The latest national employment situation report was released within the hour by the Labor Department. It’s got some good news, and some bad, depending on your particular bent as you read it:
“Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Sta- tistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.7 million jobs have been lost. In April, job los- ses were large and widespread across nearly all major private-sector indus-tries. Overall, private-sector employment fell by 611,000.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons increased by 563,000 to 13.7 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 6.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 3.9 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
Unemployment rates rose in April for adult men (9.4 percent) and blacks (15.0 percent). The jobless rates for adult women (7.1 percent), teenagers (21.5 percent), whites (8.0 percent), and Hispanics (11.3 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 6.6 percent in April, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.2 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 571,000 in April to 8.8 million. This group has more than doubled in size over the past 12 months. (See table A-8.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 498,000 to 3.7 million over the month and has risen by 2.4 mil- lion since the start of the recession in December 2007. (See table A-9.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
The civilian labor force participation rate rose in April to 65.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.9 percent. The employ- ment-population ratios for adult men and women showed little or no change over the month. However, since December 2007, the men’s ratio was down by 4.4 per- centage points, while the women’s ratio was down by 1.3 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
In April, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially un- changed at 8.9 million; however, the number of such workers has risen by 3.7 million over the past 12 months.
—
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 539,000 in April to 132.4 million; pri- vate-sector employment declined by 611,000. Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 5.7 million. In April, job los- ses continued in most major private-sector industries. Employment rose in the federal government mainly due to hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010.”
One could look at the alternative measures of labor underutilization portion of the report here and
observe that the ‘real’ unemployment rate (if you back out the PhD’s flipping burgers and such) was running at 15.8% in April, up 2-10th’s of a percent for the month.
And the even worse news is that in the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Debt Report (which they insist on calling ‘credit’) we read how the total amount of consumer debt is continuing to decline…..and has increased to a -5.2% annual rate.
True, revolving debt was less bad – down at only a -6.8% rate for the month compared with a -12.1% rate the month previous, but the nonrevolving debt, which had been 1.2% annualized positive last month is now dropping at a 4.2% annualized rate.
How does it all add up? Well, it’s like I’ve said for some time now: We’re in the gulf between outbreaks of crisis: Come the end of the month, things are due (linguistically) to start popping again and when they do, it ought to become apparent to most everyone that what flips a big recession into a depression is when the public starts to lose faith in a better tomorrow. Clearly, the tiny bumps in some positive aspects of today’s numbers could be painted as optimistic but that’s only if the person doing the painting doesn’t explain error rates in reports. In that case, the so-called bright spots as I read ‘em are all within statistical noise.
The Consumer Debt Report, on the other hand, is probably a cleaner way to look at things, since if people aren’t willing to take on debt, the whole leveraged lifestyle paradigm collapses (wait till next fall for this part and let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves yet) because the global corporatist system is based on perpetual growth at rates faster than humans reproduce.
So just go to work today and try not to think about – let alone do anything about – the latest stair step down. Focus on the simplified headlines like “Layoffs slow to 539K in April; jobless rate rises.” And try not to remember the real unemployment rate is pushing 16%.
Build-A-Burger, Side of Depression
Sorry if your private jet is down for maintenance and you won’t be able to fly in to Greece this weekend. But, if your plane was up, and your pilots not on vacation, then maybe you could score a pass to the weekend’s Bilderberger gathering in Greece.
That – according to reports - is where the PowersThatBe are meeting to make a key decision: Shall we have a short, sharp Second Depression, of the inflationary kinda, or should we have a long, slow agonizing one of the deflationary kind? How the deflationary kind work out is long – like the US First Depression. While the inflationary kind can be shorter (Weimar example) both are equally hard on the people who have to suffer through them.
We need to have very clear thinking on this: While it’s true that the number of banks that have failed so far is not up to first Depression levels, the number of financial failures globally is certainly approaching those levels. What people don’t cotton to is the idea that in lieu of just banks and brokers in the First Depression, this Second Depression features banks, brokers, real estate outfits, large insurance companies, automakers, and the list goes on. Add ‘em all up side-by-side, and the numbers are pretty close to the first couple of years of Depression 1. Remember, in the First Depression we didn’t lose whole countries.
—
Shareholder Note: Since you and I (collectively ‘the public’) now own 79% of AIG, we have to note that AIG just lost $7.81 billion in Q1. The headlines are that it’s a ‘smaller loss’. To my way of thinking, it’s like being partly dead. And who are the geniuses that cut the AIG deal who bought 80% of a company without a public seat in the Board Room? Thaty’d be Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke.
—
I don’t know about you, but if I had a company which had gone horribly wrong, the very first thing I’d hold out for (in return for a nearly 80% ownership position) would be to throw the old Board out on its collective ass. Not the Bushco appointees, nossir.
I promise to stop reminding you who ran the ship of state onto the rocks some day…once we’ve got this puppy patched up and refloated. But, in the meantime, as long as more losses could potentially mean more of our hard-earned taxpayer dough , I’ll just keep pressing the point that only madmen or coconspirators would not give the public board-level control under the guise of avoiding ‘nationalizing’ a company. Are you kidding? Call it what it is….and can someone besides me remember that denial is how we got into this mess in the first place….
Brother Can You Spare
Speaking of which: Just $75 billion more for banks... Why we Americans are truly the most generous rescuers of bankers, aren’t we? Either that or the people we sent to Washington just don’t give a damn about what the folks back home want. Naw, that couldn’t be the case…oh nothing so dark as being bought off by the special interests, I’m sure….
Smoke-a-Barbara
Fludee Do
Latest box score in the flue cases:
|
Date |
Est. Mortality* |
Cases Total |
% Case Change |
|
May 8 |
2.21% |
2,371 |
12.9% |
|
May 7 |
2.51% |
2,099 |
+38.5% |
|
May 6 |
2.45% |
1516 |
+ 34.8% |
|
May 5 |
2.97% |
1124 |
+ 14.1% |
|
May 4 |
3.19% |
985 |
+60.1% |
|
May 2 |
2.974% |
615 |
+85.8% |
|
May 1 |
3.77% |
331 |
|
* Estimated Mortality Calculation
The way I look at ‘mortality’ is pretty simple: I look at the death rate in countries which have experienced deaths, not those which have confirmed the virus and have no deaths. I’m sure we could have a week-long seminar over whether this is sound reasoning, but I figure it this way: Local (here in Texas) sources tell me (informally) that the virus may be infectious up to 2-days before symptom onset and the virus sheds (e.g. is transmissible) more than 7-days after symptom onset, and possibly as long as 9 days which is unusual. So given that the transmissibility window is as long as 11-days, I’m only counting in my mortality guestimate those countries where one death (or more) has occurred. As of today the calc’s are:
Totals deaths: 44
________divided by______
Total Cases: 2,371
Less 0 dead countries: – 383
subtotal: 1,988
Mortality Rate: 2.21%
The fuse is lit in a lot more.
