Special Sunday Update

MSM Stonewalling? Ebola Scare in UK

Virtually no media coverage of this in the US, but a woman who flew with 259 other passengers from South Africa has died - apparently of deadly ebola virus - in a London hospital.  Virtually nothing from UK press (except in the Mirror).  We're tracking it through medical discussion boards and other sources. With an incubation period of up to 21-days, an outbreak of ebola (or other hemorrhagic fever) in a highly populated area could be disastrous.

Bot Hit: Dread Companion?

Morgellons Surfacing MSM

What's worse than Bird flu?  What's showing up in Los Angeles?  What's now just starting to go "mainstream media?"  The answer: Morgellons Disease - a story we have been aware of for months - thanks to some readers who are dialed in to www.morgellons.org - the national group which is trying to gather facts on this emergent disease.

What makes Morgellons so bad and nasty are a couple of things:

• You start to itch (in some cases all over) when you get the disease.

• Then lesions start to develop.

• Then the really bad part - you start to develop little wormy/hair-like protrusions from the lesion.

Yes, it sounds like a nightmare disease - and we've even been told by some researchers in the field that at least one major networks has held off on doing a prime time story about this breakout disease because it's not only damn frightening (think about the movie "Alien") but because except for high-power antibiotic treatments which just keeps things in check, there's no source identified and prophylaxis.

Anyway, now we can talk about it without breaching too any confidences.  Check the mainstream emerging report in the British paper the Times.  At some point the report is likely to show up in prime time  on the tube.  We wonder why MSM sits on stories that like.

While some of the outbreak has been reported in the Austin, TX area, with LA now reporting, it looks like Morgellons may be the bot's "dream companion."  As a friend said: "You & E got out of L.A. just right, eh?"  NSS = "no __ Sherlock."

Bot Hit:  Echoes of Kristallnacht II

Whipping Iran War Fever

Canada's National Post has backed off  from a claim Friday that a law passed in Iran would require non-Muslims to wear identifying badges.  Shades of Kristallnacht. The key thing about this is that it's only a story - as in fabrication.   But, right on cue, Australian Prime Minister John Howard got sucked into this mis-info story.  While he's commenting on a "news report" that initially presented the law as "fact", the original source has now reworded the lead to something like "Experts doubt...".

A few web sites are on to the this tactic of misinformation.  One site for example, Peace, Earth, & Justice News, reports the story under the headline ""Creating Kristallnach:  Hating Bating at the National Post. "

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This is the same sort of "spin" and planted story that has left most casual media consumers with the notion that Iran wants Israel annihilated and "wiped off the map."  But that's not what the president of Iran actually said - an ugly distortion that US mainstream media hasn't bothered to clear up.  For a more fair and balanced look at the story, check out the SF Indy Media story here.  Pertinent quote (my emphasis added in bold):

"It's becoming clear. The statements of the Iranian President have been reflected by the media in a manipulated way. Iran's President betokens the removal of the regimes, that are in power in Israel and in the USA, to be possible aim for the future. This is correct. But he never demands the elimination or annihilation of Israel. He reveals that changes are potential. The Shah-Regime being supported by the USA in its own country has been vanquished. The eastern governance of the Soviet Union collapsed. Saddam Hussein's dominion drew to a close. Referring to this he voices his aspiration that changes will also be feasible in Israel respectively in Palestine. He adduces Ayatollah Khomeini referring to the Shah-Regime who in this context said that the regime (meaning the Shah-Regime) should be removed. "

See what I mean?  MSM spin you and left you with false impressions of what is being said in order to lay the groundwork for the demonizati0n of Iran - a campaign which is in full swing by by pro-expanded war parties.

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Our goal in discussing this today, however, has nothing to do with choosing up sides in the debate or teaching you about spin..  Rather, it is to look again at this evocation in mass consciousness of the term "Kristallnacht" because in future predicting web bot model space, the evocations of Kristallnacht appear semi-simultaneously to "gun control."

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ALTA series subscribers (to the www.halfpasthuman.com project) may recall that in November 2005, the future-predicting technology made reference to gun control and the "echo of Kristallnacht" in Europe.  Think back to the riots in France earlier this year.  That precipitated discussion of "gun control" and was anecdotally followed in mid March - as we reported - here in the USA, by shortages of certain calibers of ammunition.

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In ALTA 806_4, (February 25, 2006)  the web bot project principals lamented a bit about the seeming inaccuracy of the "Kristallnacht" forecast (portions posted here with exclusive permission.  reposts must contain links to both www.halfpasthuman.com and www.urbansurvival.com ):

"However, this posting in November [2005 - G] was a tad bit more complex in that what is being referenced is not an event, but rather the first appearance of an emotional wave {ed note: defined as meme group around a collective subject, and all containing variants on the emotional sums}. We need to note that the emotional wave of 'gun control' at a global level, with specific Populace/USofA focus has manifested, and though 2/two days prior to the day our forecast indicated, we are at least satisfied as it was primarily Populace/USofA entity data which led to the detection of the emotional wave. Again, the complexities mount as now that the wave/echo has manifested, it has its own "energy" or "resonance" levels, and will continue to be felt/manifest in the longer term, even though the immediacy values used to forecast its appearance have been "used up" so to speak. Make sense?

 

So now we have to go back to the lexicon, track down the value set, and adjust the "fuzzy" side of the predicate calculus for date range probabilities within the 'immediacy' value set for 'impact', 'duration', 'intensity', 'e-range', 'w-range', et al by reducing by two days. Then, we hope like hell we haven't forgotten something or otherwise screwed things over in the code, and start running the processing again on new data on the *assumption* that we have acted out our roles in a *positive* feedback loop. Thus it may make a bit more sense when the modelspace starts getting out of whack, and why our timing is sucky. Language changes faster than we can keep up within the lexicon.

 

Another aspect of how we get things wrong has to do with the nature of the emotional wave itself. We currently have the 'cartoon riots' emotional wave manifesting, and now the 'gun control' part of things with both an international and USofA flavor to it. So back in November, we had a glimpse of a picture which included 'Muslims', 'riots', 'emotional angst', 'destruction', and lastly 'gun control'. Thus it can be seen that we *assumed* the 'gun control' was an outgrowth of the 'Moslem rioting', and ergo, since had already detected some 1930's emotional wave echoes, made a forecast that the 'gun control' and the 'rioting' were causally related. Which, as we now know from today's headlines, is not the case. They are temporally linked, but beyond that, our interpretation was flawed."

Today's appearance of the National Post story explains the seeming (at the time) drift in accuracy of the web bot forecast (of Nov 2005) about the "echoes of Kristallnacht" linguistic set.  The only "flaw" in the interpretation of the data was that it the "echo" is now seeming to come in two parts.

As rickety time machines go, we've run into this "two-part events will get you" in past predictive runs.  For example, we initially believed that the August 2004 earthquake predictions about "electric water rising" within a data set about earthquakes, was just a linguistic fluke.  Especially when we got the September earthquakes in Southern California that caused the evacuation of the Redwood City courthouse during the Peterson trial.  At the time, we were surprised that the data discussed "300,000 dead, land driven back to a previous age."  It didn't make sense because the California quakes were smallish - 5.6 Richter if memory serves.

It was only later that we discovered - very much to our surprise - that when two future events share common elements (So. Cal quakes in Sept, the Sumatra tsunami in December) that the future events can be misinterpreted if their attributes are similar.  What was "300,000 dead" and "land driven back to a previous age" was ultimately correct - and  "electric water rising" was close linguistically, but not perfect because the event was a "shocking rise of water."   Being right in the face of two-part events is tough.

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Thus, today's references to Kristallnacht, as the outgrowth of the National Post "fanning stories"   may blow up into mainstream coverage, we will turn our attention to stories developing over calls for "gun control" which is the semi-concurrently arising linguistic flavor of the time.

Gun control stories are popping out this week in diverse place such as:

• Canada

• Belgium

• Trinidad and Tobago

• ...and most significantly, the quiet new push for gun control in the USA.

Thanks to the bot run, and the National Post headlines, we're now looking for "gun control" stories to percolate up into the public mind over the coming few weeks.

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The next future predictive series (which will focus on late summer and into winter events), will start May 29th or so.  We'll let you know when subscriptions open for the series.  I can hardly wait.

Shortage Watch

Motor Oil Shortage?

As you know from reading yesterday's column, we've been keeping a weather eye toward next month when a long predicted series of events in computer model-space called "encounter with scarcity" is due to arrive. This is not based on word frequency, or other simple to implement analytics.  It's the output from a very sophisticated linguistic shift analysis protocol well documented elsewhere on this site.

In our Friday report, we posted the experiences of a reader who was having a dickens of a time finding motor oil at his local Wal-Mart.  While we suspected it was just a fluke in the JIT stocking system of WMT, I was taken aback by an email from an industrial source:

"Hi George, reading your site this morning and saw Wal-Mart was out or low on motor oil.

I work at the second largest chemical plant in the world, one plant is located in Texas and have for the past 30 years, we produce polyethylene plastic. About 2 months ago I noticed our oil storage tanks were low (around 30wt motor oil), we normally get oil in rail cars around 20,000 gallons. We started getting oil in trucks about 5,000 gallons each. Learned we where on oil rations and we had to reduce consumption. Without oil to run our compressors, no plastic. Have never seen this in 30 years."

This raised an interesting question about how an "encounter with scarcity" could take the US by surprise.  Suppose for a minute that the tracked distillates are doing OK, but the other petroleum distillates are getting tight.  One reason to suspect things are getting tight is a [different] reader who says he's having an increasingly difficult time getting vinyl gloves for working on cars:

"...can't find the buggers anywhere. Well, stanley brand at lowes but I hate these as they don't fit my large hands and my palms are large from all the canoe paddling I do so I barely squeeze into the home depot cheapo vinyl gloves. Now not to be found at any hd store or anywhere else in my part of the NW...

...and other oil related shortages showing up. Oil based pesticides are available, for now, as they were produced last winter. But restock, so I am told, will not happen. What is there is there and that is it...

...also could not obtain 5w-30w oil for tranny for trooper at two separate chains. found it at autozone finally...."

So, when you are out and about shopping this weekend, please take note of motor oil supplies and if you see anything odd, please drop me a note.  Thanks

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In China, the weather has been raising all kinds of hell.  On the one hand, there are food shortages due to a prolonged drought in part of the country.  On the other, 90 dead so far in the aftermath of typhoon Chanchu.

China, meantime, has completed the dam wall construction portion of the Yangtze River crossing at Three Gorges.  While there were some ceremonies, the real work is yet to come finishing out the powerhouses and installing peripheral equipment.

IRS and Gold

Besides talking about a variety of ways to figure gold's price targets long term, Peoplenomics this week explores the various ways long term gains may be viewed, and how IRS's way of figuring gains is something less than honest.  It has to do with the government watering down the money and then taxing you for the outcome.  Subscriptions are $30 a year - click here for info.  Next week, we'll be modeling the destruction of the Just-In-Time economy.  Think of it as "econometrics for the masses."

A Dollar Saved is...

... I bet you think I'm going to say "a dollar earned."  But it's not.  It's actually, depending on your tax bracket, more like $1.47 earned.  And it's 1/10th of the price of our eBook "How to Live on $10,000 a year, or less."  Available at our bookstore - check it out.

Tell Your Friends

Yes, there is a place where common sense hangs out.  Here.  Tell your friends - it's free and six days a week.

Links Appreciated

If you have a web site, a link to this page would be appreciated - the more links here, the more people will find out about UrbanSurvival.  It's how search engines work (at least one aspect of search engines...they are complex beasties.)  I will put a link to your site on my links page, too if you link to this one...

Friday, May 19, 2006

Hang On

Shortages Arriving

Although many readers of this site are skeptical of the web bot project over at www.halfpasthuman.com, the system of large scale linguistic shift analysis has developed an uncanny way of predicting the archetype-level "feel" for coming news events.  The latest example seems to be the long forecast "encounters with scarcity" meme which is due to show up unexpectedly (at least by the masses) sometime right after Memorial Day.  It seems like the leading edge of shortages may be in the process of becoming visible just above the preconscious level now.

To show you what I'm driving at, you may remember that on March 15th, I began to take a daily reading of news returns for the word "shortage" from http://news.google.com.  I dutifully logged these into a spreadsheet and have been watching the trend daily (and reporting it weekly for subscribers to our www.peoplenomics.com service) to see if the web bots (first amazingly right in predicting the events of 9/11 and a host of others since) would be right again.  Here's today's chart:

As evidence of the seriousness of the "shortages arriving/ encounter with scarcity" meme, go check out the story that a dozen readers brought to my attention on Thursday that says "Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point."  The issue:

"Thirty years ago, the oceans were teeming with fish, but today more people rely on farmers to produce their food than ever before, says Stewart Wells, NFU's president.

In five of the last six years, global population ate significantly more grains than farmers produced.

And with the world's farmers unable to increase food production, policymakers must address the "massive challenges to the ability of humanity to continue to feed its growing numbers", Wells said in a statement."

Although you can watch the future "resolve into being" without getting as stressed about it, using the web bot runs as a "libretto of life," I expect in 3-4 weeks (if not sooner) the encounter with scarcity will begin to hit Mainstream Media (MSM).  When it does, you might encounter shortages.  On the other hand, you may be encountering shortages right now but they may not have percolated up into your consciousness yet.

Reports from readers like this one are starting to show up:

"Hi George, Today we made our run to the Wal Mart in Elk City, OK. It is about a 38 mile round trip to the closest Wally World and we try to keep down trips because of the gasoline costs. We wanted 3 gallons of Delo 400 oil for vehicles....they had none...and they usually stock it....they were out.... We wanted 6 gallons of Pennzoil 10W-40 for vehicles but they only had 4 in the whole store.... We wanted a #94 color cartridge for our printer.....they were out...... We wanted two gallons of glossy base paint mixed....sorry, no glossy base...out; but they had only two gallons of the flat left so we took that....when we left they had no base in gallon cans left to mix paint with.....

JIT stocking is stumbling...... Why? Could it be that people like us are stocking up on products that we can store? Products that we will need in the next year....

That was the intent of getting the oil for the vehicles. I was able to get oil filters for all the vehicles.... Last week I got spark plugs, air filters for the chain saws... And in late March I got extra chains saw blades and blades for the chain saws....

We have put up a years supply of laundry soap, dish washing soap, hand soap, toilet paper, paper plates, napkins and cooking oil mostly from the commissary due to my access to military by retirement...USAF..."

As long-time readers know, the way the future works is that we experience a subtle shift of language sometimes a year or longer before an actual "event" brings the change in affairs to the attention of our conscious minds.  We've also seen, anecdotally, that the larger the emotion impact of an event, the more lead time we have about its arrival in MSM coverage.

Thus, when the web bots talk about the "encounter with scarcity" for over a year in advance, we cautiously (Cliff, Igor, and me) take it seriously.  Also, as I have mentioned, the web bot predictions tend to 'steer" the kind of news items we cover, so that readers will have plenty of advance warning about the forces at work and how they will manifest when they arrive.

If the "encounter with scarcity" issue is of the magnitude we're expecting (replete with restrictions on travel, and so forth) you'd probably want to know as much about it as possible.  So, this morning I'm going to shoot myself in the economic foot (but do the right thing from a karma standpoint I suppose) and put my "Death by JIT" paper out for public consumption.  Click here to read it. 

Normally this is the kind of thing for subscribers only, but hey, if being aware of things is advance is useful to you, here's a treat (or burden) from Universe for you.  A number of people have asked "What's a Peoplenomics report like, anyway?  Well, here's the answer - minus the ChartPack which is a selection of charts including since 3/15, the "shortage" chart.

Remember as you read the article that while it touches on the potential terrorist impact on JIT, the effect would be the same if a major summer earthquake (think 9+) hits the US West Coast this year.

The last time I put a Peoplenomics paper out may have been my September '99 paper "Death by Dot Coms" which discussed the coming impacts of the internet bubble collapse well in advance - five months in advance come to think of it, for subscribers back then.  Well, we're still in the aftermath of the onset of the Second Depression, with the lows of 2002/2003 for the first leg down cleverly hidden by the terrorist acts on 9/11.  Without that, the country would have been forced to look inward and address our excessive consumption (which if you haven't noticed is way out of proportion to the rest of the planet) and we'd be examining the underpinnings of the economy in general and the dollar in particular.

As luck would have it, because we're not willing to conduct that kind of rigorous self-appraisal, and modify the greed driven profit paradigm, others are doing it for us.

China: Dollar "Spoiled Child"

I have immense respect for Chinese businessmen.  So, when I'm reviewing the morning's news in the "People's Daily" online edition, when a headline involves the paperbuck, I stop and scan it quickly.  Not being on deadline, you can take a more liesurely mosey through it.

A number of authors, including Jim Sinclair (www.jsmineset.com) see things the same way and wonder if the Bank of England isn't behind the face-slap of gold in the past few days.  Not that it matters, figures Sinclair if I read him right.  My personal take is that gold will come through with flying colors, the Fed will raise another point to point and a half between now and September, and the US will be on a war footing before the end of September.

OK, so gold may drop to $575 on its way higher.  Who cares?

Mexico: Unstoppable?

George Bush made quite a show yesterday of his travels around the Mexico border.  But, as the AP's Mark Stevenson reports, Mexicans are openly skeptical that three layers of fense will slow anything down.

You may recall the web bots called the "context shift" recently that would lead to open conflict/fighting about the end of August (11:54 PM on August 31st, but precision in bot runs is often illusory).  We're suspecting more and more that the conflict will be Mexico-border related.

An email from the bot crew sums it up...(hope they don't mind my sharing it - we're pretty candid with one another about what's coming...)

"Geo. right on schedule....bushista [entity in model space] driving emotions, and the rebellion anchor point looks to be immigration, of course it will be called invasion, and that is likely where the conflict lies, with Mexico and points south. So that may well be the shooting war that erupts over late summer.

Also the dollar dying is on schedule so the implication for the 10 times worse problem later in summer also holds. That will trigger the 'fight for jobs' rebellion which leads to the shooting war with Mexico.

Also the violence is creeping in on schedule as well. So the battle for south Texas cant be far off. Maybe Sept. "

Again, we're just putting all this out for your consideration in an effort to lower your stress levels a bit - but be advised that the "conflict" that breaks out this fall will run through June 2007 and will be 40-100 times more stressful on the country than Katrina/Rita. 

OK, enough of the libretto, let's turn our attention back to where the play is at the moment. But most of it today is bit parts & diversions from the main plot:

Chanchu Fallout

More that 200 Vietnamese fishermen missing in the wake of the typhoon.

Hayden's Sales Job

Still trying to justify not use of the FISA court and not wanting to out phone companies that are playing along with the NSA.  (Secrets Revealed meme continues rolling along)

Hoffa Hunt

The search for Jimmy Hoffa's body starts to sound like a rerun of "Cold Case Files."

Pat and the Bots?

Sounds like Pat Robertson is having visions of a tsunami hitting the US this year.  He been reading the bot runs on the sly?

Lay Trial: Machine Did It

Blame the auto-signature machine...

Thursday May 18, 2006

Invade Brazil!!

While the neoCONs in DC are hard pimping the idea of invading Iran because of their efforts to enrich uranium, we noticed this morning that Brazil is starting to enrich uranium, too.

Surely, the neoCONs will band together on this and urge the immediate invasion of Brazil, won't they?  That country may not have as much oil as Iran, but they are light years ahead of flex-fuel engines. Get Karl on the phone for me!  This should be a go! It's a threat to America's imaginary corporate hegemony in South America, long ago co-opted by China and their PLA front firms while we were asleep at the switch...

I can hardly wait for the carefully crafted weasel words to come excusifying why we won't, of course.  But then again, Brazil's nearby neighbors don't have pictures of CONgressmen in compromising positions, do they?

An early bounce for the market - will it last?

Probably not.  The major indices are showing a few signs of life this morning as we look at the pre-opening numbers.  But as the old saying goes, "It ain't over till it's over."  A smallish bounce at the open - and maybe through tomorrow, maybe, but there may be more to come.  Here's why:

We have a couple of ways to read this, depending on whether you are a technician (addicted to technical analysis) or a fundamentalist (addicted to supply/demand analysis).

Let's start with technical analysis and Elliott wave theory.  If you're not familiar with the concept, Wikipedia offers a dandy "short definition that goes like this:

According to the Elliott wave theory, markets move in a predetermined number of waves up and down. Specifically, markets move in five waves up and three waves down and price charts have a self-similar fractal geometry. This is true for bull markets. Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves, and subdivide 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves, and subdivide a, b, c. In a bear market, the pattern is reversed, five waves down and three up.

This is different that Gary Lammert's more "pure fractal" approach, but it's easier to count and sometimes quite visually elegant.  The problem with Elliott counts is there is almost always an "alternative count" that gives an opposite outcome.  Still, I know a few rich Elliott users.

Zooming out to the view of the market from 100-thousand feet, we see that except for the Dow, our two other indices, the NASDAQ composite and the S&P 500 cash has actually dropped since the first trading week of 2005.  On January 6th, the S&P was at 1287.61, while yesterday's close was a tad over 1270.  The NASDAQ composite then was 2205.32 versus yesterday's close of 2195.80.  Only the Dow was up of the three; 10,717.5 then and 11,205.61 from last night.

Today, I reckon the markets are due to "bounce" back a bit.  Movement in the markets is never even and is ragged as traders run things above and below trend lines.  Question is, will any bounce in here last?

Significantly, volume is picking up. 2.8 billion shares is a lot on the NYSE.  Joe Granville, the father of something called on-balance-volume, figured that when the volume of stocks going down was larger than the volume of stocks going up, the market was generally headed more in that directions.  (There's more to it: Click here for a quick look at OBV). 

During the peak of yesterday's sell off, I called Robin Landry, one of the (few) honest broker's I know, who reminded me that despite pundits say, crashes come during oversold conditions.  We both figured that when talking heads are shouting "the market is over sold!" is not necessarily by itself a reason to run out today and buy stocks.  Crashes develop when the market is "over sold.":  Write one one down somewhere in your trading tactics grimoire.

This morning, Robin sent a follow on email offering this:

"The declines overnight on the Nikkei and the Hang Seng confirm to me the decline has more to go before a bounce. Next support is in the 11080 area. If that is broken the next support is around 10820. This would complete the first wave down to be followed by several days of bounce. The bounce will tell me much more about the degree of this decline. "

Landry (contact info) has rolled his clients out, many well in advance-of this, and our shared fear is that this could be the start of the Big One. If that's the case, we will see a series of declines down to something like Dow 5,000.  The reason this target is that the decline in 3 or C under Elliott can be 150% of the first decline, which we know from history was the decline from the 2000 all time highs to the 2002/2003 lows, depending on which index you choose.

On a fundamental analysis side, the major hurdle faced by most companies is that we're up against the ceiling on global consumption.  If interest rates go up globally, that might make bankers happy, but it will likely cut consumption, and in part, this is why the sell-off has been global in nature.

I won't worry too much about this being the "Big One" unless the market takes out 9,100 or so.  At that point, our biggest risks will be terrorism (has to be something to blame) and the real downside comes into view.

Something Coming?

A reader sent in a note that the Princeton Noosphere (global consciousness) project was almost solid red last night.  You might want to bookmark http://noosphere.princeton.edu/gcindex.html and click on the real time display once in a while with your sound card up.  I've been monitoring this morning and there have been few gongs - a sort of normal morning.  Nevertheless, it's one of those things I keep running in background now and then.

You also might want to look in on the Havaria Information Service alert map: http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng

Spendthrift CONgress

The new spending bill has been passed by the house - a $2.7 trillion monster.  Hidden by most mainstream media:  The federal budget deficit is being raised from $653 billion to $9.6-trillion!

This gets me to thinking about an interesting concept of democracy:  If a tax law was passed before I was born, could I challenge the tax law on the basis that I am being subjected to taxation without representation?  Not that most tax laws aren't periodically reauthorized, but one day (probably after I'm in the ground as fertilizer) my kids and yours will wake up and say "What have they done to us?"  The answer: the republicorps and the democorps are screwing future generations of Americans.  Way to go!

Killer Typhoon

Eight people dead from the typhoon so far, but that count is likely to go much higher. 630,000 people evacuated.

Immigration

The Senate has approved building of fences along key parts of the border with Mexico.  Not likely to stop the invasion any time soon, but any port in a storm, I guess.

Rummy: Waffle

Think there will be major troop reductions from Iraq this year?  Not by how SecDef Don Rumsfeld is sounding.

Saudis Have More Rights than Us?

The report in the NT Times this morning has an innocent enough headline to be sure: "US to turn over 16 Saudis from Guantanamo to Riyadh."   What's the big deal?  Well, it means the US is willing to turn over citizens of other countries, but citizens of the US for open trials here?  Nope.  Ergo, my conclusion.   Those with oil have more rights than those of us without.

For the Jury

The Enron case is now in the jury's hands.  I look for endless appeals to keep anyone from doing jail time and I expect presidential pardons will be issued in the closing hours of the Bush administration.

UPS Expansion

Adding 5,000 jobs to its Louisville hub.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Breaking: Coke Bust Reveals 9/11 Details

No confirmation of the details, but go read this story.

12.68% CPI - This is Good News?

Consumer Price inflation for All Urban Consumers popped up 0.9% in April according to figures out this morning.  This pencils out to an annualized rate of  11.35% or 12.68% if you use the more honest "old weights" for your calculations.  Around here, that's what we go by because they seem to most closely track our personal spending experience in our own checkbooks.

"CPI (Old Weights)

For the first six months of 2006, BLS also will calculate Old Weights CPI-U and Old Weights CPI-W based on the 2001-02 expenditure pattern used in the CPI from 2004 through 2005. These Old Weight data are contained in tables 1(OW)-4(OW). From March to April, the Old Weight CPI-U rose 0.9 percent and the Old Weight CPI-W rose 1.0 percent. Note these series are not seasonally adjusted.

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The April level of 201.5 (1982-84=100) was 3.5 percent higher than in April 2005.

(Note: Seasonal adjusting takes out 0.3% to result in an "adjusted" 0.6% rise. - G)

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.0 percent in April, prior to seasonal adjustment. The April level of 197.2 (1982-84=100) was 3.7 percent higher than in April 2005.

(Adjusting this 1% number takes it down to 0.6% - G)

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in April on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The April level of 116.8 (December 1999=100) was 3.1 percent higher than in April 2005. Please note that the indexes for the post-2004 period are subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.6 percent in April, following a 0.4 percent rise in March. Energy costs, which increased 1.3 percent in March, advanced 3.9 percent in April. Within energy, the index for petroleum based energy increased 8.5 percent, while the index for energy services fell 1.5 percent. The food index was unchanged in April, as a 0.2 percent decline in the index for food at home was offset by a 0.2 percent increase in the index for food away from home. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in April, the same as in March; the index for shelter accounted for about one-half of the April increase with the indexes for apparel, for medical care, and for education and communication each accounting for about 10 percent of the April advance."

All we can figure is that our prediction about a 6.5% TTM basis inflation seems to be working out regrettably well.

Oil Power

While we continue watching the oil situation globally, and we're looking for "encounters with scarcity to show up around or not too long after Memorial Day, it's interesting to watch the game of "footsie" going on between the international powers around oil, energy, and resources.  Some thinking points:

• Venezuela is looking to swap US F-16's for Russian SU-35 fighters.

• Ecuador has decided to seize some of Occidental Petroleum

• Over at Insight on the News, we read that vice president Dick Cheney has noticed that the US may be losing the PR (petroleum and resources) war to China.

One of our favorite Google News searches done daily is "oil."

Tsunami?  What Tsunami?

A few weeks back (or maybe it was a month) we had a big quake in the Southern Pacific. Off Macquarie Island again - and it was another 8.0 range shaker.  Curiously, at the time, we wondered why the tsunami warning was not more widely proagated.  The answer, it turned out, was many areas had just regular power sources and when there's no power, there's no warning system.

Today, we see that another test was held of the warning system, and not surprisingly, still glitches to be worked out, but mostly better.

Terror in South Russia

A car bombing has killed seven people in southern Russia.  Chechen units are suspect. Some disagreement whether it was a suicide bomber of whether it was a remotely detonated device.

Holland Immigration

It's not like immigration issues are confined to the US-Mexico and Israel-Palestinian borders.  We're reading today about a high profile immigrant losing her citizenship in Holland as a result of lying on immigration forms.

The immigration bill pending in the US pencils out according to some reports as allowing up to 193-million more aliens in America by 2026.  So no, this issue is not fading quietly off into the sunset. 

Brazil Violence

The number of dead in gang-related violence in Brazil is up to 133, by one count.  This is including the 33-gang members killed in the last few days by police.

Chanchu: 180,000 Flee

Evacuation was the order of the day Tuesday in advance of Typhoon Chanchu's arrival in China.

Reynolds Writes

Roger Reynolds has been kind enough to send us his lately column "Shame on you Federal Reserve"...always worth a read:

"Tuesday after the close:

1)gold/silver and stocks--Do you remember the market crash of 1987???

The averages dropped about 20 to 25 percent in just a few days. This move down in gold stocks looks very similar. A CORRECTION IN A BULL MARKET. IN 1987, AFTER A FEW MONTHS, MANY PRICES HAD RECOVERED THEIR LOSSES AND GONE TO NEW HIGHS. The same thing will likely happen to gold/silver stocks.

2)Look at the weekly $HUI and notice that from the fall 2003 high there was a drop, rally, drop. In other words, an Elliott wave A-B-C correction that lasted 18 months. It is entirely possible that gold/silver stocks will do a much smaller time correction BUT of the same form A-B-C. This one might only require 4 to 6 months to finish. THEN ANOTHER UPSURGE TO NEW HIGHS.

3)Go to BIG CHARTS and get a 10 year chart of the DOW Industrials. A classic picture of the term "double top". A theoretically worse potential picture would be hard to find. "IF" this second move up is the B wave of an A-B-C, then what will the C downmove look like???

4)Is the last few months chart of the DOW a fifth wave "rising wedge"??? "IF" so, then the market is supposed to fall out of the wedge and then rally back to it's bottom trend line. Do not buy for such a rally!!!

5)Remember this Saturday's seminar at the public library in INDIAN TRAIL, NC at 2 PM. Come if you are in the area."

We don't endorse all of his views, but he always makes good points - and if I was in North Carolina, I'd be taking in his Saturday event.

Things to Worry About

Ben Bernanke's speech Tuesday on systemic risk (read: "I hope this doesn't blow up while I'm around") wrapped up with this conclusion:

"In the final analysis, authorities cannot entirely eliminate systemic risk. To try to do so would likely stifle innovation without achieving the intended goal. However, authorities should (and will) try to ensure that the lapses in risk management of 1998 do not happen again. Private market participants, too, have their role to play in ensuring that such lapses do not recur. The principles articulated in the CRMPG's reports are a good starting place for firms, and senior management should rigorously assess their operations against those principles and commit the resources to address deficiencies. Authorities' primary task is to guard against a return of the weak market discipline that left major market participants overly vulnerable to market shocks. Continued focus on counterparty risk management is likely the best course for addressing systemic concerns related to hedge funds. This public policy approach does not entail the moral hazard concerns created by authorities' monitoring of positions using a private database. Rather, a focus on counterparty risk management places the responsibility for monitoring risk squarely on the private market participants with the best incentives and capacity to do so. "

The entire speech is a click here if you want the full text.  While I admire Bernanke's analytical skills, when he speaks of "guarding against the return of weak market discipline," I'd suggest that ship has already sailed, that horse has left the barn, or that Elvis has left the building.

With due respect for the academic training of Mr. B, we're faced with huge management pressures that negate "strong market discipline."  In other words, when companies, funds, and others have been making a little money, it's easier to set aside a little bit of greed for risk reduction.  But in today's profit-squeezed trading environment, I'd offer that what Mr. B. "weak market discipline" is linguistically equivalent to something like "pernicious greed" drive all layers.

While American-style capitalism has its strong points, we have passed a point where pressure from management has increased to where "market discipline" has been destroyed by bottom line pressures.  Not that it's any wonder:  We live in a world where everything in market compensation packages is optimized to reward weak market discipline, which translates to "high return" with less regard for risk. 

When Nikolai Kondratieff offered  to crazy Joe Stalin that western capitalism went through cyclical booms and busts of 50-60 years (extended now by communications better interest rate intervention regimes, and so forth, but ending in 2000 with the internet bubble collapse yielding a 71-year cycle which we are still recovering from) the phenomena he was describing (death and rebirth of capitalism) remains just as cyclical today as it was when he began the Grand Supercycle work in 1924.

As those with a living memory of the first Great Depression die off, the odds increase daily that the onset of the Second Great Depression is being missed - and will continue to be so until it's too late and massive deflationary demand destruction sets in.  In the meantime, about the best that can be hoped for is an even hand on the printing press of inflation and a move of you family and loved ones to sustainable lifestyles while that's still an available option.

Fish Tales

I'd like to thank my sister Suzi for orchestrating the arrival of 6-pounds of fresh halibut at the ranch on Tuesday.  Panama and Elaine went with a dill and spices dressing while I built some of my soy sauce, ginger, and raw sugar marinate.  All of it being apple wood smoked.  Mine is sort of like a halibut jerky around the edges where it's well  fired..

Great customer service: The first attempt at getting the fish here last week blew up when our regular UPS driver had a substitute who couldn't find our place.  No problem for the Pike Place Fish Market - they cheerily sent another shipment - and this one arrived in 24-hours in great shape.  That's first-rate customer service and fine fish from www.pikeplacefish.com.  Between them and Omaha Steaks, no reason to ever leave the homestead...  Cheaper to fly the fish in from Seattle than fly us up to eat there.

Like Pappy used to say: "Your stomach sure doesn't know you're not rich."  Yup.

Tuesday May 16, 2006

Core Delusion

Granted, the producer price index bobs around a lot, but today when the increase for the month came in at 0.9% for the month of April, on the heels of a 0.5% rate the month before, I was amazed that the market took the news as well as it did.  "The core" was not as bad, and so the spinsters have something to hype, I imagine.

The numbers I watch most closely are the finished goods - they're closest to hitting my wallet:

"The finished consumer foods index inched up 0.1 percent in April, subsequent to a 0.5-percent gain in the prior month. Prices for eggs for fresh use increased 2.4 percent, after surging 29.2 percent in March. The index for finfish and shellfish also rose less than it had in the previous month, while pork prices turned down in April. The indexes for beef and veal and for processed young chickens decreased at quicker rates than they had a month earlier. Alternatively, prices for fresh and dry vegetables jumped 18.1 percent in April, compared with a 3.7-percent increase in the preceding month. The indexes for fresh fruits and melons and for processed fruits and vegetables also rose more than they had in March, while prices for dairy products fell less than in the prior month.

The index for finished consumer goods excluding foods and energy went up 0.1 percent in April, following a 0.2-percent increase in March. In April, rising prices for alcoholic beverages, mobile homes, household furniture, book publishing, and sporting and athletic goods slightly outweighed falling prices for passenger cars; periodical circulation; women's, girls', and infants' apparel; and sanitary paper products."

Excluding food and energy segments is specious:  You don't live without food - and without energy there's no life on earth.  Why these numbers are batted around likely has more to do with "feel good" reporting than much of anything else.  Sort of like assessing the environment without land and water.

The Forex and Gold Dance

A reader wrote in to advise us that he was a bit confused by the movement of dollars and gold on Monday.  He was under the impression that gold had made its big down move on a day when the dollar was also getting trounced.  His question: "Is the people's economist nuts?"  Well, not really.  I didn't get into one of my typical "Ask him what time it is and he will build you a watch factory" kind of answers, but the nubbins of the advice was to watch the near-real-time charts and skip the talking heads.  Sure enough, that made sense:

"Thanks George for your reply. I guess the news report that I was basing my question on, was old news because it was about how poorly the dollar was performing. That story was being released on the day gold was dropping so it didn't add up to me."

They'll do that (I call it refried news.) Moral of the story: When you are looking for correlations, double check the time base. It's not perfect, but close enough that you'll see the noise.

Another "Big One"

Except from reading the web bot reports that we're going to have a series of big earthquakes and that the last one will be the mega quake this summer, I wouldn't care too much about the 7.4 today 500-miles north of New Zealand.  But if my count is right, we may have had three now: The ones up in northeastern Siberia, the Macquarie Island 8.0 and now a 7.4 today.  Worst case count - two big ones to go.

New Bot Run

With the conclusion of ALTA 1006 plans are being laid for the next web bot run.  Forgot to ask Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com what the number will be, but when the subscriptions open, I will post a link.  Unfamiliar sounding?  This is our large-scale linguistic sampling project that seemingly indicates major future developments (the big quake to come this summer, shortages right after Memorial day) and such based on immediacy and impact values of words.  I'll tell you when it starts, but the data pipe will be turned on May 29th to begin (as Cliff so indelicately calls it) "sucking spew" off the 'net and making sense of it.  I only put the broadest references on here (by permission) but the whole runs are incredibly interesting. Brain food.  First post due around June 10.  Time target for this run will be August to December, because we transition into a "conflict" period (linguistically)  about the end of August. 

Huge Wet Spot

The Northeast part of the country is still wet - and in a curious rhyme, it's the worst rainfall and flooding since the 1930's.  Which, considering my work says we are just finishing up the "bounce" from the first wave down on the Second Great Depression's kick off (the tech bust of 2000 being the modern analog to 1929) the timing is not surprising.

On the flip side of things, Britain which had too much rain a while back is now in the grips of a drought.

The US drought monitor doesn't look too bad, except in New Mexico and extreme south Texas.  The drought monitor is updated Tuesday mornings.

Chanchu's Track

The super typhoon is now pretty much through the Philippines where it did millions in damage, but as it may gain strength before hitting China, officials there are quite worried.

TSA and the Constitution-Free Zones

Elaine, back from her Mother's Day travels to visit sons in the Phoenix area, told me about her adventures at Sky Harbor Airport Monday.  "You've been selected for secondary screening," she was informed.  So, she had to remove her jewelry (a non-trivial task) and metal/turquoise belt, and was put into what she describes as a Plexiglas box.  There, with no instruction on what was going to happen next, she experienced lots of "puffs" of air - apparently in an attempt to see if she smelled of cordite rather than good perfume. 

She was not amused by the whole thing, although she was a good sport about it - and she was able to return home.  Her major beef was it would have been nice if someone had told he what to expect - E is not a person whose hair you mess up without at least telling her it's going to happen. The closest thing to a crime she's ever committed is traveling while blonde.

Her experience is mild, though, compared to people who have been through similar "secondary screening." 

Is Everybody Happy?

George Bush's speech last night on immigration wasn't bad - there was a little something in it for everyone.  Sadly, the president didn't lay out how we deal with the "Gingrich Problem" - named for Newt Gingrich pointing out that 11-million illegals being granted amnesty means up to 36-million coming into the country.  Guard units are piping up that they're ready.

Readers have their impressions, too.  Here's a typical email:

"Tonight was Scout night so I missed the Prez's speech. Decided to surf around a little when I got home to see what the reaction was. WOW ... People are HOT.

The "Bush walks on water" crowd if they are saying anything at all are spewing the same kind of crap TOWARDS HIM that they used to reserve for those who were not knee jerk Bush Bots. Those who still knee jerk support him were NOT coming and and saying anything to defend him'

My short AND long analysis of the speech (based upon my reading of the various Internet Boards tonight): He just p*ssed off a good chunk of the Republican Base. At least the base that is of working age and is not part of the Corporate Mgt/Inherited Wealth class.

The way people are reacting to this I would not put it past someone or group to try engage in some sort of "Huey Long" style solution action.

WOW ... I can't believe how much he p*ssed people off."

The people's economist  has a theory:  The really big issues facing America should be addressed in non-election years.  Politicians are presently in their fund-raising mode right now:  Going before audiences of potential contributors to puff up their fall election media budgets and spinning the facts and their hinted at actions to seduce the checkbook interests of whatever group they're before.  If a corporate group with a deep pocket wants, I'd bet they could find any number of CONgressmen tell them the sun will rise in the west - it's that bad.

It Ain't Me, Babe

Bellsouth says it has "no indication" that it turned over records to the NSA super database project.  The good news from the NSA spy case:  Properly coordinated with local law enforcement surveillance, this might tell us the real pizza delivery times in various neighborhoods. I've always suspected poor folks got colder pizza than the rich...

Brazil Violence Grows

Another day of rioting and domestic terrorism by gangs in Brazil with 80-dead so far.  I'm not sure when rioting gangs cross the line from crime to rebellion/civil war, but there's got to be one somewhere.  No one's going to hold up a flag or ring a bell when it's crossed, but something to ponder.  (Beats thinking about work, right?)

Not Disabled

A double amputee from New Zealand has reached the top of Mount Everest. This goes a long way toward proving something I've long held: The most dangerous disabilities are not loss of limbs but rather the loss of will, resolve, and determination.  ("Can do"  "kick ass" attitudes are something I hold in ultimate regard.)

Still, the world being a crazy place, I wonder if he'll be allowed a blue special parking pass upon his return?  He certain qualifies for one - or does he?

Bolivia's Corporate Appeasement

The president of Bolivia is trying to walk a curious tightrope.  His country, as you know has nationalized natural gas fields, but what he's telling audiences is that corporations will still be able to make a profit from their investments in his country.  The tightrope is this:  If oil companies are reassured that their shareholders won't be horribly screwed (and they can make some pesos), the corps won't push their bought-and-paid-for corpgovs into taking military action against Bolivia.  If the pesos come up short, look for agitation/assassination and the usual "solutions" to such renegade indigenous people's efforts to benefit from the ground they walk on.

Email of the Day

I love when my subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com write in - and letters like this one make getting up in the morning fun:

Hi George,

Now you've done it. In reading the Peoplenomics weekly discussion, you made me realize something very disturbing that I had never considered. We don't actually pay tax on capital gains. We really pay taxes on a loss of purchasing power, or in other words, a double tax.   (I love it when lights go on from reading Peoplenomics. - G)

In your example of gold's taxable capitol gains over time, in reality, the gold always holds its intrinsic value, and that remains overall the same (except for small variations due to speculators). That means, we are really paying tax on the LOSS of the value of FRNs, not real gains in value of gold.  (uh huh...)

So, we first lose purchasing power of our money through inflation, then we're taxed on that loss as capitol gains. And this doesn't even take into consideration the tax we pay when we MAKE the money through labor to buy the item (in your example, gold) in the first place.

I've always tried to explain to others that prices don't go up, the purchasing power of the dollar is going down. But, I'd never considered that we're actually taxed on that loss, too. Grrrrrrrrrrr   (which is why I call them "banksters")

Anyway, thought I'd just write to thank you for your, as usual, excellent postings on your subscription side (and of course your free side, too).

Sincerely, and a happy subscriber

The mantra, grasshopper, is "Prices don't go up, they just print more money."

Monday May 15, 2006

Gold Pullback

The first item on the agenda this morning is no doubt the gold pullback.  As I explained to readers of our subscription service, www.peoplenomics.com, one way to look at gold is to consider that its pricing is inversely related to the valuation of the US dollar.  That is to say that today, with the US dollar showing some signs of strength in the short term, we are likely to see gold decline a bit until the underlying dollar decline reasserts itself.  More coffee.

I'm not the only one with a "dollar crash buoys gold" kind view.  But not before a good-sized pullback, figures one guru. Think $575.

You'll see on my weekly chart at the bottom of the page, I added a second X axis so you could see where the time line of present day is, compared with the 1929 period and after.

Lammert, Annotated

With the Dow off 203 points last week, one might sense we're back at the precipice of a great slide down into the second leg down of the Second Depression, an event obscured by the 9/11 terror attacks which provided the necessary attention shift and thus, blinded the public to recognizing the larger picture of the historical economic replay of events.  Nevertheless, the Second Depression we're now in has hung on because of the super saturation of debt, facilitated by global communications and a penchant for printing paper instruments. It's America's biggest export by far.

With this in mind, our resident fractal whiz sees time running out... (my notes in blue)

"George, the US second grand fractal which began in 1858 had a previous base of approximately of 70 years. The aging second fractal is composed of two generational subcycles:1858 -1932 ... 74 years... and 1932 to possibly 2006 ... possibly an identical 74 year old twin. (Fits with our Second Depression scenario)

In the last five days of predicted recent nonlinear valuation decay activity ... the greatest of the formerly great late1990's I.T. new paradigm proxies: the NASDAQ 100, has given up over 6 months of valuations. A tell tale lower low gap is seen between the last two trading days for NDX.  (the Tech bubble is still collapsing)

On the other hand ,GM serves to represent the true conundrum of 2006. It's valuation fractals are behaving in a perfectly misleading, lulling, comforting and contrary fashion having climbed during all of the recent carnage in a scoffing 4.5/12-13/10 of 10-13 maximum growth fractal evolution. It is the upscale caricature of its slightly less well performing 29 composite DJ sister equities. The recent valuations of GM provide the appropriate obfuscation at this probable historical nonlinear turning point. Its recent daily fractal growth is in perfect X/2.5X/2X form. Because GM is growing, there is a sense of stability ... a sense of reassuring continuity... a sense of linearity. If the valuations of America's bankrupt former smokestack powerhouse is behaving OK, maybe its macrocosm correlate, America is doing OK. (As goes GM, so goes the world - and GM's in a heap-o-hurt.)

A broken clock is exactly correct twice a day. This alcove for saturation macroeconomics has observed equity, debt market, and commodity valuation fractal evolution in the context of recurrently attempting to identify and prognosticate the exact timing for the US's second 140 year plus fractal nonlinear end. A predicted end now might be perceived in the context of a broken clock's repetitive readings with its constant minute and hour hand's positions. However, there is ample evidence that this search has been guided by lower time order fractals that have been occurring since 2003 in a x/2.5x/2.5x fashion. (The normal or expected fractal patterns have changed since 2003, and I suspect it changed in 2001/2002 as government started seriously propping things up.)

These recurrent lower time order fractal patterns suggest a probable maximal x/2.5x/2.5x fractal extension series for the final secondary lower growth phase to the US summation Wilshire's March 2000 high. Was 6 May 2006 the secondary ending high for the Wilshire for this 148 year old fractal? History will soon judge. The Monday European markets will provide some advance short term direction to this query.   (Good call: England is down 2.15% as we push bytes this morning, France is down 1.34% and Germany is down 1.35% - Here's a link to Euro indices.)

The devolution, from an internally consistent fractal perspective, could now be underway. Nevertheless, when it does occur- it will not be a 1937 decay equivalent.  (My time-scale chart says we're not there yet).

 The debtor of last resort after the 29 crash was the US government. After the 2000 slow motion crash of the IT bubble, the US Federal Reserve, the lending industries and corporations have placed the US citizen in the primary role of debtor of last resort. Enticed and entrapped American consumers have saturated themselves with debt and overpriced and overproduced assets. As this second subcycle generational saturation area unravels, asset valuation decay will be sudden, unprecedented, and unequalled in discontinuity.  (e.g. Expect a big hit.)

March 2000 was not Sept-October 1929. But perhaps May 2006 is April 1932. The borrowers of last resort: the American consumer and the tax refunding and war borrowing US government are unknowingly near exhaustion. The American president with low unemployment, continued tax rebates, and recent hefty tax revenues is perhaps as unsuspecting of the deterministic fractal valuation events soon to unfold as is his increasingly dissatisfied public. Mr. Hoover with his ample treasury had a relatively enviable position.

The diminishing x/2.5/2.5x maximal growth sequences: wherein each successive base is found in the terminal growth fractals of the preceding sequence is as follows:

30/75/75 weeks

13/32-33/32-332 days

3/7/7 days

.4 day/1 day/1 day

As well: using two possible daily base sequences incorporating the peak of the 75 th week 3rd fractal; a maximal 26/65 daily :: x/2.5x sequence or alternatively a 30/60 day :: x/2x sequence can be defined. It would be fractally appropriate for the second grand fractal of 140 plus years to break down .... at the end of an apical .... second daily fractal sequence.  (Timing discussion, but if you're still in the market, think of "catch falling knives")

Gary Lammert

"Shortage" Trend Tracker

Although it's not scaled, Google has a really cool way of tracking word frequency if you're into that kind of thing (we are, but it's a do-it-ourselves approach because scaling is important.  nevertheless, click here to take a long-term view of the word "shortage" from Google's Trend Lab.

Another interesting word to track is the word "pandemic" which you'll see was popping up a lot in January/February of this year, but has since quieted down significantly.

Border Line

George Bush will be doing a prime time speech tonight on the Mexican non-border.  He'll be proposing the use of National Guard Troops - a reasonable idea in most times, but I thought most were off in Oilstan fighting?

A 36-Million Illegal Question.  What the president and most corporately owned members of CONgress won't tell you is that this immigration deal pending in Washington will allow up to 36-million illegals to come flooding into the country.  Not my claim - it's from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Obvious the "Decider" isn't going to mention the real size of the problem.

I would suggest that you call, email, or write to your members of CONgress.  But, I wonder if any of them can read anything that's not on a check.

Lest you think I am making too big a deal out of how bad our corporately bought CONgress is, click here to read Wayne Madsen's state-by-state GOP scandal scorecard.  It's an eye opener. Not that democorps are any better, mind you.  You couldn't give me elitists like Hillary on a bet.  Remember it was her hubby who started talking about the "buffer zone" with Mexico (a sort of soft [porous] border).

This is all part of the Council on Foreign Relation's push to establish a "North American economic and security community."  Translation: We become the United States of CanMexico.  Bet me it'll happen by 2010?

Like I said,; George Bush will try to sidestep real protection because corporations are having way too much fun using cut rate illegals for things like the home building industry.  Agriculture.  And the errant stooges of corruption to the south of us haven't thought much of anything through, least of all who is going to pay for this.  Here's a hint (and done without a think tank/non-profit/grant at that):  The shrinking Middle Class in America will pay.  Let's give away more health care to non-residents, but charge those of us who live here legally!  Anchor babies?  Sure...have some more.

Devolution of Brazil

Crime gangs in Brazil have killed 52 people - 35 of them police - in the country's worst ever outbreak of violence.

Buying off Iran?

The EU sounds like they are trying to play the game of appeasement with Iran.  Offering a generous smorgasbord of economic and technical aid if they will just stop enriching uranium.  Of course, being a sovereign state and all (all means not having a US or British installed government) they aren't going to budge.  And for that reason the Bush administration is looking for even a small provocation to strike out on another war front.  Please disregard the facts that such US wars (promoted by neoCON's like Paul Wolfowitz, now the chief bankster at the World Bank) have been failures to date.  Or, as one reader remarked over the weekend in an email "Sort of makes the Vietnam War look successful.

The Bush administration has pretty much free rein so far to pursue such budgetary self-destruction, in part, because the American people are just plain dumb - present company excepted.  We're too busy to read and the media is too eager to run "press release rewrite" news operations.  Source documents?  Forget about it.   As one analyst writes.

"The main argument against Iran is that Iran is enriching uranium. Under the “Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” (NPT) [16], all members are guaranteed the right to enrich uranium.

Article four of the treaty states that: “Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with articles I and II of this Treaty.”

This clearly gives Iran and other member states the right to do research and enrich uranium. So what Iran is doing is totally legal. In contrast we see that all the nuclear states such as Great Britain, Russia, China, France, and United States are in violation of this treaty. The treaty clearly states that nuclear powers have to disarm. "

Now, this is why the UN is no more likely than a snowball in hell to vote in favor of a pre-emptive war on Iran.  Their members can read.

Volcano Active

Indonesia's Mount Merapi is gushing big time. 

China's Katrina - Rita

Chanchu is the make of the first big typhoon of the season.  China is nervously awaiting its arrival fearing it will be a Katrina/Rita sized disaster.

News from Elliott Wave International

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George Ure, The People's Economist

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