UrbanSurvival

Many times I have told you pet idea that there is – somewhere in the Washington DC environs – a pseudo-government entity that  models the best future for America, pulls strings to make it happen and survives administrations. 

I’ve hypothesized its existence because only this “hidden variable” concept explains the lack of policy differences between the Bush  and Obama administrations.

This became particularly clear this month with the posting on YouTube of then-senator Obama’s 2007 speech about “false choices” and how there would be “no illegal wiretapping of Americans.”

Right, sure, you betcha.

The existence of a single influencing organization isn’t the only possible answer:  The TV show Alias included multiple levels of government operations which could exist competitively including one called “the Trust.”  The “movie is the message” haunts us again.

The actual name of the non-elected government entity isn’t so important as we can offer a smorgasbord of reasons for its existence:

One possibility is that ETs or alien contact is already in play at that the organization called government is acting to perpetuate its leadership role.

Another is that there’s some “terrible secret” as perhaps a weapon, or maybe even key scientific reason (interdimensional portals? Clif’s new electrics?) which can’t be allowed into the hands of commoners.

Or perhaps simply that America still has powerful enemies and that something as simple as Russia’s detente with the West may be a sucker’s game, or who knows…maybe there really is a Fourth Reich…

All of these concepts – plus a lot more – are floating around on the net; the difficulty being choice of the correct answer since no scores are offered.

Our Directorate 153 is a meta answer.  You don’t need to insert one of the “known” answers since it may be (and likely is) something else entirely.

But, the pointed resurfacing of the civil rights talker versus the civil rights doer argues convincingly that an off-books entity is framing choices and strategies.

If so, that’s a very, very, un-American road to follow.  But the trend is clear: the small policy delta/change between Clinton and Bush has narrowed again between Bush and Obama.

Most likely?  It is the pinchers movement of the New World Orderists (enveloping horn strategy).  Applied slowly, few notice.  And thanks to digital hypnosis, even fewer care.

When Barrack Obama and Dick Cheney are both on the same side of a topic, either patriotism makes strange comrades, or the danger of the hidden variable is growing over time.

My Kind of Crop Duster

With us taking off on our annual Big Trip in a week (which means an oil change for the plane and such) I couldn’t help but click when a reader sent me a link to the new Air Tractor Irregular Warfarea Aircraft.

Air Tractors have a find rep as a crop duster, but like so many American companies, we see the tentacles of the Security State now engulfing another industry…

But, since organic growth *(other than your iPhone being obsoleted every year) is about toast, companies have to do what they have to do.

So while private pilots are being aggressively intimidated (See Flying for “Pilots Have No Rights“) aircraft companies are doing what companies do…going where the money is…

Still, 180 knots for 10 hours and almost 2,100 mile range…what a fun two-place this would make, if only we still had the economy and the upper middle class intact.

An Invitation to Turn Pro?

No, not as a writers, but as a beer drinker.  Got this email just about the time I was sampling a bottle of Black Freighter from Patient Zero’s secret stash:

“Dear Madam / Dear Sir, The organization of the 3th edition of the “World Beer Challenge – III International Brewery Awards 2013 to be held in Estoril 26.27.28.29 June, advises that the closing date for registration expires on June 20, this year. Together we refer entry form and fee structure, the regulation can be found on our website: www.worldbeerchallenge.com \

- registration@worldbeerchallenge.com

Gee…would that mean turning pro? Besides, Portugal is too far to go for a beer in this economy…tempting though…

Readers Writes

From Seth  (he writes, not speaks, which is a Jane Robert’s pun, which may be too obscure for this early on Monday…):

“George   Check this out , I think this is real , or a really amazing coincidence , but I have yet to be able to find any FRN’s past 2009   Do you know about this , just look in your wallet , this could be something meaningful…

Yes…but don’t ask me how.  Everything is meaningful…it’s just the “How?” that’s a bitch to figure.  And besides, don’t we have work to do, or something?

Write when you break even..

George Ure (george at ure dot net)

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Is Poverty a Choice?

Statistics are ugly little buggers.  We begin this morning with a scandal story or our own, assess why Japan’s mini-crash this week means something in longwave econ terms, and then we get into the good stuff:  As we look at the problem of whether poverty is a “choice” we quickly descend into harsh realities of self-deception.  We develop some notes on how humans (like us) can still us  shortcuts to get great economic results.  What we find, I think is interesting and useful.  But not as useful as our “first things” column and a few headlines, along with that first cup of coffee…

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Last week’s report is always here.

My, wasn’t that a peach of a rally Thursday?  Why the Dow put on rocket pants and blasted up 181 points. Are green shoots becoming strong trunks, or is something else going on here?

 

Would I have much to write about, as a perma-bear, if I believed the hype?  When I looked earlier, the Dow futures were down a hundred, but they came back a good bit.

 

My friend Roger Reynolds, who publishes an email newsletter (subscription requests to randkreynolds@usa.net, I hope he won’t mind ) has a really good take on the market’s present action before we get into this morning’s Producer Price data…and I don’t think he’d mind me sharing…

 

“W D Gann wrote 70-80 years ago that when a bull market peaked out the decline would start with a HARD DOWN DAY that would be ignored. Investors would feel it’s just another correction in the trend up. BUT, HE WROTE IT WOULD BE THE “SHOT ACROSS THE BOW” THAT THE TREND WAS CHANGING.

 

In late May the dow had such a down day that generated a reverse wave sell signal. The Dow bounced back the next day so things seemed just fine.

 

BUT, the dow has now had two declines to the 50 day average and the 20 day average has flattened to slightly declining.

 

THE TEST IS NOW HERE!!!!

 

Will the dow—that has rallied back to the 20 day average—-be able to rally through the 20 day average OR will it fall back again and break down through the rising 50 day average??? “

 

IF” IT FALLS DOWN THROUGH THE 50 DAY—-THEN THE TREND IS DOWN!!!! REMEMBER—-EVERY BULL MARKET TOP IN HISTORY HAS HAD A SIMILAR SEQUENCE OF EVENTS WITH THE MOVING AVERAGES. ——

 

CLUE—on stockcharts.com put in $NYAD. Where it has TYPE, scroll down to cumulative. Notice that the advance decline line is doing MUCH WORSE—-why—the interest rate stocks are potentially leading the market down. “

 

With a couple of Hindenburg Omens in play, and tossing in my consigliere’s note that crashes tend to happen about 55-days after an all-time high, we’ll just sit here with the popcorn and snacks at the ready while the latest economic data circles for a landing.

 

Longwave Econ Notes

Pee-Pee Aye, Syria Ho!

Mi consigliere thinks not much will happen until the Fed meeting next week, or at least until Consumer Prices next week.

 

Still, with the Hindenburgs afoot, we can EXPECT the PowersThatBe to poke sharp sticks in sensitive places in order to create a distraction.  Not having a hive (of anything other than scandals) to poke at in Washington, it is hardly coincidental then, that the PTB are going to beat on Syria with a stick which means yes, no Congressional Declaration of War, but your tax dollars are soon going to be directly supporting the anti-Assad side in Syria.

 

So, how does this play out? 

 

Well, it doesn’t.  Dark Forces are already trapping humans into a kind of “digital ascension” more fully explained in this morning’s Coping section, but the net effect of which is until nukes go off, the PTB can get away with anything.  People aren’t aware of much beyond Facebook anymore.

 

We have before us a major study in group-think, me-too’isms, and war drumming in the form of the story “John McCain, Lindsey Graham call for no-fly zone.“

 

OK, there goes $50-million a day.

 

Not only that, but here comes a plan to resettle Syrian refugees in America which is like importing democrats, if I have it figured right.  Great…let’s get right to the one-partry system then, shall we?  (This is also the immigration bill plan, too…import democrats…)

 

Beneath the skin, the US/Wall St./PowersThatBe know that when the bond market reverses the decline it has been in since 1983, or so, and when rates begin to rise, there will be a horrible economic collapse which has been postponed (so far) by the massive printing of [paper] money.

 

Besides a series of really odd tweets yesterday, we have to wonder if Matt Drudge is seeing the same play, since his site this morning uses WAR: USA MILITARY SUPPORT FOR SYRIAN “REBELS” as its lead.

 

Obviously, this will piss off Russia, and so over the balance of the summer, expect there to be a fine ramp-up of saber-rattling and this will (nominally) be posited by mediocy reporters as the “cause” for the market decline to come.

 

The only matter is timing.

 

Long wave economics, which is my pet soufflé, argues that global war shouldn’t come yet since we have not yet had our washout at the bottom of the Kondratieff wave.  But, those who study K-Waves (*including Ures truly) worry that the foundation of the war cycle may be rooted in something other than the present moment bottom.

 

Is it possible that the foundation for war is laid when economic malfeasance begins such that no matter how long the “paper reckoning” is put off, the wheels of global war are already in motion?  We see the run from 1929 until the Germany invasion of Poland in 1939 as a benchmark.

 

As I continue to argue, our real first-wave down of the present long wave decline began in 2001 with “terrorism” which has  created (up until now) manageable conflict and social employment both directly through the military and related industries, but also with the less apparent AmericCorps which is our modern (stealth) analog to the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps of the 1930′s.

 

While we had our 1929-style collapse, as the internet bubble burst, we’ve papered over its consequences by creating terrorism, the security state, and (today’s cherry) a new war without declaration.  Those $7-trillion than wiped out your retirement when the Internet Bubble burst, or the one that stole your lake house?  Economic consequences of not taking our medicine promptly.

 

Now, by keeping illegitimate banks solvent, we have forced the corporate-government merger into existence so rather than letting bad money go away (bankrupt and liquidating its assets) we instead see it’s now running things and outbidding mere voters.

 

Which is why we are marching into war – we need someone to blame and Assad will do fine, and Iran next, if necessary.

 

And as for the numbers?  This morning’s Producer Price results:

 

“The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.5 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods fell 0.7 percent in April and 0.6 percent in March. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods declined 0.1 percent in May, and the crude goods index advanced 2.2 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended May 2013.

 

If those kinds of increases continue, it would be a 6-something percent annualized inflation rate when it works its way through the pipeline to the consumer.  Thankfully, it’s a noisy number and there is still deflation in the pipeline.

 

So, as Roger noted in his email letter, we wait to see if we can force one more rally out of this market…and wonder how long it can remain Hindenburg-like:  Lighter than air.

 

The notion that aggressive central bank (the Fed in our case) intervention can save the economy from the ravages of  cyclical declines of the Long Wave has been a cornerstone of Central Bank policy.

 

But don’t look now:  This may not work out as planned…although there is plenty of hysteresis in the process.  A brilliant working paper from senior economist Ken Miyajima at the Bank for International Settlements says in part…

 

“In other words, central bank dollar purchases to stem exchange rate appreciation or related exchange rate volatility are not associated with an adjustment of the near-term exchange rate forecasts in the direction of depreciation, and vice versa. This suggests intervention may not change the near-term exchange rate expectations….”

 

After Miyajima’s paper, we wonder “Hmmm…What else isn’t working?”

 

Then questions get truly ugly:  Will going “all in” with the print paper and hope no one notices really pay off?  We should know before 2017 to 2018, since that’s when bonds either have to stabilize or begin paying higher rates in keeping with the long wave.

 

And like all cyclical depressions, they always come down to jobs (and we have no job creation to speak of) so the surest way to create jobs is to go to war, destroy production, and rebuild.

 

 

More after this…

 

 

 

Departments & Entities

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The Friday Scandal Sheet

Fresh Scandal – Fresh Scandal…get it while it’s hot!

This is better than Lois taking the Fifth, meta data on calls, buying medical records…why this rivals Snowden!

 

” U.S. Agencies said to SWAP DATA with thousands of firms.”

 

Oh, I love how this is coming out. Gives people something to read during boring staff meetings.

 

More than 1,000 IRS employees misusing government credit cards is second tier stuff…  Liked the bad check angle, though.

 

Crooked People

Say, here’s a shocker:  The smell of money corrupts people says a new study.

 

Golly, you think?

 

Global Warming Still Alive

Fearless Leader, who does not subscribe to Peoplenomics, and who has missed the fact that the present solar cycle is turning into a flop which means colder Earth will, nevertheless be unveiling new climate plans next month.

 

I can hardly wait.

 

Friday’s West Spot

In the Northeast,  the rain seems to be ending.  We’ll be up there in 12 days, but who’s counting?

 

We notice that the HAARP hotspot is lightening...so did it work?

 

Iran Voting

Iranians are voting in a presidential contest…which explains why they have been low key lately.

 

Once that’s done, it oughta be back to the rhetoric and sabers…

 

 

More after this….

 

 

Well now, here is an odd thing:  I used to get  a dozen, or so, pretty cool reports of WuJo-like events per month.  But, for whatever reason, then have dried up – gone missing – and everyone I bump into seems to be going about life on a very much undisturbed course.  It’s also like a wet blanket has momentarily been put over that part of human consciousness which recognizes the weird for what it is — weird!

I’m not exactly sure what to make of it, but there are a number of possibilities that deserve mention:

One possibility is that WuJo-like events really were (as some of our analysis suggested) merely artifacts of different psycho-medical conditions.  One being transient global amnesia (TGA) from anti-depressant or SSRIs puts people into an automaton state where they function OK, but may not be fully present and, in Zen terms, “in the Now.”

A parallel thought to this is that the recent discussion and very high word-use of the term “zombie” may be closely related to this.  Could it be that (because subconsciousness leaks) that all the talk about literal zombies is merely a smoke screen for figurative zombie-like behavior popping up?

Another possibility is that that the “Trascendental Object at the end of Time (History)” is somehow (as a passing asteroid or something) locked in a cyclical relationship with humans?  Note that this is a whole area rife with speculation, but nevertheless a non-physical transcendental object (RO for short) might exhibit some very interesting characteristics.

…one of which would be the thinnning of the veils which seem to separate the various dimensions from one-another.

And this, in turn, leads us to speculate about what this would all mean to alchemists (past and present) who distill urine and do other odd things looking for the Philospher’s Stone/Elixer of Life.  Pee-blending is for amateurs, by the way.

Or, have people simple succombed to a massive kind of group hypnosis brought about by moving ever-larger parts of their life into the digital world?

This last possibility is particularly interesting to me, since what’s going on (at a macro / design pattern level) is that humans are, as a herd, slowly engaged in a slow-motion ascension into the infosphere.  And if there’s one aspect all religions seem to agree on it it what?

That information is, after all, what the Creator, Ruler of All, Universe, God, or whatever you choose to call IT brings to the table.

Weird thought to ponder (amidst the IRS scandals, Obamacare rate truth leaking out, pick a new war/distraction, and let’s not talk about this week’s flash-crash in Japan – although we will tomorrow in some detail in our Peoplenomics report [SUBSCRIBE].

For now, we don’t know what specifically drives this cyclicity that seems to be at a low ebb of strangeness and a high point of rational, but that’s fine, since we don’t know what drives the high tide of strangeness that should be starting to come in again any old time now…

Take if for what it’s worth:  People seem to be on an ultra-focused, nose to the grindstone, busily moving as many of their personal effects as they can into the emergent digital “heaven.”

Data, unlike the flesh and blood, does last “forever” (or at least billions of years, potentially) which gives us reason to wonder if, when Jesus was saying “I go to prepare a place for you…” (or words to that effect), whether he wasn’t putting in a colocation center center with a bunch of servers.

Makes the End of History much easier to manage, and besides, ascending into the digital existence is nearly the same thing as making it into Heaven.

Ain’t it?

Call me a skeptic, but is it just possibile that what plays out as the digital ascension is really getting on an escalator going down, instead?  The Ed Snowden disclosures smell of brimstone, to me.  It’d be a fine way for Dark Forces to pull off a masterful Digital Deception, though, wouldn’t it?

Hell: Who needs a heart and purification of intent when we’ve got five bars and a full battery?  Besides, we’ve been taught of technology forever as always being an “up” escalator, right? 

Tactically:  Brilliant long-term play.  No one can stand up and say “I renounce the computer and all its works and all its ways.”   I wonder if that new national data center uses much sulfur.  Yet.

Prepping: Gas Fridges

I had a nice email from my friend Claus Dettelbacher, who you’ll remember of the book The Pre-Revolution Handbook: How a non-violent constitutional movement could transform collapse into rising freedom & real change.  (We’re still watching to see how this comes out…)

Anyway, Claus has, again, been researching gas fridges…

“Hi George,  

I am just researching gas fridges once again. You will be certainly familiar with them. Apart from being more economical generally, they are silent and can be run … well, without electricity.  

There are also dual versions that have a gas/electric backup, so if one runs out of gas or power they still cool your snake venom serums.  

One step further would be one that runs on locally (as on the farm) produced bio gas. I know of some very cheap bio gas farm appliances that e.g. work in Nepal and deliver enough gas for cooking and some light. In your case cooking gas and a fridge would perhaps be more appropriate.  

There is a lot of fear about gas that the electrical industry has purposefully built up over decades.

Gas fridges have big advantages. They are not only silent but also do not have moving parts that can break and therefore last much longer. More simple is better.  

Perhaps some thoughts to write about since cooling stuff in summer is in many ways essential to store food and medicine, especially in a crisis.

Here in Africa it’s also necessary to put almost every food in the fridge because of the omnipresent ants. Like in the Donald Duck picnic anime films, they are everywhere and fast…  

Greetings from the south,  

Claus ”

Pretty good point and I can think of several readers who are into serious prepping, including one who boards horses at his place, who might be able to put some of that biomass to work for a low-pressure gas plant.  And when the gas is gone, the biomass ought to be just about ready for garden use…

Single Preppers…

From the Inbox:

“Hi George,    I just wanted to say thank you for posting my casting notice on your website.  I’ve gotten some great responses.  Thank you so much for your help!   Best,  Brooke  ”

Oh, uh…no problem, tvassistant3@gmail.com, I am sure there are plenty of single preppers who are interested…including maybe my (crazy, EMT, skydiving) son…

Reader J.C. has been pondering the show, by the way:

“G   Wow, single preppers. A whole new marketing niche.  

Hey Baby, how about you come back to my bunker and I will show you how to really prep!  

Would you like to see my Tilapia Aquaponics Tank?  

True love, we could stay down here for 5 years straight.  

A 1 year stand   Bunker dating  

Bunker Match – the next reality show.   Do you want to see a real assault weapon?  

This is my Big Berky  

Survival Lingerie – Something he will never get tired of seeing you in during the long stay  

72 Hour Date Packs  

No longer the 5 G’s of preparedness, now 6 G’s – Guns, Gold, Gas, Grub, Ground and Girls   ”

Me?  My thoughts?  Heck,  I’m still looking for Astroglide in 55 gallon drums…  (Even if my humor is weak, it proves (at age 64) that I’m still an optimist at heart.)

Speaking of G2

Here’s some family “air time” for you…G2 skydiving video…

This is odd as hell:  Twin sister Allison needs tranks just to fly commercial…go figure!

Around the Ranch: Used Jointer

My last power tool arrived about 4-PM Thursday.  Panama took the truck up to Longview to pick up a used Delta 37-330 6-” wide long bed jointer.  The unit has just be sand-blasted and painted and $200 was an agreeable price.

To be sure, I’d been tempted to get a table-top jointer, rather than a long-bed beheamoth, but the longer the feed (and run out) table, the more accurate the work….and I need all the help I can get.

If I was going to buy one, I’d probably pick the Grizzly G0654 Jointer, 6 x 46-Inch whicyh – by the time you get shipping runs about $525.  So $200 sounded a lot more reasonable.

What it will likely need is a set of blades (these are OK, but blades wear out) and you can get them from Amazon which is hardly surprising.  Seems to me  that Jeff Bezos has a handyman streak, which might account for why I could find a set of replacement blades from Amazon for $29 while a leading parts house wanted $127 for the same thing.

One drawback to the used jointer approach is it will mean buying a jig to set the blades right.  Since I like their tools, it was Rockler’s Magnetic Jointer Jig  and that should get the blades dialed in just right. 

I’m thinking about one other shop accessory: GF BladeX5 57100 Classic Cut & Slash Resistant Gloves Cut Resistant Level 5 EN388 CE Approved, grey, Medium.  They’re not too expensive (for what they do) and if you’re going to be changing dado blades, changing band saw blades…well, there are some things around the shop where preventing slices and cuts on the hands seems like a good thing.

I’m still healing from slicing a finger of sharp sheet metal as I was take out an electrical knock-out on a shop light fixture a week, or so, back.

I’m getting pretty close to finishing up building the “cheapskates dream shop” and already it is great fun using it. Only another week or two…and 90-days until the Texas summer’s worst is done, then I can get into cabinet making.

That ought to give me just time to master Google Sketch-Up and find out where all the woodworking plans are hiding on the net…then we should be good to go.

The Virtual World is a nice place to work, and all, but there’s nothing like making sawdust, or making chips on a lathe.  The magic of turning material – like a sheet of plywood – into a useful cabinet or whatever, never gets old.

It changes how you think, too.  Instead of seeing a sheet of 3/4″ birch plywood, you might begin thinking “I see two sides and than shelves for my new media center there….”

—

The best shopping for tools isd usually Craigslist – and if you don’t see what you want in a week, or two, put in a WTB (Want To Buy) ad.  Just use common sense to avoid buying stolen goods.  Buying a jointer from someone in a one bedroom apartment, for example, might smell of fish…

Our came from a shop with another jointer and more power tools than you can shake a stick at…and we keep the ad and seller info on file for a year.  Just can’t be too careful…

OK, home handy-bastard finger count?  Got 10?  OK, back here Monday, then and we’ll count fingers and have a good laugh about no worthwhile project in a shop happens without bloodshed…

Write when you break even..

George Ure (george at ure dot net)

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Vacations on the Cheap

After our Vacation Economic School report Wednesday, a number of readers suggested that while my analysis of most cost-effective ways to vacation (paying full retail) was pretty good, a number shared ways to really vacation on the cheap.  So, since this is summertime (or will be in two weeks, officially, but everyone starts the “vacation season” at Memorial Day), I thought we could run down a number of ways to “vacation” while penny-pinching.  After all, why work is there’s no carrot out there?  First, however, we’ll look at our scandal sheet and see what spiked the punch bowl on Wall St. and  make a call to our Water Department in our never-ending quest for trends that matter behind the headlines…

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Last week’s report is always here.