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Friday May 17, 2013 07:55 AM CST FAQ
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Real Economic Indicators
We'll begin this morning at our roots - long wave economics - and remind you that we're still in an economic depression, which is characterized by massive deflation, although it's being cleverly hidden from sight by simply printing up gobs and oodles of cash money and bailing out banks so they won't dump foreclosed property on the market and precipitate the second major leg down since 2007 which may come along on its own.
While you may have heard that cash is going out of style and everything is now done with plastic? That's not the case, apparently since the Federal Reserve has been printing up M1 at a non-seasonally adjusted rate of increase of 11.86%. The broader measure, M2 (which includes a few time deposits) is up 6.9%.
Although the Fed is apparently too embarrassed to print M3 anymore, my friend Trader Bart dutifully tracks it and it's going up about at the rate of 7½ percent annualized, plus or minus a fudge sundae.
Since we reported that prices fell in the Consumer Price report Thursday down 0.4%, that implies that the real rate of deflation is running about 7.9% annualized right now.
That's why, despite the frantic hand-wringing of the gold bugs, the price of gold has dropped from around $1,500 down to the $1,375 range. But that's OK, since I figure its a fine buying opportunity which could get even better the closer gold gets to $800.
Eventually, the bond market rates will begin to climb, though not for a year or longer, perhaps, but when it does then gold and anything else of value will head skyward when inflation returns.
At a macro econ level there's been a historical shift: Republicans used to be (once upon a time) the party of thrift and balanced budgets. But the democrats have really been doing a better job of it. In a sense, we're watching conservative socialists on one side versus the socialist conservatives on the other.
If you're feeling confused by it all, well, that's the New Normal.
One reader asked me to comment on the CNBC "Death Cross" story about how bond rates could dip below one percent.
Likely? Let me give you an unqualified maybe on it. Here's why: The Fed can print money all day long. The problem they have is how to get it into circulation. That's why a huge natural disaster in the period just ahead might actually be a good thing in economic terms. Oh, sure, a billion dead is bad (especially if you happen to be among them). But think how it would give a cover to the high crimes and misdemeanors crowd!
There's actually an incentive to cause it, if they could...blame shifting.
Roll Over Ahead?
In last Saturday's Peoplenomics report (ChartPack section) I began with the question "Rollover Ready?" because my weird charting system seemed to be hinting that this week, or next, not only could global markets run into trouble, but my timing model which has been long since December would be in a logical turn area. If, that is, my weird charting technique works.
I'm not the only one nervous as a cat. Robin Handler, who publishes the Options Signal Service is feeling it, too:
"George, Hell of a day. Stuck at the computer since 7 am yesterday morning. First read your blog a few minutes ago at 1 am this morning. I see your financial guys are nervous. Same here. Everything went in reversal this week in a very big way. Each month I contribute a monthly forecast in the Schogt Market Timing newsletter http://www.markettiming.nl/en/ along with a number of other financial astrologers. There was a general consensus this month that a dip in the markets would happen around May 9-11 or May 26-28. If the latter, it would be more severe. Isn't Cliff High all worked up about the 26th? Hmm... "
Well, truth be told, Clif's all worked up about the period before the 26th.
So let's just for a sec line up some of what's going on
So while there are bound to be a lot of heated words and continuing political melodramatics, we'll keep our eye on the things that really matter in here: Potential lead in to major earth changes, consumer spending, and the odds of the Middle East lighting up with mushroom-shaped clouds.
And, as it happens, all of those "other items" may be the ones that spawn future impacting events, not necessarily the ones leading hourly newscasts.
We have to give the day's Green Star to reader Michael in Scottsdale who suggests what sounds like a national game called Cabinet Roulette:
"Dear George, State Dept under Hillary, Justice Dept under Attorney General Holder, IRS under Treasury Dept (Geithner) are all being investigated?
Which cabinet secretary is next?
How about the BLS under the Labor Secretary? The Birth/Death Models, Telephone Surveys, and those "no longer looking for work" should be investigated since the Obama reelection seems to be a core problem in DC. "
I have to admit, it would be fun to put private sector economists into the ring with the Labor Dept. forecasters and maker-uppers...
Hand in the Cookie Jar?
You will want to keep a close eye on the whereabouts of Russia's Vlad Putin.
Why? Well, there are some hints on a few prediction forums that when Putin disappears from public view, that will be a signal that things in the Middle East are about to "light up."
The overview is that Russia has sold advanced weaponry to Syria.
And, notes an NPR report, Russia has warships in the vicinity of Syria now obviously making a statement.
After telling Israel to stay out of Russia-Syria deals, UN chief Ban Ki-moon is due in Moscow about in effort to pour oil on the water.
If the period ahead is indeed to be a "All Bad Things Happening At Once" festival, then we could see a period when we get a major quake, Israel attacking freshly delivered Russian arms, hitting Iran on nukes, multiple flashes and flashpoints.
About then, North Korea could [opportunistically] head into South Korea, China could take Taiwan at its leisure, all of which could play out against a background of a global coastal event.
Kind of like an epic disaster movie, except you'd get to live the ending.
More after this...
Departments & Entities
Weather Acting Badly
All over the place, it seems. We'll start with distant places first: China has 33-dead, lots more missing from monsoon-like weather hit southern China with rain and hailstorms. China's also watching the waters rising in the Mongolia autonomous region.
Bangladesh is cleaning up today from a major cyclone which went through killing a number of people, but it was less damaging than feared.
And here in the US, people up in Granbury Texas which is about 34 miles southwest of Fort Worth, and still looking for survivors. The toll from the tornado up there is six dead and seven missing yet, at latest check.
Not to Freak Out Seattle, But...
A perfect scenario for an 8.5-9+ quake in the Pacific Northwest over the next week or two would run like this:
A week, or so, before the event, there would be a hugely noticeable uptick in lost and found pet traffic on Craigslist. Oh-oh, don't look now but:
A reader asked a good question about what this means:
I don't understand your pet charts from today, what are the last two rows?
Sorry... I sometimes forget to explain my research...assuming everyone is inside my head. The second like up is the average number of missing pets in the sample. The bottom number is the current data divided by the average. So Seattle's average is 7.75 reports per day which means the reported number for Thursday was 6.84 times average volume on topic.
I would have simply reported standard deviations but that might be another math class you dozed off in...
Anyway, in the idealized (based on net logic) run-up to a major quake we would then we would have X-class flares pop off over the weekend and then an expando planet event mid next week with some kind of "left hanging...day of anticipation kind of thing...next Wednesday.
Of course this is not my preference. Still, Clif's got a bit more data and in it is the "tiger days" of the Sun, which I presume to mean stripes, which would infer tons of sunspots and that angry sun we have talked about earlier.
So we shall watch developments over the next two weeks with great interest.
Beyond the 2012 Miss
I had a dandy conversation with Arch Crawford yesterday and we kicked around a number of significant astrologically significant dates which come up later on this year.
The two which could be significant to put on the calendar for this year are July 22 (bad, mostly markets) and November 13th.
This date is particularly noteworthy, explained Arch, since if you're going to worry about "solar kill shots" and stuff, this would be the date to keep handy b ecause there's a huge heliocentric event that date. Involves a Uranus/Pluto square and some Jupiter influence I'm sure I'd get wrong if I tried to explain it.
But here's the takeaway: Most astro events like this biggy heliocentric thing are considered an event if they are right within 1.5 to 2 degrees. This one lines up like nothing we've had in recent history, lining things up down to 3-minutes of arc. Needs to say, the astro folks didn't worry too much about 12/21/2012. But this one really has Arch worried about some kind of sun activity in this period.
Not to feed into his concerns, but that would be right at the place on the backside of solar cycle 25 where we would expect the largest of flares to occur, too.
Oh, and one other entry for the worrywart calendar is April 21-22 next year which has the potential to be apocalyptic in terra/geological terms.
Bet that sets your mood for the morning, huh? Did I mention in his own account Arch has been buying a few put options?
Fighting the Police State
State lawmakers in Austin, Texas this week have restored my faith in government somewhat. Voting to cut funding for the Texas Fusion Center from the state budget.
I suspect that while terrorism is a problem, folks in Austin are bright enough to figure out that targeting people who carry around a copy of the Constitution or Bill of Rights may not exactly be sound thinking.
Good news and bad, it seems. On the bad side, California may see (poor pun alert) shocking electricity rate increases this summer.
Tesla Motors stock is rising with the win of the Car of the Year honors for the Model S and a gushing near perfect score from Consumer Reports.
More after this....
Coping: Friday at the WuJo: Bad Luck Strings?
Here's an interesting thought to ponder:
I want to discuss the subject of what I consider wujo, but it's a bad kind. More like Cujo. Every now and then I hit a string of bad stuff. The last time this happened, it was 3 months of sickness, broken appliances, and car problems after our beloved 18 year old cat passed. This time (we're cat and dog people) our eldest feline Elvis passed and here comes the Cujo string. He left us a month ago.
I'm not sure if it's the cats, or they are just the tip of the evil iceberg when they go. Like canaries. I'm not sure if this time we haven't pissed off the spirits in our 1908-used-to-be-an-old-folks-home. They welcomed us, the strange ones stay in the corners, and our family is at peace in the house. There are 6 of us and 3 including me are "sensitives". We all feel them and for the most part, nothing bad happens. Like I said, I think they were happy a family with kids and pets came to stay. We were welcomed. So maybe the cat passing opened another portal.
last 10 days, in order:
These birth pains are coming faster and faster all around us: sun awakens, politics crumbling, time moving faster, markets climbing rapidly, events spiraling. Plateau, slide or crash ahead?
Y es, I suppose it looks like there is a connection, but I
always point out that a read of Gilovich may help: How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life.
Then again, it may not...
es, I suppose it looks like there is a connection, but I always point out that a read of Gilovich may help: How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life. Then again, it may not...
Prepping: The Best Tool in Your Pocket
We've had some pretty good feedback in answer to the question "What's the most valuable tool in your pocket? This could become a very interesting question on the US/West Coast if there's a quake up there in the near future, for example.
Here's what some readers had to say:
JeffD: A can opener
JK: Most valuable tool in my purse: small solar flashlight, whistle, and mirror
9point: Most useful tool in pocket? Easy answer is my SOG Flash I utility knife. Does what it’s designed to do and if I loose it, it’s no big deal. The knife is cheap enough to keep several on hand. Never leave home without it under most circumstances. Been carrying the same one for three years and it’s still good as new after lots of use.
Stephen: Most used Pocket Tools: 1. Ink pen & sheet of paper (never know when you are going to have to write a million dollar contract on the fly -still hoping) 2. Pocket comb (so you can look good when you write it) 3. Debit Card/Cash (grease the wheels, eat, and keep rolling, or in your case, flying) 4. Spyderco Endura (Great folding fighter and steak knife, etc. but not much good for whittling) 5. Red Bandana (wipe face, spills and tears of distressed damsels, children, etc.. keep your neck warm) 6. Bic lighter. (Fire in the hole) 7. Wallet (your papers please) 8. Passport (for when you have to get out of Dodge to Panama, Brazil, or back into the USA.) On the Belt. When in the field or working out doors, the Standard LeatherMan Tool is my all time most used tool. D Link Key ring with a LED mini button light.
Glen: Leatherman Kick. I am on my third nylon case, that I carry on my belt. The cases only last 2 or 3 years each.
Tom: George my friend always a pleasure to read your column!! I have a gerber multi tool on my right hip from the moment I wake till I hit the plank for some shut eye. When the day is going to be especially “handy man” focused I carry 2 one on each side. They make several kinds this one is my fav I fell nekked with out one!!
Greg: The most valuable tool in my pocket is a 2.5" long Leatherman "Micra" folding tool. The relatively large spring loaded folding scissor it the most valuable tool in the Micra.
Wiz: Without a moments hesitation: The Victorinox Swiss Army Champion (predecessor to the current SwissChamp) that my wife gave me for our second anniversary, some 29 years ago. Technically it's not in my pocket, it's on my hip. But it's been my constant companion all that time, used daily.... exept for days spent on airplanes & the two months it took to have the scales replaced (under warranty) in 2011. Maybe that gizmo is a sight adjusting tool of some sort?
Joel: Swiss Army Knife Officier Suisse
WD: The P-38 can opener
Rituals DO Work
Wow...thanks for Frank for the tip... did you see the article in Salon/Scientific American about how "Little Rituals really do work"?
I'm not sure how you test throwing salt over your left shoulder, but wowzer!
Free Plug of the Week
I've decided that we should add a Friday Feature called FPOTW - free plug of the week and to kick things off this week's goes to reader/artist Tes Mapua in the Philippines who takes the time to send us news tips from that part of the world.
She gets a free plug for her art gallery showing coming up:
About that sword piece, she explained in a note to Clif and me...
"The octagon frame (Eastern symbol) is 5ft around and made of hard wood and the mount is 1 1/2 ft tall. The sword is a copy I made of a 16th C. ceremonial sword (Western symbol). I use discarded toys to put into expression, what I feel needs to be said to myself and to all. I am not a blogger like any of you, so I use different material to say what you all are saying. There is a Spiderman standing on the edge of the sword. All he asks: "Don't you think it's time to get off the web of deceit and start living on the Edge?", a question I found on the Internet somewhere. It could be yours...."
Even on a good day, the range on the Beechcrate is 900 miles so we'd have to fly up over the Aleutians...nope, not this time, regrettably.
Although I believe the chance of a major earthquake to meet all the linguistic expectations is low, I would encourage you to be well-prepared, have a full tank of gas, a couple of weeks of water and food plus having a communications plan to get word to friends and relatives outside of any disaster area.
I mention this because there's two more bits of information to ponder which are coming from two separate predictive endeavors. One is Clif's latest (partial) run thanks to the data gapping and DDoS crap on the net. His work shows a kind of "undeserved global misfortune."
And the one that blows me away is the overnight Nostracodeus run which contained this thought-provoking matrix:
I don't know about you, but the arrival of the word "suffer" as a new word in the mix is not exactly encouraging. Except, as always, the Boy Scouts have always been right: "Be Prepared!"
See you Monday, unless you're a Peoplenomics subscriber, in which case we look back at 1960 and how in some ways, like it or not, there are signs portions of humans are going "Back to the 60s."
Answer to that one is I don't want to spoilt the real thing, so no, not until July if nothing happens. If the movie is the message, we are seriusly screwed.
Write when you break even...
Here are some useful ways to spend your money...
Now on the www.peoplenomics.com website ($40/year premium content)
You Want Advice? From ME?
Lots of reader email piled up this week as I am now all but 30-pages from being finished with the proofreading on Real Time Machines: The Future is an App which should be up on Amazon (with any luck) by mid week. I thought this morning I'd run through some of the mail because much of it is thought-provoking and I'm always willing to help the Victims of Process and the downtrodden in general. We'll also run through some expectation for next week and the week after, since big earthquake and options expiration for the month are just ahead.
P.S. Don't forget: Peoplenomics subscribers are what keep the lights on at UrbanSurvival....since subscriptions there offset the expenses of this site.
Get Your Cookies Off!
It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.
To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.
Books by Ure Favorite Writer
I have a couple of well-received eBooks out there, if you enjoy a cynical/humorous view of economics and life in general.
If you're a cheapskate, or life has been dealing you off the bottom of the deck out How to Live on $10,000 a Year - or Less. Available from Amazon for $9.95.
And, as long as you have your wallet out, go ahead and live large - SPLURGE! and buy a copy of Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet, also in that $10-dollar price range.
Be warned, however, these books have actually been spell-checked and proofed, so our usual written at 5 AM anagram challenge material is distinctly lacking.
Oh, and if you want to get a grip of prepping, my friend Gaye and I have the ever-popular 11 Steps to Living a Strategic Life which is a penny under $3-bucks.
Now, if you are saying to yourself "Gee, gosh, love to read it, but I don't have one of them neat-o Kindle Fire HD 7", Dolby Audio, Dual-Band Wi-Fi, 16 GB - Includes Special Offers for $199, remember you don't have to get the Kindle Reader - and you can simply download the Kindle Reader for whatever you happen to have: PC, Mac, Windows 8, iPods, Android, and more Smartphones than you can shake a stick at.
Last time I checked, however, they were not yet available for the VIC-20, Commodore 64, or food processor. I'm sure they're working on it, however.
Tell Your Friends about UrbanSurvival
Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks!
Thursday May 16, 2013
CPI and Other Adventures
Sorry to seem long-winded this morning, but since I was rudely awakened at about 2 AM by wind, rain, hail, lightning, and since I didn't go back to bed, we have much ground to cover in our morning romp through financial matters, government economic reports, and a fair side of other matters in our Coping section.
Plus, now that my latest book Real Time Machines: The Future is an APP is on Amazon, I can sit back for a short time between books and return to our odd ways of looking at news and life in general. So, consider yourself warned.
Be Wary of Markets
A little later on this morning, I'll pick up a dandy conversation that started last night with Arch Crawford, who as you may recall published the Crawford Perspectives which is a dandy reference for those who seek some guidance about markets, and life in general, from what's "written in the stars."
Arch, I think it's safe to safe, is nervous as a cat. I didn't follow all of it, but about mid-morning today if I followed it right, Mars does something astrologically that could result in the markets going seriously awry.
Oddly, he's not the only one.
A longish conversation with my friend Robin Landry, who's an Elliott wave expert, yielded similar concerns. As Robin sees it, if the market doesn't begin a pullback in the next week, or so, we could be in a commodity-market-like blow-off in stocks which could zoom past 20,000 on the Dow and perhaps 2,200 on the S&P.
He didn't think that too much would get going until options come off the table - and most positions will be cleared by the final hour in tomorrow's trading.
And, as if that's not enough, our proprietary model over on the Peoplenomics.com website is in the same kind of place: We should close this week slightly down from yesterday's close, and then begin a pullback. If not, then yes, how do you say parabolic blow-off top?
If we don't get the pullback, which will tell us a lot about "How far is down?" by its shape and so forth, Landry sees a chance that "Sell in May" won't happen this year and we could just flip right on into the summer rally.
Not that it matters. My model has been long since December, so sit back and let's print some more money, shall we? Ideally, I'd sure like to see the market drop about 150 points before the Friday close.
Now, let's put on our thinking caps and see what could do that?
Normally I gnash my teeth, fume, sputter, curse, and mumble about the quality of the Consumer Price Report just out. But, with the book done, I had a few minutes yesterday to go looking for other sources of food price info (for one) to see what other research looks like.
Every quarter, from what I can gather, the American Farm Bureau Federation comes out with a marketbasket survey in which they report on food prices. I like their work because going into this morning's data from the sequestered US Dept. of Labor, we can see how things were looking in Q1 2013 and maybe use it to guide expectations going forward.
In this infographic from their latest news release I want you to look closely at the food prices they're reporting which are down 2% compared with a year ago.
OK, now we can go on to this morning's CPI report and compare eggs, milk, and shredded cheese with whatever the Labor Department uses:
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. As was the case in March, a sharp decrease in the gasoline index was the primary cause of the decline in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The fuel oil index also declined while the electricity and natural gas indexes increased; the net result was a 4.3 percent decrease in the energy index. The food index, unchanged in March, rose 0.2 percent in April.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in April, the same increase as in March. The indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and tobacco all increased in April. These increases were partially offset by declines in the indexes for apparel, airline fares, and recreation.
The all items index increased 1.1 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since November 2010. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.7 percent over the span; this was its smallest 12-month increase since June 2011. The food index rose 1.5 percent while the energy index declined 4.3 percent.
THIS IS DEFLATION, PAL! Pretty quick the Second Depression reality will become undeniable. Kiss off any consumer-driven recovery wet dreams.
This consumer price report should scare the hell out of you and make you start chasing away dust bunnies so you can hide under the bed when the whole shitteree goes up in a cloud of electrons and digidollars.
Why? Well, as I've been saying for years now, one of the hallmarks of a Depression is a collapse in the Velocity of Money.
Here's the thing on Velocity that most people don't appreciate: When a country is teetering on the brink of Depression (go ahead, look up and take a wild-ass guess which country we're talking about...got it?) is people pull in their spending plans because why?
There's an expectation that things will be cheaper in the future.
That's why the Fed is nervously handing banks whatever they want - including the kitchen sink - in order to keep huge blocks of bank-owned repossessed homes from coming onto the market. They're like scared shitless of that because then consumer spending on other things - like cars and so forth will crater, too, and all of their efforts to prevent the vicious cycle of a great depression would have been for naught.
(Say, isn't this light, cheery, fun reading?)
Now, a quick refresher in fractals: In mathematics, many charts appear to be fractal...and you can look up fractals over here because I'm not going to let my coffee get cold while you go back for a math class you skipped or slept through.
What I am going to do is rub your nose in how declines in velocity can (although not always) be proximate to recessions...
See that poorly marked X? That's about the time Ures truly MAY look at moving back to the Pacific Northwest. I'd like a little beachfront cabin for the summertime which would leave our heirs umpteen gazillionaires when the hyper inflation comes along, which is also why buying gold down at the $750 to $1,000 range (which Robin Landry has forecast for years only to get thoroughly trashed by the gold bugs, but he's having the last laugh and may be hysterically rolling around shortly as the decline in gold seems to be accelerating) may be the best thing to do.
The biggest risk in timing our departure from Texas is that right about then should be when all the money the Fed has been printing will come rolling out of rich people's bank accounts to buy at the bottom which will push prices through the roof and we'll be in a once-in-a-lifetime position to buy stocks at rock bottom prices...after the Big Crash.
The place NOT to have money would be banks where, as any Cypriot will tell you, trusting the government may not work out so well. And somewhere in here, look for social contract to be essentially reworked if not torn up because government's still gotta keep on growing because as automation keeps stealing away human jobs, well, like I've told you on that one...what's left to do beside govern everything you can think of.
Honest, we're going to try and OSHA ourselves into prosperity.
Certainly the corporate duopoly which has seized Washington will find new and creative ways to screw us, but that's how life is anymore.
Ned Ludd 2016, says I! We need more jobs and less machines! And we need them 10-years ago along with a genuine focus on peace and prosperity at home instead of plundering the world. Care to guess why I'm not going to be on a ballot anywhere. Bring back the American Whig Party! Peace & Prosperity! Four Presidents (and Daniel Webster) were not wrong!
There: I did warn you about this morning's column, didn't I?
Departments & Entities
Clif and I chatted yesterday told each other our favorite joke:
"Normal..." (followed by one or the other of us laughing hysterically)
Hmmm...why would time wonks be laughing at the word normal?
Well, let's see: How about "It's the middle of May! Two inches of snow, one month's rainfall in a day and 65mph winds hit Britain..."
This morning, it's a lot more serious and I remind you about me screaming "Grow food or die..." but if you were going to listen, you would have by now...so I'll put that on the shelf along with "Everything's a business model..." Another right but no one wants to hear it...
A heavy line of thunderstorms through East Texas overnight bringing hail up to 3-inches in diameter to some areas to the north of us. The real damage was in the city of Granbury where six people died and dozens were injured when a massive twister tore through that area last evening...
Just looking at the weather radars in the area it looks like folks up in the ArkLaTex area are going to be hammered for another couple of hours as storms grind their way off to the northeast.
As I jot down this note, the time is 02:50 AM and the power has been off for a half-hour, or so and we'll using all those dandy batteries in the solar power system to keep power on now.
I'll try to have the report up this morning at the usual time, but if not, we're fine and conserving energy since we don't know when the power will be back up in our part of the Outback this morning.
As we await the arrival of our major quake window, I happened to do some research this morning (since I was up) and I took a look at missing pet traffic on Craigslist up and down the West Coast/US because that's one of the possible regions for a large quake in this window now fast approaching.
Data Updated 3:40 AM:
We noticed a quake off the southern end of Africa which would be consistent with earth movement prior to a big event in Indonesia or the Indian Ocean.
I'll run additional runaway pet data for the 15th and update as the morning wears on and power permits.
Say...this doesn't by chance mean the lighting storm which was mentioned in the data is here, does it? A lot of Google News hits on lightning this morning including this dramatic video of TV tower in St. Petersburg being zapped...
More as the morning goes on...time to make some coffee on the BBQ side burner...
Oh...and this from a reader:
"Hi George and Cliff, Since another X flare is hitting earth on May 17th re www.spaceweather.com and there is a prescient dream re May 18th that George posted on his website some time ago. Hmmphf. This weekend should be interesting.
I usually set my alarm for 5 a.m. and finally get out of the bed at 5:30 a.m. and strive to be in the car hopefully by 6:15 to make it to work by 8:00. Today I thought if I got in the car I'd have to pull off the road to puke. Stayed home. Did not eat until about 8:00 p.m and that was just a couple of slices of cheese.
Strangely enough, Leo the cat who owns me, also puked up his food this morning. I just wanted to reassure Cliff that he isn't the only one feeling nervous re a GCE.
And the data gaps? Har, Spaceweather was offline for about 4 or more hours yesterday. Hmmm? Why would their information be suppressed? Its like turning off the Weather Channel.
Oh well who knows. I have 3 or more years worth of Cliff's information in hard copy. Almost recycled it a while back, but did not. Thank the goddess.
So if you ever need it let me know. Thank you both for all you do, and yes, no one gets out of here alive. However, if the GCE occurs, I'd like to give you both thanks in advance for all you have done to forewarn all of us humans, like me who am enamored of, and thankful that both of you exist. I for one, love you both. Hopefully, I will recognize you both on the flip-flop, or the other side - I think there is one.
I should be easy to spot: I'll be wearing the dunce cap, lol.
Remember, I like to think it's all just a data anomaly, but with all those flares and such... Keep an eye on the HAARP magnetometers...not because they are causative but because they are easy to follow. The big whumps around Fukushima time were in the vicinity (after) some 1,000 NT deviations, so if you see some of them along over the next week, that may be a clue....or not.
They Said, They Said
The two national distractions are still in play this morning. Benghazi emails contradict what the White House is saying...like this is a surprise.
And in the latest on the IRS outage, seems one report now claims IRS denied tax exempt status to pro-lifers on behalf of Planned Parenthood?
With an IRS chief out, I'd volunteer to head up IRS, but I don't think I'd have a ghost's chance in hell. For one, I'd let humans write off everything non-human corporations can...turnabout is fair play off Citizens United, is it not?
Coping: Best Tool in Your Pocket
This may become the topic of our contest shortly...which I keep meaning to get to.... As a prepper, what is the best tool in your pocket right now?
I'll tell you why this comes up: Note from our favorite war gamer:
"Shooters who are also multi-tool aficionados of the world - rejoice! " (Link to Defense News article)
As luck would have it, I am apparently supposed to hold a learned discussion about knives, sharps, Leatherman Tools, and so forth this morning because the I-Ching mailbox, out of the blue, delivered this peach keep paracord wrapped hand-fashioned.....er....that's the problem. I'm not quiet sure presactly what it is...
So it's a really well executed piece of fine steel about 4-inches long, and as I said, wrapped in paracord and even initialed by the maker up in Bartlesville, Oklahoma. (STR are the toolmaker's initials, like you didn't figure that out, right?)
As I got to looking at it - as you can see here, it is really nicely worked and wonderfully executed with the paracord wrap but darned if I could remember ever seeing one of these before.
Then I got to looking at the end and I thought...small nail pulling device?
No....Ures truly is an unappreciative, unschooled oaf, who doesn't have much experience with knives except for the Byrd, Spyderco, and this old gem of a Case knife which has been handed down to the senior male in the Ure clan for a good long while and it still holds a fine edge and is perfectly suited for cutting herring, just so, when out mooching for salmon in later summer.
So hopefully I can tell you tomorrow what the device is that arrived in the mail. Too big to be a toothpick, too small be useful gardening, ideal for pulling nails from small work, but I don't think that's it, although my threatened move into cabinet-making as my next major adventure may have prompted the gesture.
Back to point: I'd be very interested in collecting ideas on what people thing is the most useful tool they carry in pocket (or purse) and no pictures of genitals or guns, please.
This is serious stuff: Leatherman? Swiss Army? What exactly? I'll share if anyone responds.
Nostracodeus New Look
Speaking of Decoding the Past...
My buddy (and co-author of the MyGroPonics books, JB Slear has been working his way through the marvelous four-book series by Anatoly Fomenko with the imposing title of History: Fiction or Science? Dating methods as offered by mathematical statistics. Eclipses and zodiacs. Chronology Vol.I.
Turns out, reports JB, that there are additional volumes that he's been trying to track down:
"Hey George and Cliff, I have a friend in the school book selling business and asked him if he could help me find the missing books in the series “History: Fiction or Science?” As you know I have book volume 1 thru 4 and am not able to find v5 to v7 ..... Here’s what he found and suspects;
Not too awesome so far JB…. I have an email into the French ISBN agency to see if they can help me find the information on V5-V7 and also whom I could buy them from here in the States. I sent an email to the publisher (whom has no website) and it was returned undeliverable. They appear to have intentionally hidden their information. US ISBN agency had no contact information and what they did have was incomplete. Read slowly…. Take care,
So...this means what? Well, a couple of things. One suspicion that comes up is that people who pass the collection plate may not be too fond of someone who says much of what they're selling was made up in the Middle Ages... BUT it also means that if you have a copy in English of the further writings, I can think of three nutjobs who'd like to finish the series. If you only have a copy in Russian, send it to Clif. JB and I are a little rusty on our Cyrillic.
There...has this been a fun morning, or what? Now, off to the real world where you can tax your body instead of your mind. Until same time, same website tomorrow, of course.
Wednesday May 15, 2013
Book Release Day!
Freshly posted at Amazon. I think I got most of the typos out, but if you find them, let me know and I will post the revisions later in the week...
If you don't have a Kindle Reader, click over to the downloadable app from Amazon to read it...the app is free... The Mac app is here and over here for Windows 8. And yes, they have one for Android as well....
Now, for Peoplenomics subscribers...
Winners & Losers
I decided to make a cut at the data in our twice-weekly ChartPack this morning and develop a couple of charts to show which countries and regions have been particularly "hot" from an investment standpoint since the market lows in 2009. The reason for doing this? To get a better sense of where to park money...since overseas investing via index ETFs is pie-simple. After, that is, we get through some of the morning's headlines...
Lemme see...what else?
Oh yes...Clif is on pins and needles wondering about the GCE, so keep an eye out for solar flaring on that front. And Gaye over at www.backdoorsurvival.com has 16 food storage tips for the space challenged prepper...by which I assume she's not talking about the International Space Station...
Yes, passed the flight medical and BFR this week, so I should be able to get back into my "regular groove" shortly... more tomorrow morning.
Same time, same website...
Tuesday May 14, 2013
Say, not to go sounding like "I told you so..." since we haven't had the Big Quake (not due until next week) BUT there are a couple of fine "disaster porn" elements lining up in a really discomforting way.
First is that patch of Sun which is spewing big flares has popped off with a couple of X-Class babies overnight:
"Two X class flares have occurred, both from new NOAA AR 1748, currently rotating into view at the east limb. This is the region responsible for the last X and M flares in past 48 hours. The first was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast limb CMEs. The speeds are 1800 km/s for the first one and 1600 km/s for the second one. They were seen as partial halos from the Earth. Due to the source region location right at the limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold. "
And as if that's not a heads up to expect some major quaking when it arrives, we had a 6.8 (initially reported as a 7.0) over in the Marianas Trench this morning on the Pacific side.
Event Time 2013-05-14 00:32:25
UTC 2013-05-14 10:32:25 UTC+10:00 at epicenter
2013-05-13 19:32:25 UTC-05:00 system time
Location 18.748°N 145.294°E depth=601.8km (373.9mi)
39km (24mi) W of Agrihan, Northern Mariana Islands
394km (245mi) N of Northern Islands Municipality - Mayor's Office, Northern Mariana Islands
394km (245mi) N of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands
419km (260mi) N of JP Tinian Town pre-WW2, Northern Mariana Islands
578km (359mi) N of Yigo Village, Guam
Well, now, we will certain keep an eye on things since another few days and that active region of the Sun will be able to launch X-class more or less our way and shortly after that (in the predictive linguistics data) live becomes...how shall we say...interesting?
Yes, I saw the reference to an "ice tsunami" roll past in headlines and videos this week..
Speakling of the Leaky Future
This little press release is certainly supportive of our notion that the future casts a long shadow before it....in other words, it leaks into present:
"Recent Celebrity Deaths are Predicted by Ranker Crowdsourcing, Study Shows At the end of each year, there are usually media stories that compile lists of famous people who have passed away. These lists usually cause us to pause and reflect. Lists like Celebrity Death Pool 2013 on Ranker, however, give us an opportunity to make (macabre) predictions about recent celebrity deaths. Can the wisdom of crowds predict recent celebrity deaths?
An analysis of recent celebrity deaths by UCI professor of cognitive sciences, Michael Lee, using recently published algorithms revealed that the aggregated opinions of Ranker users about recent celebrity deaths were relatively accurate. Aggregated predictions were better than chance and better than all but one individual users' opinion. "
Still, we're someone what assured (by the model of the model or MoM for short) that we'll both be around until at least July....which is comforting I suppose...
Mount Popo Poop
I will skip the obvious "ring of fire" references and merely direct you here.
Maybed what's causing this is the Earth's center is out of synch...
Attack on the Press
The Associated Press has been targeted by the government. Why? Well Eric Holder, et al, in the Justice Department are trying to track down leaks of what they figure were sensitive details of an alleged Yemeni terrorism plot.
I have to admit I started with mixed feelings on this: On the one hand, I understand the need to fight terrorism (real) but the problem is that every call made by the reporters in this was logged and that seriously gets into the abridging of the constitutionally framed free press.
But it turns out that the AP, as always, acted in good faith, holding back on publication until after the news would NOT endanger American intelligence interests. What they did NOT do was wait until the Obamanistas could spoonfeed the whole world the story at the same time.
In journalism this is called a scoop and by God, if the AP did a good job of news reporting and now the Obamanistas are going for phone records and such, then this is (in newsroom parlance) a serious bullshit political attack on an independent and enterprising news organization.
An attack, I would hasten to mention is by the same people who used IRS to target the Tea Party and other conservative groups. (Should I toss in gunwalkers, too?)
Starting to see a kind of State Media Control pattern of a Sovietesque stripe, are we?
The Obamanistas distancing themselves from the dog on their own leash is amateurish and insulting. Don't blame the dog!
The people blame the dog trainers who tell the dog how to behave, comrade.
Departments & Entities
Taking the "Local" Out of Law Enforcement
Comes word now that the State Department will be offering Boston police overseas junkets (training) in return for...well, you figure it out.
I Sit Corrected Dept.
Our news analyst up in Winnipeg thinks I was far to reassuring in my assessment of Pakistan's new prime minister:
Dear Mr. Ure,
Thank you for your calming thoughts noting Pakistan's new prime minister as being a "wealthy industrialist". Please consider his past record of introducing sharia law, and an interrupted return from exile in Saudi Arabia, a nation not generally viewed as a beacon of democracy.
I love Canadian understatement (and beer).
Spy vs. Spy
An American who reportedly has CIA links, has been detained by Russia.
Since he was caught with a number of technical devices, instructions from a Russian he had tried to recruit and a big load of money I guess we could say the Putinistas caught the suspect green-handed, eh?
To Market To Market
Won't be too many fat pigs, though. I expect things to be held pretty much stable going into options later this week. Gold was down in the preopen, again.
While we wait for price reports tomorrow (which we will dissect in Peoplenomics for subscribers) be thankful you don't live in the Indian state of Karnataka where this buzz this morning is that inflation slowed in April to 9.29%
That['s gotta be a bummer from the jbjacking kapitalist class which is sooner or later going to be facing wage-driven inflation in countries they've been exploiting. Paybacks a bitch, but no time soon...more like 3-5 years out.
Forecasts for China also being cut.
But the virtualization of world marches on with LCD sales gong up a good bit.
Passings: Dr. Joytce Brothers
Counseling for Conspiracy Theories?
Singer Lauryn Hill has been ordered off to jail for $500,000 in unpaid taxes, which happens now and then. But the kicker is that she's been ordered to receive "counseling" for her conspiracy beliefs.
Seems she believes (and it's not too often I quote a source like this) "...she is still forced to live under the pernicious economic hierarchy imposed by the slave trade..."
Yeah, well, aren't we all, now? Still, one has to recognize that the man still wants his taxes...and it's easier to pay the vig than live in the box. As we're so fond of saying: "First you need a Navy..."
But speaking of which, there's an interesting mental framework to be considered in this morning's Coping Section....
Coping: Ripping Off Technocracy
Oh, good grief! Now we have reports of a merger between Google and the Bilderbergers...
OK, here's the joke, right? First you need to know a little bit about Technocracy. Wiki, please?
"The technocracy movement is a social movement which arose in the early 20th century. Technocracy was popular in the USA for a brief period in the early 1930s, before it was overshadowed by other proposals for dealing with the crisis of the Great Depression. The technocrats proposed replacing politicians and businesspeople with scientists and engineers who had the technical expertise to manage the economy. "
Public interest in technocracy peaked in the early 1930s: Technocracy's heyday lasted only from June 16, 1932, when the New York Times became the first influential press organ to report its activities, until January 13, 1933, when Scott, attempting to silence his critics, delivered what some critics called a confusing, and uninspiring address on a well-publicized nationwide radio hookup.
Following Scott's radio address (Hotel Pierre Address), the condemnation of both him and technocracy in general reached a peak. The press and businessmen reacted with ridicule and almost unanimous hostility. The American Engineering Council charged the technocrats with "unprofessional activity, questionable data, and drawing unwarranted conclusions". The technocrats made a believable case for a kind of technological utopia, but their asking price was too high. The idea of political democracy still represented a stronger ideal than technological elitism. In the end, critics believed that the socially desirable goals that technology made possible could be achieved without the sacrifice of existing institutions and values and without incurring the apocalypse that technocracy predicted.
The faction-ridden Continental Committee on Technocracy collapsed in October 1936. However, Technocracy Incorporated continued, adopting distinctive red and grey uniforms for its staff and a fleet of cars in these colors. These features brought the organization under suspicion during World War II. The organization was banned in Canada for several years, but the ban was lifted in 1943.
There were some speaking tours of the USA and Canada in 1946 and 1947, and a motorcade from Los Angeles to Vancouver: Hundreds of cars, trucks, and trailers, all regulation grey, from all over the Pacific Northwest, participated. An old school bus, repainted and retrofitted with sleeping and office facilities, a two-way radio, and a public address system, impressed observers. A huge war surplus searchlight mounted on a truck bed was included, and grey-painted motorcycles acted as parade marshalls. A small grey aircraft, with a Monad symbol on its wings, flew overhead. All this was recorded by the Technocrats on 16-mm 900-foot colour film."
Near as I can figure it, what the Build-a-burgers and folks of that ilk seem to have done is do a kind of roll-up where essentially a lot of Technocracy ideas (we're experts and we're in charge here) was simply taken private.
Oh, and the benefit of "going private" is that the group at the top doesn't need to meet with nuisances like engineering quality issues...nope, just the size of the clout and checkbook.
So, if you want an interesting theory: Technocracy actually won, and actually is in place (notice the word factions which keeps popping up in Clif's work?). Except instead of having engineering and process control at its heart, it has no such core values and gets to be a mish-mash of coordinated global greedsters.
It all evolves into a carefully inbred meritocracy which is very much like TEGWAR (the exciting game without any rules).
Well, except one rule, I suppose: I win, you lose.
The joke? Near as I can figure it, Technocracy (which has some good ideas including energy-based money) has been ripped off by the technoplex.
Readers Writes: Dead Large STUPID National Bank
Ahhh...just as Ures truly expected...tons of similar thinking. Let's start off the comments with this from reader Sue:
"George; I stopped using banks two years ago. Got really hacked at them for the "too big to fail" fiasco. Went to Randolph-Brooks Federal Credit Union. No fees, better interest on savings, and THEY PAY ME to use a check card (debit card) instead of paper checks; amounts to a few dollars every month. And if I DO use a paper check, it is way cheaper than the banks charged. Also, RBFCU does not charge for ATM usage at their ATMs or any credit union in Texas (or military credit union anywhere). I pay bills online, some (like car payments) automatically every month, so I can pay a bill just 24 hours before it is due. I can be anywhere there is cellular coverage and do my banking. Can also deposit a check using my cell phone--take a photo of front and back and voila, it is deposited. No need to go a branch. I could NEVER go back to a bank after using this credit union. Banks are dinosaurs, waiting for the meteor to hit."
If Clif's work is right, then they...well, let's not go there...yet. Next comes a tip I could have used two weeks ago, from reader 9point:
"Hey G, Just got two boxes of checks from www.artisticchecks.com. Total came to $15.85 for 250 checks, shipped. Checks arrived in five days...."
Like I said, that's about $60 bucks late. So was this idea from reader Tim:
"George that's why I print my own. Check stock at Office Depot. 35.00 for 500 and free check printing software..."
Reminds me of the old blonde joke where the punchline is "I can't be out of money...I still have checks..." Nice to get all these savings tips considering I'm now of an age where any order could (potentially) be my last....
Next we have this from reader Hank out on the sunny beaches of Howahyah...
"George, I can beat your wasteful check shipping story. I ordered two nylon, self-inflating, camping style sleeping pads on eBay. Free shipping.
The seller was listed as a local Hawaii outfit, so I figured I would have them via overnight post here in town. No tracking information for the shipment was posted on eBay. After waiting three or four days, I finally got a large, very light box from Amazon.com on the mainland. Inside the box, maybe one-fourth the space was occupied by ONE nylon bedroll. The rest was air pillows... as if there was something breakable here! The packing list also indicated only quantity one. Oh, yes, the shipping was UPS red, second day air from the mainland. Probably cost more to ship than the price of the item.
So I messaged them via eBay to tell them I ordered TWO and only received ONE.
The Reply: "Thank you for your inquiry. This item is stored at our Amazon shipping facility and your order was passed on to be shipped through that method. Both items were shipped to you, however they were in different boxes based on the item you purchased and the delivery location. A second delivery is currently on its way to you."
(Two of the same item.. going to the same address... what's different here??)
So now I await another large box of air pillows cushioning an unbreakable nylon sleeping pad... via UPS red second-day air. Clearly my "local" seller is just a bundling outfit for Amazon.com orders, and they certainly make a commission off the sale. After Amazon sends it the most expensive way possible..twice, I'm quite sure they are giving the merchandise away at a loss.
How Amazon stays in business is beyond me.
Hope you are still airworthy!
Yep...more on that in sec... but I am a huge believer in Amazon Prime for anyone who lives out in the dingletoolies. I may make Brent (the UPS driver) nuts coming out here every couple of days. It really makes life in the Outback like big city living without the noise, filth, panhandlers, traffic, high taxes, pollution, nosy neighbors, crime, invasive homeowners associations, petty bureaucrats in building departments and....and.....
Now, About that Biennial Flight Review
As you might expect, I aced the biennial flight review yesterday as we flew from KPSN-KDKR-KPSN, doing turns along the route, a few stalls, slow flight, and so forth. On the trip down I was within 50-feet of assigned altitude (3,000 MSL) and I had one excursion of 100-feet doing a power-on stall from slow flight.
Landings were fine..a nice full flap short field in 600-feet, or so with a 5-knot quartering crosswind at KDKR. On the return to KPSN we pulled power at the 1000-foot runway marker and landed "on the numbers" with another 600-foot rollout simulating a zero power (engine out) landing.
The Beechcrate flew its usual perfection. We also did some testing of the stall warning indicator which seemed a bit off since our return from maintenance. It's going off at 68, or so while the actual stall speed is around 58 (clean). But in some ways, that's a good thing: Gives more time to react from warning-on.
Reason for all the checking: In the moderate to heavy turbulence coming out of the North Georgia mountains snow showers and 25-knot gusts doing my immitation bush pilot badge back in March, I noticed the stall warning going off with short chirps now and then in the bigger bumps. Still, even that is not a bad thing (yeah, yeah, add half the gust speed to approach speed, yada yada...)
I can't say enough good things about the Microsoft Flight Simulator. It's a great way to fly a lot without pushing a lot of gas through the carburetor (which at $6-something a gallon is a good idea, lol). My three or four times weekly FS sessions include 3, or more, landings in adverse conditions (like nasty crosswinds) and then a long cross country flight till the aircraft runs out of fuel and then I land...wherever in nasty, marginal light and power-out wherever I happen to be.
Flying a power-out approach under instrument conditions in a thunderstorm cell just before total darkness is NOT what I normally do...I'm a risk-averse fair weather flyer.
That said, however, when you set up MSFS on maximum difficulty, real weather updated every 15-minutes enroute, enable gyro drift...well, it's pretty close real if you have a complete FS rig. I use the Cessna 172 in FS since I have probably 70-hours or actual time in one.
Flight Simulator has a pretty good flying course built into it which starts off on small powered hang gliders and moves up through various levels of complexity.
I know...what's the payback on the $315 in such a rig? Well, just in the last two weeks I have flown 34-hours, done 35-landings, and done 10.7 hours of instrument flying. The Beech burns about $60/flight hour of fuel, so that's $2,040 just in fuel savings, not counting $15 per hour for engine maintenance reserves, not counting travel time to the airport. And then there'd be a flight instructor for the 11-hours of instrument time, so another $450 there, call it.
I figure to fly about $61,000 worth of sim time this year while the actual airplane time will be about 150-hours. Bottom line for me? It's a great way to keep "sharp" on skills even if it's not an approved flight training device.
Those (like the new Redbird Jay series) look to be in about the $2,500 class for now, but even so, if you're flying $60,000 year worth of time there might be some payback to logging in on an approved device.
Oh, one reason the Jay might make sense? I can "game" MSFS to actually do 34-hours of flying in the FS logbook by putting in about 6-hours total time on the controls. All you do is climb out, get stable at altitude (10,000 feet, say) and then jam the simulation rate to "fastest".
Well, now...that let's me fly 4-5 hours of log time with only 35-minutes at the computer...and that's the kind of gaming the system you can't do with an approved device (presumably).
I sure wish MSFT would come out with a compliant version of FSXI which would qualify for loggable time. As is, it's just a great safety tool.
On the other hand, I'm not sure how user-configurable the Jay is: For example, all the publicity shots show it with a "glass panel" which is nice if you really have an airplane with $20,000 navigation suite upgrades. Although we will likely add synthetic vision/AHRS to our WAAS and ADSB enabled iFly 720 Aviation GPS (yoke-mounted) I'm still a "steam gauges" and Morse Code kinda guy...I like the discrete panel do-hickies.
The most important way we use the flight sim continues to be "pre-flying" every variation of our upcoming trips well in advance. (Dual monitors are really nice and give it a good bit more airplane "feel" to it.) The FScene software is a modest improvement in close-to-ground textures and visuals that seems to be a worthwhile add-on. I've held back on spending the $300 for full-country high resolutioin satellite derived imagery, but even that's still got a hell of a good return on it.
Once I get the medical done today, my next focus will be preflying everything from Texas to Connecticut to Edmonton, Alberta, back over through British Columbia, a short stop possibly in southern Alaska (for bragging in the logbook) then down into the Seattle areas and wandering back toward home again. We'll see how the budget goes.
And if the X-class flares to come don't set off the tsunami and following GCE chain of events after the quake(s). I'll be the guy flying the pattern once a month and tending tomatoes, squash, and my brocolli in the garden...
Monday May 13, 2013
Reader Note: This morning's post is being posted a bit earlier than normal so I can get down to the airport for my biennial flight review.
Beware the Ides of May
Who's behind the shootings in America and what the heck is their agenda? We need to have a discussion about the 148-day death cycle in news reports.
Not to start off on the whacko side of things, but let's run through the facts in the wake of that Mother's Day shooting down in New Orleans which wounded 19 people, shall we?
If you're beginning to get the sense of a "news/death cycle" congratulations. To be sure, it's not a perfect study because some of the actual events were a day, or so off. But, in terms of impacting the American mindset and being in the MSM at the time, I think the links are pretty convincing. You might argue the point on the listeria story, which admittedly was a date range event, but the link makes the case about a cycle in news coverage.
The research problem is clear: Is this a spontaneously arising underlying current in news, or what? Your guess may be as good as mine.
With a plus or minus one day latitude, we could take other date spreads, like 72 days or whatever, and possibly come up with similar results. Or not..,.YMMV.
I've mentioned two things that I'd bet a nickel on at this point: When the purported perp is penned, seems to me the odds are pretty damn high that we will find it to involve some psychoactive medications.
Oh, and the second thing? This is a roughly 148 day "violence cycle" which means we can have the Kleenex ready about October 7th this fall.
Know what else happens then? Believe me, this is oddly timed:
"The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that the redesigned $100 note will begin circulating on October 8, 2013. This note, which incorporates new security features such as a blue, 3-D security ribbon, will be easier for the public to authenticate but more difficult for counterfeiters to replicate. The new design for the $100 note was unveiled in 2010, but its introduction was postponed following an unexpected production delay."
Another curious thing (which circles back to the second gunman theory at Newtown which is persistent on the net) and that is there were pretty clearly two gunmen involved in New Orleans. Call me a natural-born skeptic, and all, but I wouldn't be surprised if police find one suspect with the additional shots heard being passed off as echoes, or some such.
As usual, though, time will tell, eh?
Waiting on Data
Markets may open down a bit as we wait for the Ides of May to present us with a whole slug of economic data this week. The biggies will be Wednesday when both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index will be released.
This is always fun to watch because our grocery bills here are up 8-10% compared with year ago levels. Naturally, we don't hedonically adjust our eating habits like statisticians do when calculating general price levels.
There is one bit of news this morning: The retail sales report...
"The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $419.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.3%)* from the previous month, and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above April 2012. Total sales for the February through April 2013 period were up 3.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2013 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.5 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* from March 2013 and 3.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 15.4 percent (±2.0) from April 2012 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 8.8 percent (±2.0) from last year."
What makes retail interesting is that based on the most recent Fed Consumer Debt report, we would have expected just what we saw: The auto industry is the only thing holding the economy together: When you back out inflation, there's been no change in overall spending and indeed, general merchandise is upside down year-on-year:
Departments & Entities
IRS in Hot Water
The Inspector General of the IRS says that nonprofit groups which were critical of the government and sought to raise public awareness of the Constitution were, indeed, targeted by IRS.
Top republicorps are coming out on behalf of the Tea Party, one of the main victims of the probing...and says it amounts to a chilling form of intimidation.
Meantime, the House Ways and Means committee is demanding IRS produce documents by day after tomorrow.
War in the Wings
Since the Israeli attacks on Syria, the tension in language have been picking up with the Syrians now saying they will go into the Golan Heights area at will because it's their land.
Sharif is a wealthy industrialist, which is a good thing: Many observers of southwest Asia have worried long and hard about the potential for a flash-over war between Pakistan and India over tensions in Kashmir. People who are wealthy industrialists in growing economies don't tend to start wars....we hope!
Doesn't mean the country will be moving up our tourism list any time soon, however. 6 killed and 45 injured in a suicide attack by extremists this morning.
As I told Peoplenomics readers this weekend about quakes, when we look at the USGS data over time (since 1963) you can see the odds of a 7.0 quake have more than doubled since the mid 1980s...
Oh, but nothing to worry about, right? Nothing out of the ordinary on a quick look at the USGS server this morning...so far.
We did have an X-class solar flare this morning:
"PRESTO ALERT: An X1.7 flare occurred, with peak at 02:17 UT. The source region is located behind the east limb. An associated CME occurred but it's not expected to arrive to the Earth. "
Which may set up flaring when the sun turns our way with the source...which might be in time for our mega quake and global coastal event jitters window which opens this coming Saturday.
But we shall see...
Mexico is raising the alert level for the Popocatepetl volcano. So we have several going including the watch for Mount Cleveland and the Mayon volcano in the Philippines which is still sputtering.
Oh, yeah, on tsunami showing up in language, reader Holly spied this:
"Hi George, Saw another tsunami reference on CBS news tonight. It was about the lake ice tsunami moving into a lakeshore town in Minnesota....
Why Read it NOW?
From our news analyst chap up in Winnipeg, we have an eye opener:
"Dear Mr. Ure, A BBC article dated August 30, 2011 concerning Earth's magnetic field is trending in the top 10 currently most read at May 12, 2013. "
Yeah...that's kind of weird.
Not as weird as Grady (chief s/w guru for our www.nostracodeus.com software project) spotting the word "circuit" popping up out of the blue in his runs against news sites over the weekend.
Last time I checked the number of global deaths from the new flu is at 33, but on Sunday the World Health Organization released this:
"The Ministry of Social Affairs and Health in France has informed WHO of an additional laboratory-confirmed case with infection of the novel coronavirus (NCoV). This patient was identified as part of the epidemiological investigation initiated by the French authorities, following laboratory confirmation of the first case on 7 May 2013. The patient shared a hospital room in Valenciennes with the first laboratory-confirmed patient from 27 to 29 April 2013. The patient is currently hospitalized and isolated in an infectious disease hospital. "
They go on to report 120 cases have been identified in France so far.
EPA Killing Bees?
Gotta love how the corporate influencers are working this: A chemical being banned in Europe for killing bees is being approved for use here in the USA. You tell me there's clean hands all around on this one...
Coping: Dear Large, STUPID, National Bank
Dear Large, Stupid, National Bank (LSNB),
I don't know if ya'll suffer from Banker Birth Syndrome, also known as Banker BS, but I really think you seriously underestimate the mental capabilities of the American public.
Here's the deal: A week or so back I ordered checks from ya'll. Today they showed up in two...count them (you may need the audit committee to help out) TWO boxes.
Neither box was full.
In fact, both boxes were only about one-third full.
Now, seeing as I am (nominally) a tree farmer, consultant, and green-guy who runs a solar-powered home office, I decided to fit the contents of two boxes into one. Ready? No squishing or anything...just dropped the whole contents of Box #2 into Box #1. Snapped picture:
Now, I want you to notice that there is a good 1/4"...and if I press down at all, 3/4" of space in just one box.
Honest to God, I don't know if you people sit in your glass towers and smoke crack all day or if you seriously don't comprehend the simple fact that a large chunk of Americans are pissed at bankers who charge hellacious check printing fees and then turn around and want us to bail out stupidity.
I figure the hard costs of the check printing (240) and mailing are really about $8. I know what the Post Office charges. So how come the bill for this will be about $60-bucks? I can see a 4X markup but a 7 or 8 multiplier? Jeez Louise..why not include a KY sample, huh?
Yet here's proof positive of why Americans don't trust large national banks: (It’s a shocker) because if they really knew dick about finance, none of them would ever need bailing out, would they? This kind of half-witted waste galls me.
Pardon me for putting bankster-human relations into a slide first thing this morning but besides not paying crap for interest rates, even though you're effectively getting free money from the Fed, while selling of REO to cronies who bundle it to China, don't you think that this just a bit over the top even in the bankster scam of mindless exploitation of the public department?
Hell, think of the trees you could save in the process!
A 37-year Big Bank customer who's fed up with big bank bullshit and waste and who's sharpening his pitchfork for the next time bailouts get mentioned, which he reckons will be within the next 18-month, or less. Sooner the way ya'll treat customers.
NO GCE Worries
A reader out in Aridzona may be right...no global coastal event and something else is going on: memeering...
"Greetings from Sedona! I have never written about dreams before but this one seems especially relevant....In this dream I am somewhere and nowhere in particular..and a beam of information downloads into my crown chakra...message in essence being that there will be no global coastal events or meteor impact catastrophes on the scale predicted...AND that the "populist seers" have all been deliberately deceived for the express purpose of totally discrediting all of them... as "those who cry wolf" ...and this has been orchestrated by some non-human control agenda machine...for unknown reasons... "
Makes send to me...yup...seed the news and language and web discussion groups just right and presto! Self-eliminating problem.
Which is why I continue to be a bad-ass prepper but at the same time I'm still making plans to attend my Columnists.com convention come the end of June up in Hartford...
My point? Life's a LOT like golf. Sometimes it lands in the rough, sometimes on the fairway. Either way, you just line up and take the next shot...
Something to Worry About
Now that we have had our fun for this morning, here's something to worry about: This weekend there was an emergency space walk at the International Space Station to find ammonia leaks. And, with a cover of the David Bowie son, (ground control to Major Tom) we notice commander Chris Hadfield (from Canada) will be coming down tonight in a Russian spacecraft.
I assume you have followed enough of the Remote Viewing buzz to know that the "solar kill shot" is due shortly after an "emergency return of crew" from the ISS?
Well, here's what has me worrying a hole in my worry stone: The departure of Hadfield is getting a lot of press, there is lots of fill on the space station emergency language. The sun is due to roll around a source which just popped off an x-class flare, and we get our Big Quake linguistically between now and May 26th, or possibly as late and June 1.
So the worry is: Has the spacewalk and the Hadfield coverage met temporal "fill" linguistically to put all the pieces in place for the Kill Shot from the sun?
And if not, what the hell did the word "circuit" have to go showing up in one of Grady's Nostracodeus runs this weekend, for?
If you want to expand your thinking a bit, this might be a good week to go read up on the March 1989 geomagnetic storm which might be worth knowing about...just in case, mind you.
Off to the airport...more tomorrow...same time, same website...
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest. Just so in your world perhaps, but not in mine..
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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