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Saturday March 10, 2007 07:47 CDT | ||
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Strange, Stranger, Strangest After many hours yesterday on the business end of a 1)shovel, 2) metal cutting band saw, 3) lathe, 4)Kubota tractor, 5) PVC pipe cleaner/cement/glue, 6) saber saw, 7) sand paper, I'm pleased to report that there are now three new, well insulated water "hydrants" located in our garden, next to the house, and at the site of the new chicken coop, which will be along one of these days when I get tired of tripping over the plywood purchased for the project..
Thanks to the relatively mild climate of Texas, putting 3/4" pipe (which measures 1.03" O.D., but let's not get too picky here) into the ground is a relatively easy task. If this was 'up north' I'd still be digging/swearing/cussing the high clay content soil, and I don't know if I would have ever started the project. But 8" down, and covering the heads with 4" DWV (drain/waste/vent pipe if you've never worked with anything but a pen and keyboard) with insulation in it, has worked out fine, but I admit to being a bit sore this morning. Much liniment consumed as compensation. But I digress...
As I read the morning's headlines, I do feel a renewed kinship with the chickens, who look perplexed at the new hydrant in the garden which they are cleaning out prior to tilling and planting - next weekend's big task. After much clucking about, with a few mandatory test pecks, they have concluded that rain has somehow been contained in this new white plastic column that sticks out of the ground. And this gets me to the point: There are some strange, stranger, and strangest headlines about this morning, that make my parlor trick of shoving rain into a pipe (at least that's what the chicken think I've done) look amateurish, indeed. --- Topping the Strange list this morning are the stories about how Osama bin Laden is turning 50 today. To some, that is like publishing stories about Hitler's birthday in the midst of WW II, but the broader question is whether bin Laden is alive or whether his name only has lived on as a convenient way to whip up emotions and public support for the War on Terror, but such questions aren't broached in polite company.
My "stranger" list is headed by Newt Gingrich admitting to having an affair - which CNN speculates may clear the way for Newt to run for the White House in 2008.
I'm a little baffled by this latest turn of events: I thought the only prerequisite for higher office was to screw constituents, but apparently there's political virtue in sins or confessions, although I'm not clear which. A Newt/Hillary contest in 2008 would be a nearly perfect "perpetrator vs. victim" decision for voters.
I must be nuts to think that if a person can't be trusted with the single most important relationship in life, why should we trust 'em for anything else? And what kind of self esteem is evidenced in women who persist in hanging on to men who aren't faithful? My values are clearly out of step with the rest of the world. I guess that explains the >50% divorce rate.
What do I think is missing? How about pictures of Newt's...er...consort? I haven't found any yet! I can't be the only one who is curious whether Newt's fling was with a get-down hottie, center-fold type, or..... I mean if you're gonna screw up (or around), no half-measures, right?
But NOTHING comes close to what's going on in New Mexico, topping the Strange list - where the State Legislature is contemplating a state law which would restore the dwarf planet Pluto to full planet status.
The most reassuring thing is that the world has not suddenly become a rational place overnight, although with my focus on economics, I had a sneaking suspicion in that direction, anyway.
Pull Out Plans Democorps have a new plan to extract US forces from Iraq, but with so much oil/money/corporate growth/republicorp price on the line, we'd suggest not placing bets.
Time Out Daylight Savings Time starts tonight - we Spring Ahead under the guise of saving energy. But, to our more conspiratorially bent view, it likely has more to do with providing jobs for the 23 remaining software engineers in America. That being the case, we should change the date every year, thereby making time as incomprehensible as the Tax Code. And, look at all the jobs that creates!
Better idea? Sure, what the hell. Variable speed clocks. So that every day has 12-hours of daylight. Then people would look forward to winters like other animals that have the decency to hibernate. Imagine how much you'd get done in the summer! I'm telling you, variable speed clocks are the answer! --- We could save a lot energy by simply eliminating Tuesdays, too, I figure. Elaine suggested getting rid of Mondays, but Monday has been maligned enough already. Let's dump Tuesdays, instead. No one would miss it. Just think what an economic boom that'd cause!
Message From Universe Here you go: spiritual enlightenment. Headline first: Subprime lender "New Century shares plunge as analysts see imminent bankruptcy." --- Five minutes later email arrives: "Real Estate Book Sale at Amazon.com." "Save up to 39%" --- And five more minutes, this email:
The laughter from Universe is clear, right? Never buy at the top. And don't buy things that can't pay for themselves (like farmland and machinery pay for themselves).
Peoplenomics: Futuring Tools To suggest that I am overly concerned with the future doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of my preoccupation. Not only have I been involved as a critic, proponent, and kibitzer on the Web bot project, but I also am involved in business planning for the future of a few select consulting clients, and of course being involved in agriculture in a small way, the future of our world's food supply matters greatly to me. Therefore, I thought it would be productive this week to go through the tool chest of futuring tools which are available to anyone: even those who can't afford the $200 to buy into a web bot run. The tools we'll discuss include polling, trending, sked analysis, gap analysis, intuition, and even inventing. By selecting the proper tool, or a sequence of tools, you can easily achieve a much better view of the future than you might previously have believed possible. More for Subscribers Subscription Information Word Out Not to be confused with the old Cameo disco tune Word Up, you can help get the word out about this site by telling your friends that you have at last found a web site that dares to mix finance and reality, by clicking here. They will find out soon enough what really goes on here.
Living on $10,000 Yes it's possible...and yes, we have an ebook that will tell you how to do it. $10 is all it will set you back. Click here, big spender.
Friday March 9, 2007 Digging Ditches, Jobs Numbers This being Friday, I'm trying like mad to get a head start on some of the weekend projects two of which center around the new chicken moat - a 15 foot wide 'runway' around the vegetable garden, designed to given chickens a chance to play bug interceptors with their version of running roundup, so to speak. Part of the project, besides fencing, welding up a steel gate, and 6 foot high chicken wire, involves digging ditches for power and water. I finished the power ditch, basic wiring, and burying on Wednesday, and today with any luck, I will get the water lines in, four hose outlets installed, and the whole thing buried before afternoon showers arrive. I have no idea why people in big cities put their outdoor water faucets down so low -- the ones I'm putting in will be at about 36-inches off the ground so I don't have to root around, stooped over, to change hoses and such. But then again, people in big cities seem strangely willing top sacrifice function for style, which is why cities look so pretty while farms are ever so much more practical. But I digress.
The whole exercise has involved just that - a series of evenings on the wrong end of a shovel, regaining an appreciate for old-fashioned hard work. (I prefer to be on the check-writing end of the shovel.) But all this gets us to this morning's jobs report:
The key numbers to focus on are that the Civilian labor force was down 190-thousand, month on month, employment dropped 38-thousand, and unemployment dropped 152-thousand, but remember, that's really meaningless, because the only people counted for unemployment are those who are getting government benefits. Lose those, and you're no longer counted. Unemployed, homeless, starving, maybe, but not counted. So sorry. --- What doesn't come through in the jobs report, is that 10% of Mexico's population is in the US, mostly illegally, and Latinos are occupying a lot of jobs two out of three construction jobs, for example.
Regardless of the picture in the US, things are going well to our North. Canada added 14,200 jobs in February and their unemployment rate fell, goes one headline. Not that I have anything against Latinos work - they are wonderful people and there's work to be done. But we read in one report that "More significant, the report states that the number of recently arrived Hispanics — those who entered the United States no earlier than 2000 — was up 43.1 percent. And the authors of the study believe that two-thirds of the re- cent arrivals are not in this country legally. "
We also note that outsourcing is not just a US to China, or US to India deal: Proctor and Gamble is cutting jobs in Ireland to move them to Poland, says a report out of Dublin. In Europe, Airbus is laying off 10,000 workers. Although it would seem Boeing is doing well at the Commercial Airplane Division, we notice that forward buying of C-17 parts is drying up on the military side and that program may close.
And in an ironic twist to the jobs picture, we note that La-Z-Boy is laying off 500 and planning a restructuring. I expect a few of those laid off will have more time on company product than they wanted. --- One last ditch-digging note: The Balance of Trade improved last month (January being the month reported here): yes, we're still digging a hole to the tune of $59.1 billion for January, but that's an improvement from the preceding month's $61.5 billion in December. The hole digging chart here looks like this - a striking striking similarity to my own work in the back yard.
Housing Concerns Regardless of the employment picture, there's the whole housing situation which is continuing its decline, although it has faded from headlines a bit. Does that mean the worst if over? You've not been watching closely: "US Housing: still much further to go" reads a report out of the UK. (slow loading, be patient.)
A Canadian report that Vancouver BC area housing starts were down 37 percent in February is not apparently too worrying, if I read the Vancouver Sun right.
Off center mainstream media coverage, we note that Fed is getting ready for a potential foreclosure crisis due to adjustable rate loans resetting at much higher levels and banks starting to get bad loans back.
State officials in Colorado have an answer to the growing foreclosure problems - dispute the statistics. Bet a lot of homeless folks in Colorado will find that solves about all their problems, you betcha. On the banks of what river was that?
Shooting Messengers Folks in the scientific community seem to be upset that the "Bush administration (is) restricting discussion on Polar Bears and Global Warming." And while the "global warming is caused by humans" meme is being spread, the off planet problems wqere brought to the fore by the airing this week of "The Great Global Warming Swindle" which aired last night in the UK. Today, we're reading about what business can do about it. EU leaders, regardless, have agreed to cut greenhouse gases, One report says "Kyoto faces futile future". --- Suppose for a minute - and this is a "What if?" question to ponder with the next cup of coffee - what if an elite corps within the government behind the government knew that we were in for a big period of off planet caused global warming, that the sun was going to go nuts later this year, and that at some point it would become apparent that we are but little specs in the overall design of Universe? How would you best be able to keep control/power/elite status/ and functioning world, right up to the very end? Would you "invent" man-caused global warming to hide something else? Just a thought...but a good mental exercise, nevertheless...
Property Rights in China We have been following (with occasional furtive glances) property law reform in China. After 13-years of debate China may actually step up for property rights. The rights, like here, aren't complete, and you can bet they have the equivalent of eminent domain for "projects in the public interest" like our big box eminent domain cases here. --- Property laws have always confounded me. It's like science fiction gone made, when you think about it: The Universe creates all these planets, they cool, along comes life in the slime, and millions of years later, a particularly power-driven/control-driven kind of life form (government) emerges to proclaim after much violence and killing that they "own" parts of the planet and then "sell" it to other life forms (unsuspecting humans, which they keep dumbed down), but it's never really sold, as the government retains "rights" to tax (another absurdity) in order to keep itself in power and in a position to control people.
This land-scheming, life controlling mutant life form, also decrees certain plants created by the Universe to be illegal, imposes taxes on everything sold in one way or another, outlaws making ethanol for personal consumption, and claims power to take young people from their families, teaches them to kill other humans efficiently, and then sends then off to foreign lands under the guise of "bringing democracy". This is then immediately followed by the government/scheming life forms locking up natural resources in the invaded country, and selling them off to their pals, a pseudo-life form called corporations..
What a silly plot, right? Any novel with such an outlandish story line would never sell. But even as nutty as it is, that's the way things work here on the third rock. At least for now.
A few folks looking for knowledge, and seeking awareness, stand back and look at the whole story line quite perplexed; another bunch are trying to seize power and control everything for personal gain and setting up family dynasties to rule (think Clinton, Bush types) while the rest of the folks just mill around in their work pens wondering how to fill up their time on weekends, so they can get back to being work-beasts next Monday. The go-along to get along center. There's your real Friday jobs report.
Remember the great Jack Nicholson line? You can't handle the what?
Thursday March 8, 2007 Lines in the Sand Although he's on a road trip 'out West', I talked with my friend Robin Landry yesterday because I'm dying to see which way this market is going to break. As I see it, there are two ways it could go - and at the risk of sounding like a blithering idiot, one choice is up, the other is down. Now, if the market heads up, we could make a case that the Dow will go on to new highs, although as I've told you before, on a purchasing power adjusted basis, the market would have to best 14,000 (or close by) in order to just break even with the previous market top in 2000. (11,723 times 7 years of inflation is in that area). On the other hand, it could just as easily go down and this could turn into the "big one" that long wave economics students (like me) have been seeing in the cards for a very long time.
So, if the market pops up through 12,800 in short order, I would guess the move just done was a IV and we would just be starting the ultimate blow-off top which should put us up top (or over) 14,000. But lacking that, it's really just a I down and the temporary bouncing action the past couple of days would evaporate and then things could turn ugly with incredible speed.
Personally, when I look at the Super Cycle Count since the last Depression, I would read it as I up from 1933-1937, II down was the secondary Depression from 1937 to 1943, III up was from 1943 to about 1966, then IV down from 1965 to about 1983, although I'll admit the Dow doesn't look to have fallen particularly down here, that is, unless you count the impact on purchasing power - in which case it was disastrous. Then V up was from 1983/84 to 2000, with 1987 perhaps being the completion of 1 and the transition into the sharp 2...etc. (Every Elliott wave counter has their own way of labeling things, but that's life.
"So, what are the "lines in the sand?" I asked Landry. "12,000, about 10,700-10,800, then 9,700, and 7,100." Ultimately, Landry's among those who sees the possibility of a Dow going into the low thousands - and maybe even under 1,000, when the cycles all complete.
But for this morning, we're content to read that the open is expected to be strongly upward. and that the market is still feeling its bullish oats. Wake me up when we see another 400-point move day - up or down - maybe next week, or the week after.
The Green in Green As we watch the color 'green' over the coming months (it's the 'color of news' lately), we read today how a "Green Building Consultant Predicts a $30 Billion Green Building Market in 2007" In Massachusetts we read about an eco-army fighting for clean energy. The headline "Newton's green gang." --- Our disambiguation department offers the remind that the headline "Green will be honored by SEC" has nothing to do with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but rather a football player in the SouthEast Conference. The other SEC is busy with an online stock fraud ring, but we're still waiting for some real action on naked short selling. Oh? Depending on who you listen to, naked short selling is either no issue or a huge fleece the little guys deal.
Tweaking Iran Headline in the Jerusalem Post says "Israel behind general's defection" - referring to a key Iranian general who went missing in Turkey. Supposedly providing answers to questions about support for Hezbollah and Iraq fighting. --- Meantime, Palestinians are lobbing a new kind of rocket at Israel in retaliation for the West bank/Nablus invasion last week or so. --- And the International Atomic Energy Agency has cut about half of technical aid programs for Iran. Doubt it will change their course, but OK...
Loose Lips Sink... "Former Sailor Accused of Providing Data to Terrorist Web Site" headlines the Washington Post. We're reminded of WW II posters like this one. Or, this one.
"Dick Cheney in Twilight" Quite a headline coming from Time Magazine...so's the phrasing of this quote: "Cheney has become the Administration's enemy within, the man whose single-minded pursuit of ideological goals, creaking political instincts and love of secrecy produced an independent operation inside the White House that has done more harm than good. On an imaginary political balance sheet, Cheney is the Democrats' most valuable asset. "
BoE Holds The closely watched (at least by us) Bank of England rates were left unchanged today at 5.25%. That should lend a little stability to the international markets for the rest of this week. We'd watch the close US close today and Asia tomorrow morning for a sense of direction. --- Hank Paulson is urging China to loosen its financial markets. I'd wager the Chinese think Paulson a bit cheeky: How many currencies has the US been through since its founding? How many years has China been a great country/people/civilization? Hu's offering who advice here? We'll be watching, as Homer Simpson might phrase it, "Wu-Hu" and "Hu-Wu".
Wednesday March 7, 2007 The High Plateau You may want to test me on this later, so on a calendar some place, go draw a line from here through the 15th (or 17th) of the month so you can refer to it later on this year. Don't worry, I'll remind you when. We're doing this why? So we can remind you what a "plateau" feels like in the linguistic world of Cliff and Igor over at predictive linguistics central. No need to be bored again with a recounting of how the future-seeing works - we'll just stand up here on the plateau and look at the storm clouds coming:
If you believe the old adage that "As goes GM, so goes America" or "As goes the auto industry, so goes the world..." then Comptroller General Walker may be more harbinger of things to come, than UrbanSurvival style realist. He's likely both.
Supply, Demand, --- Gold, Coffee While the world's paper-hangers are still papering over the fundamental problems of American, we notice two things, which combined might be the germ of an investment idea I've stated many times - because it's what we're doing. The first data point is that South African gold production has fallen to an 84-year low, say reports. The second, using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator is that a 1913 dollar (the year the Fed was founded) has now collapsed to a mere 4.8˘. To put it another way, what cost $1 in 1913 costs $20.76 today. Don't you feel better now? That $3 designer coffee you're slurping, would have cost you 15˘, had anyone back then been so foolish with their funds, or too lazy/busy/hypnotized to brew their own for a few cents. --- I've been watching my coffee expenses like a hawk, by the way, and find that I am spending 28.94 cents a day on the stuff. If you have a mind to, please send me your daily expenditures - might make an interesting bell curve. Click here to submit. --- I might have a line on some Ethiopian coffee - which would be neat to import [if it's fair trade coffee, that is] and I'll keep you posted on developments there.
Libby Guilty I hear some of the jurors think Scooter Libby was only a fall guy. Duh.
Spielberg's Rockwell Here's our people-watching headline of the day from the Insurance Journal, if you're hooked on such things: "FBI Finds Stolen Norman Rockwell Painting in Spielberg's Home."
The "Green" Russia Headlines We notice three stories out of Russia gaining press: A doctor and daughter poisoned, a reporter killed after investigating arms sales to Iran, and Hu's going to Russia to warm up China/Russia relations. --- Russian headlines this morning include "Gore and Sex on Russian TV undermine morals and family values.", Pravda has a mini-site on the developing US- Russian arms race.
OK, so far, right? Well, here's where our emerging color green meme suddenly pops us and slaps us about the head: It turns out the doctor (mom) and daughter were poisoned with thallium. "And so what?" you ask. Back to school for you: What are the odds, huh? OK, 100% today on this planet.
Green Sex And here's another weird/strange/peculiar appearance of the 'green meme' now dominant: The 'Green movement' comes to adult stores. Is this some kind of hint from the Universe that 'we're all about to be screwed?'
Winners, Losers In international popularity, the Edmonton Sun reports it's Canada and Japan. At the bottom are Israel and the US. 28,000 people in 12 countries were polled. We're pleased to report the good news in the poll (I get accused of only reporting bad news, so listen up:) The US was not DFL (dead frigging last). We were ahead of North Korea and Israel.
Big Winners At least two winners in yesterday's Mega Millions lotto. If you're a winner, send your 1% fee ()for our sage investment advise) to us right away.
Data Points Down A couple of things the markets conveniently didn't take seriously during yesterday's bounce/rally: Productivity was up a mere 1.6% in Q$ and labor costs were up nearly 7 percent. And the service sector has continued to weaken in the latest ISM report. But, who cares? There's paper to be made! (Note: I didn't say money, did I? Only 'paper'.) --- Just so we're perfectly clear on this - and because words mean so much more when you roll them around on the tip of your consciousness, try to remember that you most likely do only work for paper. "Money" is the most common medium of exchange, but it's being constantly devalued. So maybe a little more precision in your thinking would be useful: You work for paper. Different numbers, letters, and positions of the ink are all that separate a $1000 bill from a $1 bill. --- Amazingly, stores will accept paper with ink on it for useful goods! Hell, auto companies will accept paper for rolling stock and the liquor store up the road accepts paper for useful rum. Even more startling, many places will accept insignificant bytes on a hard drive at some bank card processing center as "money" - ain't that a hoot?
There are days I wake up and pinch myself, the whole notion of people trading 60-hours blocks of their lives for pieces of paper is just so surreal. Maybe it has something to do with being at this elevation. Up here on the plateau and all. --- This being Wednesday, the Mogambo Guru update about 8 here.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007 You Know What Tomorrow Is? Tomorrow is a day we've have circled on the calendar for some number of months because it begins what our time-predictive software jocks call the "emotional plateau period" which comes just ahead of a whole series of "emotional release events" that will run from roughly the Ides of march until September (19th), and from there, we build emotional tensions again, and head for even stranger/larger/scarier release event(s) in December.
The problem with predictive linguistics is that it doesn't speak as clearly as some kind of analysis. The mega-database approach like the government is building for identifying terrorists by their 'profiles' of everything from phone records to credit card use, is the preferred way of terrorist hunting because it allows for a high level of "zooming in" - right down to the one person level. Predictive linguistics do not. It's a broad overview kind of thing.
Nevertheless, we are seeing the stage set for all kinds of emotional release events. Let me run through just a few:
One reason to be very fearful of what's ahead for the economy is not just the move of many countries away from the US dollar, but also the 'shock and owe' that's coming to so many people in adjustable rate mortgages this year. A couple of shocking facts to consider: 70 percent of all real estate loans have originated since 2000 and 75% of the sub-prime loans have originated since 2004.
Then we have lawsuits arising from the mortgage lending business. A $74 million settle for First BanCorp makes headlines. Coldwell Banker Burnett has been sued in Minnesota. Lots of work for lawyers as this all works out. To generalize, it appears that on the investor side, the focus will be accuracy of financial reports, while on the consumer side, ethical practices seems the issue.
Then there's the rate change problem: One press release out today says:
Hmmm...not a pretty picture, eh? While the markets, and the metals and oil stocks bounce back a git today, tuck that number away in the back of your mind: Loans equal to 1-10th of the entire US GDP are going to be resetting this year at higher rates.
If you think the collapse of the housing bubble is complete, think again. The New Standard headlines "'Subprime' loans leading to mass foreclosures in Massachusetts" and although foreclosures were down a touch in February, they are still running 65% ahead of year earlier levels. And that's before the April 1 resets start going off. My best guess is that we're not out of the foreclosure problems yet - not by a long shot - and that the housing collapse will happen like a staggering drunk - in fits and starts, but ultimately collapsing in a heap.
Consumers Tapped Out? I also notice that the Institute for Supply Management's latest report shows the service sector of the economy was moving at the slowest pace in four years. Seems logical that with less money to throw at services, the sector could actual shrink by the time we get to year end.
Something to put on your calendar will be the Consumer Credit report (which is really consumer debt) report which will be issued this week by the Fed. This will be the first report for 2007 (Jan) and in it, we may see a continuing deterioration of consumer spending - that'd be my bet going into it.
Consumer debt bounces around a bit (noisy data), but if you look at the last report, you'll see that on a quarterly basis, Q2-06 saw consumer spending/debt up at an annual rate of 6.4%, but then in Q3-06 it dropped to 5.5% and by Q4, it was down to 3.7%. Nothing would surprise me less than to see consumer credit (debt) going up at an annual rate of 1-2% right now, and a continuing deterioration of the personal savings rate, as people hard-pressed to make mortgage payments unload whatever they can on eBay to make ends meet. We'll see, but it's definitely something to think about while the markets do a big bounce today.
As one reader writes about the day's headlines, summing up things quite tidily:
Maybe it's time to watch "Wag the Dog" again?
Killer Quake Although we're not expecting any big quakes in the US until the end of this month, and into April, there's been a big one overnight in Indonesia that has left 70 people dead. Time to check the emergency supplies, if you live on the West Coast? Freshen up that stored water. Got propane for cooking on the camp stove? That kind of thing...I'm guessing 20-45 days lead time from here till something big in the US - just a guess.
Green Death? Several readers have written in to suggest that the 'green death' meme we've been tracking could turn out to be the Walter Reed Army (green) medical Center scandal that continues to spread. A hearing Monday began to scratch at the surface, but there's much more - and plenty of blame to go around, yet to come. --- Something that has been percolating in runs for almost two years is health problems for Dick Cheney - and we read today that he's got vein problems that have led to a clot in his leg. No surprise there.
Quick Money A lottery drawing tonight (Mega Millions) is living up to its name: $355 million on the line. Buy me a few tickets, would yah? And send me 1% if you win...call it a business expense and I'll pay the taxes due...uh huh.
Monday March 5, 2007 Bye Bye 12,000? Say, you haven't had enough coffee to figure out what the red in this here headline means, have you? If not, I don't wanna be the bad news bear, or anything, but Holy Smokes! The futures are down almost another one percent this morning prior to the open and the picture around the world is bleak.
Some mullings: "Wall Street Bracers for Bumpy Ride" headlines an AP story at Yahoo. Another advises us that "Markets Across Asia Plunge(d)" in the overnight sessions. Still, we've got to admire the confidence of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who is in Japan now - no doubt trying to help them find a little more gentle way to introduce the world to the end of the Yen carry-trade than going through a financial meltdown. Oh well, he gets the big bucks, not me, so I won't offer advice. I really like the phrase "regional market volatility in that last article. What river are they standing on the banks of., again?
Climate Debate Here's a biggie to watch: The still evolving story over whether climate change is caused by humans, or off planet influences. "Global Warming is Lies claims a new documentary - and a fair number of scientists. Apparently, the "Great Global Warming Swindle" is more about government/corporate control/intrusion/forced lifestyle change/ support of the ruling class, than documentaries on the other side, like Al Gore's movie.
I'd be placing at least an equal bet on the "off planet sources" myself - and I'd be plenty ticked when the facts come out later this year supporting "off planet" An article this weekend headlines that "Sun May be Warming Both Earth and Mars"...and being a part-time rocket surgeon, I reckon that the energy from wherever other celestial bodies will be warmed too. We politely won't ask if Uranus is also being warmed amidst this discussion, but it seems like a valid question...
Good News on Oil? There's a story in the NY Times today about how high tech is helping to flush more oil and gas out of older producing wells that were on the decline. It's a nice story - and even almost reassuring except for one thing: It didn't get deeply into the capex (capital expenditures required to recover additional oil if you skipped B school and have a real life) that'll be required for such a turnaround. And with deflation, the collapse of the housing market, and a likely surge in unemployment in our sights for this summer, we don't know that additional recovery will pay off. Poor folks and the unemployed don't use as much of anything and that will bring down oil prices - ugly little fact about deflation that few seem willing to talk about. --- Meantime, the Saudis are warning against any attack on Iran. And the IAEA meets today to figure what to try next to get Iran back in line.
Watch China They're talking about a 'fairer, greener' economy. There goes one of those darn 'green' references, again. Green comes to housing construction. A 'green" sailing schooner is being readies for the 'green coffee' trade. Diamonds go 'green' too. Green, green, green... some red:
Bombing Bummers 26 in Bahdad. And 16 in Afghanistan. You see the problem ahead, right? As Western media becomes tired of rehashing the latest bombing, there's gorilla marketing pressure to make for bigger bombs and booms. --- Especially if the economy tanks and we need an American attention distracter...
Green Speak I notice that our discussion about the "Green Death" has been propagating into discussion sites. Some thoughts on it were in Saturday's report, in case you missed it. The source of all this, of course is the predictive linguistics work of www.halfpasthuman.com. Part 2 of what is likely to be a 6-part report ($200, details here) came out this weekend and no, it's not safe to get up and move around the country. Leave the seat belt on.
Mr. Potatohead's Dairy? A reader who's of the farmerly persuasion says with the rush to make ethanol, we may see cows turning to potatoes for feed lot carbohydrates:
First, and foremost, I have to wonder what this will do to vodka prices, globally entangled economies being what they are and all. Then I'd get around to asking "If they can get the cows to mix in potatoes, can they figure out some way to have them produce gravy, too?
But seriously, ethanol is one of the reasons the Decider is off to Brazil. Japan and Brazil have already done an $8-billion dollar deal - and the Japanese have a yen for energy similar to our voracious US appetite. Boom times for Idaho, huh?
Rockin' the Atlantic A reader notices that the Northern Mid Atlantic Ridge had three quakes in quick succession this weekend:
Repeat after me: Cumbra Viejo. Surfing in West Virginia, anyone? Rockin' Colombia Scandal in high places in Colombia -- a triple pun if you're on a good caffeine buzz, or a "What did he mean by that?", if you're not. And what kind of scandal might that me, you ask? Oh, the usual S.A. right wing death squads, drugs, money...say sort of like things in the corporate West. --- What? You don't don't believe in such things? Well, the shooting of a top Russian expert, "days after he accused the Russian government of involvement in the poisoning of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko", although officially a street crime shooting, has the air of too much coincidence, for my tastes. Like the Dr. David Kelly case in England, last year, right?
Rockin' Rocky If you're just tuning in, we had a discussion this weekend about how to deal with Rocky Raccoon, the name we've borrowed for the cat food bandit who is terrorizing the cats. Homeland Security doesn't seem to consider him a big enough terror threat to throw him in jail, so I've been fishing for solutions to the problem of how to rid the cats of this distraction from the mouserly chores.
As you'd expect, we had some interesting suggestions come in. Snippets:
Another offered this:
And lots of folks revealed that raccoons have a sweet tooth:
If you're bothered by a high falutin' gourmet raccoon, add vanilla over the marshmallows.
Then there's this report:
We'll likely try the live trap and marshmallows approach and save the ammo for two-legged critters and snakes. Marketing Breakthrough! You may have heard "Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth", but at the present rate, I'm suspisin' there won't be much of an earth worth inheriting and the meek better retain counsel quick. So to save heartless corporations from dragging out the agony of financial defeat for their own bottom line advantage, I'm working on a new seminar series: "101 Ways to retire poor" I've got a vision of CD's, MP3 updates, videos, and live TV appearances in the Top 50 markets. Maybe a book and a talk-radio tour, too. Maybe we can get in on some of this big dollar financial flim-flam scam, ourselves. Call it a "poor idea" but you watch! As a master of poor planning, poor execution, poor writing (and pore spelling) I can't think of anymore more qualified than Ure's truly. I've got a millions of "get poor quick" schemes that haven't been used in Washington yet...this is marvelous!
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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