing to a big gain at the open this morning. A cynical quip about dead cat bounce will be ignored, though we could just be “kissing the underside” of support before continuing on down in coming weeks.
Washington Winds Change
The continuing momentum of the Romney campaign is starting to be felt in Washington. As I’ve been explaining, the Romney camp is likely to turn on the economic spigot (easy money, print more) and that’s one reason why the Dow is not collapsing in a heap right here and now.
I’m hearing that the House and Senate appropriations worker bees are putting pencils to a 2013 appropriations bill that may hit subcommittees around November 13th, which means overtime for staffers.
With the Thanksgiving ahead, the senate debate on the National Defense Authorization Act in the Senate may kill dinner plans if chief turkey Harry Reid doesn’t get his way: He’s planning to work the senate over T-Day is he doesn’t get his way, or at least that’s the word from the DC rumor mill.
Of course all this is subject to change depending on who wins, but clearly the defense lobby is hoping for a Romney win.
What Reid may not understand is that the presidency might not be decided by Thanksgiving, if court challenges run amuck.
Is 12 Days Up, Yet?
…or something like that is how much longer we have to put up with the insufferable politicking.
Sensing the winds changing, Obama is stepping up the digs at Romney up in Ohio. Some of the columnists are wondering if Romney’s momentum is real (yes). One this has changed: Romney has closed the gender gap a good bit.
Oh, and down in Galveston, TX county commissioner Ken Clark, a republican who is sponsoring his own showing of “Dreams of My Real Father” which questions who Barack Obama’s father is, has landed himself in a storm of protest.
“Hands OFF That Keyboard!”
Today’s cheery little note from the global march to a police state (it is what the One World Order’s got to do, right?) involves those lovely Dutch who about to get hornswoggled into allowing their police departments that it’s OK to hack into foreign computers.
But, of course, we understand that the Dutch, who’ve obviously had their major export of ganja seeds drying up since shipping companies and the government got tough, are simply trying to stay in the game internationally. Squeaky wheel gets greased.
Say, you don’t think they’re going to set up a contracting office like the Brits and Aussies did with Menwith Hill and Alice Springs to have foreign nationals monitor US phone calls back when that was a no-no, do you?
Chemical EMP Versus…
Say, this is a bit overdue, since a chemically pumped EMP device was in the movie Oceans Eleven which was…um….2001….but Boeing this month has managed to fly one of these lil gems on a cruise missile.
Now, what makes this fun (besides keeping the Phantom Works folks busy, is that the US is now able to field two major systems to crash enemy computers. The other being? Windows updates, maybe?
Spared the ‘Cane
Hurricane Sandy is heading out to sea via the Bahamas, so look for rain in Florida, but not the end of the world.
Remember Where You Heard It?
Peoplenomics I think it was where I mentioned how China is building a huge land army which will be ready to take on the whole of the Middle East withing 5-7 years? Well, lookie here: “China’s increasing military spending unnevers neighbors” says a WaPo report. Gee, gosh, who’da thought?
Yellow highlighter on how Economic Depressions end: Global War. We really oughta crash the economy now – because the longer we postpone, the larger the Chinese army going into the sand box for the depression-trough bottom war predicted by longwave economics…but that’d be just too obvious.
Hey…NASA press release here:
“The average area covered by the Antarctic ozone hole this year was the second smallest in the last 20 years, according to data from NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. Scientists attribute the change to warmer temperatures in the Antarctic lower stratosphere.”
It’s safe to come out from under the bed and go to work…
More after this…