Urban Survival: Free Daily Economic News Update Page

Less than 24-hours after HPH went down due to the DNS being hacked, we found our own computer fried. However, today's update was late due to a perfectly reasonable explanation - a static hit on our main modem during the thunderstorms through North Texas last night that dumped just under 3 inches of rain in 24 hours with numerous incredible lightning strikes. It looks like HPH will not be putting the two parts of the most recent web bot runs out free via this site as Cliff's site is back up and running normally.

Now that I've had my day shredded by modem interuptus (I picked up a spare, so when it happens again, it won't be a 4-hour problem - it will be a 10-minute problem. Let's see, where were we? Oh yes...

Iraq Still a Mess

I didn't miss much with the main PC down (the laptop was working fine as well as two other back up computers). The Cleric and his followers still control the shrine: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3585398.stm and the government has issued an ultimatum: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D08B5649-F587-4E15-AF9C-C489454992E2.htm

Opposition in Bangladesh has been hit with a bombing: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/default.stm,

Do You Remember the Vote?

The US is said to back Israeli settlement growth,...that is, someone in the BUSH ADMINISTRATION has given the green light to expansion of the illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank - so sayeth the NY Times - picked up by the Arab press: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/25D9324A-C3FD-44AD-90A7-66717ECE5D75.htm Do you remember anyone in Congress representing us taxpayers as taking a vote on this? How much campaign cash does this raise? Or, is it the payoff before the strike to get the Israelis to attack Iran's nuclear installations? This is effectively burning the "road map for peace."

Russians Up Defense Spending

So again, we ask, what are they increasing arms spending for? Russia's defense budget is scheduled to grow 27% in 2005. http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/20/defensebudget.shtml

Friday

10:30 A Friday Special Update

Charley Cover-up

Just in from a very reliable source - more on the rumored cover-up of the Hurricane Charley death toll:

"A buddy of mine lives in ********, FL. He lives on the leeward side of a hill and had little more than a nice breeze when the 'cane went over.

To the point, though, is that he works in video/film and has a number of friends who work in news in and around Punta Gorda. He has viewed raw footage of the destruction that blows away anything we are getting on the feeds. He reports tractor-trailer reefers full of body bags. No counts, but he is told there are hundreds. Every time a cameraman gets near the bodies, they are firmly "dissuaded" from shooting. Most of the stuff he is seeing is shot from a distance using 2x and 4x extenders. I am working on getting him to send me a broadcast quality raw tape dub. If nothing else, I will be out there in October. More as I get it.

One reason for the hidden count might be that a large count would lessen the impact of the 2,800 lives at the WTC just before *** plans to exploit them at the RNC. Another would be to hide the severely depleted National Guard there in Florida.

Interesting: many calls to the region are being intercepted by FEMA recorded message. Look up a number in Punta Gorda and give it a call. See what you get..."

Hijacking phone calls to keep the lid on? "Dissuading" reporters & cameramen? Does this sound like the the America we love and its Constitution to you? All hail the Emperor's Brother!

Controversial Web Bot Run May Go Public

If Earthlink is not able to quickly repair the DNS hack of www.halfpasthuman.com, we may put both parts 1 & 2 up here on UrbanSurvival. If this site mysteriously goes down, you'll know that something in Part 2 of the latest run really hit someone's nerves. The bot forecast of gold soaring like the sun is certainly right on - gold up $7.50 for the day so far! As one HPH/UrbanSurvival reader notes:

"Thanks for letting us know about half past human. When it "couldn't be found" last night, I figured somehow the DNS entry had been erased. Very strange, eh? Are you talking about part 2, because luckily I printed that out right after it went up. Well I betcha anything those references to Bushco being universally blamed for whatever happens in September were the number one reason. Followed by the scary lightning storms... Guess they haven't figured out that killing the messenger isn't going to make it go away, no? ;-)"

Saudis: Can't Produce More Oil

Matt Savinar over at www.lifeafterhteoilcrash.net has been on a special watch for stories related to oil production limiting out because it's hinted at in the latest web bot runs. He found an interesting post on Thursday about the Saudis falling 400,000 barrels under production expectations just this past month:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/61754

One of the scenarios that would fit with the most recent bot forecasts would be a drop in oil production and the public's necessary reaction to that. Meantime, oil today is just shy of $50 a barrel: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040820/oil_prices_11.html

Iran Warning

Iran (which controls about 4% of the world's oil supplies) today is warning the west (e.g. Israel, which would act with the U.S.'s blessings) that it better not attack its nuclear facilities. The basic line of the STORY is that Iran may go to war first if it looks like the Israelis are ready to launch against them.

Charley: 50,000 Dead?

If you're wondering why officials in Florida are spending so much time "surveying" the damage left in the aftermath of Charley, and aren't really cleaning things up yet, try this on: A cover-up of the death toll? I'm not sure I'd place the number at 50,000, but Jim McCanney who has been writing about the sun-earth weather connection for years thinks it might go that high: http://www.jmccanneyscience.com/. And why would there be any effort to cover up the death count? Elections?

From people claiming to be witness or having first hand knowledge that illegal aliens who died are not being counted at all. Lots of low level traffic reporting cover-up.

Campaign Hackers?

Earthlink has not yet (as of 8:04 AM CDT today) been able to restore www.halfpasthuman.com. That the outage happened minutes after the latest web bot update, which we judge to have politically sensitive content, was posted is questionably coincidental. In fact, one reader wonders if it's more than coincidence. It's a definite DNS hack and HPH will be back as soon as possible. But it's not a rapid process. This must be one hell of a run, huh?

Meantime, there's an interesting story about a U.S. firm being involved in exit polling (which was way wrong) in Venezuela: http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4435157,00.html Say what you will about Venezuela, I sure like the idea of no exit polls or election reporting until the last voter's booth has closed in Hawaii and Alaska. Wouldn't that be refreshing?

Water Aspect

Although it's too early to be the water aspect predicted by the web bots, the amount of water falling out of the skies is indeed becoming impressive. Here at the ranch, we recorded 1.75" from a couple of thunderstorms through the area yesterday afternoon. But that's nothing compared to the sloshing in Denver: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/3665466/detail.html Besides Denver, and Las Vegas http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=8810 look at flooding in:

Scotland http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3377645
England: Link
India: http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/002200408201736.htm
Pakistan: http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=8810

And recent significant mud slides in:

Washington State: http://www.kirotv.com/traffic/3666328/detail.html
Colorado: Link
Yellowstone: Link

The logical person might easily conclude that as global warming puts billions of gallons of water into the atmosphere through evaporation from the warmer oceans, there will be more water to come down when the air gets cold. So we should probably expect, rather than be surprised by, floods of what was previously once-a-century magnitude.

Economist Explains

Yesterday, in my role as the people's economist, a couple of readers took me to task for my "Cost of Robbery Theorem. The thrust of his argument was that if more than one robber is involved, the cost of the robbery doesn't go up that much so as to make it uneconomic.

Wrong! Look at the previously incurred costs of Russia, Germany, and France. They had already made substantial investments in terms of loans, loan guarantees, and goods (supply contracts). This must be considered when one applies the cost of robbery theorem. So if France, for example, had already invested a billion, then their cost of prosecuting a war against Iraq would essentially involve torching their own assets - I hold that the theorem works.

Another writes:

"I'm a big fan of yours, but you're wrong about this one. The US will never profit from this war. This is a war of destruction. The US will surely destroy the Islamic world, but it will destroy itself in the process. In the end, we'll have a balkanized Middle East and a balkanized North America. "

I hope the people's economist hasn't led you to believe that I expect the outcome to be ultimately profitable. In the Cost of Robbery Theorem, we're only looking at the cost of the heist. There's nothing to keep the robber from being shot escaping from the bank, so to speak. And the theme of disastrous withdrawal/retreat has been frequently inferred in recent bot runs.

There's little doubt in my mind that the ultimate outcome of globalism could be a series of blinding flashes of light over major cities worldwide. Look at how Iran (nuke count = 0 to 4 ) versus Israel (nuke count =245) is shaping up right now.

Thursday

HPH Advisory: Yes, Cliff is aware that www.halfpasthuman.com is up and down (mostly down) due to DNS issues with his isp (Earthlink). He apologizes for any inconvenience. Me? I just wonder why it is that as soon as web bot reports go up Earthlink gets slammed...I keep saying "it's a co-incidence...co-incidence, co-incidence..."

Google: Valuing the New Yellow Pages

We've held for several years - in fact I mentioned it back in 1999 for sure - that over time, the internet would replace the phone book. It's something to think about when you look at the Google IPO details of which you can find at https://www.ipo.google.com/. The reason to look at search engines as the replacement for phone books include:

The (sad) fact that more corporate web sites are little more than a many-pages-long yellow page ad. The number of really useful web sites and those with constantly changing content is pitifully low. I've told more executives than I can to count that the surest way to drive repeat visitors to a web site is to offer constantly updated content that's pertinent to the product. Few listen. Most are little more than phone book ads with Flash content.
VoIP (Voice over internet protocol) phone systems are becoming more commonplace, thus the phone and the directory at some point in the OSI Model are running on the same data railroad tracks.
There's no publishing expense (other than bytes and zillions for web composing software). This will become more important as the world runs out of energy.
Because so many cell phones are now web enabled, it makes sense to have the directory (for everything, everywhere) right in the web-capable cell phone.

Best of all, the web search engines have so far remained free and are likely to remain that way for a while longer, unless of course the web becomes too much of a challenge to the status quo - in which case the government will have no difficulty spotting a "terrorism threat" and use web terror concerns as an excuse to shut down the free expression of ideas and concepts on the web. It's at that point that we'll see loyalty oaths and licensing to use the web. Like the Communications Act of 1933 was a major marker of a Depression, we expect at some point the internet will go the same route (government licensure and control ostensibly in the public interest).

Google meantime has two features you may not have tried. One which we use daily is http://news.google.com that lets us pick a search and zoom in on about 4,500 media outlets. The other is http://froggle.com which we use when looking for deals, such as who's got the best price on polyurethane for the new countertops in the office.

We're looking at http://altavista.com now and then because they seem like they might be more media (image/streaming/mp3) oriented. We may see a battle brewing among search engineers to build the ultimate category-killer. Some things to consider, but it all boils down to "Who has the best vision of the world tomorrow?" when it comes to plopping down a few bucks on a stock.

Why No Coalition in Iraq?

With new fighting in Najaf this morning, I got a letter this morning from a Reader (JS) you might enjoy:

George I follow your columns everyday plus Sunday. but I need an explanation on something. I hope you can do it.

If we are in Iraq just for the oil (due to Peak Oil) as so many web sites say; why didn't France, Germany and Russia join us. This would give them a foot in the door on oil distribution in Iraq. So are we running out of oil, or something not so ominous, or even worse.

Please give an answer if possible oh Guru.

(The people's economist picks up his pointer, points at a blank china board and says...)

"A good question, JS - and one many people don't understand. But as usual, you're not supposed to see the answer. However, if we follow the money, the answer will become clear.

I call this my "Cost of Robbery Theorem." Let's pretend we're robbing a bank to illustrate this theorem. If it costs one robber $250 (billion) in expenses to rob a bank of $500 (billion), the robber goes ahead with the plan because he nets $250 (billion). But if it costs three robbers $250 (billion) each to rob the same bank of $500 (billion), each robber will lose $83 (billion) and change. Thus, as profit are diluted by increasing costs, the number of potential "winners" decreases.

Now, using our "Substitution method of learning™ " approach, we replace the word "bank" with "oilfields". We now see that by the time the U.S. takes its cut of Iraqi oil, there would not be enough oil to insure each additional participant would get a profitable cut.. This is not a war for the Iraq market for cell phone providers - this is a war to empty their bank of oilfields. Not that that's wrong, because my lawn tractor needs gas, too..."

Unemployment Claims Down

But then, we would expect this one to happen just prior to an election, right? http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBBP8TV2YD.html. One reason claims are down is that so many people have already lost their jobs and their benefits have run out. But, hey, don't let that slow the rally. Heck, use that Google news beta I was telling you about and look at the lay off news:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&ie=UTF-8&q=%22lay+off%22+%2Bworkers

Houston Explosion

A explosion at an underground gas storage facility near Houston has caused evacuations this morning: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBH9MCV2YD.html. Residents in a one mile radius have been evacuated - no suspicion of foul play or terror. Yet.

Answers to Reader Questions

Another reader wrote in wondering how in Heaven's name could the market soar 100+ points in the face of $47 oil? Again, the people's economist" speaks to the subject:

"We covered this briefly Tuesday in a multiple choice test. The answer today is the same as Tuesday: It's option week and if you'd like a great shorting opportunity, the market looks about ripe. There's something else to consider. Go look at the Treasury Department Public Debt to the Penny. http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm I believe what you'll find is that a combination of government debt and easy money from the Fed is what makes for these short, sharp rallies in the midst of a bear market decline. Come back next week, when I expect us to be back under 10,000, and if we're not then, almost certainly by the end of September based on Cliff's web bot work. "

Speaking of which, another reader writes:

"I agree with your feelings that the price of oil could be the "big lifestyle changer" as it reaches new heights almost every day. As a Half past human subscriber I'd just like to throw in my two cents.

With August 25th a week from now, it is entirely possible that it will be on that day when we will reach $50 oil. The proverbial "tip of the ice burg."

It's only a matter of time before we see the effects of this at the pump. When that happens the price of oil will be on everyone's mind. Even those individuals who may have never before paid any attention to the price of oil."

Although the market rallied in the face of $47 oil yesterday, but at some point, I expect the market will sober up and get real again. Not only is there oil, but we still have a California earthquake due, an encounter (and we hope near miss only) with Toutatis around the 25th of September. Then there's the Plame grand jury which reportedly has laid two more subpoenas on the NY Times. And oh yes, did I mention that the SEC may sue Freddie Mac over manipulating earnings reports? Link

Then again, another reader writes in about the BIG EVENT:

"Well if you listen to Coast to Coast AM, Richard Hoagland says that in a conference off the coast of Italy early in September, microbe type life on Mars will be announced. This could be a life changing experience in that it would challenge many religious beliefs..."

And as if to set the stage for such an announcement, there's more evidence today that the hills of Mars were once home to flowing water: http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=scienceNews&storyID=6012183

Worse than L.A.

Health authorities in Hong Kong are warning people with heart and breathing problems to stay indoors due to killer smog: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3579144.stm. Always wondered why people in that part of the world bothered smoking...

Water Shortages

...are emerging in parts of India: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/3577502.stm

Canadian Housing Prices

...have gone up so far as to make housing less affordable, says Royal Bank: Link It may be obvious, but it's honest and kind of RBC to put numbers to it.

New Site to Check

I'm pleased to point you at a very interesting site www.umoveout.org. Especially interesting is their mission and objectives page at http://www.umoveout.org/m_and_o.htm. Seems like I'm not the only one worried that our beloved Constitution is in trouble.

The Link Pimp Sez:

"Duh more links tah Urban Survival, the more mah homies will know whatz goin' down...yo" So if your web site has a link to www.urbansurvival.com - let us know and we'll list your site on our references page. Click here to send it.

Wednesday

India: New Top Growth Market

There's a report from the Population Reference Bureau that says India may take over from China as the biggest country in the world by 2050: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/3575994.stm. There are all kinds of ramifications to the report and I trust you can figure some of these out, but the one we're keeping a close eye on is energy demand. These people coming up are going to want U.S.-style media and lifestyles - and there is not enough resource on the planet to make that happen.

Hunt for the BIG Lifestyle Changer

So what would fit with the web bot's predicted huge lifestyle change coming this fall to a world near you? Remember, that whatever it is will start becoming visible around August 25th at the very "tip of the iceberg level" and will percolate into the public awareness by the end of September with pretty much universal recognition by November 1st? Matt Savinar over at www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net spied this interesting report: Cantarell, the second largest oilfield in the world down in Mexico, is reported on it's last legs!

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm We've already aleady alerted you to Chip Haynes New Colonist article "Ghawar is dying" article. http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html and the bumper stickers they're selling: http://www.newcolonist.com/store.html#ghawar_sticker As Savinar notes: "Samsam Bakhtiari - the Iranian oil expert - has said he thinks oil will be $125 [per barrel] within in two years. " Our worry: if not sooner.

Meantime, the Fed's use of the term transitory is looking gumber by the day./

Other Life Changing Candidates

Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com has posted the second installment of data slicing from current web bot runs. Entities emerging from the data:

"Bloody Tears (Economy- global)"

"Populace (Digesting Bad News, Economic Standstill, Crossing Dark Waters)"

"Terra (Storms and Watery Separations)"

More detail is coming:

"As the model develops, we do see that events in September will impact oil/energy both in availability and prices.

Also we note that a 'coup' soon supported by a general popular uprising within the Moslem world (currently interpreted as Iraq) will lead to the 'pushing' of the 'establishment' into the sea after a short, bloody battle costly to both sides.

As more data will arrive for a number of days we will necessarily be dumping and re-processing the model repeatedly. This will lead to augmentations of the discussions of these entities as we continue into parts 3 and 4. We will push on to part 3 as soon as the data run is complete on the 19th."

Sobering stuff, huh?

Israel Ready to Strike Iran?

There's an interesting speculation piece in the Christian Science Monitor this morning on the possibility of an Israeli first-strike against Iran: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0818/p06s01-wome.html. Despite all the rumors that Iraqi WMD's were stashed in Syria, there's much less oil in Syria, so why mess with fighting them?

Bank Layoffs

Bank of America is reportedly planning to lay off 1,500 workers http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040818/ap_on_bi_ge/bofa_job_cuts_3 in the wake of their acquisition of FleetBoston Financial Corp. merger. Sounds like this is just the first batch of layoffs as part of the merger plan.

Dying to Work

There's a report out of Russia today that people who hold jobs - in the once Worker's Paradise" - are dying off must faster than most other groups in the country: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/18/deathrate.shtml The key stat: the death rate among Russian workers is 350% higher than workers in other developed countries. You might think "OK, they need OSHA..." But, you'd be wrong. What's happening is the number of births is Russia is a million a year under the death rate - so Russia is looking at a demographic bomb in slow motion.

Terror Suspects in Court

Those eight men in Britain charged with plotting terror got to court today: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aE_OCCS6i05Y&refer=uk

Suing Rumsfeld

Big headlines in Arab language press today about how SecDef Rumsfeld is being sued over retention policies in the Army: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/38E0DDC4-13BC-4909-AB36-D58D8EE7BE56.htm Constitutional issues plus breach of contract is the basis.

Google Price Drops

What had been speculated as a $135 a share offering by Google this week looks to be more in the mid 80's kind of range: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040818.wgoogle0818/BNStory/Business/

One of our resources - and one you might want to borrow to put up on your own favorites list - is the beta of http://news.google.com. Say you want the latest news on the true death toll from Hurricane Charley - something we think may be understated because of the political ramifications. You put in the search term [+charley +missing] {enter} and up pops the latest denial that "hundreds are still missing" http://www.kwtx.com/home/headlines/933012.html. Clean up the search to include the phrase "still missing" ([+charley +"still missing"] {enter) and you find nothing much new on the question of how many are missing, but book-marking the search for later reference might be worthwhile:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&ie=UTF-8&q=%2Bcharley+%2B%22still+missing%22

New Urban Survival Book:

I'm writing a simple guide to better web searches - it's under 50 pages and will be emailed as an Adobe .PDF file for $10 via PayPal. Available September 15. It's a very much simplified guide to set theory, Boolean search terms and much more. I have had literally dozens of people ask me to explain in simple terms how searches work. The only way to really understand them is to learn something about set theory - but no fancy math! Click here if you're interested. This is geared to adults who either never got the advanced math in school or have forgotten it. But again - very much simplified so as to be extremely useful.

Tell a Friend

...about this web site. Click here and send them the link...

Tuesday

Options Week: Any Reason to Party

I'm may have to change my moniker from "the people's economist" to "George the perpetually amused" given the current behavior of the markets. See if you can spot a reason for the stock market to seriously rally. Run this like a multiple choice test, alright?:

The Consumer Price Index out today showed that deflation is back - with the CIP-U down two-tenths of one percent prior to "adjustments." http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. This is an interesting statistic because it shows that rather than inflation, the bogeyman our "wrong-way" Fed is fighting, they should have kept rates low and thus continued to expand the economy. You read yesterdays article below on how returning soldiers aren't finding work or their old jobs are gone? Doesn't sound like a "stocks friendly" environment to me.
OK, maybe there's some reason for celebration over the reelection of President Chavez in Venezuela? No exactly. Chavez wants to up the charges on foreign oil companies from 15% taxes to 30% to fund his land reformation plans. More interesting, as we noted yesterday is how China (now quoting Iran sources, interestingly) has been touting the pro-Chavez side all along, with the latest example at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-08/17/content_1805407.htm. Again, I'm not sure what's good about this for the US stock market. This doesn't pass the sniff test, either.
Maybe there's some reason to hope that the Yukos fray will help stabilize global oil prices? No chance. Yukos has turned into an international billing party for lawyers: Link Hardly sounds like market driving stability to us.
Maybe some investors are buying the hype about the US returning 60,000 - 70,000 troops from world-wide locations? Germany, for one, is shocked at the idea: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=5995343. Of course what the Germans don't come out and say is that the US bases and all the US soldier spending would put a hell of a dent in their local economies if withdrawn. Not to mention what it would do to German beer sales. So, no, I can't see this as a good thing for U.S. markets. Again, go read the story from yesterday about no jobs for returning soldiers. Rallying on this ness makes no more sense than rallying over GM introducing a new paint color for cars or such. "Gaining strategic advantage" by having the sharp end of the stick away from potential areas of engagement seems like bubble boy's imprecise thought processes have been sold to the Pentagon.
Could Iraq be going well? Maybe that's the reason for the rally? No chance!. The fact is that the Sh'ite militia have figured out a new tactic - torch oil sells. http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20040816_163.html Worse, the talk about peace talks in Najaf is nothing more than a stalling tactic while the Shi'ites re-supply, pass out more ammunition, and catching up on their sleep. Despite talk of a big "peace conference" you can guess what I expect: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/08/17/MNGPB89CQ21.DTL
Maybe there's some other market-driving news? Well, see if any of these grab you as rally points:
1. Canada is going after Nortel in a criminal accounting probe.
2. The Real Estate Bubble although acknowledged is still being denied today.
3. Program trading on the NYSE was just under 55% last week as computer-aided trades are replacing small investors.
4. The $10-billion loss from Hurricane Charley is not as bad as we thought? Well, no. Not only have looters moved in to many areas, but we're hearing consistent reports that the death toll will top 1,000 as hundred and hundreds are still missing and local media in Florida are being leaned on to keep the death toll reports low. The pressure coming from the state capitol. You can get a sense of the big silent treat and media pressure by reading stories like this one: http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/9411262.htm and no, I don't think the true death toll be admitted prior to elections in Florida where the Emperor's brother runs things. It's slipping out though: http://www.rense.com/general56/eekk.htm
None of the above.

I think the right answer is G, none of the above. This is rally expiration week and the specialists drive the prices up. Not that they will hold this level, but another bounce off the 10,000 before resuming the downward spiral in the markets later this month would give the specialists a chance to short from higher prices. Technically, this running of the clock will alleviate some of the over-sold conditions from the last few weeks of downward action.

Israel's Oil Agenda

There's an interesting article about how Israel might be eyeing a pipeline for Iraqi oil at http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/printer_10989.shtml. Wouldn't surprise us.

Foot & Mouth

We're still chuckling about how the truth sometimes slips out of the mouths of leaders. Take George Bush's recent "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we..." Uh huh... http://www.rense.com/1.imagesG/soul.jpg

How Stupid Do They Think We Are?

There was an article yesterday about how the Food and Drug Administration "fears imported drugs might be a terrorist target." CNN's version at link Here's what I think the deal is - in case you haven't figured this one out for yourself.

When US citizens buy fairly priced drugs overseas, we save a lot of money. I buy my eczema medication in Mexico periodically because is $8 a tube versus $35 in the U.S. so I understand the racket.. To me, this is clearly a case of the corporate agenda is being twisted into a perverted War Terror mantra in order to line the pockets of drug price-gougers with big influence on Capitol Hill.

We're stocking up on vitamins for the day when nutrition supplements, too, will be prescribed..

Monday

$50 Oil Week? Chavez Retained

That's the latest coming out of Venezuela as we put bytes to web this morning: http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040816-063521-6310r.htm The reports in the most media indicate that the Chavez win is a good thing for oil http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=89360&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=27149 However, the easing today is little more than short-term market "relief".

One of the most interesting things to watch on Sunday, between bouts of wallboard taping and wiring in my office remodel project, was to see how Chinese coverage was definitely more pro-Chavez than most Western media.

With oil climbing to just under $47 in overnight trading in Asia , http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/101181/1/.html, we would not be surprised to see oil hit $50 next week. More important, by U.S. election time, we fully expect oil to hit $60 or higher. I know that's a wild prediction, but make note of it because if cards fall as we think they may, gas prices in 2005 will be $3.00 and higher. I'm not the only one looking at $50 oil as a near term target: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C584B577-1B73-46FA-BBA5-EC28CE19D446.htm

Once again this week, we expect Yukos to skate up to the edge of bankruptcy - and maybe beyond -which will again push oil higher: http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/08/16/misamore.shtml and it's made all the more serious by shippers saying "No Credit!" http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/08/16/volgotanker.shtml

Linked Resources

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html spied this interesting story about the relationship between oil at water http://www.iags.org/n0813043.htm which we think you'll want to read before, say, mid September.

Down the street from us, here in East Texas, there's a slant-drilling rig next to the natural gas well - drilling 24-7 now. It's about a half mile from the house and we can hear it when the wind's right. Just started up last week.

Some Bank Rates Decline

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve failed to pay attention to my common-sense call for a pass on rates last week, we note with interest that the Bank of Namibia and the South African Reserve Bank are both lowering rates - not raising them: http://www.namibian.com.na/2004/august/marketplace/045D360B96.html The two banks seem to be eyeing the soaring oil prices with suspicions that it may chill global economic activity - a view very much in line with mine.

World Bank: Advice Ignored

There's a good article in the Christian Science Monitor today about how the World Bank is ignoring consulting advice to back interest of oil companies: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0816/p09s01-coop.html Gee, who would have thought bankers would ignore advice to pull out of backing oil and gas projects? Yeah, right...

Fed Web Worries

The Fed is moving wired money around on the Internet? http://www.nypost.com/business/18671.htm Homeland Security is a little worried about potential exposure..

Welcome Home - to No Jobs

With Elaine's injured son now in recovery at Walter Reed from his personal brush with Iraq, we note with some interest that a lot of the troops who have returned home are finding there are no jobs to be had: Military.com coverage of this important story at LINK1. OK, I admit its hard not to say "I told you so..."

Troop Shifts

Also of note on the military side: Looks like 70,000 US troops will be withdrawn from Europe and Asia shortly: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3568548.stm Donald Rummy is in Russia telling them, in effect "Here's what we're doing..." http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/08/16/rumsfeld.shtml

The planned reallocation of forces won't reduce soldier counts in Iraq or Afghanistan. In Iraq three more American soldiers are dead as fighting rages around Najaf http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/45E051A4-A71A-4649-ADBF-F36262A10FFA.htm

After Charley..

In the aftermath of hurricane Charley, while the US politicos scramble to get aid out to folks who need it, we note that European reinsurance companies are taking a drubbing today: Link One German group thinks claims will exceed $100-million euros.

Land of the Free...

...home of the watched: The FBI is stepping up investigations into folks who might cause a disruption to the Emperor's Convention early next month: link Key quote:

"But some people contacted by the F.B.I. say they are mystified by the bureau's interest and felt harassed by questions about their political plans.

"The message I took from it," said Sarah Bardwell, 21, an intern at a Denver antiwar group who was visited by six investigators a few weeks ago, "was that they were trying to intimidate us into not going to any protests and to let us know that, 'hey, we're watching you.''

Deer Herd Growing

I'll see if I can snap a picture or two of our growing deer herd here at the ranch. Five deer this morning -We've got two "Bambi's" and three does that come through the yard every morning like clockwork between 7:15 and 7:45 - then back in the evening. Besides the young ones cavorting, they've browsed off all the leaves from Elaine's gourds planted around one of the light poles. Earlier, they munched through Panama's fence line corn.

We've got our "Posted: No Hunting" signs, although we fear many hunters can't read any better than the deer.. As I've said before, until Kroger, Wal-Mart, and Brookshire's all run out of meat, sitting in a deer blind, surrounded by electronic sounds, and putting out bait like corn and molasses just seems to lack honest sportsmanship. Sort of like dollar carry trades don't seem sporting either...

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