Updated: Saturday,
Dec. 4, 2004
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Tommy Thompson's I.Q.
Ok, here we are on Saturday morning, so as a reader of Urban Survival, maybe you can devote the rest of the weekend to helping me figure out Tommy Thompson's I.Q. First, the "normal" version of the news about his resignation yesterday as Secretary of Healthy and Human Services Story Link. Fine, no problem, except that there are so many people resigning from the Bush Administration lately that phrases like "rats" and "sinking ship" keep going off in the dusty regions in the back of the mind (8 out of 15 at the Cabinet are toast, or 53.3% have taken a hike). Odd, but still OK - That is, until you read alternate coverage such as the San Francisco Chronicle version of the story that quotes Thompson on the terrorist threat to America's food supplies: "For the life of me," he said, "I cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply because it is so easy to do."
What??? Is Thompson mad? Here we are, a country which is going through grope and fondle airport lines - a country which has removed thousands of pages from the internet because they contained material which could be adverse to our national security - and along comes Thompson with the intellectual equivalent of a sign that says "Kick Me!" With Ashcroft and Ridge both lame, no one's going to call him on it, but maybe someone should.
Not that I'm alone in my disbelief of his comments: Remember we have a reader/correspondent who is presently in Afghanistan. Our intrepid reader sent along this note overnight which clearly demonstrates that the rest of the world - including the Taliban (if they are that) - are equally dumbfounded:
(Kabula, Afghanistan) U.S. - "I was visited by two men late yesterday. They told me they were local scholars interested in the u.s. culture. My interrupter insisted they were Taliban. They dwelled on one fact that circulated widely here yesterday. It seems that another member of the Bush administration stepped down yesterday, during his exit speech he said something to the effect of "I cant believe no one has poisoned the u.s. food supply yet." These guys were dumbfounded, they could not believe that any one could be that stupid. That's what they asked me over and over and over. They are trying to decide if we are perhaps the stupidest people on the planet, or some kind of cosmic clever. They believe we are begging to be hit again so we can take over the world. They do see us as the great Satan, the devil incarnate come to walk their land.
---A wandering Texan"
Our Suggestion: Tommy Thompson (and everyone else in government) would be well-advised to get a poster like this one:
Tommy: Buy at http://brandy.weblogs.us/poster/loose-lips-might-sink-ships-890333.html
Ukraine - Really about Iraq?
Here's an interesting one - the Ukraine election fraud story is big for one reason that gets brushed over in the U.S. press - check it out: Ukraine has 1,600 troops in Iraq fighting on the U.S. side and the move now it for Ukraine to pull 'em out: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/12/03/ukriraq.shtml
Lenovo ThinkPads?
Not that they were made in the U.S., so we won't turn this into a job-jacking story, but it is interesting that IBM is selling its PC division and one of the suitors is a big Chinese outfit that most folks have never heard of: Lenovo: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/04/business/worldbusiness/04asia.html
Competition for Cable Modems
There's more court action on the question of whether your local cable company, which may have been providing your cable modem for high speed internet access, could be forced to allow other cable modem services to be on the same wire: http://www.thestandard.com/internetnews/000700.php
And at an event this week where the press was excluded, former CIA Boss George Tenent reportedly is suggesting that more governmental control over the internet would be a step in the direction of greater homeland security: http://freeinternetpress.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2426 Of course without the internet, we wouldn't necessarily know how Tommy Thompson is holding up the "kick us here" signs...
Nevertheless, if you are looking for the government to regulate the internet, remember that it will not actually happen until the modern Crash equivalent of the 1934 Communications act. In other words, because the market peak in 2000 is (in my view) the equivalent of 1929 (so far) then we would not expect the "internet communications act" until about 5-years later - which would put us into the middle of next year before such regulator action becomes likely. Moreover, because this version of the Great Depression will play out at a slower rate of speed, due to higher communications levels* we might not see internet regulation until 2006-2007.
The most likely way that internet regulation (licensing) will come to pass is we will be brainwashed into believing that the internet somehow was involved in the latest (our next) terrorist attack. Government will then whip up some corporate-fascist rhetoric about "honest people need not fear" - and the "driver's licensing system" for the internet will become required. Not only will this give government complete control of what you read or write on the net, such as fines or imprisonment for criticizing Israel (the neocon's favorite government), criticism of the Iraq war, suggesting that elections or financial markets are rigged, for example, but it will allow the government a fine record of your online sources of income and expenses.
This is a ways off, but that's the direction - and it will all be done, write down where you heard it - in the name of "National Security." When the next terrorist event hits I can almost guarantee there will be some blame on the internet. You do understand that Microsoft's Passport system could be usurped by government to be used as a national internet driver's license, right?
*In my tinkering financial simulations, crashes are caused by asymmetric expectations. The wider the differences in expectations, the more rapid (steep/violent) price adjustments become. As rates of communications are increased, the maximal differences in agent expectations are reduced, thus facilitating moderation of what would, at slower communications rates, accelerate into extreme volatility in asymmetric reaction to endogenous (inside the market) events. Limitations post 1987 on computer driven trading serve to prevent these extremes of information asymmetry and thus have contributed to stability. Because of this leveling of the endogenous expectations through what is effectively a communications equalizing system, we see a higher risk to financial markets from exogenous (outside the market) events such as terrorist attacks or concerted financial attacks on a currency or interest rate such as could be argued (along with derivatives or trade imbalances) was the case in 1987.
Web Book Reviews
Our 27 minute video CD along with workbook on how to build your own radio-controlled surveillance vehicle for your home will be released early next week - $20.
I've had nothing but good feedback on our book on how to build your own web site. For information on this "for beginners" book, click over to http://urbansurvival.com/usbooks.htm
Did I mention what a great Christmas gift our Inside Report makes for loved ones?
subscription info. This week's report deals with psychological aspects of trading - and how to build a little checklist to help you improve your investment aims - just as you would a golf game.
Friday
Recovery Rings Hollow
Here's the official news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics over at the Department of Labor: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: NOVEMBER 2004
Employment rose in November, and the unemployment rate, at 5.4 percent, was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000 over the month, with job gains in several service-providing industries.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
Both the number of unemployed persons, 8.0 million, and the unemployment rate, 5.4 percent, were about unchanged in November. The jobless rate has been either 5.4 or 5.5 percent in each month since July. This is slightly below the rates that prevailed in the first half of 2004.
In November, the unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (4.9 percent), adult women (4.8 percent), teenagers (16.6 percent), whites (4.7 percent), blacks (10.8 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (6.7 percent)--showed little or no change over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.2 percent in November, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total employment in November grew by 483,000 to 140.3 million, and the em- ployment-population ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--edged up to 62.5 percent. The civilian labor force rose by 439,000 in November to 148.3 million; the labor force participation rate was 66.1 per- cent. (See table A-1.)
Over the year, the number of persons who held more than one job increased by 346,000 to 7.6 million, not seasonally adjusted. These multiple jobholders represented 5.4 percent of total employment in November. (See table A-13.)
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
There were 1.5 million persons who were marginally attached to the labor force in November, essentially the same as a year earlier.
Now, I don't want to say "I told you so!" But the unemployment picture isn't so rosy as you might have expected. And, while the market was poised to rally today on the strength of the Intel forecast, it's now likely to focus on something a little broader than chips - the issue of whether growing sales with fewer employees is really a good economic situation (Hint: no!)
The news is not as bad as I had been expecting privately. I don't know if I mentioned that I'm trying to hustle fellow Texan Elliott Middleton ( web site ) out of a beer based on my expectation that we'd be back in recession by the end of the year. Elliott's no doubt looking for limes or pretzels now in anticipation of me buying.
The unemployment rate which matters to us is the Table A-12 Alternative Measures of Labor Under-utilization which shows that again this month 9.1% of the workforce is either unemployed or seriously under-employed. The report at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm counts engineers flipping burgers as under-employed.
Look for the dollar to seriously crater today and gold to get going up later in the session.
Corporate Research
Our intrepid reader who is wondering why there are Delaware Corporations with names like United States of America and Social Security Administration has sent us a note:
I fed ex'd (delivery today) a check with a return fed ex to the Delaware sec of state. Ordered the annual filings of the following:
USA, IRS, SS, TREASURY, and CIA
Will update you as soon as I receive. (George comment 'Oh goodie!!!')
---
Have you seen how that article has spread around the web? It is on dozens of blogs and boards. The London Morning Paper linked to the Rense repost - with your web address at the top.
I want to thank you - I sent that information to about 20 websites - only you expressed interest. Rumormillnews, Rense and whatreallyhappened eventually linked to your article - the others still have me on ignore.
That's interesting stuff about story propagation. Judging by the listings that I looked through, I think it's a private group has reserved the corporate names but who knows? I'm just as interested as anyone to read the filings... Our deep thanks to the researcher...who I think I can safely refer to as Cheryl in the Research Department...
Wal-Mart and China
Wal-Mart is a great and well run company, but I have to wonder how soon they will have to open an office of the "Wal-Mart Secretary of State". Here's my reasoning:
First we read that Wal-Mart is disappointed in Christmas sales projections, so they are planning a massive ad campaign: NY Times Story
But we also read at the same time that China is planning to put nuclear missiles in submarines: http://www.washtimes.com/national/20041202-115302-2338r.htm We don't expect they will be patrolling with these nukes off St. Thomas, right? They will probably be off the U.S. at some point and aimed at (gulp!) us!
You see my inference, right: Disappointing WM sales, so China takes up arms?
So check out my plan to improve government by going with the flow. Ready? We ask Wal-Mart to set up a Secretary of State for Retail. That way, China fielding submarines in the wake of retail news can be directly routed to the SecDef without going through the time delay of going into quarterly reports and such. We see that Condi Rice is already Secretary of State for Oil. All we need now is for Monsanto or ADM to appoint a Secretary of State for Food and maybe a Secretary of State for Software over at Microsoft...(While we're at it, with Paul Allen's backing of Space Ship One, why not draft him to run NASA while we're at it?)
Urban's Afghanistan Correspondent...
A Texas buddy sent me an interesting email last night bemoaning the fact that the only place in Afghanistan he could find a drink (Texans occasionally take a drink, which I realize may be a shocking revelation) was at the restaurant atop the Inter-continental Hotel in Kabula. I asked him to share a "street-level view" of what the place is like. I figure as a taxpayer, I've got a pretty good investment in the place by way of our troops there:
We have been in country only a couple of days. I don't care who you are, y'all ain't never been to a place like this. This is the sand equivalent of the South Pole. The penguins have been replaced with goats. A few things stand out, lots of people from other places, that just seem to be hanging out. Lots and lots of US currency everywhere. I am told, but I do not know for certain, the Poppy is king and is cheap. On the day we arrived, two "Tourists" were stoned to death by the locals. The natives are Not friendly unless you are handing out Uncle Sam's finest example of the engravers art. I have yet to see a bill smaller than a $100.00. If you get near any ranking official his American body guards shoot you. If the official is standing in a crowd when someone becomes aggressive, they shoot everyone. If an official is attacked, and a group of his fellow country men try to protect him, everyone gets shot. Under the heading of "God I've died and gone to heaven," everyone is armed to the teeth. I bought a Russian, AK and four forty round magazines yesterday. I swear George It's just like San Antonio in the 50's.
- A wandering Texan
Baghdad: 26 Dead
We're like sure these people want our version democracy for them, right? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4064609.stm
Trouble from our Houston Bureau
Apparently, our Houston Bureau Chief has too much time on his hands because he sent me a note saying "Read http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1385572,00.html Then he goes into what I'm supposed to see:
Victorio Formisano, one of the principle investigators for ESA's Mars Express, was virtually buried alive for trying to suggest that there may be extant life on Mars. His findings of methane and formaldyhide in the Martian atmosphere all but prove that life is currently ongoing on the planet. But every time he tried to present his findings this past year, he was forced to tone it down and was even prevented from presenting in Paris in July.
Now I read this paragraph: "EARTH must take precautions to avoid contamination from lifeforms that must now be presumed to exist on Mars, leading scientists gave warning yesterday." [emphasis mine].
Turns out that the evidence for this comes from the Opportunity rover. OH REALLY??!! No one seems to have told anyone out here in taxpayer land! All we got was "evidence" of "past" water. Actually, to my eyes (and a lot of other smarter people) there is gobs of water all over Mars right now.
According to theory, when the Sun lit up, it blasted lighter molecules, like water, out into the solar system, leaving rocks in the inner system. Under the theory, we should see water increase exponentially as one moves out from the Sun. In other words, Mars should theoretically have a good bit MORE water than Earth! So far, observation has fairly well confirmed the theory in all cases but Mars. NASA's long and provable history of lying through its teeth about Mars would seem to suggest that Mars does in fact fit the theory.
One other interesting note. NASA has conducted many studies using humans and other life forms in enclosed spaces (like caves) for long periods of time. All life on Earth has a built-in 24-hour clock that runs perfectly even without visual cues like Sun, Moon, etc. There is one notable exception...HUMANS. Our bio clock runs closer to 25 hours without visual cues. Guess which planet's sidereal day it matches...
So I sent back the following note:
To: Houston Bureau:
Let's do a follow-up on the sex angle - should help circ.
Length of day on Mars is 24 hours 37 minutes. However that only accounts for Men (who are from Mars).
Please contact Dr. John Gray (women are from Venus) and ask him if women's bio clocks run at Venus' 344 earth days. May explain why they deny age so much.
Expect 200 word piece on if we have finally discovered why women are more sensitive about their age than men. Holding Tuesday lead for story...
Crime as a Drag on the Economy
Here's an interesting story - interesting to me anyway - because it puts into perspective what the impact of credit card fraud has been on the economy. I placed an order earlier this week with an online retailer (TigerDirect.com) for a new laptop, a wireless router and PCMCIA card, plus a whole gob of memory for the new laptop. Not that I really need a new computer because my old P-3 Sony Vaio is doing fine, especially because it has an external 80 gb hard drive and a Plextor DVD +/- RW hung on it by FireWire. But, it would be nice if Elaine could have a PC as the big workstation is collecting dust up at the ranch.
So I order and give the company all the information about where I live, explain the shipping, give them my number here, the number at the ranch, the security number on the card, yada, yada, yada.
So on Tuesday, I get an email that reads:
Thank you for your recent order. Unfortunately, we require additional information from you before your credit card issuing bak will approve the credit card charge for this order. Your order is currently being held awaiting resolution. We understand this purchase is important to you and would like to assist in expediting your order. A customer service representative will assist you in attempting to resolve this sutation. Please call our credit card hotline at 1-888-999-8800, hours of operation are Monday-Friday from 8am - 8pm (EST), and reference your order number: P*****.
This order is being billed to GEORGE URE in BOCA RATON, FL. The billing information must be the same as the record on file with your credit card issuing bank to avoid further delays.
In the event we are unable to process your order with the current payment method, please have an alternative method available when you call. Thank you again for choosing TigerDirect.com
So I dutifully call the telephone number listed and I go to great pains to explain to the folks that they are using an out of date database because Bank of America knows that my Boca Raton address changed as of December 2003 - they apparently were looking at an old database because - as you and the whole internet world knows - I HAVEN'T BEEN THERE FOR A YEAR.
Nevertheless, they needed to have me answer a few questions. Last four number of my social security number. (Grudgingly I play along). Then they give me a quiz. "Do you know so and so?" "Yes, that's my ex-wife - we've been divorced for 15 years...what's that have to do with my new computer?" "Just a formality. Let me continue. What state is the following address in: 1** NE ***th?" "Kirkland, Washington - that's a condo I leased from my sister in 19** or so. Say, you've got quite a database, there..." "Just a few more questions, sir: What was the address in Boca Raton? " (I gave her the answer.)
"Now, just one more thing, sir...We need to speak to you at the telephone number in Texas."
"Just how am I supposed to do that? As I've explained to you, I am in Burbank, California, and I am not going to travel 1,500 miles to talk to you on the phone. By the way - because you folks have delayed my order, which was going to come out second day today (Tuesday) so I could load the new laptop over the weekend, are you going to upgrade my shipping to overnight?"
"No sir. But we need to talk to someone at that Texas number." I'm thinking to myself, hmmm...if it won't be here this week, and I want to get my radio controlled surveillance vehicle video out next week, it will have to be done on the old Sony Vaio anyway...there wouldn't be time to futz around with the proposed new Toshiba.
"Well, call the Texas number. Mr. Bates may be there, and if you ask him where I am, he will tell you Burbank."
"OK, sir. I will put you on hold and call him." She drops off the line for a minute.
"Hello, sir? There's no one at that number. We will not be able to ship until we talk to someone at the number."
"And until you do, the order is on hold, right?" "Right." She tried again - but Panama was still over helping the neighbors with something and not answering the ranch phone.
"OK, cancel the order. I don't need the laptop that badly. I guess I can pick something up locally. If it isn't going to be here this weekend, it won't fit the slot in my schedule that it takes to load a PC [ Note: If you have ever gone from one computer to another, you know it's 2-3 days of pure hell to get everything moved and tuned up the way you like it.] Sorry for the trouble..."
Naturally, I followed up with an email canceling the order - but that got bounced back because responding to the credit card hold email apparently doesn't go to a person.
The reason I hare this story with you - if you've been paying attention - is to make the following points:
-
There are some great places to get online deals on good refurbished computers - and TigerDirect is such a place. (People ask me, where do I get PC's? Answer: Refurbs are the best bargain out there...) I will do business with them again - but not with a time crunch because I'm not at the ranch.
-
However, if you have moved in the past couple of years and you are not at your bank card address, add at least a week (or maybe more) to your planning horizon to allow for bank card security processing.
In the end, this is another one of those stories about how the cost of crime (credit card theft) has been passed on to the general consumer. You'll see that because of credit card fraud, there is a company somewhere that has a well trained operator trying to run a specific verification process (using an out of date database...) and you'll see that on occasion they run into cranky customers like me who order online because of the convenience involved. But once the online shopping (or card verification) procedure becomes a royal pain, the online order disappears.
Why? Because I can walk into any local retailer and buy $10,000 worth of stuff on the same card and they will look at my Texas driver's license and say "Yup...you're that feller, awright.." and they won't ask about my ex-wife of more than a decade back.
It teaches us that as the old saying that goes: voicemail + email does not equal face time. And online shopping while cheaper (no sales tax) still isn't as easy in some situations as a local purchase.
Reader Writes:
Reader: "Noted with interest your comments on 'Nemesis' and potential rogue objects in space. I literally just finished reading Nightfall by Isaac Asimov which covers *exactly* the same topic...spooky timing huh?" George: "Yeah, our timing is sometimes amazing, even to us..."
Thursday
Rally? Huh?
I was somewhere between awe struck and flabbergasted at the market's run yesterday. It's now getting close to an upside breakout, with a weekly close above 10,627 seeming to be very close indeed. But the substance behind the headlines leave us wondering about the intelligence of investors as a whole. For instance, here's a headline that says "Jobless Claims Up but Still Show Recovery". If you look at unadjusted figures, the news was good, but when seasonal adjustments were cranked in, the news was bad. So the "truth" (whatever that is when dealing with economic statistics is) could be debated either way - but a huge rally? I don't think so.
If you read the happy talk stories like the one at http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041202/wall_street_4.html you find little hints that Fed officials are worried that the risk of inflation is on the rise. Shock and awe...
The U.S. dollar's collapse has done wonders for silver which is now moving aggressively up now that gold is over $450 - silver's over $8.00 with our guess being $10 by Christmas if the dollar continues weak. This all smells suspiciously like a distribution from strong hands to weak - or thinkers to non-thinkers. Yes, the factory production levels are up a bit: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6970353 but the bad news is that thanks to automation, that doesn't necessarily mean more jobs. And, without jobs increases, you get what? Continued weak consumer confidence readings.
OK: There was a little bit of build in petroleum inventories, and that, coupled with the Saudi Oil hype about a 37% increase - which is about as likely to be true as Rudolph learning to speak French - apparently was all that was needed by the folks on the street. Tis the season, my foot. An inside report by Banc of America Securities out yesterday says Iraq oil is in trouble again: "Otherwise, Iraq crude oil exports fell to their lowest level in more than a year in November to approximately 1.3-1.5 MMBbls/d, as a result of sabotage, pipeline ruptures and weather-related tanker loading delays. This compares with exports of ~1.8 MMBbls/d in October, or the highest monthly level since the U.S.-led invasion last year." Fine research on B of A's part.
Oh yeah - auto sales are dropping: http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/12/02/business/auto.html and retail sucks: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041202/retail_sales_2.html
Deutsche Bank Cuts
Almost 2-thousand will get the axe: Story. Es nicht so gut, freund.
Another bank with a problem is Bank of America which is asking that a $10 billion suit against it over Parmalat be dismissed: Story
Southeast Airlines Gone
Sorry to see this: http://www.flyseal.com/
Misleading the Kids
Some criticism is out about "abstinence only" sex ed programs. Seems the curriculum developers are pushing a socio-religious agenda rather than science: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26623-2004Dec1.html There go those damn Democrats again - wanting to stick to the facts - a brave - if not foolhardy plan - in the face of the 48% mandate folks.
Emissions Standards for Mountains
It's evidence of earth changes that isn't making headlines. Mount St. Helens is pumping anywhere from 50 to 250 tons of sulfur dioxide per day into the atmosphere: Link. Makes even the most jaundiced LA commuter envious.
Houston Bureau: Planet X Worries
Houston Reports:
There are several theories about rogue bodies in long orbits around the Sun.
Nemesis http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/nemesis_010320-1.html) is the name for a theoretical "dark" star or brown dwarf whose proposed 26 million year orbit causes comet swarms as it passes through the Oort Cloud, explaining the VERY regular mass extinctions on Earth with the same period.
No need to go into a lot of detail on Planet X.
Now NASA releases a study in which they are modeling Nemesis, or something like it http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0412/01passingstar/ . Nemesis theory was developed decades ago and saw a lot of attention in the 80s, when I was studying astrophysics at UH. It faded for a time, but this tells me that they are advancing it again. Rogue orbital bodies have been advanced for some time as a way of explaining things like comet swarms, mass extinctions, various physical characteristics of the planetary bodies, and anomalous orbital characteristics (Venus' year is shorter than its day and it rotates in the "wrong direction").
I am curious about the timing and its relationship to Planet X hype. According to Nemesis theory, the dark sun would be at apoasis about now, since the last mass extinction was ~13 mya. (13-million years ago if you don't get Texas shorthand).
We have noticed an unusual number of TV signal breakups (pixilation of digital signals) and cell phone noise lately...it has us wondering about this.
On our Movie List
The new flick "The Aviator" dealing with the life of Howard Hughes looks interesting to us for holiday fair. And Finding Neverland - a book about the writing of the classic Peter Pan is getting good reviews: Link.
Wednesday
Spending More than We're Making
The American tendency to spend more than we make showed up again in figures out from the Commerce Department today: While October personal expenditures were up 7-10ths of one percent, incomes were up 6-10th's of one percent. Details This is precisely the kind of irresponsible personal behavior that the stock markets loves - so expect some rallying on the news.
Bank Runs Begin
Just as we were expecting - the Ukraine crisis has now spilled over into the financial arena with reports of bank runs: http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?ID=34538 Not that the bank runs will have any effect - yet. These kind of things take a while to propagate through the financial system. But, the potential for large-scale problems elsewhere exists whenever a bank has runs.
Members of the Ukraine government meantime have voted no-confidence in their prime minister: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4057213.stm
Tepid Retail Season
Despite the long lines on Friday of last week, things are not exactly going gang busters for the nation's big retailers: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041130/holiday_shopping_10.html One of the wild cards is the size on online business which is a bit tough to calculate in process. It's one of those stats that's a lot clearer in the rear view mirror m- say January.
Iraq Spin
Interesting story in the LA Times today about how the Pentagon has issued some phony press releases in order to confuse the insurgents in Iraq: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-warinfo1dec01,0,321180.story?coll=la-home-headlines The problem with such reports is that by issued phony news releases, we viewers no longer know when (or if) the Pentagon is telling the truth. It may be fine for gamesmanship in the military, but deliberately lying to CNN doesn't sound like good policy to us.
Donald Rumsfeld is facing criminal charges in Germany over the Abu Ghraib prison abuses reported earlier this year: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4057531.stm
Arab press reports today center on renewed U.S. fighting around Baghdad and a report that says the U.S. operation has been a public health disaster: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/30C967C7-5AD5-4FB7-945B-A7B64254CF86.htm
And there's a report that a Russian ultra-nationalist got millions from Saddam Hussein's government: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/12/01/zhirikoil.shtml
Blown Out
The 2004 hurricane season is coming to an end: Story. This has been an incredible year, especially for that part of Florida that was hit four times with hurricane force winds.\
Things have been far from quiet on the Pacific side. A major effort is underway in the Philippines where up to 400 people may have died in recent storm activity: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4057251.stm
Russian Saber Rattling
Another ominous note from Russia - this time a report of a new precision strike missile being developed: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/12/01/missile.shtml Not to sound like a broken record here, but if they aren't a warring nation, why are they building new generation cruise missiles?
Tuesday
Better News, but Real?
There's some "non-bad" news about the economy today in the form of the monthly report on the economy from the Commerce Department. The gist of it is that the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.9%. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041130/economy_3.html The problem, of course, is that early in an inflation, it's really hard to sort out what "constant dollars" are all about, because the numbers used reflect government-generated inflation figures for the calculation of "constant dollars." This means that if you believe the "official" cost of living numbers, then you shouldn't have too difficult a time swallowing these figures.
The jobs figure comes out on Friday, and most of the odds makers are guessing that the unemployment rate will improve about one-tenth of one percent from its current 5.5% to a better 5.4%. You'd think that the dollar would start a major rally with this report, but with oil still around $50 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041130/oil_prices_6.html it's a little early to be kicking off "inflation is whipped" parties just yet.
Moreover, if you are a believe in Dow Theory (where goes Transports, so the Dow soon follows) you might look at the chart over at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=%5EDJT&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EDJI and be tempted to climb aboard expecting a major Dow rally. But the challenge to Dow Theory is that the transports have benefited from jobjacking (and higher imports) more than any other sector and with the dollar falling, that may continue for a while. In other words, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, once again.
China is none too happy about the dollar slide: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/30/content_2275963.htm
Saudi Hype
The Saudi's, ever friendly to the Bush Administration, are jawboning on oil again - saying they will raise production by 37%. Story You are not supposed to figure out that a) there's no additional tanker capacity, let alone enough to hand a 3% increase and b) that refineries are already working at maximums and c) that the Saudis just talk about oil - they're already pumping at limits. After the last 15% increase talk over the past couple of months, you'd expect reporters to wise up - but maybe the current crop is just reporting press release information -- what we used to call the "rip & read" style.
Ukraine Bankruptcy
That's one of the possibilities that leaders are talking about in the wake of failed elections and calls for "straight" elections: Story Just what the impact will be on international money markets of a Ukraine bankruptcy is not clear, but likely little impact.
Corporate Air Safety
We note with interest the story in the NY Post today about the relative safety of corporate jet travel: http://www.nypost.com/business/35433.htm It's likely nothing more than a statistical blip, but still worth thinking about. The faster the plane, the less room for errors.
Speaking of airports, China is about to build a whopping big one: Story.
Commuting Stress:
Commuters have more stress than a fighter pilot in battle? Story No need to convince us, it's caused us to avoid rush hour freeway action in the LA area like the plague.
Fear for Troops
With the Arab Press reporting explosions targeting U.S. troops in Baghdad, http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/15C88317-F209-4459-8D20-B50061560831.htm we are now waiting for a major attack on the Baghdad Airport. That would be the indication that the Arab insurgents are about to close their pinchers around allied forces that have been draw out of Baghdad and into places like Fallujah, http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F0A47D67-7D17-4140-A992-2AEC1CF0624A.htm Mosul, and the southern Sunni areas. We pray to be wrong on this sequence of events and our prayers are with our troops who are there, right or wrong.
Israel Battles Budget
Good coverage at http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=945 today of the battles in Israel over the national budget. The future of the West Bank, and so forth, figures into this.
Monday
Crash Week, or Saved by the Mall?
Well, here we are, Elaine and I are just back from a wonderful adventure with two of her sons up in Phoenix this weekend. Son Wendell did a phenomenal job of the jalapeņo turkey (plus stuffing, plus gravy, plus assorted side dishes, while son Alan showed us a few pointers on the miniature golf course. Elaine kept things organized, although on the trip back to Burbank traffic sucked. Sucked means it took an hour from Coachella to whatever the next wide spot in the road is - about 20 miles. I was reminded how easy it would be to hold 20-million people hostage by just closing off 4-freeways in SoCal, but that's another rant about poor planning.
On the way down the hill from the high desert, we notices a surprisingly small number of cars at (I think it's spelled) Cabazos. We expected more traffic there, but then again, it was more than enough. Not surprisingly, our information observations seem to jive with the "official" big press reports out - namely that Friday was great but by the end of the week, either sanity had set in, or people's already inflated bank card balances had been hit once again: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041128/holiday_shopping_7.html
As for the balance of this week, it's more like a balance of terror than a reasoned economic judgment. On the one hand, the decline of the dollar seems to have paused this evening (Sunday night) while on the other, gold seems quite comfortable holding over $450 and awaiting more downside dollar action. It's like gold is following, not leading.
there's no clear guidance from our two public charts - as the Dow Replay Chart shows the Dow hasn't punched through the old 10,627 bounce high, but the Aggregate Index has technically broken out, but a tweak of the index matching, or just an accounting for the dollar slide could negate that green light for upside action. We're a) caution b) out of the market and c) waiting for the real international money game to clarify first.
We continue our crash warning on the basis of the dollar decline with only two outcomes likely: A snapback rally by the dollar (perhaps based on consumer spending?) and a major market collapse like 1987. I'd be keeping the seat belt tight and the barf bag ready till Christmas week when enough big players are out of town for Chanukah/Christmas that wild fluctuations of the market are less likely in light of seasonal optimism.
Seeds of our Oil Crisis?
As we have been mentioning, with the date November 28th here, the odds of a further shock on the oil price front seem to be increasing and in particular, the developments in the Ukraine's election mess are building in that direction. Story We are sad to see so little attention on the part of democrats to the irregularities in the U.S. elections, but obviously, the Ukraine is a little easier for the Powers That Be to manage than something as messy as the U.S. election hack potential - which was subject of a good write up in the recent Popular Science issue. http://www.popsci.com/popsci/generaltech/article/0,20967,714491,00.html Repeat after me "frat brother fix..."
Another U.S. Corporation - U.S. Treasury
If you didn't follow our contributed piece last week on how major U.S. government agencies are being set up as corporations, you want to be sure to click over to www.urbansurvival.com/lastweek.htm and read up. Then, read this from our intrepid researcher:
"I found another one -
This is time-consuming!!!
UNITED STATES TREASURY / U.S. TREASURY, INC. Incorporation Date 02/08/1990 File No. 2221617 For profit General Delaware Corporation."
Yes, we are planning to write a couple of simple emails. Maybe I'm dumb, but why are all the major government agencies set up as corporations??? One email will go to the Secretary of State of Delaware asking how and WHY it is that all these agencies are taking out corporate personas - isn't the beloved Constitution good enough for the dweebs in charge any more? And for the agents (for whom service is permitted) what about a letter asking for a) corporate minutes as a shareholder, and b) a request for notification of the annual shareholders meeting as required by Delaware law?
Female Whistle Blower
Is it possible that a long awaited web bot forecast about a female whistle blower is coming true? http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=60221 Could be...
Another Japan Quake
This time, it's a 7.1 temblor: http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/29/news/quake.html
Avian Flu - Real or Hype?
Good background on the role and hopes of flu vaccine manufacturers in dealing with the next major flu outbreak: http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3818261
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, People's Economist
Bulldog Editions when noted are the "early editions". Check back later for a more complete update. Bulletins as warranted. Normal byte times are 8:30 AM (or earlier) CDT Monday-Friday. Weekends as the spirit moves us.