The Melt Down Ahead

To see what's coming, you only need to read a few stories, in the right order, and think through the picture being painted.  Because it's a weekend, bear with me for a few minutes, and let me walk you through the highlights, ok?

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More than a few of us who have been buying gold since the Manufacturers Resource War broke out (with 9/11/2001) have been expecting gold to begin making its "big move".  With prices surging past 24-year highs on Friday, this very well could be it.  If it is, our inclination is to wait until the Dow and the Price of Gold (POG) are even, then we'll figure out where to deploy both of our dollars next.

I have to agree with one poster over at LeMetropole Cafe who noted that the surge in prices was not directly attributable to Iran tensions.  He noted if that was the case, we would have seen oil spike up in a similar meaningful way.  It hasn't, so he figures, something else is at work.

What's really going on, as best I can judge, is that the Fed has partially lost control of the money supply (which is why they will stop their weekly confessionals of M-3 in March of this year - it will be too scary for "regular people" to stomach by then.  This week's report shows that M-3 has increased by 7.84% compared with year ago levels.  It's really worse: The November to December change in M-3 pencils out to an 11.5% annual rate.  In simplest terms, the money supply is going nonlinear now.  That's why gold is up.

You might be asking what is so frightening about that - we've had bouts of inflation before, so no big deal.  Well, not quite.  You see in the same period, the amount of M-1 (basically cash in the system) has actually decreased by about 2-10th's of one percent in the same period!.

In other words we have deflation and inflation simultaneously in the money figures.  The divergences are staggering.  You've got less paper money in hand, yet easy credit - so the purchasing power of cash goes up and the consumers are forced more and more into debt to make ends meet.

It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that this condition in the economy can't go on forever.  Thus, later this weekend, when the new web bot run (future forecasting techniques of www.halfpasthuman.com based on linguistic shifts on the internet which seem to precede major social/psychological turnings points, such as 9/11, the anthrax attack, and others) we expect that a very large unexpected event will seen happening between now and April 1st.

Why?  Because its clear to the international banksters that their game is falling apart and they need an "event" of some kind in order to maintain their cover and remain in functional  control of the country through their shadow government proxies.  Care to take a guess what that will be?

Let me help you...

Leading to Iran

One of our brilliant sources makes a very sage observation:  Don't be surprised by war with Iran around the time of the dark moon this month.  His reasoning?  Well, this bright fellow looks at Navy ship reports, a few selected posts, and notices how many small landing craft and small carriers are out of port at the moment.  Then he catches that some jet jockeys have rotated out of country for duty.  To his way of thinking, this is a tip off - or a none-too-subtle hint to Iran that the US is not kidding around on the uranium enrichment issue.

Still, Iran seems to be sticking by its guns on this and says there is no basis for other countries to restrict what it does on its own soil, whether we like it or not. 

Still, it all potentially leads to a regional conflict, which could easily go "theater nukes" which means the genie is out of the bottle and there's no bets at that point.  But isn't that what the Powers that Be are after?  The demand destruction and continued concentration of wealth in the hands of the few? Of course! 

A move against Iran, and I hope not in response to another false flag terrorist event, would keep the public's mind off the bankers and will provide a mechanism for the spinsters to blame economic duress on indigenous people and the Muslim faith which are fighting for what they see as control of their natural resource base and against Western/corporate exploitation.

The greed of the money changers and usurers would be shielded from public scorn by opening of an Iran front, especially if there was an "event" and thus their continuance in power would be assured. That's why the Texas Cell Phone story from Friday is so important - we can almost see something coming.  (Along with ID to buy a cell phone, for sure!) Simple, huh?

Now be a good citizen and run out and charge something on that 21% credit card, would yah? You've got 20-minutes yet before you're due back in the squirrel cage to line the corporate thieves pockets.

Top Talent Targeted

A very astute reader in New Mexico has been watching the reports of injury and death from the Iraq war and sends along an interesting analysis worth considering:

My growing concern for the death ratios and ages in Iraq have made me look closely at the names, ages and ranks.

As an example of my current rants about highly skilled, older, military deaths I came up with this count for Jan. 1-10

http://icasualties.org/oif/US_NAMES.aspx  is the source.

This does not include last three days of deaths.

Jan 1-10 8 sergeants, 3 majors, 2 captains, 1 Lt. Colonel, 2 lieutenants, 1 warrent officer. 17 folks. Current count this morning was 32 deaths. A few have to be subtracted for last 3 days. But that is better than 50% in leadership.

6 the sergeants were under 30.

I find this disturbing. In Vietnam we lost a lot of Lieutenants.

This is a different war. Fought on different basis. It is not a stand down the enemy face to face or man to man as was the Battle of the Bulge or past wars. This is a war fought with high tech instrumentation that takes highly trained folks to run. In old wars grunts took the brunt of war, but that is not the case here. How can this country maintain this loss ratio and maintain a highly skilled and capable military machine which may now have to take on Iran?

Growing very concerned. Years of training going down the tubes.

This is one dimension of the war that is getting precious little coverage, no question about it.  The stories that are easier for the conventional press to cover are things like the report that the cost of the Iraq War will top a trillion dollars and may get well on its way to $2-trillion...

An al Qaida Mystery

Is Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri dead?  An attack by a CIA remote controlled flying bomb is believed to have taken out the number two man in al Qaida.  But has it?  There are conflicting report sthis weekend about whether he was actually killed in the attack, or whether he managed to get away again.  Forensics experts will be used to sort this one out.  ]

The problem, of course, is that even if al-Zawahiri is dead, the al Qaida movement will no doubt continue. With Osama bin Laden still at large (we heard speculation that he may have fled Tora Bora to China), the myth building of the violent jihadist movement has continued.

Wheat, Drought

Canadian News Hound Tim B. sends along another request for our analysis of the winter wheat situation in light of the reports from folks in various areas about the lack of rain in the South.

Coming to the truth of such matters takes a lot of reading of local reports, such as this one, but as I told subscribers to our premium service some time ago, the rain of the spring will tell the tale on food prices late this year.  America, which used to be a net exporter is a net importers lately, and things aren't getting better thanks to soaring input costs.  Without becoming an economist, if you set a few news alerts to the phrase "input costs" you will turn up some interesting accounts.

Here in East Texas, we are expected to get some rain this next week, but it will hardly make up for what's a 25 inch deficiency rung up in 2005.  When you read reports about Arizona having the driest year in centuries, just remember the Anasazi were there a long time before us..at a place called Chaco Canyon.  Arizona wheat and soy production is relatively small.

Other end of the spectrum?  The Wendy's people are back to optional tomatoes because of hurricane damage to their jumbo toms from Florida.

Another Side of Teaching

In Friday's report, I mentioned how the idea of teacher compensation being tied to performance of school kids.  One of our sources in Oil Town (Houston) writes that while this looks like a good idea, what turns out in practice is really something else.  Here's his report:

This is news for Houston proper, but here in the big metropolis, teacher pay has been tied to test scores in many suburban places for over 10 years. And it doesn’t work. Here’s why:

The school is paid a bonus for each child attending daily. Thus there is a huge push to get the kids to school. When mine are sick, I get a call wanting to know where they are from their respective schools. Ostensibly, this is a security measure, and we are fine with that end of things. However, if they are out more than 1 or 2 days, the school begins to call twice a day and ask when the student can be expected back. This isn’t security, it’s pestering the parents to get that kid back in school.

As far as the testing goes, what has actually happened is that much of the old “standard” curriculum we were taught (historical dates, civil war battles, which president did what, etc.) has been simply dropped. What my kids were actually taught were the sections in each textbook associated with known questions for the testing we are talking about. The first quarter of the year they go through the entire curriculum they must cover, and the rest of the semester they practice for this big ass test.

Now, while I do have one of my 4 kids as an actual genius, the remaining 3 are simply normal students who were taught to read and encouraged by us (their parents) to read regularly and who were forced by their parents to memorize their multiplication tables up to 12. All of mine were taught the same way. I rarely see them with more than a few minutes of homework each day, and usually they get it done on the bus or at lunch so they can run free when they get home.

They tell me that the whole test is crap, that only retards cannot pass it. I only get calls from the principals office the second half of each semester, because my kids are acting up. Why? Because they are bored shitless going over the same crap again and again to insure that every dumbass in the school passes this test. The teachers spend ½ of every school year TEACHING DIRECTLY TO THESE TEST QUESTIONS!! What I get when they are finished is kids who are taught that the Civil War was started because the blacks rose up to overthrow white slavers, and that the holocaust was “a very bad time” for the Jews. Key historical and science issues are not addressed simply because the teachers are drilling everybody specifically for this big test every semester.

This means that when they get to college (I have 2 in now, 3 total in college next year), they simply do not have the educational background to hit the ground running. Instead, they must spend the first year in remedial courses to learn the stuff which they weren’t taught in high school, because of this stupid fragging teacher bonus tied to test scores!! So now we have your basic BS or BA degree requiring 5 years on average for each kid to get their sheepskin. Great for the university coffers, but it is also part of the “strapping” of our kids with ever more debt.

There are ways around this – you can get your kid into a “Science and Technology Academy” here in my area, but they must be able to pass the entry test. This is a “school within a school”, where the kids can even earn college credit while in high school. There are several of these programs available, but even within these “minischools”, a significant portion of each school years is spent TEACHING DIRECTLY FOR THIS TEACHER BONUS TEST!

I don’t have the answer to the school issue, except to urge parents to teach their children to read, and teach them a love of reading. STAY INVOLVED with each of them with respect to schooling, and don’t take crap from any teacher or administration official. The tool you threaten them with is publicity – they do NOT want parents to know what goes on and how screwed up the schools actually are. This seems to be the best way to counteract what is happening in the schools. And you cannot really blame teachers – their hands are tied by so many rules and regulations and requirements in their teaching that they are essentially helpless. IMHO, the problem rests with the huge bureaucracy above the schools and the teachers unions, neither of which is going to go away.

Just some background from Houston Metro, from a Dad who has been through the mill with all this…

Homeland Security

I'm eternally grateful to my son for demonstrating to me this week just how bureaucracy works.  He showed me his drivers license last night.  His name is signed in careful cursive"  Please No Ticket." 

I chastised him for this and pointed out that he would be jailed for screwing with The System.  But, he seems to think it's funny and this is the second license renewal he has done it with.  One State Trooper who pulled him over (minor speeding infraction) actually let him off after accompanying him to a local Office Depot to get a copy.  The trooper couldn't believe it either.

The lesson?  Just because you may be required to produce papier bitte? You're still in a free country.  I'm shocked that in two trips to his state DMV, no one has caught it.  Smart kid, bad kid.  The nut doesn't fall far from the tree either, I guess...

This is precisely why we need to have children sign their birth certificates!

Joke of the Week

You know you've been in front of the CPU too many hours when stuff like this is funny...

A truck driver was driving down a particularly icy road when he noticed A tollbooth ahead. He put on his brakes, but the truck failed to stop. The truck crashed into the tollbooth, smashing it. As he surveyed the Damage, a second truck pulled up. Workers scrambled out and began Reconstructing the tollbooth with a white putty. Before long it looked as Good as new. Puzzled, he asked about the substance. The worker said, "Oh, that's just tollgate booth paste."

(a muffled boom-dash drum hit is heard slightly off stage...)
 

Non Numeric Economics

This weekend, we cast aside numbers and offer a different approach to economics based on needs, values, supply, and demand - with no use of complex formulas.  A little common sense allows us to scoff at quants.  Click here for subscription info if you don't already know it's just $30 bucks a year..

Live Large (and Cheap!)

"How to Live on $10,000 a year, or less" is a fine way to spend $10 if you are living on the edge of economic disaster.  It's in our bookstore.

Do Your Friends Think You Are Sane?

Send them a link to this site, by clicking here.  That ought to settle any question they might still have.

Friday Jan 13, 2006

Terrorist Cell in Texas?

Details are sketchy, but police reportedly have busted a half dozen people of "middle east descent" in the Midland Texas area trying to buy - get this - 60 prepaid cell phones!   Any guesses what they want those for???  KWES-TV and local media leading in Odessa-Midland are leading with this...  Real question is where did this lead authorities after the Dec. 18 busts?

Bush Martial Law Powers

Definitely worth a read today: Doug Thompson's "rant" (which reads more like a "warning") about presidential "powers" which include throwing away our beloved Constitutional Rights...

PPI Jumps 5.4% YoY and 11% rate annualized

You were wondering why the Federal Reserve is in such a hurry to lose the M-3 reports?  Well, as I've been telling subscribers to our www.peoplenomics.com site for a couple of months, my outlook for 2006 is "inflation in the first half and deflation in the second."  Today's Produce Price Index, up at an annual rate of 11.3% annualized rate is pretty much in keeping with our expectations.

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 0.9 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.7-percent decline in November and a 0.7-percent gain in October. Prices for finished goods other than foods and energy advanced 0.1 percent in December, the same rate as in November. At the earlier stages of processing, the intermediate goods index rose 0.2 percent in December, following a 1.2- percent decrease in the prior month, while prices for crude goods moved down 2.3 percent, after falling 1.2 percent in November.

The December upturn in finished goods prices was led by the index for energy goods, which climbed 3.1 percent after dropping 4.0 percent in the preceding month. Larger price increases for finished consumer foods and an upturn in the index for capital equipment also contributed to this turnaround. By contrast, prices for finished consumer goods other than foods and energy moved up at a 0.1-percent rate in December, compared with a 0.2-percent increase in November.

Before seasonal adjustment, the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.3 percent in December to 158.8 (1982 = 100). From December 2004 to December 2005, finished goods prices rose 5.4 percent, following a 4.2-percent increase in 2004. The index for finished energy goods climbed 23.9 percent in 2005, after moving up 13.4 percent in the preceding calendar year. Conversely, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy rose 1.7 percent in 2005, following a 2.3-percent gain in 2004. The finished consumer foods index also went up at a slower rate in 2005 than it had in the previous year--1.4 and 3.1 percent, respectively. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods advanced 8.4 percent in 2005, compared with a 9.2- percent increase in 2004, while the crude goods index jumped 22.1 percent, after rising 17.4 percent a year earlier.

What's important is that the Finished Goods index is up 5.4% from year ago levels - and seeing as our estimate was 6.3% inflation on a trailing twelve month basis by mid 2006, this seems just dandy.  Oh, sure, there will be little inconveniences like the market hating it, but come on, admit this is fitting into what the the People's Economist has been palavering about.

As you line things up, from the mine, farm, and wellhead, through the intermediate processes of manufacturing, and into finished goods, you can see the inflation in the pipeline I have been warning about.  One a 12-month basis, from the start:

• Crude materials up 22.1%  (energy goods up 44.8% in a year!)

• Intermediate goods up 8.4%

• And finished goods up 5.4%

No, I don't claim to be an economic genius, but then again, I can read which some economystics apparently can't.  Huge hikes into pipe mean margin cuts for corporations and inflation coming and then we flip over and get demand destruction... (duh...)

Friday the 13th Part One

OK, here's the overview:

• Final Destination marketing is underway seriously today.

• We find the usual stories about gamblers aren't worried about the day.

• There are the almost obligatory triskaidekaphobia stories.

• The British think accidents rates go up today.

 But we'd like to offer from worries that will outlast the stroke of midnight tonight

The rally of this market is long in the tooth.  While the retracement hasn't hit precisely at 11,093.81 which would put in an 85% retracement rally from the post 9/11 lows after the spring 2000 All Time Highs, it's close enough in my book to at least bear (pun intended) thinking about.  Stocks are set to open lower.  I expect PPI will weigh, but let's look for happy talk about that..

Regardless of you personal feelings, we don't have another one of these days until October this year.

Economic Rocket Surgeons

Folks at the White House have apparently figured out that the federal budget deficit will rise in 2006.  Gee, hmmm, what a surprise, huh?  These guys have mastered the inter-generational debt transfer which will bind your children and grand kids into economic slavery...fine spend away...

Bust Up

Tyco plans to split into three companies.  Electronics, healthcare, and everything else.  Whatever happened to their electric trains?

Fuji to Blow?

Let's see: while much of Japan is experiencing record snowfall lately, in fact the death toll from the snows is up to 63 or so, a few folks in Japan have noticed Mount Fuji is short of snow.  Does that mean is could be setting up to blow wonder local press?  Got to admit that's a strange pairing - death from now and bald mountain.

Alaska's Augustine volcano, which popped off the other day has chilled a bit and the threat level has been downgraded - for now.  Scientists are still watching it closely.

Iran Stands Firm

Iranian officials say the country is standing by its plan to continue uranium enrichment work.

Practical Econ: Incentive Pay for Teachers

Once in a while a concept comes along that seems like a good thing.  Today, it's the report that teacher pay in Houston is being tied to test scores.  I have to wonder how this would work in big city schools where kids are occasionally alleged to be passed just to get them out of the system and out of the way.

Buckypaper?

What the heck is Buckypaper?  After Buckminster fuller, it's a new kind of paper being developed which is about 1-10th the weight of steel and 250-times stronger says a report out of FSU recently.  Sounds like cool materials science work with lots of applications.

If it Helps Elephants...

Indian elephants in Mongolia are being given daily doses of vodka to help them cope with cold weather.  I wonder if it impairs their memories?

East Timor Comments

A follow up note from a reader in Australia to our remarks on East Timor and Oz coming to terms on oil and gas revenue sharing:

George, mate. I’m no fan of the current Australian government (didn’t vote for them last time, wont vote for them next time) but I think a 50/50 split in revenue from a gas field which is 80% in Australian economic territory (as recognized in International Law) is very far from unfair.

Poor old East Timor is run by a bunch of crooks who fully intend to rob the locals. This is clear as crystal to Australians who watch this area. To help them rob these poor people the crooked government has forced the Portugese language onto the country, as the national language, rather than the more sensible and useful English language. This means the locals will be unable to access the Australian press which has plenty of news about the crookedness of the gang running East Timor. This gang is in a ‘business relationship’ with the gangsters running the Javanese Empire (aka Indonesia).

Australian efforts to get the East Timor government to put their gas income into safe investments in Australia and work carefully with the (untaxed) dividends came to nothing. The crooks want all the income so they transfer it directly into their own bank accounts overseas.

Australia is not like America. We do not see ourselves as a ‘Master of the Universe’ as does America. Therefore we have no need to control all the world’s resources as do the Americans. We have a very good set up here and we are not crazed in our relations with the rest of the world. We have not tried to loot East Timor; but we know who is going to loot these poor people.

Keep punchin’on mate

Uh, yeah, OK.  We notice in the CIA World Fact Book that East Timor  claims no territorial sea, exclusive economic zone, or fishing zones.  On the other hand, Australia claims 12 miles territorial sea, a 24 miles contiguous zone, and an exclusive 200 nautical mile economic zone, and even further, claims out to 200 nautical miles or to the edge of the continental margin.

Now, I'll admit to East Timor being run by a wobbly group of folks - but it seems that "size matters" because as a 2003 Asia Times article noted:

"The Timor Sea, however, is disputed territory. Australia claims the seabed as part of its continental shelf, which it says extends to the Timor Trough, just 50 nautical miles off the coast of East Timor. East Timor challenges this claim - which would put all of the reserves in Australian territory - pointing to the principle of a midway line between the two nations. Unable to agree on maritime boundaries, a controversial Timor Sea Treaty to share the reserves was signed on East Timor's first day of independence. But on the same day, East Timor's prime minister, Mari Alkatiri, announced that his country still claims its entitlement to permanent maritime boundaries - boundaries which would void the treaty just signed. As such, the prizefight for resources between the region's richest and poorest countries had become official. "

Now, while I will grant that the million or so people on East Timor might not be up to the capital formation required for major oil and gas exploration, we're not clear what will happen when resources are found (again) outside of the specific field covered by the present agreement.

It seems more than just coincidental that the international community supported East Timor's independence in 2002, but  as the facts in the case show, Australia is hiding behind "international law" which gives them a 200 nautical mile (236.75 statue) mile lebensraum while the indigenous people (without corporate interests to help lobby) get zero - that's right - zip in the way of territorial or economic rights despite the disputed area being 50 miles from their coast.  I figure the $10 billion is petro hush money, at best.

Thus, I'd argue that "international law" is a buzzword  for global corporate law, as "equal protection" need not be applied.

Thursday Jan 12 2006

Sarasota is Mean?

A place to live - that's right at the top of UrbanSurvival issues, along with something to eat, some water, and a chance at upward mobility.  Today, more than a few cities in the U.S. have been actively "criminalizing homelessness" says the latest report from the National Coalition for the Homeless.  From the executive summary of this year's report comes the list of "meanest cities in America":

#1 Sarasota, FL. After two successive Sarasota anti-lodging laws were overturned as unconstitutional by state courts, Sarasota passed a third law banning lodging outdoors. This latest version appears to be explicitly aimed at homeless persons. One of the elements necessary for arrest under the law is that the person “has no other place to live.”

#2 Lawrence, KS. After a group of downtown Lawrence business leaders urged the city to cut social services and pass ordinances to target homeless persons, the city passed three “civility” ordinances, including an aggressive panhandling law, a law prohibiting trespass on rooftops, and a law limiting sleeping or sitting on city sidewalks.

#3 Little Rock, AR. Homeless persons have reported being kicked out of bus stations in Little Rock, even when they had valid bus tickets. Two homeless men reported that officers of the Little Rock Police Department, in separate incidents, had kicked them out of the Little Rock Bus Station, even after showing the police their tickets. In other instances, homeless persons have been told that they could not wait at the bus station "because you are homeless."

#4 Atlanta, GA. Amid waves of public protest and testimony opposing the Mayor’s proposed comprehensive ban on panhandling, the City Council passed the anti-panhandling ordinance in August 2005. In the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Atlanta stood firm in its resolve to criminalize panhandlers. A Katrina evacuee who was sleeping in his car with his family after seeking refuge in Atlanta was arrested for panhandling at a mall in the affluent Buckhead neighborhood, even after he showed the police his Louisiana driver’s license, car tag, and registration as proof that he was a Katrina evacuee. In addition, during the first week in December, the Atlanta Zoning Review Board approved a ban on supportive housing inside the city limits.

#5 Las Vegas, NV. Even as the city shelters are overcrowded and the city’s Crisis Intervention Center recently closed due to lack of funding, the city continues to target homeless persons living outside. The police conduct habitual sweeps of encampments which lead to extended jail time for repeat misdemeanor offenders. In order to keep homeless individuals out of future parks, the city considered privatizing the parks, enabling owners to kick out unwanted people. Mayor Oscar Goodman fervently supported the idea, saying, “I don’t want them there. They’re not going to be there. I’m not going to let it happen. They think I’m mean now; wait until the homeless try to go over there.”

The rest of the top 20 "Mean Cities" list is:

6.    Dallas, TX
7.    Houston, TX
8.    San Juan, PR
9.    Santa Monica, CA
10.  Flagstaff, AZ
11.  San Francisco, CA
12.  Chicago, IL 
13.  San Antonio, TX
14.  New York City, NY
15.  Austin, TX
16.  Anchorage, AK
17.  Phoenix, AZ
18.  Los Angeles, CA          
19.  St. Louis, MO
20.  Pittsburgh, PA

The Coalition report also offers up some examples of how criminalization of homelessness works:

• For example, when a city passes a law that places too many restrictions on begging, free speech concerns are raised as courts have found begging to be protected speech under the First Amendment.

• When a city destroys homeless persons’ belongings or conducts unreasonable searches or seizures of homeless persons, courts have found such actions violate the Fourth Amendment right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures.

• Courts have found that a law that is applied to criminally punish a homeless person for necessary life activities in public, like sleeping, violates that person’s Eighth Amendment right to be free from cruel and unusual punishment if the person has nowhere else to perform the activity.

• Laws that do not give people sufficient notice of prohibited conduct or allow for arbitrary enforcement by law enforcement officials can be unconstitutionally vague. Courts have found loitering and vagrancy laws unconstitutionally vague.

Here's the Catch 22:  If you don't have money, in many cities, you can't find a place to relieve yourself.  Unless you are a customer of a business, that is.  I can tell you after traveling across much of the country in the past year or two that gas stations will withhold restrooms keys from non-customers.

"OK," you're muttering, "Why is the People's Economist pointing out all this homeless stuff?"

Ah, glad you asked.  I see a large number of news stories and social markers that suggest to me that the number of homeless in America will be making a dramatic increase in future years as our middle class is ripped apart and bifurcated more clearly into the "Haves" and "Have nots."  Examples:

• Total Foreclosure Inventory and New Foreclosures jumped at the end of 2005.

• The new book "Strapped: Why America's 20 and 30-somethings Can't Get Ahead" is making lots of headlines around the country because it rings true with millions.

• Bankruptcy filings hit an all time record in 2005 says the Law News Network:  Quote on point: "Consumer bankruptcy filings for 2005 were 2,043,535, up from 1,552,967 in 2004. On an annualized basis, 1 in every 53 households filed bankruptcy. (Household numbers are based on 2005 estimates by the US Census.) Chapter 7 consumer filings, providing consumers with the greatest relief of their debts, increased 47.2 percent in 2005. Chapter 13 consumer filings, requiring consumers to repay a part of their debts, declined 7.9 percent. "

• Credit card minimum payment requirements are up, and tighter bankruptcy laws for individuals have been enacted in recent months, all well documented along the way here.

• Then there's the offer I received as an email this morning offering to disclose to me Donald Trumps "Real Estate Secrets of the Masters" as a collection of CD's.  I immediately filed this in my "You know the housing bubble is over when" file.

Sadly, it's not like I'm the only one seeing the middle class squeeze out at work.  A reader in (Saudi) Alberta (Canada for the truly sleepy) writes:

Sunny cool Alberta. oil industry flying, housing strong, 1/3 of people doing better than ever, except that savings are low, and consumption is quite high. good times but with a black horizon for those who can see into the distance. {the black horizon is not really very far] ps join the club and be in the top stratosphere of this third. 1/3 struggling to keep it together wondering why in a province of supposed plenty life just seems to get harder every day. They should probably work 16 hours a day instead of only 12. OR MAYBE 18. OR be a bus driver or government employee then you would make it to the the top 1/3 without really trying. ( WITH BENEFITS)

 

The bottom 1/3 is as always, except worse. Petty crime, incarceration, and desperation. on a bigger scale. Is there anything new under the sun. With 5000 years under our belt or thereabout, plus lost times, you'd think we could have got it right. nah. Sunny cool alberta is a fascinating microcosym; The top of economic booms and the bottom of busts. Even bigger than Texas.  yeeee haawwww  This will be the biggest of the big so yeeeeeeee haaaaaaaw god bless

Yup, no doubt about it: 5,000 of history (for this go 'round anyway) might seem like enough time for people to come up with workable ways of growing food, sharing wealth, and generally getting along without Crusade versus Jihad, but apparently not.

We live in a world where anything tough is done away with.  In fact, the most recent data point that goes to the notion of "fast is everything" comes from right here in Texas where cursive writing is being phased out in favor of more time to learning keyboarding so kids can interact with a world where computers don't do cursive  unless you have the right font packs installed.

Socioeconomic Markers

A reader suggests this tonic: "I have jusy finished a book by Robert Fisk, THE GREAT WAR FOR CIVILISATION THE CONQUEST OF THE MIDDLE EAST. Published by Fourth Estate in Great Britain. You may be interested in reading this book , it certainly covers a lot of what has been happening in the last three decades . If you do read this book I would be very interested in your opinion of it."

Oh sure, throw it on the reading pile.  Finishing "The Magus of Java" and next up is "Blink" and after that, a close encounter/trance with TurboTax Premier which will keep me preoccupied for a while.

Before I do that, however, one of my kids called and wants to quit her job (before she has a new one).  Because it's a well enough paying job (more than twice minimum wage, which is OK these days) I gave her my UrbanSurvival Short Course on Career Building (which I should package like Trump on four CD's and sell for $39.95, but I'll give it away free because I'm not as bright apparently):  

UrbanSurvival Career Building Course:

Do not quit job 1 until you have a firm start date for Job 2. 

Corollary 1:  Job 2 pays at least 15% more than Job 1 or you just suck it up and keep Job 1.

Corollary 2: Benefits are generally worth $300-$800 per month depending on age, and count as you weigh total compensation when deciding on job.

Daughter wants to discuss this. "Too busy with Job 1 to get out and get Job 2." 

Listen again, kid: "Bird in hand is worth two in bush and Job in hand is worth four in Bush Land."  Sometimes I just want to have a drink and bang my head against a wall.

Hard at Hearing

Sam Alito's wife was so upset at the tone of questioning at her hubby's confirmation hearings that she left the room in tears.  But what was to cry about, we wonder?

Also in the discussions of Alito, we notice the term "left-wing" popping up again.  Just for the hell of it, I consulted the Search Engine Oracle (also known as Google's news engine) and was told in current news coverage, the Oracle is aware of about 8,530 references to the term "left-wing" and 12,400 for the term "right-wing".

Iran Dancing

(Get it?  I ran, dancing?  Ha Ha...  But seriously...) We see this morning how the Russians are saying that Iran's breaking of the seals (which we reported yesterday) is not really a violation of international law.  It is a big dance, at the moment anyway.

A reader  - in fact I think it was Canadian correspondent News Hound Tim  - suggests this morning that the sequence of events will be something like this:  The U.S. will ask the U.N. to act against Iran.  China and Russia will veto.  Then Bush & company will build a new "Coalition of the Willing"  (the new label for international vigilante justice) and off we go to another war.

Manufacturer's Resource Wars

Hmmm.  Let's see:  Today we find that Australia, which has been trying to muscle in on East Timor's oil and gas resources, has strong-armed an agreement out of East Timor to share oil and gas revenues.  And Bolivia's new president is talking about nationalizing oil and gas resources.  But, we already talked about that.

Curious Crash

It's not often an executive jet crashes and so when the US Navy loses one of its executive jets, we pay attention.  Wonder who was aboard?

The Best Possible Investment

What is it, you ask?  One answer this week for subscribers to our www.peoplenomics.com reports ($30/year, click here for sign up info).

Wednesday Jan 11 2006

Oysters, Illegals, Money and People

"Rebellion or Scandal on the Texas Coast?" writes one of our readers this morning, as he sent along this eye witness account of what's going on to our south...

It’s oyster season on the gulf coast. Fulton harbor is the working harbor for these non-English speaking workers, Rockport, Texas is the seat of county power. I came down to visit my 27’ sail boat slipped in Fulton where the rent was considerably less than the yacht harbor in Rockport.  As I walk the dock the harbor water is covered with diesel, some kind of tan-brown layer 2” under, plastic jugs floating, beer bottles, paper plates, plastic bags, and Human Waste! I video taped 10-12 masses of floating Human Waste.

I go to the Aransas County Navigation District to belly ache about “my” harbor and apparently I’m not the first. They’ve already seen the pictures. NOTHING is being done. The local wharf rats are plenty ticked off since we’re all paying triple the rent and see no improvements to our harbor. I go to the local news paper for the cold shoulder and accusation of being a racist when I mention the Immigration people and random checks. (one of the fellas had a hidden camera while interviewing the workers, most from Veracruz, no papers). I go to County Health Department waste problem people. “Not our jurisdiction”. No locals want to do anything. The local population isn't even aware of the problem. Newspaper. People from San Antone, Austin, Houston come here for the weekends and fish in the harbor. If they only knew. Channel x TV (Corpus?, San Antone?, Houston?) was here to do a story on oyster harvest . “We’re not here about the harbor”. Refused to do a story on it while they were here. Oldtimer said last time the harvest was this big it took 4 years to recover.

It was explained to me the county is run by a few families who have been here since or before Davy Crocket rode into the Alamo. They take turns being Mayor, Sheriff, Harbor Master, Councilmen, etc. Something about all “in bed” together. CYA, attitudes. They own a newspaper, a seafood buying company, and they are the movers and shakers in this neighborhood.

REBELLION?  Some locals start going over their heads to the State of Texas, US Coast Guard (under Homeland Security, now), FBI, INS. So the Tx oil spill people show up and write 7 tickets in a week for spillage, one for $15,000 to a seafood buyer for not watching the diesel pump as it spilled ??? gallons into the harbor. Even the Texas Rangers showed up last week and wrote some kind of citation to a sea food buyer for something to do with the semis loading bags of oysters. Haven’t seen them since. Rumor has it Immigration doesn’t want to get involved unless the Coasties ask for them. The Coasties don’t want to get involved with that. Last Saturday 8 young (under 30 for sure, under 20?) pretty girls showed up in blue Coastie overalls and went around handing out pieces of paper to all the oyster boats with a phone number to call if they witness an oil spill. (Yeah, right. They pump the oil out of their bilges at nite so no one sees it) Don’t know if printed bilingual. Haven’t seen the girls since.

Harbor is much cleaner last 3 days. WHY? You may ask. Cause the Oystermen went on strike! A seafood buyer who was paying $19 a bag dropped it to $15! Hardly any workers in the harbor, only a handful of boats going out. Last nite the Nav District had several porta potti's brought in. That should help.

This AM I wake up at 4:30. At 5: I see a sheriffs car, 5 Tx oils spill pickups, 2 with empty skiff trailers, more coming in by the minute, more sheriff cars, a 5th wheel command trailer comes in. the Harbor Master shows up when he gets a call for an electrical cord to go from shore power to the command trailer. it’s daylight now and there’s a Coast Guard chopper circling the harbor. Noisy thing. Wish it would hover over harbor entrance.

So, you see what the People can do when the Authorities turn their back on us. We can make things happen. We CAN go to a Higher Authority and get things done. Now, like I was saying about the Federal Gov’t ……………

Seals Broken

Iran has "broken the seal" on its equipment which is used to enrich uranium.  OK, you ask, why do I think this is so interesting?  I don't find anything unusual in the US and Russia condemning the resumption of nuclear work.

Not to go "Biblical" on you, but I seem to recall that the "end times" get rolling in earnest with a "breaking of the seven seals" and get worse from their.  OK, you might say "this is a stretch, George" but I can't think of a time when the breaking of "seals" have made headlines of an international type and the breaking of which could be used as a basis of a major shooting war that could escalate to something global/horrible/life threatening.  Just a curiosity at this point and maybe I've become overly sensitive to linguistics.  "Seals broken" is such a familiar phrase in Revelations, though...

Bolivia's New Power

We're reading lots of reports about how Bolivia's new president-elect Evo Morales is wooing new allies.  Curiously, many press reports cite his "left wing agenda" (or similar pejorative terms) and yet upon investigation we read that he's not moving on existing holdings of foreign companies, but is taking control of the country's economics resources such as natural gas.

You might want to watch this closely, as in the context of the Manufacturer's Resource Wars which I'd propose the world is in today, the pressure (read: spin) against local South American versions of George Washington (e.g. Chavez in Venezuela and now Morales in Bolivia) will be smeared in reports as being radical/leftists and worse for opposing corporate subjugation of their countries. Just as a thinking point, something in the gut says these guys are tapping into the large mass of humanity's distrust of the resource gobbling consumer-crazed world at the core of US policy. The march of Islam taps in to the same sort of sentiment.

At a macro level (when you "zoom out" on world events) there's a spin battle of concepts being played.  One side has "natural resources" positioned as something that should be available to all citizens of the world.  The other side, conversely, gets labeled something like "selfish national governments" which are "anti-progress."    Whether Morales' actions constitute a "leftward wave" or indicate he's only looking out for the interests of his constituency is something time (and money, no doubt) will reveal.

I couldn't help but note that former president Fujimoi has been barred from running in Peru's president contest. He's presently jailed in Chile, fighting extradition on graft charges and worse, and sounding like a member of our own CONgress, huh?

---

Not all corporations are evil.  A few - damned few - but a few are really acting responsibly.  We have to offer a "tip of the hat" (or the coffee cup at this hour) to Whole Foods which is trying to run its whole company on renewable energy.  An admirable plan - and coupled with their historic support of organic farming - gets them an "A" in my book.

---

Still, at last week's photo op for former secretaries of defense and state held at the White House, each guest was reportedly given only 20-seconds to really speak.  I have to call that a photo op.  The US corporate structure is built on a consumption-driven business model (and has been since the introduction of the annual model car by Alfred Sloan et al at GM in 1928*.  Whether we're honest with ourselves about planned obsolescence, some leaders in the rest of the world have figured out, and our actions speak louder than words.

I figure until we get to work on a new business model for America that rewards recycling, quality, and craftsmanship within our own borders, the existing power structure which profits from outsourcing, consumer churn, and debasing the currency, is not likely to loosen its reins on power.  Besides, war is easier to wage than peace and there's a lot better short term investment return.

*"Under Sloan's direction, General Motors also popularized the annual model which gave consumers the opportunity to choose from a wide variety of color combinations and personal amenities."  And that, boys and girls, is why American cars rarely lasted more than 100,000 miles until we were driven there by the Deming/quality minded Japanese.

Speaking of GM & Cars & Such...

As the economic noose has been tightening lately, GM has announced it's cutting prices.  I keep waiting for one of the GM divisions to "go Volkswagen" and announce it's ending the annual model scam and instead will focus on building great, long-lived cars and light trucks.  We'd step up for one of them, but short lifespan cars?  No thanks. 

Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com (the web bot genius) just finished putting a new engine in his Trooper, so it will be good for another 200,000 miles for $2,300 or so.  To save you the calculator, that will give him about 1.15¢ a mile for a vehicle that he uses for light truck type work.  A new vehicle of the same grade would be about $25,000 pencils out to 16.6 cents a mile at 150,000 miles and that's before interest and required maintenance like timing belts.  Our own paid for Daewoo is about to turn over 100,000 with 130,000 targeted before replacement.

Are we the only guys on earth who do cars based on operating cost per seat mile? IRS has business mileage pegged at 48¢ a mile for the last part of 2005.   Yup, moving back from L.A. this year yields $768 in mileage to IRS way of thinking.  Our cost out of the checkbook will be something like 15¢ actual car costs and around 13¢ for fuel/oil.  That's 28¢ actual versus 48¢ allowable - their rules are fine with me.

Swiss Out CIA

The US operated secret jails in a number of places including the Ukraine, Kosovo, and Romania, according to a report.

Alito Hearings

I think this is amusing as all get out, the Sam Alito hearings.  Why?  Oh, depending on who you read, he's either going to keep an open mind on abortion rights, or his still holds to his views expressed in 1985 on Roe vs. Wade.

Relocation Centers

Sounds like something out of Germany in WW II, doesn't it?  Well, no wonder people in New Orleans are worried about what will come from the Bring Back New Orleans report due shortly.  Meantime, the poor displaced are being evicted.

Too Much TV?

A woman's mummified body has been found in front of a TV set 2 1/2 years after she died.  Was "The Ring" out 2 1/2 years ago?

Washington Honored

American Lung Association kudos to Washington State for anti-cigarette work.  Like the old country song "Cigareettes & Whiskey & Wild Wild Women" describes smoking: "There's a fire on the one end and a fool on 't other..."

Tuesday Jan 10, 2006

Pullback Due

Although the Dow closed over 11-thousand yesterday, we are sort of expecting it to give up the ghost today and close under that "line in the sand" today.  If you read the latest fractal report, it could go much, much lower.  What's driving that?   Oil (see next article) at least in part.  As our friends over at www.bullnotbull.com wrote:

George,

What do you make of this rally? Until I just saw the Nikkei, I thought were were going to test a new high on the Dow, but as of now, the Nikkei is getting killed, and I bet it spills over into tomorrow's US market.

Got a new collection of thoughts up that you and your readers might enjoy

http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/market-01092006.php 

Take care, Michael

Oil Prices Firm

Now that imports to the US are pretty well tapped out after the big surge of international shipments following Katrina/Rita, prices are staying firm.  All this leads us to wonder how long before gasoline prices start moving up again.  Shortly, we expect.

Then there's the problem of Iran, which is reopening its nuclear research facilities and plans to start enrichment soon.  What's interesting to me is that the Bush administration seems dead set against Iran having nukes, while they are virtually surrounded by nukes.  If proliferation really was a big deal, the West shouldn't have allowed Pakistan to build its first bomb.

Another touchy area in natural gas prices.  A good article in MosNews today outlines some of the politicking behinds the scenes in the recent showdown with Ukraine.

As one reader sends in today:

"Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil"."

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Link to the site has been up on the left menu for months.  More coffee in order, but the point is worth repeating.

Secret Visit

I love when headlines talk about a "secret visit" of North Korean madman/leader Kim Jong-il to China. Some secret, huh?  No doubt talking about the important items on his agenda: food and nukes.  I notice that he's riding on a specially armored train.  I don't suppose he's thought through the tracks issue?

BFD

That's bird flu danger (why would you think anything else?) and it seems to be rising following the reported cases in Turkey on Monday.  While 14 cases are H5N1 bird flu for sure, the unanswered question is whether this strain can transmit from human-to-human.  23 cases are suspected, but again, human-to-human is the big issue.  If/when that occurs, then look for countries to start getting serious about restrictions on travel.

Rule of Law

That was the big pitch in Sam Alito's Supreme Court nomination hearings opening statement.  Now, we look for the democrats to school up (as in sharks) and go after him on abortion rights, presidential powers, and such.

VP Health Issues

The L.A. Times has good follow-up on VP Dick Cheney's health after he was hospitalized early this week.

Also, as long as we're doing rounds this morning, Ariel Sharon is able to move  an arm now.

Junket?

Whenever we read about how the governor of Louisiana is going to Holland to learn first hand about how Holland keeps the ocean at bay, we wonder why they can't just read a book or five?  And, if they can't read, what about all of those web cams from Holland?  (oops, not those kind of web cams, you pervert!)  For the governor, the choice is "Go to Holland or meet with George Bush and suck up to the godfather of federal funding later this week." Just not the call I would have made if my city was still digging out.  Coffee shops, anyone?

Global Housing Bust?

If you thought the end of the housing bubble was going to be a U.S. only affair, flip over to the L.A. Times report on the housing bust in Shanghai, and rethink your thinking.

NASA Plans

A sharp-witted reader read about NASA's plans to bring back some of the oldest stuff ever collected by humans and wonders if scientists ever read Michael Crichton's "The Andromeda Strain."  Yeah, seems a bit odd that first space flights were isolated for fear of bugs back when, and now here comes the equivalent of a FedEx from space kind of thing.  Behavior change, I guess.  Reader thinks NASA may be nuts, but that's a political issue we don't have all day to get into.  The scientists are great, but the politics....oh boy...

Fractals

From Gary Lammert:

George, when will the fat lady sing? Soon. Too soon. It would be much preferable for the people of the world if the Federal Reserve and World Banks could continuously monetize all of the enormous debt, pension, and entitlement obligations that has been created by the historically anomalous continuous yearly positive GDP growth that has linearly occurred through debt expansion during the last fifty years- but that will and cannot not happen. As long as there is a significant private sector subject to the conditions of profit need, ongoing consumption of goods and services, employee wages, and their own pension obligations - self feedback macroeconomic corrections will inevitably occur.

GM is the prototype of of a formerly great private enterprise undergoing feedback collapse. Its debt burden and pension obligations are too great; its profit margins are collapsing as Asian engineers produce a better product, competitive even with the added cost of transoceanic shipping. The overproduced housing industry will soon follow as ongoing consumption of its widgets is being limited by the wages of entry level service workers who must pay annual property taxes on overvalued domiciles. Debt must be serviced and the co-conditions of the wages, cost of living, and debt load of bottom feeders who provide the pyramidal base support for the various speculative bubbles will effect the immutable feedback that rights the imbalances.

The ghostly fat lady, reminiscent of previous fat ladies throughout economic history, is on stage, up to the mic and clearing her ample throat, as the equities rise to their inevitable weekly fractal apogee. This inevitable and deterministic action will conclude the positive valuation activity of great right shoulder to March 2000's summation's head. Last week a terminal maximal x/2.5x/2.5x weekly growth fractal was identified. That 30/75/75 maximal weekly fractal is set to reach its apogee .... this week - not last week. Verification of this 30/75/75 weekly pattern can be accomplished by looking at the TMWX weekly charts on the 3-4 year durations- and counting the weeks contained within the individual growth fractals as determined by nodal lows. The first 30 week duration is weighted summation of 34 and 23 week bases.

The timing of this weekly apogee matches two other major daily fractal apogees. For the sake of argument assume that optimal growth for the March 2000 right shoulder is destined to follow an ideal, nonstochastic, and deterministic x/2.5x/2.5x maximum weekly growth fractal. Support for this notion is justified by the recurrent theme of near perfect x/2.5x/2.5x maximal growth for smaller unit fractals occurring throughout the right shoulder's evolution. To reach the optimal 3rd fractal growth of 75 weeks, starting with a first base of 56 days beginning in August 2004, a transposition was necessary for the third sub fractal.

The ideal sequence with a base of 56 days would be 56/140/140. The second growth fractal did indeed end exactly on day 140. However, the third sub fractal began with a base of 31 days. The ideal growth fractal of this sequence would be 31/77/62-77. 7 July,2005, the day of the misguided British Islamic youth attacks, did have a lower low than the first 31 day base. This occurrence attests to the perspective that major world events can have small, transient -but unsustained effects - on market trading and fractal evolution. The next low occurred exactly as fractally expected on day 77 in October 2005. The Wilshire is currently on day 60 of 62-77. Notice that the first high of the third sub fractal occurred, also as ideally expected, on day 31, 25 November 2005.

The other concomitant daily fractal growth sequence is the often identified 11-12/29-30/20-21 of 24-30 day maximal daily sequence. It appears that the final blow-off for the right shoulder will involve the simultaneous conclusions of the major weekly growth fractal pattern and the natural ends of the two dominant daily sub fractal growth patterns. The European and Nikkei equity market are also marching to their own near time ideal fractal growth conclusion with a different base sequence.

Every day of valuation growth toward the maximal natural fractal growth paradoxically, in relation to the devolution in 1929, shortens the overall decay pattern. The fat lady will most likely be an unbearably off key and shrill soprano, singing a very short piece as compared to the 32 month devolution in from 1929 to 1932 and 2000 to 2003. Be prepared . Expect the unexpected. Gary Lammert

A few readers wonder why I even look at fractal economics.  Well, I think it's a coming field.

A Lick & a Promise

That's about what the weather was here last night.  We had a spectacular thunderstorm go through our area about ( PM last night, but the amount of rain it brought was mighty disappointing.  Less than a quarter inch, which for the Texas drought area is just (to borrow an Elaine saying) a "lick & a promise."  Fires this year have been unusually harsh in Texas.

Civilization: Veneer Wears Thin

A reader up in Vermont sends this interesting "taste of America" along:

Hi George,

The web bots' forecast of coming militancy is certainly manifesting itself in my own life. After one small event last Saturday morning, I've gotten worked up enough to tackle a problem I've been dealing with since we moved to our new place up in the hills of Vermont, and the locals have been dealing with since 2001.

There's a highly traveled snowmobile trail that runs right by our house (I'm talking 50 feet), and proceeds along our public road for a while before diverging back off to private property. The residents have been petitioning the town government since at least 2001 to get the trail off our road, with no success.

Enter last Saturday, as one of the trail maintenance people parks his huge truck in the road, blocking our access out of the house so that we can't make it down the hill. That one incident has led me to contact numerous people and agencies to get the thing shut down for good.

After emails to the Town Manager are shot down, we take it over their heads. To the State Senators and Representative, with no response just yet. Then around, in case they dodge, we hit a local organization dedicated to quiet roads and trails who kindly passes the story along to people at the National Wildlife Federation and Conservation Law Foundation.

All they had to do was give us our road back when we politely asked for it the first time, or the second time, or the third time. If they make us take it to court they'll end up getting the contorted law the town and snowmobile organization are relying on overturned (23 V.S.A. 3206b(3)) and lose a lot more than they could have just given up in the first place.

An amateur SKED analysis of the replies from the status quo has been revealing, my thanks for bringing the technique to your readers' attention. Seeing the Town Manager talking about how Vermont is not a "home rule" state sends chills down my spine for some reason.

Please don't use my name if you post any of this, but feel free to post or do as you wish with it otherwise. My feeling is that others out there, while not facing the same specific situation, are dealing with a similar stubbornness from the powers that be in their own towns, and if there are just 5,000 people as militant as I'm feeling right now, 2006 could be a year of change in many ways.

Again, I have to ask, where the hell of the real republicans?  Eminent domain is another side to this same coin.  If folks want to live in the country, I figure leave them the hell alone and give them their privacy.  If they want to living in sheeple coups (that's condos and apartments) then fine, too.  But home rule?  Local control? Fagettaboutit. The real republicans are mostly gone and who these guys are lately is a fine mystery.

Deer Warning

My son is visiting today and has announced his intent to dispose of many rounds from our armory.  Deer in the vicinity are advised that he's confined to the range, and those shots today will not be a band of rabid poachers.

Monday Jan 9, 2006

Flu-Like Coincidence

Back around the middle of December, there was a lot of speculation floating around the 'net that CIA Director Porter Goss was going to Turkey to advise them that the US would be overflying their country on our way to kick the living daylights out of Syria and Iran in the not-too-distant future.  And, to be sure, there have been some follow up reports about how al Qaida was eyeing Turkey - a place where there have been terrorist actions in the past, including bombings of it was either mosques or synagogues, the latter I think, as Turkey sits on the outer edge of the Middle East's "ring of fire."

Now, I know absolutely no one in the Turkish government, and have no source, but nevertheless I am struck by the odd coincidence with Bird Flu showing up all of a sudden in Turkey.  Four known cases are reported but several more are suspected - as best we can tell over 20 so far.  Already, governments are warning people about travel to Turkey, including Ireland and Russia who are worried travelers might bring home an outbreak.  That's IF indeed this strain is human-to-human transmissible.

Coincidence that Porter Goss went to Turkey to "warn them" about something (which was assumed to be overflights)?  I hope so.  But, you know there is so much money to be made from selling drugs these days (the medicinal kind, not the crack baby kind) that the reports from Turkey just sort of popped out at me...

Cheney Hospitalized

We read that VP Dick Cheney is in the hospital with shortness of breath, but due to return home today.  The web bots some time ago referred to a linguistic shift around Cheney references that went to the idea leg problems, if I recall, and a developing paralysis of some sort.  And personal rage at the body not keeping up with the brain