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HAARP Lessons
Anyone?
So there I was,
happily taking a couple of hours to tune up my ham radio
installation on the car. Removing the old magnetic
mounting system, I opted for a very good trunk lip variety.
While tuning things up on the 75 meter ham band I noticed a
strange signal on 3861 khz. Odd...then I listened a bit
more and to my ear, it had
the typical
signature of HAARP. And then it was shut off.
Click.
Here's a head
scratcher for you:
What is
a HAARP-like signal doing bathing the L.A. area is complex wave form at
noon'ish on a weekend? If you speculate that it's part of
an earthquake or weather modification program, you'd be in the
company of Scott Stevens.
Scott, you may recall, is the TV weatherman in Idaho who has now
quit his job to go fulltime on the hunt for the facts
surrounding HAARP and the so-called scalar wave patterns (Moire
patterns technically) in the clouds around oddly behaving
hurricanes.
While I haven't made
up my mind one way or the other on this, I'm at least keeping it
open. Sure, I'm an old RF guy with 40-years of electronics
under the belt and I know inverse-square laws forward and back.
On the other hand, I also have read enough scalar physics to
understand that there are more than 3-dimensions out there and
so-called "zero-point" energy is becoming science fact.
If your world is defined by inverse/square law physics, you need
to be aware there are thousands of people working the other side
of that street nowadays.
Now, when someone
points to oddly Moire looking patterns around the edges of
hurricanes I am paying attention. Stop and think about it:
If you drop food color into a glass of water, you get a complex
pattern. You don't get squares. The people who are
holding on to the "old physics": have never bothered to read the
rest of the Heavyside equations and Maxwell's reduction is so
much simpler and initially useful.
I think my bottom
line - and it's a strange one to put out there - is this:
If L.A. has a significant earthquake in the next week, you can
be sure the odds of a
high signal
strength complex waveform bathing L.A. in the under 3 MHz (3000
khz) range, and occasionally popping up around 3861 khz will be
highly suspect in my book.
Like
Dr. Nick Begich said: "Angles don't play this HAARP"
And there ain't much borealis to study in the summertime, is
there? How many ionospheric heater projects are there?
The Eastlund
Patent
Can small electronic
heating of the atmosphere really drive something as big as a
hurricane by modifying things on one side of its path or the
other? Decide for yourself. From the U.S.
Government's public patent file, here's weekend reading for the
aware:
United States Patent 4,686,605 Eastlund August 11, 1987
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Method and apparatus for altering a region in the earth's
atmosphere, ionosphere, and/or magnetosphere
Abstract A method and apparatus for altering at least one
selected region which normally exists above the earth's
surface. The region is excited by electron cyclotron
resonance heating to thereby increase its charged particle
density. In one embodiment, circularly polarized
electromagnetic radiation is transmitted upward in a
direction substantially parallel to and along a field line
which extends through the region of plasma to be altered.
The radiation is transmitted at a frequency which excites
electron cyclotron resonance to heat and accelerate the
charged particles. This increase in energy can cause
ionization of neutral particles which are then absorbed as
part of the region thereby increasing the charged particle
density of the region.
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Inventors: Eastlund; Bernard J. (Spring, TX) Assignee: APTI,
Inc. (Los Angeles, CA) Appl. No.: 690333 Filed: January 10,
1985
Current U.S. Class: 361/231; 89/1.11; 244/158R; 380/59
Intern'l Class: H05B 006/64; H05C 003/00; H05H 001/46 Field
of Search: 361/230,231 244/158 R 376/100 89/1.11 380/59
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References Cited [Referenced By]
Other References Liberty Magazine, (2/35) p. 7 N. Tesla.
New York Times (9/22/40) Section 2, p. 7 W. L. Laurence. New
York Times (12/8/15) p. 8 Col. 3.
Primary Examiner: Cangialosi; Salvatore Attorney, Agent
or Firm: MacDonald; Roderick W.
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Claims
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I claim:
1. A method for altering at least one region normally
existing above the earth's surface with electromagnetic
radiation using naturally-occurring and diverging magnetic
field lines of the earth comprising transmitting first
electromagnetic radiation at a frequency between 20 and 7200
kHz from the earth's surface, said transmitting being
conducted essentially at the outset of transmission
substantially parallel to and along at least one of said
field lines, adjusting the frequency of said first radiation
to a value which will excite electron cyclotron resonance at
an initial elevation at least 50 km above the earth's
surface, whereby in the region in which said electron
cyclotron resonance takes place heating, further ionization,
and movement of both charged and neutral particles is
effected, said cyclotron resonance excitation of said region
is continued until the electron concentration of said region
reaches a value of at least 10.sup.6 per cubic centimeter
and has an ion energy of at least 2 ev.
2. The method of claim 1 including the step of providing
artificial particles in said at least one region which are
excited by said electron cyclotron resonance.
3. The method of claim 2 wherein said artificial
particles are provided by injecting same into said at least
one region from an orbiting satellite.
4. The method of claim 1 wherein said threshold
excitation of electron cyclotron resonance is about 1 watt
per cubic centimeter and is sufficient to cause movement of
a plasma region along said diverging magnetic field lines to
an altitude higher than the altitude at which said
excitation was initiated.
5. The method of claim 4 wherein said rising plasma
region pulls with it a substantial portion of neutral
particles of the atmosphere which exist in or near said
plasma region.
6. The method of claim 1 wherein there is provided at
least one separate source of second electromagnetic
radiation, said second radiation having at least one
frequency different from said first radiation, impinging
said at least one second radiation on said region while said
region is undergoing electron cyclotron resonance excitation
caused by said first radiation.
7. The method of claim 6 wherein said second radiation
has a frequency which is absorbed by said region.
8. The method of claim 6 wherein said region is plasma in
the ionosphere and said second radiation excites plasma
waves within said ionosphere.
9. The method of claim 8 wherein said electron
concentration reaches a value of at least 10.sup.12 per
cubic centimeter.
10. The method of claim 8 wherein said excitation of
electron cyclotron resonance is initially carried out within
the ionosphere and is continued for a time sufficient to
allow said region to rise above said ionosphere.
11. The method of claim 1 wherein said excitation of
electron cyclotron resonance is carried out above about 500
kilometers and for a time of from 0.1 to 1200 seconds such
that multiple heating of said plasma region is achieved by
means of stochastic heating in the magnetosphere.
12. The method of claim 1 wherein said first
electromagnetic radiation is right hand circularly polarized
in the northern hemisphere and left hand circularly
polarized in the southern hemisphere.
13. The method of claim 1 wherein said electromagnetic
radiation is generated at the site of a naturally-occurring
hydrocarbon fuel source, said fuel source being located in
at least one of northerly or southerly magnetic latitudes.
14. The method of claim 13 wherein said fuel source is
natural gas and electricity for generating said
electromagnetic radiation is obtained by burning said
natural gas in at least one of magnetohydrodynamic, gas
turbine, fuel cell, and EGD electric generators located at
the site where said natural gas naturally occurs in the
earth.
15. The method of claim 14 wherein said site of natural
gas is within the magnetic latitudes that encompass Alaska.
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Description
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DESCRIPTION
1. Technical Field
This invention relates to a method and apparatus for
altering at least one selected region normally existing
above the earth's surface and more particularly relates to a
method and apparatus for altering said at least one region
by initially transmitting electromagnetic radiation from the
earth's surface essentially parallel to and along
naturally-occurring, divergent magnetic field lines which
extend from the earth's surface through the region or
regions to be altered.
2. Background Art
In the late 1950's, it was discovered that naturally-occuring
belts exist at high altitudes above the earth's surface, and
it is now established that these belts result from charged
electrons and ions becoming trapped along the magnetic lines
of force (field lines) of the earth's essentially dipole
magnetic field. The trapped electrons and ions are confined
along the field lines between two magnetic mirrors which
exist at spaced apart points along those field lines. The
trapped electrons and ions move in helical paths around
their particular field lines and "bounce" back and forth
between the magnetic mirrors. These trapped electrons and
ions can oscillate along the field lines for long periods of
time.
In the past several years, substantial effort has been
made to understand and explain the phenomena involved in
belts of trapped electrons and ions, and to explore possible
ways to control and use these phenomena for beneficial
purposes. For example, in the late 1950's and early 1960's
both the United States and U.S.S.R. detonated a series of
nuclear devices of various yields to generate large numbers
of charged particles at various altitudes, e.g., 200
kilometers (km) or greater. This was done in order to
establish and study artifical belts of trapped electrons and
ions. These experiments established that at least some of
the extraneous electrons and ions from the detonated devices
did become trapped along field lines in the earth's
magnetosphere to form artificial belts which were stable for
prolonged periods of time. For a discussion of these
experiments see "The Radiation Belt and Magnetosphere", W.
N. Hess, Blaisdell Publishing Co., 1968, pps. 155 et sec.
Other proposals which have been advanced for altering
existing belts of trapped electrons and ions and/or
establishing similar artificial belts include injecting
charged particles from a satellite carrying a payload of
radioactive beta-decay material or alpha emitters; and
injecting charged particles from a satellite-borne electron
accelerator. Still another approach is described in U.S.
Pat. No. 4,042,196 wherein a low energy ionized gas, e.g.,
hydrogen, is released from a synchronous orbiting satellite
near the apex of a radiation belt which is
naturally-occurring in the earth's magnetosphere to produce
a substantial increase in energetic particle precipitation
and, under certain conditions, produce a limit in the number
of particles that can be stably trapped. This precipitation
effect arises from an enhancement of the whistler-mode and
ion-cyclotron mode interactions that result from the ionized
gas or "cold plasma" injection.
It has also been proposed to release large clouds of
barium in the magnetosphere so that photoionization will
increase the cold plasma density, thereby producing electron
precipitation through enhanced whistler-mode interactions.
However, in all of the above-mentioned approaches, the
mechanisms involved in triggering the change in the trapped
particle phenomena must be actually positioned within the
affected zone, e.g., the magnetosphere, before they can be
actuated to effect the desired change.
The earth's ionosphere is not considered to be a
"trapped" belt since there are few trapped particles
therein. The term "trapped" herein refers to situations
where the force of gravity on the trapped particles is
balanced by magnetic forces rather than hydrostatic or
collisional forces. The charged electrons and ions in the
ionosphere also follow helical paths around magnetic field
lines within the ionosphere but are not trapped between
mirrors, as in the case of the trapped belts in the
magnetosphere, since the gravitational force on the
particles is balanced by collisional or hydrostatic forces.
In recent years, a number of experiments have actually
been carried out to modify the ionosphere in some controlled
manner to investigate the possibility of a beneficial
result. For detailed discussions of these operations see the
following papers: (1) Ionospheric Modification Theory; G.
Meltz and F. W. Perkins; (2) The Platteville High Power
Facility; Carrol et al.; (3) Arecibo Heating Experiments; W.
E. Gordon and H. C. Carlson, Jr.; and (4) Ionospheric
Heating by Powerful Radio Waves; Meltz et al., all published
in Radio Science, Vol. 9, No. 11, November, 1974, at pages
885-888; 889-894; 1041-1047; and 1049-1063, respectively,
all of which are incorporated herein by reference. In such
experiments, certain regions of the ionosphere are heated to
change the electron density and temperature within these
regions. This is accomplished by transmitting from
earth-based antennae high frequency electromagnetic
radiation at a substantial angle to, not parallel to, the
ionosphere's magnetic field to heat the ionospheric
particles primarily by ohmic heating. The electron
temperature of the ionosphere has been raised by hundreds of
degrees in these experiments, and electrons with several
electron volts of energy have been produced in numbers
sufficient to enhance airglow. Electron concentrations have
been reduced by a few percent, due to expansion of the
plasma as a result of increased temperature.
In the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT), a controlled fusion device
at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, all heating is
provided by microwaves at the electron cyclotron resonance
interaction. A ring of hot electrons is formed at the
earth's surface in the magnetic mirror by a combination of
electron cyclotron resonance and stochastic heating. In the
EBT, the ring electrons are produced with an average
"temperature" of 250 kilo electron volts or kev
(2.5.times.10.sup.9 K) and a plasma beta between 0.1 and
0.4; see, "A Theoretical Study of Electron--Cyclotron
Absorption in Elmo Bumpy Torus", Batchelor and Goldfinger,
Nuclear Fusion, Vol. 20, No. 4 (1980) pps. 403-418.
Electron cyclotron resonance heating has been used in
experiments on the earth's surface to produce and accelerate
plasmas in a diverging magnetic field. Kosmahl et al. showed
that power was transferred from the electromagnetic waves
and that a fully ionized plasma was accelerated with a
divergence angle of roughly 13 degrees. Optimum neutral gas
density was 1.7.times.10.sup.14 per cubic centimeter; see,
"Plasma Acceleration with Microwaves Near Cyclotron
Resonance", Kosmahl et al., Journal of Applied Physics, Vol.
38, No. 12, Nov., 1967, pps. 4576-4582.
DISCLOSURE OF THE INVENTION
The present invention provides a method and apparatus for
altering at least one selected region which normally exists
above the earth's surface. The region is excited by electron
cyclotron resonance heating of electrons which are already
present and/or artifically created in the region to thereby
increase the charged particle energy and ultimately the
density of the region.
In one embodiment this is done by transmitting circularly
polarized electromagnetic radiation from the earth's surface
at or near the location where a naturally-occurring dipole
magnetic field (force) line intersects the earth's surface.
Right hand circular polarization is used in the northern
hemisphere and left hand circular polarization is used in
the southern hemisphere. The radiation is deliberately
transmitted at the outset in a direction substantially
parallel to and along a field line which extends upwardly
through the region to be altered. The radiation is
transmitted at a frequency which is based on the
gyrofrequency of the charged particles and which, when
applied to the at least one region, excites electron
cyclotron resonance within the region or regions to heat and
accelerate the charged particles in their respective helical
paths around and along the field line. Sufficient energy is
employed to cause ionization of neutral particles (molecules
of oxygen, nitrogen and the like, particulates, etc.) which
then become a part of the region thereby increasing the
charged particle density of the region. This effect can
further be enhanced by providing artificial particles, e.g.,
electrons, ions, etc., directly into the region to be
affected from a rocket, satellite, or the like to supplement
the particles in the naturally-occurring plasma. These
artificial particles are also ionized by the transmitted
electromagnetic radiation thereby increasing charged
particle density of the resulting plasma in the region.
In another embodiment of the invention, electron
cyclotron resonance heating is carried out in the selected
region or regions at sufficient power levels to allow a
plasma present in the region to generate a mirror force
which forces the charged electrons of the altered plasma
upward along the force line to an altitude which is higher
than the original altitude. In this case the relevant mirror
points are at the base of the altered region or regions. The
charged electrons drag ions with them as well as other
particles that may be present. Sufficient power, e.g.,
10.sup.15 joules, can be applied so that the altered plasma
can be trapped on the field line between mirror points and
will oscillate in space for prolonged periods of time. By
this embodiment, a plume of altered plasma can be
established at selected locations for communication
modification or other purposes.
In another embodiment, this invention is used to alter at
least one selected region of plasma in the ionosphere to
establish a defined layer of plasma having an increased
charged particle density. Once this layer is established,
and while maintaining the transmission of the main beam of
circularly polarized electromagnetic radiation, the main
beam is modulated and/or at least one second different,
modulated electromagnetic radiation beam is transmitted from
at least one separate source at a different frequency which
will be absorbed in the plasma layer. The amplitude of the
frequency of the main beam and/or the second beam or beams
is modulated in resonance with at least one known
oscillation mode in the selected region or regions to excite
the known oscillation mode to propagate a known frequency
wave or waves throughout the ionosphere.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
The actual construction, operation, and apparent
advantages of this invention will be better understood by
referring to the drawings in which like numerals identify
like parts and in which:
FIG. 1 is a simplified schematical view of the earth (not
to scale) with a magnetic field (force) line along which the
present invention is carried out;
FIG. 2 is one embodiment within the present invention in
which a selected region of plasma is raised to a higher
altitude;
FIG. 3 is a simplified, idealized representation of a
physical phenomenon involved in the present invention; and
FIG. 4 is a schematic view of another embodiment within
the present invention.
FIG. 5 is a schematic view of an apparatus embodiment
within this invention .
BEST MODES FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
The earth's magnetic field is somewhat analogous to a
dipole bar magnet. As such, the earth's magnetic field
contains numerous divergent field or force lines, each line
intersecting the earth's surface at points on opposite sides
of the Equator. The field lines which intersect the earth's
surface near the poles have apexes which lie at the furthest
points in the earth's magnetosphere while those closest to
the Equator have apexes which reach only the lower portion
of the magnetosphere.
At various altitudes above the earth's surface, e.g., in
both the ionosphere and the magnetosphere, plasma is
naturally present along these field lines. This plasma
consists of equal numbers of positively and negatively
charged particles (i.e., electrons and ions) which are
guided by the field line. It is well established that a
charged particle in a magnetic field gyrates about field
lines, the center of gyration at any instance being called
the "guiding center" of the particle. As the gyrating
particle moves along a field line in a uniform field, it
will follow a helical path about its guiding center, hence
linear motion, and will remain on the field line. Electrons
and ions both follow helical paths around a field line but
rotate in opposite directions. The frequencies at which the
electrons and ions rotate about the field line are called
gyromagnetic frequencies or cyclotron frequencies because
they are identical with the expression for the angular
frequencies of gyration of particles in a cyclotron. The
cyclotron frequency of ions in a given magnetic field is
less than that of electrons, in inverse proportion to their
masses.
If the particles which form the plasma along the earth's
field lines continued to move with a constant pitch angle,
often designated "alpha", they would soon impact on the
earth's surface. Pitch angle alpha is defined as the angle
between the direction of the earth's magnetic field and the
velocity (V) of the particle. However, in converging force
fields, the pitch angle does change in such a way as to
allow the particle to turn around and avoid impact. Consider
a particle moving along a field line down toward the earth.
It moves into a region of increasing magnetic field strength
and therefore sine alpha increases. But sine alpha can only
increase to 1.0, at which point, the particle turns around
and starts moving up along the field line, and alpha
decreases. The point at which the particle turns around is
called the mirror point, and there alpha equals ninety
degrees. This process is repeated at the other end of the
field line where the same magnetic field strength value B,
namely Bm, exists. The particle again turns around and this
is called the "conjugate point" of the original mirror
point. The particle is therefore trapped and bounces between
the two magnetic mirrors. The particle can continue
oscillating in space in this manner for long periods of
time. The actual place where a particle will mirror can be
calculated from the following:
sin.sup.2 alpha.sub.o =B.sub.o /B.sub.m (1)
wherein:
alpha.sub.o =equatorial pitch angle of particle
B.sub.o =equatorial field strength on a particular field
line
B.sub.m =field strength at the mirror point
Recent discoveries have established that there are
substantial regions of naturally trapped particles in space
which are commonly called "trapped radiation belts". These
belts occur at altitudes greater than about 500 km and
accordingly lie in the magnetosphere and mostly above the
ionosphere.
The ionosphere, while it may overlap some of the
trapped-particle belts, is a region in which hydrostatic
forces govern its particle distribution in the gravitational
field. Particle motion within the ionosphere is governed by
both hydrodynamic and electrodynamic forces. While there are
few trapped particles in the ionosphere, nevertheless,
plasma is present along field lines in the ionosphere. The
charged particles which form this plasma move between
collisions with other particles along similar helical paths
around the field lines and although a particular particle
may diffuse downward into the earth's lower atmosphere or
lose energy and diverge from its original field line due to
collisions with other particles, these charged particles are
normally replaced by other available charged particles or by
particles that are ionized by collision with said particle.
The electron density (N.sub.e) of the plasma will vary with
the actual conditions and locations involved. Also, neutral
particles, ions, and electrons are present in proximity to
the field lines.
The production of enhanced ionization will also alter the
distribution of atomic and molecular constituents of the
atmosphere, most notably through increased atomic nitrogen
concentration. The upper atmosphere is normally rich in
atomic oxygen (the dominant atmospheric constituent above
200 km altitude), but atomic nitrogen is normally relatively
rare. This can be expected to manifest itself in increased
airglow, among other effects.
As known in plasma physics, the characteristics of a
plasma can be altered by adding energy to the charged
particles or by ionizing or exciting additional particles to
increase the density of the plasma. One way to do this is by
heating the plasma which can be accomplished in different
ways, e.g., ohmic, magnetic compression, shock waves,
magnetic pumping, electron cyclotron resonance, and the
like.
Since electron cyclotron resonance heating is involved in
the present invention, a brief discussion of same is in
order. Increasing the energy of electrons in a plasma by
invoking electron cyclotron resonance heating, is based on a
principle similar to that utilized to accelerate charged
particles in a cyclotron. If a plasma is confined by a
static axial magnetic field of strength B, the charged
particles will gyrate about the lines of force with a
frequency given, in hertz, as f.sub.g =1.54.times.10.sup.3
B/A, where: B=magnetic field strength in gauss, and A=mass
number of the ion.
Suppose a time-varying field of this frequency is
superimposed on the static field B confining the plasma, by
passage of a radiofrequency current through a coil which is
concentric with that producing the axial field, then in each
half-cycle of their rotation about the field lines, the
charged particles acquire energy from the oscillating
electric field associated with the radio frequency. For
example, if B is 10,000 gauss, the frequency of the field
which is in resonance with protons in a plasma is 15.4
megahertz.
As applied to electrons, electron cyclotron resonance
heating requires an oscillating field having a definite
frequency determined by the strength of the confining field.
The radio-frequency radiation produces time-varying fields
(electric and magnetic), and the electric field accelerates
the charged particle. The energized electrons share their
energy with ions and neutrals by undergoing collisions with
these particles, thereby effectively raising the temperature
of the electrons, ions, and neutrals. The apportionment of
energy among these species is determined by collision
frequencies. For a more detailed understanding of the
physics involved, see "Controlled Thermonuclear Reactions",
Glasstone and Lovberg, D. Van Nostrand Company, Inc.,
Princeton, N.J., 1960 and "The Radiation Belt and
Magnetosphere", Hess, Blaisdell Publishing Company, 1968,
both of which are incorporated herein by reference.
Referring now to the drawings, the present invention
provides a method and apparatus for altering at least one
region of plasma which lies along a field line, particularly
when it passes through the ionosphere and/or magnetosphere.
FIG. 1 is a simplified illustration of the earth 10 and one
of its dipole magnetic force or field lines 11. As will be
understood, line 11 may be any one of the numerous naturally
existing field lines and the actual geographical locations
13 and 14 of line 11 will be chosen based on a particular
operation to be carried out. The actual locations at which
field lines intersect the earth's surface is documented and
is readily ascertainable by those skilled in the art.
Line 11 passes through region R which lies at an altitude
above the earth's surface. A wide range of altitudes are
useful given the power that can be employed by the practice
of this invention. The electron cyclotron resonance heating
effect can be made to act on electrons anywhere above the
surface of the earth. These electrons may be already present
in the atmosphere, ionosphere, and/or magnetosphere of the
earth, or can be artificially generated by a variety of
means such as x-ray beams, charged particle beams, lasers,
the plasma sheath surrounding an object such as a missile or
meteor, and the like. Further, artificial particles, e.g.,
electrons, ions, etc., can be injected directly into region
R from an earth-launched rocket or orbiting satellite
carrying, for example, a payload of radioactive beta-decay
material; alpha emitters; an electron accelerator; and/or
ionized gases such as hydrogen; see U.S. Pat. No. 4,042,196.
The altitude can be greater than about 50 km if desired,
e.g., can be from about 50 km to about 800 km, and,
accordingly may lie in either the ionosphere or the
magnetosphere or both. As explained above, plasma will be
present along line 11 within region R and is represented by
the helical line 12. Plasma 12 is comprised of charged
particles (i.e., electrons and ions) which rotate about
opposing helical paths along line 11.
Antenna 15 is positioned as close as is practical to the
location 14 where line 11 intersects the earth's surface.
Antenna 15 may be of any known construction for high
directionality, for example, a phased array, beam spread
angle (.theta.) type. See "The MST Radar at Poker Flat,
Alaska", Radio Science, Vol. 15, No. 2, Mar.-Apr. 1980, pps.
213-223, which is incorporated herein by reference. Antenna
15 is coupled to transmitter 16 which generates a beam of
high frequency electromagnetic radiation at a wide range of
discrete frequencies, e.g., from about 20 to about 1800
kilohertz (kHz).
Transmitter 16 is powered by power generator means 17
which is preferably comprised of one or more large,
commercial electrical generators. Some embodiments of the
present invention require large amounts of power, e.g., up
to 10.sup.9 to 10.sup.11 watts, in continuous wave or pulsed
power. Generation of the needed power is within the state of
the art. Although the electrical generators necessary for
the practice of the invention can be powered in any known
manner, for example, by nuclear reactors, hydroelectric
facilities, hydrocarbon fuels, and the like, this invention,
because of its very large power requirement in certain
applications, is particularly adapted for use with certain
types of fuel sources which naturally occur at strategic
geographical locations around the earth. For example, large
reserves of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) exist in
Alaska and Canada. In northern Alaska, particularly the
North Slope region, large reserves are currently readily
available. Alaska and northern Canada also are ideally
located geographically as to magnetic latitudes. Alaska
provides easy access to magnetic field lines that are
especially suited to the practice of this invention, since
many field lines which extend to desirable altitudes for
this invention intersect the earth in Alaska. Thus, in
Alaska, there is a unique combination of large, accessible
fuel sources at desirable field line intersections. Further,
a particularly desirable fuel source for the generation of
very large amounts of electricity is present in Alaska in
abundance, this source being natural gas. The presence of
very large amounts of clean-burning natural gas in Alaskan
latitudes, particularly on the North Slope, and the
availability of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), gas turbine, fuel
cell, electrogasdynamic (EGD) electric generators which
operate very efficiently with natural gas provide an ideal
power source for the unprecedented power requirements of
certain of the applications of this invention. For a more
detailed discussion of the various means for generating
electricity from hydrocarbon fuels, see "Electrical Aspects
of Combustion", Lawton and Weinberg, Clarendon Press, 1969.
For example, it is possible to generate the electricity
directly at the high frequency needed to drive the antenna
system. To do this, typically the velocity of flow of the
combustion gases (v), past magnetic field perturbation of
dimension d (in the case of MHD), follow the rule:
v=df
where f is the frequency at which electricity is
generated. Thus, if v=1.78.times.10.sup.6 cm/sec and d=1 cm
then electricity would be generated at a frequency of 1.78
mHz.
Put another way, in Alaska, the right type of fuel
(natural gas) is naturally present in large amounts and at
just the right magnetic latitudes for the most efficient
practice of this invention, a truly unique combination of
circumstances. Desirable magnetic latitudes for the practice
of this invention interest the earth's surface both
northerly and southerly of the equator, particularly
desirable latitudes being those, both northerly and
southerly, which correspond in magnitude with the magnetic
latitudes that encompass Alaska.
Referring now to FIG. 2 a first ambodiment is illustrated
where a selected region R.sub.1 of plasma 12 is altered by
electron cyclotron resonance heating to accelerate the
electrons of plasma 12, which are following helical paths
along field line 11.
To accomplish this result, electromagnetic radiation is
transmitted at the outset, essentially parallel to line 11
via antenna 15 as right hand circularly polarized radiation
wave 20. Wave 20 has a frequency which will excite electron
cyclotron resonance with plasma 12 at its initial or
original altitude. This frequency will vary depending on the
electron cyclotron resonance of region R.sub.1 which, in
turn, can be determined from available data based on the
altitudes of region R.sub.1, the particular field line 11
being used, the strength of the earth's magnetic field, etc.
Frequencies of from about 20 to about 7200 kHz, preferably
from about 20 to about 1800 kHz can be employed. Also, for
any given application, there will be a threshhold (minimum
power level) which is needed to produce the desired result.
The minimum power level is a function of the level of plasma
production and movement required, taking into consideration
any loss processes that may be dominant in a particular
plasma or propagation path.
As electron cyclotron resonance is established in plasma
12, energy is transferred from the electromagnetic radiation
20 into plasma 12 to heat and accelerate the electrons
therein and, subsequently, ions and neutral particles. As
this process continues, neutral particles which are present
within R.sub.1 are ionized and absorbed into plasma 12 and
this increases the electron and ion densities of plasma 12.
As the electron energy is raised to values of about 1 kilo
electron volt (kev), the generated mirror force (explained
below) will direct the excited plasma 12 upward along line
11 to form a plume R.sub.2 at an altitude higher than that
of R.sub.1.
Plasma acceleration results from the force on an electron
produced by a nonuniform static magnetic field (B). The
force, called the mirror force, is given by
F=-.mu..gradient.B (2)
where .mu. is the electron magnetic moment and .gradient.
B is the gradient of the magnetic field, .mu. being further
defined as:
W.sub..perp. /B=mV.sub..perp..sup.2 /2B
where W.sub..perp. is the kinetic energy in the direction
perpendicular to that of the magnetic field lines and B is
the magnetic field strength at the line of force on which
the guiding center of the particle is located. The force as
represented by equation (2) is the force which is
responsible for a particle obeying equation (1).
Since the magnetic field is divergent in region R.sub.1,
it can be shown that the plasma will move upwardly from the
heating region as shown in FIG. 1 and further it can be
shown that
1/2M.sub.e V.sub.e.perp..sup.2 (x).apprxeq.1/2M.sub.e
V.sub.e.perp..sup.2 (Y)+1/2M.sub.i V.sub.i.parallel..sup.2
(Y) (3)
where the left hand side is the initial electron
transverse kinetic energy; the first term on the right is
the transverse electron kinetic energy at some point (Y) in
the expanded field region, while the final term is the ion
kinetic energy parallel to B at point (Y). This last term is
what constitutes the desired ion flow. It is produced by an
electrostatic field set up by electrons which are
accelerated according to Equation (2) in the divergent field
region and pulls ions along with them. Equation (3) ignores
electron kinetic energy parallel to B because
V.sub.e.parallel. .apprxeq.V.sub.i.parallel., so the bulk of
parallel kinetic energy resides in the ions because of their
greater masses. For example, if an electromagnetic energy
flux of from about 1 to about 10 watts per square centimeter
is applied to region R, whose altitude is 115 km, a plasma
having a density (N.sub.e) of 10.sup.12 per cubic centimeter
will be generated and moved upward to region R.sub.2 which
has an altitude of about 1000 km. The movement of electrons
in the plasma is due to the mirror force while the ions are
moved by ambipolar diffusion (which results from the
electrostatic field). This effectively "lifts" a layer of
plasma 12 from the ionosphere and/or magnetosphere to a
higher elevation R.sub.2. The total energy required to
create a plasma with a base area of 3 square kilometers and
a height of 1000 km is about 3.times.10.sup.13 joules.
FIG. 3 is an idealized representation of movement of
plasma 12 upon excitation by electron cyclotron resonance
within the earth's divergent force field. Electrons (e) are
accelerated to velocities required to generate the necessary
mirror force to cause their upward movement. At the same
time neutral particles (n) which are present along line 11
in region R.sub.1 are ionized and become part of plasma 12.
As electrons (e) move upward along line 11, they drag ions
(i) and neutrals (n) with them but at an angle .theta. of
about 13 degrees to field line 11. Also, any particulates
that may be present in region R.sub.1, will be swept
upwardly with the plasma. As the charged particles of plasma
12 move upward, other particles such as neutrals within or
below R.sub.1, move in to replace the upwardly moving
particles. These neutrals, under some conditions, can drag
with them charged particles.
For example, as a plasma moves upward, other particles at
the same altitude as the plasma move horizontally into the
region to replace the rising plasma and to form new plasma.
The kinetic energy developed by said other particles as they
move horizontally is, for example, on the same order of
magnitude as the total zonal kinetic energy of stratospheric
winds known to exist.
Referring again to FIG. 2, plasma 12 in region R.sub.1 is
moved upward along field line 11. The plasma 12 will then
form a plume (cross-hatched area in FIG. 2) which will be
relatively stable for prolonged periods of time. The exact
period of time will vary widely and be determined by
gravitational forces and a combination of radiative and
diffusive loss terms. In the previous detailed example, the
calculations were based on forming a plume by producing
0.sup.+ energies of 2 ev/particle. About 10 ev per particle
would be required to expand plasma 12 to apex point C (FIG.
1). There at least some of the particles of plasma 12 will
be trapped and will oscillate between mirror points along
field line 11. This oscillation will then allow additional
heating of the trapped plasma 12 by stochastic heating which
is associated with trapped and oscillating particles. See "A
New Mechanism for Accelerating Electrons in the Outer
Ionosphere" by R. A. Helliwell and T. F. Bell, Journal of
Geophysical Research, Vol. 65, No. 6, June, 1960. This is
preferably carried out at an altitude of at least 500 km.
The plasma of the typical example might be employed to
modify or disrupt microwave transmissions of satellites. If
less than total black-out of transmission is desired (e.g.,
scrambling by phase shifting digital signals), the density
of the plasma (N.sub.e) need only be at least about 10.sup.6
per cubic centimeter for a plasma orginating at an altitude
of from about 250 to about 400 km and accordingly less
energy (i.e., electromagnetic radiation), e.g., 10.sup.8
joules need be provided. Likewise, if the density N.sub.e is
on the order of 10.sup.8, a properly positioned plume will
provide a reflecting surface for VHF waves and can be used
to enhance, interfere with, or otherwise modify
communication transmissions. It can be seen from the
foregoing that by appropriate application of various aspects
of this invention at strategic locations and with adequate
power sources, a means and method is provided to cause
interference with or even total disruption of communications
over a very large portion of the earth. This invention could
be employed to disrupt not only land based communications,
both civilian and military, but also airborne communications
and sea communications (both surface and subsurface). This
would have significant military implications, particularly
as a barrier to or confusing factor for hostile missiles or
airplanes. The belt or belts of enhanced ionization produced
by the method and apparatus of this invention, particularly
if set up over Northern Alaska and Canada, could be employed
as an early warning device, as well as a communications
disruption medium. Further, the simple ability to produce
such a situation in a practical time period can by itself be
a deterring force to hostile action. The ideal combination
of suitable field lines intersecting the earth's surface at
the point where substantial fuel sources are available for
generation of very large quantitities of electromagnetic
power, such as the North Slope of Alaska, provides the
wherewithal to accomplish the foregoing in a practical time
period, e.g., strategic requirements could necessitate
achieving the desired altered regions in time periods of two
minutes or less and this is achievable with this invention,
especially when the combination of natural gas and
magnetohydrodynamic, gas turbine, fuel cell and/or EGD
electric generators are employed at the point where the
useful field lines intersect the earth's surface. One
feature of this invention which satisfies a basic
requirement of a weapon system, i.e., continuous checking of
operability, is that small amounts of power can be generated
for operability checking purposes. Further, in the
exploitation of this invention, since the main
electromagnetic beam which generates the enhanced ionized
belt of this invention can be modulated itself and/or one or
more additional electromagnetic radiation waves can be
impinged on the ionized region formed by this invention as
will be described in greater detail herein after with
respect to FIG. 4, a substantial amount of randomly
modulated signals of very large power magnitude can be
generated in a highly nonlinear mode. This can cause
confusion of or interference with or even complete
disruption of guidance systems employed by even the most
sophisticated of airplanes and missiles. The ability to
employ and transmit over very wide areas of the earth a
plurality of electromagnetic waves of varying frequencies
and to change same at will in a random manner, provides a
unique ability to interfere with all modes of
communications, land, sea, and/or air, at the same time.
Because of the unique juxtaposition of usable fuel source at
the point where desirable field lines intersect the earth's
surface, such wide ranging and complete communication
interference can be achieved in a resonably short period of
time. Because of the mirroring phenomenon discussed
hereinabove, it can also be prolonged for substantial time
periods so that it would not be a mere transient effect that
could simply be waited out by an opposing force. Thus, this
invention provides the ability to put unprecedented amounts
of power in the earth's atmosphere at strategic locations
and to maintain the power injection level, particularly if
random pulsing is employed, in a manner far more precise and
better controlled than heretofore accomplished by the prior
art, particularly by the detonation of nuclear devices of
various yeilds at various altitudes. Where the prior art
approaches yielded merely transitory effects, the unique
combination of fuel and desirable field lines at the point
where the fuel occurs allows the establishment of, compared
to prior art approaches, precisely controlled and
long-lasting effects which cannot, practically speaking,
simply be waited out. Further, by knowing the frequencies of
the various electromagnetic beams employed in the practice
of this invention, it is possible not only to interfere with
third party communications but to take advantage of one or
more such beams to carry out a communications network even
though the rest of the world's communications are disrupted.
Put another way, what is used to disrupt another's
communications can be employed by one knowledgeable of this
invention as a communications network at the same time. In
addition, once one's own communication network is
established, the far-reaching extent of the effects of this
invention could be employed to pick up communication signals
of other for intelligence purposes. Thus, it can be seen
that the disrupting effects achievable by this invention can
be employed to benefit by the party who is practicing this
invention since knowledge of the various electromagnetic
waves being employed and how they will vary in frequency and
magnitude can be used to an advantage for positive
communication and eavesdropping purposes at the same time.
However, this invention is not limited to locations where
the fuel source naturally exists or where desirable field
lines naturally intersect the earth's surface. For example,
fuel, particularly hydrocarbon fuel, can be transported by
pipeline and the like to the location where the invention is
to be practiced.
FIG. 4 illustrates another embodiment wherein a selected
region of plasma R.sub.3 which lies within the earth's
ionosphere is altered to increase the density thereof
whereby a relatively stable layer 30 of relatively dense
plasma is maintained within region R.sub.3. Electromagnetic
radiation is transmitted at the outset essentially parallel
to field line 11 via antenna 15 as a right hand circularly
polarized wave and at a frequency (e.g., 1.78 megahertz when
the magnetic field at the desired altitude is 0.66 gauss)
capable of exciting electron cyclotron resonance in plasma
12 at the particular altitude of plasma 12. This causes
heating of the particles (electrons, ions, neutrals, and
particulates) and ionization of the uncharged particles
adjacent line 11, all of which are absorbed into plasma 12
to increase the density thereof. The power transmitted,
e.g., 2.times.10.sup.6 watts for up to 2 minutes heating
time, is less than that required to generate the mirror
force F required to move plasma 12 upward as in the previous
embodiment.
While continuing to transmit electromagnetic radiation 20
from antenna 15, a second electromagnetic radiation beam 31,
which is at a defined frequency different from the radiation
from antenna 15, is transmitted from one or more second
sources via antenna 32 into layer 30 and is absorbed into a
portion of layer 30 (cross-hatched area in FIG. 4). The
electromagnetic radiation wave from antenna 32 is amplitude
modulated to match a known mode of oscillation f.sub.3 in
layer 30. This creates a resonance in layer 30 which excites
a new plasma wave 33 which also has a frequency of f.sub.3
and which then propogates through the ionosphere. Wave 33
can be used to improve or disrupt communications or both
depending on what is desired in a particular application. Of
course, more than one new wave 33 can be generated and the
various new waves can be modulated at will and in a highly
nonlinear fashion.
FIG. 5 shows apparatus useful in this invention,
particularly when those applications of this invention are
employed which require extremely large amounts of power. In
FIG. 5 there is shown the earth's surface 40 with a well 41
extending downwardly thereinto until it penetrates
hydrocarbon producing reservoir 42. Hydrocarbon reservoir 42
produces natural gas alone or in combination with crude oil.
Hydrocarbons are produced from reservoir 42 through well 41
and wellhead 43 to a treating system 44 by way of pipe 45.
In treater 44, desirable liquids such as crude oil and gas
condensates are separated and recovered by way of pipe 46
while undesirable gases and liquids such as water, H.sub.2
S, and the like are separated by way of pipe 47. Desirable
gases such as carbon dioxide are separated by way of pipe
48, and the remaining natural gas stream is removed from
treater 44 by way of pipe 49 for storage in conventional
tankage means (not shown) for future use and/or use in an
electrical generator such as a magnetohydrodynamic, gas
turbine, fuel cell or EGD generator 50. Any desired number
and combination of different types of electric generators
can be employed in the practice of this invention. The
natural gas is burned in generator 50 to produce substantial
quantities of electricity which is then stored and/or passed
by way of wire 51 to a transmitter 52 which generates the
electromagnetic radiation to be used in the method of this
invention. The electromagnetic radiation is then passed by
way of wire 53 to antenna 54 which is located at or near the
end of field line 11. Antenna 54 sends circularly polarized
radiation wave 20 upwards along field line 11 to carry out
the various methods of this invention as described
hereinabove.
Of course, the fuel source need not be used in its
naturally-occurring state but could first be converted to
another second energy source form such as hydrogen,
hydrazine and the like, and electricity then generated from
said second energy source form.
It can be seen from the foregoing that when desirable
field line 11 intersects earth's surface 40 at or near a
large naturally-occurring hydrocarbon source 42, exceedingly
large amounts of power can be very efficiently produced and
transmitted in the direction of field lines. This is
particularly so when the fuel source is natural gas and
magnetohydrodynamic generators are employed. Further, this
can all be accomplished in a relatively small physical area
when there is the unique coincidence of fuel source 42 and
desirable field line 11. Of course, only one set of
equipment is shown in FIG. 5 for sake of simplicity. For a
large hydrocarbon reservoir 42, a plurality of wells 41 can
be employed to feed one or more storage means and/or
treaters and as large a number of generators 55 as needed to
power one or more transmitters 52 and one or more antennas
54. Since all of the apparatus 44 through 54 can be employed
and used essentially at the sight where naturally-occurring
fuel source 42 is located, all the necessary electromagnetic
radiation 20 is generated essentially at the same location
as fuel source 42. This provides for a maximum amount of
usable electromagnetic radiation 20 since there are no
significant storage or transportation losses to be incurred.
In other words, the apparatus is brought to the sight of the
fuel source where desirable field line 11 intersects the
earth's surface 40 on or near the geographical location of
fuel source 42, fuel source 42 being at a desirable magnetic
latitude for the practice of this invention, for example,
Alaska.
The generation of electricity by motion of a conducting
fluid through a magnetic field, i.e., magnetohydrodynamics (MHD),
provides a method of electric power generation without
moving mechanical parts and when the conducting fluid is a
plasma formed by combustion of a fuel such as natural gas,
an idealized combination of apparatus is realized since the
very clean-burning natural gas forms the conducting plasma
in an efficient manner and the thus formed plasma, when
passed through a magnetic field, generates electricity in a
very efficient manner. Thus, the use of fuel source 42 to
generate a plasma by combustion thereof for the generation
of electricity essentially at the site of occurrence of the
fuel source is unique and ideal when high power levels are
required and desirable field lines 11 intersect the earth's
surface 40 at or near the site of fuel source 42. A
particular advantage for MHD generators is that they can be
made to generate large amounts of power with a small volume,
light weight device. For example, a 1000 megawatt MHD
generator can be construed using superconducting magnets to
weigh roughly 42,000 pounds and can be readily air lifted.
This invention has a phenomenal variety of possible
ramifications and potential future developments. As alluded
to earlier, missile or aircraft destruction, deflection, or
confusion could result, particularly when relativistic
particles are employed. Also, large regions of the
atmosphere could be lifted to an unexpectedly high altitude
so that missiles encounter unexpected and unplanned drag
forces with resultant destruction or deflection of same.
Weather modification is possible by, for example, altering
upper atmosphere wind patterns or altering solar absorption
patterns by constructing one or more plumes of atmospheric
particles which will act as a lens or focusing device. Also
as alluded to earlier, molecular modifications of the
atmosphere can take place so that positive environmental
effects can be achieved. Besides actually changing the
molecular composition of an atmospheric region, a particular
molecule or molecules can be chosen for increased presence.
For example, ozone, nitrogen, etc. concentrations in the
atmosphere could be artificially increased. Similarly,
environmental enhancement could be achieved by causing the
breakup of various chemical entities such as carbon dioxide,
carbon monoxide, nitrous oxides, and the like.
Transportation of entities can also be realized when
advantage is taken of the drag effects caused by regions of
the atmosphere moving up along diverging field lines. Small
micron sized particles can be then transported, and, under
certain circumstances and with the availability of
sufficient energy, larger particles or objects could be
similarly affected. Particles with desired characteristics
such as tackiness, reflectivity, absorptivity, etc., can be
transported for specific purposes or effects. For example, a
plume of tacky particles could be established to increase
the drag on a missile or satellite passing therethrough.
Even plumes of plasma having substantially less charged
particle density than described above will produce drag
effects on missiles which will affect a lightweight (dummy)
missile in a manner substantially different than a heavy
(live) missile and this affect can be used to distinguish
between the two types of missiles. A moving plume could also
serve as a means for supplying a space station or for
focusing vast amount of sunlight on selected portions of the
earth. Surveys of global scope could also be realized
because the earth's natural magnetic field could be
significantly altered in a controlled manner by plasma beta
effects resulting in, for example, improved magnetotelluric
surveys. Electromagnetic pulse defenses are also possible.
The earth's magnetic field could be decreased or disrupted
at appropriate altitudes to modify or eliminate the magnetic
field in high Compton electron generation (e.g., from high
altitude nuclear bursts) regions. High intensity, well
controlled electrical fields can be provided in selected
locations for various purposes. For example, the plasma
sheath surrounding a missile or satellite could be used as a
trigger for activating such a high intensity field to
destroy the missile or satellite. Further, irregularities
can be created in the ionosphere which will interfere with
the normal operation of various types of radar, e.g.,
synthetic aperture radar. The present invention can also be
used to create artificial belts of trapped particles which
in turn can be studied to determine the stability of such
parties. Still further, plumes in accordance with the
present invention can be formed to simulate and/or perform
the same functions as performed by the detonation of a
"heave" type nuclear device without actually having to
detonate such a device. Thus it can be seen that the
ramifications are numerous, far-reaching, and exceedingly
varied in usefulness.
There's more reading in the patent office files, under just
Eastlund:
| |
PAT. NO. |
|
Title |
| 1 |
6,870,498 |
 |
Generation of electromagnetic radiation |
| 2 |
6,758,443 |
|
Method for observing and stabilizing electrodynamic
tethers |
| 3 |
6,755,377 |
|
Apparatus for observing and stabilizing electrodynamic
tethers |
| 4 |
6,431,497 |
|
Failure resistant multiline tether |
| 5 |
6,386,484 |
|
Failure resistant multiline tether |
| 6 |
6,290,186 |
|
Planar hoytether failure resistant multiline tether
|
| 7 |
6,286,788 |
|
Alternate interconnection hoytether failure resistant
multiline tether |
| 8 |
6,260,807 |
|
Failure resistant multiline tether |
| 9 |
6,173,922 |
|
Failure resistant multiline tether |
| 10 |
5,747,720 |
|
Tactical laser weapon system for handling munitions
|
| 11 |
5,286,979 |
|
Process for absorbing ultraviolet radiation using
dispersed melanin |
| 12 |
5,041,834 |
|
Artificial ionospheric mirror composed of a plasma layer
which can be tilted |
| 13 |
4,999,637 |
|
Creation of artificial ionization clouds above the earth
|
| 14 |
4,839,581 |
|
Absolute electrical potential measuring apparatus and
method |
| 15 |
4,817,495 |
|
Defense system for discriminating between objects in
space |
| 16 |
4,686,605 |
|
Method and apparatus for altering a region in the
earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and/or magnetosphere
|
The other questions you might want to ask are, what other
patents are there, held behind the cloak of "national security"
are there, and just how much of this Tesla stuff got into the
military's hands. While Scott Stevens goes on his
quest....we have just one question.
Does the increase in California quakes have anything to
do with HAARP?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
You know what our answer will be if we get a "big one" in the
next week or two. OK...nap time. I'll write this week's
Peoplenomics tomorrow.
Friday
About that
Rain Dance
Today's lesson from
the Universe has to do with droughts, shrimp farming, and how
more change than desired can beset humans. Our coverage of
Hurricane Rita is today also
an adventure in yak shaving.
We start with two
interesting facts. First, as of this morning, the rainfall
for our part of Northeast Texas has been near drought. Oh,
sure it rained a while back, but it was by Texas standards no
gully washer. At the Weather Underground Almanac,
we see that we're about 9.78 inches of rain less than normal for
the year. There are warnings about open fires and a
burn ban in effect. Datum #1.
Datum #2 is that my
neighbor who has a fine and efficient farming operation decided
some months back to put in a shrimp rearing operation. He
had the local pond construction folks out, who dutifully
measured and soil tested and concluded the ideal spot for such a
new enterprise and they proceeded to build a fine shrimp rearing
pond. The only trouble was that until tomorrow, there has
been a near total dearth of rain. The "pond" has looked
more like a one acre mini Dust Bowl.
Now, says the
National Weather Service
forecast office, that's likely to change with some areas of
NE Texas expected to get up to 25 inches of rain as Rita
arrives - and unfortunately for folks who haven't had the
foresight to dig in a new shrimp pond - a few trillion gallons
of water are likely to end the local drought. In a perfect
"ain't it funny how..." way, I'm half expecting Universe
to provide about 9.78 inches of rain to bring us back to less
than one standard deviation from historical means.
The maximum sustained
winds at our place, which looks to sit under the eye for a
while, should be no more than 36 mph. Even with gusts to 50, the
odds of bringing a tree down on top of my office building are
small, but then again, we also expect tornados to be spawned by
the storm, so no telling what the weekend will bring.
Tonight at about 10
Pacific you might want to
click over to
Richard Hoagland's site where there's a chance that he'll be
posting some of the scalar weather patterns that have been
captured in Rita images from space - we've already picked out a
few from normal channels ourselves. Look at Scott Stevens scalar
hurricane page at
http://weatherwars.info/katrina.htm too. Great backgrounder.
And, looking ahead,
if you think Rita was bad, look at the storm forming right now
in the Atlantic in this animated loop.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Meantime, if I get
wind of my neighbors doing any more rain dancing, I've
authorized Panama to use deadly force on any snakes he spies in
the area.
Snakes are a key to Hopi rain dances, if you didn't know.
Hell, I'm originally from Seattle and lived on a sailboat for 10
years. "A what dance?" "And you use a snake?"
Natural Gas
Concerns
We are seeing that
with the latest track of the storm, the price of
oil has come
down a bit and the price of natural gas has gone up a bit.
Whether Rita declines to a Cat 3 before making landfall
and regional refining and gas routing/pumping operations will
determine how prices go next week. If the storm doesn't
take out refining capacity for longer than restart time, things
may return to normal (at
least as normal as things can be in a city facing a 20 foot
storm surge) by next week or the week after.
Gas Worries
I received a rather
detailed note from a reader yesterday saying that I was being
alarmist in my warnings about oil and gas pricing. I
notice this morning that another alarmist is
Jeb Bush. I've also sent the email to my friends who
evacuated their platforms in the Gulf - because the source of my
concern is the industry insiders.
Check out the API graphics. Sure, we may end up with
energy in the ground, but if it's shut in, who cares? Most
Americans would end up cold, parked, and in the dark. If you're
out of gas and you can't get it (or if you have to pay $6 a
gallon) the semantics and statistics are BS.
Has Tom Flocco
Broken the Story of the Year?
First the story:
Tom Flocco's site
alleges that
9-11 crash victim Barbara Olson has been arrested in Europe with
a whole bunch of money and a Vatican passport. Now,
here's the problem: No confirmation of this anywhere else.
So one of two things will now take place: Either there
will be some confirmation of the alleged events or we'll have to
take Flocco off our list of credible sources...
IF true, this would
blow open the whole 9-11 affair, which was either a horrific act
of terrorism or a mind-boggling conspiracy by the nation's elite
for dark and insidious purposes - depending on who you talk to.
At a minimum, if the Flocco story is confirmed it would mean the
Pentagon "crash" which is already widely questioned because the
impact was supposedly too small for the size jet alleged, would
blow open and that would call all the other events of that day
into question. We're watching for confirmation from some
independent source.
As a reader in
Germany noted: "In the article is stated that Olson was
arrested ....on the Polish-Austrian border .... Problem is,
there is no border between Poland and Austria." Yeah, the
Czech Republic and Slovakia do get in the way a bit, don't
they...
And a USA reader
observes: "According to the Flocco report: "The alleged 9.11
Pentagon crash victim was found to be in possession of millions
in fake interbank Italian lyra currency..." The Italian currency
is the Euro (since 1999) - the old Italian currency was the
LIRA.. there is/was NO such currency as the LYRA."
Summer Shakes
Yes,
I saw there was a 4.7 near the Grape Vine yesterday.
The big ones are coming, say the web bots. Just be ready
if you live in SoCal. Then ask me about the economy...
Cost of
Reporting
A former ABC News
correspondent is
asking
for $4.2 million in lost wages, etc. because he didn't want to
go to Iraq on assignment. The reporter involved has kids
growing up - which could make this a tough case for ABC, as I
see it...
Borderline
Science
I remember the
cartoons from when I was a kid (about a century ago, it seems).
One of the lines occasionally used was "Are you a Man or a
Mouse?" Today, on the frontiers of genetic engineering the
question is not at all funny -
do experiments mixing mice and men push the envelope too far?
Reader Advice
Here's a note from a
reader which you might find interesting:
"George, I love
your sight and your insight. I have recommended it to all
that inhabit my little circle. My question is - can you tell
me of a good dealer for the purchase of silver bullion? I
live in the Florida panhandle and don't quite know where to
look besides KITCO, and even those options are a bit
confusing."
We've been very happy
with both Kitco and
California
Numismatics. Ken Edwards was highly recommended). What
I have found with either firm is that you get in your head what
you want to buy, have a credit card ready to secure the price
and then as soon as they tell you how much money to send, you
FedEx them a bank draft. Costs of shipping aren't cheap,
so if you can buy locally at Kitco or California Numismatics
prices fine. If not, we have found both firms extremely helpful.
But don't call to talk theory. If you want that, hit
www.gata.org and some of the
other sites that focus on the coming inflationary depression as
the government prints money like crazy to fend off bankruptcy
from Katrina, Rita, Iraq, and whatever it is coming in November.
Death Sport
We noticed the
passing of another boxer from injuries sustained in a Las Vegas
fight. At what point do we, as humans, admit to a sick
fascination with death sports? Why, if I was a Hollywood
producer, I'd be tempted to build a new reality TV show to be
shot exclusively in the ER's of hospitals and in hospices.
It's be called "Final Moments" and you could watch perhaps
10-people die in each half hour episode. Sick? No in
this country: Why do people go to car races, bull fights, or
boxing matches? Even football is ritualized warfare...as
you might have guessed, I don't read the sports page much. Kill
a man on the street and it's murder. Kill him in front of
a paying audience and it's "sport". Thanks, but no thanks.
If you want to watch the PPV, it's your karmic burden...
Peoplenomics
and Judge Roberts
With the Senate
Judiciary Committee clearing Judge Roberts nomination yesterday,
Elaine and I have concluded how to fix America's screwed up
political duopoly. It's peaceful, legal, and is so simple
that you won't believe it. Anyway, check our
www.peoplenomics.com
site this weekend for details.
Are you CRAZY?
If the answer is
"Yes!" then I'm sure your friends won't mind you sending them a
link to this site.
Click here to do it now. We need more crazy people
who can ask rational questions in an irrational world.
Book Store
Goodies
Hey! Our server
bills are getting outa hand. Go to our
www.peoplenomics.com/bookstore.htm site and buy one of
our ebooks! Thank you!
Peoplenomics.com:
Is the
Weimar in Sight?
This week's report
focuses on the trillion dollar question: Will the economy
break toward inflation or deflation? As a starting point,
we'll take the price of gold (see numbers above) as an indicator
and throw in Katrina's impacts. (subscription
information)
Tell a Friend
If you enjoy this
"one-man-economic-newspaper" please tell all your friends.
The more, the merrier...
Click here to send them a link.
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Advertise on UrbanSurvival! Your Ad Here
Thursday
Natural Gas:
Expect Shortages
That's the short term
outlook from a knowledgeable reader who works in the natural gas
business in New Mexico:
"I'm a petroleum
engineer toiling away for my dad's small oil and gas
company. We produce approximately 7500 MCFPD and 100 BOPD
from 113 producing wells in SE Lea County, New Mexico
(approximately 80 miles due west of Midland, TX). We
received word last night that all of our production is going
to be shut-in due to the shut down of the Mont Belview
Natural Gas Liquids Complex because of Rita. I'm also sure
we're not the only operators in Lea County that are being
shut-in. It is quite apparent that Rita is also having an
impact on onshore production as well as GOM production.
Please feel free to share w/ your readers."
Here's our take on
things this morning: Because a lot of the electricity
across the American mid section and South is fired by natural
gas, we may see spot electrical outages if the gas
operations are shut in for very long. Therefore, you might
want to today - like right this minute - make sure you have a
plan to get whatever you need in the way of preparedness
supplies. This might mean candles, a couple of oil lamps
and some oil - that kind of thing plus lots of batteries for the
flashlights and radios so you can keep up on events.
We are not
predicting massive power outages, but it's a contingence
to be considered at this time, so a little advance work now
may pay off huge dividends in comfort and peace of mind later
on. Remember, about 3-million of your countrymen from
Houston and new Orleans will testify that there is no
substitute for being prepared for anything. What price peace
of mind?
Markets:
Crash
Window Opens
So there I was, just
getting off the evening conference call with my friend Cliff of
www.halfpasthuman.com
and we were speculating on the possibilities of what the Big
Event will be between September 26 and October 3-5th. I
suggested that it might be a market crash, but Cliff still leans
toward something else - yet to be revealed, perhaps another
hurricane behind Rita - while the November 21st window in the
linguistic scans looks mighty ugly for California in general and
around earthquakes in particular. Still, even with Houston
emptying out, we're less than half way to the emotive values
that will arrive by the first half of December. Something
this way wicked is coming, predicts the linguistic shift
software.
With this cheerful
mindset (not), I decided to call Robin Landry, an ex-Merrill,
ex-Stifel-Nicolas VP who had the good sense about 1994 to
set up shop in Shawnee Oklahoma, which in case it hasn't
registered with you, is in a bit of a tornado area, but he lives
in a single level home and it's not a mobile, which seem
to attract all the tornadoes in a region.
My first question for
Landry was, with the market down under 10,400 at the close on
Wednesday, how soon does the ultimate disaster - a second coming
of 1929 Crash take place?
"I have been
monitoring the wave structure on the 15-minute chart and
watching the count and it's following, with clocklike
precision, the Elliott Wave structure, We are due for
a few small rallies in wave 4's to complete the Fourth Wave
on this decline and then the 5th wave down to complete the
first wave down of the Third Wave."
For those not
familiar with Elliott theory, what the heck does that mean?
"It means that
after a small rally in another decline to the approximate
1180 on the S&P 500 and the 10,200 of the Dow, then there
will be a larger rally that will last a day or two.
Then all hell breaks loose."
When you say "all
hell" what does that mean in terms of the numbers?
"If my wave
count is correct, when we break through the 1190-1200 area
of the S&P, the uptrend line from the lows of April of this
year, which were down around 1136 on the SP, at that point,
the odds of this just being a corrective before the rally
goes higher, the odds go over 50 percent and we jump up to
70% chance.
What that
means at a minimum is that we will visit the 7,100 area of
the October 2002."
Fine, but what's the
real downside over the next year - with all the infrastructure
damage, turning off oil, the shut-in gas, and millions of
refugees plus the popping of housing and soaring unemployment -
what is the possible downside once the whole derivatives house
of cards begins to unwind because of massive defaults that will
follow these natural disasters that were unforeseen as coming in
two's and three's and four's when derivatives were drafted?
"In our past
conversations I have mentioned to you many times that there
was no question in my mind that we would visit 6,400 - no
question. The next target below that is 5,000 and then
below that I have a target at the 3,600 area.
The problem in
the counts is how fast these events will happen. The
targets, you might say, are pretty well established with the
wave structures of the past - the things
Gary Lammert talks about - but the wave structure is
very clear when it breaks the 1190 and then the 1136 level.
In the Dow, a
break below 10,000 is dangerous - after that there is no
strong support until you reach the low of October of last
year (9,700) but I believe that support will be very very
easily broken because the trend line from that low up
through the low of April at 10,000 drawn up through today
shows it broke down yesterday.
Remember the
rally from the 7,100 level in October 2002 went up and then
tested that area around 7,400 in March of 2003. From
March 2003 to February of 2004, that rally was strong and
continuous. There are no stopping points along the
way. You get a little bit of support from the bounce
at up to 9,000, but looking at the wave structure, I believe
the 9,000 is hardly worth thinking about because it was a
short two day kind of thing on the way up. In short,
you can't point to anything substantial and say "Ah, that's
support..."
Well, if I put a
dollar on the table today, regardless of what the market does in
today's session, do you think the Dow will be above say 9,000 by
the end of this year?
"No."
How about 8,000?
"Possibly"
Could it be as low as
say 6,400 by New Years?
"That is
entirely possible. You have to remember, in the wave
structure count, a third wave decline (c). A third
wave down (or up) is the longest and strongest. That
doesn't mean the most time, it usually means the distance
traveled is the longest. And the third wave is when
people begin to realize that the direction of the
market is going to be there for a good long while. We
call what's on the horizon the "point of recognition" -
which is where even the novices "get it" that the market is
going down for a long time. Then you see the momentum
swell and the selling goes through the roof and you won't be
able to get out fast enough. The market will open down
so fast that you won't be able to get out. Sure, we'll
get sharp rallies, because that will complete the wave
structure in the decline.
I believe the
most likely time period for us to reach the 7,100 area or
below is by October-November of 2006, but it's entirely
possible that if you have a crash on the order of the ones
in 1929 or the A wave down after the 2000 top, being a third
wave now, these could could be a Fibonacci 1.618 times the
size of those.
George the
first one was from the top about 5/18 /2001at 11,350 and
from there down to the 8,100 area on 9/21/2001. In
five months, the market fell almost 5,000 points! The
second crash came after the rebound off that which peaked
around the week of 3/22/2002 at 10,676. Then the
market fell to the intraday low of the 7,100 area on
10/11/2002. So here we had a period of not quite seven
months. But here again, the decline was a little
larger."
So if everyone saw
this at once, and throw in a major California quake and a couple
of more big hurricane hits, just to really push it over the top
- and maybe a defeat of some size in Iraq, what does the 1.618
decline from what top look like.
"If you were
to take that, I believe the next 5,000 points on the Dow
could come off in short order. How fast that happens
is a question mark. But I do believe that at the point
of recognition (which we're coming to) we will have a one
day decline of a thousand points.
Before they can get
the market shut?
"Unless they
turn it down in the middle of the day.. You remember
last time, all the sell orders were in, and that's what
would happen again here. If we have in the decline of
the A wave, several declines of 500-600 points in a day,
then a thousand point decline in wave 3 (that 1.618) would
make sense.
Robin Landry's email
is rlandry@charter.net
and his office number is (405) 275-6162. Don't call him
just to chit chat - he's busy - business is different. In the interest
of total disclosure, last time we had dinner in San Diego,
4-years ago, he bought. It's my turn when we get together
next, hopefully later this year. We'll continue, as we
have in the past, hoping for the best, but planning for the
worst, guided by the old saying "People don't plan to fail, but
they often fail to plan..." Particularly poignant advice
given that in Northeast Texas...
Here Comes
Rita
We are sad to report
this morning that if it stays on its present track, Hurricane
Rita will hit our ranch in Texas. We have sent Panama
Bates a long list of items - but the two that are worth passing
along to our neighbors are: a) we have asked him to take his
camera and make a complete photo-record of the "before"
condition of the spread. This means pictures of all the
buildings and their contents. Next, he will burn two CD's
and keep the originals on his hard drive. One copy will go
into my office building and the other CD will go to the trunk of
the car. The second point is he'll be making copies of
insurance papers and such so we will have backups in p[latic and
ready for anything.
![[Image of 3-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](085837W_sm.gif)
This morning,
the track looks more like it will go right up the Houston Ship
Channel - and if it stays on course, it will cause
tremendous problems for greater Houston:
The good news is that
the storm may decrease to a Category 3 but Cat 4 is more
likely by the time it reaches the coastline on Saturday.
But we're figuring on Cat 4 with 35 -40 MPH winds at the ranch
with maybe gusts to 50-ish even 200-miles inland at our ranch.
Point your browser to
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for updates as they are issued.
Our story from Monday
about
oil impacts has gone mainstream.
EU: Grow or
Whither
Anyone who knows
2-bits worth of history understands that capitalistic systems
work best when there are either huge problems and destruction,
or when resources are plentiful. That's about the
opposite of what's happening in Euro and now,
a few folks in the EU are starting to "get the picture."
The nubbins of the issue is that if an economic system is not
growing at least as fast as the prevailing rates of interest,
the standard of living tends to fall. While this isn't
something the EU wants, remember that last time we checked,
there is no free lunch.
Time and Flu
Good article from the Asia Times online edition about how
health authorities are racing against time trying to contain the
bird flue epidemic in Indonesia which has pandemic potential.
Hats off to
JetBlue
Next time I go
somewhere in an air machine, JetBlue will be at the top of my
list of preferred carriers based on the
outstanding landing made yesterday at LAX by a JetBlue plane
with a busted nose gear. We hear a lot about disasters when
they happen, so it's cool to be able to report that yes, good
training and perfect execution landed Canyon Blue's 146 souls.
RFO to the front end crew. (Right *******
On, if you're not immersed chat lingo.)
Airlines:
Rogue Sector
While JetBlue is good
news, there's bad - and it's all about the environmental impact
of jet travel. You might recall earlier this week that I
mentioned how international jet travel poses a huge risk of
spread pandemics in a matter of hours to everyplace on earth.
But beyond this, a group of scientists is now claiming that
jet travel puts out as much pollution as cars and should be
scaled down. Of course terrorism and market conditions
are already cutting into airline operations.
More.
Still more.
Republican Kah
Kah
Looks like the
expanding probe of lobbyist Jack Abramoff could sweep more
Replublican heavies into the muck that's being stirred.
Something to remember when voting time comes around. Watch
the spinsters putting in double time on this one. Too
late, we expect. Plus, as if that's not enough, there are
rumors that grand juries in places other than Chicago are now
looking at mal/misfeasance in high places politically.
Houston:
Correspondents Check In:
From our Houston
Bureau:
Today, the most common question is, "You buggin' out?"
I'm still determined to ride it out. However, a good chunk
of the family is leaving. I have a hotel room in Llano, just
in case, they say.
All of the schools have closed and many businesses are
closing tonight for the rest of the week. Many companies
have also stated that they will not allow cars to be parked
in their garages. A liability thing, I suppose.
The freeways are packed going north and west, and have
been since early this morning. I went to WalMart up the
street at lunch, and everything water, battery or camping
gear is GONE. The shelves are bare. Entire sections of store
are wastelands. I watched the last camp stove walk out the
door. The battery displays are devastated. I noticed walking
around that there were little displays all over the store
(basically, anywhere items are sold that need batteries).
Each one of them was completely empty. There is not a store
I can find with any bottled water.
Around the corner from me is one of the few family
grocery stores left. It was packed last night with folks who
couldn't find items they needed up the street at HEB,
WalMart or Kroger. Ice is a biggie. Booze stores are doing
land-office business, as well. Everyone seems to be doing
hurricanes or 'ritas. Stole my idea. Should have trademarked
it (http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/0920051katrina1.html
).
It's astounding to me how many folks here have never been
through a hurricane. Obviously, they think that New Orleans
was destroyed by the hurricane. Actually, the town did
pretty well through the storm. It was the levee breaks that
destroyed it. This will be number 7 for me. I'm not too
worried. I was six months old in my last Cat5, and I lived
to not remember it! If the storm continues to move as fast
as it is, then it will cause minimal damage because it won't
drop a lot of water or wind in one spot. But, if it stalls
just offshore, like Ophelia, then we are all doomed here.
I'll try to keep regular updates going during the storm.
As soon as the winds die down, I'll get out get you some of
the first photos of the area.
In the meantime, legislators must have been packing, too.
It seems that they found their cajones in the process:
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8COP5F81.html.
I think this shows a real fear over jobs, or lack thereof,
due to refugees and soon-to-be destruction. Of course, just
when you need an army of low-cost labor, they decide to cut
off the supply. ;->
Dow Dropping
Our pal the Economic
Fractalist checks in with his take on the market which dropped
103 today:
George, in order to qualify as a science, a potential new
field must have the quality of prospective predictability.
In the 8 August posting in the Economic Fractalist(EF), a
prediction that the secondary top (relative to March 2000)
for the most heavily weighted world equity index, the
Wilshire 5000, was probably in. It apparently was. Other
smaller US indices and many of the Euro-Asian indices have
made higher highs since 3 August. The latter highs of the
Euro-Asian markets most likely reflects the summation
macroeconomic effect off a much stronger cash reserve and
savings position of their respective country citizen
consumers.
From the 11 August EF posting, the Wilshire's final daily
fractal growth sequence to its secondary 3 August peak was
identified as 6/15/10 with a 6/15/15 fractal sequence
completing the whole 3 phase up and 1 phase down fractal
cycle. Fractals, just like the underlying macroeconomic
system they precisely reflect, are exquisitely efficient.
The first daily decay fractal was predicted to be found in
last daily fractal growth sequence containing the Wilshire
peak. The numerical possibilities of this first base decay
cycle ranged from 10-15 days. An 11 day base with an ideal
x/2.5x/2x/1.5x pattern was initially identified as the high
probability correct decay sequence. This elegantly matched
the 11 day base of the primary 1929 devolution.
However, recent trading valuations have proven this
supposition base number to be incorrect. The expected second
fractal of such a 11 day base sequence of 27-28 days would
have had an underlying slope from the first to last day that
would have included all valuations of the second fractal.
This clearly did not occur, although a short term low was
made on an intraday level on day 28. This disqualifies the
11 day base supposition.
Fractals by their nature have recurrent similar near
quantum growth and decay patterns with different time unit
bases. For instance, the daily growth pattern beginning in
August 2004 was x/2.5x/2.5x, roughly 9/23/22 days. The last
portion of this growth cycle was 2.5x and suggests the
complex macroeconomic system would produce a beginning decay
fractal of likewise a 2.5x length -but with the different
daily fractal base which included the Wilshire's peak. The
daily first fracatl base leading to the peak was actually
slightly less than 6 days with averaged sequence of
6minus/14plus/14plus conforming to a x/2.5x/2.5x fractal. By
this proportional fractal reckoning, the initial decay daily
base is, therefore, slightly longer than 14 days.
With a first decay base of slightly more than 14 days (x)
the expected length of the second decay fractal is 2.5x or
35-36 days. This means that on Monday 26 September 2005 or
on perhaps an intraday level on Tuesday 27 September, the
Wilshire will make a significant low with a slope line below
all valuations for the inclusive 35-36 days composing the
second decay fractal. After this a substantial rebound of
10-14 days should occur before the final total third decay
fractal of 1.6-2.5x, using the 14 day base, is made. This
final drop should contain the large nonlinear devaluation
that will possibly characterize the fall of 2005 as 1929's
equivalent. This is not meant to be investment advise, but
rather an attempt to prospectively confirm a testable
hypothesis and suggest fractal analysis may be a new science
that can reasonably quantify the complex macroeconomic
system.
The coincidental fractal timing for Monday's (or
Tuesday's on an intraday level) intermediate low (at the end
of the second decay fractal) comes after Rita's landfall
over the weekend. Any post hoc ergo propter hoc logic used
to explain a devaluation should be compared with Katrina's
nearly absent effect on the Wilshire, whose valuation timing
was at the bottom of its fractal cycle during the
Mississippi landfall and moved up .6 percent that day. Gary
Lammert
http://www.economicfractalist.com/
I've got a 6 PM conference call scheduled with Robin Landry,
and I expect to have some comments from him tomorrow, but from a
short conversation this morning, I can tell you that we're
getting dangerously close to one of our sell signals.
Look for a subscriber note at
www.peoplenomics.com
when the line in the sand is crossed.. We don't expect the
ascending triangle in our Aggregate Index to end well, but more
on that in the morning.
Will Rita Do
Crawford?
Will Rita hit a Nuke Plant?
We've been tinkering
with the latest maps off the National Weather Service site and
plugging them into Microsoft Streets & Trips (don't leave home
without it!) and find that the storm track will take hurricane
Rita perilously close to the Bush compound at Crawford, Texas,
which if you're not up on your geography of the Republic (of
Texas) is 17 miles West-Southwest of Waco.
And just to add to
the fun of Rita-watching, wait till the national media figure
out that there's a nuclear power plant at the current projected
landfall! The South Texas
Project is in Wadsworth, Texas!
"The South Texas Project (STP) is one of the newest and
most productive nuclear power plants nationwide. The
twin-reactor facility produces 2,500 megawatts of
electricity, enough to serve more than one million homes in
Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio and surrounding
areas in south central Texas.
STP is located on a 12,220-acre site in Matagorda County,
between Bay City and Palacios. The plant is managed by the
STP Nuclear Operating Company and employs about 1,200
full-time personnel.
The facility's owners proportionately share the
electricity it produces:
Austin Energy, 16 percent CPS Energy, 40 percent Texas
Genco LLC, 44 percent "
So I asked: "With Hurricane Rita expected now to come ashore
near your plant, what were the maximum wind speeds the plant was
designed for? Thanks - readers are wondering...
Spokesperson Sheila Ormand reassures us, "In excess of
300 mph. We'll be fine!" Which means if there are power lines
up, there will be something to put on them...
We're watching the
track - it could be close!
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](084857W_sm.gif)
At our ranch,
we're only expecting 30-40 mile per hour winds as the latest for
our neighborhood shows:
Hurricane Rita is
expected to make land-fall along the middle Texas Gulf Coast
prior to sunrise on Saturday. The storm... already a
major hurricane... is expected to increase in intensity to a
category 5 storm over the Gulf waters... with some decrease
to a category 4 storm just prior to landfall early Saturday.
The latest track from the National Hurricane Center would
bring the dissipating storm north to near Waco Saturday
night and then into central Oklahoma... east of Oklahoma
City... Sunday night.
Should the current track of the hurricane verify... the
following effects will be possible... if not likely across
North Texas.
1. 40 to 60 mph sustained winds... with higher gusts...
south of a line from Lampasas... to Waco and Centerville.
These are tropical storm strength winds... and even severe
storm winds once you reach 58 mph. Thus... some localized
damage from wind would likely occur. Small and lightweight
outdoor objects should be secured. Winds should taper off to
20 to 40 mph further north on Sunday... but this will be
dependant upon the strength and speed of the system once it
makes landfall.
2. Heavy rainfall and flooding. 3 to 5 inches... with
locally higher amounts will be possible mainly along and
east of the I-35 corridor. Much of East Texas... especially
the northeast... has been in drought conditions for most of
the Summer and this rain would be very beneficial.
However... depending upon the speed of the system... too
much rain may fall in too short a time to allow soils to
soak up the rainfall. Thus... some flooding may result. A
Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed for this weekend.
3. A few tornadoes.
4. Increased traffic on inter-states as people evacuate
from the hurricane. Wet roads... heavy rainfall and
increased traffic could lead to delays and accidents. Allow
extra time to reach your travel destinations this weekend.
5. Some airline delays will be possible. Again... allow
extra time to reach your destinations this weekend.
Dissipating hurricanes have moved across North Texas many
times in the past... typically with some wind damage and
flooding. Residents and those planning travel across North
Texas this weekend should be prepared for this system and
stay tuned to the latest weather information as we move
closer to the weekend.
The Waco-Lampasas
line means it's possible that there will be just a mess of rain
around Round Rock (Dell's home) and with likely some issues in
the Austin area.
But now, let's get to
the core issue for the rest of the country: How will
refineries do? This morning we read in the
Houston Chronicle that the locals are getting ready as best they
can, considering that 13% of the nation's refining goes on in
the Houston area.
Something you might
want to read, offered by
oilman2@urbansurvival.com is "What if...They tell you to
evacuate ?" article at our companion site,
www.independencejournal.com (top of left column). Our
Gulf of Mexico oil fri3ends are hip deep in evacuation
operations today.
Indian Storm
It's not like the
U.S. has been singled out for punishment by ma Nature. In
India, and Bangladesh, nearly
1,000 are missing and 100,000 homeless in South Asia's version
of Katrina.
Here Comes
Bird Flu
You know I have
nothing against airlines - hell, I was an airline V.P. for
heaven's sake. But at some point, airlines can (and do)
pose a serious risk to the public health. Take for example
airlines flying in and out of Indonesia.
We have today a report that Indonesia's capital, Jakarta, may
have (to borrow a term) a hot zone for bird flu.
So ask yourself, at what point will international health
authorities put the hammer down on international air travel as
pandemics begin to rage?
Gas War?
China and Japan are sort of getting eye-to-eye over Chinese gas
drilling operations in disputed waters of the East China
Sea. Not more than a diplomatic tempest at this point, but
as you may have noticed in the Middle East, energy is power and
worth grabbing guns over. Doubly so if you drive an SUV...
Different Kind
of Protest
As we were chatting
about the latest quirks in the web bot date, Cliff over at
www.halfpasthuman.com
(which doesn't call it a time machine, but which operates
sophisticated internet technology that seems to capture
emotional impacts of major news events as much as 9-months
before the pop into reality) observed something interesting
about the anti-wat protests around Iraq and Afghanistan.
His comment was that the flavor of protest is much
different than Vietnam. Back 'in the day' it was young
people being loud and boisterous.
Today,
according to recent articles picked up in scanning, it's more a
mothers and relatives kind of protest.
Meantime, we're
watching
the big anti-war protests planned for this weekend in Washington
which are being held legally with a permit because the
bumblecrats didn't get the word from you know where that
such things are not permissible anymore. Two points.
first, we're noticing the almost complete blackout on coverage
of this by mainstream corporate media (I know, shock and awe...)
and we hope there's no Kent State kind of fallout.
Bet me that you-know
who will be out of town this weekend so as not to see what a
large portion of the public thinks...I expect Bush will be
somewhere other than the ranch (hurricane) or D.C. (protests)
this weekend busily thinking how to load the Supreme Court with
pliable/compliant picks. (You can go ahead add the 'r'
to that last word or the preceding sentence if you read
and understand the implications of the eminent domain decision
or remember how the mainstream media papered over the Scalia/Cheney
duck hunting adventure...)
Gotti Skates -
For Now
I would have thought
that given all the "Patriot Act" laws it would be easier than
ever for the government to box up alleged mobsters like John
Gotti.
But no, the Teflon Don as he's called has won a mistrial.
We expect the government will find other charges.
Whacking Jobs
500 being whacked at
the
New York Times. and Boston Globe. Other job grenades
going off:
1,700 whacked by Federated Stores. Siemens has a
layoff plan involving thousands, say reports.
Blue Screen of
Reorg?
Our attention has been brought to bear on Microsoft's
reorganization. The conventional reasoning is that it
has something to do with rivals and market share plus trying to
streamline decision-making. Our take on it is vastly
simpler. They need to find someone who can read a calendar
(maybe someone in the reorg will have this skill set).
Why? In case you haven't noticed, this is 2005 and 2006 is
almost here. The most recent versions of Office and
FrontPage blatantly announce "'2003". Also, I haven't
heard diddly about Longhorn forever. So, should I
reluctantly conclude that there's some kind of calendar virus up
in the software forest that has slipped through the firewall?
Site
Improvements
We spent some quality
time with software this weekend and as a result, we've cobbled
up a new look for our Exurban lifestyle site,
www.independencejournal.com. I will get another
article up later on this morning...but the new look is more
pleasing to our eye.
Comments
Also, we've added a
dandy book of tips on ways you may be able to decrease your risk
of Alzheimer's and other dementias. Click over to
www.peoplenomics.com/bookstore.htm for details.
Monday:
Rita Storm
Track
As of 5 PM Eastern,
the track will take Hurricane Rita 16 miles from Crawford, TX
and 90+ miles from our place. Coincidence? We don't
buy into the conspiracy/scalar weather theories, but if it were
to go, say 20 miles west of Crawford, such that Crawford would
get the Northeast quadrant as it passes, then yes, I guess I
would have to wonder a bit more about such speculations... A
colleague reports about 2' storm surge up the Intra Coastal
north of Boca Raton as Rita passed south...
Fed Ups a
Quarter
From the Federal
Reserve, this just in:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise
its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to
3-3/4 percent.
Output appeared poised to continue growing at a good pace
before the tragic toll of Hurricane Katrina. The widespread
devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation
of economic activity, and the boost to energy prices imply
that spending, production, and employment will be set back
in the near term. In addition to elevating premiums for some
energy products, the disruption to the production and
refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility.
While these unfortunate developments have increased
uncertainty about near-term economic performance, it is the
Committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent
threat. Rather, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with
robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing
ongoing support to economic activity. Higher energy and
other costs have the potential to add to inflation
pressures. However, core inflation has been relatively low
in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations
remain contained.
The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary
policy action, the upside and downside risks to the
attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability
should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation
expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy
accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be
measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes
in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to
maintain price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan
Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman;
Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher;
Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Anthony M. Santomero; and
Gary H. Stern. Voting against was Mark W. Olson, who
preferred no change in the federal funds rate target at this
meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously
approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to
4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the
requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal
Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond,
Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City.
Pick a
Disaster...ho hum....
I thought it would be
interesting this morning to just list a few of the pending world
disasters that are threatening to even further erode the Western
high consumption lifestyle that's been in trouble since the
stock market peaked in 2000 and since the mass layoffs started.
This is a smorgasbord of things to be watching:
There's not much you
can do about any of these directly just now, so have some coffee
and use the day to catch up on chores you've been postponing.
As the old Eastern story goes: "What was life like
before enlightenment?" Chop wood, carry water. "And
what is life like after enlightenment?" Chop wood,
carry water.
The Bankster's
Paradox
It's against the
background of the daily news that I happened across a new
initiative
by the World Bank, as explained in part by a bank press release
this week:
Accounting for
the actual value of natural resources, including resource
depletion and population growth, shows that net savings per
person are negative in the world's most impoverished
countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, according to
a new World Bank publication, Where is the Wealth of
Nations?, launched on the eve of the 2005 U.N. World Summit.
---
The publication
offers a ranking of countries according to total wealth,
with tables highlighting the 10 wealthiest and the 10
poorest countries (see Annex). Switzerland heads the list of
the top-ten performers, the other nine being European
countries, the United States, and Japan. Sub-Saharan Africa
dominates the bottom-10 list, with Ethiopia having the
lowest level of total wealth.
---
"Where is the
Wealth of Nations further substantiates the realization,"
said Steve McCormick, President and CEO, The Nature
Conservancy, "that if we can't get a handle on the
deconstruction of natural systems, then we will seriously
jeopardize our efforts to make lasting, substantial progress
on improving the standard of living of the world's poorest
people. Put simply, healthy ecosystems are the foundation of
healthy economies."
As we have alluded to
over at our
www.peoplenomics.com site, the problem for bankers is that
they mostly live in a world of just 14 items (10 digits and the
+,-,/,and * signs). The paradox is that in order to solve
the problems of sustainable development there will have to be
monetary values placed on things which don't lend themselves to
investment.
Take a migratory path
for salmon in the North Pacific. How do you capitalize
that? What's the value of leaving it alone and safe from
long liners and draggers from Japan, Russia, and Korea which
have happily raped the ocean's insides?
Ultimately, a
reasonable person concludes that our notions of banking are not
up to the task of living in harmony with the world as they are
presently constructed. But, despite the obvious, we
continue operating money based on debt (instead of debt-free
gold and silver) on the assumption that we're smarter than any
other humans ever.
Ignoring the
pyramids, which we couldn't build today, that's a fairly
egotistical assumption and one that seems to us to be at the
core of the banking paradox: How do we spend our way into
a better world? My suspicion is that more spending
is not likely to be the answer...but have fun!
Up Your
Rates(?)
It's with this
perspective on the corporatist drive to monetize everything*
including the environment on the one hand, and the reality of
Mother Nature on the other, that
the Fed sits today with a huge question: Do we hike rates
for the 11th meeting in a row? My hunch is that the price of
gold is signaling something - namely that the Fed will likely
take a pass today. That would set off a cascade of events
reflecting higher inflation to come and a lower dollar.
Yet, as we have
explained in some detail for subscribers this week, a quick bout
of inflation might be good in that it would mask the beginning
of the end of the Housing Bubble. Sure, the US dollar
might fall, hence gold's anticipation this week, but the bigger
specter in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and the unknown impacts
of soon-to-be 'cane Rita will give the central banksters time to
"run the clock" so Alan Greenspan can sneak up on retirement and
transition to Ben Bernanke's rule (he's the odds on favorite to
replace Al) which we expect to be decidedly inflationary because
deflation is oh, so much harder to manage.
Still, I have to
respect
long-time experts like Bill Gross of PIMCO who figures a quarter
point to 4% is coming... Expect indecision by the
markets until after the announcement. Still,
mortgage REIT dividends we think may be a clue.
*"Psst....wanna
buy
some air pollution credits?"
Passing
We note the
passing of noted Nazi hunter Simon Wiesenthal. In his
sleep at age 96. We sadly observe that despite his efforts, we
sense the seeds of Nazism/fascism are still virile and springing
to life under new names and labels designed to sound less
vicious, hidden under terms like Patriot Act and
national security. Then again, Lebensraum
didn't sound so bad at first, either. We need to ask
is
securing our energy future a reasonable mantra today?
On the surface, yes. But it's the logical extension of
concepts like this to beyond national borders where countries
get into trouble.
Monday
Urgent Update:
Oil Industry
Bracing Again
We won't reveal our
sources on this, but we have just received an email from a
source within the Gulf of Mexico Oil Industry that you need to
be aware of:
Planning evac for the eastern Gulf tomorrow……just
thought I’d give you a heads-up. That means production
shut-ins start tomorrow evening if the storm stays heading
westward, and even more evac next day if it strengthens.
This means gas will be running back up once again this week.
Your readers ought to gas up while it’s cheap if they see
the storm getting stronger and heading into the Gulf of
Mexico.
If it goes where they show on the predictive model, it
will be tearing through the edge of the OCS (outer
continental shelf), which is where all the deepwater stuff
is, and the northern side (strongest) will impact the fixed
platforms across the entire Gulf. If it makes landfall in
Texas, it will be going through the part of the Gulf where
natural gas production is more prevalent than oil. This may
impact the winter fuel costs, especially if we lose any of
these platforms.
It all depends on how strong it gets, and with Houston
temps scheduled for the upper nineties this week, it could
get a lot stronger than they predict. Remember, their
predictive model has a big basis in history, but with the
climate changing, the model could easily be wrong in a body
as shallow as the Gulf of Mexico. Shallow water tends to be
warmer, right?
More on Tropical Storm Rita below. But as a plan
ahead move, we might see gas up another 50 cents or so on this
one if things go badly...
Next Killer
'Cane?
It's presently
Tropical Storm Rita, but it is expected to turn into a hurricane
in the near future and with all the activity on the sun, plus a
shortage of rain and excessive heat in places like south Texas,
we wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane Rita form up to do
major damage along it's intended route:
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](084708W_sm.gif)
If it comes ashore
around Houston it will see like the hurricane is almost
following Katrina refugees around...
Gold Follows
Through
You may recall that
on Friday I mentioned to you on Friday that I mentioned how it
appeared that Gold was in the process of breaking out to new
highs. Well, this morning, those holding the Yellow Dog
and it's Gray Companion can do a little dance because it has
gone to $465 on the Kitco charts (above) and has been to $463 in
Europe.
Some of the press is starting to notice the increase too,
although I expect that the new gold rush is just barely getting
underway.
As I pointed out to
readers of our Peoplenomics site over the weekend, silver (as
the web bot project predicted) seems to be soaring even faster
than gold. At its peak (as we put bytes to phosphors this
morning) silver was up 2% on the day while the Yellow Dog
was up a miserly 1.3% so far in today's action. Again, the
web bot's timing was off, but we brought hundreds of ounces of
silver below $7 and ounce and advised you of our move at the
time. Still, there's
resistance
for silver at $7.62 which I reported at the time in early June.
I expect this time
will be a little different - with the Fed in a box about
interest rates as they meet this week - and inflationary worries
will carry both gold and silver to new highs. So enjoy the
ride in silver and if $7.62 is breached, who knows how high it
could go. As we reported in July, there are new
medical uses of silver showing up in products such as
silver-treated bandages. And just this weekend, I noted
that a new line of eye treatments for "computer eyes" is
preserved with silver sulphate which is far easier on us
allergic types than some of the old thimerosol (mercury-based)
preservatives.
Glowing
Progress
A couple of
countries are disavowing nuclear development today -
North Korea has finally said it will drop it's nuclear program.
That said, we're skeptical of anything coming from Pyong Yang.
And Iran's president
insists in Newsweek that his country is not interested in
developing nuclear weapons.
Campaigning
for Hillary or Distancing?
We noticed this morning that
Bill Clinton is turning on George Bush on subjects such as
Katrina aid, the Iraq War, and the federal budget.
While this may seem like politics as usual, and I might be
tempted to write it off as a little grand-standing for Hillary's
plan to move into the White House (God help us if that happens)
it could havea more prosaic motivator.
Remember, that federal grand jury in Chicago has a slug of
indictments supposedly aimed at the current and ex-presidents
club and Bill Clinton could just be distancing himself from
the Bush clan.
Confusion in
Germany
Voters in the
original Fatherland went to the polls on Sunday to supposedly
sort out the politics of the country,
but as we read it this morning in Der Spiegel, not much has
been sorted out - it still looks like a free-for-all among the
pols in the aftermath of the voting. Not that this will have
much impact on our economy...except later as the dollar tanks,
we will see Porsche, BMW and Mercedes used car prices firm and
perhaps go up. Remember, you can sometimes drive a high
end German luxury car in a US dollar inflationary (declining US
purchasing power) environment and essentially drive for free.
As the price of a new German car goes up, it drags up used car
prices as well. (How else could I be such a happy ex-911
driver? Bought a Porsche for $6,500 and drove it for
2 1/2 years and traded it in for $6,500. Amazingly useful
stuff, this inflation/devaluation if you catch it just so...)
Afghanistan voters
have turned out for parliamentary election,
but a low turn out and virtually no economic impacts unless you
are in the arms or heroin business.
Lord of War
If you're looking for
a reality-based movie to watch, go see Nicholas Cage in "Lord of
War". We saw it Sunday and it was pretty good - especially
the ending which makes the point that....Oh go spend the $20 or
whatever and see it yourself.
Iraq Mystery
We read the reports
this morning that
Shiite cleric Abu Zarqawi has died and wonder if this is truth
or just more disinformation being circulated by the
insurgency? As we've been reading the
web bot forecasts
about what is likely to happen in the future, based on
linguistic shifts, we have to ask if the "event" which is coming
around October 3 plus or minus a week, might be something ugly
in Iraq - time will tell.
Hydrogen
Hybrids?
A Canadian inventor
has come up with a dandy -
a system to inject small amounts of hydro into a conventional
internal combustion engine to dramatically increase combustion
efficiency. Now, while I admit to being a skeptic of
"big and ugly" hydrogen schemes (which are wet dreams of folks
who don't understand the concept of energy sinks) this proposal
looks on the surface like it makes sense because it doesn't
require a huge change of infrastructure and the hydrogen general
is small scale meaning that cars won't be driving around as
potential bombs. Looks to us like fine engineering...
Interest Rates
Up
We have seen a lot of discussion about interest rates, but I
think what the price of gold and silver is saying is that
regardless of the rate move, the US dollar is getting ready to
tank again, largely due to the increased debt levels ahead for
the buck in the wake of Bush War Two and the damage from
Katrina. Think of the ways that inflation would solve
problems - like mask a fall of the Dow and keep the housing
bubble from imploding and you'll see a way to muddle through the
current economic hard times, until confidence crumbles in a
month or so....which we expect after the October 3rd'ish event.
News from
Elliott Wave International
On to Our Charts!
Write when you get
rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
|
Saturday Sept.
24, 2005 14:50 PDT
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
