This economy is a what?
Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news
Updated: Friday July 25, 2008 07:55 CDT
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Reader Advisory: Due to pressing client projects (I do real work besides writing this site), there won't be a free update on Saturday. However, the Peoplenomics report this weekend will cover two topics: On a practical level, we'll go over 'grab-and-go bags' and what to have in them, and on a more etheric level, in a second section we'll look at the economic impact of possible future contact with civilizations not-of-earth in a section called "Alienomics". Why we wouldn't be shorting Boeing just yet...
Our Very Durable Delusions
Latest from the Census Bureau:
OK, let's do a little math here...because the MSM isn't going to point this out so I will:
Defense spending was up $1.5 Billion Durable Goods overall was up $1.6 Billion. Back out spending on the Bush Wars and Durable goods would be what? Flat! Now, get out there and wage something...without the wars, the economy would truly suck. That tees up our next story...
Markets: A Little Reality Intrudes
The report that the National Bank of Australia will write off 90% of its US conduit loans might cause a few folks on Wall Street to hit the Tums (or Jack) a bit earlier than usual today. Of course, if you've been following this site for very long, you probably have already figured that the Home Loan Bubble is only the first to let go, and that there's likely an equally big bubble left to pop with collateralized debt obligations (bundled credit cards and such) start letting go, although it will be a quieter mess because it's less publicly reported.
But, I figure that's still to come this fall when the Mother Of All Crashes (MOAC) looks possible in October, which I figure will be timed to coincide with some kind of next (and orders of magnitude more terrible) next "terror" event.
But we don't need to wait for fall to see terror right up close and personal. Nope: RealtyTrac reports that foreclosures are up an amazing 121% compared with the same period a year ago. Here's their press release:
Housing starts is due out at 10. I hope both of them got started...
That'll Fix It
We can't help but notice that a newspaper in Iran has been banned over its economic reporting. Since the SEC's imposition of martial law with (17) bank stocks, we figure it will only be a matter of time until reporting anything but happy-talk about US markets will be in the works, such is the nature of controlled markets. Pointing out the emperor's clothing in any country is not acceptable of late.
Several readers have pointed out that the SEC rules on naked short selling have been on the books since the 1930's (T+3 rule) or more recently regulation SHO, and more than a few are asking "Why just these stocks?" TA possible answer is this has more to do with the size of campaign checks from fat-cat hedge funds and less to do with the even-handed administration of law, but I can only guess.
Nevertheless,. we continue to hear stories about inter-market arb'ing where a commodity (say silver?) might be bought or sold on the COMEX with and offsetting trade made in a stock (or more likely ETF). If there's an area for any new super-agency/ "Uber Regulator" to look for abuse, this might be one...
A Qantas flight dropped 20-thousand feet after a cargo door failed after take-off from Hong Kong. Reports sound as though crew handled it textbook -- well done.
A lot of rural schools around the country are considering four-day school weeks to make up for the high cost of gas - which is pushing up school bus costs. In some states there could be issues because of laws which require so many "school-days". Also puts a crunch on school bus drivers who often have to work several jobs to make ends meet - the change of hours could hurt. But, with gas prices up, what's a rural district to do? Shorter school year anyone? Rural home schooling programs, perhaps?
The Universe sometimes presents symmetry if you go looking for it. Take for example, the headline that "Oil spill closes 80 miles of the Mississippi River" from New Orleans to the Gulf after more than 400,000 gallons of fuel oil leaked from a Liberian flagged oil tanker. Think 'restrictions on travel' here.
On the other hand, "California adopts stiff pollution rules for ships" to the chagrin of the shipping industry.
Although there will almost certainly be fines and legal action involved, we note the cost of the fuel oil spill is over a million dollars at the wholesale level. So, seems to me that industry has an economic incentive right there to be careful...that's a fair chunk of change to see flushed out into the Gulf.
Speaking of which... we get to the news about the health of the Gulf of Mexico itself. A report out today says the "dead zone' there due to pollution and such, could hit a record of more than 8,800 square miles - a big chunk of water.
Here's An Idea!
Say...with word that a senate committee heard appeals yesterday for a federal task force to combat polygamist sects, I have an idea! Let's make sure that Senator John Edwards is on the panel...yeah, dat's dah ticket..
Them Winds: Tornado in New Hampshire?
A deadly storm hit New Hampshire this week, but I don't recall New Hampshire as being prone to tornados, do you?
Pork and Corn
"Agribusiness Group forms to protect Ethanol Subsidies." Why companies like ADM, Monsanto, DuPont and Deere need tax-money to move into ethanol is just beyond me. Isn't that what capital markets are for? Meantime, the price of food - especially corn-finished beef - is being bid up by - you'll love this - our own tax dollars! Is this a marvelous country, or what?
I'm serious as a heart attack here: ADM's gross profit for the past 12 months is $3.24 billion, Monsanto's was $4.29 billion, put DuPont down for $9.09 billion, and Deere did $7.83 billion gross profit.
I must be 24-kinds of stoopid (sic) to want to see companies with a combined gross profits (ttm basis) in excess of $24 billion dollars start sucking off our hard-earned income taxes. Send them to the capital markets! If ethanol makes sense, let the free markets do their job!
Who are these dopes in Washington who aren't getting it? Socialize losses, underwrite the rich, and privatize profits. No different than communists back when, except instead of a dacha, there's Vail trips and use of corpgov jets. Oh...did I forget something? Campaign contributions for the incumbent recipients...OMG...how foolish of me... forget I mentioned this.
Do As We Say Department
California's "Yacht Party" is in trouble because they're being called out over the tax loophole that lets the super-rich keep their private yachts and jets free of taxes... Remind us not to leave our Gulfstream in the Golden State too long...
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Coping: Who's Surfing?
In a report out today "China says has more people surfing the Web than US". Ah...this is only on gross numbers - not percentage-wise. All those computers at people's offices? I figure the amount of lost productivity due to corporate web surfing is easily into the billions, which is why more and more corporations have installed net nannies to keep workers focused. Now, get back to work.
Keep an eye on the battle by the Bushistas' Labor Department to put in rules which will allow industry to avoid compliance with righter workplace toxic chemical exposure rules. The Labor Department has so far refused to release the rules publicly which a thoughtful person could take as a big RED FLAG.
Say, this isn't key fund-raising time, is it?...naw...there I go again...
If you don't know the difference when a woman refers to her "Ask me out boots" or her "ignore me boots", time to sign up for the Urban Dictionary's daily word. They do a major public service. Not only can I use hep abbreviations, but I can almost understand my kids. Almost...not quite...almost....
A good set of pictures of "Ancient Egyptian Flying Vehicles" might be an interesting diversion if you're sick of too much financial reality.
Since former Astronaut Edgar Mitchell's 'outing' of alien contact this week, several people have sent me notes like this one:
Hmmm...OK, on the reading list...
Better than Bowser?
"BigDog" the "most advanced quadruped on earth" looks like just the ticket if you're tired of feeding the dogs... No more Milk Bones...just top off the hydraulic fluid and....
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Forecasting the "Fall"
I'm not going to beat around the bush on this: The numbers are horrific. But, step by step, I show you this week how I arrive at the most painful financial conclusion I've ever reached: If your 401(k) has retained even half its value by the end of this year, you will be doing very, very well, compared to most. If you're thinking "Gee, wonder if that means a Dow under 9,000?" You may be horrified how far under. Plus, a few more thoughts on PCP (personal contingency planning) for October.
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"Live on $10,000" Updated
There's now a single-page website devoted to my little ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year (or less) at www.liveontenthousand.com. Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it.
Thursday July 24, 2008
Bigger than Money?
Astronaut Mitchell: "We've Been Visited"
Yes, it's a bit far afield for an economics-oriented site, but the prospect of aliens visiting earth is a mind/paradigm altering thing, which if I were to make a wild guess, has the possibility of influencing our future is some pretty amazing ways. So, with this in mind you have got to hear this interview: Apollo Astronaut Edgar Mitchell, the 6th man to walk on the moon, has a bit of a bombshell: He says earth has been visited by off-planet beings; something that's been covered up for 60 years.
"There's quite a bit of contact going on..." "...the Roswell crash was real..."
On disclosure: "...the amount of disinformation...seems to be decreasing..."
On his personal safety for going public "...I don't think they're knocking people off for that anymore..."
"...if they were hostile, we'd be gone by now..."
No doubt my inbox will be flooded with the usual "you're losing credibility by reporting this stuff.." and other responses that will go to the heart of denial, but is what Edgar Mitchell says is true, your government and mine has been lying to us for 60-years about what's arguably the biggest story in recorded history - off planet contact.
No, I'm not saying it's so - please don't confuse the messenger with the message on this stuff. There are lots of possibilities, not the least of which was outlined in "A Report from Iron Mountain on the accessibility and desirability of peace" that creation and disclosure of 'aliens' would be a dandy population control mechanism. On the other hand, if what Mitchell says is true, then government has been lying - and that brings up the question "What else might they be lying about?"
The pictures that come in are pretty much continuous. A reader sent some which were taken up in the Sedona Arizona area several weeks back. But, having misplaced those, it's not like you can't find plenty of pictures of them. Like this set from Australia.
Was the Russian crash of a UFO in 1969 real? Or, was it a crash of back-engineered technology?
I haven't made up my mind on the topic yet, but as usual, we'll try to sort through what 'facts' can be distinguished and Mitchell's claims might be considered another significant step on the road to disclosure. OK, now back to the field of economics....
The History of "Blaming Speculators"
It has become vogue, for the umpteenth time, for the Federal Reserve and Treasury to set about blaming "speculators" that what which ails us in the markets. This morning, I'm please to serve up some serious brainfood about this 'rush to blame" business, in the form of a research note my friend Jim Goulding authored and sent out to clients of GH Traders, LLC, and was kind enough to give me permission to post here.
If you're wondering why so much emphasis on the history of blaming speculators, let me next direct you to the current outcry for a convenient scapegoat on which to blame almost all problems of the day, whether it's the ills of mismanaged banks that over-levered, or oil prices that went up too fast for political comfort, or food prices which are going up at double-digit rates. Consider these:
Make a note on your calendar somewhere that what we're seeing here may very well be a prequel to a bigger economic decline to come this fall, and with that will come a major increase in blame. If history is any guide, the liquidity-providing "speculator" will again take the heat.
Ron Paul on Housing Bill
Ron Paul's latest video on the housing bill is out - his outlook for the dollar sinks. With reason...
One headline says the "Arctic may hold 90-billion barrels of oil, US says". While that's almost encouraging on the surface, further reading finds "Arctic's oil could meet world demand for 3-years."
The world's #1 automaker is now Toyota. Ohhh, what a felling, eh?
Slate headlines "Why the press is ignoring the Edwards "Love Child" story" and then follows with "A double standard is at work".
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Coping: Bank Problems on the Web?
The headline "Potentially serious security flaws found in most bank websites, including large bank sites, study finds" has us a little concerned.
Count Your Money
A Florida bank may be in hot water after a couple claims the bank gave them 10- counterfeit $100 bills. Makes you want to carry one of those 'detection pens' around, but we haven't bought any of 'em because isn't it illegal to deface currency?
Food Inflation Coming
"Fertilizer prices increase 235% over part year" says mongabay.com. Say, you don't think that will increase food prices now, do you?
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Around the Ranch: Refrigerator Accounting, 'Dillos
Somewhere along the way, head down into client projects and oblivious to everything but small arms fire and explosions, I wandered into the house last night only to discover that Elaine had been shopping and somewhere in the process of putting things into the pantry, fridge, and so on, she had discovered something that didn't meet with her approval.
"The first thing opened goes from the back to the front!" she announced a bit sternly. The capers or cottage cheese must have ratted me out - the cottage cheese most likely, as we have a his & hers brand of that. OK.
FIFO - first in, first out - in accounting terms. But it reminded me to mention to you how far we've gone in product development and 'add-ons' for the kitchen. Being simple folks, we don't even keep a thermometer in the fridge. If we did, I'm not sure there would be too much point to it as the Kelvinator engineers probably had some idea what they were doing.
But then again, maybe not: I pondered the problem of butter: First putting it in its own dish, then putting it into a fridge, then putting it into a semi-heated part of the fridge so it would be maintained useable, yet not venturing over to rancid.
But beyond basic design issues like this one, there are now scads of ways to 'accessorize' your fridge. There are timers, like the 'DaysAgo' food timer, "Atomic Food Containers", special high-powered magnets, and it's given me my latest 'million dollar idea to share: "www.refrigeratoraccessories.net". The dot com is taken, so you may want to move quickly with this exciting, high growth opportunity.
On the way to feed the goats last night, Elaine spotted a baby armadillo - couldn't have been but 10 - 12 inches long (including tail) wandering towards us. They are apparently quite blind, as our path took us to within about 20 feet of it. Undisturbed, he just continued with his routine of snout stuffing into the ground, looking for worms, larvae, and whatever else armadillos eat.
We've got a couple of places in the yard that the 'dillos seem to favor, one being between the house and the shop/office building where there are nightly snout marks where this worm of that has met its end.
There are two schools of thought about how to deal with visiting 'dillos. One is to dispatch them back to the Almighty with a round from whatever part of the arsenal's handy. The other says they're just looking for food - like the rest of animals on earth - and just because they don't have hedge funds, don't have to lease a car, or accessorize a refrigerator to get food, is no reason to send them off to Perdition.
Eventually, Pusscilla the fearless female huntress cat noticed the baby 'dillo and chased if off into the woods, where I can only presume the 'dillo went into its defensive ball shape, because the cats came back in 3-minutes or less looking frustrated. The black cat Zeus had gone along to see what Puss was all worked up about, never one to miss horning in on a meal, should there be one.
To be sure, 'dillos are not without risk, especially in more densely populated areas - so much so that there are armadillo control specialists. Partly because they can harbor the bacterium that is linked to leprosy, and partly because they carry rabies, and mostly because they can infest human dwellings.
For now, this one is safe...likely just wandering through. Besides, I reckon humans are far more dangerous than armadillos. While we don't carry leprosy bacterium or rabies, our preoccupation with war, charging interest on money, and stripping the planet bare of resources while poisoning it along the way, make us the far more dangerous species.
So this one walked, or waddles is closer to it, but with a stern warning not to eye the house or shop for winter quarters. My sense of balance only goes so far.
Wednesday July 23, 2008
Mass Layoffs Trending Up
New figures out from the Labor Department this morning. My chart shows that mass layoffs are continuing an upward trend...:
"Brimstone" then Fire?
The reports continue to come in about a massive naval readiness exercise off the US East Coast called "Brimstone". This might suggest that an attack on Iran could happen before the November elections. Concurrently, there's an attack on the precious metals - not unusual around delivery time, but nevertheless driving prices down which would be convenient for those who wish to acquire the traditional safe haven metal before the outbreak of hostilities this fall.
Just as I saw the departure of Admiral William Fallon as an indicator that the neocons within the Bush administration had arranged to do a little 'personnel house cleaning' to remove any who might voice opposition to a pre-emptive strike on Iran, two US aircraft carriers which become my next 'canary in the coalmine' on the road to Tehran.
That first of these ships is the USS Kitty Hawk. After first being reported ready for decommissioning after its 47-year term in service to Country, we're now reading how CV-63 is currently participating in the Rim of the Pacific exercise, on the ship's home page.
Latest speculation is that the Kitty Hawk will report for decommissioning in the January-February timeframe, an event delayed by a shipboard fire aboard her replacement - and the other carrier to watch - the USS George Washington, CVN-73 in San Diego.
The hand-off of duties from the outgoing Kitty Hawk to the George Washington was delayed by a fire aboard the George Washington while in San Diego in May. The ship has been undergoing repairs there, and judging by the length of time involved, the fire damage was substantial. That said, the ship is due to head out for Japan likely in mid-September according to reports, and arrive there before the end of the month.
Thus, an observer might be tempted to closely watch the George Washington's movements, as its arrival in the Western Pacific would put the Pacific at full strength and most current technology; something that would be desirable prior to beginning a 'next war'.
This the spills over into market expectations, too, as this would seem to 'clear the decks' of major military action for another month, giving oil a chance to roll down to perhaps as low as $100 - $120 a barrel, gold to sink further, and perhaps into the $800's before investors figure out that much higher oil prices ($300-$500) might follow a pre-emptive strike on Iran, which would doubtless call upon OPEC to react to a Western first strike.
No, it's not a 'cast in stone' outlook. It's just a libretto - a possible playbook - for what may happen this fall. We can already safely assume that Iran has been 'playing for time' in most all of its nuclear talks with the West, so this morning's headline in the Chinese media that "Iran not to make concessions in nuclear rights" should come as no surprise to anyone.
The Bush administration, say reports, continues to look at Iran and North Korea as an 'axis of evil' and the handoff of duties from CV 63 to CVN 73 could be seen as a deterrent to North Korea embarking on military adventurism to test America's ability to fight multiple simultaneous conflicts, especially while the West is downloading Brimstone and fire on an adversarial oil-rich objective. It might also free the CV 63 up for one last bit of action in the Gulf in, say, early October?
Meantime, no doubt Iran's leadership is trying to sort through headlines that "Obama reaffirms his 'abiding commitment' to Israel" and wondering that that means...
Meantime, the report that Russia is thinking about flying long-range bombers out of Cuba has US strategic thinkers angered. That would be crossing a line they figure, yet somehow I don't see anyone linking this to our efforts to put missile systems next to Russia in Eastern Europe and what about all our nukes in Europe? Tisk, tisk...have we forgotten about the balance of terror and other MAD policies? Besides, global thermonuclear war could be useful as I'll explain in a moment, but first check this out:
While the National Geographic Channel had a really good piece on last night about what Six Degrees of warming could do to this old rock, there's another side (as always) and that's found over at Global Research today under the headline "What Global Warming?"
OK, so here's a great movie or book plot for you: Fast forward to a time when global warming starts to seriously threaten the whole population of earth and a meeting of policy makers (or one of those build a burger clubs) where the issue is debated whether to have an 'earth-saving nuclear war."
The debate would center on how nuclear winter could be used to save the planet from global warming. Why, except for all the dead people that would be laying around, and the radiation release, and so forth, it's really quite workable. There: You have questions -- we have answers!
Just call me George Stranglove....
The Runs: Edwards Out?
While we certainly have no way of knowing whether the headline "Sen. John Edwards caught with mistress and love child" has any validity, such headlines would seem to reduce his chances of being named a VP candidate, don't you suppose?
Edwards was reportedly on Obama's 'short-list' of VP candidates along with former senator Sam Nunn. Not to sound overly conspiratorial here, but you don't suppose adverse media will befall all the VP hopefuls until the list gets down to her do you?
Our million dollar question of the morning is "Whop tipped off the paper?"
Only about 5% of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in by Hurricane Dolly, and most think the impact of the storm will be short-lived. Warnings are up from Brownsville to Corpus Christi, and at the present speed, it should make landfall this afternoon. The lower Rio Grande valley looks to get soaked. Hopefully, we'll get some rain up this way.
Our little rally down on Wall Street continues to play out with another higher open expected today. Not that the financial headlines support such cheerfulness:
But it's not all doom and gloom due to real estate. A Los Angeles condo has been sold for a cool $47-million, which the LA Times pencils out to $2,848 per square foot. Those poor folks in Gollywood.
Existing home sales due out Thursday and Durable goods Friday, but no, not too much moving the market in the meantime - rally on...
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Coping: What's Bee Happening?
So, is bee colony collapse disorder just a mass beeicide event or an evil fungus?
Nope: Plain old pesticide, turns out. Clothianadid made by Bayer is the number one suspect suspect, so much so France has banned it. Meantime, in North Dakota, a major lawsuit has been filed against the company for the 1995 dieoff of bees in that state allegedly caused by spraying of Imidacloprid...
Now here's the interesting part: There's a near dead silence about this in the MSM. So, ask yourself, why isn't this the lead story on nightly news? Why is the MSM dummying up on this instead of splashing it around like the Love Canal story before the corpgov takeover of newsrooms?
Say, you don't suppose it has anything to do with the all-to-cozy relationship between the MSM and corpgov, we bee askin....
Another "Sure-Fire" Trading System
No, I don't endorse this, but the inventor of the Sham-poo trading indicator has another one to play with...
I'm just waiting for the SEC 'can't short 'em" rules to be extended to all stocks - why we could have a blow-off top inside 2-weeks with that one move alone, LOL.
Road Warrior's Budget
Here's a good one if you do any amount of traveling...
From Mr. Ure's personal experience, I can also tell you that if you like a cold martini, you can save a bundle by picking up a pint of gin for a few bucks at the local liquor dispensary and some olives at the closest Safeway. With one of those small fridges in the room, and all the free ice from the machines, you can have several evenings of 'martins' usually for less than the price of a single at the hotel bar downstairs and for sure cheaper than room service. Works with beer and wine as well...
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Around the Ranch: 2-Minute Timer
If you thought I was busy before, ha! You ain't seen nothing yet. The next couple of weeks, the free columns may be a bit shorter than usual as I'm up to my (guess what) in work demands. The long leisurely shower is down to 3-minutes and the 3-minute egg timer for calls is down to 2-minutes.
I expect to catch up this morning on a couple of new subscribers to the newsletter, and the cats have been lounging around in their favorite cool spots as the weather has been on the hottish side the past week, with a couple of adventures to the 100 degree mark. The new air conditioning system has been working like a charm, though.
Tuesday July 22, 2009
Headlines and Headaches
Pull out the Excedrin for some of this morning's: "Commercial bankruptcies soar, reflecting widening economic woes." NSS
"Wachovia has $8.9 B loss, cuts 6,350 jobs, dividend", and oh, let's shut down the mortgage unit, too...
And in case you missed it, Treasury Secretary Prank Paulson was talking on the financial channels Monday about the "Strong Dollar Policy" which we've filed next to our "Easter Bunnies are real policy." You're not expected to figure out that a policy that essentially says "Free money is good for America" is bonkers.
War Department: Soon
"Senior Israeli Official: If nuclear talks fail, Bush will order Iran attach between November and January." While we'd like to think it will be put on the back burner for that long, the odds seem to favor before elections once the republicorps and the neocons figure they really are unelectable. Once that's out, why wait?
And The Next War Is?
Cambodia versus Thailand? Too many Thai restaurants, and not enough Cambodia? Nope, in part it's over a disputed temple. Say, that rings a bell (pun intended)...where have I see that before...Hmmm....
You Know The World is Crazy When...
"Sixteen wounded in copycat bulldozer attack in Jerusalem." Background checks for D9 drivers coming next?
The Runs: Who?
The meetings of John McCain with potential VP candidates continue. Having met with Rudy Giuliani, he reportedly will meet with Bobby Jindal. Who? Governor of Lose-iana.
My inbox is already overflowing with campaign nonsense. The republicorps are sending out "Change? That's all you'll have left.." notes while others are taking shots are McCain's too close to Mexico stance with "Juan McCain" stickers. Can we get this over with?
Meantime, no one is talking about the real issues - like how many of the 50-million illegals in this country (30-million from Mexico, more when youi count OTM's) bought houses and keep the housing bubble afloat and that explains why the republicorps kept that bubble going, or why major corporations are giving million dollar checks to both presumed candidates. But those are inconvenient questions, best left for a more thoughtful time. 2013 maybe?
I don't know if they borrowed my headline from yesterday, but the Drudge Report is using the "Hello Dolly" headline today. It's either 'great minds think alike' or call my IP guy...
For several days, I've been pondering why there might be half a million coffins in Georgia. (see video). And then it dawns on me: Evil's afoot...
A great collection of inconvenient facts in an Australian op-ed piece. Samples:
I can hardly wait to see the hate mail for noting this one...
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Coping: What Heresy this?
A reader sends this:
Dangerous, seditious thought. No slackers, not here in the corpgov worker's paradise! Yikes! I'll never be able to fly again, LOL...
Amex cardholders are reportedly getting cards that include this notice that Lines of Credit are being reined in:
Also, reportedly the Line of Credit Insurance Policy will not longer operate on the Line of Credit Accounts.
Several readers have sent in curious tales about coffee houses, like this one:
Ah! But, it's tough running a global empire of coffee shops and keeping it alive. After all, the barriers to entry are little more than two Folger's Singles and a pot of hot water, plus plenty of signage. Our Singapore Slinger - formerly the Houston Bureau - reports from the Far East:
If it's true the SBUX is charging a heftiy logon fee, then it will definitely upset the war drivers. If you don't know what wardriving is, it's the art/science/sport of driving around and finding wifi hotspots and logging on from them, sending malicious emails from them and so forth. It's a whole new level of cat and mouse game for "authority" and humans, and sites like www.wadriving.com report the latest developments. (link) Think 4G warfare...
A new cooker that cooks food using your car's exhaust system. It gets better...car steamed salmon video ala Yaris exhaust manifold...
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Monday July 21, 2008
If You Think It's Bad Now...
We're now inside the 90-day window to what I expect will be the "Fall in the Fall" of the markets for any number of reasons. The first, which was explained to Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend, is that the present behavior of our proprietary "Aggregate Index" is showing a very clear 'parallel price channel' which has evolved since the market topped out a few months (and several thousand points) back. The chart is at the bottom of this page if you want to see it -- click here. Based on how it's acting, I put a 'fall low' range and 'best guess' as to where the indices could fall before Christmas along with a dart on the Dow.
The Aggregate hitting the bottom of ther PPC just happened to coincide with Robin Landry's getting his managed accounts out of shorts, and into a week of longs. They're going back to neutral or short now, I hear.
If you're wondering "Hmmm...what was George's guess about the Dow?" The choices are a) either ante up the $40 a year for a subscription, or b) Just assume it's not pleasant and go about your day knowing what the headlines are already screaming, which is "Things are not right!"
"What headlines might those be?"
Fair question. Lemme see... ah! Here we go: "Recession next year: forecaster says things can only get worse". Strangely, the UK's Independent is not writing about me...someone else sees it, too.
A cross-town rival of their is the Telegraph, where Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes that "The Global economy is at the point of maximum danger". I'd fear it's a bigger danger than running out of coffee on Monday morning.
And, if you're still a "doubting Thomas" (or Thomasina to keep this PC) about inflation, rest assured you're skepticism is about to be answered. The Financial Times reports that "US Food groups plan hefty price increases" and they go on to name names like Sara Lee, Kraft Foods, Kellogg's, ConAgra and Tyson. Which will make the economy just that much harder to swallow.
Deflation? Depends on whether you mean "Can't own three houses to flip" or "just need one to live in"...or if you just look at food and gas prices. What's not core inflation to you and me is not meaningful to the giants of economic thinking that got us in to this...
Word this morning that the "EU offers to cut farm tariffs 60 percent" may sound like good trade news on the surface. I read it a like more darkly: Oh, I see the EU is trying to contain food price inflation by cutting tariffs. Oh, cynical me...
FDIC Planning More Bank Runs Ahead!
Yeah, OK, how does George get this insight, you're thinking...
Well, I went to the FDIC web site page titled "Is My Account Fully Insured?"
See what they've done? Look at the "Select a Bank" part.
This is a drop down list. If they weren't planning for more you-know-what's, they would have hard-coded a static link just to IndyMac, you'd think, right? Ergo, Mr. Ure's infallible logic goes to work: there's likely more/worse to come. Or they wouldn't have used a drop down box approach, yah think?
In Their Genes?
Roche is making a $44-billion run at Genentech, the gene splicer and dicer...call now, lines are open and deal makers are standing buy. This offer won't last long...And don't forget to ask about our Three Easy Payment Plan...Hold it! Whew! I don't know what got into me...one too many MagicJack commercials?
Cliff of www.halfpasthuman.com is due on the Jeff Rense radio show tonight - presumably Cliff will go through the latest out of the predictive linguistics run,...although some discussion of Jeff's Mario Lanza CD's and Igor's fascination with pie may come up...who knows?
The Runs: War? - The Real One is for Voters
But not to worry! We're just a 'false flag attack' away from no elections on the one hand, or as soon as the election is over, we'll be back on the economy-saving war track, anyway. Whether McCain or Obama, seems to me that when both sides are taking money from corpgov interests that the outcome will be essentially the same. The election? Ha! A triviality, as the Pelosicrats have already demonstrated. "End the War" talk is just that, an election persuasion block to be manipulated this way or that...
Meantime, we're heartened to read that the UK is teaching SAS dogs to parachute into the war zone. The war is paradogsical indeed.
A Bothersome Thought
Am I the only one who is bothered that neither Obama or McCain is making a HUGE DEAL out of the Iranian War question? It's almost like - gulp - they know it'll be decided before Obama takes office in January...which sure goes to the idea of a strike before then, doesn't it?
We read that Condi Rice wants a "serious answer" from Iran. Where was the world when Pakistan and India were busy developing nukes?
Speaking of which, since that cat is out of the bag, the US is trying to stuff it back in with a nuclear deal with India on tap which would - if passed there - subject India's nuke facilities to international inspections. Even if the issue causes the Indian government to change, the US is so desperate in its 'cat stuffing" that it has plans to sign a nuclear deal even if it's with a minority government on its way out. Which, as we read it, would open the way to a new majority government to denounce/renounce the accord as not representative of India's intent, and then we get what?
Tropical Storm Dolly is heading into the Gulf of Mexico. I'm kind of hoping that it will turn more northern and bring some rain up to our part of East Texas where things are dry. Figure the odds of it becoming a hurricane are 30 percent, and no, we just want a smallish tropical storm and some rain, thanks, not a bigger storm than that...just enough to green up the hay fields...not to cause damage. Oil's off six-week lows on this. A bottom forming in short-term charts?
Glo-Bull Warming Debate
OK, here's another round in the global warming debate. Turns out the American Physical Society still does hold to the view that greenhouse gases are warming the planet. Which, of course doesn't explain why Mars and the other planets have heated, nor does it answer questions like "How much of the volcanic activity in the Arctic is contributing to ice melt?" and a bunch of others.
In my view, carbon credits is still just a financial scam anyway, but then again, I'm not flying around in a private jet making speeches about global warming then, either, eh?
Yes, the new Bat Man: Dark Knight has gone into the record books for the opening weekend. With nothing new to spend money on in the way of a "got to have" tech toy, people actually seem to be spending money on movies and such... Good for Tinsel Town, but it sidesteps the issue for the F-1000 companies: If you're going to grow earnings, where are sales supposed to come from? 50 Terabyte cell phone cameras? LOL... (Just call me an economic fundamentalist, I suppose...)
Monday being the Day of Coffee I have to direct your attention to the "Save Our Starbucks" campaigns popping up in support of some of the 600-stores the company plans to close.
A couple of morning rush hour explosions in Southwest China have our attention. Terrorism by Muslim extremists is what comes to mind...or an excuse to make everyone in China terrornoid. Good control policy, that it is...
To Big to Fail List
I don't know if you've had time to read the SEC Order last week about short sales rules it has imposed, but :
If you're wondering why the financials seemed to put in a bottom last week, and you're wondering "Is the worst over?" I expect the answer is no, it's just that the SEC has published its list of 'untouchables'. Which are:
Nice to see we're defending foreign as well as domestic banks.
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Coping: Loafing - Perfected
One of our readers who has been unemployed a bit, has had some time on his hands to do some baking and found this: "The Fresh Loaf: News and Information for Amateur Bakers and Artisan Break Enthusiasts." Ah! Loafing of the respectable sort.
A couple of readers have asked me howe to make the print bigger while reading this web site. Here is a selection of answers:
But most seriously: If you have XP or Vista, and a wheel scrolling mouse, hold down the control button on your keyboard (CTRL) and roll the mouse wheel forward (should make the web page look bigger) or backward (which should shrink the page). This works across much of the Microsoft product line including Office 2007. If you have Linux and/or OpenOffice you might go looking for similar commands.
Goodbye, Free Internet
Here's a 'must read': "Death of Free Internet is Imminent -- Canada will become test case."
Yup, youi can tell when the corpgov establishment is worried - they talk about regulating something.
WalletPop has a great article: "Top 25 Things Vanishing from America" # 16, #4 and #1 are my biggest worries.
Cash Becoming "Priceless"?
As I whined about the stupidity of getting a cash-backed 'credit' card, a reader sent this:
Reason: 2nd Amendment dealers are probably more aware than most...
Send snip and save items to email@example.com
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Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the powers That Be, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
But, the truth of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the waning days of 1999. It's not a very pretty picture, and it sort of gives away the other side of the story. You know, the one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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