A Week for the Books

You should be aware that at even though the market closed on Friday with the Dow down a few points from the previous day, the week nevertheless was the first ever close over 12,000 for the Dow, if I'm reading things right.  A lot of pundits are figuring that the good times will continue to roll, too, as earning come out.

As we explained yesterday, there's a wonderful scheme going on at the moment which means the worse the housing market, the better the Dow should do.  The mechanism to watch is this:  As non-performing loans pop up in bank portfolios, they are bundled and sold off to hedge funds (such unlisted securities are marginable at 10%.  Then, hedge funds turn around and

 leverage these assets into more stock ownership.  No one is doing anything wrong, but you can see the dynamic: the worse things go in housing, the money money the hedge funds will have to play with.

It's even get better when the SEC votes to reduce margin requirements which will reduce margin requirements for "institutional players" - meaning, the small investor gets second class treatment again.

Families Valued

We find its interesting to note that although illegal immigrants in the US make way less than majority and legals, they manage to send $45-billion a year to Mexico and other countries south of the border. Headlines the Washington Post: "Poverty is Relative".

Just for the sake of putting a number to it, I clicked over to the CIA World Factbook and discovered that at the official exchange rate, the Mexico GDP is $693-billion (2005) so a $40-billion contribution to that economy means that illegals are sending home 5.7% of Mexico's economy. I'm not claiming that $40-billion goes to Mexico, but it's close to that, I'd wager.

Meanwhile, the state of Arizona is being sued by an (illegal) immigrant "rights" group.  Arizona, you see has been cracking down on money sent south alleging drug money payments.  T'ain't so says the suit against the state.
 

Policy question:  If it were absolutely impossible to wire transfer or send money overseas, would illegal immigration slow?

Hillary's Kidding, right?

Hillary Clinton admitted in a debate with  her challenger in New York Friday that "she has though about running for the presidency in 2008, but said she is committed to running for Senate re-election."  We won't kid you about our anti-Hillary feelings, but this is absurd doubletalk.  Of course she's running and of course she's part of the powers-that-be cabal. Are New York voters stoopid?  Or, is this just America's way of keeping our "elected aristocracies" in power?

CNN in Trouble

The Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee (A republicorp) want's CNN reporters embedded in Iraq kicked out for CNN's news decision to air a video of the killing of am American soldier. Arguments on this are news/journalist freedoms to report on the one side, and airing of enemy propaganda on the other.

The Money Leash

North Korea may have tested one nuke, but whether they will get around to number two (and beyond) may depend on how much the Pyong Yansters like dough.  China has announced bank transfers to North Korea are being stopped in response to world pressure to enforce sanctions.

Not that the West can sleep easily.  Michelle Malkin has been reading missile specs and figures moves of the US is in rant of Taepo Dong 2 missiles already.

Hits and Missiles

OK, so long as I brought it up, as we wander headfirst through our "revolution/rebellion/conflict" period, you may have noticed a huge number of stories in the past week about missiles.  Check it out:

• Raytheon is planning to test an anti-missile system for airports.

• Canadians are debating whether to support the US missile defense plan.

• The Taiwan Air Force has been doing east coast of Taiwan night missile tests. Message to China?

• The US bunker buster missile program progressed this week through sled tests.

• Egypt may have a new type of surface to air missile.

• India says it is going ahead with its Trishul anti-missile system.

All of which wouldn't be a big deal, except that Russia has been making a lot of noise lately about the US Ballistic Missile Defense plans, and with the US talking about missiles in Eastern Europe (once the Soviet's back yard) the Russian rumbles might mean something.  Seems to us like more "pressurizing" on the military side of things.

Lloyds of Buffett

Who would have ever thought Warren Buffett would have to rescue the Lloyds Names?

Kias for Peanuts?

Sort of: Kia has broken ground for a new assembly plant in Georgia.

Layoffs: It's the real thing at PepsiCo

Two Frito-Lay plants are being closed here in Texas and out in Hawaii.  Crunch.

Peoplenomics: The Slow Death of GM?

I have to face the music almost daily on some of my investment calls. Did I think oil would be hovering around $60-a barrel right now? No. I expected it to be up around $80-90. My failure? To understand the degree to which the petroleum industry is paying back the general Republican CONgress for past favors and making a down payment of future ones by moving energy prices lower just before the election. But that in itself would not have fueled the kind of blow-off we're seeing in the Dow the past few weeks, nor would it explain the global economy. Or would it? This week, some frank speaking about GM, biodiesel, cars, what's ahead, and what Peak Oil has to do with it. And oh, did you know BMW started off in mini cars in the 1950's?

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Friday October 20, 2006

Secrets Revealed Continues

This weekend for subscribers to our Peoplenomics premium service, we'll explore something that in the Austrian School of Economics is called the "crack-up boom."  It's like the last gasp of an economy before a big decline and then recognition that "Oops!  We're in a Depression."  And while that's going on, we're also in the midst of what the web bot project properly labeled a year or so back as a period of "Secrets Revealed."

There's also plenty of evidence to suggest that these to forces have recently grown to include one more macro trend; namely the "conflict/revolution/rebellion" context.  So in reading the days headlines, we can take many stories and assign them to either "Last Boom" (LB), "Secrets Revealed" (SR), or "Conflict/Rebellion/Revolution" (CRR) and capture nearly all of the life defining directions behind the headlines.

One example in our (SR) department is the order issued yesterday by a federal judge that tells the Bush administration to release Dick Cheney's visitor logs. Government attorneys for the Bush group call the Washington Post's request filed back in June, little more than a fishing trip.  One the other hand, with the recent revelations about dirty CONgressmen and Abramoff payoffs, the Post may have good reason to be interested in who's talking to Dick. No, I don't expect the White House to release the records.  Why?  If the administration appeals, they might find some grounds to get the case in front of the Bush appointed Supreme Court with Dick's duck hunting sidekick Justice Scalia might be able to put together a "legal" roadblock to the Post's information request.  Obvious, at least to me, is the appropriateness of a paraphrasing of Shakespeare: "The Veep doth protest too much, methinks."

"Stepping on the Vietnam Rake"

Over in our (CRR) department, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have continued to be a bloody mess.  And the Russian "Kommersant" series "Stepping on the Vietnam Rake" is worth a read as October continues to be the dirtiest month of the Iraq War thus far. While the failure to secure Baghdad is becoming clear in the press, the attacks around the "country" seemingly continue to increase in frequency and magnitude.

In Afghanistan, suicide bombers are hard at work, blowing up themselves and victims, missing Monday's start of Eid al-Fitr, the most important celebration in the Islamic calendar according to the Washington Post's coverage.

Invoking al Qaida

Another place where we see (CRR) at play is in Somalia where the interim president says the country is being besieged by "Islamists under al Qaida", as he makes a pitch for more US backing for the anti insurgency campaign.

The Boom that Isn't

Is this the Last Boom (LB)?  Certainly looks that way.  But it could run a lot further.  The reason why is that there's a fair amount of coverage about the Dow Jones closing this week over the 12,000 mark.  Now, as I've written to you before, the mark is meaningless when you take six years of inflation into account, but that is not likely to deter people from throwing good money after bad in trying to regain once held profits. David Milstead's article for the Rocky Mountain news is exactly on point headlining that the "Boarder market still climbing out of post-2000 hole." Just so.

My present thinking runs something like this: I will hold my gold and silver positions (both ounces) and wait for the crack up boom to propel the precious metals to new highs.  Perhaps $1,200 for gold and $20 for silver, something like that. Not that I would bail then, but I'd think about it, for sure.

Once a good deflationary spanking is in sight, I might roll out of PM's and into a bank that will let me decide which of its portfolio of international currencies I will want funds in. (Won't tell you which bank(s), but they exist where you can roll between currencies in your account).  My notion is that if the US dollar - at the end of the boom - is trashed, there may be an opportunity for comparative gain by being in something other than dollars.  Swiss francs, Yuan, who knows today.

One reason to be bullish on metals is the inflationary impact of Russia buying US dollars - something that could be inflationary according to ex Fed Boss Alan Greenspan.

And that's if the market doesn't crash next week and the paper-is-money gang figures how to keep the bubble blown up but not blowing up. And that's largely up to the Fed which in turn is largely watching the housing bubble for clues.

Why A Record Dow:

A friend in one of the big NYC investment firms (100 block of Broad St.) advised me this week that what's going on at the moment as real estate loans go "non-performing" is this:  The banks see that the number of non-performers is going up, so they bundle up a bunch of loans and sell off the (discounted) bundles to hedge funds which use them as collateral in the derivatives market.

As you know, right now there's a 50% margin requirement for all the players on Wall Street.  But the SEC is looking at a change in regulations which would cut margin requirements to below the 50% level for hedge funds.  Now, if you're wondering why the Dow and the NYSE stocks would go up, think about it:  Looser margin requirements means more demand for stocks - and more upward price pressure. 

I can just hear the strategy of the hedge fund operators now.  "In the old days, we had to put up 50% to buy stocks outright, so for every $100, we could buy $50 on margin.  But with the change, we might be able to buy "discounted" (junk) real estate loans (perhaps as CMO's?), use that at collateral (coming under the changes) and increase our leverage down on Wall Street. 

Clever, huh?  Everyone "wins".  The bank offloads junk loans, the hedge funds collateralize them and use them as "security" and then borrow up to their *sses in the stock market.  Which drives up the market (to wit, this week's US gains and Dow "record") and the republicorp set up a fine windfall for their contributors.  Fine example of boardroom democracy in action, don't you think?

As my friend the Wandering Texas pulled out of the local paper in Dallas while he's back 'in country' for a while, there's plenty of grist for this new money mill: "Dallas foreclosure rate rose 49% from same period last year. Now at highest level since peak of 80's. Fueling the rise, interest rate hikes, rising cost of living, consumer debt, and aggressive lending practices."  Boy, won't that give banks more to offload to the hedge funds? Which in turn will fuel stock prices.  Yup, crack up boom stuff.

Well, enough for now, don't want to give away the whole drift of this weekend's Peoplenomics report....but you can see how the mechanics of the current rally are working - all in anticipation of even better times to come until everyone figures out the deal.  Remember where you heard it.

Oh, one more thing.  Remember when you heard it.  This is the anniversary of the 1987 Block Monday Crash on Wall Street.  Happy Anniversary?

Shake Up

Peru.  6.5

Quake Question

Most of the answers coming back to our question about where's the brick and tile (from south America) building that may tell us which city will be the epicenter for a quake between now and December 21st?  We've got candidates from most of the California cities (Union station in LA and The Presidio in SF are frontrunners) but none elsewhere outside of CA. 

Great eBay Ad

Ham radio hobbyists and photographers will find this of interest.  I happened to catch an ad on eBay yesterday for a Dentron GLA-100B linear amplifier.  I periodically watch the price of such units because I have one (converted for higher power using Svetlana EL-509's).  But I was really impressed with the use of the Time Magazine in the ad to give someone unfamiliar with these little amps a sense of just how small they are. 

I'm finishing up an eBook on advertising, but this is a good example of what Asian new product photographers often do: put a pack of cigarettes of a known brand into a picture so that someone can see relatively how big or small something is.  Just one of the hints from the new ebook, but worth noting if you're in new product development or advertising and aren't familiar with the concept.

Thursday October 19, 2006

Morgellons Breakthrough?

Several readers have sent in links to a story on a web site headlined: "Morgellons Disease: New Lab Finding Point to Silicone/Silica and High Density Polyethylene Fibers, Are These Now Being Sprayed on Means and Vegetables?"  You need to read this report.

Now, is it true?  Is this the source of Morgellons?  I put the question to Randy Wymore, head of Morgellons Research at Oklahoma State University.  The short answer is probably not, while it's great work, this doesn't look like the breakthrough solution to the Morgellons mystery:

Dear George,

I have been asked to comment about the results in a manuscript, by Dr. H. Staninger, that discuss Morgellons Disease. First, I am very happy that other professional researchers are involving themselves in trying understand this perplexing disease. There are 3 central points that I will comment on:

1) The composition of the outer casing is made up of high density polyethylene (HDPE) fibers. The Morgellons fibers that I have examined do not seem to have an outer casing. The red and blue fibers seem to be homogenous throughout. We have concentrated on the red & blue fibers because they have been the largest point of contention from the medical community. As many will point out, "We don't grow red & blue fibers." Agreed, we do not. On the other hand, the red & blue fibers ARE most definitely present, even under unbroken, unscarred and non-lesioned skin. That is why the colored fibers have been the focus of research here at OSU-CHS. The red and blue fibers can be placed in incredibly harsh solvents and detergents, placed in oxidizing and reducing environments and even heated to near boiling in these liquids with no change in the macro- or microscopic appearance of the fibers. Some of the solvent/temperature combinations would readily break down HDPE, but we did not observe this. If the red & blue fibers were encased with HDPE either the FTIR spectroscopy or the gas chromatography would have easily detected this, as polyethylene materials, whether high density or low density are in common organic compounds and in all of the databases. The gas chromatograph experiments heated the fibers to ~1,400 F and this is many hundreds of degrees higher than the boiling temperature of HDPE, but no volatile organics were given off that would indicate HDPE. Now, I am in no way dismissing the results of the manuscript in question. There are many different fibers that have been described, some of which I have seen, and it is possible that a different type of fiber was analyzed and found to contain HDPE. Because our formal research is in such preliminary stages, including the development of an epidemiology study, there is also the possibility that Morgellons Disease may have more than one causative agent involved. I have no reason to think that, but it remains a possibility.

2) The use of HDPE throughout the nanotechnology world to encapsulate viral genetic material. I am definitely no expert on this topic. In trying to understand some of the difficult to comprehend aspects of Morgellons Disease I have read some literature on the topic of nanotechnology. I am not aware of the widespread use of HDPE for the purpose mentioned in the manuscript. There were 2 references in the manuscript for the widespread use of HDPE for this purpose (21 & 22). Unfortunately, #21 is self-referencing the manuscript and #22 is a web-link that I could not get to work, so I was not able to view the basis author's contention on this matter. A quick pubmed search did not reveal any papers that discussed this topic. Someone who works in the nano-technology world would be better qualified than me to address this point. It may well be commonly used, but until references can be obtained, it is impossible to comment on in a proper fashion.

3) The silica/silicon connection. I am neither a pathologist nor a histologist, and so I would not recognize the differences silica or silicon from diamonds. For me, looking at the images meant very little due to my lack of any basic experience on this subject. As with all science, once other labs will need to replicate the results that are presented. I believe that this paper has (or will be, I'm not sure) submitted to a pathology journal. I am sure that one or more reviewers of the manuscript will have histology experience and hopefully some experience with silicon/silica damage to tissue.

I hope that Dr. Staninger and other scientists will continue to work on various aspects of Morgellons Disease. The Morgellons population is suffering greatly and many more hands are needed to get to the bottom of this mystery and devise a strategy that will offer an effective and definitive cure.

Please excuse any typos; writing a semi-coherent response at 5:55 AM with only 1 cup of coffee is not easy an easy task!

Sincerely,

Randy

Beyond the Football Plot

Department of Homeland Security officials say the rumor from an Islamist web site, that seven US football games would be attacked this coming weekend, is not credible.  While we certainly hope the assessment (that the threat is not credible) is correct, we note that there have been many recent reports of jihadists warning their ilk to leave the USA and such.  And, as another data point, Sunday is near the end of Ramadan, and as Muslims know, the last 10-nights of Ramadan are special.  The date of the rumored plot is Sunday, October 22, and the last day of Ramadan this year.

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As I read the headlines, it seems Ramadan brings out the best - and worst - in Muslims, depending on their interpretation of the faith.  On the good side, we read about how the Muslim community is Newark is helping the homeless.  On the bad, we note the increase is US combat deaths in Iraq.  Not only are US combat deaths up, but as the National Review reports, the danger for non-Muslims in Iraq is increasing daily as the civil war propagates something that might be fairly labeled "genocide lite."

Even George Bush is now admitting that there may be some comparisons with the Vietnam War,  and especially with the Têt Offensive. That's quite a step for Bush, although the presence of Henry Kissinger as an Iraq War policy advisor may be driving this recognition of reality. 

While British prime minister Tony Blair has been pushing for Muslim women to lift their veils and integrate fully into Western culture, many opinion leaders are offering support of the notion that the veils should be abandoned. The issue of veils and integration into Western group-look has been percolating in the UK because of a teacher (Muslim) who wants to wear her veil at work.

The veil is an interesting problem.  On the pro veil side of the argument, I can readily see how a veil is an "anti-marketing" tool.  No question about it, here in the land of sexual marketing (take Sex in the City and Bay Watch, as a couple of examples) a veil is a statement of "No, thanks, we'll follow a different tradition."

The West meantime is going completely bonkers on identification - way off the scale in the other direction.  While Muslims are seeking to protect the vision of their women, folks like Dick Daley in Chicago are pushing to get every street corner in the city covered by a surveillance camera by 2016.  A face covered by a veil is a simple enough way to thwart facial recognition planned for behind the cameras. This while the US considers a scheme to electronically "tag" every airline passenger!

Thus as the Universe operates in paradoxical ways, the issue of Muslim women wearing veils may find itself on the same side of the fight over the right to privacy as strict Constitutionalists.

The Iraq War meantime, has - and continues to be - over oil, not veils.  And in this sense, the Iraq War is somewhat of a success because as one report headlines, "Bush's Petro-Cartel Almost Has Iraq's Oil."  I expect when that's secured, our troops will come home.  Meantime, I'll take my occasional 2-minutes of football on TV, especially this weekend.

Republicorps Sucking

Here's a "Duh" headline for you: "Approval of Republicans at record low: poll" Gee, you think the public might change out a few of these page bending, bribe taking, trough sucking corporate hirelings at the polls?  Well, regardless, the web bot project says "Constitutional crisis likely ahead" and it could start the day before the elections and last past Turkey Day.  Even though we've been talking about this for a while, it's starting to come out in "prequel" form in some of the MSM (mainstream media) such as the NY Times which says chaos may follow elections because of new laws and machines.  Two "Duhs" in one story.  How about that?

Threatening NK

George Bush is talking tough about stopping any further nuclear moves by North Korea. Bet this has kept Air Force planners busy...gotta be some "big stick" planning going on. Meantime, North Korea has advised China of plans for 3-more nuke tests.

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Our worried bot project friends at www.halfpasthuman.com keep looking at how North Korea is in a seismically sensitive area - and wondering what a largish underground nuke might spawn in the way of Pacific Plate movement.  Point taken.

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Iran is watching the whole North Korea thing unmoved.

Speaking of Quakes

Folks on the San Francisco Peninsula are in for a new wrinkle: When selling a home, they will have to disclose earthquake hazards at least in most hazardous areas.

Quake Question

Web Bot crew is worried the Hawaii quake may not have been "It" in terms of the Big One and there may be another between now and December 21st.  So here's the question:  What is a "pride of the city" kind of 3-4 story brick and tile (from South America) landmark on the West Coast? One of our sources says "How about Coit Tower in San Francisco?"

Solve this one right and you might have the the location of the next big quake. 3-4 story building built of South American brick/tiles.  Other guesses?  Click here to send 'em in. 

Happy Thought on Housing

There's a report from CNN that housing starts may be picking up again.  This is either good news or a dead-cat bounce.

If You Haven't Had Breakfast

...don't read this headline:   "Man dismembers girlfriend in (New Orleans) Quarter, cooks body parts."  Gives new (sick) meaning to having someone over for dinner...

Wednesday October 18, 2006

Three Freedoms: Going, Going...

There are three stories, each one of which has profound implications for Constitutionalists and those of us who still hold to the Bill of Rights and other traditions of the American system of government which hold our rapt attention today; partly because of the "window" the web bot project has outlined for this coming weekend, and partly because the hold so much potential for abuse of power.  Here's the summary - the details follow:

• George Bush has signed a law eliminating the right of habeas corpus  for unlawful enemy combatants. 

• Your free use of the internet is in the gunsights of DHS's Michael Chertoff.

• DHS is moving toward a system that would require government permission to travel outside the United States.

Let's start at the top, shall we?  Yesterday George Bush signed a law that says the right of habeas corpus doesn't apply to "unlawful enemy combatants."  The "sales pitch" that accompanies this is you (as a presumably good American) don't have to worry because you're not an "enemy combatant."  While today that means supporting various al Qaida groups, there's nothing in the law that says supporting the Democratic Party couldn't qualify you in the future, depending on the whim of the Decider and disciples. Most stories seem to promote the idea that the law will be struck down - at least partially - by the US Supreme court.  But given the makeup of the High Court (think ducking hunting buddy of the VP, for example) I wouldn't be holding my breath for any major change.

It could be argued that "enemy combatants" shouldn't have the same rights as Americans, the difficulty becomes who is to decide the enemy combatant issue?  It's not like something that is decided in an open-to-appeal legal process with judicial oversight.  Because of this, I'd point out there's potential for abuse. Especially if you're one of those "terrorist supporting democrats."  Remember, we've already been told: "If you're not with us, you're against us."

Second item:  For years, I have been warning that at some point -- should the internet become too powerful a force to control, the government would step up and curtail the free and easy access to the internet.  Fast forward to today:  DHS boss Michael Chertoff is claiming that "We now have a capability of someone to radicalize themselves over the Internet."  To me, it sounds like some kind of groundwork being laid for a future move against the internet.

Papers please:  You may not read Edward Hasbrouck's blog often, but his report this week on the government's plans to require permission to leave the USA for travel is among the most frightening things I've seen in a long time.  What's coming he figures is a:

"Conversion of the Advance Passenger Information system (API or APIS) for international ship and plane travel into an advance permission system."

How would you like to live in a country where government permission is required in advance to visit a foreign country?  Well, that's now on the horizon - and starting January 8th of 2007 - two and a half months from now - you will need a US passport to re-enter America if you travel by air - and as Hasbrouck reminds us, permission to exit is the next step.

E Voting Questioned

Not that voting in the elections is certain to make a difference.  There are lots of questions being raised about the integrity of electronic voting systems. And not just the confessions of programmers who worked on US systems.   The latest is a report finding flaws in systems used for voting in Europe.

Condi's Sales Trip

Condi Rice is pushing China to slam the door on Chinese trade with North Korea.  This, as the North Korean's first bomb test was confirmed to be plutonium based, and as fears continue to grow that NK will test a thermonuclear device (e.g. hydrogen bomb) next. 

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Reader comment of the day: "Sending Rice to China is like sending coals to Newcastle..."

Bloody Month in Iraq

The killing of 9-US troops in the past day has increased the number of dead this month to 67.

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Also in "The Wars" today: Tamil rebels attacked Sri Lanka's south coast today.

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In Afghanistan, 13 civilians dead.

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A Muslim leader has been charged with murder in the Philippines.

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(And you were wondering why there's an ammunition shortage for us sportsmen and ranchers in the US!)

Digging out Buffalo

Six days into the clean up from the unexpected snow, lights are still out in some parts of Buffalo. FEMA is sending a check for $5-million but the state will be stuck for most of the costs..

IRS Snipes Snipes

Actor Wesley Snipes (Blade, etc.) has been indicted for tax fraud.  Doesn't mean he's guilty, but it does mean there's a lot of explaining to do. And to a skeptical audience in court.

Ken Lay: Not Guilty?

Well, here's the deal:  There's case law that says when a person is appeal a conviction, if they die before the case is decided, the whole case is thrown out.  So, officially, Ken Lay is in the grave with a clean record.  Don't know if such things matter at the Pearly Gates...

Music Wars

The battle of attorneys over the royalty issues of music video sites continues to heat up.  Latest development:  Universal Music has filed a couple of suits.

User Note:

I've turned on the RSS feeds again. http://urbansurvival.com/urbansurvival.rss and for users of the Atom newsreaders, http://urbansurvival.com/urbansurvival.atom.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

NK's Next Nuke

The world's atwitter this morning with all kinds of rumors about North Korea.  Evidently, they have plans for a second nuclear test, now that the first one has been confirmed.

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From the "Trouble over Bridged Waters" file (If you're under 30, the play off the Simon and Garfunkel song might be missed), Condi Rice and company are hoping that China will shut down a key bridge between China and North Korea - which supplies a lot of their consumer goods and fuel.  The Rice pitch is that China should follow the recently enacted UN sanctions.  But we'd bet a beer that China will find a way to weasel and they have the "manufacturingless" US sort of by the goanies.

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Pyong Yang keeps saying the UN sanctions are a "declaration of war" - not that the Korean War ever ended...

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But it's not like North Korea is off all by itself playing with piles of plutonium.  The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that as many as 30-countries may be on the verge of home brewed nukes. The nuclear club includes the US, Russia, China, Frank, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. That ought to give the war hawks plenty of countries to plan for bombings.

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Speaking of things nuclear and physics and such, check this out: A US- Russian team has managed to create Element 118 - the heaviest bit of matter yet. There's a catch: This new "
stuff" lasts less time than a $100 bill left over on payday: About one 10,000th of a second.  OK, maybe the Ben Franklin will go faster, but you got the idea.

Israeli Politics

Israel's president has been lying low following a police recommendation that he be charged with rape.  Uh...let me see: the rumored charges might include rape, sexual assault, fraud, wiretapping, bribery, obstructions...yup, sounds like presidential material to us.

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Meantime, by the latest reports, we're not looking for any progress on the Palestinian question.

Iraq's Civil War

91 people dead in Iraq in the past four days in Iraq reports the Seattle Times under the headline "Shiite-vs-Sunni violence turns into open warfare." If it walks like a civil war, talks like a civil war, don't you think that there's a chance that US policy wags have screwed up?  But hey, it's all about oil...I mean corporate profits....I mean revenge on terrorists...I mean democracy!  George Bush says we're staying in Iraq.

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Oil is back over $60-bucks.

Two Trains leave the Station, Redux

They collide in Rome, killing one, injuring 60+.

Dead Banker Files

Another key Russian Central banker was murdered recently in Russia - and three are being held in the case.  But we'd bet a few rubles that they were only following orders from higher ups.

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We have to mention the pressure mounting on Russian conglomerates as the representative Curt Weldon probe is widening in Pennsylvania.  As I see it, Weldon may be at risk of becoming another republicon.

Use 'em and Loose 'em

A new book out says the Bush administration ridiculed evangelical leaders.  So far, the right is standing by their man Bush, but congregations can read.

Our Kind of Editors

We noticed the Fort Worth Star Telegram put its House page scandal update under "National Briefs" today.  Sorta makes sense. That's what the whole story is about, I reckon...

Population Number

300,000,000 in the US now, plus or minus half of Mexico.

Alberta's Business Climate

One of the things I've been doing daily (I mean besides breathing, and such) is noticing how many times the term "shortage" pops up in the http://news.google.com search engine.  You know that's because this year we are supposed to begin our encounters with scarcity and a few other not-so-fun sounding events say the future predictive boys.  OK, so when I run the search I come up with "shortages" that strike me as odd.

Today, I'd draw your attention to the evolving shortage of burger flippers in Alberta. "OK, George, so what?"  Ah, the point.  This underscores on of the problems the whole globe will go through (over the next year or two) as things deteriorate on all fronts, social, economic, and so on.  You see, in classical economic terms, there is no shortage of labor - only a shortage of compensation to hire capable workers.

"But wait, George! (I can hear you thinking) If the burger joints paid more money, they would pull labor away from other industries - and that would drive labor price inflation." 

Business models are funny things:  I'm sure the problems of burger joints in Alberta could be solved with higher wages.  But while that might solve the HR issues, the gross profit margin would drop (GPM) and then you run smack into the question of whether the company can even theoretically remain profitable at anything approaching a real world volume, let alone in a price inflation driven decline.

So while there's a lot of general talk about the dangers of derivatives (and yes, that's a real problem), the whole economic doesn't end until we have a wholesale realization in board rooms that existing business models no longer work.  When that happens, you'll want to be as far from paper assets as you can get.

UnitedHealth Options

Things are getting ugly in another options backdating case.

World of Taxcraft

Seems virtual worlds Second Life and World of Warcraft are getting some real world tax scrutiny.  Second Life's economy is growing at 10-15% per month - and what we're waiting for is the definitive paper on economic collapses in virtual worlds - that'd be a lot more fun that the multi-agent Fed studies which are kinda dry reading...

Sex and the Clothes Horse

A new study out of UCLA says women tend to dress up more when ovulating.  I have to remember to save this one in case I'm ever asked to teach a Marketing 101 class...

Elaine and Ma Nature

Elaine took Panama Bates down to the Houston airport yesterday as he's off adventuring again in Panama.  What timing.  The trip was just in time to thoroughly wash the undersides of the car in 12" deep water standing water on many roadways as flooding hit the Galveston/Houston area. 10+ inches of rain in some areas of Houston. Only about 2 1/2" in the rain gauge here in arid East Texas, though. Still, our burn ban may come off this week, which would be nice.

Plan for Brownouts

The North American Electric Reliability Council has issues a reliability assessment - and the outlook is not good.  Key part:

"Demand for electricity is expected to increase over the next ten years by 19 percent in the U.S., but confirmed power capacity will increase by only 6 percent. Capacity margins are projected to drop below minimum target levels in Texas, New England, the Mid-Atlantic area, the Midwest, and the Rocky Mountain area, in the next two to three years, with other portions of the Northeastern U.S., Southwest, and Western U.S. falling below minimum target levels later in the period. In Canada, projected margins are adequate except in Western Canada, where additional resources will be needed as soon as 2008."

Talk Radio

On Steve Quayle's show tonight at 7 Eastern.

Monday October 16, 2004

Hawaii: Aftershocks and Cleanup

Aftershocks are still popping today following the big quake Sunday in Hawaii: The reports from people who experienced the earthquake in Hawaii are still coming in.  Here's a typical account:

"Hi George,

It's 11:30pm Hawaiian Standard time, and I just now got power back in my area above downtown Honolulu. At 7:08am this morning I felt a mild tremor as I was lying awake in bed, and I thought "Hmm... Earthquake". It didn't seriously worry me, as we sometimes feel a mild shaker here on the Island of Oahu when they have an earthquake over on the Big Island, some 200 miles distant. That's where the real action is, with the active volcano. Every year or two the volcano has a 6 richter quake, but we hardly feel those local quakes on the neighbor islands. The people on the Big Island have come to accept them as a way of life, also.

This morning was different. The mild shaking in Honolulu went on for 10-20 seconds, and then suddenly rose to the crescendo of a jackhammer! I was afraid my 3-story concrete walk-up was going to crumble. Things were dropping off shelves, and I was headed for the door in my underwear, grabbing a modesty towel along the way! The jackhammer stopped just as I got outside. After an earthquake here, our thoughts always turn to a possible Tsunami, and I was searching the news radio stations for any information. They had the usual Sunday morning public service pabulum on the air. We fear that someday the south slopes of the Big Island could drop into the sea near the active volcano area, and that would give us about 20 minutes warning before the wave would inundate Honolulu several hundred feet high. So I called friends in Hilo immediately to see if the quake was over there or was centered closer to Honolulu. Well, folks in Hilo were thoroughly shook up. It was a BIG one, they said, Everything glass was broken, trinkets littered the floor, and a lot of the dishes fell out of the cupboards and broke. I was amazed that we felt the quake here in Honolulu, some 200 miles distant. And just a few minutes after the quake, the power went dead here in Honolulu.

Next stop was the Ham radio. Kudos to the local hams who had set up an emergency net on the local repeater within minutes, even before they got to the civil defense Emergency Operations Center. From the hams I learned it was a 6.6 Richter quake, centered in the channel between the Big Island and Maui, some 150 miles from Honolulu. No Tsunami was generated.

This quake was different than anyone here can ever remember. It was felt strongly along the entire chain of inhabited islands, all the way to Kauai, over 200 miles distant, with enough intensity even at these distances to trip the vibration sensors at the power plants and shut down the generators for safety. All islands lost power in this shaker! I hear the quake was some 30 miles deep in the crust, and apparently propagated along the crustal weak area that formed the entire chain of islands. Seven minutes after the first shock, the first aftershock was a 5.8richter some 10 miles deep, and we felt that in Honolulu also.

After the initial excitement, we learned that the entire island was without power. Then it became a boring day of waiting for the electric company to bring our three oil-fired turbine plants back online. The last island-wide blackout we had was over ten years ago with a hurricane. Oahu consumes about 1320 megawatts of juice, and it takes the better part of a day for damage assessments and to get the grid back up and running, one small neighborhood at a time. Amazingly, there were no reported deaths or serious injuries.

So that's what's shakin' in Hawaii !"

We've been waiting for this quake for a long time - since early April in fact when the web bot project made references to earthquakes in the Pacific as "Five Toes Kick Ass" in an April 2006 web bot report (report extracts here).  As one bot run reader said:

"So Cliff *is* connected to God/the Universe/the Grand Architect/the dao/whatever! Damn - right down to the dawn timing, barefoot in the glass (Hawaii - of COURSE folks are barefoot), and five islands, 50 for fiftieth, versus parallel, yep.

OK, so now I am like *really* worried about the 24th, and for the elections and the state of the nation thereafter. "

The fear of the 24-26th window is justified, say the runs covering the upcoming period - but you'll see for yourself when America enters its Constitutional crisis next month. And I thought knowing a bit about the the future in advance would be fun...it's not.

Bush Ranch II - in Paraguay!

We're watching the reports out of South America that the Bush family is in mid purchase of a 98-thousand acres ranch property.

Tamil Attack Kills 67

Situation in Sri Lanka continues to intensify with 67 dead in a bombing og as convoy today by Islamist Tamil rebels. So much for peace talks.

---

Militant Jihadists are continuing  to dispense death in Iraq, where 86 Iraqis have been killed over the weekend in continued intercine fighting. And the insurgency has declared the new Islamic State in Iraq.

British Airways in Cross Row

The headline in the UK's "Mirror" says it all: "If a Muslim can we here veil to work, why is my cross forbidden?"

NK's Response

There are concerns around the Pacific rim that North Korea may launch terror attacks on Japan in the wake of UN-backed sanctions being passed. Kim Jong-il is taking the sanctions in stride and doesn't seem much bothered by them.

War With China?

A very good read in the Asia Times under the headline "If it comes to a shooting war" is worth a careful read - it comes from a retired brigadier general, so the spend a few minutes on it. 

Watching Commodities

Crude oil has continued its recent gains in early trading this week.  We're watching it - along with the grains complex - for clues as to whether the economy breaks to the hyperinflationary side, or if more deflation is coming along.  It's a safe bet - at least for now - that the Fed won't be raising or lowering rates when they meet later this month.

Sunday Special Update: We Own the Future

Hawaii Quakes: Web Bot Hit

As a reader of UrbanSurvival, you're no doubt aware that we have been privileged to  have exclusive access to future predictive technology developed by my friend Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com.   You will also recall that I've been warning of a "Major October earthquake for a long time - in fact, on August 15th, I was interviewed for a television documentary on "prediction" that is planned for air this winter.  In that interview, I explained in general terms how the technology works and that it was forecasting, among other things, a large Western US earthquake in October.  It was to be the denouement of the "Five Toes Kick Ass" earthquake sequence that has been developing in web bot modelspace.

Fast forward to 7:07 AM local time in Hawaii today.  A 6.3 (preliminary) quake which left much of the island of Oahu without power, people stepping on broken glass in their pajamas, and much concern about damage to buildings in the capitol.

Now, when I say "We own the future", we have tried to share glimpses of events in advance:

• Week ending Sept 30:  "We already know about the October earthquake meme ..."

• Week ending April 15:  "We have two international crisis to get through, that major West Coast earthquake between June 21 and October 21 during a waning moon - and things like that."

But now let's skip the "we told you so" and reveal publicly for the first time the specific forecasts that was given to web bot project subscribers in April and June of this year (No forwarding or posting without links and credit, please):

"In previous ALTA reports of this year we have been getting language indicating that a series of '5/five quakes' would 'rock our world' this Summer {ed note: more or less from Memorial Day/USofA holiday -end of May through to Labor Day, early September}. The data showed that at some point within the quake series, likely after the first quake, the Press would be able to get into the quake stricken area, and out would emerge a story about a 'postponed wedding'. Following this first quake would be a gap of days/weeks, then there would be 3/three quakes close together with the last of the 3/three being the largest. Then the data suggested another gap of days, more or less equal to the first gap, and yet one more, largish quake would shake things up.

 

It can be argued at this point that we have already seen the manifestation of the first quake, the subsequent 'wedding postponed' story, and then 3/three other quakes in close proximate to each other. This last would be the group of three quakes that struck near Fiji this week. IF this is the middle part of the series, then a gap of about 10/ten to 14/days would result and we would theoretically expect to see the largest of the group of five quakes described within the data set. Now we note that the first earthquake was a 6.2 and subsequently the largest of the most recent Fiji quakes was a 6.1. Therefore to fit our description, the next earthquake need only be a 6.3 in magnitude, but it should have the impact of producing 'isolation through restrictions of movement' and other noted impacts. Additionally, our previous data set had very strong suggestions that the earthquake which produced 'isolation' would be located 'north of 50/fifty' as in 50/fifty degrees of latitude."

---

"So, given our peculiar binoculars which is modelspace, and given the caveat above, we do find that '5/five' people who are described as 'liberal minded' will be the focus of the press *after* a large earthquake causes destruction of the local infrastructure and isolation of the region. This earthquake is still shown within our data set as happening such that sleep is impacted, and that 'millions of feet' stumble about in the 'pre-dawn/early morning' trying to both 'avoid bleeding cuts' as well as 'locate firm ground'. The implication is from the lexical set that a large number of smallish aftershocks will cause at least as much emotional anguish as the damage/trauma from the larger quake.

 

Further we find that the data contains aspect/attribute sets with extensive cross links to the Press entity all of which go to the idea that '5/five strong individuals' will be reported as 'saviors' to 'tens of thousands'. This will apparently come about when these '5/five strong individuals' will 'accede to need' and will place their 'personal property' at the disposal of the 'people, wounded'. There is a specific lexical set further down within the '5/five strong individuals' sub set in which the imagery is of 1/one of the 5/five, apparently female who will 'promote/further/support' the 'governor {of the} province/state' by 'arriving {in} time, need' with a 'large truck' that 'contains all her possessions, mobilized {for} use/utility'.

 

The 'governor' as well as most of the populace of the 'isolated region' is described by the data set as 'shocked/traumatized', and 'bereft/emptied of sense'. This last is due to the 'repeated shocks' of the 'litany of continuous crumbling decay/damage'. Though how we will tell the difference between 'shell shocked' government, and any other kind is still unanswered, we nonetheless note that the data set is very clear that perhaps the most devastating part of the whole earthquake experience will arise from the 'destruction of communications/movement'. And yes, once again let us note that this is a participatory element within the 'restrictions on movement' meta data layer. There are also a large number of lexical structures going to the imagery of 'isolation' caused by the 'release of tension/energy' within the 'crust of the earth' such that 'all {is} turned/converted {into} pulsating/rhythmic motion'. The 'physical isolation' is described as arising from 'ground damage/destruction' which includes 'over turned carts/trucks' and 'swaying/swinging unsafe/risky bridges'. Further the 'roadways' are described as 'impassable' due to 'mountains of debris' which will 'fill the crevasse/ravine' the way that 'dust fills the corner'."

So as we watch the news for the balance of the day, we expect to see the personalities come forward and for additional portions of the forecast events to be fulfilled.

Oh, and about that referencing of latitude 50?  Sorry.  In our post quake debriefing today, we concluded that the reference to 50 (which we errantly took for latitude) was to the 50th State and that all of the "Five Toes Kick Ass" entity (more on this in a sec) were islands. 

Going back to a previous future scanning run, ALTA 1006 (April 7, 2006) we find where the whole notion of the five quakes starting with the May quakes in Indonesia laid out pretty clearly:

"Terra - Five Toes Kick Ass Or, 'summer shakes' part redux. A couple of years ago we had the early success with locating the emotional components within the language shifts which suggested that, at that time, that the following summer was going to be one involving 'summertime shakes'. That is to say, a whole lot of earthquakes. We note in passing that the Sumatran earthquake/tsunami followed in the Winter. Within the last ALTA series, number 806 we began to pick up some of the early language for emotional response to earthquakes. Within that report the interpretation was for a largish quake, perhaps even very large, which would happen on the west coast of North America sometime in late summer. The early indications for geography seem to suggest that the quake will be 'close to 50/fifty' which may be suggesting the 50th parallel of latitude, and thus would be epicenter'ed in Canada. However, the geographic references for earthquakes are risky in application within our work. We have been consistently wrong in our placement for these events with one notable exception which was the 'summertime shakes' prediction for Southern California.

 

At this point we still have language sets going to the idea that large numbers of people will be impacted, most probably 'in the dark' which will set in motion a 'pajama parade' down highways in the 'first faint light of dawn'.

 

These are shown as being 'parades of blood' as in 'multitudes/many small wounds, cut feet, lacerated hands'. Much of this last is seen as involving a 'twisting to tearing/breaking {of the} earth' which is shown in lower supporting aspect/attribute sets as 'rupturing membranes/barriers' such as glass. As a reinforcing, but still strange supporting layer, we find many lexical sets indicating a 'wrenching diagonally' or 'pulling from the corners', or 'tearing water cut' {ed note: this last comes from our Japanese linguistic components and refers to a strike across a body which takes the jugular and carotid, as well as across the heart, and through the liver and kidneys}.

 

Again and again the data set, in the midst of the descriptors for the earthquake aftermath, provides yet more references to this 'diagonal twisting' which is shown as leading to 'broken land', or 'ruptured bones'. Again within this series processing the data sets are accumulating more supporting lexical structures to reinforce the idea that the 'earthquake {named/called/labeled} isolation' will involve a very large number of people having to 'scurry/hurry/scamper {over} broken glass/debris {to} see {the} coming dawn'. Further, within this set are descriptors going to the point that the 'surprise' is the key emotional element. This has a tendency to support the placement of this quake in some area such as northern American continent, where the populace, unlike residents of southern California, would *not* be expecting a very large quake.

 

Again and again, the 'surprise' or 'shocked {by} shakes {leads to} paralysis' arise within the descriptors of the emotional state immediately following the event. The data set also repeatedly reinforces a central theme of 'isolation' as a result of the earthquake and aftermath. In diverting for a moment to examine the latter, we note that the data set for the Terra entity, specifically for this '5/five toes kicks ass' section is heavily participatory within the meta data layers of 'restricted movement' and 'encounter with scarcity'.

 

Further the data is suggesting that the earthquake will produce a rather unexpected result of 'encounters with scarcity through restricting movement' in at least 2/two industries with a global impact. Due to some of the supporting layers there is reason to suspect that some strategic, just-gotta-have-it material will be impacted as a mine will collapse or be 'shuttered/closed' during the quake. Further the data suggests that some other natural resources indigenous to the area affected will be 'piled, and abandoned' as the 'restrictions on movement' will mean 'delivery is impossible'.

 

The data set for the Terra entity indicating the 'earthquake' is clearly showing that '5/five' of the quakes will happen quite close together and that the last will be the largest. This does not preclude after shocks, but from our data set's view of the emotional response, if there are aftershocks they will fail to elicit much of a reaction from the local populace. This is likely due to much bigger issues arising. Once again, just as we had within the data prior to the 'sliding of the mountain of people into the waters' {ed note: our first linguistic clues about the recent Pakistan quake}, we are showing that 'isolation' will be the real producer of problems.

 

In this data set we still, for the second year, are showing the 'isolation' as having more references to the pacific northwest of the USofA than for any other geographic locality. Please note that our work consistently errs in the direction of the most dire or extreme of outcomes, is always off on timing, and is rarely correct on geography. Other than these minor details, hey, we're bang on... Anyway, the descriptor sets are still accruing aspect/attribute sets for more 'isolation' impacts. This includes going on to the idea of a 'multi-generational' effect of the earthquake in terms of 'restricted movement' or 'isolation'. A small area of supporting aspects/attributes for the 'isolation' aspect set also contain descriptors toward the idea that the press will be 'speaking of poverty/want/capacity {of this} new time/age/days'. This set is in turn supported by language to the effect that 'realization {of} paupacy' relative to 'rebuilding/construction/repair' of this most recent damage will 'strike officialdom' as though a 'pick/spike {in the} brain'. In other words, a really big headache.

 

There are further layers within this set which focus on the 'dawn' or 'awakening' of knowledge of 'lack of resources' to cope with the series of natural disasters within the 'developed/industrialized' world. The language suggests that a time of 'truth telling' or 'revealing of secrets' relative to this disaster will bring the politicians of the planet to their greatest nightmare, that of having to deliver bad news to the electorate. Specifically, that the planet will not be able to 'afford reconstruction' of these damaged areas. Not a good message to have to deliver. This area, as an aside, is heavily cross linked back over to the Populace/USofA entity and the sub set of the 'rebellion' aspect. Further we find that cross links to Markets entity, 'commodities' sub set is indicating a very 'heavy weight' is put on things by this Terra event. The other cross links go over to the Bushista entity, as well as a number of the smaller entities.

 

Given that our timing sucks, we still show this emotional release as appearing between the Summer solstice and the Autumnal equinox. Other clues that are provided within the data sets go to the 'dark of the moon', and the 'valley of fertility' being two of the highest levels of supporting aspects. There are repeated references to 'gloomy', and 'darkest of the nights', as though this will be an especially dark night within the 'waxing moon' cycle. Further the data set goes to the idea that one of the first reports out will suggest that a 'postponed wedding' is the result. What is being indicated here is that the first quake will have at least enough of a gap between it and following ones, that media will be able to get out at least one human interest story to the effect of the 'postponing of the wedding'. Further the data suggests that as the 'smallest toe' is the 'same distance away {from the} middle three {as is the} largest toe' so will the spacing be on the shakes. Odd, but who knows? We have a tendency to take references to human body parts seriously as these have repeatedly shown themselves to be primary archetypical in effect.

 

So the scenario being painted is one in which a quake happens, media gets in, a story about a wedding being impacted/postponed is going out, and that is when the 'middle three toes' of the quake strike. We are offering this interpret ion due to the extra ordinary number and complexity of the cross links from this area over to the Press entity. Many of the cross link termination data sets within the Press entity go to the idea of 'injuries' and 'blood on the meadow', and 'blood on the air'. This last we will offer as a phrase indicative of media broadcasts, hopefully. Basically, what with the cross links now to both Press and Populace/USofA repeatedly referencing 'blood', we think it safe to assume that when the 'big toe' comes, we will feel the 'ass getting kicked'.

 

Within the supporting set for the 'ass getting kicked' the aspects/attribute sets are running heavily toward such phrases as 'blood dries {on the} roadway', and 'blood {of} many mingles {on the} roadway', and 'feet bleed sorrow {from/for} many'. And the data continues in pretty much the same vein throughout the rest of the supporting set. Many references to blood, and small wounds, and wounded feet. If we follow the 'waxing moon' aspect set down its supporting layers, we do find that the 'final phase' of the 'waxing moon' cycle is showing as the time of the earthquake, and that afterward, the whole of the area participates very heavily in 'encounter with scarcity'. This area of the data set grows rapidly as the modelspace is progressed through the Summer.

 

The whole of the period following the 'big toe kick' is shown as characterized as a time of 'mourning'. This is an explicit aspect with some very troubling sub aspect/attribute sets supporting it. Apparently the period after the quake will be far more troubling than the initial damage resulting from the shakes. The data set suggests that 'air drops' will be needed to provide basic resources, and even this area is internally cross linked over to 'mourning'. Within the cross link terminating set the aspects/attributes go to the idea that a 'rescue mission' will fail with the loss of all who attempt it. The details that we have in the way of emotional associations suggest that a helicopter, likely a medical mission will go awry. The 'mourning' aspect suggests that 'mourning {for} rescuers lost {is the} most intense'. One last note is that the supporting layers for the '5/five toes' aspect suggest that the affected area will be 'reduced by half'.

 

This last is heavily cross linked to the Markets and along with the clues toward a multigenerational impact, suggests that this is a very large quake series at just the wrong time. The 'wrong time' is also supported within the set at many layers as though it will become the 'phrase of apology' for what is shown as 'inaction' on the part of 'officialdom'. Hmmm. So what else will be going on?"

So, if we read this right, the Sunday quake in Hawaii should be dominating headlines for several weeks to come. That's if there's not another Big One lurking around this same timeframe. But for now, it looks like the Sunday Hawaii Quake was "it".  If you go back and read our week ending June 17th report, based on ALTA run data, the "kick off" event of the five toes sequence was the Indonesia quake which came complete with the forecast "wedding interrupted."

Just wait till we get to the October 24-26 timeframe. If the bots are right, and you thought the quake was interesting, what's coming ought to shock you to your core.

Custom Web Bot Run

Our friends at www.halfpasthuman.com are putting together a custom run for a hedge fund or two.  If you are interested in gaining a radical linguistics peak at where the future seems to be headed - and you can afford to spend in the low five figures for 60-70-pages of future predictive research that is more trading and markets oriented than the general web bot runs, please click here for details. 

News from Elliott Wave International

The Web UrbanSurvival Only

On to Our Chart!

Instead of our customary chart, this week you get a free peak at one of our other charts from www.peoplenomics.com - this is our "Global Markets Equally Weighted" chart:

Write when you get rich,

George Ure, The People's Economist