" and review the chapters on how humans - equipped with dandy patterns
recognition skills - can actually "make up" patterns that
aren't really there.-
hearing sounds such as buzzing
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a feeling of peace and painlessness
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having an out-of-body experience
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a feeling of traveling through a tunnel
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a feeling of rising into the heavens
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seeing people, often dead relatives
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meeting a spiritual being such as God
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seeing a review of one's life
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feeling a reluctance to return to life
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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Friday February
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Special Update Money For Nothing - Ben's G.19 Not often will I do an update other than the Saturday posting for subscribers where we see how many banks were marched to the wall this week by the FDIC and some other 'not-so-nice' data points.
But, since I've had a fine day rolling out of the last of my financial put options which I'm having a hard time not playing for the bounce into the option expiration on the 19th, along comes the Fed report to put the icing on the cake. After all the commissions and exchange fees my net on all trades since going short was only 33 point something % since 1/12/10, but still, better than a sharp stick.
Which brings me to the Fed G.19 report which you can read here in detail. But the highlights of it are that 1) consumer confidence may be rising, but 2) December's (preliminary) revolving debt was still falling at an annualized rate of 11.7%, although when I compare the Q4 2009 number (866 billion) versus Q4-2008 (957.3 billion) I come up with a YoY decline of only 9.5% but they must be looking at something other than year ago Q4 YoY...who the hell knows.
Obviously (to turn a phrase from the end of the TV show "Manhattan, AZ") "They know better than we do...they're in banking."
Why of frigging course! All that said, stand by next week for a shock & awe rally into expirations at which point Mr. 40% (or Mr. overall 33 point something% since AXP options didn't drop as far as I figured, but no point being greedy...money's off the table) it's Friday night and time to rock & roll...
Approaching 61 that simply means stumbling over to the house, feeding the cats, and waiting for divine inspiration to strike me blind with ideas for hot subscriber content this weekend. Or have a shot of a fine aged tequila and finish reading a book. Or all of the above.
How exciting can it get? Drop by Monday for the return of more sedate commentary as I'm out of the market and chilling while I wait for the next short entry to come along. Way I'm guessing it, the Monday or early next week rally should go higher than my blood pressure...should be spectacular if it happens.
BTW: Despite the improvement in the G.19 for December, the Q4 2009 number is still dropping at an annualized 4.7% (so sayeth The Fed) and I just don't see how that means a recovery. Not by a long shot. Declines in consumer spending mean declines in business and that means more jobs stand to be lost.
Oh, dear me! Aren't they're up. How silly of me to miss my meds. Pour me a double of that tequila?
Web Bot Hit "New Electric" Breakthroughs Arriving We'll get to the Unemployment data in a minute. That's routine stuff and sometimes the nonroutine is much more important. We can finally start to reveal what's happening with the predictive linguistic forecast from www.halfpasthuman.com which has for the past 2-years, or longer, referred to something in modelspace that best translated into "the new electrics."
Confidential sources now tell us that both China and India are about to unveil new electrical devices which will break the grip of the global energy & power cartels with breakthrough technology that bends the rules of physics in new and game-changing ways.
One device, due out from China shortly is described as a "battery charger" which will support a fixed 2 KW load on a continuous basis. Yep - that unit which has an anticipated price point in the $2,000 (USD range/current exchange rates) also features a projected lifespan of 50-years and is a zero emissions device.
Apparently, the new devices use certain rare earth/strategic metals and are the motivation for China putting the brakes on strategic mineral exports recently. This also plays into the reports that China's interest in going to the moon is more than a passing fancy. There may be desired materials there.
The purported existence of a Chinese over-unity device suitable for commercialization may also play into why China "Renews opposition to Iran sanctions" on the one hand, while Iran's leadership is promising February 11th will reveal a strike against 'global arrogance' and we're left wondering if more than opposition to antigovernment demonstrations is in play.
We hear the Chinese technology is not precisely perfect. Seems that due to the physics involved, the unit doesn't scale well; meaning that optimum efficiencies come in the 2 KW region and so larger installations, like homes, would need multiple units if air conditioning is required. More to the point, it works best when fed as a DC output into a large battery bank and yes, the Chinese have been getting large in battery development (which breakthrough US efforts continue in Utah in the quest for ever higher energy densities for storage media which run the gamut from conventional lead-acid to the more exotic zinc/air and the class called 'super-capacitors.'
(I'll skip my personal involvement in battery instrumentation, but I know enough to know that absorbed glass matt batteries (like the Concorde AGM's) are the battery of choice for F-15's while long-life lithium is the choice for high altitude remote video gear....really remote and really mountainous terrain video gear, LOL)
And the technology is not likely to land in the US; at least immediately, since China is planning it's own version of 'power to the people' with goals of developing vehicle conversions and other 'schools' for distributing the technology benefits.
Significantly, we hear that the key IP (intellectual property) was set for patent approval several months back which fits like a glove with the predictive linguistics.
When the announcement comes, we're not looking for the Chinese to sell it as an 'over-unity device' (produces more energy than consumed), but simply they plan to call it a 'battery charger' and thus not offend conventional paradigm adherents who would have a problem acknowledging something out of their immediate understanding.
Our sources tell us that the only issue now is time-to-market since over-unity applications have been claimed in other countries by companies like Lutec Australia and here in the US the efforts of The Orion Project have also been directed toward the fundamental breakthroughs in over-unity engineering.
The other project is described as an Indian-backed project which relies for its precious materials on deposits (at/near - we're not clear from our sources on this) the disputed Kashmir region along the hotly contested India/Pakistan border.
Our sources tell us this machine is different than the Chinese. for one thing, it reportedly is capable of variable load handling. Thus, it will be more adaptable and we hear more scalable in size. rumor has it that certain Swedish officials are holding talks with the Indian company because there are unique power issues in the high latitudes and the Indian project may deliver under more adverse conditions.
According to our sources, the Indian company unit can be scaled to 10 KW within the same box and uses different technology so there's potentially a ton more IP to be developed in the field.
So, as we go into the carefully orchestrated decline in the global financial markets occurs over the balance of the year, we expect new rising stars in the FOREX markets may be the Renminbi and the Rupee.
We're left to speculate whether Venezuela's recent devaluations are based on good intel or the market separating wheat from chaff.
In terms of 'what good the rickety time machine' we figure it doesn't get much better than this and our thanks to the confidential sources who are keeping us up to speed on 'the new electrics'.
Can't Stop Laughing / Crying Department Testing 10,000 Redux We start this morning's adventures in the market with the jobs report just released:
The 'True Life Confessional" about the 2009 corrections to the CES birth/death model came in at only -617,000 jobs.
And, thanks to a fine statistical reorganization, you have to hunting around to find the civilian workforce number (one of those incredible shrinking numbers Washington is so famous for - you know - like the 'peace dvidend' of a few years back?).
When you find it...you'll see that the number of people employed jumped 541,000 jobs in January. I must be a crack head demon because I sure don't see it...but who am I but a nutter in the East Texas Outback?
The corrections to the CES Birth Death Model can be found here... Even better (as in less believable) the U-6 alternative measures of labor underutilization dropped from 17.3% of the workforce last month down 8/10th's of a percent to 16.5% this month.
Yeah, sure, you bet'cha.
When you run into headlines like "Payrolls fall in January, jobless rate at 5-month low" don't stop and ask "If jobs are going away, how can the unemployment rate drop?" Damn it....you're not supposed to understand any of this stuff...isn't that clear?
To Markets, To Markets Stocks could muddle a bit lower this morning based on the futures (oh, and growing wonderment about the jobs number methodology). In the wake of the Thursday decline, Robin Landry sent out an advisory to his colleagues who are professionals in the biz...
So we'll watch the first hours or two into trading. I won't go on the very first market move since there's a reason they call the first hour "the amateur hour".
Meantime, my commodity broker, JB Slear has started up a daily preopen comment and this morning's is "Red lights everywhere..."
Also of Note This being Friday and with many big stories, About the only other two to mention in passing is the powerhouse storm about to sock-it-to the East today and into the weekend.
The other one is the earthquake. The predicted 8.0 and above that was supposed to hit Portland according to one seer/forecaster turned out to be a 6.0 off the northern California coast. With Portland still standing, you get to score this anyway you choose. I await a second forecast and a new prediction. One point is not a trend around here.
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Coping: Buying Gold Yet? In a word: No. But since this is Friday you get the long answer: Reader wanted to find out if we're into a buy zone for gold yet:
I don't give financial advice! But IF we fire up our hugely complex graphics program and take a couple of Kitco charts (that's where I bought my lone gold coin, LOL) we'd see that 1) there's a trend line which we can see in the one month charts which to me (not you!) infers lower to come and also that someone(s) saw yesterday coming and probably made pretty good bucks on the $46 beat-down:
Remember, gold spiked up to $1,212 in December, so I keep my credit card handy and Kitco's phone number in hand for just the moment when I think a bottom is really in. Now? Not in my opinion - but that's because I want to see if the $990 holds, or between now and summer if there might be further beat-downs administered to shake out some of 'those of little faith' which would allow the PTB to add to their positions before the whole economic system hits the skids later this year.
More than 2-cents worth, but since you asked, that's how I see it. Again - THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE! --- Still, the longer-term decline in the dollar seems to be reversing and so a rally to 0.80 vis-à-vis the basket can't be ruled out, especially if the Eurozone is going to have a series of financial IED's going off.
So follow my logic on this. So given that we're around $0.73 this morning, that would infer a run of something near 8 3/4% rally, which means in my vastly simplified way of looking at the economic world that I am expecting:
Of course, this is just a dart thrown early before the CES jobs adjustment got unveiled, but that my present trading plan. The only thing that changes more than my trading plans, however, is Elaine's choice of paint colors for the house and even then, I sometimes run ahead.
Once we get there, i.e. Dow 9,500, then I may go long a few selected stocks (via options) and then once the rally targets are hit, roll over once again onto the short side of stocks. --- Lots of times people ask me about entry points into trades that I make and I seldom answer. Oh, sure, I will occasionally tells Peoplenomics readers about this trade or that but only after I enter and updated again after I exit so no nit-picky regulator can accuse me of profiting from revealing my trades...and that's all goodness so no problem.
But the remarkable thing is while everyone seems to want to know my entry points nobody ever asks my exit points. --- Howard Hill (www.mindonmoney.wordpress.com) and I were talking about this last evening since one of my short-term plays might be to buy 'aty-the-money' call options at the depths of the current decline (today or Monday maybe) on the cheap and then roll out of them in about 7 trading days (or so) going into the February options expiration which comes on my birthday this year.
Howard thinks I'm nuts (not that he's wrong, mind you) and he suggested as an alternative I consider buying one of the "Four Horsemen" (of Bankpocalypse) since there's one which is still priced like an option and about half its book value and his gut is that it could return 20% in fairly short order (6-8 weeks). It's why you oughta read Howard's column. Damn smart fellow and generous to boot.
It was about here that I interrupted his thinking to remind him that I can't envision anything more boring than a 20-25% return in 6-8 weeks.
Howard - having the Big Name School math degree (but he didn't go skulls which is a clue as to which school maybe, LOL) - pointed out that if I'd make one 20% return trade a month, I could end a year's worth of trading up nearly eight to nine times my original stake.
True that, and maybe it's why Howard's house is much larger than mine, but I like adventure, adrenaline, and the riskier plays. Something about all those flashing lights going off on one of the monitors. Gives me an excuse to sit on my butt staring at a screen. Still, I figure if I can make 40% returns in the same period, my year end return would be closer to 56-times my grubstake. Magic of compounding. Either that or the wild-eyed greed of unresolved karmic issues. Or, whatever.... --- All this ambles around to something serious pros do and rank amateurs don't: The pro has a defined entry point for a trade as well as a defined exit point. The amateur asks only for entry points. May I remind you: Divine inspiration when to sell usually comes when the trade is upside down and by then it's a little late.
Soooo...If you plan on making serious money, might I ever-so humbly suggest that you get in the habit of writing down before each trade what your entry and exit points are as well as the "do not exceed levels" along the way?
Ure's Primary Trading Rule:
"He who trades and runs away has cash to trade another day."
Hurts having such discipline, but following it I clicked out of half my put options yesterday when 10 puts purchased for $100 per contract hit $140 per contract Thursday afternoon, and yes, that's a 40% trade entered on 1/12/2010 and exiting 2/4/2010. The other one I closed out was 4 options at a different strike entered 1/12/2010 for $170/option contract and closed yesterday for $240 per contract. 41%.
With Maps of Global Risk A reader told us that the World Economic Forum has a mighty slick "Risk Interconnections Map" online which is useful for figuring out how one world event interacts with another. --- I can't tell for sure but it looks like the map is a 2D isolation off a mapping ap most likely done in the ThinkMap platform. I showed you the p0latform back in December, 2008 (scroll down to VisualThesarus here.)
So yes, while the map looks cool in a static 2D display, it's even cooler when you can pop up the 3D version and spin it, rotating around, up, and under it...Even neater if it has streaming news content and an emotional impact engine on it, but presumably you don't get all the bells and whistles unless you're in the WEF...still, the static display gives you the idea.
Now make each one of the dots a multiple drill-down into the supporting systems (markets, resources, manpower, politics & religious sects, etc...)within each country and see if you can get it on the store shelves at the $59 price point before Christmas...and don't forget the RSS feed with risk ranker, OK?
Nice to see the ThinkMap ap being used...if that's indeed what it is. The fonts and links look right.... I talked to Cliff about rolling the web bot predictive modelspace over into ThinkMap instead of using the IntelliCad LISP interface, and while it would be keen and neato, doesn't gain anything at a practical. Still would have been cool to have link maps tying concepts in and changing over time, but the rickety time machine isn't going to market. --- Speaking of which!
The new RAID 3 X 9 is happily check-checking its heart out so spiders oughta to be venturing forth in a few weeks and we may get out first glimpse of web bot data around March 21st, or so.
--- Send your comments to george@ure.net Shop Till Your Drop Department: Peoplenomics This Week The "Art" of Social Engineering I have only written about Directorate 153's social engineering mission a couple of times previously; once when its existence could be hypothecated in the wake of September 9/11 (Peoplenomics #6, Dec. 1, 2001) and we covered the hypothetical hiring of a new fellow at the Directorate - an economics/applicant named simply Rick in our September 5, 2004 report #150. As you'll recall, we hypothecated that a new head of strategic economic planning for the world's hidden perpetrators of 'peaceful war' had been hired from senior global banking ranks in order to ensure social engineering and orchestration of global banking went smoothly. In today's report we look at how that project has been going or late (hypothetically) and look ahead to future inflection points where terrorism/social distracters may again be desired by the PTB. Let me emphasize again, this is all hypothetical. More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE
Cookie Video The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
Not for Mac's: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Give them time...
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..." ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here.
Thursday February 4, 2010 PTB: Fear the Jobs Number, Steal the 'Net Tomorrow's jobs report should be a masterful work of statistical sleight of hand, if any of the reports going into this are accurate. Take, for example, the report that "824,000 Jobs Will Disappear on Friday" that came out of Bloomberg on Wednesday.
At the root of this is something called the CES Birth/Death Model. It's a forecasting tool used by the Labor Department to estimate the creation of jobs which would otherwise not be counted since the assumption is that small companies and startups don't get properly accounted for.
When you look at the Birth/Death model you can see how the statistical 'confessional' last January took 356,000 jobs out of the previous year's optimism.
A little quick time with a calculator shows that with the exception of the January 2009 reduction of 356,000 jobs, the CES Birth/Death Model alleged that 1,238,000 jobs had been 'created' in 2009.
To expect this huge creation was going on in the private sector seems absurd yet unabashedly, the CES numbers for 2009 claimed (ex-January '09) that 154,000 construction jobs were created in the midst of the housing collapse.
Equally rich: The CES Model would have us believe that 312,000 jobs were creased in leisure and hospitality - no doubt from all those exotic vacations we could all afford in 2009.
Almost as good as: The 187,000 jobs created in the private sector in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities while trucking companies were going BK and the Ports were seeing major declines.
Have a glass of well-fluoridated coffee and look at the price of gold this morning (down) and the odds seem pretty good that the Dow today and tomorrow will have a hard time holding onto this week's gains by week's end when the reality of the jobs picture sinks in.
But don't expect too much reality, too quickly: It wouldn't be good for the sheep to come out and add back the faulty CES estimates because they would push the reported unemployment rate up around 10.7 to 10.8%. Can't have that, now, can we? --- The key number to watch tomorrow will be the civilian workforce number. You see, in order to make December look like things were improving, that number alleged that 661,000 fewer people were in the workforce in December. --- The GOOD NEWS is that when I read the report out of the UK that "Internet surfers caught in a web of depression" suddenly made sense. While the report posited this:
Another answer comes to mind: The internet is a kind of touchstone for reality seekers. Except the reality we find on sites like the BLS/CES Birth/Death Model site isn't exactly happy reading if you have half a brain and can find a calculator.
Notwithstanding: This does lay more and more foundation for licensure of the Internet. You can see the PowersThatBe trying to wrestle the 'free 'net" out of existence as fast as they can, witness the story in the NY Times Wednesday that what we need is a “driver’s licenses” for the Internet to counter online fraud, hackers and espionage, a Microsoft executive suggests."
Next thing that will come is government reviewed content and restrictions on socioeconomic critics. Could that be one reason why we see such a drop-off in linguistic structures for the Internet from late 2011 onward?
The Communications Act of 1934 was the analog in the First Depression. I expect here in the Second Depression that the 'Netstapo' will be forming up any old time now. From the September 1929 market peak to the June 1934 roll-out of the Communications Act which allowed the PowersThatBe to squash dissident broadcasters in the Depression and consolidated social control via the radio networks (and later television) took almost five years.
So all you need to get the timing of the seizure of the Internet right is a calendar and a click over to Yahoo Finance's historical monthly Dow data to find how to count out four year 9-months to when it's all due to hit this time.
Of course, this will all take a little work, since Australia's attempts to stifle the 'Net have resulted - for now - in their government backing off plans to hijack the 'net for the PTB there.
What does it mean? If you're trying to infer what's ahead, a check of last week's Peoplenomics report "The 'Art' of Social Engineering" spells it out clearly. And just this week we see confirmation in the mainstream press that "Intelligence officials 'certain' U.S. will be attacked in the next six months".
Need more evidence? Why sure! "Google to enlist NSA to help it ward off cyber attacks". Expect in time licensing of spiders and off html/ftp activities first, but just watch where it goes... "Police want backdoor to Web users' private data" says a CNET report today.
I can forecast with better than 50-50 odds that when 'terrorist' attack comes (once the reality of Depression 2 starts becoming obvious - when the Dow sinks under 7,000 again BTW) that the perps will be 'found to be using the net' and that will lead to a massive PTB hype campaign promoting net regulation and control. I can hardly wait to see how the 'regulations' will be crafted not so much to limit terrorists from embedding codes in .JPEG's and such, but how the PTB will try to shut down sites which reveal their inner workings and which alert the public to the dangers of runaway government which long ago escaped the grasp of the electorate's control.
And the study that reported the Brits think the net may draw mentally challenged folks? LOL....yeah sure, you bet'cha.
Truth-seeking is now an illness. Gee, that makes analyzing financial markets easier, doesn't it? No need to bother with reality any longer. The world's a sim and we are all but avatars, Citizen.
Morning Numbers Check Market futures were down some earlier following overseas markets. --- The federal debt ceiling is tracking to bust limit by the end of this month...
Productivity Who needs jobs, if productivity can go up fast enough, huh?
Earnvanna: A mythical land from the Olde Testament of the Church of the Almighty Dollar where productivity and profits go up infinitely while employment costs go to zero (see chart above) resulting in a wonderful state of being for the promoters of globalism who search the world spreading the Gospel of Free Trade so long as they get a piece of the labor rate spreads so long as the Swiss, Caymanian, and Turks' banks don't out them.
Jobless Hike I knew the jobless number was going to be up unexpectedly when it wasn't promptly posted on the Labor Department site this morning. Bad news travels slow before the open of markets. Pure coincidental, you understand...
Retail: Mixed Bag The retailers are starting to weigh in...and an AP story headlines "Retailers report modest gains for January" but just what that means is a little murky and we'll have to get more detail. --- Problem is when retailers talk about small gain, are they talking about gains in unit sales which is different than a gain in cash sales especially if we don't back out inflation from year ago numbers...you can hype this six ways to Sunday and still have a defensible position.
Bank Rates The ECB and BoE have left rates unchanged. Obviously, to move anything in the delicate/precarious position of the global financial picture would upset things...
Useless News Here's an assortment of stuff that may have no bearing on your life but which makes the mainstream to keep the distraction pipes full:
"Peter Piper picked a pig of pickled peckers..." leaving biotech researchers to wonder "How many pickled peckers were on the pig that Peter Piper picked?" --- Drop by tomorrow for the biotech adventures of Dick & Jane...
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Coping: Connecting Dots Every now and then - as a writer - there's a chance that something will be ,'skipped over' which the writer thinks is terribly apparent on the face of it, but upon reflection is based on the writer's near certain knowledge that the reader will be able to keep up with dot-connecting at near warp speed. That doesn't often happen, so this morning (*with apologies for not laying out the dots in more obvious fashion in Wednesday's report) I'm going to hand a little more meat on the concept of "Depression-Era Thinking Visible, which was the top story/most important concept change I noticed on Wednesday morning.
To make this easy, I'm going to actually throw down a whole bunch of dots for you and lead you through the connections to avoid confusion.
Dot #1 The January 24 issue of Peoplenomics made it perfectly clear what my expectations are for the present period forward several years...as we slide to the bottom of the Second Depression.
Since that report, although we've seen a couple of rally attempts, the market hasn't gone much of anywhere and the put options I bought have been up as much as 27% although in fairness, they're presently up less than 10%. Nevertheless (and this is not trading advice so don't whine at me later, you're a grown up and your money is yours to deploy as you will), it seems to me that the majority of the bounce off the March 2009 lows has a better than even chance of being IT and a longer deeper decline lays ahead.
Dot #2 Some very good people I know...I mean extremely bright, talented, innovative folks in the money field have lost their jobs. One writes the most savory www.mindonmoney.wordpress.com and the other, Trader Jim Goulding got pink-slipped this week up in bond fields of Chicago.
The thing about Trader Jim's being cut loose that bothers me is that I've told you many times about his excellent free ebook "Winter is Coming". He's an excellent trader and trading coach, yet he reports that when it comes to hiring nowadays up in Chicagoland Bond Trading World, the only folks in high demand are "quants" - quantitative analysts - who might be able to squeeze fractions of pennies on massive volume, but strategic trading? Forgitaboutit. Not in vogue.
Goulding's resume is on line here if you know anyone who needs a group of traders managed or some serious risk management handled.
My observation (and it may be wrong) based on dozens of similar dots over the past year or two is that there is a fundamental change in how investing is handled in play.
We saw it coming along slowly at first as some of the major stats like M3 was "disappeared" by the Fed. True, it's been reincarnated by Trader Bart over at Now and Futures, but don't go looking there before you've finished breakfast: The annualized change rate for M3 is now running about 4% negative on an annualized basis.
Do I have to scream this at you? OK, then...
"DEFLATION IS OUT THERE!!!"
Which is why I have been telling anyone who will listen that my personal strategy (nut not advice) is to balance your risks so as to be impervious to a high rate of inflation or a high rate of deflation.
Which is why some money on property which can produce a little bit of income, some money in US Treasuries (as long as government is intact, they should have some return) and some precious metals to balance off the risk that government will have to resort to hyper-inflation in a year (or three) to create enough jobs to propel us out of the mess we're sinking into.
A reader looked at yesterday's report and sent in a note which needs clarification:
Want to be clear here: I'm not critical of the Obama administration's 'you don't go to Vegas'...I'm simply saying that we're seeing a process - one that Nicholas Kondratieff thought was unavoidable: At some point the return to core values (thrift & savings) collide with the desires of the bankster class and one faction of the PTB that wants to follow the myth of prodigious and persistent growth and deny the reality of economic cyclicity which the return to Depression Era "Thinking brings.
This is neither good nor bad. It just is.
Jim Goulding's work in "Winter is Coming" suggests the bottom of the present 'recession turned Depression' won't be along until sometime around 2014. I'm not trying to be critical of the Obama administration on economic policy (that'd be too easy). Instead, I'm trying to chronicle as we go how the rhyme with the first depression is laying out in this one and note that in Depression 1.0 government officials tried to guide financial behavior and it could be argued that their policy responses just made things worse.
The reality - best I can see it for all the media fog - is that this administration knows that the only way to kick-start the economy is with a whole lot of easy money but they lack the political capital to do what's necessary and with headlines about how marginal democrats are starting to distance themselves in campaigns this year, and folks like Nouriel Roubini using terms like "political capital" it's evident to me that we're now into the acceleration to the downside of Depression 2.
Whether people want to get straight and come to terms with that reality is another matter. My main point was that pushing thrift now from the highest policy levels amounts to stepping on the gas in a car that's just gone over a cliff. May not change the outcome, but it draws attention to who took over as driver once the car was clear of the cliff's rim which happened in Bushtober of 2008.
No, UrbanSurvival is not a place of "now-now-isms" that got us into this mess.. It's about watching the economy, driven off cliff, estimating its trajectory, figuring out an approximate landing zone, and then trying to figure out in advance how to crawl out of the wreckage.
No hurry, though. If Jim Goulding's right, Robin Landry's work is right, my consigliore's work is right, and if my own well documented writings here are anywhere near right, we'll be in decline for a couple of more years. Or has the reality of the 'jobless recovery' somehow escaped you, or hasn't it sunk in yet?
WuJo: Code? A couple of days back (or was it last week?) I had a link to an airport runway which when viewed with Google Earth seemed to be packed with vehicles. But a reader who looked at the strange places were there were no vehicles inferred something else:
Lacking our ability to make scalar communications system, are we trying to communicate something to off-worlders by laying our vehicles on a closed airport runway in punch card fashion? Makes a helluva plot for something..
Bombing Amchitka Ever wonder why the US conducted nuclear tests in the Aleutians? Why the Nannikin test was done? Interesting story from a reader:
Best laid plans of mice and men....
Wednesday February 3, 2010 Depression-Era Thinking Visible There's a fair bit of controversy going on about "President Obama again criticizes trips to Las Vegas" which (no surprise) is making gigantic headlines in where? Las Vegas, of course.
What got Obama in trouble with Vegasites and Chamberites was saying that when times are tough "You don't going buying a boat when you can barely pay your mortgages. You don't blow a bunch of cash on Vegas when you're trying to save for college." Hmmm...common sense, there... --- What escapes the discussion is a fundamental problem of economics: IF people really DO cut back on their spending, it actually LENGTHENS the amount of time taken to recover. Sometimes best to shut up.
What's going on now, however, is the whole nation is tipping toward the reciprocal of virtuosity... This as we just passed a tipping point (invisible to most) where people start becoming thoughtful about their spending if not outright afraid. Velocity crashes, manufacturing backs up, pricing power evaporates and along comes deflation. Oops!
While the president
thinks he's making economic sense (thrift and savings) by
telling people to actually save for a rainy day, he may
want to consider that he's actually keeping employment low in
the hospitality industry and so forth. That means pressure
on airlines, car rental outfits (which impact Detroit, right?)
and so forth. Economies are almost never static. A sector that's not expanding is shrinking and with the last Fed G.19 report showing credit card spending dropping at nearly 20% per year, that's bound to have continued impacts on the service sector and so forth.
Timing Volker's Ascension About the safest bet I can think of in politics now is that someone will have to be offered to the increasingly angry public as a sort of 'human sacrifice' to appease voters. A number of candidates for this political sacrifice come to mind (Geithner, Summers, et al) and the replacement actor who is making a lot of headlines right now might be someone like Paul Volker.
Speaking of which, you saw where he is taking a firm stand against banks doing too much speculating that doesn't benefit investment clients?
I don't look for Volker to make his move yet...more likely, he'll wait till the tide of economic history has started to swing a little more clearly. Although he gets a lot of credit for "Whip Inflation Now" back when, the reality is that a lot of economic geniuses are so ordained simply for being in the right place at the right time.
Just like Summers & Geithner, et al, are in the right place at about precisely the wrong time and we collapse toward the bottom of D2.
Next Round of Layoffs My consigliore called yesterday and explained how the next round of layoffs - which has the potential to be huge - will be in state and local governments. All a matter of falling property values and with it will come declines in tax revenues.
Unlike Uncle, of course, where "Largest-over federal payrool to hit 2.15 million" is about to happen. They have the printing press which helps. --- California is out of the limelight (for the past few weeks) but "As feds stiff state, budget crisis deepens" warns a Dan Walters piece in the Fresno Bee.
And in Florida where the governor's budget assumptions are being roasted.
And in Nevada where 300 state workers are likely to get pink slipped...
And in....well, you got the idea, huh? This is what double-dips on the slippery-slip come from - and why we'll be seeing some kind of human sacrifices offered up by Washington this year. Sacrificial scapegoating we'd called it back in the newsroom days. Some things never change.
Change? Did someone say "Change"?
ADP job report says companies cut fewer than their forecast 22,000 jobs in January. no, there's no growth yet, so I wouldn't be holding a block party over this. Maybe I will get my reversal to the downside today which will get wave 5 to the downside rolling. --- ISM non-manufacturing number comes later today along with the energy stocks report if my handy-dandy crib notes are correct.
Pays to Be A Bankster "Outrageous!" Yes, but those AIG super-compensation bonuses are 'legal' says a federal pay czar. --- OK, fine. How much has all the genius and posturing cost when a $500/hour employment comp lawyer would have given the same answer in what, 2-hours of staff time?
Repeat after me: "Show time!"
Truth Leak Meantime, Moody's figures that bad bank debt is not declining - Nope! Likely to rise for another year according to a Telegraph report... Say, is that an echo I hear? Listen closely....
Show time! Show time! Show time....
Sunspot Jitters OK, OK, relax. People have been sending me emails all morning about the headline that "Solar storms threaten Olympics blackout" at the London 2012 games.
Pardon me while I just chuckle at this. First of all, the current sunspot check over at www.spaceweather.com shows what? One lousy sunspot.
Now, what does this mean? Simply that Solar Cycle 24 is way slow getting started. I mean way slow. Slower than Obama 'change' slow. Slower than 'transparency'. Slower than 'balanced budget' slow...(I could go on, but you get the idea, right?)
Here's the deal. Solar cycles are 11.5 years or so in length (and yes, they correspond to the 11-11.5 year economic cycle which can be observed in California real estate and Juglar's work (which was 8.5-11 if I remember right). (Why these don't get tied to sunspots is beyond me.....)
So, I assume you've read the papers which are widely available that the peak of solar flare risk is on what? The backside of the cycle which puts the risk of a major flare predominately 5.5 years into a cycle and more likely around 6.5 years into a cycle.
Which means what? Well, seeing as the bottom of Cycle 23/24 is still being formed and looks to be drawing out much longer than anyone expected, I'm not putting on the tinfoil hat and installing Schottky diodes on my beard trimmer until mid...oh...what's '09 +5? 2014?
And the longer the bottom takes, the more Mr. Ure will be able to take advantage of falling diode prices. Sheesh! "The sky is falling, the sky is falling! And I must find a surge protector!"
Apparently, sheep do poorly at astronomy and physics.
Who's Afraid of Virginia Snow? A panicky reader is worried about the possible 3-4 feet of snow around Charlottesville, Virginia expected later this week:
While suggesting local residents just 'chill', we will go so far as to grant a gold star for headline writing to The Hook which headlines "Snowmageddon: Friday in Charlottesville..." I like it - a lot...
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Coping: With Clusters of Strangeness Problems down at the WuJo keeping up with all the high strangeness, not the least of which were all the orb pictures people sent me.
Which gets me to the first point of this morning's update: While Mr. Esoteric is in the high powered aquisition of new ways to behold Universe at all times - which implies an open mind - he is always balanced by Mr. Science who says "Open mind, yes, but not so open as to have your brains fall out..."
One set of 'orb' pictures I reviewed was such an obvious set of doctored pics that I wondered how anyone could fall for them being as purported. But, to be sure, there were some that seemed straight-ahead "Yup, that could be one..." but even these are not conclusive in any sense since I'm not actually buying into 'orbs' until I see some face-to-face, or at least take the pictures myself with known camera gear under known conditions and tear it apart with the latest from Corel and Adobe (Photo-Paint and Photoshop) which I keep on hot standby for events like people telling me that this picture is this, or that picture is some space goat entail or whatever.
Remember: Open Mind, Skeptical Always. Remember the state motto of Missouri. (A big-ass hint if you need it by scrolling down a ways here...) --- Speaking of which, I have to stop mentioning Missouri. In one of may manic marketing moments I sent the State a note suggesting an updated motto more friendly to building tourism dollars. I suggested what?
Never heard back from them.
If you're not rolling on the floor (or yelping from spilling coffee) you have absolutely no sense of humor. Read it aloud a few times and see if the lights come on, or if anyone is home upstairs. --- A little more intriguing, while I run around snapping flash pictures all over the ranch at night (much to the consternation of the goats who are sure (again) that I've 'lost it', is the report of high strange out of Oztralia. Folks on the net there have been writing up all kinds of copy (and snapping screen captures) of supposed 'radar anomalies'' lately.
Our Ozstralia regional WuWu correspondent sends this...
We've got a couple of candidates for 'source of high strangeness' on the radar (pun intended, sorry). One is this persistent rumor on the 'net that there will be a major earthquake around 11 AM this morning (or is it tomorrow?) on the US west coast somewhere, which will be an 8.0 or some-such.
While we've been terrifically accurate with our own earthquake predictions based on the rickety time machine (example: The 2008 China quake call within a three days) but there doesn't seem to be much threat of "Big Ones" until after July 7 by that metric.
On the other hand, if we indeed do get something north of say a 6.5 today or tomorrow around 11 AM, then the source of this particular quake prediction will go up several notches in credibility.
Meantime, the quake is ,supposedly to be nearest to Portland, Oregon. The hell of it is, that when made, such predictions (Feb 3 instead of Feb. 6) gain lots of traction on the net because it sometimes seems people don't have enough to worry about. Like tax hikes, the national debt, multiple wars, pink slips flying all over and the soaring cost of groceries wasn't enough.
Either that, or there has been so much mental energy put into this particular meme that something relatively routine (6.0 or under) would be declared "IT" and the effects of prayer will be credited with making it smaller than the 8.0+ which has been so widely bandied about.
Not to put down prayer - or any other way of manipulating the template of The Field in any way, shape, or form, but seems to me that if it's a smallish quake that could just have easily been created by pushing the templates of The Field/kalapas around, know what I mean?
if not5, run over
to Amazon and pick up a copy of "How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
On the other hand, an 8.0 felt anywhere in Oregon today is a statistical improbability and that would impress me greatly. However, be advises, I don't impress easily and under a 6.0? Forgitaboutit.
Cheap Screens I think I've mentioned that one of the joys of coming out to my office in the morning, sitting down with a 24 ounces of coffee and writing up this running commentary on money, Universe, and the missteps of the great Dance Instructor is that I have multiple monitors on my computer.
Four to be exact.
So I can watch a market ticker on the left screen, have a 64-bit browser open on the right side of #2/middle, FrontPage on the left side of #2, Outlook and weather/time/date gadgets on #3 and network monitors, intrusion attempts and so forth on #4. A 32-bit version of Internet exploder is on #1 in case I want to see something in Flash whichj seems not to work on 64-bit exploder.
Reason for laying this out for you is to explain that by simply plugging in an additional screen (if you have a spare video out, as on a laptop) you can utilize the extended desktop feature of Windows. So you can have material on one screen, and should you wish, just drag it to the other. Dandy for writing reports while looking at a spreadsheet, marketing plan, or running SQL queries (little early for that, though) on the other screed while your word processing hums along on t'other.
Why mention it again this morning? Because as part of rampant deflation, the price of LCD monitors is collapsing. I have three matched 24" Sceptre's that came in at $160 each. And I got an email this morning that CompUSA has $99 18.5" monitors on sale. TigerDirect's overstock page features some 22" monitors (refurbs) for $119.97.
Ever since I got hooked on multiple screen computing back in 2001, or so, I would never live any other way. It makes work fly past and it's just a lot more efficient way of operating.
There is one drawback...and only one: When people came into my office I would have to peer around a pile of monitors to see them. A simple rearranging of furniture ended that LCD-lined foxhole appearance.
Even visiting Panama Bates has two monitors now, the regular one on his laptop and an extended monitor above it. Works like a charm.
Mr. Ure's Birthday In light of the horrible condition of the economy, I've decided to recommend only CraigsList items for you to send me for my birthday this year. Here's an ideal one. (See the pix...nice ride, fo sho)
Power From the People Say, yesterday I was moaning about my high electric bill and a reader wondered if I was selling anything to the local power company off our solar system. Nope. Consuming that, too.
Nevertheless, the reader makes a dandy point in that IF I had an amount of power to sell back compared to what I consumed, the local utility would still get the upper hand since they charge all kinds of things that residential solar types don't charge them.
Think about it: The local utility charges a "power correction factor" so on a seasonal basis they charge more per KWhr because of their higher costs, and then there's all kinds of taxes, too.
"You oughta be charging them taxes back..." suggests our egalitarian reader.
Fine point, that...
One Second Thought ...send the money to your local food bank. "Hunger in America jumps to 'unprecedented' 46 percent." --- Wonder if there has been a corresponding downturn in the weight-loss industry?
Including the ones of this page here...
Tuesday February 2, 2010 Turn-Around Tuesday? The Monday rally was pretty much predictable in the markets. The happy-talk worked (look surprised, ok?) and the Dow tacked on 118 points to the upside Monday, right on plan.
The futures are up in anticipation of the Housing report, but looking ahead, the rally may be one to fade since once the housing number is in, what's left for an encore? Car and truck sales today may offer hints. If all goes according to schedule, we'll turn down today or tomorro3w and then with a Friday decline, we'll be set to rally again next Monday. Like things ever work out so neatly.
Meantime there are a few folks who see the problems of this Depression as analogs to the first one.
Robin Landry's watching to see if this is a wave 2 up (which would be clear somewhere north of 10,260) or whether it's a wave 4...I'll let you know tomorrow if this gets resolved on the technical side in today's trading.
Sweet Hershey earnings are out - and impressive.
Always liked food stocks and utilities during depressions. Not a recommendation to buy anything, but certainly something to think about.
More than Poppies You see where the geological reserves of Afghanistan are now valued in excess of a trillion dollars? Oil, minerals and drugs - what's not to fight for?
Spies Versus Spies You saw where a supposed CIA black-ops crew was popped in what was first painted as a burglary of senator Mary Landrieu's office? Getting hard to tell who's on what side, anymore,; isn't it?
Better Late Than....Department Oh, claims a critic of the UK's involvement in the Iraq War that the "UK cabinet 'misled' over Iraq war".
You mean the Niger uranium docs were fakes? You mean Schwarzkopf wanting to go all the way to Baghdad the first time made sense? Well, golly...how about that.
Still, can't expect a nation of soapbox standers to wake up all at once.
We haven't.
As the Climate Turns I see where the British press is still rooting out Climategate under headlines like "Strange case of moving weather posts and a scientist under siege". See also how "Leaked climate change emails - scientist 'hid' data flaws..."
Had Our Phil of Winter Not really - seems Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow yesterday and you know what than means in Gobbler's Knob, right? (Go rent "Groundhog Day" if you're not keeping up...
Here's the scoop: I think Homeland Security ought to investigate this groundhog fellow as a terrorist. Why, already there's talk about how "Heavy rain in Miami forces changes in Super Bowl plans."
My theory - and I'm sticking with this - is that the Pennsylvania rat is wreaking terror on football fans. All in favor of changing from pigskin to groundhog skin raise your hands! Hasn't someone seen this rat in a Steelers' jersey?
Mooned OK, ignore the radiation problem of the Van Allen Belt just for a minute and go read the story about how "Politicians fight to keep America's moon mission alive..." Oh, and as long as you're going there, look carefully at the picture of the spacecraft over the moon - and tell me where the light source is? There should only be one - and the shadows don't match where the light source is according to the earth in background...with me on this?
"OK, so what's really going on George?"
First, the Van Allen radiation issue raised by anti-moonists, doesn't make sense. A trip through the Van Allen Belt in a spacecraft over a day's time is no big deal since the annual exposure is 2,500 rem which pencils to 6.8 rem for a whole day and that's a no real impact dose.
Hate to ruin a good conspiracy theory with a pencil. On the other hand, the picture of the spacecraft over the moon with earth in background doesn't look right because I can place the Sun (which is far enough away to be essentially a single vanishing point) to make the shadows you see...so at least the conspiracy theory door is still open a few inches.
Best guess? The Black Ops budgets come funneled in part through NASA and the PTB of that faction don't want their money cut off.
Just a guess, but worth keeping in mind to see how events hang. You know the drill: Come up with preposterous theory, watch events, if they are consistent with preposterous theory, then keep preposterous theory until disproven.
Naked Power Department To scan, or not to scan...that is the question. Well, maybe not quite. Plans are afoot to keep people who refuse full-body scans from flying at all. Your body or your flight, huh?
Healthscare Data With the head of Newfoundland/Labrador coming to the US for heart surgery, we might want to ask "If national healthcare is soooo bloody good in Canada, why's this guy coming here?"
Like we often say, "What's good for the goose is good for the Newfies..."
Biting the Hand That... Here's a fine example of humans working together: "Haiti earthquake: voodoo high priest claims aid monopolised by Christians."
And this is an issue because...help me here?
Can We Pass Math? "Coast-to-coast double-digit college tuition hikes" are spiking up all over the place, notices MSNBC. --- Several reasons for this: Lots of anxious students who think that a higher education will ensure them a job. Nope.
Then we have congress which thinks money sp3ent on higher ed will come back to bolster the economy. Guess again...or Sorry Charley.
Flu2 4 U You are, I trust, watching North Carolina where the Flu2 is being hatched out in what's called the "Duke death cluster'?
The predictive linguistics may be somewhat off in that we expected the release of Flu2-2screwU to be released at the Winter Olympics, but we'd consider it a fit/fill if it were to pop contemporaneous to the Olympics...there is, after all, no book on this crap.
So, stand by for big Flu2 by Feb. 12. Meantime, stories like "Swine flu count plagued by flawed data" are just probably softening us up for Flu2.
My, ain't social engineering fun? I mean, wouldn't it be if it were real, huh?
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Coping: With WuJo Tuesday The WuJo is our little mental arts dojo where the School of Economic/Objective Reality meets on the mat of combat with the School of Esoteric Reality and we all get to practice 'flipping out' together. We begin with a few gentle tosses of concept, advance to the intermediate "What If's?" and from there it's only a hop, skip, and a jump into full-blown mental combat with the 'in our face' unexplainable.
Our first match-up in this morning's exhibition involves (as the challenger) a new report on "orbs" which will be matched with the reigning 'reductionist/science[olde] approach.
Shall we strike the gong and get it on?
Hmmm...our reductionist/science[olde] representative just ran out of the WuJo screaming this can't be so.... with many apologies I'll have to stand in.
Here at the WuJo we keep a decent camera around to take pictures of students flipping out...so we've put it on the Master List of Sh^t ToDo to snap some pix around the ranch at various times of night. We've seen enough from The Orb Society videos on YouTube (like this one) to get us to wondering "What is going on here?"
There's [highly circumstantial] evidence that there is something out of the ordinary going on and it has been ascending very slowly for perhaps 30-years. An increase in crop circles, an increase personal vivid/lucid/prophetic dreams, the odd UFO sighting, and so forth that I'm inclined to put some technology on task to see if there's anything to be seen.
While 'science' would argue that 'orbs' are nothing more than camera artifacts (and yeah, I understand lens apparitions - no problem - there are enough orb reports that I've started to spec out the tools I'll be using:
The fun part of the WuJo is that we can afford to walk into our personal research with no expectations one way, or the other. You're aware, of course, that under quantum physics, observer expectation states can have a huge impact on what the experiment returns as a result, so an unimpeded mind open to a vast spectrum of possible 'right answers' should get good results.
More than anything, what strikes me about this particular orb report is the 'faces' aspect of it. What IF there really was a collision between two universes eons ago? What IF the events of 2012 (2011?) are not the horrific meltdown of the economy or money-crazed countries lobbing nukes about, but something vastly more subtle and yet meeting all criteria?
For example, what IF when people die, they really go to remnants of that 'other universe' and the energy that some describe as 'soul' simply transcend to a different plane of existence with a different set of rules of everything: physics, conduct, direct manipulation of reality....you know - the Big Stuff?
Energy - we are all taught - can neither be created nor destroyed. It can, however be transformed. The speed of an airplane can be converted into altitude, electricity can be converted into heat, cold, and work. And so forth.
Even Snopes.com captures the ultimate problem of WuJo students by labeling as TRUE a report that "A physician once placed dying patients upon a scale in order to measure the weight of the human soul."
Looking up the alleged measurer of soul weights, Wikipedia describes Dr. Duncan McDougall's work in Haverhill, Massachusetts this way:
Fast forward from 1907 to my new directoring days of 1977. It was about in here that I had a chance to interview Dr. Raymond Moody who had just written a great book called "Life After Life" in which he interviewed people who had just experienced death for a short time.
As you may be aware, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of people walking about who claim to have encountered the "Other Side" of life thanks to first-rate advances in CPR and programs like the ground-breaking Medic One program in Seattle.
The highlight of Moody's research into Life After Life was listing the nine most frequently reported commonalities of the death or Near Death Experience (and return): What impressed Moody (and other researchers since) is that when people come back from NDE's they often make major changes in the conduct of their lives.
While many of the reductionist/science[olde] school argue that the commonalities of NDE's are readily explained by the brain's apparent production of demethlytryptamine (DMT) when oxygen-deprived (as in what happens at death) [pharmacological data here].
"Aha! Caught you!" argue the Reductionists. They also go on to do deep exploration of hallucinogens are point out that like any psychedelic experience, the religious expression of heaven & hell may be nothing more than an ancient way of describing "good trip/bad tip" while DMT'ed out.
Except for one itsy-bitsy problem: Researchers (after Moody, et al) began placing symbols on cards which were placed on top of cabinets and other places where they would not be visible to anyone in a trauma surgery, and wouldn't you know it? Some of the people who encountered NDE's in these rooms came back to report they could read the symbols, words, or numbers on these cards at a higher than 'chance' rate.
So now we have a little problem...and it really gets to the heart of why the PowersThatBe have gone to such extraordinary efforts in 'civilized countries' to outlaw, ban, prohibit, suppress drugs that can either enhance DMT production or act in similar ways; e.g. tearing down the normal walls of perception limits which in effect jail humans to a manageable-sized mindscape where jailers of every stripe (pseudo-religious to political to economic) keep everyone on the various treadmills.
We've had second-hand reports of orbs being seen in this part of East Texas and there are enough reports of "giants" and "sasquatch-like" creatures hereabouts that the Mound Prairie Creek area rated a mention (as I recall) in one of Steve Quayle's books, "Genesis 6: Giants." --- While it's hard to study
something as complicated as this, especially when there have
been so many efforts to keep regular humans from exploring the
larger reality over the centuries, it's a dandy field on inquiry
if one can keep an objective non-partisan approach going.
Starting back a ways in history - long before contemporary
religions - might be one way to begin, in which case the
homework from the WuJo is Supernatural: Meetings with the Ancient Teachers of Mankind --- Sidebar: I just ordered
his look at 2012, too. It's a DVD called "2012: Science Or Superstition --- So where does this little exposition on orbs really go? Let's try this one for size:
Could we hypothesize what would fit the following?
Perhaps. Maybe 'souls' or recently departed humans tend to 'school up' almost in fish-like fashion and create globs of energies....
"Mighty absurd of you, George, for this hour of the morning..."
Well, yes, and no. Remember the Irish stories of Banshees? A gathering of one (or more) supernaturals to attend a moment of death.
What's more, the 'riding away with(in) fits at a very deep archetype level. A couple of examples of the 'going away of souls' include the 1958 Swedish film "The Phantom Carriage" and the "death carriage comes for Darby" in the 1959 Disney flick "Darby OGill & the Little People".
Personally, because of my family history, I find it interesting that the archetype-level expression hit so heavily around the 'death carriage' in the 19589-1960 era.
You see the "death carriage" meme immediately preceded the "anti-death carriages" that began to appear shortly after (only a year or two) as various fire departments such as Seattle's, massively expanded fire department-rendered aid programs such that by 1964, or so, the first real 'aid units' were being prototypes by Todd's Shipyards. and by the early 1970's the real modern-day 'anti-death carriages" - the Medic One type units - were starting to roll.
Fun how archetype expressions work out when you start looking for them, huh?
In tis role, lord Yama (to quote from Wikipedia here) does the 'life review' part and decides who gets sent to Naraka (n the Hindu version):
What continues to fascinate me, down here at the WuJo when work doesn't interfere, is how over historic periods of time, the same generalized concepts get periodically hijacked by mere humans who seem bent on distorting the way Universe really operates, or manipulating it for their own ends.
A short analysis of history suggests this is done by emphasizing minute differences in The Big Story and enticing a band of 'truth believers' to wage battle to death with those who disagree with their minutia and differentiations.
Yet there's a fair bit of evidence, when one takes the time to go looking, that suggests a universal structure that has been around longer than any of our contemporary religions yet shares common elements with today's 'modern' sects. Of course, instead of celebrating the commonalities, the divide and conquer comes along and, well, we get headlines about those efforts all the time.
Except your religion I'm sure, which is absolutely right. --- So to bottom line things: Are orbs worthy of study? Yup.
Don't know as I will be
able to catch any, let alone get them to resolve into something
as neat as a recognizable face.
But the key thing is to look at the whole spectrum of data including even further-out items like "electronic voice phenomena" and try to figure out the underlying structure leaking through.
Universe throws out a lot of bread crumbs, which when followed lead to the WuJo, whether we want to, or not. Life's still only X days long and preparing a graceful exit seems a wise thing to do. Gotta build that after life case...which seems the right thing to do ...even without Yama blustering about.
Have we got a surprise for Yama.
---
Power to the People Say, here's a neat goody: Plans for a fridge that uses just 0.1 KWhr/day.
I've got all kinds of plans for energy improvements arounds here...not the least of which is putting a 3-inch thick second skin of styro on our freezer. Decent payback time and anything to cut costs, eh? Our electric bill this past month was north of $300 for the first time ever...and thats with my solar rig...
Monday February 1, 2010 Monday Rally, Again? Strange as it seems, there's actually be talk in the market's preopen that we may have a little rally. But I don't expect it to be a BIG rally. There is simply too much bad news out there unless the 'wall of worry' that markets love to climb include the Himalayas.
The White House is about to unveil a really bad budget outlook. The budget folks aren't even pretending to make a go of balancing the budget as they have, from time to time, done in the past. That's how far gone things are. A $1.6 trillion deficit is what's planned. And how accurate have past federal budgets been? Let's not go there....
But seriously, let's do get out the calculator: A nearly $4-trillion budget on a shrinking $12-trillion GDP (ex wars, etc) means about 25% of everything is going to pay for federal government. And that's before local property taxes. I'd call my congressman and complain, but fat lotta good that will do: I'm not a corporation or a bank.
Anyone besides me want to push for a 25% cap on all taxes combined? --- While financial calamity swirls around Greece, we see how the Swiss have put out the word that UBS (United Bank of Switzerland) could face collapse if tax talks with the US don't go well.
Even the pope is getting into the economic picture calling on officials to 'stem job losses' but I have no idea how that will change anything.
Yes, Credit Unions Fail, Too Someone asked me if they should put their money in a credit union because they don't seem to make failure headlines like the banks. Well, if you want to look at a list of failed credit unions, start here. But, yes, it seems like a better bet than banks, especially since FDIC marched six more banks to the wall after the Friday close bringing us to 152 failed branches for the year and 80 last week alone.
Still, safer than a mattress in either event, depending on how many guards you have posted around the bed.
Bread and Circuses Department While more than 40 people were killed by a female suicide bomber in Iraq, the bulk of the MainStreamMedia today seems intent of feeding non-news to the non-thinking.
Stories about Grammy and Directors Guild awards just don't seem like worth bothering with. Maybe I've just a nutjob since it seems like the modern media equivalent to "It sells papers!"
Then there's the BBC coverage of this biggie: "Prince Harry thrown from polo pony in Barbados." Part of me says "Hope he didn't get hurt..." while the cynical voice screams "If he's going to be doing leading some day, how come he's not in jolly-olde working on housing, employment and other kinds of problems faced by regular Brits?"
Then again, I'm not running a conventional news operation where revenue is tied to audience size or funded by the government, huh?
Distractions, Distractions... Still Bread & Circuses keep people looking at 'beautify people' instead of watching the bottom line...and I guess that's the point of NWOwned media, Especially when things like Personal Income get rolled out super early today:
Personal savings of 4.8% I must be hanging with economic the economic low-life. NO ONE I know has saved anything near 4.8%. How gullible do does government think we are? As yourself "Do YOU know anyone who saved 5% of their income in December - month of Christmas - for crying out loud - this horse crap! Where's my blood pressure meds? OK, OK, chill down. Maybe presents are considered savings now...you know, like ground round is considered the functional equivalent of 'round steak' by the hedonics crowd... What's the old SF saying? Oh yeah: "Well f*** me to tears..." Savings going up? Yeah...like you don't have a house payment? Say, you don't know any good crack dealers, do you? Maybe that would help... --- This being the first week of a new month, we are set to get slammed with all kinds of data (that's the nice word, the four-letter word beginning with 'sh' also could be used) which help conventional 'rear-view economists' make predictions about whats ahead by looking at their behinds if'n you follow.
Construction spending will be out this morning, the ISM purchasing report, too and pending home sales. Tomorrow we find out if either truck or car was sold last month. Wednesday ADP and Challenger job numbers (which I find more credible) and Thursday factory orders and productivity roll in. All leading up to the 800 pound guerilla: The jobs report/unemployment rate Friday morning.
I threw a dart and it landed on 10.1%. Not that it's a real figure reflecting real jobs. I got it by figuring out how absurdly low an unemployment level could be and still be swallowed by complete idiots of which we seem to have an excess. Even after backing out presidential czars, lawmakers and supreme court justices.
The real jobless number is north of 20% and yes, this is the Second Depression, but until your home is gone, denial and staying on the treadmill is the only thing to do. Sucks, but that's the kinda card game this is. As in House of Cards.
Bank Sues Customer Here's a kind of upside down cake: A bank is suing a customer so the bank (which was hacked a while back) won't have to make good on the customer's money... Yeah, Kafka's world is here.
Quakes? No Worries The Daily Missoulian up in Montana is taking the hype about a possible pending Yellowstone eruption in stride with their headline "More than 1,200 tiny quakes hit Yellowstone Park, but jitters are few." When they put the story up as a main item on their front page, then worry. Till then, just chalking it up to WuJo buzz and worry-wart sites than get traffic from fanning the flames of panic. --- Several readers have asked me to also comment on the "Big earthquake predicted February 3rd for the West Coast." Yeah, sure, you bet'cha. Let's talk about that one on the morning of the fourth, shall we?
Peoplenomics Subscriber Note In the wake of Directorate 153 discussions this weekend, pay attention to how the Iran War is being maneuvered back into position to be a social engineering scapegoat should the markets penetrate Dow 9,500 on the downside.
Nicely orchestrated too as we see (besides Iran taking the bait), the British press reporting "US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles" and the "Pentagon is expanding missile defenses..."
Remember, we don't specifically have to see flu's return or terrorism in the US to be manipulated this spring.
See also: "China, Iran Prompt U.S. Air-Sea Battle Plan in Strategy Review"
Podcast Edition Can be found here. After 8:30 AM or so... --- snip and save section ---
Coping: With the NWO Peoplenomics, our weekly premium content service, focused this weekend on the "art" of social engineering and how the world's population is little more than clay in the hands of masters of money-molding. And what pops up in my email first thing but an email from a subscriber in the Philippines:
While moving to a local bank may be a good idea, the real point of action is to find as many ways as possible to opt out of the present paper money game, near as I can figure. The NWO is desperately looking for non-paper and on this, I hope you saw the article in the Canadian Free Press under the title "Carbon Currency: A New Beginning for Technocracy?"
The coming of the New World Order to power is not surprising, and it may be unstoppable. The reason is that it's a multiple-front assault on what was once the autonomy of the USA and other 'strong' countries.
What has happened in dreadfully slow-motion over the past 50-years is that a combination of excessive national debt, outsourcing of jobs to developing countries, and the Big Lies of unfettered capitalism have brought us to the verge of the unthinkable:" The deconstruction and absorption of these United States into a global government we didn't elect. That's the plan, near as I can figure. ---- Stories out this weekend that "Bankers favour paying global tax" send chills up my spine. First it's a global tax so bankers who fail won't really have to fail: They will just get bailed out by everyone on earth! In any other industry, crooked behavior and malfeasance - or misfeasance - would get you kicked out, debarred, license revoked and other punitive measures inflicting real pain.
But not anymore. Nossir. Bankster have become a special protected class. THEY are too big to fail. YOU are not. If something goes wrong with THEM along comes bailouts. Even works in Insurance as AIG clearly showed. But if YOU fail, say good-bye house, hello underpass, hello blue plastic tarps.
All made easier by the supreme court decision on corporate purchases of elective office two weeks back; remember where the Supremes (no, the ones without Diana Ross) said no corporate spending restrictions.
So what happens next, you're wondering? Best I can tell, we all sit back and watch to see which currency block will get its way first. The banksters and their global tax, the Carboneers and Al Gore with their carbon credit schemes, or will it be simply more of the same paper?
You saw recently where the World Health Organization is eyeing a global tax on Internet activity, too? --- As Cliff and Igor look at the possibility of doing another web bot run so we can get a little better insight into how all this plays out, the detail level of what's ahead will likely vary only a bit from the really zoomed-out Big Picture out of the Rickety Time Machine:
There's a good chance (e.g. non-zero) that what's coming will be out of control of the paper, credit, carbon, taxing forces. Only at the top-o-the-heap are the real insiders busily preparing for underground shelter, bug-out plans to the Alte Plano and so forth. --- Just as the 'al Qaeda" types are reportedly moving into position surrounding Pakistan, so too the moneymeisters are moving into position to seize for their own ends both the captive labor and captive consumers in Western markets. Each bring their own particular form of confiscatory money-scheme with them.
Over time, there's good reason to fear for America's future. But, it's only Monday. No point getting any more worked up about it this week than any other. The Nation of frogs will be brought to boil, but it will be a slow heat rise and we're all good as cooked.
A number of historians have projected that America can only last just so long since there's enough socialism built into the system that the free-lunch crowd eventually grows large enough to swap the great Ship of State.
Something I ponder every day when the headlines are about record national debt, and the latest scams by government to assert even more control in return for even greater tribute. Like I said, though, this is only Monday and a well-ordered week lays ahead here in the feedlot.
Check Your Computer Make sure you have your fire wall and antivirus up to date...that's the actionable point off this reader email:
Why, of course! It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that with so much ecommerce going on, internet attacks are a neat way to attack governments and civilian populations.
Seed Shortage No worries about an independent population growing their own food if there's a seed shortage, is there?
Watch For It New Oliver Stone flick Wall Street 2 is due out this spring.
Down at the WuJo: Sat Mapping Class Want to go reality hunting on Google Earth? Try this one on:
May not be UN vehicles - may be our own sandbox toys, remember too the Google imagery is often a couple of years old. Still, makes one wonder, doesn't it? They sure look mighty similar....Imagery is from Jan 3, 2008.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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by Graham Hancock.
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too.
