Updated: Saturday
September 18, 2004
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Political
Draft in the Wings: Kerry on Bush's Call Up Plan
OK, so the war in Iraq is not going well - all George Bush needs to do is get himself re-elected and BINGO - the House and Senate are sitting on a DRAFT BILL that can be pulled out within weeks - ostensibly on an "emergency basis". The bill would send every male and female into some kind of mandatory two-year national service and would cover everyone 18-26. That's not news - that's been the plan all along,
House Resolution 163 and Senate Bill 89 have both been "parked" so the corporatists can put enough of their bought and paid for candidates back in office so the bills can be sprung on the American people. What you're expected to forget is that these things were introduced in January of 2003 before we went marching into Iraq. Now, the minute Bush is re-elected, he will pull the trigger on the draft.
OK, so what's going to cause that to happen? Go read the story about the FBI planning a huge counter-offensive to prevent a major terrorist attack in October. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/17/eveningnews/main644096.shtml Now you get the picture. It goes something like this: There's a big attack. The American public rallies around Bush. Bush gets re-elected. Right after the election, Congress goes back to work. A week later, we have a draft again - and the corporatists of the petrodollar faction who are in charge in the U.S. right now have all the manpower they need to take on the narco-faction.
Of course, what's critical is that Americans like you don't figure it all out. That's why so many of our patriotic men and women in uniform are so disappointed. The military is being used overseas for mostly political purposes.
The headline today is that Kerry is saying Bush has a Secret Troop Call-Up Plan. The fact of the matter is it has been there all along, it's just that most people have not given it more than a few minutes of thought months ago. Out of sight (parked in committee, ready to spring), out of mind. About the most encouraging part of Kerry's attack is that someone besides me knows how to read.
ROTC Call Up Rumored
We've received several yet-to-be-confirmed reports that the Bush administration has asked regional ROTC commands for lists of participants who are in community colleges, and universities. Apparently the plan is to issue the activation just as soon as the U.S. election if over. One of the major concerns is that Iran has another set of war games underway which you can find referenced under "Ashoura 5" in various places: http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=9/14/2004&Cat=2&Num=4 The "games" near the Iraqi border will be going on until September 20th.
Putin Assassination Attempt Foiled?
Two mined cars have been located in Moscow - apparently part of a plan to park them on the side of a road and remotely detonate them as Vlad Putin was driving by. Part of the story is at the Pravda Engoish language site, with other sources in Russian: http://english.pravda.ru/accidents/21/96/382/14254_cars.html
We find the story incredibly interesting because the web bots made reference to assassination attempt(s) in the last run.
Way to Give
If you have a few bucks to spare, click over to www.redcross.org and drop a few bucks in the kitty. The south is a mess from the hurriacanes.
2:10 PM CDT Friday
More O&G Damage Reported from Ivan
This afternoon's report from the government's Minerals Management Service:
*** This survey is reflective of 36 companies’ reports as of 11:30 a.m. Central Time.
| Districts | Lake Jackson | Lake Charles | Lafayette | Houma | New Orleans | Total |
| Platforms Evacuated |
3 |
36 |
26 |
40 |
112 |
217 |
| Rigs Evacuated |
1 |
3 |
0 |
6 |
9 |
19 |
|
|
||||||
| Oil, BOPD Shut-in |
7,611 |
17,395 |
146,044 |
281,959 |
708,082 |
1,233,091 |
| Gas, MMCF/D Shut-In |
98.20 |
176.33 |
755.81 |
1,034.99 |
3,051.56 |
5,116.88 |
These evacuations are equivalent to 28.40% of 764 manned platforms and 16.24% of 117 rigs currently operating in the GOM.
This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 72.53% of daily production of oil in GOM which is approximately 1.7 million BOPD.
This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 41.60% of the daily production of gas in the GOM which is approximately 12.3 BCFPD
The cumulative (9/13/04-9/17/04) shut-in oil production is 5,149,438 bbls which equivalent to .8511% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM which is approximately 605 million barrels.
The cumulative (9/13/04-9/17/04) shut-in gas production is 22.847 BCF which is equivalent to .5134% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM which is approximately 4.45 TCF.
These cumulative numbers reflect updated production numbers from all previous reports.
Meantime, our Texas Bureau is checking unconfirmed reports that an El Paso gas pipeline that was reported damaged, but no fire yesterday has now been ignited. Apparently gas is percolating out around a rupture, but no further details at this time.
Ivan Energy Impact Update
More from our Houston Bureau on the Ivan energy impacts:
The floating rigs owned by Transocean and Diamond, reported yesterday, have been found.
Horizon Offshore was crewed up to do a compressor lift tomorrow for one of its clients, however the jack-up rig where the lift was to occur has vanished.
The MMS has ordered that all structures 25 miles west and 50 miles east of the storm track must be inspected before they can be crewed up again.
More as it comes.
And from from Noble Energy word of three missing platforms and one damaged:
Press Release Source: Noble Energy, Inc.
Noble Energy Announces Preliminary Impact Of Hurricane Ivan
Thursday September 16, 9:19 pm ET
HOUSTON, Sept. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NBL - News) announced today that it has completed a partial aerial survey of the company's operated Gulf of Mexico production platforms that were affected by Hurricane Ivan. Based on the aerial survey, three production platforms are missing and one has been damaged in the Main Pass area. The missing platforms are Main Pass 293A, Main Pass 305C and Main Pass 306E. The damaged platform is Main Pass 305B. Prior to shut-in for Hurricane Ivan, net production at the Main Pass field was approximately 3,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Noble Energy has assembled a team to assess the damage, identify any environmental impacts and develop a repair plan. The company has not yet determined the financial impact of Hurricane Ivan, or its impact on production volumes. The entire Main Pass field was shut in prior to the arrival of Hurricane Ivan and all personnel were evacuated.
Noble Energy is one of the nation's leading independent energy companies and operates throughout major basins in the United States including the Gulf of Mexico, as well as internationally, in Argentina, China, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Sea. Noble Energy markets natural gas and crude oil through its subsidiary, Noble Energy Marketing, Inc.
Ivan's Energy Toll
The federal Mineral Management Service has issued its first report on damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Ivan:
*** This survey is reflective of 53 companies’ reports as of 11:30 a.m. Central Time Thursday
|
Districts |
Lake Jackson |
Lake Charles |
Lafayette |
Houma |
New Orleans |
Total |
|
Platforms Evacuated |
20 |
105 |
127 |
125 |
168 |
545 |
|
Rigs Evacuated |
2 |
15 |
10 |
21 |
21 |
69 |
|
|
||||||
|
Oil, BOPD Shut-in |
12,164 |
30,678 |
173,268 |
349,214 |
844,228 |
1,410,002 |
|
Gas, MMCF/D Shut-In |
173.56 |
428.26 |
1,092.02 |
1,306.11 |
3,515.26 |
6,515.20 |
These evacuations are equivalent to 71.33% of 764 manned platforms and 58.97% of 117 rigs currently operating in the GOM.
This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 82.94% of daily production of oil in GOM which is approximately 1.7 million BOPD.
This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 52.97% of the daily production of gas in the GOM which is approximately 12.3 BCFPD.
The cumulative (9/13/04-9/16/04) shut-in oil production is 3,916,347 bbls which equivalent to .6473% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM which is approximately 605 million barrels.
The cumulative (9/13/04-9/16/04) shut-in gas production is 17.731 BCF which is equivalent to .3985% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM which is approximately 4.45 TCF.
These cumulative numbers reflect updated production numbers from all previous reports.
The Minerals Management Service is the federal agency in the U.S. Department of the Interior that manages the nation’s oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources on the Outer Continental Shelf in Federal offshore waters. The agency also collects, accounts for, and disburses mineral revenues from Federal and American Indian lands. MMS disbursed more than $8 billion in FY 2003 and more than $135 billion since the agency was created in 1982. Nearly $1 billion from those revenues go into the Land and Water Conservation Fund annually for the acquisition and development of state and Federal park and recreation lands.
They promise an update at 1 PM CDT today.
You can find a BBC report summarizing land side damage at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3664436.stm plus the latest track on Hurricane Jeanee and upcoming Tropical Storm Karl at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
Interpretation of Economic Reports
Just a glance at www.drudgereport.com last night got us to wondering about our news aggregating colleague. The story Drudge linked about US household wealth "swelling" may have come from the same Fed stats I read and reported on (story below) but the folks who wrote the story are certainly not "liberal press" biased. The story at LINK pimps household "wealth" growing, a function of inflation as we all know around here. I somehow managed to point out that it's coming from debt creation which is a phony a measure of "wealth". You following this?
Iraq in Trouble
You won't see it in the US press so much, because it would be construed as anti-Bush - and US media have a way of totally over-compensating, but the more even-keeled British press doesn't have a problem outlining a secret report that says the US is in a heap-of-trouble in Iraq: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3664136.stm And, as if the make the point, there have been a couple of more big car bombs go off in Baghdad today: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3665390.stm
Not to media bash, but if I read one more story about George and John's war records, I'm going puke. Isn't anyone besides me reading "The Family" by Kitty Kelly? Worse: The story that the outcome of Iraq is looking grim (not to mention the defeat yet to come predicted back in May in our web bot project) in today's International Herald Tribune is getting next to no play: http://www.iht.com/articles/539322.htm
Is the whole American voting public on drugs? We have a world torn between the petrodollars and the narcodollars, fighting a phony WOT based on what could be MIHOP or LIHOP [made it happen on purpose or let it happen on purpose] events of 9/11 plus huge twists of facts, we're running out of food & oil while facing potentially dramatic climate change and the best we can do is warmed over testosterone stories about my wank is bigger than yours kind of crap?. GMAFB* (* Give me a * break).
I must be deluded to think the campaign issues are:
-
It's the economy, stupids.
-
It's jobjacking, stupids.
-
It's affordable and universal health care, stupids.
-
It's are you going to let the government welch on their contract with us on Social Securityu payments which chief weasel-banker Greenspan is mealy-mouthing about not being able to afford?
Freedom Cherished in Russia
Here's a story that I never thought I would live to write. In the wake of their version of 9/11 - the Belsan school disaster - Vladimir Putin has been trying to steal way rights of Russian citizens on the same pretext as the Patriot Act stole many of our Constitutional rights. What's interesting as heck is that the Russians are not taking the theft of rights as quietly as we have: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/17/liberals.shtml While the protest builds, Putin's recent attempts to seize power from regional governors of the country are also under attack: http://www.mosnews.com/interview/2004/09/14/ryzhkov.shtml
Columbine Grand Jury
Oh oh. A grand jury in Colorado says authorities withheld a document showing deputies knew in advance about aspects of the case: specifically about threats and didn't do anything about it: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBNO2K48ZD.html Even worse: There are still missing documents.
Here's something for the conspiratorially minded to think about: If you were trying to enslave a country over time, wouldn't it make sense to begin with kids in high school - by getting them used to having fewer and fewer rights - and more warrantless searches, a fallout from the Columbine disaster - so that young people would be less inclined to fight for their freedoms as matured into adulthood? That's why the missing documents in the Columbine case are so troubling.
We hope Attorney General Ken Salazar takes the grand jury that one last painful step - to see if there was any outside influence behind the scenes that lead to the killing of 13 people. We don't think kids go bad without help.
Great Freebie
I don't normally bother you with ads in the middle of content, but the folks at Elliottwave.com have a great freebie coming up Monday. If you want to learn a lot about Elliott Wave, click over to find out more about:
Also -be sure and follow the link on the left side of this page to get over to The Daily Reckoning - Bill Bonner's excellent market comments.
Friday Fun: Music for Triple Witching Day
MotM Day! It's on days like this - triple witching day - that I haul out my music analytics program which we simply call "Music of the Market". Taking the Dow 30, the relative volume of the Dow, the NASDAQ 100, and the S&P 500, I constructed an audio analog of the stock market for the year-to-date. I assigned grand piano to the Dow 30, the oboe, which leads is the declining volume of the Dow YTD, while English horns represent the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 is played by a tuba. There are 177 notes YTD (This is current through Wednesday) and I used the NASDAQ to trigger soft steel drums.
To hear the music the market is making, point a recent copy of Windows Media Player, or something that will play back MIDI files and click over to http://urbansurvival.com/songofdeclingingvolume.mid and hear it yourself. Look at this chart while you are listening - different chart, but it'll give your brain something to chew on.:
Technically, this is child's play compared to Cliff's web bot project but the process is interesting. You begin by collecting the daily stock numbers you want to "musify" from someplace like Yahoo. Then you put them into Excel where you sort by date (Yahoo data plays backwards if you don't) and come up with normalizing multipliers. I chose to normalize to middle C on January 1st. From there, you copy and "past special as unformatted text into Word. In Word, you strip out the CR/LF (^p) character and replace it with a regular space character (^s). Now with a large paragraph of numbers separated only by spaces, you paste the results into MuSoft Builders "a Musical Generator" program using the data>numbers function. You save the result as a .MIDI file. To set the relative levels, I touch up the volume and musical assignments using MAGIX Midi Studio Generation 5 and then upload to the site.
9:00 AM CDT Update: A few people have asked so - more details: Acoustic Grand Piano (Dow) is panned left, OBOE (Dow vol.) is centered) English horn (SPC) panned left, NASDAQ 100 (steel drum and tuba) are panned right.
Recent Interviews
If you have RealPlayer fired up, you can listen to the interview I did recently on Feet-to-the-fire by clicking over to http://www.innersites.com/feet2fire/past-shows.htm and scoring down till you find it. Cliff was on Mysteries of the Mind a half hour later than scheduled last night - at least I think he was. I tried to listen but their servers were completely overwhelmed.
Thursday
Special 11:30 PM CDT Update
Super Inflation of Debt in Latest Fed Report
No need to do anything but quote the eye-popping numbers in the Fed's new Flow of Funds of the United States report out within the hour:
Domestic nonfinancial debt rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7-3/4 percent in the second quarter of 2004, somewhat slower than the 9 percent pace in the first quarter. The slowdown in debt growth last quarter was distributed broadly across all of the major nonfinancial sectors in the United States.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, growth of federal government debt slowed to 10-3/4 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter from a 12 percent rate in the previous quarter. In the state and local government sector, debt expanded 4-1/2 percent at an annual rate last quarter, about half the first-quarter pace. Although growth of household debt slowed from the rapid pace of the previous quarter, it remained strong at an annual rate of 9-1/2 percent in the second quarter.
Mortgage debt expanded at a double-digit annual rate last quarter and consumer credit rose moderately. Debt of nonfinancial businesses grew at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent in the second quarter, a bit slower than in the first quarter. Among the components of nonfinancial business borrowing, net issuance of corporate bonds was negligible in the second quarter, but commercial mortgage borrowing was sizable and on a seasonally adjusted basis, bank loans posted the first quarterly net increase since late-2000.
The seasonally adjusted level of domestic nonfinancial debt outstanding was just under $23.3 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2004. Debt of nonfederal sectors was $19 trillion and federal debt held by the public was about $4.3 trillion.
Do you really believe that refinancings in the housing sector have paid down consumer debt? Guess again:
Bush Crew Eyes Iran Nuclear "Problem"
Good coverage in the British Financial Times of a story that really overshadows even the damage of Hurricane Ivan. It's about how the Bush administration is trying to come to terms with Iran and that involves hatching contingency plans for their next war. Saying they won't tolerate a nuclear Iran, the administration is reviewing military options, including presumably the one we've been watching most closely - having Israel carry out a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities as soon as the election is in the bag: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/eed88be8-0741-11d9-9672-00000e2511c8.html If you're an armchair warrior, you can pick up some targeting information at http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/parchin-2.htm and related links off that page.
While nuclear proliferation is a problem, we're concerned that the Bush administration seems to be setting us up for another war. I understand why we allowed Israel and Pakistan to go nuclear. Israel made huge campaign contributions to US politicos and Pakistan has no oil, so they got a pass.
With Iran producing 4-million barrels per day of crude, and a US economy that we're not able to wean from the nipple of cheap oil due in part to a lack of political leadership, the Bush crew of energy highwaymen keep resorting to military options instead of engineering genuine solutions. Put more directly, thuggery is more their style than genius. And that's OK, but could we please de-spin things?
To learn more about underlying motives, let me recommend some reading. Catherine Austin Fitts, a once deeply involved in politics as assistant secretary of housing in the first Bush administration, has a wonderful series called "Narcodollars for Beginners" that is worth your time to read at http://www.drugwar.com/fittsnarco1.shtm. Once you take the time to read through that, you'll have a much clearer vision of why the Mexican border leaks (hint: drugs), why the U.S. is in Afghanistan (hint: drugs and energy pipelines) and how what's passed off to you as "terrorism" is more likely violent messaging from the petrodollar clan to the narcodollar clan and visa versa. Here's a stat for you from the article:
"I don't know what the Narco National Product (Solari's term for that portion of the GNP coming from narco dollars) was in 1947, but lets say it was a billion dollars or less. Today, the Narco National Product that number is estimated to be about $400 billion globally and about $150 billion plus in the United States." [These are 2001 figures, BTW -G]
Fitts believes that the innocent bystanders (that'd be us) still have a chance to survive the petrodollar/narcodollar battle, which is what www.solari.com and the link "Solari" on the left menu is about. That said, your appreciation of global politics is enhanced, and the agendas crystallize, when you see some of the missing motivators.
Today's Narco-Petro Messaging
Suspected saboteur killed in central Russia gas pipeline blast: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/09/16/pipeline.shtml
OPEC raises production quotas: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-09/16/content_1990879.htm
Oil higher as Ivan hits US: http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6253324
Cayman Island banks back in business after Ivan: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3659020.stm
Museum Links Drugs, Terrorism and Drug Users: LINK
Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists offering certifications in United Arab Emirates: http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=63251
Anthrax scare in South Africa: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?sf=2813&click_id=13&art_id=qw1095241502205B262&set_id=
Kofi Annan: Iraq War Illegal
We're putting this up as our "Duh!" of the Day. (DotD) The UN Secretary General says the war against Iraq, foisted on the American people by a pack of lies that just don't seem to end, was illegal. And our runner up for DotD is the response of the American allied countries who claim it was entirely valid. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3661736.stm. No, the Arab world is not surprised by Annan's conclusion: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2AA1310F-798C-4666-AE76-DCB6370C75CC.htm
Will Bush Debate?
There's an interesting offered by the Drudge Report today at http://www.drudgereport.com/debate.pdf citing a letter from the Commission on Presidential Debates:
"The CPD’s coordination with federal law enforcement for the 2004 debates – the first since September 11, 2001 – has been underway since December, 2002. The Gallup Organization is ready to recruit undecided voters in the St. Louis, MO metropolitan area for the town meeting debate, a format that has proved most popular with the American public. The four universities, their surrounding communities, and their state governments have incurred significant costs in preparing for the four debates. They cannot wait any longer for confirmation that these historic events will go forward as planned. Please contact us upon your receipt of this letter to schedule a planning meeting."
So will Bush simply run out the clock and hide from public debate of issues like the one above? We thoroughly expect some "emergency" to come up which will be used as an excuse not to debate John Kerry. But the real event not to be missed will be Dick "eff-you" Cheney versus John the trial lawyer Edwards. That'd be a shame to cancel.
Ivan's Aftermath
53 foot waves continue hatching fears about what crews will find when they return to energy production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. NYT Coverage.
My daughter never did make it to the ranch. She and her friend Lisa (plus two cats) ended up in a motel north of Lafayette. They're both worried about being back at work on Friday. More coverage: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3661040.stm
Next up is Hurricane Jeanne, which will make an approach up the east coast of Florida with landfall expected next Wednesday, somewhere from Florida up to North Carolina. Meantime, we continue hearing reports that Florida is having spotty gasoline shortages due to the previous two 'canes: http://www.local6.com/news/3731420/detail.html
Storm Follow-up
I received an excellent letter from a reader this morning:
George,
Thanks for the storm news, and for your willingness to share your family
news.
I guess this emphasizes the need for a bug-out-bag and a bug-out-plan. A
roomy SUV or AWD van has its advantages, too.
Before this hurricane season is out, a lot of people will reflect on
government's inability to provide emergency services. We all have been
living on the ragged edge with no backup and no reserves. All this
"just-in-time" and "lean-and-mean" is utter folly when taken to
extremes. When 99% of the populace is dependent on near-perfection of
infrastructure in delivery of food, water, sewage removal, heat,
air-conditioning, lighting, medical care, and police protection, we are not
just askign for trouble, we are begging for it.
A real-world example that I have first hand knowledge of:
A computer ordering system for independent drug-stores to replenish
inventory. They have thousands of items on the shelf. Manager uses a
hand-held barcode reader at the shelf, types the quantity he wants. Calls
in the order and gets the products in a day or two from a central
warehouse. Overall a great scheme with many economies of scale, etc.
Problem 1 - hardware is archaic, cheap, and error-prone.
Problem 2 - user interface is poorly designed. Customer can be easily
confused regarding acceptance of his order. Customer can't check an order
status screen, doesn't get a hard-copy receipt, etc.
Problem 3 - entire software at central site mainframe is shakey - poorly
designed, poorly maintained, poorly managed (think cheap). Transactions
can invisibly detour into limbo for a long time.
Problem 4 - Aggressive marketing expands custoemr base beyond drugstores to
supplies used in hospital operating rooms. Patchy delivery may be
tolerable (if it's cheap) for refilling candy bars, shampoo, etc. Not as
cool when we are talking prescription drugs. Definitely a problem when
surgery depends on just-in-time delivery.
Put this all together: A lazy user hangs up before getting
confirmation. Poor central-site software doesn't generate an alert about a
suspicious transaction until the next morning. Cheapo hospital
intentionally waits until the very last minute to order the
supplies. Hospital brings the patient in and preps for surgery before
checking that the supplies are available. So we waste the patient's day,
hospital staff, operating rooms, etc. All this to save WHAT?
And all of this assumes that overnight air couriers will make their
delivery guarantees. What about weather? What about FAA grounding of all
flights? What about frivolous airport closures because of a paperclip in a
passenger's pocket at a checkpoint?
What we have here is two streams of problems: First we have a poorly
designed and poorly operated delivery system which is
over-marketed. Second we have pharmacies and hospitals trying to shave
pennies by keeping ZERO inventory instead of focusing on their mission
which is providing a balance between quality of care (including reliability
and dependability) and economy.
Doesn't help when we have idiots throughout the system.
As a systems analyst, if I were to review a system like this, I would pull
the fire alarm. I would proclaim it unreliable and unable to meet minimal
mission requirements. Too many single points of failure that have serious
effects. More importantly, there are no backups. Back in the bad old
days, we had retailers, wholesalers, distributors, jobbers, and multiple
manufacturing plants around the country. If push came to shove, you could
drive to a place to pick up an emergency part.
In short, we are all in for a regular stream of very bad news from here on
out.
And it's why - if we were running an advertising campaign for personal preparedness - we'd propose some slogans like: "Food Storage - It's not just for Mormons anymore." or "Drink Canada Dry - and keep some bottled water". "Survival is Job One." "Generators - they bring good things to life"
Bots Running
www.halfpasthuman.com has launched a new round of web bots out collecting data for more analysis later this month... (OK, spiders, agents, and wanderers are just the front end data collection tools. But put on your calendar Cliff will be on Alex Merklinger's Mysteries of the Mind tonight. 8:15 or so CDT http://www.mysteriesofthemind.com/
Latest "Nigeria" Letter
It's always refreshing to see how the criminal mind adapts to the changing geopolitical situation. Take the famous "Nigeria Letter" scam. Used to be that I'd get an email or two a day from someone claiming to be the son or daughter of the late so-and-so in Nigeria who left $50-millon and if they could just use my bank account, they would give me $18 million for my trouble. So OK, that's the background. Now here is today's latest version - which is kind of clever and marginally more believable:
FROM: Mohammed Said.
AMMAN JORDAN
Email:mohasaid@o2.pl
DEAR:Ramadan,
My Name is Mohammed Siad, an Iraqis National from the Kurds an Accountant in Oil refinery in Durra. I am presently in Amman, Jordan Capital since U.S.strike Iraqi, few days to the expiration of the 48 hours Ultimatum before the strike.
I moved $45.5M dollars call-deposit to Security Company in Iran for safe-keeping.In my capacity as the accountant to the oil refinery in durra, I was the only person aware of this financial transaction call-deposit with the security company in Iran to be released to whom I will introduce to the security company as the beneficiary of the call- deposit of $45.5M, whom the oil installation company is been owed since I can not be able to go to Iran because of the war.
Now that the situation is not condusive for me to go to Iran, I am appealing to you if i can present you as the beneficiary of the call- deposit to the security company for the release of the deposit to your Account or any of your destination as part of the money being owed to you by Durra oil Refinery Company Iraq.
As soon as this deposit is released to your Account by the security company in Iran or any of your destination,I will come over to meet you for disbursement 30%-70%. On your acceptance on this transaction I will send to you the deposit slip Certificate for the call deposit to you as the beneficiary to be release to you as part of the refunds owed to you by Durra Oil Refinery company Iraq.Or contact me through my alternative E-mailaddress: mohasaid@o2.pl
Awaiting your quick response,
Best Regards,
Mohammed Siad.
Forgive me if this sounds like Bat Man laying one of his preachy moments on Robin here, but "It's a shame to see such a good mind being wasted on criminal endeavors." Now if Mohamed could just spell conducive and spell his own name the same way consistently through the letter...but at least he's been watching the news and that's a start.
Wednesday
1:30 PM CDT Live Storm Data
As the Hurricane comes ashore, around midnight tonight, we've been watching the NOAA Ocean Data Buoy system. As of 1:30 P CDT the buoy to watch is Number 42040 with periodic data updated (several times hourly) at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040
Additional data buoys on the NOAA page at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml. The 36.1 ft wave height over a 17 second period (Down to the trough and back up to a peak in 17 seconds) and gusts over 60 knots are a taste of what's coming.
Special 10:20 AM CDT Update
Jamaica Digs Out - Ivan Heads In
I talked to my daughter again - she and her friend are still only 75-80 miles from New Orleans and stuck in 5-6 mile an hour traffic on I-10 - they plan on heading north and west to get to high elevation before the storm comes ashore tonight or tomorrow.
I received a letter from a subscriber who lives in Jamaica - it puts the danger of the storm into perspective:
"Just a quick update from here in the island of Jamaica. The wind and rain bands from Hurricane Ivan the Terrible passed over Jamaica between Thursday night (Sept 9) and Saturday evening Sept. 11, 2004. Even though the eye of the monster storm did not come ashore, the eye wall came pretty close to our southern and western shores which had a ridiculous level of devastation. In many cases entire houses were flattened. In some coastal fishing villages and towns the sea came inland almost half mile as a result of 20 ft. storm surges. Several shelters including some school and church buildings lost their roofs. Over 19,000 people are in the shelters. At least 33 are reported missing and over 20 confirmed dead. Many villages are still cut off. The distribution system is now under pressure as delivery trucks are not able to get to the Mom and Pop shops in the hilly areas. We are praying that severe hunger does not rear its head in this country.
The government has declared a state of public emergency and suspended some civil liberties such as the right of assembly plus established curfews in some areas. The police shoot on sight approach put a quick stop to attempts at looting. The country is grateful.
We've lost a lot of our fruit trees - citrus, breadfruit, ackee, apples etc...gone. The electrical grid was shut down islandwide midday Friday to prevent severe damage.
The main undersea fibre optic cables running into the island through Cayman was severed by the hurricane on Sunday. it came back up this morning so internet is restored plus our call center industry is back up to speed. Of course there is now an opportunity for companies providing satellite backup communications.
Personally speaking, I live in the capital city of Kingston. My house fared well as it is a bungalow with fully concrete and steel construction including the roof and with wooden louvre windows. The howling 120mph+ winds Friday afternoon into Saturday sounded like half a dozen high speed trains and jet planes around you in Dolby Stereo. I kid you not. Many expensive homes totally lost their roofs. The countryside on a whole fared much worse with land slides and floods.
We have no running water. I hadn't installed a tank at my home as yet. I'd filled the bath tub and several buckets on Thursday afternoon. But supplies are running low. Food is OK - lots of bread in the freezer, which is quickly losing its frost, and canned foods in the cupboard. We're using candles and kerosene lamps at night as power is out in most of the country. Here at work we've got a big standby generator. I was able to get gas for my car this morning though.
Well that's it for now. The country is dazed but getting back to its feet. Economic growth may take a hit for awhile. Hopefully there are no oil price shocks in the next few months.
Based on our experience the Gulf Coast of the USA had really better watch out. Ivan the Terrible is a killer.
The latest from the National Hurricane Center shows the track holding, but any westing will increase the damage expected in the New Orleans area. For a summary of energy resources at risk, click here.
Escaping Big Easy: 10-Hours to go 65 Miles
I just got off the phone this morning talking to my eldest daughter Denise, who with her friend Lisa and two cats, are heading for the ranch. However as of 7 AM CDT, their 10-hours of driving had gotten them only from New Orleans to Baton Rouge - a trip that usually takes an hour.
I-10 is a parking lot from Baton Rouge west this morning where the cell phone report is that it's still 5-10 MPH and no sign of things getting faster. The girls are now taking shifts driving so they can keep up the pace and when I talked to them, they were at a rest stop watering the cats and dewatering themselves and looking for coffee.
If there's something to really learn about from all this it's probably the fact that what civil defense planners have often suggested: When a major disaster strikes a big U.S. city, many have highway choke points that would make escape for masses of people virtually impossible.
Make a note to yourself - although I will remind you of it many times in the future - if a real disaster scenario required evacuation from a major city, the effort might take many times longer than you expect.
We also noticed that when something really big is going on, the FEMA National Situation Reports fall waaayyyy behind: http://www.fema.com/emanagers/natsitup.shtm Wonder if this is some new way of lobbying for a bigger budget?
Bots on Radio Tomorrow Night
I was on Alex Merklinger's Mysteries of the Mind radio show last night http://www.mysteriesofthemind.com/ We spent about 3-hours going over the economic future of the country in general - and touching a bit on this week's Inside Report that suggests no matter who wins the White House, the economy may be in recession again or worse by early 2005. I'm out on the limb saying Dow under 6,000 by June 1 of next year, if not by Christmas.
Alex has Congressman Ron Paul on tonight - a true American Patriot who's willing to stand up to big pharmaceutical companies and actually knows what the Constitution & Bill of Rights is about. Then tomorrow night, my colleague Cliff will be on. Check the Mysteries of the Mind web site for info on how to listen live.
Look, Up in the Sky
That's about all air traffic controllers could do in the Southern California region yesterday as radio communications problems turned off air traffic control for 800 or so flights. http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=6237469 Some flights were were getting out of LAX after midnight, but the source of the problem is not yet reported.
Alternative to Hockey?
There's a new film - The Art of Killing a Cat - showing in Canada at the Toronto Film Festival about three artists who take it upon themselves to kill a cat. Animal rights activists are appalled, disgusted and fill in your own descriptors. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/film/3657582.stm This is for sure not a movie that could display the "no animals were hurt making this movie" disclaimer. Ever since reading the story, we've been scratching our heads wondering if this is what comes after watching too much hockey.
Conflict of Interests
We have pointed out many times the difference in agendas bet6ween the U.S. and European countries in the Middle East, but now that the UN is debating what atomic energy future Iran will be allowed to have, it has come up again: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/74FF2AC4-8771-4C98-9687-A25375598305.htm Although it's a vast simplification, it always feels like the U.S. wants oil, and the European nations want a market to sell goods and services to. Thus, countries like Russia - and to a lesser extent Germany & France - don't mind selling whatever (up to centrifuges) while the U.S. backs Israel's 270 nuclear weapons being a monopoly in the region.
We seem to forget that we didn't go to war with Russia in 1947 when it became apparent that they were going down the nuclear highway, nor have we attacked North Korea yet, despite their open plans to build nuclear capabilities. A good backgrounder in the Christian Science Monitor this morning at http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0915/p01s01-wogi.html Extract: "The US wants the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to set a November deadline for action. If Iran didn't comply, it would be hauled before the UN Security Council for possible sanctions. Europe has moved closer to the US view recently, though the US still wants a more automatic "trigger" for action than many of its allies."
While we look for the Israelis to attack Iran's facilities before the elections, the independent thinker has to ask would it happen if they didn't have oil? You'll note that Pakistan hasn't been attacked. The fact that Pakistan doesn't hold significant oil resources, and not being a major EU trading partner, spared them all the trumped up righteousness of the thinly disguised motives behind the UN debate. Iran won't be that lucky, because if the U.S. doesn't get its way, the air strikes will follow shortly thereafter.
"De-contextualising"
Chechnya
As long as we're talking about motives and principles applied unevenly, you
might want to read Dr. Gwynne Dyer's latest piece at
LINK Gee, you know how I hate to see Richard Perle sliced
and diced but Dyer's right - Perl and his neobuddies can't suggest
"de-contextualizing" the Palestinian terrorism issue but only apply
it to situations where it fits the neo-think objectives. A well
written piece touching on Perle's allegiance to Israel's agenda for your
reading list.
OPEC Meets Today
Just as a major pipeline in northern Iraq was fixed this week, along came Iraqi insurgents who blew it up again: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A56F79CB-8AB1-412E-A022-46883C79AF78.htm Meantime, OPEC is meeting today in Vienna to talk about product quota increases (The Saudis will push for it) We expect OPEC will opt for a price-driven quota that will hold oil above $40 and below $55. We expect the OPEC discussions will be a balancing act: they'll do whatever necessary to keep the Western economies intact (so they can make out on their investments of oil money) while at the same time not encouraging wasteful consumption through artificially low prices. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7832F1C6-040C-4F5A-89A5-9E589A20B02E.htmm
Tuesday
From our Midnight CDT Update
Nightmare Exit
Here's the midnight update from our Houston Bureau:
One group of evacuees from New Orleans left the city by car at 9 am (cdt). By 7 pm, they had only reached Lafayette. Traffic was bumper to bumper even with both sides of I-10 open to westbound traffic up to the Texas border (Vidor). Evacuees reported that all the license plates were Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.
The individual who left by air arrived in Houston at 4:30 pm despite having a ticket for a 6:30 pm flight. She reports that New Orleans airport was shutting down and that the airlines were filling every available seat with standbys, even though every flight was booked solid. In other words, about 10% of bookings were not making flights. If the airport is open tomorrow, it will be minimal staff: no restaurants, newsstands, bars, etc. All aircraft are being flown out of the region and there are no arriving flights.
At this point, travel time by road to Houston from New Orleans is estimated at 15 hours, based on current point-to-point actual drive time. Under normal circumstances, travel between the two cities is right at 6 hours.
All shipping in the Gulf is at a halt. All commercial ships, barges and boats have been docked and emptied, or anchored in the western Gulf. All personnel in the Gulf east of Intercoastal City, LA have been evacuated by air rather than crew boat (difference of 6-8 hours). This demonstrates that cost is no object to clear water-based assets. Crew boats are roughly $190/hour versus helicopter at $1,500/hour, and 25 people per run versus 6.
Talk on the street is that Biloxi is dead center for landfall. This has no basis in science, but rather is the general estimate of dozens of people who have been through many of these storms here.
More when available.
--30--
As of the overnight storm track update, it looks like Ivan has settled in on the New Orleans - Gulfport area - see our petroleum at risk analysis BELOW.
Exclusive! How Ivan Targets Oil & Gas
As we have mentioned since Monday, Hurricane Ivan's arrival in the Gulf of Mexico poses a significant risk to oil and gas production. Thanks to our Houston Bureau (and friends in the oil business) we're able to give you a very precise graphic showing what's at risk:
The above graphic demonstrates the threat to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas interests is accentuated as Ivan's track deviates westward from present estimates. The black dots represent one drilling rig or production platform each. The red, blue and green lines are oil, gas and condensate pipelines respectively. The map shows approximately the region from Intercoastal City, LA to Pensacola, FL..
The danger to platforms is obvious, however pipelines can be destroyed or damaged during strong storms by a number of factors, including: strong currents, ships dragging anchors and collapsed platforms.
(Hats off to BG in Houston for the help...)
Special 1:00 PM EDT Update
Leaving Louisiana Levee Lands
From our Gulf Coast sources:
"New Orleans residents have been advised to leave. Several first-hand reports are that it is taking an hour to get 10 miles on I-10 west, leaving town. Some people are giving up and either returning home or going to the nearest hotel/motel to wait out the traffic. One woman interviewed said she is leaving momentarily (11:35 am cdt) to allow 6 hours to get to the airport from downtown, normally a 30 minute to 45 minute trip in traffic.
Flights are completely booked as of early this morning. One interviewee made her reservations Sunday afternoon immediately after stepping off the plane from Houston. "
Further reports as they come in from our Houston bureau. We understand that N.O. Mayor C. Ray Nagin will be holding a noon press conference with his department heads to talk about the batten down and button up plans... Oil up 62 cents on Gulf operations shutting down and Natural Gas is quoted up about 11 cents.
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City Of New Orleans Mayors Office of Communications 1300 Perdido Street, Suite 2E04 New Orleans, Louisiana 70112 504-565-6580 |
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C. Ray Nagin MAYOR |
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 14, 2004 |
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Mayor Nagin Closes City Hall
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British Climate Change Jitters
We've got mixed feelings about the comments of British Prime Minister Tony Blair about climate change - in the wake of the hurricane nightmares of the Southeast U.S. STORY But what we find more curious is that the comments Blair is making would make more sense to us coming from an American government leader, don't you think?
As long as we're dealing with climate change and clouded thinking, we should point out to you that a good portion of the global climate change - better than 99 percent by some estimates - has nothing to do with how humans live and consume fossil fuels. Instead, it has to do with long period fluctuations in the heat from the sun - and you'll find with little research that NASA is hatching plans to study global warming of the planets more closely" http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/ That said, we've found some interesting "disappearing work" in the subject - LINK as an example - where we read this hypothesis as an area for study: "
"HYPOTHESIS:
Our Hypothesis is that Solar System weather is directly related to distance from the sun. The sun controls the weather on the planets and ultimately determines its fate. The conditions on the sun, including sunspots and other weather phenomena also attribute to the weather on the planets. "
Elsewhere, we read that "Data gathered by NASA’s Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft suggest that the Martian climate may have changed significantly in the past, and may be changing quickly even now. According to two papers published in the Dec. 7, 2001, issue of Science, these changes may happen over a much shorter time scale than scientists previously thought. " http://www.geotimes.org/feb02/NN_MarsCC.html
The European Space Agency reported in March of this year that looking at other planets suggests that the core issue of global warming is carbon dioxide production "On Earth, carbon dioxide makes up only a tiny fraction of the atmosphere. However, man-made emissions have caused carbon dioxide concentrations here to increase by about 30% since pre-industrial times." http://www.esa.int/esaSC/SEM6JHX5WRD_index_0.html
But back to the story today: Yes, the British should be nervous, because they are more northerly than basically the whole U.S. BUT: Do we really need Britain's leading promoter of the British participation in Iraq War 2 trying to change the subjects, if you will?
More Bombings in Baghdad
Although the official line from the White House is that elections will take place in January 2005 in Iraq, we don't see a ghost's chance in hell of it happening. Forgive our skepticism, but this morning we had dozens more killed in another big car bombing: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3654176.stm The big lie the administration has to keep up at least until election day is that the war is winnable - which we seriously doubt. That's not to be interpreted as a lapse of patriotism, mind you. I love our Constitution and Bill of Rights as much as any other red-blooded American. But what the web bots have been showing - and the headlines support - is that Iraq is headed for civil war and damn quickly at that.
Just today, Turkey is telling the US that it will stop cooperating with the US if we keep moving toward the northern Iraqi town of Talafar. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3653868.stm Turkey figures this is more like their territory than Iraq's.
All of these factors have combined to force Bush & company t