Updated:  Friday February 6, 2004              "News with a twist of money..."

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*****

10.9% Unemployment!

Let's see if we follow the the Whopper, shall we?  If you believe the administration, there were 112,000 new jobs created in January.  Now, this is pretty interesting because a lot of spoon-feeders (pseudo-economists) didn't even question the rise in construction jobs when the weather was some of the worst in recent memory - and the retail jobs increase looked suspicious because there was virtually no hiring at Christmas.  The "cleansed" version of the story is being found on places like: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAYRU2CCQD.html.

But hole on a minute.  Without even commenting on Democrats pointing out that 90,000 people per week are falling off the government's nose count, let's look at the OFFICIAL numbers contained in the Alternative Measures of Unemployment table at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm which shows that unemployment this year is 10.9% - statistically a dead heat with last January's 11% reading.  Within margins of error.

Want a simple prediction?  Look for the BLS to come under heavy-handed pressure from the Bushocrats who obviusly don't want numbers like this 10.9% measurement getting out to the public.  How do they fix it?  A couple of ways:  1) Don't be surprised if we don't see some personnel changes at BLS and 2) don't be resurprised if between now and election day we don't see somne sudden "revisions" of the "alternatrive measures" table to spruce up the numbers so they will look a little prettier than the crap coming in now.

Of course that won't change anything, and worse, Kerry is just another Yale secret club crony wrapped up in new marketing gear, but regardless of who leads in the polls, the BLS numbers are pointing at the emperor's clothing...

Moscow Blast - Bot's Right Sixth Time?

We read this morning the reports of the Moscow Subway blast which has killed 40- and injured hundreds of others.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3464545.stm.  A lone female bomber.  Now, click back to what Cliff & I put out during our AM Coast to Coast interview with Art Bell in early January: 

"The obvious interpretation, which is rarely correct, is that an attack will be undertaken by a pair of attackers (one male, one female) using 3 explosives to set off some form of respiratory distress weapon in a crowded place which was approached from a tunnel. It is very unlikely that any plot this neat and tidily encapsulated is close to developing events. The Universe is rarely so orderly and the truth of developing circumstance is usually far more convoluted than most humans care to pursue. In the case of this ALTA interpretation, the data set is so small, and our 'condensation' lexicon scales so slowly at low read levels that the reliability factor on this is considered to be low. "

So we're looking at the Moscow subway incident going ..."hmmmm"  It fits within the usual timeframe of such predictions (usually inside 60 days) and if there were to be another attack, this time with a male bomber as a follow on, then it would be very close to a direct hit.  As usual, we aren't saying this was "IT" but it's something that meets are least a few of the attributes.  We'll be watching for a follow on event and perhaps an unexploded bomb being discovered at some point.  To us, that would be a clincher, but remember, we're also hamstrung by unemployment and a lack of bandwidth at this point.

Bot Warning

We have to admit getting a bit weirded out by the latest hypspatial geometry work.  Looks like Feb 9 to 5-days later will be a BIG earthquake, and then in late March another very large events.  Around the 25 _ plus a few days after for the window.  Our usual advise is to be well stocked for chance that the maths will be right.

Collapsing Walbucks

We've noticed an interesting trend - one that is very interesting indeed: As the U.S. gets hit with a tough economic assault, it's usually preceded by a massive attack on gold.  Well, with gold recently under $400 an ounce, but snapping up $7.00+ today, we notice that the jobs numbers have not helped the falling U.S. dollar.  http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1075982326577&p=1012571727088

Thinking Republicans

As odd as it sounds, I still have (limited) hope for the Republican party.  Why, you might ask?  Some of the party leadership has been paying attention to Bush screw ups like the latest insane plan to let illegals become citizens.  Go read http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040205-115100-7758r.htm and realize that yes, there really are some bright Republican's who "get it."  Not a lot maybe...but some....

Thursday

The Productivity Lie Redux

Maybe it's because I actually had to do a lot of work to pick up my MBA back when, or maybe it's because a lot of business reporters don't have business degrees, but whatever the reason the simple truth of the Fed's Great Productivity Lie goes something like this.

Let's say you have 10 workers and they make 100 widgets all told.  But one of the workers is in research & development and one is in a "soft" market position.  Whatever the function though, the company supports 10 workers to make 100 widgets and that's an average of 10 widgets per workers, right?

OK, let let's fire the R&D worker.  This means we now have 9 workers making the same 100 widgets. That's 11.11 widgets per worker. 

Now here's the trick:  When you're the Fed you get to proclaim this as an economic miracle because the productivity has increase (11.11/10) or  a productivity increase of 11.1%!  Is this a great economic miracle or what.  About the unemployment?  That fellow in R&D was given a job for 6-months as a "consultant" and because he was doing that without paying into the state unemployment fund, when he was finally let loose, he was invisible.

Now our next sleight of hand.  We're now going to fire that person in the "soft" marketing spot.  That means we now have 8 people making 100 widgets, which means we have 12.5 widgets per person.  So what if we have now fired 20% of the workforce?  That's not the Fed's measurement point.  THEIR measurement point shows that productivity is up 25%.  Hallelujah brother, American workers are the most gung ho on the planet.  Amen.  That Bush feller and his buddy Al Greenspan are sure making this a great economy, huh?

Heck, with productivity jumping, the stock price is bound to go up, right?  And so it was.

Low let's put the final piece of decoration on this half-baked economic cake.  Let's outsource two more jobs - in fact let's make them customer service jobs - and put them in Mumbai India.  Now we're down to just six employees making the same 100 widgets.  That's a whopping 16.66 widgets per worker, or a 66.6% increase in productivity!

And so it goes, with a heavy heart, that I read stories like the piece on the wires this morning reporting that:

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business productivity rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter and at the lowest rate in a year and jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, government reports showed on Thursday. Non-farm business productivity, or worker output per hour, increased at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the final three months of the year after an upwardly revised 9.5 percent pace in the previous quarter, the Labor Department said.

The advance was the slowest since a 1.5 percent gain in the final quarter of 2002 and was lower than the 3.0 percent clip expected by analysts.

Unit labor costs fell 1.3 percent, a larger drop than the 0.8 percent decline expected by analysts, after a 5.6 percent tumble in the third quarter. "
Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040205/economy_2.html

When you read the 10-K and 8-K of some of the "genius" companies in today's market, try to look at something beyond how many workers and how many widgets.  Ask about R&D, soft marketing, out sourcing, and just for the hell of it, social responsibility. 

As the numbers on productivity slow, I think you're going to start seeing the truth of what really goes on with today's slash & outsourcing mode of so-called management.  Remember, as we found from following up with a bank that claimed it had "no foreign employees", the only reason they didn't was they used a contractor - which means a "vendor" and shoot darn, if you're driving a Camry, that makes Toyota your foreign vendor, and that's not so bad, is it?

Bonesman #2 Profile

If you've been reading our recent comments on how John Kerry is nothing more than Yale Skull & Bonesman George Bush repackaged, take a quick scan through the piece this morning in the New York Post at http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/17337.htm.  Do you know who I am?  Give me a break.  Same in crowd connections, different packaging.  Please, God, no more Yale presidents...please?

A.Q. Warns

Yeah, here we go again, al Qaida out with a new warning that "something big is going to happen..."  http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_5.html .  Meantime, several skeptical readers are wondering about that ricin found in D.C. and asking "Who stands to gain, besides the Department of Homeland Security?"  We would never besmirch the name of DHS, but it's curious how Condi Rice is not being sworn on her 9/11 testimony and how the ricin sort of "shows up" when terror concerns are coming down.  Hmmm.

Web Bot Update

OK, don't take any of this too seriously, but there are several things that keep popping up in the web bot returns from the few critters we still have casting about the 'net.  For one, there's still a major earthquake seeming likely around Feb 8-10 with Feb 9/10 most likely. 

"For what it is worth, my geometry shows a snap back of the vector forces will hit the earth some time in the 3rd or 4th day past the maximum angular pull. And that the Cal vertex is direct facing to the sun at that point. This is the same situation that was in effect prior to Xmas when the Ca quake hit. However the pull levels this time are just under 20 per cent larger. I suspect that sometime in the 4 days following the 9th of feb we will have a big *ss West coast eq....

If the maths are correct, then we will see at least 3 large quakes in the 9th through the 13th. Then the real scary one is Mar 24th/25th as that energy level looks to be over 60 per cent larger than Xmas one which caused CA/Iran....

my problem is that I have the algorithms for the vector analysis but only some of the data....so these are predicated on NOT having 3 of the reducable variables have any values. But still, pegged the December period to the day.."

Another thing that has popped up is a reference to the Pope suffering ill health around February 15/16 with a chance of his passing on this month.  We hope the web bots are wrong on this, but that's what the data seems to be pointing toward. 

If you caught the Art Bell show, you  may be interested that we're coming up on the 45 day market for the male and female terrorist attack with three explosives, one of which doesn't go off, but the two that do causing respiratory distress prediction.  The 45-day market would be in about a week.  Remember, with web bots, the long the lead time from when an entity becomes visible, the larger the event is likely to be.

Our disclaimer to all of this is that we're running on just about zero bandwidth with both Cliff and I now unemployed, we don't have the resources to pursue the larger work.  In fact, we're both on crummy dial ups right now.  So all of this is peering at the future through a pin prick sized hole with a piece of glass smeared with Vaseline in front of that, so our accuracy is bound to suffer.

VP  Dick's Ducks:

Vice President Oil's lame attempt to ignore his taking a Supreme Courter duck hunting is still making headlines.  Remember as you read the article at http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/politics/2388750 that the Veep's Energy Task Force case is about to be heard by the Supreme Court - and do you think the justice involved will step aside?  Or, will this be another case of double standards?

Let's face it, if you were up for a DWO/DUI case and before your trial, you took the judge duck hunting in your government jet, don't you think the judge should excuse himself from your case?  Not if you're Dick, you don't. 

What's the big ugly secret that the Energy Task Force doesn't want out?  Our sources tell is it's about Peak Oil, how it's here now, and without some dramatic changes in lifestyle, the whole Western  energy-intensive culture is headed for a cliff...  Yeah, I can see why that oughta be redacted, at least till after the election.

Wednesday

Advisory:

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What's Condi Hiding?

We note with particular interest today the report that Condi Rice will be talking to the 9/11 Commission this weekend under extraordinary conditions.  First, the comments she makes will not be sworn - and secondly - what she says won't be on the record: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash4.htm We've been watching the expressions of Ms Rice when she's been in the background at a lot of Bush events, and clearly she looks bothered by something - some great weight on her shoulders.  We're wondering what it might be?  Does she know a lot more about the events surrounding 9/11 than she lets on?  And, in light of all the promises of a full and complete public investigation, it seems curious to us that she somehow gets to skate on swearing what she knew.  Special privileges don't sit well with voters, especially during an election year, Mr. Bush!  What's to hide?  Why no oath?

Message from Oregon

We've been looking at Oregon for years as a leading edge indicator about social moods.  Notice what Oregon did yesterday?  Turned down a tax increase and agreed to lower services:  http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAKJT5H9QD.html.

No surprise with Kerry coming out on top.  A yawner, but mentionable: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3452997.stm

Cisco Slows   

The networking giant Cisco slowed in the most recent report: http://www.nypost.com/business/17263.htm.m  Not to be surprised here, though.  As we all know, with no job growth in America, pouring a lot of money into expanded IT functionality is a joke.  Offshoring continues and the results will plague U.S. companies for years.

Sort of related:  Oracle is raising its bid for Peoplesoft:  http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAH22RF9QD.html Reason is clear:  The rest of the database world is languishing (see reasons above, right?)  So in order to pump revenue Oracle wants to buy Peoplesoft...and as the revenue for Oracle slow look for the bids for Peoplesoft to go up.  We all know that in a severe recession (or the Greater Depression here) the money being sunk into education will increase and a huge hunk of Peoplesoft revenue comes from that sector.

Kill the Messenger?

A Washington DC official who warned of dangerously high levels of lead in public water systems was bounced for blowing the whistle.  Come on, look surprised, will yah?  http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10565-2004Feb3?language=printer.

Tuesday

Is Terror Back?

The discovery of suspected Ricin poison at three government office buildings in Washington would cause most people to ask whether terrorism is back and wearing a new face.  In fact, most recently today there are reports of a suspect white powder being found at a postal facility in Connecticut.  http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040203/D80FQ3TG0.html.  Regardless of the media hype that is likely to develop, we sincerely doubt that this would be the work of al Qaida.  There are several reasons to be skeptical.

First, as we have noted from our earlier work, the al Qaida folks are fighting a war with Western Capitalism, and because the targets have been political this time, it is doubtful that al Qaida is behind them.  Further, al Qaida seems to be partial toward things that go "Boom!" like bombs and such.  No bomb, no boom involved in this. 

What is more likely seems to be a radical political group, perhaps something like environmental terrorists.  Perhaps a left wing group striking out at the right for opening up natural gas drilling in previously protected areas (because we're all but out of oil) or something like that.

Bush's Service?

John Kerry, the apparent replacement Skull & Bones candidate for the White House, is taking on George Bush's militarty record.  As we have noted on several previous occasions, Bush's record in the Texas Air National Guard are open to interpretation and Kerry's going for it.  http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/034/nation/Kerry_calls_on_Bush_to_settle_questions_on_military_recordP.shtml.  Whether Bush was AWOL during part of his term is certainly bound to come up.

Speaking of Military...   

The new Bush budget plays hide and seek with fund for Iraq and Afghanistan operations: http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/7858468.htm.  The Texas Wrangler is going to hold off his war fund request until after the elections.  Come on, look surprised...

Killing the Next Goose

There is an interesting article about how venture groups are starting to look at how to make a buck in this jobjacking and offshoring business.  http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/040203/sb20040228952_sb020_1.html  The problem most profiteers don't realize is that in offshoring, there are virtually no barriers to entry.  Find some people in a foreign country who can speak English and give 'em a phone line to the U.S.  Presto!  Displaced higher paid U.S. workers. Is the news all bad?  Heck no.  Over the next 3-5 years, like everything else in the world, we'll end up with an excess of offshore capacity too and that means that prices will be cut to the bone and as a result, no one will be making money at it.  But, that's on the other side of the election, so screwing over workers is fine for global corporatists for now...

Sprint Earnings

I note that Sprint made $38-million in profits in their latest quarter, beating analysts expectations.  http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAI5L818QD.html I expect one reason is that Sprint has failed to provide DSL service to large portions of its service area.  I've actually gone so far as to file a complaint with the Texas Utility Commission because my neighbors have been promised "DSL in the next three months or so..." for several years now.

This week's Inside Report should be interesting...Why Robotics will force a new kind of Economy.  If you thought super-human corporate rights were a problem, brother (or sister) you ain't seen nothing yet...

Monday

Defending Against Whom?

Just as the Russian plans to do a large-scale test of their nuclear "deterrent" later this month sounds sort of fishy, so do the plans of the administration to field the first of its  anti-missile units later this year.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A4411-2004Feb1?language=printer.  Maybe the years of news reporting has left me skeptical of everything, but this somehow doesn't feel right.  Tell you what looks even more ominous when coupled with this:  The report that the Chinese are beginning to pour money into civil defense... http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-02/02/content_1294420.htm

China on Phenol

China Radio International is reporting that it's slapping sanctions on the U.S., Japan, and other nations that send it phenol, an industrial chemical if we made it out through the static crashes OK.  They charge dumping and plan actions.  We wouldn't have picked up on this except for a bit of insomnia and a good shortwave receiver next to the bed (with headphones so as not to disturb Elaine...).

Genius Level Headline

"December spending up less than expected" reads the headline.  Expected?  By who?  Given the huge  increases in the number of people unemployed - including me - I'm surprised spending went up even a little bit.  http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040202/economy_income_1.html  Must be all those welcomed with open arms illegals, huh?

More Genius?

Here's one that is nearly as laughable  A report that self employment may mask real job growth: http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=3BHF0VAZMGJ52CRBAEOCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=4256558 How the hell can you mask 21-million unemployed?

Speaking of unemployed:  I'm about to launch the first-ever survey of the unemployed.  Now that I'm out of a gig, I thought it wouild be interesting to get a snapshot of how my brethren are doing.  If you have specific questions about the unemployed, please write me at mailto:george@ure.net but realize that if your request comes from a .gov address you might be ridiculed a bit.

Taxing the Internet - Update

With our expectation that within a year or two we will have full-fledged taxation of the Internet, both because it'll be a major Depression marker, and because government will see dollar signs, we note with interest (perhaps curiosity would be a more proper term) that the State of New York is asking people to fess up to all those Amazon books and electronics purchased online and self report sales tax.  http://www.rochesterdandc.com/biznews/02010834S71_business.shtml  Anyone up there been through a drug screening lately? 

Super Bra Show

Like Pappy used to say, "You seen one, you seen 'em both."  Who cared?  Although it's an interesting way to counter-program against the Lingerie Bowl, which was marketed more honestly.

Texas Adventures

Tomorrow, if it's not raining, and if it's not a national holiday in Texas, and if the County Courthouse is open and if Elaine can dig out her Florida car title, we will get the other vee-kull registration done.  Apparently, says one reader, I'm not yet speakin' Texican right..

"As I told you a while back, my family has been in Texas since the Republic.  You are making some fundamental communication errors.

 

It is NEVER the local dealership. It is the Dodge House, the Ford House, etc.

It is NOT A garage, it is a Car Shed

It is NOT a safe room, it is never a storm cellar,  it is a Storm House.

 

When its time to leave, all you say is IT'S TIME TO GO TO THE HOUSE.

 

Most of the problems you are having are because you don't know how to communicate in TEXICAN."

Well I'm gonna take a run up tah tha money shed in Tyler this mornin and then maybe pick us up sum steaks at the food store on the way back tah the house tahday.  We've got a contractor fella comin by the spread later on tahday tah give us an estimate on rebuildin' the  house. 

Maybe this is more like it?  Rather than "Texican", I would have thought a more socially conscious term might be appropriate for the good folks who turn the word "yup" into three syllables or more. Texican just doesn't have the marketing flair.   Something like Texbonics...yeah, that's it...Texbonics.  Use it three times and send the royalty checks to us here at the house...

Sunday

Nukes Against Whom?

We read with some concern that the Russians are planning to exercise some of their nuclear forces later this month.  http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/01/30/international1332EST0582.DTL&type=printable.  While we have all be lead to think that detente' has buried the nuclear hatchet, it's still a concern that such a large-scale exercise is planned.

Hajj Stampede

The pilgrims to the Hajj at Mecca saw nearly 250 fellow worshippers trampled to death Saturday.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3448779.stm.  Despite the deaths, the event continues as scheduled today.

Saudis Warn Terrorists

This is one of those stories that takes a bit of context.  You remember that the country where the 9/11 hijackers came from was Saudi Arabia, right?  And you'll recall that the largest concentration of the military Wahabi sect of Islam is in Saudi Arabia, right?  And you already know that the only reason the Saudi royalty hasn't been overthrown is because of how they pass around money to the "right" people in the kingdom, and have huge amounts of U.S. resource at their disposal to keep them in place.  Well, with all that in mind, it then comes as no surprise when the Saudis issue a warning against terrorism: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3448735.stm,. We can almost hear the ghost writers in Washington in this one...

Another Day,  Another Bombing...

Militants in Iraq sure seem to love things that go "Boom!"  Another bombing today: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAG4JXH4QD.html.  

Meantime, al Jazeera, which we have admired for their coverage of Middle East events, has been rapped on the knuckles for coverage of U.S. actions in Iraq.  The Punishment:  Can't cover U.S.-installed government meetings for a while: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FDAE4C28-ACEB-4C54-88CE-DA2C5E8FE992.htm

Forty-something...

Not age!  That's the number of dead microbiologists that have turned up since 9/11/01.  http://www.rense.com/general48/moredead.htm

Mailbag:

It's cleansing to go through the mail I get and respond to some reader inquiries and remarks.  Some of the mail I get is absolutely brilliant.  Take this piece received in response to my continued skepticism of economic numbers from the government, and in particular the GDP hoax:

. . . Hmmm...so the rate of increase has fallen in half...this is almost a sign of honesty. Not completely, but it's a sign that enough people like you and me have been reading the news releases that the feds are finally admitting that the GDP may not be soaring the way they were hoping it would.

"Hi, George. Consider that the economy is said to have grown 3.1% for '03, but Q3-Q4 aggregate annualized growth contributed ~3.05% (8.2% for Q3 and 4% for Q4), suggesting that there was little or no real growth in Q1-Q2.

Moreover, note that real productivity is growing at an annualized rate of ~5%-6% or roughly the rate of "nominal" GDP. Summing the labor market annual growth rate of ~1.1% and the real productivity rate of ~5.6%, and the real rate of GDP needs to grow at ~5.0% (adjusting the labor supply for inflation) to sustain growth of investment, profits, payrolls, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and to allow the U rate to fall, leaving us with an output gap of ~1.9%.

Note from the chart that the output gap typically goes negative during recoveries/expansions, which has yet to occur; however, also note that real money supply rapidly decelerates toward and below zero YoY when the Fed has been raising rates in response to rising inflation, capacity constraints, and rising wages/salaries at or near the business cycle peak, typically with the output gap reaching a cyclical trough.

Today, we have a persistent output gap, decelerating reported CPI, payroll and real wage growth still negative YoY, total cap. util. at ~76% (instead of above 80% during previous periods of falling real money supply), real M3 is threatening to contract YoY, and the Fed is highly accommodative (or irrelevant, depending upon your perspective).

And, with Asian, No. Amer., and EU GDP PPP at or near parity, the real, trade-weighted US$ having fallen sufficiently to lose the trade gap within 18-24 months, and the EU to join the US and Japan in running deficits/GDP of 5%+, the US$ has likely bottomed (at least on a YoY ROC basis), currencies will now trend toward par with one another, gold and Treasury yields have topped, and US real money supply will soon contract YoY, setting the stage for a contraction in US industrial production later in '04 or in early '05, coincident with the onset of the next global slowdown/recession at that time. As real money supply and GDP contract and decelerate respectively, the output gap and budget deficit will widen, putting further pressure on revenues, profits, and payrolls. 

In the above context, a rising US$ or a US$ which no longer falls to keep the reflationary effect going, i.e., deflationary scenario, will likely coincide with a slowing of growth in China, which risks increasing the stress on China's fragile, immature banking system, setting the stage for the potential for a real estate and stock market crash in China to rival the Asian Crisis or 1890s situation in the US.

The caveat here is that it is possible that real money supply could turn on a dime here and cap. util. could rise, narrowing the output gap toward zero and then negative as payrolls expand and production and GDP sustain a 3%-4% rate of growth; however, as I suspect that we are seeing the transition to the negative phase of the Kuznets Cycle to resolve the LW Trough with a real estate slowdown, we should begin to see a deceleration of production, PCE, and housing by the second half (if not sooner), whereas the stock market should soon reflect the cyclical slowdown in '05. "

Like I said, some incredibly bright readers, huh?   Then there's this one:

"What would be the figures of the Aggregate Index if expressed in gold instead of dollar? I mean the volatility of exchange rates makes it difficult to compare the great depression chart and the contemporary crisis chart. I wonder if both charts would be that far from one another if they were converted into gold expression. Maybe would it be interesting too to express both charts in a composite index such as gold+oil or gold+oil+food producing land for instance.

As a matter of fact, when you take the DIJA and say the CAC40 on the last two years period, the perception of the evolution is not the same from both sides of the Atlantic ocean. For an American investors, everything is doing quite well (CAC40 in USD is +4% and DJIA in USD is +4 % too). Whereas for an European, CAC40 is -25% and DJIA is -25%. When both indexes are expresses in gold, the evolution is -28% in both cases. "

This is a good idea...if I get some time I will work on it for you.

On my recent criticism of the Texas Department of Public Safety's gauntlet that folks have to go through to get a car licensed, a process which took a half a day and 6-stops to do - and I'm not in a crowded urban area where I suspect a person could get a couple of days tied up, a fellow Republic resident write...

I resemble that remark! Actually, I've lived in Texas most of my life and I also hate going to DPS. The way I see it, if a burned out house and a few DPS civil workers didn't scare you away by now, then brother, you were meant to be one of us Texans! God bless you, man. I'll be keepin' you guys in my prayers. Drop a line if y'all ever pass through San Antonio. Thanks for your great work on the weekly newsletter and the daily updates.

Unfortunately, the tale of the Texas drivers license and plates gets even better.  On Thursday Elaine and I decided to get her car licensed.  Having been through the gauntlet the day before, we figured that we would be able to drop back to just three stops (vehicle inspection station, the courthouse for the plates, and DPS for the license).  Did it work?  Hell no. 

We got to the inspection station and were marveling at the lack of a line only to be informed that "Sorry, sir, we cain't do inspections when the road is wet 'cuz we hafta do a panic braking test..."  Elaine muttered something about excreting fire to save matches, apparently one of those Southwest phrases that Northern wimps don't know much about.  We vowed to return on Friday.

Well, come Friday morning, we took off bright and early for the inspection.  We showed up at 2 PM only to be informed "Sorry mister, but our inspector is at lunch..."

At 2 o'clock in the afternoon???  "Yessir, he'll be back at 3 PM."

We then found out we could have gotten the inspection done at the local Dodge dealer, which would have saved 6 miles of additional driving.  So finally, about 3 PM, we showed up at the courthouse for the plates.

"Sorry, mam.  If you don't have a lien holder, you have to bring in the original title..."  (E muttered something about saving matches again...)  "I do have a number you can call to get the title from Florida though..."

Well, don't you know that by the time we got to this revelation, it was 3:30 in Texas which meant past Miller time in Florida before we back back to the ranch.  But I swear to you, at some point we're going to get our vehicles licensed here.  One down, one to go, and only 4-trips to town (10-miles each way) to do it.

Another reader suggests that this multiple hoop jump system will spread like crazy:

"The new law in Virginia requires one to prove who they are and where they were born. Show your birth certificate, Mister.

All a result of al Qaida terrorists getting Virginia drivers' licenses."

Some of the mail has some fair criticism in it.  For example:

"Like the Sunday Bible banger who preaches fire, brimstone, and damnation on Sunday, yet stops at a topless bar three nights a week on the way home from work, I find double standards offensive."

I also find stereo-typing offensive. Being a Christian for 12 years and having many dear friends who are devout believers, I NEVER met the above person.

"I've got to wonder what kind of a world we would have if there were no regulation of morality, save non-interference with our fellow humans."

You are dreaming right? Ask yourself this, what kind of world would this be if there was no Bible and no Ten Commandments? So if someone wanted to have sex with your wife, that would be okay if she wanted to? According to your philosophy, you can't say anything, because you would be interfering with another human being. I hope you did not push your "standards" on your children, because that would be sin in your Bible.

At least I have hope after death. Prosperity is fine when you realize it is only temporary, "cuz, there ain't no U-Haul, in a Funeral Procession", said by an old Sunday Bible banger who never stepped foot in a topless bar. Naked you came into this world George, and naked you will leave it.

What's funny is you can spout this "its wrong to legislate morality" jargon in light of man's history. History declares the truth, that without outside inducement from both the State and God to act within a certain boundary, man would be extinct, because man is inherently evil and selfish.

"Romans 13: 1-7 ¶ Let every soul be subject unto the higher powers. For there is no power but of God: the powers that be are ordained of God. Whosoever therefore resisteth the power, resisteth the ordinance of God: and they that resist shall receive to themselves damnation. For rulers are not a terror to good works, but to the evil. Wilt thou then not be afraid of the power? do that which is good, and thou shalt have praise of the same: For he is the minister of God to thee for good. But if thou do that which is evil, be afraid; for he beareth not the sword in vain: for he is the minister of God, a revenger to execute wrath upon him that doeth evil. Wherefore ye must needs be subject, not only for wrath, but also for conscience sake. For for this cause pay ye tribute also: for they are God’s ministers, attending continually upon this very thing. Render therefore to all their dues: tribute to whom tribute is due; custom to whom custom; fear to whom fear; honour to whom honour.

Man, you got me seriously questioning your insight into economic matters.

Have a great day.

Well, hold up a minute.  I did not - and would not - infer that most Christians are anything but sincere, but as to meeting the above captioned person, I absolutely have met them.  Weekend Christians.

On the regulation of morality point, I've got no quarrel with any of the 10 Commandments, but I would like to point out that they really do embody non-interference with our fellow humans.  Adultery, for example, is interference with a union between a couple. Murder is the ultimate interference, and honoring your mother and father should go a bit deeper than sucking up at college tuition time.

I too have hope after death because I know there is Something that is larger than here-and-now, so let's not look for the minor points that may divide us, but celebrate that which we agree on.

As for questioning my insight into economic matters, Forbes seems to share the same concern.

One more, before I get back to work on Inside Report?  OK, another criticism:

"<<<I may be a bit too much of a Constitutional cowboy on this, but as best I can tell, there should never have been the FCC's seven bad words you weren't supposed to say on the radio. To limit the expression of free speech is expressly forbidden by the Constitution. More important, in the world of broadcasting, people always have the opportunity to vote by pushing another channel.">>>

Are you sure you really mean this? What would be your position if you had a four year old listening to the radio, and suddenly someone said, "F*ck You", followed by "Go to hell, eat sh*t and die, you mother f*cker". Would that be acceptable to you? The only option would be to not listen to the radio, since any station, at any time, could spit out foul language. You have surprised me, nonetheless. "

Sorry, didn't mean to surprise you.  But, check it out:  In a market-driven world - where kids are just about completely ignored as adults park them with surrogates while they are force-marched to chase dollars, the present system is what we have - community standards and so forth.  What I think would really happen is what Christian Radio is already doing - providing a reliable non-violent alternative.

Over time, in an unregulated world, we would have seen radio evolve trust with its listeners.  Any station, any time, doesn't just spit out foul language because it has suddenly come down with Tourette's Syndrome.  It spits out a language that communicates with an audience.  That same "trust" is why you don't hear Talking Heads on the local Country Station.  There's a merchant/customer trust that keeps radio in a set of expectations.  In broadcasting, we call these psychographics.  See pages like http://www.bcentral.com/articles/krotz/108.asp?MSID=0883da27a91d480e974d6b1fc68b42f7   for more on the art and science of this.

Back in 1973, I was offered a job doing morning news at the then-biggest rock station in San Francisco, KFRC. I didn't take the job, but in retrospect, I wonder what would have happened if I had.  Anyway,  I got to talking with the PD (program director) Les Garland about his philosophy of programming.  He summed that trust relationship between the station and its audience this way:

"You can't give the people what they need.  And, you can't give the people what they think they want.  All you can do is give them what they think they are getting..."

For that audience, at that time, KFRC was just about perfectly dialed in to the mindset of rock & roll San Francisco, and it's why even to this day, KFRC is able to trade on its relationship as the Super 610. 

Recurrent merchant relationships are about trust.  When you think about it, you'll see that being traded on when a pick up truck features four generations of drivers, or when a soft drink reminds you it's always Coca Cola.  Radio stations that break listener trust and expectations die off quickly.

Click over to http://www.reelradio.com/philpott/index.html#tomorrow and scroll down to the streaming audio of Tomorrow Radio, a 17-minute glimpse into what radio is really all about (you might need a high speed connection for this). 

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Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it.

George Ure

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All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted