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SARS Tracking
This report was accidentally over written in the process of updating the site. This was brought to my attention by a reader in France, to whom I am indebted for noticing the problem.
Although I can't reproduce the entire report from memory, here is a current projection as of 4/19 of the probably track of SARS over the next year or so based on a linear projection which is contained in the attached spreadsheet which you can download.
Here's the information you'll find useful if you choose to track SARS yourself:
What I’ve done is set up a spreadsheet called “current data” where the data is arranged like so:
Column A: Date of WHO report.
Column B: Actual number of infected (black) of estimated based on most conservative projections of 3%/day growth in number of cases reported.
Column C: (aqua color) Number of new cases from the previous day (calculation)
Column D: (aqua color) Percentage increase over previous day
Column E: Projected number of dead based on the mortality percent in yellow cell E:3
Column F: Actual number of dead based on most recent WHO report
Column G: (aqua color) Death Variance: Number of dead above (-or below) Projected based on E:3 rate
Column H: (aqua color) Mortality percentage (on number of infected reported by WHO)
Column I: (aqua color) Theoretical number of dead to expect for the date based on cases reported previous day.
There is both good news and bad about the propensity of health authorities to become more rigorous in their declaring cases to be SARS. The good news is that it makes the world look a little bit safer in that such discrimination in case reporting lowers the apparent size of the infection. However, the bad news is that it unfortunately increases the mortality percentage as the number of people is a hard thing to argue with. Either way, we're looking at sometime between now and September of 2004 having virtually everyone in the world exposed and in the process, we stand to lose, at present mortality rates, more than 313 million dead.
I hope this helps your researches. The daily WHO report is public most days (except Sundays) between 11 AM and !@PM EDT at http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/en/