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Jobs Report Echoing

More than a few folks wrote in saying thanks for the report on the jobs numbers released yesterday - and it seems that there's much more coming on the jobs front as we wander into the summer months.

 

One of the watch points will be right here in the Republic of Texas.  There are two important stories afoot here over the future of US-Mexico relations.  As Jerome Corsi reported this week, the Texas Legislature is about to collide with the Bush administration/corpgov plans to build a super highway which would be used primarily by lower paid Mexican truck drivers to bring foreign-made goods into the US from across the border.  And, in the event you can't add 2+2 this early in the day, yes that means there would then be an incentive for a lot of companies to bring overseas goods into Mexico as the port of entry and then truck to the USA.

 

Meantime, corpgov is all set to roll out a "demonstration project" this summer - starting on July 15th.  Hats off to Corsi and WorldNetDaily for being on top of this.

 

This is Cinco de Mayo with an immigration shadow on events in some areas.

 

A few media, such as the Chicago Tribune, are reading between the lines on the fed's report from Friday and noting that "New-jobs gain lowest since '04".  While it may sound like conspiracy-think to even suggest the jobs report may have a lot of air in it, you need little in the way of statistics courses to see that some questions could be asked by an inquiring mind.

 

If the web bot fellows talk of an employment crash this summer still doesn't sound possible to you, consider that rumors are circulating on the net now that IBM might lay off as many as 150-thousand.

 

Loan Rangers

Another front where you're wallet is under attack (like having your jobs attacked by lower paid foreigners isn't enough) is in this whole subprime business which is blowing up.  A reader was kind enough to point out that my prediction of 100-year loans was not just hypothetical - already been done in Japan.

 

Another reader says my view of passing on wealth via long-term debt is wrong:

"George,

Federal estate tax is based on the fair market value of the total assets of a deceased person at the time of death. For real estate, appraisals are needed and are the subject of much dispute in the case of anything that is not easily appraised (condos and subdivision houses are really the only exceptions, and really only in a liquid market unlike today). You may recall in the 80's (?) there was some political haymaking about estate taxes "unfairly forcing the sale of farms that had been in the family for generations". Unfair, perhaps, but the unfairness is the tax overall, nothing to do with farms. I do not know, but I would guess that a debt would net out the value of the property as long as the mortgage was properly done. There are also inheritance taxes (paid by the heir) which vary by state but I think they only matter in very large inheritances.

Once you get past 25 years, extensions don't reduce the payment noticeably.

A lot of people (stupid and/or ignorant) pay no principal anyway for several years so extensions won't matter.

Sounds like a new form of rent to me, without any of the advantages. Renters need no initial capital, assume no risk of ownership (other than risk of rent increases or inability to renew), have no unexpected maintenance costs or tax assessments, can move much more freely (and thereby better exploit job opportunities). I think home ownership is overall very bad for many individuals and our society overall and is only appropriate for persons who can afford 20% down and still have 6 months living expenses in liquid assets. Those with less are just dangerously deluding themselves when they squander their limited resources on extravagances they really cannot afford. It just ruins their quality of life. Years ago (60's?) you could live in affordable humble yet safe neighborhoods. Over the years you had to move upscale (or switch from renting to ownership) not for the bigger or fancier house but just to get away from really bad neighborhoods, bad schools, etc. "

Meantime, good news and bad about www.ml-implode.com - the site that tracks the n umber of mortgage lenders that have croaked since late 2006:  The good news is the site is back up.  The bad news is the site reports the number of lenders going 'toes up' is now 67 and still climbing...

 

DC Madam

The ABC 20-20 segment last night didn't reveal any new high-profile clients of the escort service scandal working its way through the District of Corruption.  But while no new names are out from last night's broadcast, Palfrey says she has no qualms about calling clients as witnesses.  My view?  Palfrey has some large number of the "powers that be" by the fabled balls and these are not nice people to have coming after you...risky business, this.

 

Seer Bill

Bill Clinton is warning of worldwide disasters like famine and the US obesity problems.  Wonder if he's been reading us?

 

Up Your Gas

Up to $3 a gallon on average, although most people won't slow consumption till somewhere north of $4.00.

 

Who Cares Department

There are lots of stories that make huge impacts on infotainment space that are all about selling of the cult of personality - a sort of bread & circuses feedback loop to keep average folks average.  Here's an assortment of stories that masquerade as news:

The way I figure it is this:  Queen isn't coming to visit the ranch although we do have some tea just in case. Another 10,000 people are driving with suspended licenses, so what's one more?  Imus probably won't send me a piece of his settlement, and I couldn't get to Europe for Streisand if I wanted, so I'll have to be happy with her CD's.  And about declaring a chimp a person?  Why if we do that, sure as hell, next thing you know some group would start a move to allow chimp/human marriages and that's too sick to imagine. 

 

I'm going to go get some real work done now - got a Peoplenomics report on the future of Libraries/Information Overload to finish and cabinets for my new office. See yah Monday morning...

 

Just What IS "Inflation"?

The phone rang Saturday afternoon and I missed the call - being up in the garden helping Elaine with supports for peas and other climbing plants.  But, when I *69'ed the number, it turned out to be from my deflationist friend Jas Jain, and the next thing you know, we were deep in a discussion about my assertion in Saturday's column that with slow GDP growth and high M-3(b) growth (after Bart and friends) that we could see standards of living decline by 11% if things continue as they are for a year.  Jas took me to task for such a simplistic approach - so I promised to present a more complete treatment in this week's subscriber report.  So let's dig in...

 

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Friday May 4, 2007

Jobs Report

Before we dig in to the April employment report, a couple of notes about outsourcing, which as you know is robbing one country of a job because someone in another country will do the same job for less.  The driver of this intercontinental thievery is money and the US isn't the only place where it's occurring.  An Oztralian electricity retailer is outsourcing jobs to India, for example. Big US companies, like Microsoft, have outsourced overseas - and in my recent installation of Office 2007, I had a chance to talk with tech support in India (which broke my computer) and in New Brunswick (which fixed it).

 

PC Magazine offers SMB's (small to medium businesses) some tips on when's the "right time" to outsource IT. But, much to their credit, they advise "Finally, remember that using external IT resources isn't about outsourcing to some big, faceless organization overseas. There are lots of small and medium-size businesses in your community that specialize in technology support."  Amen.

 

While the bulk of the shirt & tie crowd in finance thinks they are immune to such forces, I read (admittedly with some glee) that money managers are starting to farm out more research to India. Needs must as the devil drives...if the underlings can be outsourced, guess who's next?

 

OK, on to the jobs report - remembering that outsourcing will continue as long as there are wage-spreads - meaning someone elsewhere will do your job for less than you because they have a lower standard of living and they don't have a car lease and fat mortgage to keep up.  Also, remember these jobs numbers are for last month, and with our even-predictive friends calling for rapidly swelling employment this summer here in the US, this is rearview economics at its finest.  Ready?

"Nonfarm payroll employment edged up (+88,000) in April, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains continued in several service-providing industries, including health care and food services, while employment declined in retail trade and manufacturing.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons (6.8 million) and the unemployment rate (4.5 percent) were essentially unchanged in April. The jobless rate has ranged from 4.4 to 4.6 percent since September 2006. (See table A-1.)

Over the month, the jobless rates for the major worker groups--adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.8 percent), teenagers (15.3 percent), whites (3.9 percent), blacks (8.2 percent), and Hispanics (5.4 percent)--showed little or no change. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In April, total employment and the employment-population ratio fell to 145.8 million and 63.0 percent, respectively. The civilian labor force also fell over the month, to 152.6 million, and the labor force participation rate declined to 66.0 percent. The labor force participation rate was little changed over the year."

The release of the data this morning coincided with a pop up in gold and down in the dollar vis-a-vis the Euro. 

 

"Why do you think that was?" I can hear you asking.  Well, this month's ugly part of the number came when you read that the number of actual jobs was down 468-thousand...so to make it read well, the size of the workforce was reduced by 392-thousand.    Had the workforce number not been massaged down, the unemployment rate would be going where?  You got it: UP.

 

But here's the really shocking part:  The CES Birth-Death model this month added 317-thousand jobs, so if you were to ignore these hypothecated jobs, we would have seen the  decline in employment more on the order of down 775-thousand - over three quarters of a million for the month.

 

So what's the worst the unemployment number could be?  145,469-thousand working - and if the workforce didn't really SHRINK, then how about 4.9-5%?

 

In the numbers that I think matter most, Table A-12, measure U-6 (Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers) which I call the "Engineers flipping Burgers index, the rate is stuck at 7.9% - the same as a year ago.

 

Scotland: Florida Lite?

Big discussion in one of my ancestral countries - Scotland - about elections which are being marked with tainted ballots and surprising strength for the Scottish nationals who want to cut themselves off from the Crown.

 

Fed Decision

Most of the bets around Wall Street seem to be that the Federal Reserve meeting next week won't move interest rates.  Been a modest reprieve from the free fall of the buck this week -bouncing off 0.7315 Euro or so..  The pressure is up (with the falling dollar) to raise rates because we're 'watering down' the purchasing power of the dollar.  But, on the other side, we've got a housing bubble collapsing around us, so that's a reason to temporarily lower so victims of corporate predatory lenders can get into a new loan.  Yale's Robert Schiller figures this bubble is bigger than the internet heights of 2000, says the Financial Times.  And, on top of the collapsing housing bubble, we have the corporate debt bubble - which is what has driven up stock prices lately...but I digress.

 

As I have often suggested would be the case, the answer to the housing bubble collapsing may be the advent of longer term loans.  This month, for example, the State of New York Mortgage Agency (SONYMA) began offering a 40-year mortgage.   America, being a place living out the saying "if a little is good, more is better, and too much is best", I've concluded that what lies ahead will first be the 50-year mortgage and then the intergenerational mortgage.

 

The way this would work would be simple:  If you have kids, you simply obligate them to pay off your 100-year note, for example.  It would be a neat way to pass on wealth, too, when you think about it.  If you buy a piece of property at the right price today, when you kick the bucket, the kids will inherit both an obligation as well as presumably some equity in the home.  But, because what you are passing on is a debt (the equity can't be taxed until when or if the kids sell it), there's no tax consequence if I understand things right. 

 

So, next week, we'll seem what the (privately owned, masquerading as a government agency) central bank (The Fed) will do.  I'd bet "nothing." 

 

One thing to watch:  The demonizing of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela for threatening to "national banks" in his country.  This is a horrific concept to the central banksters.  Curiously, though, the Framers of the Constitution held the power to create "money" for the Congress, which abdicated given pressures from the bankster, so when you think about Chavez wanting to get the banksters in his country under control, it runs mighty close to what the Framers intended here, before the bankster coup here in 1913.

 

Dobbs on 60-Minutes

Lou Dobbs, says to 60-minutes this weekend that the US could deport all illegals, if the nation's leadership enforced existing laws.  Not that he's calling for that, but there are laws on the books which make illegal entry a felony, you know.  Putting it on my "watch list."

 

Drudge Poll

The republicorp 's debate had our favorite, Congressman Ron Paul, only 2 percentage points behind Rudy Giuliani last night when I checked.  Mitt Romney was leading the pack when I checked, but I wonder how a Romney-Paul ticket would play?

 

Gunzales?

Seems US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and his republicorp pals have plans to strip away your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms - even if you have never been charged with a crime, according to a report this week.  The bill (S. 1237) would give Gonzalez power to deny the purchase of firearms to anyone who is a "known or suspected terrorist."

 

Hmmm...with reportedly more than 450,000 people on "suspect lists" we have to wonder about the wisdom (sic) of letting an unelected official decide who gets to have rights and who doesn't.  But, I guess as I have noted so many times before, since the end of the Cold War, we've gone way "soviet" they've gone 'kapitalist", so I really shouldn't be surprised.  Saddened is more like it.

 

It's clear that the Framers of the Constitution intended for The People to grant limited powers to government, not for today's situation where The Government grants limited (and more so every day) powers to the people.

 


Thursday May 3, 2007

Another US Outpost

I'm not sure I understand the New World Odor (sic):  The US has gotten Romanian approval to put 3,000 troops into the former communist country.  My dumb question is "Why?"  They don't have any oil.  Meantime, we have thousands of foreign troops here on US soil (ostensibly for "training").  But you know what?  All this cross training and troop trading has a bad smell to it.  Why aren't Dutch pilots, for example, being trained in Europe instead of Ohio? And the list goes on.

---

There's also a move afoot (and seems like to be passed) to allow Japan to grow a larger military.  It's as though the industrialized countries, having no other way to tax and borrow money into existence have cobbled up this GWOT (global war on terror) to keep the money velocity high enough to mask deflation and keep all of us overworked so we won't think about what the leadership is up to.

---

Despite the hoopla and sleight-of-hand being played out by the republicorps and the democorps over the war spending bill, what's completely overlooked is that the US has a huge commitment to long term bases in Iraq so when the democorps start talking about a "withdrawal", what they aren't going after is all the money being poured into bases and those mercenary armies - which nearly equal the size of US front-line forces.  An article recently by Tom Engelhardt and Jeremy Scahill headlined "A Democratic Sellout on Bush's Mercenaries" makes the point more articulately than I can.

---

The People's Economist is a simple-minded fellow, but not so simple than he can't play FTM (that's 'follow-the-money') and it's clear enough to me that  the Housing Bubble continues to blow up,  and the number of mortgage companies imploding is up to 64 in the latest total cached by Google off www.mortgageimplode.com.   

 

By the way, this site, which had simply tracked the number of mortgage companies going 'toes up' has mysteriously disappeared.  We'll be checking later today, but maybe they've been ah...how do I articulate the fear...'influenced' not to tally such inconvenient truths? We'll keep pinging www.ml-implode.com and see if it comes back to life.  It's an important number - and one I can't help but note that our economic (no laughing at this) 'leaders' aren't saying much about.

---

So while the headlines are that George Bush and CONgress are seeking an "accord on [the] war bill" we'll just sit back and laugh at the absurdity of what may be Son of Tech Bubble, cum Son of Housing bubble, which will be the "Massive Global Military Bubble" where everyone will occupy everyone else's homeland.  We notice that India is short by nearly 15,000 officers in their military.  Yup, a fine growth business.  No spending limits, and a few flase flag ops and no opposition, and played right a country can lockup or steal natural resources from other countries.  Hell yeah, let's all play.

 

And then one day we wake up and it's One World Government that you and I didn't vote for.  The corporatist coup will be complete.  George Bush said it, but folks still can't or don't want to remember his comment that gave it all away while he was defending the inhibition of Constitutional rights embodied in the (misnamed) Patriot Act in 2005::

"Mr. President," one aide in the meeting said. "There is a valid case that the provisions in this law undermine the Constitution."

"Stop throwing the Constitution in my face," Bush screamed back. "It's just a goddamned piece of paper!"

Well, it's a lot more than that to me, and I expect you, too. But, as I line up the dots, the agenda is that we'll need another bubble soon.  The underplayed story this week is that "Hedge fund risks worst since '98 crisis, Fed says"  Militaries and wars are infinitely adjustable economic tuners.  Stand by for more escalation of Cold War II.

 

Depressing/Depressant Thoughts

We read that the FDA is asking makers of anti-depressants to warn about how these dangerous drugs can increase the risk of suicide.

 

Two points:  Antidepressants are a class of so-called medical treatments that mask symptoms, and this goes to my long-standing contention that there is more money treating symptoms than finding cures. Any big pharm board of directors knows that, for heaven's sake.  The second point is how did this crap get on the market and polluting (formerly) clear thinking America?  (Answer: Money!) and why are the press reports phrased "asking" (like this is all nicey-nice) instead of TELLING?

 

And these folks want to regulate vitamins and bottled water?  Hand me my pills, wudjah?

---

I think folks forget and leave their ability to think clearly in the other room when they watch enough TV.  Elaine asked me the other day about something: "How do you feel about that, I mean subconsciously?"  "How the hell would I know?  If I have a 'sub-conscious' feeling about something, the definition is I wouldn't be conscious of the feelings, right?"  she'd been watching TV and we both got a laugh out of it.  But there's a lesson in there somewhere, subconsciously, anyway. 

 

Roving

Emails from karl Rover are being subpoenaed by a Senate panel in the US Attorney firings (of those who wouldn't 'lay off' certain things).  Lotsa luck  - never gonna happen - again, all show and some pompous excuse about Executive privilege will follow, I'm sure.

 

Floods: That Was Quick...

Why it seems like just yesterday, I was mentioning about tankers popping out around the headlines in droves and explaining how the "floods" component of the linguistics forecast was yet unfulfilled for the Red River and Mississippi region.  We didn't have long to wait: About 8:45 last night, a serious storm came through East Texas and dumped more than 1.5" inches of rain in the gauge and up the road from us, Tyler Texas is at 20.72" inches of precip YTD versus normal of 15.0" and last year's 13.81.  So much for the Texas/Oklahoma drought, huh?  In Midland, Texas, there's been enough rain this week to hark back to the flooding in 1968 which caused so much damage - but it's not that bad this year.  On the other hand, "flood" is one of those news-scanning terms we'll just key an eye on for a while.

 

Beer Waste = Power

A report from Canberra says the Oztralians have figured out how to make power from brewery waste.  Truly, truly, this is technological progress of the sort we support.  More beer in hot weather would mean more brewery waste, which in turn would lead to more power - yeah, this is the life cycle kind of research we can personally get involved with.  (pssst...snap) Yeah...

 

Speaking of Blow Off Tops

I have to note that there's good news and bad about the Factory Order's number being the biggest gain in a year.  The good news is another all-time high for the Dow.  The bad news (which will come later) is that to support that kind of increase, people are going deeper in debt - which we'll pay for in the future. 

 


Wednesday May 2, 2007

Is the "George Postulate" Dead?

Ok - the "George Postulate" may not be 'dead' but we may be learning something more about how event-predictive linguistics works thanks to the rash of tanker fires that have popped up around the country since last Friday. This will take a few minutes to explain, but bear with me.  Let's start with background:

 

Don't know if you are aware (remember?) Dean Radin's work in the famous (in my circle, anyway) paper about 'time reversed human experience' still available as an archived piece  which lays out some of the science/baseline for how humans really do know the future before it shows up, and I don't know if I have ever recommended his book 'Entangled Minds" - but definitely worth a read.  (More recently, Radin is recommending a book "Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness" see: http://deanradin.blogspot.com/2007/04/quantum-enigma.html which sounds like a must-read, too, if you're looking at the problem of "weak AI" versus "strong AI", but I digress...

---

I had a very good conversation with Cliff yesterday about some of the things that seem to be resolving out of modelspace.  For example, flooding apparently is not done, as descriptors continue building, etc, but his subscribers to www.halfpasthuman.com reports will get the details.  But, one of the things that we've been talking about is the "feed-forward mechanism" of future events and how that seems to provide advance warning of  major emotionally impacting human events.

 

We've had two possible cases which may be demonstrating/presenting feed-forward up the timeline (.e.g. from the future 'back to present'):

·         The "masking" of the tsunami predictions (Aug 2004 '300,000 dead/land driven back to previous age") masking the 100-day later Banda Aceh tsunami by the Sept. 2004 Redwood City (CA) quake(s) and more recently

·         The partial fulfillment of the flood predictions (Dec 06, floods, 700,000 displaced, planes in water etc, but more importantly Ole Miss/Mississippi River/Red River references with the latter being unfulfilled so far)

A long-time reader may recall that in the wake of the Banda Aceh tsunami, I cobbled up something we called the "George Postulate" - which essentially said "A BIG event yet to come on the timeline can mask or mix at the archetype level with something smaller but with a highly correlated aspect/attribute layer, which will happen first. We seem to have experimental evidence that the larger the emotional impact, the more lead time is provided in linguistic clues, although they may be more vague, the farther ahead they appear.

 

To put it most simply, we're now wondering "Was the Redwood City quake a feed-forward up the up the timeline from Dec 04 -- and more importantly to this morning's discussion --was the NE Flooding in April of this year a feed-forward up the timeline of what is yet to come in terms of flooding still ahead?  While Cliff and Igor are pounding away at part 1 of the newest web bot run for subscribers, a simple hint is that floods aren't done yet.

---

It's far from a moot point from an intelligence/future forecasting kind of event because we occasionally see odd "clustering" of current events that can appear as though they may be causally linked to something like AQ, but they may really be (hypothesizing here) be 'feed-forward' to the present from events still ahead in on our timeline.

 

For example: This last weekend, we had a major tanker fire in San Francisco. We're still reading about that one today. But - much more importantly - there has been a whole rash of tanker fires in the past week: One in Houston and one closing I-55 in Madison County Mississippi. My friend Steve Quayle from Friday to last night counted FIVE incidents referencing tankers and fires.  At a waste site in Alabama "Firefighters had to quickly dampen the flames to prevent them spreading to a nearby diesel tanker..." .   A stolen tanker of sodium hydroxide has been recovered in Dallas.  In Australia, an explosion was feared from a tanker crash today..  Tanker accident in Mobile County (AL).  Propane tanker roll-over in Japan. Pensacola - tanker truck accident spills 4,000 gallons of fuel.

 

I'm not going to keep counting - you see the point I hope?  Universe is slapping us with tanker accidents all over the lace like a bad rash!

 

So here is the intelligence or analyst question to ponder and a possible conclusion: "Is the rash of tanker fires somehow interconnected in some meaningful law enforcement/homeland security kind of way? Or, as we've found ourselves wondering: Are we learning/seeing something here about feed-forwards and the time line?"

 

In other words, deep down at the archetype level where humans paint the pictures conjured up by the words we read and hear, is there a feedforward going on that we should be paying attention to? If so, what might be some of the archetypes at work?  Consider these:

·         Fire

·         Transportation

·         Road/Freeways

·         Gasoline/stored energy

·         Blockage"/restrictions on movement

This last is completely fascinating because it has been in the web bot runs fro a VERY long time - specifically that we will continue to experience an evolutions of restrictions on travel. We've already seen parts of that for sure - as the ratcheting up of airport security has taken hold is just one example. (You have no idea how disappointed I am that I can't take my 10 ounce bottle of shampoo with me on a flight so I can spontaneously wash my hair in the first class lav, but I digress. )

 

The key thing to observe is that there when we look at news events - and particularly the ones which cause large/huge emotional impacts by their disruptions of human routines - what component is "echo down the time line" (an example might be news stories about copy-cat murders, etc).  Next, what stories are single-point current events (single point on timeline events) with minimal personal impacts?  And last, what portion of news is feed-forwards (like a bow wave of a boat) that happen in advance of an even bigger event to follow?

 

Intuitively, humans want to know "what's going on" - but few ever stop the ask "Why do I want to know that?  The drive, I suspect is  not so much because we care about a tornado that happened in the past four hours, but more because by looking at "copy-cat" stories, we can see down the timeline (toward the last) or in the case of floods or tanker fires (I'm supposing), we can see 'up the timeline' (e.g. to the yet to arrive future). Is it our way to gain a sense of “now-ness”?

 

Those confined to "conspiracy think" would no doubt be comfortable looking at the current rash of tanker/fire archetypes popping out around the country and concluding "It's a 'false flag op' or 'it's a probe' by the TPTB’, while the law enforcement/homeland security question (and an appropriate line of inquiry, I'd add) would be to see if there is a 'hidden link'  in this outbreak of tanker accidents.

 

But for the time monks, and the hypothecating People's Economist who is still 'in training', there's a much more important question: Are we getting a print-through of things yet to come?

 

Given the rash of the tanker fires, I find myself asking "Gee, what else was going on related to many of the archetypes this past weekend?"  Hmmm...well, at least on the energy front, we had that bust of 172 terrorism suspects who were plotting to attack the Saudis key oil chokepoints.

 

OK, what do I get (down at the archetype level) when I think oil/gas/stored energy coupled with restrictions on travel?  Are the micro-events telegraphing a large thing to come in the next four months? 

 

No fair jumping to "oil embargo".  One of the things we can almost cast in stone about event predictive linguistics is "If you can think it, you're likely wrong.  A couple of years back, we had linguistics of 300 people, many finely dressed, standing on a cliff with a big wave coming at them - and that was followed by the cruise ship that took a near roll-over from a freak wave – at the archetype level, the people on the cliff were the people on the upper deck of the ship.  But who would have thought "freak wave nearly rolls ship"?  Certainly not us – we had people high up over water, wave coming at them and the idea that what they were standing on could tip, well, that was about as far from a possibility as you’d find.  Yet, it was 100% certain in that the subsequent ship-tipping happened.  And, that's one example of how the archetypes can be dead right, but the event that actually shows up, well that's another thing entirely.

 

So is "tanker/accident/fire/blockage" trying to tell us something? And if so, what?  A ponderance for the granfallooon.

 

Markets

A reader sent us a link to a chart - here - and a note that "50-day looks to be getting ready to cross over above 200-day few days, AND value is right on the 50-day, having risen past few weeks."  And my friend Robin Landry says his indicators just keep looking stronger.  Possibility:  The market can go into a protracted up here into 2008 before falling apart - at least that's one count of wave action. 

 

Personally?  I don't expect it to last that long, as Terra intrudes and all.

 

Commodities

Say, don't mean to be a nag about the commodity store and food and such, but we continue to watch the prices of commodities following the cold snap and the rains.

 

Resource Wars

Here's a headline that answers why we're in Iraq about as neatly as anything: "Pentagon Study says Oil Reliance Strains Military."  Yeah.  Think through the implications of no oil, no food, no water on the whole world and you tell me what's ahead...

---

Now that GWB has vetoed the military spending bill, a piece in the Economist "Who's winning?" is a worthwhile read.  Yeah, there really are people who would nuke or murder Americans any way they can...

 

Central Bankster Escapades

Gordon Brown says good bye between now and July as Britain's chief amongst mixed reviews. My review is simple: He sold England's gold off at as near to the bottom as one could get.  Smooth move, Gordo!

---

The World Bank says it will have a decision soon on Paul Wolfowitz future.  IJ wonder if he's using the time to send out resumes and call in favors?

---

Australia has held rated steady today.

---

Hey!  If Russia's Duma can Audit their central bank, why doesn't someone in CONgress grow some balls and audit ours?  Including a public walk-through of the gold in Ft. Knox?  Or, does "deep storage" really mean "yet to be mined"?

---

South Korea is issuing a new and bigger paper money denominations.  Say, that's progress, huh?  "Paper!  More paper!!"

--

In the Dominican Republic, the central banksters are blaming the  oil industry for inflation. It's never the watering down of paper to these bankster types, is it?

---

And last, but not least, in our "Stiff us and we'll bad mouth you" department: "IMF Study Critical of Zimbabwe Central Bank Monetary Management."  What monetary management?  They've got 2,000% annual inflation fer cryin' out loud!

---

And you wonder why Venezuela is pulling out of the IMF and World Bank(sters)?

 

Emails of the Day

From a reader with a unique perspective:

"Dear George.

I am a Canadian airline pilot currently working in the Persian Gulf and have been religiously reading you site as well as www.Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net  for 2 years. I can see what is coming our way with a magnifying glass from my vantage point. The other day I flew to New York with 38 passengers on an Airbus 340 and burned 98 metric tones of jet fuel in the process (beat that carbon foot print!) Here the middle class is being decimated with inflation about 18pc and stagnant wages. But this letter is not about financial crunch but about my son. I was explaining to him that we are returning to Canada next year and that we will no longer be able to afford our nanny. The kids love their nanny and she is part of the family now. So my son came up with a solution…”Daddy, we just have to pay her with paper money that way it will be cheap.” I can imagine TPTB coming up with this :” We just have to pay them with paper that way it is cheap!” So every month, I get my pay check and I convert it into hard asset like the check is on fire…Because it is.

Congratulation for your work."

And from another:

"THE SON OF E.HOWARD HUNT WAS A GUEST ON COAST TO COAST AM WITH GEORGE NOORY LAST NIGHT....

A TAPE OF HUNT WAS PLAYED WERE HE CONFESSED THAT LBJ WAS CHIEF CONSPIRATOR FOR JFK ASSASSINATION............

HUNT CONFESSED THAT (AS FAR AS BEING ONE OF THREE TRAMPS IN THE BOX CAR IN DEALEY PLAZA} HE WAS A "BENCH WARMER" FOR THE "BIG EVENT".

GEORGE NOORY HAS RELEASED THE TAPE TO EXECUTIVE PRODUCER OF CNN HEADLINE NEWS."

This ought to be very interesting to watch - will the corpress let this one out of the bag - I mean it's out to the aware people who go for more than spoon feeding, but will the spoon-fed ever hear of this?  We await...


Tuesday May 1, 2006

Another Driver Toward Internet Regulation

One of the hallmarks of the Second Depression (slowly materializing in front of your eyes, e.g. the housing bubble collapse, etc) is the move to regulate communications.  Think back to the last Depression and you have the Communications Act of 1934, for example.  Make radio a "licensed" activity and thus control access, got it?

 

So fast forward to present day - the arrival of citizen reporters (see third story down for a fine example) and read the report that nationally, newspaper circulation is down 2.1% and some big papers, like the Boston Globe have dropped nearly 4%.

 

It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out what's ahead:  The newspapers - with their op-ed pages and endorsements pulling the you-know-whats of elected officialdom will shortly find themselves deeply conflicted on the power of the Internet.  On the one hand the Constitutionally guarantees of a Free Press mean something.  But on the other, as circ falls, so does ad revenue, and soon the major media conglomerates will be begging for protective legislation.

 

With Internet2 making headlines about bandwidth ("Internet2 Breaks another speed record") the safest bet seems to be that I2 will be the domain of corporate and institutional players while the genuinely free-for-all that is internet1 will be relegated to stepchild status.

 

Heresy Indicator:  I expect newspapers will be all over in support of I2 being restricted to "commercial ventures"  That way, they'll be able to speak of "supporting free exchange of ideas" and at the same time, lock up the big pipe for their corporate profiteering.  Oh, and you know who pays for the pipe, right?  It's more of the "Do as we say, not as we do" approach to controlling society by the uberclassen.

 

MBA Ethics

34 Duke MBA students are accused of violating the school's honor code by cheating on an exam.  I'm a little confused here.  The story says they are wrong "for allegedly cheating on an open-book, take-home final in one of the school's required core classes."  How the heck can you cheat on an open-book test?  Maybe someone was selling answers - but hey!  These are MBA candidates - that's entrepreneurial spirit - massively increasing productivity which is precisely what they were being trained for! 

 

But we live in the land of situational/positional ethics:  If you're a President, you can get away with it.  If you're still in school, "Do as we say, not as we do..."

 

Sounds Like Advertising

An article out of Boston suggests that the next time you are in a store and hear some nondescript voice in your head saying "Pick up cereal" or some such, it may be new narrow audio beams coming at you.  The genuinely conspiracy minded would be asking about now "Voices in your head...hmmm...I wonder if this could be used to push people over the edge and cause them to commit serious crimes like mass murder and so forth...??".  Aye, a damn fine question 'at'd be...

---

Meantime, the Washington Post reports "Sony apologizes for dead goat prop" being used in promotion of a new video game - God of War II.  Killer game, we hear....

 

Alabama Militia Follow-up

Last week I reported on the story which Fox headlined "Feds Rain Alabama Militia Group, Uncover Small Weapons Arsenal".  Well, as it turns out, one of our readers is close enough to the situation to have been visited by the BATF folks and offers this account:

"George; I am acquainted with a couple of the men involved in the Alabama Militia bust. I would like to make a comment or two on your "editorial", if I may.

First of all, there were "silencers" found. I have actually seen the type devices involved. They are empty shells sold openly through "Shotgun News" for the Cobray MAC-10. They have the outward appearance of a silencer but have no real effect on the report from a 9mm round. The only purpose they serve is to provide a hand hold for a ridiculously unstable pistol. The "rifle grenades" are actually 12Ga shotgun slugs. That are also sold openly through mail order houses and at "ATF supervised" gun shows. "Commercial Fireworks"?!? I cannot drive 50 miles in the deep south without seeing at least 3 or 4 "Crazy Bill's" fireworks stands. And what redneck hasn't lit the fuses on a bazillion or so M-80's to see if he could blow up something? Anything. A stump (guilty), a can, an old car?

The other point I would like to comment on is your reference to "militia weapons" and how they are interpreted from the 2nd Amendment by the U.S. Supreme Court.

According to several of the "founding" documents of this republic, the militia consists of ALL able bodied men, of good character, from the age 18 to a high limit. That limit, I think, was originally 45, but has, in subsequent years, been raised. I -believe- the current high age is 55. Of this, I am not sure.

In the Miller decision, in the late '40s, the Supreme Court ruled that militia weapons were to be provided by the individuals, when mustered, and were to be "of the type in common use at the time".

Now, there is more to the Miller Decision than this. Much more. But the salient point is that every able bodied man is to be in possession of, and by implication, competent in the use of, basic military hardware. And to bring it with him when he musters. Therefore, it obviously is to be kept at his place of residence. And competency gained through regular practice.

So, what are the military weapons in common use at THIS time? Sure as heck isn't a .22 squirrel gun. I find the Swiss to really "have their stuff together" on this one.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

You probably have, or will, get more comments on your piece. I am in hopes that you will hear my comments because of my knowledge of the people involved. One of whom I have known close to 25 years.

I would prefer my name not be used openly, because these MEN have not yet been indicted or brought to trial. Which will probably be a farce. After Ruby Ridge, the ATF doesn't have much credibility with me.

I am a resident of Alabama, working out of state; going home a couple days a month when work permits. And, yes, I was visited by an agent (actually three; I'm a very dangerous man, you see) the day of the bust. I guess to keep me from contacting any of them. The reality is that, if not for the ATF visit, I wouldn't have known anything until it showed up on the news. Since I don't watch TV, that would be when it showed up on the web. Hmmmmf!"

It was while I was pondering this bit of information when another email showed up - again, from a citizen journalist/events watcher:

"Apparently the feds, including BATF agents, were having racist (white-supremacist) "good old boy" gatherings http://www.no-debts.com/anti-federalist/gadsden.html 

The local militia video-ed and documented the gathering proceedings and exposed them. Years later, the Alabama bust was "pay-back."

I'm not so sure about that "pay-back" conclusion offered by the reader.  As I've been watching the follow-up stories on this  "Anti-Government Militia's Arms Stockpile No Big Deal, Lawyer Says"  I notice the mention the "hand grenades" but North Carolina's Wilmington Star reports in "Much Ado About Nothing" that "A cache of ammunition that was confiscated - 2,500 rounds - wasn't that large, and the scores of homemade hand grenades that agents seized could be made with powder from fireworks and components readily available in military surplus stores, attorney Scott Boudreaux said."

 

Several thinking points about this story:

1)  It demonstrates that here on the internet, citizen reporters/sources are extremely useful in getting an accurate picture of events (email #1),

2) Also on the internet you get a lot of theories like (to paraphrase the insurance commercial)  "pay-back - this time its for real" which may - or may not - be motivations (email #2)

3) The biggie for me is noticing that both of the stories linked made mention of an informer.

Now, to me, this last point is most crucial.  Why?  With tons of money sloshing about DHS and related LE groups to be spent ferreting out those who would do harm to this Great Country, the question comes up again about paid informers.  It's an especially delicate situation if an informer can play a role as a provocateur - in which case you get to the fine line between defending America from harm (a good thing) and having the government "set people up" -- something which raises a lot of troubling Constitutional questions.

 

We'll just keep an eye on this and see what comes of it. Yes, commercially available items can be turned into ugly (and illegal) devices. (Ask any GI in the Green Zone.) That's the law, those are the rules, and we live by them or suffer the consequences.  Fine. In the courts now.

 

But, I'm more interested in the informant's role ---was he paid? --and if so, was the compensation was tied to results...that it seems to me is the most serious aspect of this.  The philosophical question might be: "How much money does it cost to find someone willing to bear false witness or set someone up?" versus "We gotta have people on the inside to know what's being planned to prevent harm to innocents."  Where are the Framers of the Constitution when we need 'em?

 

UK Terror Convictions

This gets us around to this one: Five British men have been convicted of terrorism charges and off to the lock-up for them.  Paragraph two of this version of the story mentions the role of an FBI informant in the case.

 

Climate Watering

The US ands China find themselves on the same side of the climate debate - wanting to water down UN action.

 

Rancherly Things

The four little kittens - at five weeks - are making the transition from mom's food to human supplied stuff. One of our readers sent along the ultimate in cat treats from the www.flintriver.com store - some dried Bonita strips.  Yum - if you're a cat.   If you want one of the young mousers in training (and live in Texas) please drop us a line - first bag of cat food is on us.

 

We've decided to limit our cat herd to two.  The problem with cats is if you have cat food, you have other animals about.  Like mice.  If you have mice you have snakes.  My preferred snake disposal tool is a 12-gauge shell.  My retired SF buddy across the street uses pruning loppers - but I'm a believer in action at a distance.

 

Meanwhile Tom, Tom, the cat outside is doing less catting about since his trip to Dr. Snippet DVM last week.  We suspect Tom has a drug problem - he's apparently found something like wild catnip and spends long periods rubbing his chin on various patches of the lawn, then rolling around like he's had several too many. Knocks up Pusscilla the momma cat and then reverts to doing cat drugs.  Yup, a fine imitation of a soap opera human.

 

The folks at Pogue Press/O'Reilly have sent a copy of "Windows Vista - The Missing Manual"  So here's my question:  Please let me know if you have upgraded from XP Home to Vista x and let me know if your computer ran faster or slower?  Thanks.  The book makes it sound like a step forward...

 

I'll be installing the heat pump for my new office this week - leaving just cabinets and moving ahead.  Elaine has posted armed guards around my new 9X20 gear-driven lathe until I get that done, just to keep me motivated, along with reminders that putting the castable refractory in my metal-melting furnace is not the highest priority around the ranch with kid goats due in a few months. 

 

She's right, of course:  Putting up the new ham antenna is....

 


Monday April 30, 2007

That Melting Point of Steel - Again

Folks in the San Francisco area are waking up to a hellacious traffic mess today as a weekend tanker truck fire that destroyed the viaduct connecting eastbound I-80 with eastbound 580.  That's the upper deck - there was also damage to the lower deck and officials will get repairs going as fast as they can -- once the investigation into the accident is complete.

 

 For now, the thinking is that the truck was traveling too fast and the driver is reported hospitalized.  One key thing from the coverage "Engineers estimated that the flames reached close to 3,000 degrees -- hot enough to melt the green steel frame and bolts of the I-580 overpass. "

 

That's hotter than the 800-1500° temps of burning jet fuel...although steel does lose about half its strength at 1100°.  The ignition temperature of gasoline is quite low (around 500°) and the more fuel and air the hotter. If you're old enough, you may remember the old style gas-fired blow torches - the blue flame from those hit closed to 3000° - when burning blue.  Yellow flames are cooler - relatively.

 

You might be interested in some of the physical constants that fire investigators consider, but for this morning it just seems like the melting point of steel has intruded a little much into life, again.

 

Mall Killings

Four dead out of a shopping mall shoot out this weekend.

 

Prostitution "Secrets Revealed"

As the web bot meme "secrets revealed" continues to wash through media reports, we're particularly intrigued with what  Deborah Palfrey - who claims she was only running a legal 'escort service' will reveal when she names names on ABC 20/20 Friday night. 

 

On Friday there was a resignation from the administration allegedly over the "D.C. Madam" story - and seems likely there will be more.  It stands to reason that the public isn't the only one's being screwed in DC.  But, you knew that, right?

 

Actor President II?

I find it curious that Ronald Reagan's allies are backing actor/lawyer Fred Thompson for the White House.  Sort of the ultimate "Law and Order" candidate, huh?

 

Hillary Book

Watergate legend Carl Bernstein's new book on Hillary Clinton is reported less than complimentary on (among other fronts) her much hyped career claims. Great quote from the Sarah Baxter article for the TimesOnline: "The book could revive the explosive charge, made earlier this year by David Geffen, a former Clinton donor and Hollywood mogul, that “the Clintons lie with such ease, it’s troubling”. "  Go Hillary, go....away.

 

Do as We Say Department...

Another story about a celebrity who says one thing for us to do about global warming and seems to do something else.

---

Speaking of inconvenient truths, turns out that significant climate change is showing up - on Mars

 

OK, so the ugly truth (hidden in all the crap) is that yes, humans are burning through fossil fuels and yeah, that's maybe 5% of the global warming problem.  But 95% is due to changes in output from the Sun and energies coming in from the galaxy.  But hey!  Why not use the 'global warming' scare to stampede corporations into a new game of trading carbon credits?  Just think what a fine way to go on to another bubble this could be!  Yee haw!

 

Why next thing you know, we'll have personal carbon credits - a sort of dual currency!  I love it!

 

I'm not the lone skeptic here - you did catch last week's report "Industry caught in carbon "smokescreen" in the prestigious Financial Times, right?

 

Mouse Brains

Moving up the food chain a little, we're very pleased to learn that a computer has not been able to simulate a mouse brain. I can see the code flashing by in my head:

GOSUB "Cheese"

IF "cat" GOSUB "Run!"

IF "corner" GOSUB "crap"

IF "warfarin" END

Food Gestapo

The usual big government suspect have been at it again - with a vote scheduled on a plan to give the FDA control of food supplements.  Even bottled water could be regulated if it's used to treat dehydration, we hear.

---

Say - here's an UrbanSurvival Constitutionally sound revolutionary idea:  How about an amendment to the Constitution which would make it a crime to reintroduce regulations that have been turned down once already?  Seems like every so often, the Power That Be keep reintroducing things until the public just gets tired and gives up on an issue - like this regulation of vitamins thing..  But I've seen it in other things too - like using public money to bankroll facilities for pro sports - that kind of thing.

 

Reader Notes

OK, here's the inbox:

"Hi George,

Excellent Peoplenomics this weekend. Here is a piece that should warrant the attention of every UrbanSurvival reader

http://mises.org/story/2533 

Cheers"

The story (if lifting your clicking finger is too much work on a Monday for you, you lazy no good for nothing...) is about how Panama has no Central Bank and seems to get along fine.

Next email?

"We are in the process of replacing some furniture and flooring.

The furniture stores are all but empty, we were to at least four of them and one of them advertises heavily.  We found something we liked at the heavily advertised store and therefore made several trips and every trip there was no store traffic.

We visited the flooring store several times and usually were the only customer.

I live in the Philadelphia suburbs and the heavily advertised furniture store is in King of Prussia one of the biggest and wealthiest shopping centers in the country.

I imagine your friend Jas Jane would not be surprised. Feel free to share."

Speaking of Jas...

 

Just What IS "Inflation"?

The phone rang Saturday afternoon and I missed the call - being up in the garden helping Elaine with supports for peas and other climbing plants.  But, when I *69'ed the number, it turned out to be from my deflationist friend Jas Jain, and the next thing you know, we were deep in a discussion about my assertion in Saturday's column that with slow GDP growth and high M-3(b) growth (after Bart and friends) that we could see standards of living decline by 11% if things continue as they are for a year.  Jas took me to task for such a simplistic approach - so I promised to present a more complete treatment in this week's subscriber report.  So let's dig in...

 

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