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October 8, 2004
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G. Lammert's Break Point Day
With the market down more than 100 Dow points on Thursday, the outcome of today's trading will likely all be blamed on the jobs number when released, but we think that will only the the proximate reason. From G. Lammert today:
"Friday 0447 AM
George, Break point.
For those who have read the piece on 'synchronization of contracting credit cycles since October 1998', please recall that in a series of credit cycles, the length of the second cycle is 2-2.5 times the first cycle. Yesterday was day 100(2.5X) with a 40-day (X) base. This is usually the limit of length of a second fractal. Review the dailies of the DJIA, NASDAQ, NYSE, et.al and you will see this pattern. The 2.5 times limit has to be viewed in relative terms because of where we are in the composite fractal picture of 83 weeks and the larger yearly fractal picture. Credit is optimally and perfectly invested in the macroeconomic system on an hourly, daily, weekly and monthly and yearly basis with credit saturation and contraction points. The fractals reveal the incredible efficiency in the macro credit system represented by the valuation patterns in the equity, bond, and commodity prices.
The price of oil and treasuries are following fractals that are determined by the amount of invested credit in those particular markets. Saturation and contraction points occur similarly in these markets. For treasuries for about the last 6 months the market has been the dog and the fed the tail. Oil is undergoing valuation in a rather precise fractal pattern because of the amount of credit invested in that market. The larger the market, e.g., the world equities index, the more accurate the composite fractal picture of the world credit situation.
The closest approximation to the absolute world credit situation would be a weighted world index where the credit share of each market, e.g., the FTSE, gold commodities, French long term bonds, et. al., is given the appropriate weighted proportionality and a total daily valuation summation is generated. The daily fractal pattern of such a weighted world index would give world economists the truly big macroeconomic picture.
Returning to our earlier discussion and having noted the 2.5 times secondary limit, we may yet still see a little elephant shaped wart fractal of 1-2.5 days. We are at a break point and will know by the end of today's (Friday) trading day as to whether this last Wednesday represented the lower high and final top of market saturation before the major devaluation. If not, economists may have to wait roughly 112-142 years(based on a similar average long term interest rate) to see a double exhaustion gap in the dailies of a major equity index. G. Lammert"
Meantime, although the web bot project is closed down, we wonder what will happen around the 14th, a day when by web bot accounts, the economy will begin to look like a "burned out stump" and with the Bush folks only able to watch in horror. We wonder what that's about but at the same time, because it fits so closely with Lammert's fractal work, we'd be short or in cash if we were will up to our old pattern day trader ways. Which we're not, as the PPT I figure owes me a Lexus and a half or two Cayennes.
Retirement Storm
A long time back, I came to the realization - that I have shared with you both here and over at our www.independencejournal.com site, the view that you really ought to consider a far different kind of retirement plan than the ones that we sold by a greedy financial industry to millions of hardworking Americans. One choice was to do the conventional thing - and make contributions into a plan, while the option that I suggested was to pick out some inexpensive place in the country to live and plan on making your last years gardening for survival. That's because if the Second Depression is here (and people are waking up to the fact that their portfolios have been shrinking in a serious way since 2000) all the paper money in the world won't mean much - just as it didn't in the Weimar Republic experience of Germany.
So its with frame of mind that I want you to go over now and read about the troubles of the U.S. Pension Guarantee Agency - which sounds like it's just starting to fell the pain: http://www.nypost.com/business/29897.htm
Big bucks for Russians
Yep, the CIA says it, so its probably true - a number of top Russian leaders made a pile of money on the Oil for Food deals in Iraq prior to us stepping in: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/08/iraq.shtml Not that it's a surprise, of xcourse.
A Bigger than Beslan Plot?
That's what authorities are wondering in light of information about schools in six states which were mentioned in insurgent documents recovered in Iraq: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/WNT/US/schools_threat_041007-1.html
Terror in Egypt
Israeli officials are quick to pin the blame for yesterday's bombing of a plush resort in Egypt on al Qaida, although the proof's not in yet. They figure it to be a foregone conclusion. Death toll is 25+ with many more wounded: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3725662.stm
Dangers of Wedding Parties
You might remember a year or so back, there was a big flap when U.S. forces apparently goofed and bombed a wedding party. Well, here's another one today where 12 people were killed in a wrongly directed attack: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3725760.stm
Roadwise
This morning we're rolling out from El Paso and heading to Phoenix where we should arrive this afternoon. About the only thing worth mentioning from yesterday's drive was that we took a little side trip through Midland Texas - because wanted to count bumper sticks for Bush/Cheney is the old home town. In driving around for about 20 minutes in the business district, down Wall Street and back up Texas street, the whole length of downtown, I spotted only one Bush Cheney sticker and that was on the back of a white pickup truck. The only other sticker I saw was for the Braves - which made even less sense. But it told me a bit about Texas politics and even though Bush considers himself a shoo-in for this state, the independent minded folks of Midland don't mess up cars with bumper stickers.
Two other notes, we discussed at some length the growing of granola and Wheat Chex between cotton crops, and I observed this morning that the closer I get to the Texas border, the harsher toilet paper becomes, even in a $100 plus Hilton room.
Inside Report:
The U.S. is slowly edging toward losing the 200 miles of territory closest to the Mexican border. This weekend, I'll fill you in on how and why. If you're not a subscriber, click here.
Winter Eye Popper
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released its forecast of energy prices that consumers and businesses will pay this coming heating season - and you're not going to like the outlook"
This winter, residential space-heating expenditures are projected to increase for all fuel types compared to year-ago levels. Increases in heating fuel prices are likely to generate higher expenditures even in regions where demand for fuel is expected to fall. Average residential natural gas prices are expected to be 11 percent higher than they were last winter, and household expenditures are expected to be 15 percent higher. Heating oil prices are expected to average 29 percent higher compared with last winter and household expenditures are expected to be 28 percent higher. Propane prices are expected to average 17 percent above last winter, with 22 percent higher expenditures for propane-heated households. For details, see “Winter Fuels Outlook: 2004-2005.”
Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Figures 1 to 5)
U.S. spot prices for crude oil (West Texas Intermediate (WTI)) continue to fluctuate above the $45 per-barrel range. The projected average WTI price for the fourth quarter of 2004 is $46.40 per barrel, about $5 per barrel higher than in the previous Outlook.
Prices continue to remain high even though Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production reached its highest levels in September since OPEC quotas were established in 1982. OPEC crude oil production in September reached 30 million barrels per day, 400,000 barrels per day higher than the August level, largely because of increased Iraqi production.
OPEC production capacity remains about 0.5-1.0 million barrels per day above current OPEC crude oil production levels.
Overall oil inventories in the United States and the rest of the industrialized world remain below normal, largely because almost 500,000 barrels per day of production were lost during the September hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico region. Industry officials estimate that resumption of normal operations could take between 45 and 90 days. Below-normal oil inventories across the industrialized countries have contributed to concerns about the adequacy of supply to meet rapidly expanding global oil demand. As a result, average monthly WTI prices are not likely to fall below $40 per barrel until the end of 2005.
The rest of the details are available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/steo.html and if you're a trademark lawyer, dontcha think their logo looks too much like Microsoft's? Why they are using that is like way beyond us.
Hats off to Bernard at our Houston Bureau for the catch on this... not the kind of thing the Bush family wants out just before elections...
Couple of things this should do: Wake Sleepy ("Wrong Way") Al from his well-lubricated dreams about oil price hikes being transitory over at the Fed. And worry the hell out of Iran.
Our Thursday Bone Us? Not bloody likely to be in government COLA/CIPI figures! This is the sausage and you are the hidee. Now, remember the ol' people's economist told you last year: real inflation will be 13% in 2004. Who you going to believe, your gubbermunt or your own lying checkbook?
$52-Ouch
Oil peaked over $52 this morning: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041007/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_40 Not much I can do here except say $53 is the next mark, but if the reports of a 20% devaluation of the dollar are correct, then $60 oil is sure bet.
Lammert's Latest Outlook
George
Terminal credit expansion fractal possibilities-
A blind man, who was trying to determine the shape of an elephant had felt the entire elephant except for the tail. As he began to run his hands down the top portion of the tail he became very excited. Because he had earlier heard the thumbing of the tail at the lower back hooves he could now picture in his mind the composite elephant with the hard tail plummeting nearly straight down to the ground.
All of sudden he felt a wart rapidly jutting upward from the dorsal surface of the tail it was in the shape of -- that's right -- of a little elephant. But he also knew that this little elephant shaped wart wouldn't impede the overall time for his hands to make their short journey to the end of the grounded tail.
13 to 14 more trading days to bottom. A gapped near (within ten percent of the low) quasi key reversal day in the daily NASDAQ is extremely unusual. Could there be a second exhaustion gap in this small elephant shaped wart fractal? It would be historical (and historically oversold) for a major index on a daily (not futures) pattern to have a double exhaustion gap.
The market will declare where the saturation point is. At the saturation point there will be no more buyers: the inflection will occur; and contraction will occur. If this synchronization, fractal, and saturation hypothesis is proven true, I suspect future economists will invest a great deal of time in the fractal study of this terminal historical short blow off fractal saturation period and subsequent massive devaluation.
--G. Lammert
War Within Islam
We're watching the continue battle for supremacy between the Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Today's focus in on a Sunni gathering in Pakistan where 39 (like to rise) were killed by an explosion: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3722562.stm
Lies Pilling Up
Yup, another CIA report is out that basically says Iraq had no WMD's. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3722306.stm The fall out of this will be a denial from the White House. In England, Tony "better ticker now" Blair is trying to change subjects by talking about ending hunger in Afria. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3722020.stm Give us a break and stop playing the roll of Dodgers.
Huge Algae Bloom
And poisonous at that, off the Washington Coast: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002049276_webtoxicalgae29.html
Showdown on Mountain Predictions
OK, this is the day to look for a pop from Mount St. Helens - or is it? Astrologers have told us "yes" while scientists today are lowering their concerns: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBGRGSU00E.html
More Debate Feedback
Got a letter from the other reader this morning (besides you).
"George George George George George...
What kind of liberal garbage sites are you looking at? The one blog site is dominated by rabid dog democrats. If you took the time to watch the debate, Cheney took Edwards to the woodshed. Edwards was trying to be aggressive, but Cheney calmly shot down Edwards each time, and was a gentleman in doing it. How about reading a conservative website, Free Republic( www.freerepublic.com) for some balance? Cheney won. Edwards is scary without his lawyer talking points.
I knew not everyone would be happy with my pointing out the polls on this one, but as I've said for a long time, the idea of an October Surprise is still on the table and should that happen (when?) then sure, George will be re-elected (A terror attack or Osama showing up at Abu Graib for lunch).
The Oil Gold Multiplier
There I was, waking up in a nice hotel in Abilene Texas this morning - and hit me - like a ton of bricks. Has the people's economist lost his flipping mind? It's there right in front of us - the ultimate indicator of inflation. Its the gold to oil price increase! How does it work? Not so fast, partner - let's ask why first. The why is simple: I like ratios - always have and always will.
The ratio today is that oil is up $0.50 while gold, when I looked was up $1.60. In other words, every dollar up on oil is $150 or so more for gold. So, if I think oil is going to $60, that would imply gold up about $12 - or more - as people bail from other -so called investments. I say so-called because of Ure's two golden rules. 1) If you have to ask for it, it's not yours and 2) paper money is not money. Oh sure you can trade paper for vodka, but some day vodka makers will wake up with a horrific monetary hangover. So this morning, I'll looking at gold closing in on $422 and telling myself that coin I bought at $260 three years ago was a genius move.
Thanks to K6FEJ
There we were, 40 miles West of Fort Worth(less) and wondering where we would find a place to sleep and eat. Pop up the mobile ham radio on 20-meters and this fellow Mark is San Francisco comes back and says "Hi!". After explaining our plight, Mark's wife Cynthia (also a ham) jumps on the computer and finds that there's a Embassy Suites in Abilene with a good restaurant. Yup. So $99 dollars (corp rate) later, here we are and I'm about to go through the sumptuous breakfast buffet while Elaine catches a few more winks. My point is what? If you haven't investigated ham radio as a hobby, you really should. Not only can you find good conversation to pass the miles with, but in emergency, you can always find someone with internet access 1,300 miles away, willing to help. Is that a great hobby, or what? Thanks Mark & Cynthia. See: www.arrl.org for more on the hobby.
If you are a ham, I'll be hanging out around 14.215 +/- QRM. AC7X is the callsign.
Travel Plan
Why can't all hotels and motels be required by Federal Law to have their TV channels always be the same? I have to relearn channel layouts everywhere we stay. Is that asking too much?
Oil Nearing $52
The price of oil this morning hit a new all-time high: $51.48. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041006/oil_prices_12.html We won't say "I told you so...but...
The economic implications of this are pretty staggering, including that we may now be entering a 13-14 day period of economic hell, which as fractal analyst (when he's not busy in the health care arena) G. Lammert explains this way:
"George -If my hypothesis is correct 14-15 more trading days to a low.-
How things work. If my hypothesis about market saturation and simple fractal analysis is correct, I suspect a hundred years from now people will be dumbfounded on how obtuse we are at the present time by overlooking what is in plain sight. The daily and yearly markets represent a continuous fractal plot and graph correlative of ongoing credit availability with periodic market saturations and contractions. All of the other daily market news and world events (an example of an exception -which it would be wise to be cognizant of- is the destruction of a government and its dependent markets, e.g., CSA in 1865, BC Carthage et. al.) are for the most part background noise to the mathematically simple fractal proportions that define what is happening on a hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly time period in term of credit expansion and contraction.
Ultimately I intuit that the proportions of the fractals are based on both average long term interest rate and the balance of good debt and bad debt. Good debt is debt which can and will be paid back based on reasonable valuations and expected continuation of personal earnings for the life of the debt. Bad debt is debt that will be defaulted on or reorganized based on overvaluation of the purchase cost for the entity for which the debt was incurred or on the improbability of continued earnings from a job that is either of low utility or is overvalued in a world market economy.
It is possible that there will another positive credit expansion for a few years, ie, with market valuation increases above our current levels -if-the lows of about 83 weeks ago are not exceeded. With regard to the paragraph above about good and bad debt and where I believe we are presently, I personally believe the lows will be exceeded. The unbiased market will soon tell us how bad the credit situation is. G Lammert"
So would a break to under 9,500 surprise us before the election? Nope. While Lammert's call of a key reversal earlier this week didn't meet the classic test (lower close) it was never the less a picture of an exhaustion rally so today's action to reclaim the gain by moving lower will be no surprise. But the thing to watch now will be momentum and distance down.
Mountain Interest
It's starting to look like the prediction of the astrologers that Mt. St. Helens will pop for good around October 7th is getting closer to reality: http://www.local6.com/weather/3780913/detail.html Say what you will about astrology (like "George, it's not a science") and I'll point out that it was the basis of astronomy which is a science and if St. Helens goes blooey tomorrow, I'll expect you to chill on the bad rap of the 'strologers.
Some Turkey, Please
Despite the rash of terrorist bombings over the past year, Turkey is getting ready to joining the EU: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/default.stm. It's interesting to watch now because a) there will amost certainly be all kinds of terror now to keep Turkey from joining and b) because one noted economist/investment advisor calls the EU something like "13 bankrupt countries held together by a common currency."
Debate Run Down:
I don't need to tell you about the Veep debate, but if you missed it: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3716852.stm The not-too-surprising note is that Edwards seems to have won handily. See: http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000483.php
Cloning Anti-Terror Plans
We continue observing the developments in Russia in the wake of the Beslan School tragedy. We see Vlad Putin's pals hyping the same kind of Draconian snatch of personal freedoms as was attempted (and somewhat successfully) here in the U.S.A. The latest if that the Russians are trying to roll out something like that super-sized version of spyu on your neighbors that the Feds tried to foist on us a year or two back. Spy On Your Neighbor was actually used in Russia in KGB days - now the hype is to get it back under the false dress of "fighting terror" http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/06/security.shtml It's amazing - and more than coincidental we think that the two largest nuclear powers in the world are using "terror" events to turn their countries into informer based police states.
Naturally, like the Twin Towers event here, the coverage of victim mourning is being encouraged in Russia: http://www.mosnews.com/images/g/antiterror.shtml and those media that dare to question - indeed present facts that run contrary to the government line, are being issued stern warnings about their future. http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/06/mediawarnings.shtml
Because the Russians aren't as wired as the U.S., viewpoints like the New York poll that said more than half the residents think 9/11 is a LIHOP/MIHOP* event are being squashed right up front.
Regardless of your take on the events, the point not to be missed and playing on a world stage near you is not the event, but the well-orchestrated similarities both in event impact and policy directions being followed as a result. Now, ask yourself, who's the moving hand pulling the strings to all this?
(* let it happen on purpose or made it happen on purpose)
Wednesday
Economic Outlook: Debt Ceiling Weighs
The odds of a genuine Fifth Wave up has been growing almost daily since the S&P 500 broke down trend last week with the modest rally. While our Aggregate Index below still has quite a ways to go, there are some economists who believe that robust growth will occur next year regardless of whether George Bush or John Kerry is in the White House: Story
As a people's economist, though, there are a couple of "I don't buy it's" lingering in the wings.
First and foremost is the cost of energy. The recent round of hurricanes resulted in U.S. oil production dropping to a 54-year low and prices are back over the $50 mark Story. If this were the only factor, I'd maybe be able to go along with my esteemed colleagues. You already know that China has displaced the U.S. as the new best customer of the Saudis, but did you notice that Shengli Oilfield has built a new offshore oil center which will turn out 2-million tons of product a year? Story
However, it's not all about China. It's really about the debt. The free spending Bush administration, admittedly pressured into spending by a big economic downdraft for the past 3-years, is facing the Federal Debt Ceiling this week. Story Here's the deal on the debt limit: Officially it's at $7.384 trillion.
But wait! How can someone report hitting the ceiling as a future event? It's already happened. According to the Treasury Department figures, we're bankrupt already. The OFFICIAL U.S. debt to the penny October 1st is $7,409,510,200,267.47 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm The Spendicans will no doubt quibble that Treasury includes something they don't feel compelled to count - but it's budget dust and we're sinking into a compound interest mire, no doubt to the delight of central banksters.
One more reason to disagree with the group-thinkers is the cycle work of G. Lammert that we've reported previously. From an email from him this morning:
826 AM Tuesday. George, Please review the daily TFC charts and look at the pattern for yesterday (Monday) for the SPX, NDX, and the Russell futures. That is the classic key reversal pattern. It is still possible to have another saturation day on Wednesday. If it should occur on Wed, the ultimate low for the market should occur in May 2006 vice in the fall of 2006. G Lammert (Which would fall in with what the bots have been saying - lower next May)
So please forgive my parting of ways with my more papered colleagues. Yes, there may be some good news here and there - and yes the market may do one more rally, but it's still doomed to our way of thinking because the whole house of cards is built on debt. Just ask me in a couple of weeks.
Wal-Mart Growing
Say what you will about Wal-Mart contributing to the trade deficit picture, the fact is Wal-Mart is nothing more or less than a product of the free enterprise system and the American consumer's penchant for putting spending ahead of political ideology. So, with American's hard-pressed in the wallet, it's only nature that Wal-Mart will be expanding in 2005 a whopping 8% on a square footage basis: Story
We've been watching the micro-economics of East Texas and it seems that towns that get a Wal-Mart store continue their growth. Apparently when a city is big enough to support a Wal-Mart, it's got enough stability that the new store brings community growth that offsets the concentration of retailing power. That said, we still don't think that putting in a mega-retailer is a right use of local government's powers of eminent domain, but you can find a more detailed discussed of this at sites like this one and this one.
New People Cooking Weapon?
The Air Force has a new directed energy weapon about to come on line. It's the result of 25-years of under-wraps work at Wright-Pat and it is a microwave that disables enemies by causing a "burning sensation." Story While the story didn't give much detail, the existence of directed microwave energy weapons has been rumored for a long time - and this paragraph in the story could be read as suggesting that something is already deployed or it could be read that the lab version is heavy:
Erno said the system would probably be used on cargo planes such as C-130s. With a superconducting generator, the system will weigh about half of its current 20,000 pounds, which is the equivalent of about eight Toyota Corollas.
All of which might give credence to the weather engineering/ weather warfare stories we've been reporting. By the way, the U.S. has strict limits on the amount of ionizing radiation a person can be exposed to when working with microwaves - so the real way the weapon works is by partially cooking people's nerves while their alive. But then, war's different right.
FCC Policy on Human Exposure to Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Fields
The FCC is required by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 to evaluate the effect of emissions from FCC-regulated transmitters on the quality of the human environment. At the present time there is no federally-mandated radio frequency (RF) exposure standard. However, several non-government organizations, such as the American National Standards Institute (ANSI), the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE), and the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) have issued recommendations for human exposure to RF electromagnetic fields. The potential hazards associated with RF electromagnetic fields are discussed in OET Bulletin No. 56, "Questions and Answers About the Biological Effects and Potential Hazards of Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Fields." http://www.fcc.gov/oet/rfsafety/
The biological effects on dead chickens mat be observed in your own microwave at home. And yes, in order to incapacitate a human a microwave is overdose them on ionizing radiation. If you haven't done the math yet, the weapon is roughly 4-thousand times more powerful than your home microwave, 1-2 million times more power than a cell phone's output and presumably pulsed at a frequency designed to involuntarily fire nerve synapses. Short bursts or not, ionizing is ionizing, but absent animal testing protests (and they're not testing on Barbie dolls), who cares?
Speaking of weapons, more on scalar weather: Scott Stevens, our TV weatherman who dares to question what his more "peered down" colleagues won't discuss about weather being influenced by man-made means, now has an email address you can send him photos and reports of anomalous clouds: tvwxman@urbansurvival.com. You should also bookmark his planned new site for a visit next week (if all goes by plan) at www.weartherwars.info.
Afghan Elections
President Karzai is outside of Kabul doing a little campaigning for the presidency of the country which is up for a vote this weekend: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3715894.stm Of course whether the election is meaningful, is another kettle of fish. Opposition leaders have been thrown in jail and the like...just the kind of thing you'd expect before a "limited options" kind of presidential contest.
Maybe the idea of "limited choice" presidential contests is a global phenomena, not just the frat brother versus frat brother "choice" offered up by the corporately driven democans and republicrats, neither of which seems to want to live the Constitution on issues like income taxes, the common defense and limited central government. Go lawyerslative corpocracy! As one site notes, in 1993-1994: "In 1993–94, the majority of U.S. Congressmen was lawyers: 155 were businessmen and 239 were lawyers. Many of the businessmen were also lawyers. The President and his wife were lawyers as well, as was 61 percent of the Senate." Link If you find more current data, please send it along.
Let Him Finish
From an email this morning:
In the middle of an answer Bush said, "now let me finish" as if someone
was interrupting him - yet nobody apparently did - was he talking to the person in his
earpiece.
Listen to the mp3 yourself
http://nyc.indymedia.org/usermedia/audio/6/bush-let_me_finish.mp3
or watch the video at c-span
rtsp://cspanrm.fplive.net/cspan/project/c04/c04093004_debate1.rm
ffwd to 40 min 30 sec
Iran Missile Range Extended
Oh, Oh. Here's the kind of "my big long thing is bigger than yours" kind of rhetoric that leads to wars: Former Iranian president Rafsanjani says Iran's missiles are good for 2,000 kilometers: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3716490.stm Is he nuts? This just plays in to the hands of those who want a bigger war and more territory in the Middle East occupied by installed governments.
Recruit Flu
Interesting article about "recruit flu" a virus-like illness hitting new recruits: http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,FL_ill_100504,00.html?ESRC=eb.nl
Monday
Scalar St. Helens Clouds?
I had a few minutes on Sunday to get to the latest ?scalar? cloud pictures that I received from Pacific Northwest TV weatherman Scott Stevens. He sent me a picture of the weather at Mount St. Helens last week and I think you're agree after looking at it, there's some mighty odd looking clouds up in the Northwest:
If you know the area, you'll see that Mount St. Helens is in a very odd place totally in the clear - almost like it's a "swept" area. If you want to see some additional eye-opening pictures of clouds that don't look natural to us, click over to his page at http://urbansurvival.com/stevens.htm Please excuse my rough artwork on this, but the cloud rotations around Puget Sound don't look normal based on my 40-years of living and flying up there. Stevens thought it a bit odd, too.
Lest you think Stevens is seeing things in the clouds that aren't there, and me as well, click over to the Tom Bearden Website at http://www.cheniere.org/video/sovietweathervideo.html and you'll see a discussion of Soviet weather engineering over the U.S. dating back as far as 1985!
The eruption of Mt. St. Helens is now called imminent by the eminent: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3712196.stm and recommended by our Canadian Bureau headed up by Tim B: www.volcanolive.com
Square Clouds in Sweden
A reader in Sweden noticed some odd clouds, too. The one that grabbed my eye was this "square cloud" picture. He writes:
"I took a hike in the woods on Saturday and saw something I never have seen bevore. the first thing that got my attention were all this airplane vapor/condens lines in the sky. I counted over 20 all together, from the northern to allmost all the way to the southern horisont. but what really astonished me was then the fast transformation of these "cloudlines". it just took approx. a halv a hour for everything to look more or less normal again. that this lines are not from a normal airplane, this you can see on one of the pictures with actually a airplane in it. it´s a pity that I cann´t send you the pics in original size, becouse I just have a normal 56k modem, but I think you can see some very strange "lines" in the clouds, a specially in DSC02757.jpg, were there is a very fine line going across. I didn´t change anything on the pics, they are just as they have been in the camera, all though it looks like someone had some fun time in Photoshop.
Maybe Scott Stevens has a explanation on the subject??
Key Reversal Day
With the attack on gold pushing it down more than $6 so far, the following from G. Lammert who's working on saturation theory is of interest:
George - For the current subcycle the top for the DJIA was in Feb 2004, for the NYSE and SPX in March 04. If my count (to the day)is correct, look for the secondary top( a lower high) to be heralded by what the Ellioticians or old time chartists call 'a key reversal day' which I call a market saturation day - when the buyers are exhausted. This is represented by a market gap from the preceding day higher than all recent trading days - but ending on the low of the day. If my count to the expected low for this month is correct the key reversal day must be either today (Monday) or on Wed of this week. The low for the month may be predictive of the ultimate low in a few years. See Don Delavan Safe Haven article. By my estimate of my predicted daily low, he is correct
The Don Delavan article referenced is at http://www.safehaven.com/article-2023.htm Like everything on the www.safehaven.ca site, well worth reading.
Kasriel's Outlook
Paul Kasriel, Director of Economic Research at Northern Trust gets a huge gold star for his analysis of what will happen to the US when the dollar is revalued (whether we like it or not) by the foreign countries that have until recently been co-addicts to our debt bubble. Click to http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/ and then open the October 01,2004 presentation (It's a .PDF file). Our favorite part (page 21:
RESULTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD “SHOCK” THE HIGHLY-INDEBTED HOUSEHOLD SECTOR
RESULTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD “SHOCK” AN EXPENSIVE HOUSING MARKET
A “SHOCKED” HOUSING MARKET COULD SEVERELY DAMAGE THE BANKING SYSTEM
He also notes that the ""P/E" for housing is the highest in history. So, when the music stops, household wealth will tank, which killed consumer spending which will ripple to high unemployment, which will lead to mortgage defaults, which would put more pressure downward on real estate, which could cost lenders dearly and the cycle will grow. But as he points out in slide 30 "BUT DON’T WORRY ABOUT THIS RISK CASE BECAUSE ALAN GREENSPAN HAS ASSURED US THAT THERE IS NO HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE." Errr....
All of this makes good economic sense to us - well done to Kasriel and Northern Trust for telling it (eloquently) like it is.!
Just Gaza Did It
Among other things, the Israelis were going into Gaza after rocket launchers. The death toll from the weekend attack on the Gaza Strip is now 10 and climbing: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/CC81769B-6093-41CF-BE91-1F11774D0100.htm
Baking Out Trauma
Meantime, Israel reportedly will be trying to soothe Post Traumatic Stress syndrome with pot...a sort of "bake out" of stress: http://sg.news.yahoo.com/041003/3/3nio6.html No bongs, though. It will be liquid THC.
With Friends like this: WTF?
Whatzzup wid dah Oil Patch Gang, bro?
Lemme run it down Slick: we are at supposed peace with the Soviets...I mean Rushin's, right? Then can any red-blooded homey tell me WTF the Russian Defense Minister's posturing 'bout "Maintaining Nuclear Parity with the U.S." is all about? Whatzzat 'bout, blood? Ain't we coo? http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/01/nuclearparity.shtml. (Next time Vlad the oil bailer is down at the ranch he needs a slap-down, George. Or, we's be'in set up, homey...)
But if you FTM
Yo, dats FTM as in "follow da money" not WTF as in the so-called presidential "race" uh huh.
You'll see that there's more than a little horse trading going on. You see the Russian government while waving the stick (see above, and if you need a translation, call someone in Compton) If you want to understand the fine "You cash and your valuables please, read over to http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/10/01/gazpromforeigners.shtml and you know it's a bidding war between the U.S. and China.
(Whew, the attack of streetbonics has passed now, I'll be all better in-a-minit...)
Billy Joel Weds
I like his music, otherwise this would have no place on an economics web site, except that maybe a happy Columbia Records artist is good for the label: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/music/3711164.stm Last time I saw his act live was at a KUBE-FM party at the Seattle Center how many eons ago?
Long Before...
...everyone runs out of oil, we'll have a complete breakdown of society. And that's the good news if you go read the book "The Coming Dark Age" which we discussed in depth on Inside Report this weekend. Subscription information here. The book - which you gotta read is here.
(If you're looking for streetbonics, Inside Report is very academic and 'right respectable. Thursday we take off on a cross country road race to get to a consulting gig in LA for who-knows-how-long so time's tight, you unnastand me sucka?)
News from Elliott Wave International
On to Our Charts!
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, Chief Skepticrat and People's Economist
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