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    Updated:  Monday   December 22, 2003
             "News with a twist of money..."

   

What's worth a bunch in a depression? Gold of course!The XAU is another depression fighter many timesIs the depressons here? Check the S&P chart
 

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A Personal Note

All those stories about jobjackings and layoffs became very real for me this past week when the new COO of the software company I'm with informed me that my position would be phased out at the end of the year.  One sort of expects regime change when COO's change, and this time I'm part of the change.  So, if you know of any job openings where an MBA with a great sales track record of both tangibles and intangibles, a prolific writer, and expert in turnarounds is needed, please let me know by clicking here.  I'll be pleased to share my resume.  Thanks!

Saddam's Capture: Patriot II Diversion

Last weekend there was jubilation in the land as one-time Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein was brought before the gleeful media, to much rejoicing and noise-making. A major victory to some, but a sad diversion to others.  Because while Saddam was gobbling up prime time, the real story was stealth passage of Patriot II regs: http://vancouver.indymedia.org/news/2003/12/94248.php.

 

Terror Threat: January 1 or 2?

CNN reports today that federal security experts are warning of unspecified threats of something happening around New Years.  The story at http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/12/19/terror.concerns/index.html.  Here's an interesting one:  Two days after leaving my job in San Francisco, doing a sales turnaround in 2001, the attack against the WTC occurred.  Because my job is being eliminated on December 31, forcing Elaine and I to fall back to our Texas ranch briefly, I think it would be the ultimate irony if the universe were to schedule another terror event a day or two after my next job departure.  It might be a horrible coincidence.  Just the same, I hope the world is unmarred by another terror event after my job ends this time.

 

Banks In Trouble:  Layoffs by the Fed

Job jacking - the theft of U.S. jobs by banks and corporations for lower paid workers offshore - is nothing new.  Nor is deliberately misleading the sometimes "slow-to-get-it" press.  I've illustrated before how a bank will disavow the hiring of foreign workers, but when pressed about using offshore contractors, goes suddenly deaf and dumb.  It is therefore extremely interesting to me that the Federal Reserve is planning layoffs: http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ny--fed-jobcuts1218dec18,0,3856417.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire.  Also on the banking front:  Be sure and read the purported Washington Mutual notice to customers advising no storage of currency or coins in safe boxes is allowed effective immediately (below).  Trial balloon or trend?  We should know in short order.

 

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Let the Auditors Explain?

Two stories have caught our eye today about banks and their auditors.  In one case, the Italian dairy and food business Parmalat apparently doesn't have about $5 billion which supposedly was in a Cayman Islands account.  According to the New York Times this morning, Bank of America is not commenting: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/19/business/19CND-PARMA.html?ex=1072501200&en=e7c2344174e3498f&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE.

 

The other interesting story, from the perspective of auditors will be the series of revelations due to come from 27-year old whiz kid Daniel Gordon, who the New York Post ties to Enron revelations: http://www.nypost.com/business/44112.htm. The bottom line from reading both stories: If you're an auditor, know the client well.

 

Qadhafi and the Video Game Crisis

Libya will renounce weapons of mass destruction and join the peaceful world - that's the headline today as Mohamar Qadhafi goes from international bad boy to semi-saint in 24-hours. I have to admit a certain skepticism when it's reported that Libya's strongman Qadhafi has decided to renounce his years of evil ways and  now wants to join in with the rest of the civilized world.  http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/BD95B3DE-BB06-4F42-904F-83D56068133E.htm.  Qadhafi denouncing the use of nuclear and chemical weapons is surprising to say the least.  But here's the real story: With the U.S. occupying Iraq, and with Tripoli now turning friendly - not setting up Club Med's yet, but who knows? - the world's video game makers will be forced into crisis mode.  I think it was F-15 Strike Eagle that had missions over Libya...and now those are outdated.  Combat over Iraq?  Not likely now with air corridors safe enough for the likes of President Bush - and this weekend, the President of Spain - to fly in for a visits.

 

A marketing fellow like myself might solve the plot problem by simply inventing a new game called "Al Qaida Quest"  The difficulty with this game is that it's virtually certain to end in October of 2004 when (the rumored plan has it) Osama bin Laden will be trotted out in cuffs just in time to win the 2004 presidential election for you-know-who.  From the marketing perspective, that timeline doesn't allow enough time to get the game coded and to market, especially because like everything else in America, it will be manufactured in Asia, which means 60-days for container shipping. 

 

Say!  Here's a great new video game plot:  Let's build a game called Energy Crisis!  We'll build a game where the contestant will be forced to deal with a declining rate of supply of oil. The supply will change every time the game is played.  The object of the game?  Take over as many oil-producing countries as you can before running out of oil.  Then build a fall-back position for your empire developing solar, oil shale, coal, and so forth. Then build a sustainable future (like Sim-City) based on organic farming without the high fossil energy content. But be right about your decisions because if you're wrong, the computer will shut down, indicating in no uncertain terms that you've run out of energy. 

 

It sounds like a pretty interesting game to me, although perhaps ahead of its time:  Besides, we're all going to play it for real anyway.

 

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Friday

Cash in Safe Deposit Boxes Update

Although one bank says it's not involved (an error on our part which we sincerely regret), another reader today faxed in the following which is allegedly from the Washington Mutual Change of Terms he received at his Seattle address:  (Highlighting added to help you find the reason for our questions earlier this week and balance of graphic not shown to conserve bandwidth  ...)

 

 

I have emailed not less than four PR people per their web site for comment, but have not heard back from anyone on why the change.  I'm still wondering if it's Homeland Security rules, insurance, or something else?  More when I hear back from them. 

 

Iraq: A Touch of Anarchy

With the U.S. forces in Iraq becoming more savvy at defending against hit and run guerilla-style attacks on facilities in the green zone,  we see evidence today that the guerillas have changed tactics and are now targeting political parties.  We expect that today's explosion targeting the main Shia group in the country will be one of a growing number of such events: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2030F223-DA03-4C39-8350-10D29090D5D6.htm. The A.P. reports a major militant recruiting operation in Europe has been shut down: http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-europe-iraq-militants,0,1798709.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines

 

Rumsfeld's '84 Iraq Visit

Ever since rumors that Donald Rumsfeld had met with Saddam Hussein in the mid 1980's began circulating on the 'net, there have been many versions of "who said what and when".  Today there's a reasonably detailed explanation in a Washington Post story picked up by the Seattle Times: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001819146_rumsfeld19.html.

 

Watching Kuwait

Sunday there will be a significant gathering of Gulf states leaders in Kuwait.  Al Jazeera reports very right security is planned for the Gulf Cooperation Council gathering: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C5B675CB-6D5B-4159-B97F-4DBBA1D34C52.htm.

 

More Afghan Troops Required   

So says Kofi Annan of the U.N.  http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N18203030.htm. With the exception of a critical oil pipeline route, and the majority of the world's opium poppies, I'll be darned if I can figure out what's worth the fighting for. But those must be enough, huh?  I must be drifting into an isolationist mood, wondering why pay big taxes for wars to give freedom to people who don't seem to be able to organize it themselves.

 

401's Become 3-2-1's?

ABC News reports the number of people walking away from, or simply not getting involved in 401-K programs is increasing http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/Funds/Mutual_funds_CSM_031218.html.  Personally, I've been very careful not to participate in 401-K programs myself.  If you remember, they were introduced with great hoopla about the "tax-free" aspects of the investments, yet when push comes to shove, and as Baby Boomers start retiring - and as we creep up to the edge of the 44-trillion dollar budget deficit - at about the same time as Social Security runs out of money, I just can't convince myself that government will not change the rules on us working (and shortly unemployed) stiffs.  Not like they don't on a regular basis anyway, right?  See how shabbily government has treated retired military personnel for example:  Go in with one set of promises, put in 20-years and see the rules changed when you retire.  If they will do it to an E-8, they'll do it to a retiring worker, I figure.

 

IMF Warns Brits

The International Monetary Fund sees problems ahead for once Great Britain if they don't increase taxes.  http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid72077?source=. Of course you've already see the numbers suggesting that 100% of America's GDP will be devoted to paying interest on national debts within half a dozen years, right?  The IMF is concerned that a number of big important Western countries could "go Argentina" with astounding debt loads compounding away.  But, believing in the Easter Bunny, Santa, Bush economic plans, and the readily available free lunch, people don't want to face the music...

 

Another Depression Marker?

When you get some time, flip over to http://www.aaca.org/autohistory/07.html where you can read about the evolution in the auto industry of the concept of the "annual model."  You'll see that it was largely a GM affair in the mid to late 1920's and then:

"Henry's son, Edsel, was now president of Ford Motor Co. and had been pushing to expand Ford's offerings to meet the GM challenge and wanted more elegant styling. But the Model A was still Henry's. Edsel would get his elegant styling later, in the '30s. Ford was out of production for much of 1927 while the Model A was being readied and GM beat it in sales for the first time.

The Model A was an overnight sensation and Ford recovered the lead in 1928. Henry did not like the new approach GM was taking to styling and annual model changes, but the die was cast. It quickly became apparent the Model A would not be built for 19 years as the Model T had been. GM passed Ford in sales in 1931 and Ford never regained the lead.

In 1932, Ford tried to stem the challenge of established GM and upstart Chrysler by introducing the first low-priced car powered by a V-8 engine. Ford sales improved, but GM was still No. 1.

In 1933, Chrysler Corp. also passed Ford in sales. The sales race was on."

I mention this because the "annual model" change is creeping back into the picture in America as automakers are trying to come up with reasons why you should buy a new car, rather than keep your existing car running.  There's a story today, for example about how Chevrolet is trying pump up sales by introducing 10 new - or redesigned vehicles - this year: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/031218/na_fin_com_us_chevrolet_new_vehicles_4.html.

 

Seen in the longer historical light, we can see the response of the industrial-marketing complex elsewhere when we know what to look for.  For example, I see it in computers, where every .5 GHz of processor speed in computers means my minimal 2.4 GHz box is becoming hopelessly out of date, despite the dual monitors and gobs of software.  I don't have hyper-threading technology, but I somehow stumble through doing one thing at a time.  Similarly, the idea of buying a bed that is good for 10-15 years is out - pushed out by the "new and improved" versions which feature things like water or air-filled inner mattress components, or which tilt, angle, rise, shimmy, shake, and so forth.  I didn't mean to get off and start writing an Inside Report, but it's a trend to be looking for.  Planned obsolescence was the BIG GROWTH mode of business and as we enter consumer saturation, it will be the SURVIVAL mode of business..

 

Blue Crab Blues

If you like Maryland's famous Blue Crabs, look for fewer crabs and higher prices.  Lowest harvest in a quarter century is coming this year: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA675MWDOD.html.  See?  Not having crabs is bad...

 

Cold Orange Juice?

The weather for this weekend looks pretty chilly around our place and to the north of us  in Florida: http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/029.html .  With our impending move to our Texas ranch, we note that Florida will have a high of 65, low 46 on Saturday, while at the ranch it'll be 67/52 on Sunday.

 

Phoenix:  Non-Stop Stops

German carrier Lufthansa is halting non-stop service to Phoenix come February: http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/031219/0503000175_2.html. If someone tries to sell you a restaurant in Phoenix selling sauerbraten to Deutschlanders, change your offer price accordingly.

 

Digging Boston

The "Big Dig" is dug: $14.6 billion.  http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1219/p02s01-ussc.html. When I was a kid in Seattle, I remember thinking "Gee, a million dollars a mile for Interstate 5 construction is sure expensive."  Shows you how old I am. In today's money, inflation along would bump that to $5.983 billion a mile from 1959's pricing. Fat lotta comfort for Boston taxpayers, but hey, the price is the price.

 

Why Bush Won '04

Good story in the NY Post today about fund raising for you-know-who: http://www.nypost.com/business/13878.htm.  We stand with our prediction of six months ago where we declared Bush the winner in '04 - just to make us the first media to do so.  Not that we agree with the vote, mind you, but we wanted to be first to call it.

 

Pssst: "Wanna Buy Guns?"

China steps up weapons sales to China: http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=\ForeignBureaus\archive\200312\FOR20031218i.html. Our question, what's China buying 'em for if they're not planning to use them?

 

Also on the arms front:  Japan is building a missile shield... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3333117.stm.  And should the missile shield fail, Japan is also building a robot which can jog, presumably fast enough to get out of the way of anything incoming: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3330183.stm.

 

Following the Fallen

Remember Kirk Jones?  He's the guy who went over Niagara Falls on October 20th, fell 180 feet and lived to tell the tale. He's now had his day in court:  http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-niagara-falls-survivor,0,2490863.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines and the fine is reportedly $2,260.  If you don't have the calculator handy, that's $12.55 a foot, although the price may be falling.

 

Consumer Info

Interesting new web site dealing with the issues of mortgage servicing fraud is up and worth a scan: http://www.msfraud.org/

 

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Hizzoner Speaks

You may recall our story yesterday about the Republic of Texas and comments of a reader who expressed the thought that while the R/T people were probably right, they might also be a a little whacko.  Well, today we've received an official reply from none other than the Secretary of State of said Republic:

OK, now I have to set some things straight.  Whackos, eh?
 
In 1997, Richard McLaren was trapped into a standoff with state and federal officials by the actions of a couple of guys with him.  All the charges against him were subsequently dropped and he is currently a Prisoner of War.  Even though he had a strategic position and the state and federales were surrounded by Texian nationals and they could have won a contest of blood, he did not go that route.  Instead, what he did was get a battlefield treaty, lovingly called the May Third Treaty, that is a ceasefire with the United States.  That treaty is open recognition of the Republic of Texas and the 10th Congress, and it has withstood a number of court cases.  I will be happy to provide documentation.  The treaty can be read here: http://the-republic-of-texas.org/images/May_3_1.jpg and here: http://the-republic-of-texas.org/images/May_3_2.jpg
 
Texas has also filed a Certificate of Eminent Domain with 160 nations worldwide.  The text can be found here: http://the-republic-of-texas.org/emdom.htm
 
While it is circumstantial, even the Texas legislature acknowledges the Republic's borders.  You may recall over the summer there was a battle over redistricting that led to a bunch of democrats to running away twice.  The first time they ran to Oklahoma JUST outside of Texas territory (the Oklahoma panhandle).  The second time they ran to Albuquerque and SPECIFICALLY took up residence in a hotel on the west side of the Rio Grande (JUST outside of Texas territory).  Furthermore, the Texas capitol (now being held in trust by the Texas Department of Public Safety - the diluted modern version of the Rangers - for the day the Republic) has the Seal of the Republic on the floor of the rotunda, not the state's.  As if that is not enough, the ONLY Constitution of Texas on file in the Library of Congress is the original 1836 Constitution of the Republic (the state has had three constitutions, none of which have ever been approved by the US Congress as required by law).  The Republic of Texas has three suits pending against the United States in the ICC for war crimes, violation of contract (Texas was never paid for Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, and Wyoming - settlement is $4 trillion in silver including interest), and Violation of the Geneva Convention (the US has 7 Texas POWs currently incarcerated).  Lastly, even the state requires that the Texas flag (the Republic's battle flag) fly at the same height as the US flag.  Name all the other states that CAN do that.
 
As for money, of course only gold and silver are legal tender.  Amongst ourselves that is all we use.  The government will mint your raw silver and gold into coin, if you like.  However, all gold and silver is legal tender provided it is assayed, weighed and stamped by a mint.  The only paper money allowed are the liberty dollars that are actually warehouse receipts for gold and silver coin (http://www.norfed.org/).
 
You and your readers would actually be amazed at far along things really are.  Of course, you won't get the info from the controlled press.  Our passports have been accepted in 17 nations, including the United States.  We have an ambassador in London, we have consuls in Asia, and we are in the process of negotiating treaties with 3 nations.  We are also petitioning for a high-level domain designation of ".rt" for domestic servers.
 
So...what was that about whackos?
 
Regards,
Bernard Grover
Secretary of State
The Republic of Texas

We also heard from citizens of the Republic who pointed out that the first batch of 5,000 8-gram .9999 fine Republic of Texas silver coins sold out and that another batch will be forthcoming soon. Keep checking in with http://www.the-republic-of-texas.org/. for the latest.

 

We're watching this because the R/T people are committed to peaceful change.  Radical change - and a huge back debt at stake - but trying to get there peacefully nevertheless.  As Elaine & I are soon to be living in the contested Territory, we seem to have unwittingly bought dual citizenship. If that back debt was divvied up among legal residents, we'd be debt free and retired. With a similar movement toward real money (silver and gold backed) in Colorado (part of which may be Republic of Texas land, which extended all the way to what is now Wyoming at one point) and Nevada, we see the possibility of a new country within a country or perhaps an autonomous region

 

We look at how the Soviet Empire fell apart due to divergent interests of regional units, and wonder if the same kind of peaceful evolution into diverse economic groups might evolve.  I remember a book from 20-30 years back with a title something like "The Seven Countries of North America."  Prescient?.

 

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Thursday

Retraction:

Attn: Mr. Duncan Wilson

Attorney for Venture Bank

 

Last week a reader had reported to me that he had received a notice that his bank had sent him a notice of change of terms that effective January 1st, he would not be able to keep gold in his account at Venture Bank.  This readers' report was erroneous and is hereby retracted.  I made efforts to contact another of the banks which had reportedly sent out such notices and have not heard back from them.

 

I have removed the erroneous material from my web site and apologize for the errant report.  I would urge anyone who has acted on this erroneous report to return with full confidence to their previous banking relationship.  If you can send me the name of the specific customer you mention, I will write personally to him.

 

Sincerely,

 

George Ure

 

Dollar Woes Continue

If you want to buy a Euro, it will cost you nearly $1.25 in U.S. currency today.  Not only is the dollar down again today (see: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031218/markets_forex_5.html ) but the price of oil has bubbled up to fresh nine-month highs: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031218/markets_oil_4.html.  Then there's the dollar problems of California.  Here, it's not that the dollar is losing value, so much as there just aren't enough of them available fast enough.  The answer?  Governor Arnold is contemplating declaration of a money emergency to sidestep the legislature in order to sidestep layoffs: http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/7968060p-8904925c.html.

 

The decline of the dollar is perhaps best taken in a longer context.  There's a good overview of the historical context of our present global position in the Monthly Review at http://www.monthlyreview.org/1203duboff.htm.

 

The Next Middle East War?

U.S. citizens and diplomatic families are being advised by the State Department to leave Saudi Arabia because of escalating terror concerns. Good report in Newsday this morning with background on the escalating tensions in country:

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-us-saudi-pullout,0,4816890.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines.

 

Historical Revisionists?

Interesting article in the Washington Post this morning about how the administration is scrubbing the web to put themselves in a little brighter light: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A9821-2003Dec17?language=printer

 

Depression Marker?

The long term drought which has effected much of the central part of the country may not have grown to Dust Bowl proportions associated with the last Depression, but there's enough lack of rains to cause concern: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAO9APJCOD.html

 

Republic of Texas Money?

One of our contacts in the Republic of Texas movement reports the group is planning to mint 8 gram silver coins.  Whether that would run afoul current Treasury controls will be interesting to watch.  Meantime, a reader writes:

 Thanks for the blurb about the republic of Texas.  Those guys are really whacko but their point, and yours is true. 
 Allow me to tell you about something I am seeing in America.  After a long carrier in Naval  aviation and disillusion with retirement I, about five years ago, became the manager of a video store in a large mall in one of the most affluent sections of Dallas.  Amazingly, daily I talk with very well off people who are sick of what America has become.  They tell me that they are looking for somewhere else to live and raise their kids.  They are willing to walk away from it all just for a little peace, the chance to take a breath, to hold their kids, to play catch.
   I have never considered myself a wise man, just a worn out old throttle jock. Perhaps you can tell me why we remain so silent.  Why have we never, after the layoff of 10K people at one company just to show a one time up tick on a quarterly report, gone to the bastards house and tore it down?  Why do we not demand that our own government represent us instead of riding rough shod over us?  Why has the 60's generation become so complacent?

Another reader writes in:

re: Texas Republic
 
I like the idea of change, something isn't working in the public sector.
 
I've been talking up a grass roots rebellion that may at least change rhetoric, and perhaps actions.
 
Everybody should vote 3rd party.  Libertarian, Green, Constitution, peace and Freedom; anything but R&D.  No vote at all is not a protest, its a lay down to special interests.  If everyone who can vote, votes, and expresses their peculiar taste with a third party vote, we may get some action and real debate.
 
Clinton does welfare reform, Bush does tariffs.  Each argues his cause then does the opposite.  Why?  'Cause its easy to get the swing votes to reverse themselves.  Then they show some action to buy votes. 
 
Government re-elects itself.  10%+ of voters are government employees, maybe another 15% are indirectly supported by government programs, more are greed transfer recipients.  Add the fact that these people will show up to vote, and half the other qualified voters don't bother.  If the "don't bother" crew votes a bit of third party, we can scare the incumbents into listening.  Maybe.
 
Vote 3rd party, any third party!  Get a message to the Demon-ublicans they can't miss.

Wednesday

How Long Ago Did Bush Know?

An Iranian news outlet is making an interesting claim this morning that George Bush met Saddam Hussein during his surprise Thanksgiving visit to Iraq:  http://www.iribnews.com/Full_en.asp?news_id=194533.  If the Western media pick up on this, it will be interesting to see what evidence is there to back up the story.  We remember the Jessica Lynch case, where the Middle East media (and then the BBC) got it right about military staging...not that this is the case here, of course.  But the allegation is there... 

 

al Jazeera reports today that Halliburton has picked up another contract for work in Iraq - as the Halliburton continues to make out extremely well on discretionary spending: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/40D54074-B324-4611-869F-8334214CFF92.htm.

 

Then too, look at how the U.N. is being blasted today by the Iraqi Foreign Minister.  Of course we won't remind you that Iraq doesn't have a constitution yet, so whoever this guy is was appointed by...oh, let's not go there.  Just read his rap for yourself over at http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/16/international/middleeast/16CND-NATION.html?ex=1072242000&en=2aedd578f1c193c5&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE.

 

Blair Says Labs Found!

At least 22 people were killed by a bomb in Baghdad today: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8DAFDD4A-014C-4692-9C32-B285E4AEDA16.htm. But that's not the story in that part of the world.  This one is:  Tony Blair is hinting that real evidence of weapons of mass destruction has been found!  http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7B11D5F7-5E20-423D-9D57-89FAC4A14A24.htm.  No confirmation of the story yet, but again, it's out there.

 

But Where's Bin Laden?

While Saddam Hussein's arrest fueled a pretty good rally in the market yesterday, our work still suggests that by the end of the week we could close around 10,078 to complete a perfect retracement.  One thing that hangs over the markets is the fact that the capture of Hussein has nothing to do with al Qaida or the rest of the Jihad. Search update at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3325345.stm

 

al Qaida's Strategy

I don't claim to be much of a chess player, but there is something going on, it would appear, which demands we pay very close attention to Pakistan.  Why?  because of the attempt on the life of the president there: We learn from reading the BBC that the attack on President Musharraf was carried out using very sophisticated devices: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3319497.stm and we pick up from other sources that it was only the anti-jamming electronics in the vehicle that kept the bombs from going on and killing him: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA0A7IABOD.html.  The reason that we're zooming in on the weekend assassination attempt is this:  If the president was killed, there would be a power vacuum in Pakistan and with U.S. forces spread thin, the militant wing of Islam would have a chance to grab power.  Especially with Osama reportedly up in the hills somewhere.  If that were the case, seizing power in Pakistan would give the terrorists access to Pakistan's fledgling, but viable nuclear program.  If you picture a world where militants could control the straits in Turkey and could use nuclear blackmail, you don't get a pleasant place. However ugly the picture, that seems like a reasonable bet on the future direction of events, so we will continue to closely monitor developments in those countries.  We can expect more bombings in Turkey and more attempts on Musharraf in Pakistan.

 

Dusty Old Planet...

If you get a clear night (and it's warm enough) you might take that junior Mount Palomar that you bought the kids and point it toward Mars where an unusual global dust storm may be brewing: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/09jul_marsdust.htm.   We continue to wait patiently for our anticipated return of sun related issues in a few days.  The big sunspot group on the back side of the sun should be visible about December 22.

 

Snow Job

The Bush administration plans to allow increase snow mobile use in Yellowstone National Park has been turned down by a judge who says nope, Clinton-era rules hold: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA12NI6BOD.html.  Yogi Bear will be pleased...

 

Banner Poll Results

I asked yesterday morning about the possibility of adding a banner to the top of this page (read by about 1.4 million people per year) and the answer is 179 people said they wouldn't mind as long as there were none of those damn pop-up type ads.  Only 18 said that they really found the banner ads offensive.  If you're in web site design that means only 8.6% find banners seriously objectionable if you have interesting content... (I may not get around to answering all 197 responses, sorry...)

 

Isolated SARS Case

In Taiwan.  Researcher.  Not using recommended procedures says the WHO: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGARY8DABOD.html.

 

Still Down

The dollar hovers near lows today: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031217/markets_forex_2.html

 

The Republic of Texas Update

I don't know if I mentioned that I've been invited to attend organizing meetings of the Republic of Texas.  This group says, in simple terms, that the present state government of Texas was not properly constituted and that many Texans believe that by participating in the onerous state tax system - and the federal taxes on top of that, real patriots in the Lone Star State are being force to participate in what amounts to a legal plundering of the people's wealth.  Background story at http://cbs11tv.com/siteSearch/local_story_350175153.html. The problem for Texas separatists is one common to people all over the country;  How do people seek legislative redress when our legislatures and congress are dominated by special interests and PAC's?

 

The answer is to pool resources and get someone elected to office, and then another and another. Lead by example.  Turn off the TV and help the neighbor build his garage.  Turn off the TV and help the kids with homework.  Kiss off the unpaid overtime.  Turn away from the hollow promise of a shinier, new and improved next big thing.

 

The two-party system is more like a one-party system lately because of people.  Both Republicans and Democrats speak of "policy issues" but who's talking about the drivers of policy like job jacking, world hunger, our bankrupt currency, confiscatory law enforcement, making plants illegal to support the distiller and pharmaceutical cartels - challenging even vitamins now if you can believe the gall -  and solving oil depletion through conservation?  What about the battle between corporate personas versus real people?  Who is speaking against a system of corporate tyranny that requires both parents to work and farm out the kids?  Who speaks for the new paradigm and new conduct required in a resource constrained world?

 

Find - or become - that party, and you'll find America's future.  But someone better find it fast, because militant Islam is using those social drivers as rallying points and that's, as best we can tell,  the fastest growing religion - and political system - in the world today.

 

Even if you don't agree with their party, the folks in Texas are at least trying.

 

Tuesday

What Was Yesterday?

There was not one mention of it in the conventional media that I saw.  Worse yet, it was pointed out to my by our Canadian bureau headed by newshound Tim B.  OK, what was it?  The Anniversary of the Signing of the Bill of Rights.  December 15, 1791.  Seems to us that when people don't remember it, they're not likely to miss it when it's gone...which, one could argue, is happening at an ever increasing rate.

 

Fed Numbers Due

Industrial Capacity and Utilization is due out this morning at 9:15 Eastern.  Look for it to be bright - lightly sautéed perhaps, but bright nevertheless.  In the NY Post this morning, a good piece by John Crudele on the impact of Saddam's capture and the harsh reality of Wal-Mart coming in at the low end of forecast: http://www.nypost.com/business/13522.htm

 

Saddam Had Already been Captured!

That's the conclusion of Debka.com and this group of news analysts has good reason to believe that Saddam was being held by others who were hoping to negotiate this release for big bucks.  The story at http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=743.

 

al Qaida Targeting S Korea?

A report today out of South Korea says that al Qaida was looking at targets in South Korea recently.  If true there are many possible implications, not of which is pretty: http://sg.news.yahoo.com/031216/1/3goy2.html

 

Guess What Rhymes?

Buck and suck.  The dollar hits another low today in Euro trading which as we expected has pushed gold and if the trend continues, we may be a blast off to the $415 area within the week: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031216/markets_forex_3.html.

 

Lehman Follows Dell

You make have picked up that Dell recent announced that it would be pulling back its customer service operations from India because of frequent complaints from customers in the U.S.  Now it looks like Lehman will pull back, too: http://www.nypost.com/business/13529.htm.  You might remember 5-6 weeks ago I wrote to Fleet Bank and asked them for comment and they said they had no customer service employees in India, but I never got a reply to the follow up question.  "Do you employ third parties to work on your behalf who are in India?"  Never heard back from them.  Am I surprised?

 

Would You Mind a Banner?

With unemployment looming, I've been advised that because so many people read this site that I could probably pick up a "free" $500-700 per month by putting a banner ad at the top of the free daily updates here.  Out of courtesy, I'll ask:  Do you find them offensive?  Or, do you just ignore them if you're not interested.  Cast your vote:  Click (polling closed)  or click (polling closed)  Thanks

 

1.42857 Commandments Per Judge

You might recall that the Chief Justice of Alabama, Roy Moore was ousted because he refused to remove a 5,300 pound 10 Commandments monument from the state capitol. The latest on the lottery to pick ex-jurists to hear the case is at http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA5NURT9OD.html.  I  see why the court ordered the removal of the monument in 2002: 

I can't remember the last time I was in a Church. But I'm not worried about it because I've always held it's what folks do the other 6-days of the week that matters. If I were to instruct these seven Alabama jurists who will hear the appeal, it would be this. 

"Don't just decide on whether the statue goes, but decide what to put in it's place.  If you find against Moore, you're obligated to come up with a better set of rules to live by.  Take it from any other religion or source you want.  But Moore's issue is not about selling religion so much as it's about reminding us which stars to steer by."

We'll be watching for the verdict.

Monday

But the War Goes On...

Blasts killed 9 this morning in Baghdad, a grim reminder that it probably wasn't Saddam Hussein running the show over there.  Details at http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/05A1FB0C-9BCB-4BAE-8E2E-148640C4A763.htm.  Meantime, on the Art Bell show last night, it sounded like about 90% of the all-night radio audience thought the best thing for Saddam would be a trial by his countrymen in Iraq. But it looks like an independent tribunal is the best he'll get -- al Jazeera has a report at http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/CC95D495-E992-42B5-A9B6-CCBCA1A26DEB.htm.   Interestingly, there was an attack overnight against American forces is Kuwait, too: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3319121.stm.

 

Saddam's Value:

Looks like Saddam's capture will be worth about 150 Dow points, judging by futures action.  Anyone interested can figure out that his capture will mean an increase in worth of 1.5% of global market cap or so.  Not that it changes any of our other issues, like the falling dollar, but it slows the descent for a while.  Who would have ever thought:  Saddam Hussein would save Christmas?

 

Saddam's Life

Worth a plug nickel?  That'd may be be worth more than the life of the ex-two-bit-dictator. Why?  He may know too much.  While the official line is that he will face trial or tribunal  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3318775.stm , we still wonder if he will really make it to trial. Our bets would be on a suicide in his cell or a suicide of some variety to make him disappear.

 

Big Rally Today?

While its possible we could see a two or three day rally off the news that Saddam has been captured, we look for limited upside beyond a pop.  See charts below. The bottom line is that we still have dollar problems, Osama on the lamb, and a showdown with Islamists to cope with.

Best Guess a weekly close around 10,078 or a moon shot toward 10,600+ for a 75% Fibo bounce.

 

Ripping Off the Web

A couple of bored teenagers and a computer gets you what?  A $160-million dollar net fraud case: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E15C4827-D3A7-4012-A7CE-7B2D3ABDA8C8.htm

 

Other Side of the Flu Case

Perhaps no other story has gotten so much reaction (pro and con) as my comments last week that Elaine and I had made a personal choice not to get flu shots, based in part on my allergy to anything with mercury in it.  Here's a note from a reader which was typical of the "pro flu shot" view:

Please correct your erroneous and highly irresponsible statement that

those who had flu vaccinations have a 10X increased risk of getting

Alzheimer's. The exact opposite is the case. Here is the truth of the

matter:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov:80/entrez/

 

Verreault R, Laurin D, Lindsay J, De Serres G. Past exposure to

vaccines and subsequent risk of Alzheimer's disease. CMAJ. 2001 Nov

27;165(11):1495-8

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that changes to the immune system

could be a factor in age-related conditions such as Alzheimer's

disease. Our objective was to examine the association between past

exposure to conventional vaccines and risk of Alzheimer's disease.

METHODS: We analyzed data from a representative community sample of

subjects 65 years of age or older participating in the Canadian Study

of Health and Aging, a prospective cohort study of dementia. Screening

and clinical evaluations were done at both baseline and follow-up. Past

exposure to vaccines was assessed at baseline by means of a

self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: Of the 4392 eligible subjects

who were cognitively unimpaired and for whom vaccine information was

available at baseline (in 1991-1992) and who completed follow-up 5

years later (in 1996-1997), 527 were diagnosed as having cognitive

impairment or dementia other than Alzheimer's disease and were excluded

from these analyses. Of the remaining subjects, 3682 were cognitively

unimpaired at follow-up and 183 were newly diagnosed as having

Alzheimer's disease. After adjustment for age, sex and education, past

exposure to vaccines against diphtheria or tetanus, poliomyelitis and

influenza was associated with lower risk for Alzheimer's disease (odds

ratio [OR] 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27-0.62; OR 0.60, 95%

CI 0.37-0.99; and OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.54-1.04 respectively) than no

exposure to these vaccines. INTERPRETATION: Past exposure to vaccines

against diphtheria or tetanus, poliomyelitis and influenza may protect

against subsequent development of Alzheimer's disease.

As I told the reader, I was extremely careful to note that I was not giving anyone medical advice, and further, the timeframe of this study is different than the other research I quoted.  Still, in the interests of being completely informed, here's the other side of the decision for you to mull over.

 

Another Microbiologist Mystery Death

The web bots sniffed out this one:  A 45 year old microbiologist studying cruise ship viruses fell victim to a hit-and-run driver last week.  The story -  getting not too much attention - is in the Houston Chronicle at http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/2290009.

If you haven't yet heard about the extraordinary number of microbiologists who have been killed, here's a good backgrounder: http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/deadbiologists.html.

Two Notable Web Sites

The Internet is certainly a multi-purpose tool. Sort of like the electronic version of a Leatherman (which is the coolest of stocking stuffers, BTW).  Besides the regular political and financial sites out there, here are two news ones that have caught our eye recently.  One is Roy Disney's site, which is called www.savedisney.com.  On it, he talks about what he sees as dangers to Disney's future.

The other one - and you'll need Flash installed to see it - is the safe meats site www.meatrix.com.   Both sites are interesting uses: fighting an incumbent board of directors, and pressing a particular food/eating viewpoint. The Meatrix is highly entertaining...

 

News From Elliott Wave International

 

 

On to the Charts!

 

Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it. And always remember:

 

△ ≠ Ω but, then again, it might 

 

George Ure

depression, economy, 1929, crash, recession, unemployment    

 

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All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted