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Friday, June 4, 2004
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Job Report: BS?
Whether you believe the latest numbers from BLS or not, it's interesting to note today - on the heels of a stronger than expected report - who the believers are and who the non-believers are. Count among the believers, people who are still pouring money into common stocks - and as I write this, it's amusing to see that the Dow is up around 60 points or so. On the other hand, non-believers are those overseas heathens who have dropped the value of the dollar on the forex bourses. http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040604/cd4f007b63954025f251f93806e5ed25_1.html
A few comments on specifics of the report - my comments in blue:
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Despite all the hype, things are where they were a year ago. The May increase in payroll employment follows gains of 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March (as revised). Besides, if the numbers were not good, the government would find an excuse to "revise them" because it's an election year. Job growth in May again was widespread (except where you and I are) , as increases continued in construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries. We're going to make a fine economy out of selling refi'ed homes to one another and working at the local burger joint.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in May, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent. The unemployment rate has been either 5.6 or 5.7 percent in each month since December 2003. The unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult women (4.8 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites (5.0 percent), blacks (9.9 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.0 percent)--were little changed in May. The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.2 percent, not seasonally ad- justed. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Moreover, the teenage unemployment rate is where the real pop was...unemployment among 16-19 year olds is down from 18.1 percent a year ago to 17.4 percent today. So the gains are a little more illusory than real. These are not high paid real jobs...
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total employment was 138.8 million in May, and the employment-population ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--remained at 62.2 percent. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.9 per- cent for the fourth consecutive month. (See table A-1.)
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
The number of persons who were marginally attached to the labor force was 1.5 million in May, about the same as a year earlier.
Well, yes and no. You see, the number of people not in the labor force is a little more slippery because not all the people who wind up use of unemployment bennies show up in the numbers. Moreover, the present A-12 - alternative measures of labor underutilization numbers - the U-6 table that shows engineers flipping burgers, for example, remains stuck at 9.3 percent... and that's after the mysterious disappearance of folks with no benefits left.
Still, no reason to be highly skeptical, unless you click over to http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t10.htm and read that actual jobs in production occupations dropped, which makes the claim of an increase in manufacturing sound hollow (transportation and material moving was up, but actually making things was down) and the increase in management is more likely due to all those work-at-home with your computer scams than a real increase in serious big company managements.
We're also impressed with the virtual disappearance from the reports of any mention of government employment levels. It's refreshing, isn't it, to know that we can trust our government to operate completely with our best interests at heart and therefore we unworthy voters need not concern ourselves about things like government spending.
Of, as my colleague Dr. Pete Markiewicz of www.indiespace.com notes:
Holy cow! Talk about dis-information!
1. The Yahoo Finance report today claims that the current additions to payrolls have recovered *all* the jobs lost since 2001. Yup, they're all back. Of course, the unemployment rate is significantly higher, but all jobs are *all back* so everything's OK! No comment about the downsizing of jobs - people losing high-paid jobs for low ones. Business Week's article on the working poor ignored. Budget deficits, trade imbalances, huge consumer debt ignored. Happy days are here again!
2. Several reports about how OPEC is raising oil production. However, the actual story is that the OPEC producers are raising production ceilings - and they're already pumping at these ceilings. Almost no extra oil is actually going to be pumped.
No More Oil...
At least that's the bottom line - and Dr. Pete is not wrong. After all the hype, OPEC's production ceiling doesn't mean a drop more oil: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBJ5M1F2VD.html
Canton Bummer
Folks in Ohio have to be bummed today with word that Maytag is cutting 20% of its salaried workforce to make ends meet: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBKN2GE2VD.html Of course with the big jobs increases in the country, it's no big deal, right? Right?
Gestapo Housing Office
Here's a dandy - the government is going to starting running names through a computer system when you want to buy a home to see if you're a terrorist - or worse, a suspected terrorist - which means if they even think you might be, you may not be able to buy a home: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5131685/site/newsweek/
Russian Bombing
We read stories like this one at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3776797.stm and wonder if it's extremist religious groups...
Pope and Bush Huddle...
Iraq is the topic: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/810353C4-F203-43C5-B88B-D1317064F9B8.htm
On the Road Again...
Elaine and I will head out this afternoon - with Phoenix hitting 110 this afternoon, we will be rolling East toward our next adventure. If you're a hand radio operator, listen for me between 14.200-14.230 MHZ USB. Call sign is AC7X/mobile. This afternoon between the top of the hour and five past... We ordered a 6 KW diesel generator for the ranch yesterday. Come by Monday and I will have our suppliers for dehydrated food and generators up...
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Thursday
Real Meteor Update: Surveillance Cam Images
Whether the reports of a meteor from a fellow going by the name Aussie Bloke and happening near Grover's Mill, NJ recently were accurate (Remember where Orson Wells set War of he Worlds?) is not nearly so interesting as what happened in the past day on the meteor front.
First off, a Seattle radio station was apparently hoaxed by someone who claimed to be an astronomer with the University of Washington. The caller told the station that the meteor had impacted near the Washington coast. But wait. Turns out that was a hoax, and the Associated press, which carried the story had to run a retraction.
But does that mean there was no meteor? Quite the contrary. It turns out that "impact report" was either a hoaxer OR a brilliantly executed disinformation campaign to get people confused into blowing off meteor reports as non-events. But before you blow off the meteor, go look at the KOMO-TV (Channel 4, ABC affiliate in Seattle) which has compiled some great pictures from security cameras that show you that the meteor over the Seattle area last night was truly a "daylight level" event: http://www.komotv.com/news/story.asp?id=31552 I'd also like to thank Fisher Broadcasting for their great coverage of the story. (I wonder if my old news chasing buddy from the 70's & early 80's, Bryan Johnson is still around up there?)
If there's anything to the hype about the next few weeks, we should know soon enough. The meteor that caused the daylight level event last night is estimated to have been no bigger than a basketball, so you can imagine the kind of display we could get with hundreds of small objects entering earth's atmosphere...
Flash!
Our Naval Ship Movement Story Exactly Right!
Perhaps they were going to release it anyway, but the Department of Defense has just released the following story at
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=13621Seven Carrier Strike Groups Underway for Exercise “Summer Pulse 04”
Story Number: NNS040603-02 Release Date: 6/3/2004 11:40:00 AM
Special release from the U.S. Department of Defense
WASHINGTON (NNS) -- The Department of Defense announced June 2 that this summer, simultaneous deployment of seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs) will demonstrate the ability of the Navy to provide credible combat power across the globe by operating in five theaters with other U.S., allied and coalition military forces.
“Summer Pulse 04” will be the Navy’s first exercise of its new operational construct, the Fleet Response Plan (FRP). FRP is about new ways of operating, training, manning, and maintaining the fleet that results in increased force readiness and the ability to provide significant combat power to the President in response to a national emergency or crisis.
Beginning this week and continuing through August, the Navy will exercise the full range of skills involved in simultaneously deploying and employing carrier strike groups around the world. Summer Pulse 04 will include scheduled deployments, surge operations, joint and international exercises, and other advanced training and port visits.
Under the FRP construct, the Navy can provide six CSGs in less than 30 days to support contingency operations around the globe, and two more CSGs can be ready in three months to reinforce or rotate with initially responding forces, to continue presence operations in other parts of the world, or to support military action in another crisis. Summer Pulse 04 will exercise the logistics and shore infrastructure necessary to execute a large scale surge operation, stress the operational concepts in the Navy’s Sea Power 21 strategy, and improve Navy interoperability with numerous allies and coalition partners, as well as other U.S. military forces.
The seven aircraft carriers involved in Summer Pulse 04 will include: the Norfolk-based USS George Washington (CVN 73) CSG and the San Diego-based USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) CSG, both currently deployed, and Yokosuka, Japan-based USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63). The Mayport, Fla.-based USS John F Kennedy (CV 67) CSG will begin a combined and joint exercise early this month, followed by a scheduled overseas deployment. The Norfolk-based USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) CSG will conduct a scheduled training exercise followed by overseas pulse operations with the Norfolk-based USS Enterprise (CVN 65) CSG, beginning early this month. USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) will conduct operations in the U.S. Northern Command and U.S. Southern Command theaters during the ship’s interfleet transfer from Norfolk, Va., to its Pacific Fleet homeport of San Diego.
The near-simultaneous deployment of seven carrier strike groups provides the Navy and the joint combatant commanders an opportunity to exercise the FRP while maintaining the ability to respond to crises around the globe, enhance regional security and relationships, meet combatant commander requirements including forward presence, and demonstrate a commitment to allies and coalition partners. Summer Pulse 04 is scheduled to conclude in August.
For more information on the Summer Pulse 04 events and to schedule coverage opportunities, please contact Fleet Forces Command media office at (757) 836-3600.
For more news from the Department of Defense, go to www.defenselink.mil .
For more news from around the fleet, visit the Navy NewsStand at www.news.navy.mil
We note that this story did not reference the Lincoln which left Puget Sound a week ago, nor does it explain the other details we have been holding back on, such as why are ports like Olympia/Nisqually Washington and Crescent City reported loading on shelters and vehicles - precisely the kind of thing that you'd want to have around if something were about to happen. We tie all this in to our previous reports and now the CIA Director quitting, and you get an odd (if not alarming) number of coincidences. See big Fireball in the Sky story below.
Keys to watch for next:
Abandoning the International Space Station.
Movement of high level leaders around June 15-20th
Closures of Caves and other "safe" areas.
And from a well positioned source:
"I am Informed that" Snowball net "is a Classified Data sharing and Monitoring network concerning Comets, Meteors and Asteroids. Really High classification level!Also have been told that its Encryption Level 28! Also Shadow Government has Been Activated and are Positioned in their Respective Locations. This ties in with Tenet's resignation. Heads up".
An still another reader contributes this "missing piece":
George, In regards to the Summer Pulse 04 operation by the Navy, it is interesting that this letter, TigerCruise_Cancel.jpg, (see http://www.spear.navy.mil/gw/TigerCruise.htm if the attached jpg doesn't make it) indicates that the USS George Washington was planning to hold adventure courses for the kids of sailors during the Summer but unexpectedly had to cancel. According to the following article, Summer Pulse 04 operation was planned back in December, but this just doesn't wash given that the Tiger Cruise cancellation letter dated June 1, indicates a change in plan occurred over the past week.
The Washington meteor is the third meteor events in the past few weeks. There was one a couple of weeks ago in Arkansas (my in-laws heard the "boom" from that meteorite and it did make the local news) and another one in NJ covered in the local news.
If the Navy is not concerned about a major meteor(s) strike, what I don't understand is why the abrupt change in naval activity. Someone had to have been monitoring this (as indicated by the Aussie Bloke story) and plans should have been made by the military months in advance so that this recent activity wouldn't have looked so anomalous. There is still something missing from this picture in my opinion. The next few weeks should be very interesting.
Is this what you would write about an operation planned since last December?
OPEC's Move
As we might have expected, OPEC announced today that it would raise its production slightly, from present levels to 2-millions barrels a day more now and another half million barrels per day in August. That's less than the markets expected and as a result they are dropping today: http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040603/04a2915eeb6f8beea8f9b49e15eda0b4_1.html But behind the OPEC move is one glaring fact and one sinister problem. The glaring fact is that the U.S. doesn't have as much influence over OPEC as SUV owners might wish and today's move had more to do with keeping Middle East families in power through their investments in the West, which would be damaged should markets fall too rapidly. The other point is that increasing production to absolute no-holds-barred can't really drop oil prices much because the world's tanker fleet is now the point of constriction. Thus, if you wanted something to worry about, you'd be more concerned about a coordinated al Qaida attack on a dozen oil tankers, or four U.S. refineries, more than getting focused on OPEC's output quotas. They all fudge on their production numbers anyway...
Big Meteor
OK, you can be skeptical about all the rumored preparations for something big to happen around June 19th or 20th. But no denying this meteor report carried by CNN overnight: http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/West/06/03/meteorite.washington.ap/index.html Not that we're worried, but we have multiple cases of 12 gauge shells coming from www.cheaperthandirt.com that will arrive with our freeze dried year's worth of food before the appointed date. Not that the world will end, but I figure 2,400 calories per day freeze dried food is a better investment than any of the Dow stocks right now if you think about what's going up faster. Here in Phoenix (which we leave tomorrow morning) the temps today will hit 110+ which is warmer than most crops like.
George,I was reading some of your links last night (Aussie Bloke) before going to bed. I live in the Puget Sound area. For some reason, I woke up early, before 3am. I laid in bed with my eyes open in the dark when the window lit up as if it were daylight outside. This lasted for about 5 seconds. I at first thought it was the motion light but that stays on for 5 minutes. I went to the window but didn't see anything. It was later when the news came on that the reports started flooding in to the local news. I will be interested to see what the "official" version becomes. http://www.kirotv.com/news/3376872/detail.html
Good report... when you see things that are out of the ordinary, send them along by using the News Tip link, at left.
Naval Movements
From a reader...
"I read a report from rueters just after the Iraqi war broke out. It essentially claimed that two freight ships left Iraqi ports in the days leading up to either the last set of weapons examinations or the war itself, I can’t quite remember. These ships refused to fly their ‘country of origin flag’ and also refused to be hailed by radio transmissions. Both of these contravene international maritime law. The story assumed that their was some sinister motive (nasty weapons / technology) but of course, that’s just speculation. Their movement had been tracked, although they seemed to be going round in circles, rather large ones though. The article reported that they set anchor near ports belonging to countries in the ‘axis of evil’, notably Yemen. Sorry I can’t remember more specifically. Although as it was released by rueters I thought it has at least some credibility."
Yeah, that was from multiple sources, not just Reuters at the time. It was also carried by the BBC and others and it was about a flotilla reported at up to 15 ships that were thought to be part of either Saddam's army or al Qaida. The fear that they were loaded with weapons was played up. However, it's hard telling whether the story had any basis in fact, or whether it was an "embedded" story to which up war fever here in the U.S. The story dropped from site, although the last reports were that there were ships of questionable origin out "there" someplace. No closure on the story that I recall.
Tenet Quits
CIA Boss throws in the towel: http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/06/03/tenet.resigns/index.html Our question is what does he know and also, where is he planning to go now?
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Wednesday
Surprises in the Mail
Elaine and I went out to a great dinner last night and Someone-or-other and Charlies last night here in Phoenix where will be will be until tomorrow or Friday. The mailbag has gotten kind of full, so here are some snips that you will find of interest.
"Two weeks ago the Feds from HHS came into our office looking for a fallback space in case of 'attacks on multiple large cities'. We were pretty shocked, they put us down as #3 on their list for a staff of 20 in an emergency. Very little notice on this. Their #4 spot was Warm Springs Oregon, even though the Fed building is in Portland."
Oh? This is especially troubling in light of our coverage of the naval movements. This does not bode well - and this note, from a person I have reason to believe they didn't just make this one up. Then there's our continuing watch on the apparent position of the sun. Something just doesn't seem right:
"We did a very precise daylight analysis since [wife's name] was 'feeling' that things are not right. Sunset should have been 8:59 for us, but was 29 minutes late.
And sun set (approximately) 5 degrees too far north...."
Another oddity, and unfortunately this one fits in with the idea that there's more than a little bit of weirdness going on in celestial terms. Then there's the series of recent posts at www.bushcountry.org from a mysterious scientist who calls himself "Aussie Boloke" and you can read about his comments at http://www.bushcountry.org/news/jun_news_pages/g_060104_withheld_june_2004.htm but the most important features are that he expects there to be a global problem as the earth enters a cosmic dust cloud on the 8th or 9th followed by some kind of impact events in the area of the 18th-20th with another impact event possible around the 26th-27th of this month. Must read material.
Terrorists with Propane Tankers...
The Feds are understandably concerned about the disappearance of two propane tankers in Texas. With all the high value targets along the Gulf Coast, it's no wonder! http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/06/01/fbi.propane.reut/index.html Meantime, the Christian Science Monitor is reporting that AQ is looking to target U.S. energy supplies: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0601/p01s03-wome.html We'll keep our eyes peeled for any similar stories. Specifically, other refinery towns (Cherry Point, Washington, Los Angeles, Sacramento River estuary, and so forth) because an attack on a refinery would put us all in gas lines.
Pressuring OPEC
We note with interest that the energy minister of Qatar has added his voice to the growing (and largely U.S. sponsored) call for OPEC to ease its production quotas: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=home&sid=aHYsXeITnM5Q But that's going to be a tough one for the Saudis - they're caught in a vice. In fact, so obvious is their plight that I will predict that the supposed attack plans for June 4th on a Saudi prince and family may turn out to be real.
What we have here are U.S. interests becoming desperate for oil, and while that would endear the Saudi royals to the West, it would also serve to make tensions in Saudi Arabia worse. So the AQ/militant Islamists will no doubt step up their attacks on Saudi oil interests to try and counter-balance the Qatar call. Very ugly.
No Way Out
The Army has cut orders to keep people presently in the Army there for a while longer: http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/294628|top|06-02-2004::10:47|reuters.html
More Naval Movements
If you caught my interview on the Steven Quayle Radio Program yesterday, you will find this of interest. China has announced they are about to begin large-scale military maneuvers near Taiwan: http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040602-010016-1638r.htm
Letter from Ehor
I don't want to bore you with the workings of the economy any more than necessary, with with the Fed pumping M-3 at an alarming rate, I received a note from Ehor Mazurok, who I worked with in developing the Mazurok-Ure Theory. It simply states that there are periodic crashes in the economy brought about by mountains of unsustainable debt and that the maximum period for such an accumulation is a theoretical 83-years. Today, I was pleased to get a note from Ehor - and you can find our original work in the area through the Library/Archive links to the left:
"Remember our work, where it was shown that by dropping the interest rates, you pass a certain point, and things start to work backwards. Instead of gains one gets diminishing returns. You came up with an airfoil analog to the mathematics, that gave a physical model of the process. The airfoil has flipped, is loosing lift. To get things back on track, you have to raise interest rates, to pull things back before the point where things start working backwards. In other words, interest rates have to go back up to flip the airfoil around, to generate the lift required to keep things going.
One does not need rocket science to see this. Printing money degrades the value of currency. Its no different, than clipping bits and pieces out of a dollar as it circulates through the economy. As long as the bill is still recognizable, that is, still has some value, it is accepted as legal tender and traded. On the other hand, as enough of the bill is chopped up where its authenticity is started to be questioned, resistance to accepting as trade for goods starts to mount. Raising interest rates, is going backwards. That is gluing back the pieces that were hacked off, to where the bill starts to look like money again. A simple kindergarten explanation that brings home the point as to what is going on.
Unfortunately, if interest rates are raised, in Canada, as probably in the US, a lot of people will start turning keys back to the lenders for all of those houses, RV's, boats, cars that were bought with low interest money. FED pumping has addicted the public to easy money, and when it becomes not so easy, the payments will become as a crushing vice.
Our economic planners have successfully put all of us between a rock and a hard place. However, they still have a few tricks up their sleeves. As soon as they find out printing is not bringing the returns they expected, then other tricks come out of the bag. You may have seen some of them already. A new generation of FEES for things that our taxes were supposed to pay. Double taxation in disguise is the next game to play. This will go on, until the consumer is totally tapped out, resulting in the biggest depression we have ever seen! It ain't going to be soon! My math still shows, that 2014 is it! Which means we still have about 9 years to set ourselves up for Urbansurvival!!!!
Which is assuming of course that something wicked doesn't come this way later this month, of course... but we'll be watching for double taxation as a go forward watch point.
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Good News Won't help
We notice this morning that there are two stories that should have fueled a big buying binge on Wall Street: Both consumer spending and the ISM forecast point to some positive developments: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBCECB4YUD.html But while this looked to be good news, the market is still looking with a high degree of worry at the price of oil, which seems planted north of $41/barrel due in no small measure to the al Qaida attack in Saudi Arabia this weekend: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3763313.stm .
While AQ is a pain, the larger issue before the markets, and one which sort of falls out naturally when you have a big run-up in energy prices, is price inflation. That's where we are seeing things today like 4-5% increases in a single day in key commodities. http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBWXO05YUD.html. We have to look at commodity prices as a mix of oil prices and monetary inflation, specifically the huge increase over the past month that other commentators have previously identified.
Thus, our outlook for this week is for a resumption of down trend and a close under 10,000 by week's end, but with the caveat that this is not investment advice - you pays your money and takes your chances on that score completely on your own.
Problems in Petrostan
Well, let's count 'em up. Adnan Pachachi, who was the neocon's choice to head up the 52nd state decided he valued life more than prestige, which left a second choice, a civil engineer by training, to become the new "president" of Iraq: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D87DF768-C95D-4CE1-9008-95D534347351.htm This by itself might have been good news, if there hadn't been another dozen killed by a bomb blast overnight.
Of course, Iraq isn't alone with problems: 15 people were killed as a bomb ripped through a Shia mosque in Pakistan yesterday: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5E4FC857-A701-494A-BF8D-746569162FE6.htm
Who Has Time to Read?
Apparently, fewer and fewer. There's a new report out that newspaper reading has continued a modest global decline over the past year: http://dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story.jsp?sectionid=1274&storyid=1412576. We won't fault the papers (spineless though they might be). Rather, the decline in readership no doubt results from two factors beyond the reach of the press. First, people globally are feeling more disenfranchised than ever. Yeah sure, you can vote, but when your choice is two Yalie frat brothers like George and John, what's the point? We have a ruling elite here and in many other countries to boot. Second, people are suffering a form of cognitive dissonance - which means what they see (run away inflation at the store) is not being reflected in what's available for reading. When what you see and what you read get far enough apart, your brain will shut off one of the inputs (in this case the newspaper) in order to pretend that the world makes sense. Trust me, it doesn't.
Speaking of George's Brother John...
He's now figured out that nuclear terrorism is the gravest threat to the country: http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/381249|top|06-01-2004::02:05|reuters.html He want to beef up security around nuclear facilities, something that I just sort of assumed the Fatherland Security folks had already done. But it's not enough for Kerry.
Monday: Panic between the Lines?
What's with June 20?
From a reader:
I read with interest your weekend update about something big coming in mid June. I was particularly interested in Robert McHugh's warning about the massive Federal Reserve money pumping (article linked to safehaven.com). Indeed, it does seem the Fed is still in "panic mode" even as the rest of the world fixates on interest rate hikes, etc. Why would the Fed be pumping money like mad if they're planning to raise interest rates?? Something here is fishy.
Something else fishy has been happening in the options markets. I follow the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) put/call ratio on a daily basis. The put/call is often a contrary indicator.. when everyone buys alot of calls, the market is likely near a top. When everyone loads up on puts, we're probably near a bottom.. BUT NOT ALWAYS.
I've seen something in the CBOE put/call ratio over the past month that I've never seen before in nearly 10 years of following the markets. The put/call ratio has closed at 1.0 or higher on 13 of the past 22 trading days, stretching back to late April. There are two things unusual about this: First of all, I can't recall the put/call ratio closing over 1.0 for more than 3 or 4 days in any 1 month, even after the market reopened after September 11, 2001!! Someone somewhere is buying a HECK of alot of bearish options contracts... and they have been loading up on them for the past month.. What's even MORE remarkable is that market really hasn't rallied much at all. Normally a spike in put buying like that would be indicative of overly bearish sentiment on the part of the PUBLIC.. A rally usually would follow. This time, it doesn't appear to be the PUBLIC loading but instead, someone else... But whom?? And why?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Oh, read on!
Advisory
Back to Texas, Site Overhaul , New Bot Run
If something looks different today, it's because I have started a long-term overhaul of the site because it didn't have the professional look that is appropriate to its content. I also discovered about 3-weeks ago that about 18% of our readership was not able to navigate using the javascript menus. I hope it's more friendly to Web-TV users, too.
Elaine & I are taking 3-4 weeks off while the "deal" that had engaged me for due diligence "cooks". We're taking a "slow mosey" back to the ranch and expect to be there by next weekend. Meantime, we continue watching international developments with some concern as was noted in our weekend Special Report below. For Inside Report subscribers, we look at how placement of major news events can influence the peak of a bubble, and in particular how that may apply to China.
One highly recommended site to look in on today is Robert McHugh's warning (on Safehaven.com) about the huge money pumping exercise undertaken by the Fed in the past few weeks. See: http://www.safehaven.com/article-1597.htm
Also, the new ALTA report is out for www.halfpasthuman.com subscribers. There are several entities identified in the new report, but to me the most interesting is called Armies at Sea. My colleague Cliff notes that this is a very difficult run to interpret because of all the web traffic related to the movie "Day After Tomorrow". Still, the entity is extremely interesting:
"It would seem to suggest that Armies at Sea are about to be subjected to storm after storm with some unpleasant results. In the data set one finds that (repeated thunderclaps/soundings) (bring up) [desperate actions] in the (midst of continued stress/large noise). There is a situation with (pollution/impurity of air/water) which (causes distress) of a (local/regional) level in the midst of the larger issues affecting the Armies at Sea."
All of which would be a little more than passing interest, except as we noted this weekend, there is some much activity by almost all the navies of the world as explained below.
Urgent Weekend Report:
Is "Snowball" a Coincidence?
Executive Summary:
A supposed intercept of a U.S. military SSB radio transmission on 26 January of this year referred to a mysterious "countdown" to an unnamed event which (by the countdown) will occur around June 19 or 20 of this year. In the past few weeks, however, naval units worldwide have been putting to sea in unusual numbers, sufficient to cause us to revisit the original message to assess movements and adopt a watch mode going forward into the June 19-20 date area.
Details:
I was not planning on doing a special weekend report but four things happened that prompt me to share some speculation with you. The four items?
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Historical: I happened to think about the piece on "Snowball Net" which, if you might recall, was a supposed intercepted radio communication between U.S. military units that I posted on this site in March. Click here for the original link and scroll down to "For the Truly Paranoid..." http://www.urbansurvival.com/nl03262004.htm Here's what it said:
"Want to be paranoid about something akin to Planet X showing up before November? Here's a snip which I received by email yesterday - a bit aged, but interesting nevertheless:
A member of our ham radio club intercepted this transmission and shared it with a few of us. He made a digital recording of it. The transmissions took place on 1-26-04 staring at 0:5:00 UTC. The frequency was 11.176 mhz, USB.
The conversation is between SNOWBALL NET and another station. We assume SNOWBALL is the network operator.
Here is a transcript:
SNOWBALL NET: Snowball Net comms check. All stations, clock sync, (pause) impact at minus 146 days, 5 hours UTC. Standby for ACC link (could have been ACD).
Burst of digital data¦
Burrow: SNOWBALL This is BURROW (could be Burro as in donkey). You are not secure¦ repeat not secure ¦ go green ¦ go green ¦
Bursts of white noise follow for approximately 3 minutes.
Copies of this have been posted on several ham boards and have been sent to Popular Communications Magazine.
OK, so that by itself is curious, although the author may have been hoaxing (or breaking provisions of the Communications Act of 1933 rules about unauthorized disclosure of third-party traffic, but we'll assuming hoaxing, right? But now add a second data point to this, the odd story of British military cavers being trapped in Mexico reported at http://news.lycos.com/news/forms/printstory.asp?section=Science&storyId=840084
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Note: This link was valid at the time posted, but has been purged from Lycos!
This British military in Mexico caves story has us wondering what the military guys are doing in caves? And who packs in that much provisions that 5-days under is no big deal? And what are those "military notebooks" they are shredding? Say what?
If one was truly paranoid, they would look at the combination of the two events and synthesize that "Hey, something is causing governments all over the world to act like they know something very bad is about to happen to the whole planet and they are looking for caves (or building underground bases) to be ready to survive whatever it is that is coming (in June).
Easy enough to write off as a wild "mind game" until we recall how close the rock Toutatis will be in September (remember that Earth is within the margin of error on Toutatis orbital projections) and then there's this one:
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/japan-muses-c-04b.html Unknown, of course, is whether there is something else "out there" which has been captured by a government "blink lab" - we'd probably never hear about it if there was.You don't know what a blink lab is? That's where NASA and other organizations take a picture of space, then take another picture of the same point in space a bit later. Whatever has moved (like a rogue planet or asteroid) can be readily seen by "blinking" between the two pictures...
No, we're not that paranoid about it, but we have been monitoring the Air Force 11.175 MHz USB frequency and wonder who the Burrow is...and no, it's not Barrow (as in Alaska)."
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Major Web Traffic Anomaly: The note from my colleague Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com says it all:
"Link quote, "JUST WHY IS IT THAT Nearly our Entire Naval Fleet, have unprecedented orders to leave for the Oceans?
AND, they aren't alone. At least parts of Iran, Australia, China, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam are going too. Makes me want to find out where the British Navy is holing up these days. And what of the Russians? hmmm.... Does anyone ever stay home and protect their own borders anymore? Isn't that what they are supposed to be doing? Something is very, very fishy here!"
It turns out the Brits are putting to sea, too. More on that in a few moments....
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Contemporary Events: The pattern of navies putting to sea actually became evident in earlier this week when I casually mentioned that a naval force of most ships and more than 6,000 sailors was putting to sea from San Diego. I remember thinking at the time of coverage (last Monday, May 24,2004) "My how strange, to put 6,000 people to sea for what was reported as "training maneuvers" or action in the Gulf War, given how expensive fuel is and how much such things cost...not to mention how thin reserves are stretched."
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Personal: It was decided on Friday that because the business acquisition I am working on is at a 3-4 week hold while final details are ironed out, I've been given the "green light" to head back for Texas till sometime between July 1 and August 1. At that time I will presumably come back to L.A. and work on a permanent rather than week to week consulting basis. Why is this significant? Because usually, when the Universe wants to take care of me in some way I'm not bright enough to figure out for myself, odd doors open up...and this door gives Elaine & I a chance to finish off numerous projects at the ranch in the East Texas hills.
What Pieces Would Fit?
If it happened - out of some bizarre circumstance that there was indeed something "real" about the supposed radio interception - then what would we look for prior to an event such as an impact from something falling out of space? Here's my list, which you can compare with your own ideas about how you would prepare for such an event:
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I'd move as many ships out of port, with as many of America's finest on them, as I could. It's a know fact that a tsunami at sea is much easier to deal with than a tsunami that is running up against a relatively shallow area, which might include the outer continental shelf if the impact were large enough, or it might be big enough to literally empty the big bays of either coast (Puget Sound, San Francisco, San Diego) before running back in with a killer wave hundreds of feet high which would ruin urban areas. From the NOAA web site, here is a short introduction to the field, which I'm posting here because the student of tsunamis is well documented while the oceanic impact of boloid/meteor impacts is not:
- Source:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsuintro.shtml
Database: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsrnsrch_idb.shtmlTsunamis, commonly called seismic sea waves--or incorrectly, tidal waves--have been responsible for at least 470 fatalities and several hundred million dollars in property damage in the United States and its territories. These events are somewhat rare. Major tsunamis occur in the Pacific Ocean region only about once per decade. Therefore, it is important to learn as much as possible from the relatively short history available.
The preparation of this history was undertaken because of the evident need for an up-to-date and comprehensive compilation. The previously available history of tsunamis in the United States and environs was scattered through several regional catalogs, research papers, and unpublished works. The continued research of several people has improved these now-dated catalogs. The present history incorporated all works known to the compilers into a single, comprehensive volume.
"Tsunami" is a Japanese word meaning "harbor wave." It is a water wave or a series of waves generated by an impulsive vertical displacement of the surface of the ocean or other body of water. Other terms for "tsunami" found in the literature include: seismic sea wave, Flutwellen, vloedgolven, raz de mare, vagues sismique, maremoto, and, incorrectly, tidal wave. The term "tidal wave" is frequently used in the older literature and in popular accounts, but is now considered incorrect. Tides are produced by the gravitational attraction of the sun and moon and occur predictably with twelve hour periods. The effects of a tsunami may be increased or decreased depending on the level of the tide, but otherwise the two phenomena are independent.
Although there are warning systems for tsunamis occurring around the Pacific, including local and regional warning systems in Hawaii and Alaska, the risks from future tsunamis are still not fully known. Some events, such as that in Prince William Sound, Alaska, in March 1964, can be devastating over large distances. Even over short distances along a coast, the heights of a tsunami wave will vary considerably. An important part of the risk assessment is to gain a clearer understanding of the effects of past tsunamis.
Worldwide Occurrence of Tsunamis Tsunamis have been reported since ancient times. They have been documented extensively, especially in Japan and the Mediterranean areas. The first recorded tsunami occurred off the coast of Syria in 2000 B.C. Since 1900 (the beginning of instrumentally located earthquakes), most tsunamis have been generated in Japan, Peru, Chile, New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. However, the only regions that have generated remote-source tsunamis affecting the entire Pacific Basin are the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Alaska, and the coast of South America. Hawaii, because of its location in the center of the Pacific Basin, has experienced tsunamis generated in all parts of the Pacific.
The Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas both have small subduction zones, and have histories of locally destructive tsunamis. Only a few tsunamis have been generated in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. In the Atlantic Ocean, there are no subduction zones at the edges of plate boundaries to spawn such waves except small subduction zones under the Caribbean and Scotia arcs. In the Indian Ocean, however, the Indo-Australian plate is being subducted beneath the Eurasian plate at its east margin. Therefore, most tsunamis generated in this area are propagated toward the southwest shores of Java and Sumatra, rather than into the Indian Ocean.
Tsunami Characteristics Most tsunamis are caused by a rapid vertical movement along a break in the Earth's crust (i.e., their origin is tectonic). A tsunami is generated when a large mass of earth on the bottom of the ocean drops or rises, thereby displacing the column of water directly above it. This type of displacement commonly occurs in large subduction zones, where the collision of two tectonic plates causes the oceanic plate to dip beneath the continental plate to form deep ocean trenches. Most
Subduction occurs along most of the island arcs and coastal areas of the Pacific, the notable exception being the west coast of the United States and Canada. Movement along the faults there is largely strike-slip, having little vertical displacement, and the movement produces few local tsunamis.
Volcanoes have generated significant tsunamis with death tolls as large as 30,000 people from a single event. Roughly one fourth of the deaths occurring during volcanic eruptions where tsunamis were generated, were the result of the tsunami rather than the volcano. A tsunami is an effective transmitter of energy to areas outside the reach of the volcanic eruption itself. The most efficient methods of tsunami generation by volcanoes include disruption of a body of water by the collapse of all or part of the volcanic edifice, subsidence, an accompanying or preceding the eruption. Roughly one-half of all volcanic tsunamis are generated at calderas or at cones within calderas. Submarine eruptions may also cause minor tsunamis.
Locally destructive tsunamis may be generated by subaerial and submarine landslides into bays or lakes. Lituya Bay, Alaska, has been the site of several landslide-generated tsunamis, including one in 1958 that produced a splash wave that removed trees to a height of 525 m. It also caused a tsunami of at least 50 m in the bay. The 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake triggered at least four submarine landslides, which accounted for 71 to 82 of the 106 fatalities in Alaska for the 1964 event. However, it is tectonic earthquake-generated tsunamis (those produced by a major deformation of Earth's crust) that may affect the entire Pacific Basin.
Other possible but less efficient methods of tsunami generation include: strong oscillations of the bottom of the ocean, or transmission of energy to a column of water from a seismic impulse (e.g., a deep-focus earthquake that has no surface rupture); transmission of energy from a horizontal seismic impulse to the water column through a vertical or inclined wall such as a bathymetric ridge; strong turbidity currents; underwater and above-water explosions. Several mechanisms commonly are involved in the generation of a tsunami (e.g., vertical movement of the crust by a seismic impulse or an earthquake, and a submarine landslide).
Our knowledge of tsunami generation is incomplete, because the generation phenomena has not been observed nor measured directly. However, studies of tsunami data suggest that the size of a tsunami is directly related to: the shape of the rupture zone, the rate of displacement and sense of motion of the ocean-floor in the source (epicentral) area, the amount of displacement of the rupture zone, and the depth of the water in the source area.
It is also observed that long-period tsunamis are generated by large-magnitude earthquakes associated with seafloor deformation of the continental shelf; while, shorter period tsunamis are generated by smaller magnitude earthquakes associated with seafloor deformation in deeper water beyond the continental shelf.
Once the energy from an undersea disturbance has been transmitted to the column of water, the wave can propagate outward from the source at a speed of more than 1,000 km per hour depending on the depth of the water. Because the height of the long-period waves in the open ocean is commonly 1 m or less and their wavelength is hundreds of kilometers, they pass unnoticed by observers in ships or planes in the velocity of its waves is reduced, and the height of each wave increases. The waves pile up on shore especially in the region of the earthquake source, producing a "local tsunami." Some dramatic examples of such local tsunamis include those generated by landslides or by volcanic eruptions, which have caused "runup" heights of 30 to 50 m in some coastal areas.
"Runup" is the maximum height of the water observed above a reference sea level. Two other terms may be determined from the runup value: (1) tsunami magnitude, which is defined (Iida and others, 1967) as
m = log2H and (2) tsunami intensity, which is defined (Soloviev and Go, 1974) as
I = log2(21/2 * H), where H in both equations is the maximum runup height of the wave.
If the energy produced by the generating disturbance is sufficiently large, such as that released by a major deformation of the crust in a trench area, the resulting tsunami wave may cross the open ocean and emerge as a destructive wave many thousands of kilometers from its source. The severity of a tsunami of this type--called a "remote-observed and perhaps cause damage throughout the Pacific Ocean Basin (e.g., the Chile tsunami of May 1960).
Radiation of a remote-source tsunami from the focus of an earthquake is directional, depending on the geometry of the seafloor in the source region. The source region for major tectonic earthquakes is usually elliptical, and the major axis is as much as 600 km long and corresponds to the activated part of the fault. The major part of the tsunami energy is transmitted at right angles to the direction of the major axis, both toward the near shore and along a great circle path toward the shore on the opposite side of the ocean. Thus, tsunamis in Chile have severe impact on Japan; and those in the Gulf of Alaska on the west coast of North America. Hawaii, which lies in the central Pacific Basin, is vulnerable to remote-source tsunamis generated both in the North Pacific and along the coast of South America.
The velocity (V) of a tsunami in the open ocean is expressed as the product of the square root of the depth of the water (d) and the acceleration of the force of gravity (g).
V = (dg)1/2 Because the speed of the tsunami depends on the depth of the ocean basin, the waves decrease in speed as they reach shallower water. The wavelength is shortened, the energy within each wave is crowded into progressively less water, increasing the height of the wave. The tsunami may increase in height from 1 m in the open ocean to more than 20 m during runup. Also, if underwater ridges are present, they may act as collecting lenses and further intensify the tsunami.
If the tsunami encounters a coastal scarp, the height of its waves increases. Because the long-period wave can bend around obstacles, the tsunami can enter bays and gulfs having the most intricate shapes. Experience has shown that wave heights increase in bays that narrow from the entrance to the head, but decrease in bays that have narrow entrances. Shores of islands protected by coral reefs commonly receive less energy than unprotected coastlines lying in the direct path of an approaching tsunami. Islands in a group may "shadow" one another reducing the tsunami effect. Small islands may experience reduced runup as the tsunami waves may refract around them.
A tsunami wave may break on the beach, appear as flooding, or form a "bore"(violent rush of water with an abrupt front) as it moves up a river or stream. When the trough of the wave arrives first, the water level drops rapidly. Where this occurs the harbor or offshore area may be drained of its water, exposing sea life and ocean bottom. This phenomenon may be the only warning to residents that a large tsunami is approaching. Fatalities have occurred where people have tried to take advantage of this situation to gather fish or explore the strange landscape. The wave returns to cover the exposed coastline faster than the people can run. Although there may be an interval of minutes--or perhaps an hour--between the arrival of waves, the second, third, or later waves can be more destructive than the first. Residents returning too soon to the waterfront, assuming that the worst has past, represent another kind of preventable fatalities.
While the NOAA site focuses on the idea of tsunamis being caused by undersea slippage of earth, the impact from a large scale extraterrestrial object would probably be similar, although the front of the wave would be "sharper" and move at a higher velocity.
- I'd stash things in caves
- I'd plan to get world leaders out of low-lying areas around event time.
Exercises "Blinding Storm" & "Aurora"
(San Diego) Now, this is where naval things get interesting. Let's go through a list of which countries are putting navies to sea for the month of June and remember that this might all be normal, but in times of tight budgets and high fuel prices, it seems a bit odd that so many countries are putting to sea for the next month. Take the U.S. naval group's departure from San Diego. What's the official story of the 6,000+ sailors leaving Monday?
"Both the National Training Center and Fort Polk's Joint Readiness Training Center will remain open, the officials said, with National Guard soldiers expected to fill in for the units going to Iraq.
The Navy said Tuesday that it is sending a second aircraft carrier, the USS John C. Stennis, into the western Pacific, apparently to compensate in part for the planned deployment to Iraq this summer of an Army combat brigade based in South Korea.
The Stennis, which left its San Diego home port Monday, will participate in an exercise off Alaska in June and then join the USS Kitty Hawk, which is permanently based in Japan, in the western Pacific." Link
(Norfolk) a local television station in Norfolk reports that a total of seven carrier strike groups are putting to sea in June - which if I'm not mistaken is an unprecedented move: "While the Navy won't say where the seven carrier groups are going, the carriers not already deployed are expected to be gone for only one to two months." Story (RealPlayer needed) at http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=1902088&nav=23iiNU2h
(England) The British are also putting an unusual number of ships to sea during June. http://www.navynews.co.uk/articles/2004/0405/0004052601.asp Meantime, Channel 13 in Hampton Roads, VA reports in part that:
"Called "Exercise Blinding Storm" by the United States and "Exercise Rapid Alliance" by the U.K., the training will involve about 30,000 troops from seven nations in exercises off and on the coast of North Carolina.
Dutch marines and French soldiers will take part, as well as a Peruvian submarine and contingents from Germany and Canada. The flotilla is expected to set sail Tuesday, with the two-week amphibious exercise scheduled to begin June 10.
The British landing platform dock ship Albion has already arrived. It carried four Challenger II battle tanks — the British equivalent of the U.S. M1-A1 Abrams tank. The tanks will be sent ashore aboard the ship's new landing craft during the exercise.
The biggest British ship — the aircraft carrier Invincible — also has docked with a crew of 1,050. "
http://www.wvec.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D82SAKN80.html
We find the names of the exercises interesting. Blinding Storm might be construed to mean that people can't see something that's right in front of them (we wonder if there is a chemtrails angle to all this?) and Aurora has something to do with electricity in the atmosphere at high latitudes... but that's only wild speculation. What's not wild speculation is that the news coming off the U.S. Carrier Ronald Reagan is constrained: The ship's web site is down for reworking: http://www.reagan.navy.mil/ which is not what I'd expect during a normal exercise....
Moving Leaders to Ships
I'm sure you remember George Bush's landing last year on an aircraft carrier off California. That was a publicity stunt, to be sure, but might there have been a different agenda? Perhaps. Let's suppose, for just a moment that something big really were going to happen and that world leaders would want a rapidly mobile platform to escape to - off land - just in case things got really bad following an impact event. Wouldn't a nuclear powered aircraft carrier be just the ticket?
If it was only GB-43, it might have been passed off as just a coincidence. But then we spied a BBC piece about how the Queen of England, was flown out to the British Carrier Invincible in late April of this year. In particular, the quote that jumped out of the BBC story at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3662917.stm that grabbed our attention was this:
"Captain Soar, who is leaving the ship on Friday after being promoted to Rear Admiral at the Ministry of Defence, said: "I can't recall the last time she's visited a ship at sea. I think it will surprise her to see us as a working ship and the best opportunity to do that is at sea. We are running a headquarters afloat really. "
Oh really? If the Queen was born in 1926, that would make her about 78 years old, an odd age to start wanting to go visiting ships at sea, or so it would seem to us. Moreover, the timing is interesting: It was in May of 2003 that George Bush did his oft parodied landing on the USS Lincoln. http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/05/01/bush.carrier.landing/ What this would suggest is that if there really is anything to the June 20th date, it is probably something the American scientists of NASA found first, based simply on the observation that GB was the first world leader to go maritime mobile recently. Makes me wonder what George and Tony really talked about at the ranch...
Participants List:
Countries which are planning significant naval operations for the period of interest include The U.S., England, Canada, Holland, Germany, Peru, Norway, Italy, Denmark, France and Australia.
Russian and other Moves:
We note that while the West is putting to sea in large numbers, the Russians are holding huge exercises which could be a cover for who-knows-what: http://russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=43807 We have heard, but don't have links to share that India, China, and a host of Pacific Rim countries are also planning naval exercises. If you see something of interest, please send it along by clicking here.
Follow Ups:
Saturday night I received this update from a reader who advised me that someone else has noticed the odd movement of ships:
http://www.surfingtheapocalypse.net/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=3454
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread48028/pg1
And no, we don't have any more details on the rumor that al Qaida has two diesel subs with nuclear weapons that we're searching like crazy for...no public links yet...but go read this link and you'll see how clever these weasels are.
Meantime if you thought we could trust Russia, think again: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=17518
The Gestapo Art Squad...
...has apparently beat up an art dealer in San Francisco who dared display not-complimentary art about prison abuse. The details are here http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/05/29/state1749EDT0067.DTL&type=printable but don't let them know you're wise to them or you'll end up....
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