Smoke, Mirrors, and Advertising

Oh, oh.  George is on a Saturday morning rant:  Once in a while, a story comes along that is so fundamentally important, yet covered by so few in MainStreamMedia/LameStreamMedia for its true significance, that it demands a further airing here along with a little personal commentary and common sense.

Such a story, and quite well written at that, is found under the AP headline "Execs: Web Ad Spending Should be Higher:' which then continues, as Internet ad market grows, Advertisers want better Audience Measures.

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Now let's do what a TV producer would call a jump cut.  What I do for a living, when I am not writing about the pending problems for the economy, is serve as a sales and marketing consultant for a couple of really neat companies (as well as a few individuals)  - including the world's first online machine shop,. and a dandy new high-end tequila.

No, this is not a chance of do a free ad for my services (well, OK, it is...) but I want to explain that one of the key values I bring to my clients is the simple notion that good management, of the "what gets measured gets done" type, argues that if money spent on advertising and public relations doesn't result in a measurable improvement in sales, then it gets axed.

Needless to say, this viewpoint has gotten me into many a long and sometimes heated discussion with advertising and PR firms who have worked for past consulting clients, but the evidence is very clear to me that we now live in what I'd label as a "direct response" world, and the days when a company could engage in 'institutional advertising' are long gone.

The difference between direct response and institutional is worth noting.  There was actually a time in the US when people did business with companies because they were institutions.  My parents, for example, had two bank accounts when I was growing up;  One at Washington Mutual's West Seattle branch, which was close to the fire station he ran.  The other was the old Seattle First National Bank, which later became one of the umpteen Bank of America acquisitions.

These banks were local "institutions" in Seattle in the 1950's and 1960's.  They would advertise not so much to drum up new business, but to continue their 'institutionalness" if I can coin a word properly at this hour.

At the other end of the spectrum, we had direct response marketing beginning to appear in the 1960's.  The objective of direct response is to get a consumer to take an immediate action right now and it was best demonstrated with the huge success of gadgeteer king Ron Popeil's firm Ronco, and the "Call now, operators are standing by, this is a free call" pioneering of Philip Kives' K-tel.

Having spent years in the broadcasting business, I was always fascinated by the adroit way that slick media salespersons would justify a particular ad campaign's NOT working.  "You can't expect a large response on Seafair hydroplane weekend," or "It was raining, and you know people don't come out when it's raining..."  In Seattle?  Gimme a break!

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Returning to the point (as I try to, now and then) the ad execs of today who are pimping online advertising seem to be trying to get past the absolute accountability of the Internet.  If a client starts up a Google Adwords campaign, there's little doubt about whether it's working or not.  The number of impressions, the number of clicks, and the number of sales conversions is easily tracked.

Click scams, however, abound.  The simple way to track these is to set up a landing page for each media.  Quite simple.  Each media, with very little testing, will show a unique cost per click and a unique cost per sale.  The ONLY thing to look at is cost per sale.  Period.  The rest is advertising woo-woo.  Let me explain:

When I read articles like the well-done AP piece, I am reminded that advertising sales types are always trying to find some meaningful way to charge for 'impressions".  Think of these are clicks that don't buy, ears that don't buy, or eyes that don't buy.  Their value to any business?  Just about zero. 

As a marketing/management science fundamentalist, I hold that impressions which don't result in a click aren't worth a dime.  If they are, then at some point, the customer will click and buy, and the advertiser will get their due upon delivering the actual, measurable, results.

"But what if they buy elsewhere, yet they heard about your whiz-bang product two or three times via our great (plug in a media type) campaign which got them thinking 'front of head" about buying your product?"

My usual response is something like this:  "It's a closed Universe, you simp. (As in 'simpleton' although the other definitions may fit, too.)   If someone saw my product on some other web site four times, and then called in reaction to a TV commercial, my tight sales-tracking approach will capture that TV 'made the deal.'  On the other hand, it works the other way:  The TV rep comes in and claims when some pair of eyes sees the ad on XYZ cable 3-times that they should get some 'credit' for the online purchase.  So, my client (fill in the name) is only going to pay for actual results delivered by each media.  If I can't measure it, it didn't happen.  Now get out of my office, my egg timer just went off"

Advertising outfits hate me.  So do PR firms.  They don't like the absolute accountability offered by CTR's on the web.  Ergo, today's story.   If the "singularity" means that some of the smoke-and-mirrors of advertising will be blown away by complete accountability, what could be better for business? 

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Of course all this begs a much larger issue, which is not in MainStream/LameStream because it's too difficult to imagine.  Suppose for a moment that advertising and PR did not exist and you were just bringing it to market today.  Or, to make it a little easier, pretend that television was just coming to market as a new medium:  Where's the environmental impact statement?  Would (or should) government allow us to be bombed with high levels of electromagnetic energy 24/7 just so some retailer can reach out and sell us something?  Aren't humans well-enough read to figure out that they are hungry and need some food, or cold and wet and need a house, or walking and need a car?

Advertising in general pulls future demand into the present, and so in a sense, it is always robbing the future, just as runaway capitalism robs the planet of future resources to achieve its highly consumptive, but short-term more profitable goals.  If you aren't getting 100,000 miles out of every car you buy, thank advertising.  The reality is that cars get folks from here to their.  Advertising has created a meta-reality where cars equal sex, image, power, and success.  Gag me.  Someone sees me driving a slightly beat up 8-year old car and thinks they are somehow 'better' is a complete victim of the illusion.  I don't have a mortgage on our home.  I wasn't buying.  Turned off that message.

Think about it:  If you were in a position to vote on television being thrust on the world, or even video games, where would you draw the line?  Is the long-term cultural evolution of the planet to develop blobs of cholesterol-seeking chumps & chumpettes who move seamlessly from the here and now reality into the lah-lah land of some kind of imagined action-figure in sports, or the completely fictitious worlds of video games?

To be sure, there may be some therapeutic reasons for video games and TV, but I've only found three:  When I was getting over my appendectomy a few years back, television was a way to fill the days. Seeing Jim Cramer say "the truth doesn't matter" on Wall Street. And sure, Porsche: Need for Speed has helped me avoid bidding on a number of late 1980's odd-year Porsches on eBay.  But, beyond that?

On the other hand, nice to know that the ad salesmen haven't giving up on trying to take credit for reach and frequency that don't result in sales.  If you are dumb enough to buy impressions that don't have a measured payday, I'm sure you'll get grand holiday presents from your agencies and maybe even a party.  Adwords is so extravagant.

Bottom line: The best advertising advice I can give you, online  or off, is that if you're paying for clicks without measured results, then you're most likely not getting what you paid for.

(If you're a small business owner, think of this as your Christmas present...)

Stock's Valley of Death

Let me see:  Last Friday, the Dow was up 253.86 and this week it was down 285.73.  Yeah, that sure makes me want to run out and throw my life savings into a long shot.  The Washington Post summed up the counter-currents this way: "With Consumer Inflation Up Sharply, Stocks End a Down Week.  I would have spelled it Weak, but, already the happy-talk is gearing up to keep the hypnosis going:  The UK's Guardian is headlining: "Wall St Week Ahead: Housing and consumer data may buoy stocks." Guardians of the paradigm?  Question everything!

Will the stock market rally next week?  Ever hear of the 'Santa Claus Rally"?

Bali High

US has compromised on climate change.

Narco What?

I'm continuing to watch the situation in Bolivia closely as terms like narco-communism are showing up, although narco-corporate might also apply.  That 'revolution' meme coming along nicely.

GCE

On the Global Coast Event a reader writes:

"I’m not tryin’ to bust your balls or anything, but whatever happened to the ‘global coastal event?’"

Oh, it's there, alright, just as the time monks have noted, this is going to be one of those big stories that happens in such slow motion that the general public may not be seeing it.  However, if you are a climate refugee, it's becoming all too apparent.

Then there's the story about the role of extra sunshine in the meltdown that's going on in the Arctic.  And, as I've said before, it's not just that the Arctic is heading for ice-free, it's that as that happens, there are all the glaciers about that will be dumping water into the world's oceans, which will then rise, and that will be our global coastal event.  Oh, did I mention about the impacts of thermal expansion of water just from the warming, too?

Gold Story:

Here's an email of interest:

"I went to my PM dealer (a wholesaler) to pick up a few coins today, and he was out of almost everything gold, with only onesies and twosies of everything but Krugs, which he was totally out of. Since he is the supplier for the county's coin shops, I suspect the "shortage" theme is hitting the gold market too."

Yeah, the headlines go to the idea that gold has hit a one-week low while the dollar has bounced, but in my frame of reference, it's likely the big guys dropping the price so the big guns can load up - I can't be the only one seeing a high inflation rate in Friday's CPI figures, despite the Pollyanna/inflation apologists about.

Restrictions on Travelers Checks?

Odd email:

Hi George,

Don't know how long there has been a limit on AMEX Travelers checks, but now I see that there is limit on how many you can buy every 2 WEEKS!

"There is a maximum order size of $1000.00 that can be purchased within a 14-day period."   (Holy smokes, what next? - G)

I thought this might be an easy way to keep some savings in the home safe in a currency that might survive the dollar devaluation. This seems like another way to keep people from opting out of the USD.

Love the site. Keep up the good work."

Looks that way to me, too.  I'm sure that a claim that it keeps narco folks from using travelers check might come up, but count me as skeptical.

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Coping:  Is a bug-Out Bike a Good Idea?

Some good discussion on this point:

One of the BEST sites for kit lists and REALISTIC equipment talk is the forums at www.equipped.org 

People who not only talk the talk, but walk the walk.

Bugging out should be your LAST option. The very LAST thing you want to be is a refugee. Just look at history.

Avoid the Stadium.

OK, and maybe a back pack is not such a good idea:

The thing that must be considered before all others is this; what is the context? Are we bugging out because we are about to get flooded? Are we snowed in? Why exactly are we bugging out and why can't we drive?

If the situation is really that bad, you should consider some form of self defense or a way of harvesting game. If you go pedaling down the road with your big bag of food, it will only be a matter of time until you meet up with someone who did not think to pack a big bag of food, and they will do whatever they have to do to get yours.

I would recommend the good old 30-30 as a survival weapon, because they are light, a dream to carry, you won't be weighed down by magazines and ammo is readily available. Some form of .22 would be good too.

I do not recommend moving on roads unless you are part of a large group, it's too easy to get ambushed. Use the roads as a "handrail," but stay off them and out of sight.

I would also recommend moving at night. It's easier to stay warm during the coldest times if you are moving. You can lay up during the day and not worry about someone spotting your cook fire (those wood gas stoves that you can make from tin cans come in handy here). Day is when most other people will be up and moving around. If you are keeping still there will be less chance of a surprise meeting. You can't move as quickly at night, but there is less chance of being spotted.

When moving in times like these, speed is not your friend. Slow deliberate movements will allow you to avoid contact with others whose intentions are not clear. When you are walking you can stop and LISTEN. Get up a good head of steam on a bike and you will be in the middle of someone's ambush before you even realize that it's there.

In most cases, bugging out will not help you. If you can stay put, that will be the best thing to do. Staying close to your food and your friends is preferrable to tramping the roads. Having dealt with a few of them, I must say that the life of a refugee is not alot of fun.

Above all, have a plan.

And speaking of ways to move things:

I plan to use a deer drag to tote some stuff if I have to make it on foot. Tie everything down well with rope or bungee cords. Don't bounce it around a lot over rocks, etc.--they do break. But they are easier on the back.

Several readers have suggested that I keep all the snip and saves in a single folder/page - which I will do when I get some time.  Today, busy with finishing up the goat barn and working on the Annual Report and 2008 Forecast for Peoplenomics.com subscribers who make this free site possible with their subscriptions.

Send submissions to the clip and save section to george@ure.net.

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Friday December 14, 2007

Prices Roaring

OK, as a sign of season beneficence, I'm going to bit my tongue and not do anything other than report this morning's jobs numbers:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in November before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The November level of 210.177 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in November 2006.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.8 percent in November prior to seasonal adjustment. The November level of 205.891 (1982-84=100) was 4.6 percent higher than in November 2006.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in November on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The November level of 121.178 (December 1999=100) was 3.6 percent higher than in November 2006. Please note that the indexes for the post-2005 period are subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.8 percent in November, its largest advance since a 1.2 percent rise in September 2005. The index for energy advanced 5.7 percent and accounted for nearly 70 percent of the overall CPI increase in November. The index for petroleum- based energy rose 9.5 percent and the index for energy services, 0.7 percent. The food index rose 0.3 percent in November. The indexes for food at home and for food away from home each increased 0.3 percent. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 0.3 percent in November, following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the preceding five months. In November, the index for shelter rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.1 percent in October and the apparel index increased 0.8 percent.

Oh, what's this?  Now that the military and social security increases are set, the index pops up at a 10% annual rate.  Why am I so suspicious?

Christmas at the End of the World

Up in the Pacific Northwest, still trying to recover from the devastating flood damage, the time monks are a little worried about what's ahead.  OK, more than a little worried:  The markets continue to teeter, there's some very early indication that the January 2008 linguistics about the return of the global pandemic meme might be in the offing with bird (or some other strain of ) flu, the strength of references to "revolution" keep getting strong and then, as if that's not enough, there's the global crisis of huge proportions shaping up in modelspace for October 2008.

As if that's not enough, there's this little problem of calendars.  "What is the calendar changes which would have us believe the Mayan long count (baktun) is actually ending in December 2007, not 2012 because of fiddling with the calendar so that certain 'great alignments' happened in the year 2000?  Alignments in 2012 have been discussed on various boards since way back when...."  Well, you get the idea.

Two other memes which have continued to rivet my attention (like 'revolution', 'flooding' and 'secrets revealed' haven't been enough.  That's the 'encounters with scarcity' and the ever evolving 'restrictions on travel' memes which seem to have at least some support using a technique called 'word frequency analysis':

The signing of the British formal entry into the EU, long a hotly debated issue in the UK, became a 'done deal' this week (with gold-seller Gordon Brown missing from the cerimony).  And, the event prompted Stan and Holly Deyo to note that "This is the last country that needed to sign to complete the prophesied revived Roman Empire."

How Long Can They Drag It Out Department

Princess Diana inquest?

Anna Nicole Smith inquest?

North-South Korea border talks?

Drugs Anyone?

Baseball?  Sure...

Presidential politics?  Why not?

Does an apology for a slimy campaign tactic tell you anything?

Good Little Dictator

The Pakistan government says that full rights will be restored when US backed president Musharraf lifts his emergency order.  When will that be?  Saturday?  And about that poll showing 67% of the population wants him out?  Pay it no mind say his henchmen.  Ooops.  I mean aids.

Bolivia Blow-up Bet

With about half the states opting to remain autonomous, the presidential rewrite of Bolivia's constitution could make the place fall apart this weekend - the army is on alert.

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Coping:  Pack Plan

Lots of responses to the question from yesterday about what a person should put into a pack,. if one were going to bug out on a mountain bike.  Here's a couple (more to come tomorrow, but the blue screen of death from Vista killed me at 7:35..)

"Hi George, It is a nice night in central Ontario.. only -5C atm... but was -25C the other night.. brrrr. I live here, heat with wood.. am getting tough and all that, but think I'd likely die in the woods on a night like that.

First.. how far you could travel... a little story.

A local "tea room"/ pioneer schoolhouse, has an old book with local history in it. It tells a tale of a fella who travelled from the big city, which is just over an hours drive, doing about 80-90 km/h, or just around 50 miles to my little village of Gilmour.

It took him, on foot, no roads.. 11 DAYS!

Before we had three feet of snow in the bush, I was regularly scouting and opening ATV trails on my property.... granted it is rough terrain.. there is a reason settlers couldn't make a go of farming up here.. think huge glacially deposited boulders, hilly, exposed granite, and boggy marsh in the low spots. There are places a 50lb pack would be nearly impossible to track through.... for normal people of course.. I'm no navy seal.. or marine.

Soooo, my point is.. how far you could travel with a pack, sure does depend on where you live, but needless to say... our current dogma of travel, and how long it should take, based on our experiences in cars.. is sure skewed out of balance with the reality of carrying essentials on your back and using human power to move over the face of our world. Eleven days.. to travel what we consider an hours drive.. ouch.

back to feeding the woodstove between naps... gotta be tough to be dumb.. eh."

Another:

"I'm sure that you will get plenty of responses on question #1. I'm going to focus on question #2. Unless you are in your 20's and in excellent shape, lugging a 50# pack will flat wear you out. When I backpack in the mountains, I limit myself to 40# total weight and 8# of that is water. At the end of day 1, I 'm down to about 35#.

In the 35# weight range, a young athletic person can walk 10 miles every day. Please understand that a recreational walker would not fit into this category. An average person could travel between 5 to 8 miles daily. Unless you are in good shape, you will be dragging after 3 days and begging for a day of rest. You feel like a human pack mule and quickly learn why backpackers love ultra-light equipment.

If you insist on carrying a 50# pack, plan on walking 5 miles or less daily unless you are a recently discharged Marine and accustomed to forced marches.

I don't have much bicycling experience while wearing a heavy pack but I imagine that you could increase your distance by a factor of 3 to 5 depending on the terrain but that's a guess."

And check this:

"I can only relate my National Guard experience:

- Camelbak water canteen - one set of outer clothes - two sets of underwear, T-shirts, & socks - one set of sleeping wear - if you wear boots, pack one set of sneakers - sleeping bag - Army poncho liner - small "squeeze" pillow - leather work gloves - couple of trash bags (for rain, trash, etc) - Forever Flashlight (actually a Nightstar II) - firestarter kit (magnesium block, matches, lighter, etc) - four-season one-man tent (get the really small ones from www.backpackinglight.com ) - Gerber multitool - titanium fork-knife-spoon set - shortwave AM/FM solar/hand-crank radio

That's all I need in my "two-day" ruck for a weekend in the woods. Of course, food and water is provided by the US Army. I left out the folding chair I use and the mattress liner for when I use my duffel bag and not the rucksack. If you're looking to count ounces of weight (and mass), nothing beats the titanium cookware out there."

Send in all your "Coping" ideas to george@ure.net - almost everything is fair game, but no more fire starter ideas - kinda overloaded on them!

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Thursday December 13, 2007

A Longwave Econ Primer

Grab the coffee, it's time for a quick review of the Kondratieff Wave and what it means, and why not only me, but several colleagues think that a lot of economist's assumptions about the Longwave are wrong.

First, let me give you the 'academically blessed' viewpoint, summed up well in this picture out of Wikipedia that gives an idea about how the Longwave is thought to look - a 48-62 year, nominally 54-56.8 year, depending on who you talk to) cycle.

The problem with the conventional Longwave is that it is assumed to be somehow mechanistic, and as a very wise colleague who I referred to in last night's update, myself, and the time monks as it turns out, agree, the 'accepted' interpretation of Kondratieff as a fixed-length cycle is likely wrong because it is rooted in the old paradigm of a mechanistic/reductionist world, and fails multiple reality checks.

The Wars

One telltale that 'things ain't right' for the mechanists of this wave theory is that by their interpretation, the  deflationary/depression lows of 1933 (and then the secondary depression of 1937) should have happened with clock-like regularity some 56 years later. Plus or minus a couple.

By this reasoning, 1989 (or thereabouts) should have been a Kondratieff depression low.  To be sure, a few colleagues from the old Longwave econ discussion group, hosted by the Center for a Sustainable Future at the University of Colorado have steadfastly held to this view, and to make their case, they point to 1987's mini-crash as being the functional equivalent of 1929, and conveniently for them, it occurred about 58-years after the '29 event.

However, there's a small cadre of independent-thinking researchers, including yours truly, who have held that the K-Wave is not mechanistic, and like all waves in Nature, will have a variable periodicity, based on environmental constraints.

A key highlight of the K-Wave is that there are Peak Wars and Trough Wars:  When the K-Wave has decimated an economy, you get a war to spark recovery.  Such was World War II - a trough war.  At the other end of the spectrum, about halfway through a K-Wave, you get a Peak War.  Yes, Vietnam was our most recent Peak War.  Little wars happen, such as Gulf War I, but they have not been sufficiently large to spur the kind of infrastructure destruction required, and most importantly the repudiation of sufficient debt, to reset the Longwave cycle clock.  You need something really, really big. 

You might speculate, as I often have, that the bursting of the Internet Bubble in 2000 was the final blow-off top prior to a collapse into a Longwave abyss.  So far, that's been a good general model.  Trillions of debt were destroyed/repudiated, and interest rates have been in a general decline. 

On a conspiratorial note, the occurrence of the Twin Tower attack seemed too perfectly timed from a Longwave standpoint:  It gave government an opportunity with no economic discussion, to implement a massive public works program of comparable magnitude to the Civilian Conservation Corp of the 1930's and the Works Progress Administration.

From a policymaking standpoint, it could be argued that 9/11 although a terrible tragedy, has served to prevent a much broader collapse of the economy by starting a second war with Iraq and giving the Bush administration the equivalent of carte blanche to spend on the WOT - a money pit of gigantic size.  Regrettably, there will be no heritage in terms of infrastructure enhancement like there was in the 1940's from CCC and WPA (did I mention the Rural Electrification Administration, too?).

No, this time we get depleted uranium and thousands of injured, but perhaps there's an agenda here to make healthcare the next 'big industry'.  Speculation going to the idea that the capitalistic system needed to waste some significant portion of its output perhaps even 30% +, has been openly discussed since Leonard Lewin's satirical book (or is it?) the "Report from Iron Mountain on the accessibility and desirability of peace"   (full text).

Three K-Wave Driver Options

As my learned colleague and I discussed in a couple of papers/reports in early 2001,  not only is there a mathematical basis for a variable Longwave period, but as a consequence of malinvestment in the economy, you will see toward the end of a K-Wave expansion (just before the Bust), a huge increase in debt and financial abstractions.  We called this mighty accumulation of debt immediately prior to a crash the Debtberg©.

While it's not nice to 'rub people's noses in it', I'd offer that our work in late 2000 and early 2001, prompted by the absolute crystal clarity of the Roaring Nineties being analogous to the Roaring Twenties, has been a 24 kt. thought tool to prepare for 'what's next' and upon which I've based all major long-term personal decisions.

Just as people flocked to the cities in the population shifts of the post automobile era from 1920 on, so too, I believe the reverse strategy will be best this time around, a return to a diversified rural setting where individual sustainability will be more achievable and certainly less energy intensive, but that's something I'm putting into the book I'm working on "13-Acres and Independence", and update of the classic 1930's work "5-Acres and Independence" applied to current times.

We have to ask ourselves a simple question:  What has changed since the 1920's that could possibly change the length of the K-Wave?

The first possible event-driver, dealt with in purely mathematical terms by my learned colleague, is that due to fluctuations in interest rates during a Longwave cycle, there is an upper limit of about 84-years to any fiat-money runaway inflation.  The accumulation of the long-term debt along the way constituted what we called the Debtberg and just as an iceberg rolls over when it gets top-heavy, we expect that what we're seeing now in financial market debt-saturation will be about as easy to stop as an iceberg going turtle.  Can't be stopped, only slowed or ameliorated along the way.

The second possible Longwave driver is one that I personally favored (until yesterday, when Cliff at HalfPastHuman.com proposed a third which we'll get to in a second); it's based on the idea that maximum average lifetime length is the ultimate limit.  It's when all the lessons of the recent economic past as conveniently wiped from living memory, as so the pathway is clear for repetition of the excesses that cause collapse.

A saeculum is "a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or the equivalent of the complete renewal of a human population."  While there are people around today that carry with them the lessons of living through the Great Depression, their numbers dwindle daily as the Grim Reaper harvests 24/7/365.  Evidence of how the 'living memory' is fading comes as I watch how my own kids now in their late 20's never ask my 92-year old mother about concepts like 'thrift'.  They live in a plastic world.

The third possible driver of the Longwave was identified by my friend Cliff yesterday when he asked  something to the effect "George, why do you insist on denominating everything in time or dollars?  Capitalism is denominated in souls.  It requires new participants all the time because lacking those, it is up against the edge of the Petri dish and that's its end.  The reason we're at the bursting point now is that once we have gotten Indians in the Amazon to cut down their rain forests for consumption by the capitalistic system, then you know the end is near.  Can you name a single large group of humans anywhere in the world who haven't been harnessed by runaway capitalism?  Heck, India, Indonesia, anywhere you look, globalism has pushed us out to the edge of the Big Dish."

Truth and Consequences

At the end of the discussion only a few things are clear. 

1. 1987 was not a big enough economic collapse to reset the debt accumulation/Debtberg sufficiently to reset the economic clock.  Thus, the Great Reset is still ahead of us.

2. Even as the denial of the existence of the inevitability of the Longwave comes into focus, the financial establishment will continue to deny excess and events like yesterday's coordinated Central Bank money infusions to save capital markets will likely fail from viewed from the historical perspective.  Runs on banks such as Northern Rock, and the truth of pension promises becoming undeliverable as recently occurred in Florida and as now happening in Japan by the millions, will continue to leak out.  Not that it will matter and teenagers going forward won't be able to save for retirement in any meaningful way, and given the dicey condition of some funds, maybe there's little point. Elaine and I bought a ranch because it is in a small way, an investment in owning the means of production.

3. Whether the specific timing of the Longwave collapse is a function of compound debt, the average number of folks around with a memory and ethics forced on them by the last Depression, or as Cliff figures, maybe we're just running out of souls to feed 'the machine' is a bit like arguing about the color of the train coming down the tracks and about the smack you flat.

As the market heads for a lower open, hope springs in financial circles that bailouts can happen forever, that interest has outgrown it's 'risk of complete loss' dimension, and that an economic Eden has dawned.

Count me skeptical.  The market today heads for a lower open.  From a Longwave perspective, as the Baby Boomers come up on retirement, unless there is an at least equal amount of new money going into the market to hold up share prices as Boomers (and their proxy funds) withdraw money, lower prices seem inevitable, unless inflation is ratcheted up to maintain the appearance of high share prices.  Certainly one way to do that would be to free up gobs of money to 'needy' investment firms and banks.  Which sort of sounds familiar, like $100 billion, does it not?  But that's only a firebreak says a UK paper.  Sadly, the facts would seem to line up that way.

Producer Prices - Inflation Looms

You're welcome to go read the whole PPI report here, but the short version is:

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 3.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This gain followed increases of 0.1 percent in October and 1.1 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices for intermediate goods moved up 3.7 percent after rising 0.1 percent in the prior month, while the crude goods index increased 8.7 percent following a 2.4-percent advance in October."

OK, maybe the Fed meeting had some insight into this key number:  The change in finished goods prices year-on-year unadjusted is 7.2%.  Now, assuming we haven't moved to financial Nirvana overnight, that translates to a 7.2% rate of inflation which is going to be passed on to guess who?  (Hold up a mirror and look in it for a hint, if you're not awake yet...)

And it's not going to stop.  Remember the PPI is the report where you "look up the pipe" to see what kind of price pressures are coming.  Finished goods is the end of the pipe that dumps into your local retailers.  The next step back is 'intermediate goods' which are up (unadjusted) 8.1% year on year. 

But the REAL PUCKER FACTOR is what's going on in Crude Goods:  Up 22.4% Year-on-Year unadjusted. 

As I have been telling you for how long?  Betting on price inflation in metals, energy, and commodities is as close to a no-brainer as I have seen.  This is not advice for you, it's what I've been actively planning on.  Oh, yeah - my wheat option was limit up yesterday. Did I mention up another 9 in the night session?

"Officials forecast US wheat stocks would shrink to their lowest level in 60 years, dropping from 312m bushels to 280m by the end of the 2007-08 crop year. "

Write Downs

Did I mention B of A is writing down $3 billion but expects to remain profitable?

Where My AMT Break?

Congress still twiddling.  But since they abdicated a while back, you're not supposed to be surprised.

Stormin'

Olga leaves 8 dead in the D.R.

Opera, Bill

Opera Software has filed an antitrust suit against those folks up in Redmond.

---

Speaking of MSFT - the new Vista SP-1 will have more than 300 hot fixes in it... No wonder I come into my office in the morning and my machine is already tired.

Arctic Marinas

Looks like ice-free summers by 2013.  But worse, think about what that will do to sea level... can you say 'global coastal event'?

Cultural Imperialism Department

Britain is demanding the Russians allow the British Council to resume operations in Russia.  Some traits just won't leave, will they?

Weird Science

Glow-in-the-dark cats.  Wonder what this does for their night vision?  OK, just at the gene level, but still...

----snip and save section ---

Coping:  Our Last on Fire Starting

We've had nearly 2-inches of rain here at the ranch in the past week, or so.  Without it, I'm sure the house would be gone with all of my testing of various fire-starting ideas.  Take this one:

Take an empty egg carton. Fill the holes with lint from dryer. Melt paraffin wax. Pour on lint to fill compartments. Once hard break into 12 GREAT Fire Starters.

Or this one:

"The Fresnel lenses you speak of are also available at JoAnne's Sewing and Craft centers in the sewing section, near the replacement needles.

Comes with its own slip cover, for about $8.00.

No Edmunds Scientific "risk factor*" either, (providing you don't find the stash of basswood and balsa wood in the back. Then there is the cardboard-backed styrofoam sheets for cobbling up prototypes, and the glass wares section with all sorts of bottles, and boxes and tubing and then there is the...)"

*The 'risk' is you won't stop at buying just the thing you were looking for - sort of like the danger of going overboard that accompanies trips to the Sharper Image...

"Here's a fire starter that works well, but is a bit bulky.

Pine Cone soaked in wax. Take a dry pine cone that has opened, and roll it around in a pot of melted wax. Fish it out, and set aside to dry. I've only used a match to light it up, but have started some good campfires with this. Also is a good project for Scouts."

And

Cheese doodles work nicely too for an emergency light source. As will Frito Lays and any other largish fried corn snack chip/nuggets.

Author and scientist Charles Pellegino mentions their use in caving. If you have time to read, pretty much *any* of his books is worth the time to enjoy. He has a lot to say about volcanoes, disasters, the Titanic and Time at a cosmic scale. "Ghosts of Vesuvius..." being a good all round summation of his ideas.

http://www.amazon.com/Ghosts-Vesuvius-Pompeii-Strange-Connections/dp/0060751002

More General Stuff

For the bookshelf:

"Hi George. A great book to study and keep in your survival kit is "How to Stay Alive in the Woods" by Bradford Angier. It has every technique you need to know to stay alive during a survival emergency: how to obtain water and wild foods, preventing scurvy, making fish traps, how to orient without a compass...just everything you have to know. And if you study it before-hand, you'll have at least some knowledge to draw on in the event of an emergency. "

Also this:

"Your reference library should have the FoxFire book collection.

If your not familiar with these books, the info contained is how the people of the southern Appalachian Mts. survived without electricity using basic hand tools during the early 20th century.

http://www.foxfire.org/thefoxfirebooks.aspx "

OK, now a serious bug-out question.  Let's assume that there's a lack of oil and gas and that you had to leave your home on nothing more than a mountain bike with a 50-lb pack on your back.

Your assignment is to 1) tell me what to put in this 'grab and go' pack, and 2) give me some idea how many miles a short distance recreational rider could expect to ride/walk over the course of a week. Send your comments to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

Around the Ranch: Texas Ham Radio Joke

OK, lighten up George Department:

"During a recent trip my wife and I were on we drove around the back woods of East Texas . On one back road I saw a sign in front of a broken down shanty style house: "Talking Dog for Sale ." Well I needed a break so I stopped to see what the deal was. I went into the backyard and see a nice looking Labrador retriever sitting there.

"You talk?" I ask.

"Yep," the Lab replies.

Well after I got over the shock of hearing a dog talk, I asked "So, what's your story?"

"Ah shucks there ain't much to tell. Is that a VUU screwdriver antenna on your truck out there?"

"How did you know that," I ask?

The Lab looks up and says, "Well, I'm a ham radio operator. I got my Ticket when I was a young pup and in no time at all I had my 5 band DXCC in Phone and CW.

The CIA heard about me and asked me to do some spy work for them. I would hang around the communications centers and with my keen hearing I could copy the transmissions. Because no one figured a dog would be eavesdropping, I was one of their most valuable spies for eight years." Copying high speed CW all day really tired me out and I knew I wasn't getting any younger.

So, I decided to settle down. I retired from the CIA (8 dog years is 56 CIA years) and joined a ham radio club. In fact I won fourth place in the 10GHz and Up contest two years in a row. Then I sired a mess of puppies and got away from Ham Radio for a while. I sure miss my radio. Why don't you buy me and I'll be your CW operator in the Texas QSO Party?

I said "let me see what I can do." I went back in and ask the owner what he wants for the dog.

"Ten dollars," the guy says.

"Ten dollars? This dog is amazing! Why on earth are you selling him so cheap?"

"Because he's a liar. He never did any of that stuff. He's just a No- Code Technician."

OK, it's somewhat out of date in that you can get a General Class ham license with no Morse Code, but it's a good joke to have in your kit as it can be adapted to most businesses.  Just send along a buck every time you tell it...

Wednesday December 12, 2007

After Close Update

Cartoon of the Day

Once again, a picture is worth a thousand words around here:

Here's the incontrovertible math.  Let's say that the recent all time high of the market was 14,280.  And let's say we really could buy a one point gain in the Dow for each $1 billion of 'such a deal" Central Banker swapping deals that could be tabled.  That means with today's close around Dow 13,474.79, we're just $805.2 billion in swaps and paper injections away from a new all-time high!  Hallelujah, brother, Good Times and just ahead!

Gives a whole new meaning to the "Closing Dow on a print basis" doesn't it?

---

But wait, seriously, folks, a colleague who worked with me on figuring that there is an 83.5 year absolute limit to how long banksters can compound debt from a crash low, sent me this (partiaslly redacted):

George,

Check out this link http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=162200 

This guy Dodge is the equivalent of your Fed Chairman, and was more open about the debt problem than your people at the FED. It does confirm your suspicions what you wrote today (Dec 12)on urbansurvival.

Reading between the lines, it confirms financial institutions around world got addicted to sub-prime loans and pushed debt to the max, so much so, if they pushed it any further, they would bust the bank! The French bank Paribas was the first to get this feeling and pulled the plug, with a German bank following. The debt is NOT local to the USA, it is world-wide!

Everyone is in the same boat, and because of that, everyone is jumping on the wagon for international trade integration in hopes of harmonizing financial and economic resources to save their bacon. All it is, is just a shameless effort to squeeze whatever equity is left out of the whole system. Unfortunately, if all this was done just to fix things, it would not be a bad idea! However, from what I've read, those things are being promoted just to keep the "game" going a bit longer until the next crisis hits, and the same tricks, "pulling another rabbit out the hat" will be the order of the day. Unfortunately, most of the rabbits have been exhausted and not many are left.

Still wonder what the K-Wave is about? Forget about all that crap that societal changes, technological innovations and so forth drive it! Its DEBT, just plain and simple as that. As you know I've started studying the K-wave right after the 1982 recession. I obtained and normalized what economic data I could get as far back as the 16th century and studied it. The K-wave showed up regularly at 55-60 year intervals. The last appearance was in 1929. Now you can't tell me that from the 16th century to 1929 there weren't enough changes in social patterns and tech innovations to modify that interval. However, the one constant in all of that was DEBT. The mechanism for creating it was basically the same during that period, so the K-wave essentially remained the same.

As you may recall in our previous discussions at the [University of ] Colorado [Longwave] Economics site, (Boy do I miss that site, even though there were some heated exchanges)especially with one fellow who was not in agreement with the idea the K-wave increased to some 70 years in duration.  He took a contrarian view and maintained it did not change and he knew why. In my analysis of 1989, the numbers showed, the K-Wave had increased at the time from a typical cycle to something like 70+ years. Also I had no idea how far the K-wave could be stretched. I knew there was a limit, because the K-wave being a debt wave, meant you got "something for nothing" and I've lived long enough to find out that things never did work that way.

[I also strenuously disagreed with the 54- year chap, and think 1987 is nothing compared to this evolving mess...- G]

Well today with a 99.9% certainty, I can say today's K-wave is 83 to 84 years in duration. This is not speculation and I have determined this mathematically in 1995. It is a hard number, and the process described is playing out today. Before 1929, there was no international integration of financial resources as is today, so maximum debt was limited. International integration ramped up the limit where today's debt can vastly exceed what previously could be achieved. Now, more debt can be accumulated over a longer period of time, as a result, a longer time before all accounts have to be settled, hence, a longer K-wave! Many people don't realize it, but depressions are the only time in history that we really get to see just what the true state of our economy is. The rest of the time, its just smoke and mirrors! Referring back to the Dodge article, you can see hints of another round coming up of new SIV's (Structured Investment Vehicles). Hell, why not go all the way and come up with a much flashier name to suit the times, "Financially Unlimited Commercial Kickbacks Euro Dominated!"

Alas!  Fine economic mind that the Chairman has, he probably missed our work on how the K wave can be 83.5 years (it's here, BTW)

The Kondratieff Long Wave is now demonstrably on the verge of crack-up and whether it's because of limitations imposed by compounding interest, or as I've argued, because of the impact of life extension such that a saeculum is now 80+ years, matters little, except some of us from the old longwaves.colarado.edu days in the mid-late 1900's can now say "We were right!  neener, neener, neer, and then we crash.

Unless we print a billion a point, in which case my commodity call for March oughta make me Weimar 2 Nuevo rich!

Special Update

Tension Rise with Russia

The British Council is being kicked out of Russia?  Not only that but Russia has walked out of the Conventional Forces in Europe talks?  OMG this is not good.  Think about WW III for a minute - may not need Iran to get it started after all...

$40-billion of 'Gas" to Fire Markets

Yup, just as I predicted earlier this morning, the Fed is preparing to pour whatever gasoline they can on the stock market to prevent a meltdown.  Central Banksters closed ranks to pull this one off::

"Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing measures designed to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets.

Federal Reserve Actions
Actions taken by the Federal Reserve include the establishment of a temporary Term Auction Facility (approved by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and the establishment of foreign exchange swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank (approved by the Federal Open Market Committee). 

Under the Term Auction Facility (TAF) program, the Federal Reserve will auction term funds to depository institutions against the wide variety of collateral that can be used to secure loans at the discount window.  All depository institutions that are judged to be in generally sound financial condition by their local Reserve Bank and that are eligible to borrow under the primary credit discount window program will be eligible to participate in TAF auctions.  All advances must be fully collateralized.  By allowing the Federal Reserve to inject term funds through a broader range of counterparties and against a broader range of collateral than open market operations, this facility could help promote the efficient dissemination of liquidity when the unsecured interbank markets are under stress.

Each TAF auction will be for a fixed amount, with the rate determined by the auction process (subject to a minimum bid rate).  The first TAF auction of $20 billion is scheduled for Monday, December 17, with settlement on Thursday, December 20; this auction will provide 28-day term funds, maturing Thursday, January 17, 2008.  The second auction of up to $20 billion is scheduled for Thursday, December 20, with settlement on Thursday, December 27; this auction will provide 35-day funds, maturing Thursday, January 31, 2008.  The third and fourth auctions will be held on January 14 and 28, with settlement on the following Thursdays.  The amounts of those auctions will be determined in January.  The Federal Reserve may conduct additional auctions in subsequent months, depending in part on evolving market conditions. 

Depositories will submit bids through their local Reserve Banks.  The minimum bid rate for the auctions will be established at the overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate corresponding to the maturity of the credit being auctioned.  The OIS rate is a measure of market participants’ expected average federal funds rate over the relevant term.  The minimum rate for the December 17 auction along with other auction details will be announced on Friday, December 14.  Noncompetitive tenders may be accepted beginning with the third auction.  The results of the first auction will be announced at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on December 19.  The schedule for releasing the results of later auctions will be determined subsequently.  Detailed terms of the auction and summary auction results will be available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm. 

Experience gained under this temporary program will be helpful in assessing the potential usefulness of augmenting the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy tools--open market operations and the primary credit facility--with a permanent facility for auctioning term discount window credit.  The Board anticipates that it would seek public comment on any proposal for a permanent term auction facility. 

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).  These arrangements will provide dollars in amounts of up to $20 billion and $4 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, for use in their jurisdictions.  The FOMC approved these swap lines for a period of up to six months."

Easy money = market rally (and don't go worrying about inflationary fallout down the road, y' hear?).  Just because an email tip about this from a former international money center banker to me had "Panic City..." in the subject line should not cause you worry...

Happy Bounce Day!

A fine morning it 'tis indeed - why the Dow futures when I peaked were up 76, and the S&P's were up better'n 12, and peace and harmony are breaking out all over.  Well, maybe not quite. Best enjoy it while we can...

First, let me bring up yesterday's chart, and you will see how a bounce of up 150 today would be a 50% retracement of yesterday's losses, yet would not make it back to our 'line in the sand' above which the market must rise or continue to face the prospect of imminent meltdown to the sub 10,000 level (on the Dow) because reality is still lurking out there, despite the rumors and hype to the contrary.  And what 'reality' is the People's Economist alluding to?

• Fannie and Freddie are bracing for additional losses, which I'd pencil at somewhere between $10-$15 billion for the pair.

• H&R Block's losses were bigger than expected

• US ad spending aimed at consumers is nearly flat for the year - never a good sign in the much touted 'consumer-driven' economy.

• China continues to drag its feet raising the Yuan, although it has come up a tad.

• But the real story is how China is slamming the brakes on lending, understanding better than our Fed/bankster cabal that money is created into being by lending activities.  Gee, how about that?  The US M-3 reconstructed rate (since the Fed decided that doesn't matter!!!) is pressing 18%.

• And oil has continued in the $90 range with folks like Boone Pickens saying that $100 (+?) oil is almost a certainty within 6-months.

Pickens' outlook is very interesting because if oil is about $90 today, and $100 really does show up as he's expecting within six months, that would mean oil prices going up at what annual rate?

(I'll give you a second to think about it...  Time's Up!!!  23.3%

Wait a minute.  Can that be right?  23.3% annualized?

Yessir, what Mr. Pickens has let onto is a coming 20-25% inflation of energy prices.  And whether that shows up because of a lack of additional resource production (supply restraints), or because of the continuing fall of the international purchasing power of the US dollar (bouncing a bit this morning), it makes our decision to hold gold and silver, along with a grain commodity call or two, about the easiest investment decisions I've ever made.  That and the ag land here in Texas, which has stubbornly gone up in value (nearly doubling now) while homes in big cities are being abandon ahead of sheriffs left and right.

Speaking of the sheriffs showing up, I notice that foreclosures in some parts of the country are u8p 31 percent compared with year ago levels (Milwaukee), up 29% compared with last year in Atlanta, and so the heartbreak goes...

Meantime, there's talk about bailout legislation on the Hill, but just that so far...and I can't argue with this morning's headline in the San Jose Merc: "Greenspan and his policies bear much blame in foreclosure crisis". 

The ugly question which isn't being asked by the LameStreamMedia is this:  "If everyone with a half brain knows that the foreclosure crisis was brought about by collusion between mortgage peddlers, appraisers, banksters, and mortgage bundler/bunglers, why isn't a grand jury indicting some of the crooks involved?"

Instead we'll just print up some more money...$12 billion in overnight repos coming up for renewal this morning?  Maybe we should just print up $15-$20 billion in overnights for today's session in order to ensure a solid bounce today?

Reader Feedback on Chart: "The chart in today's column reminds me of Wily Coyote when he runs off a cliff and then backpedals just before he goes down...hope that it will slope and not drop like a rock!"  Sure hope not...

As I said yesterday, although  the quarter point is nearly the decision I would have made, (no move at all) the Fed is nevertheless doing what it hopes will be best.  But that won't stop the sentiment on Wall Street:  People who make dumb-ass speculations should suffer.  It isn't about investing - it's about speculators, please keep that in mind. 

Around here, an investor is someone who puts money to work to build something, making some goods and services.  Making money on money for the sake of money, on the other hand, is speculation, whether it's derivatives, CDO's or CMO's.  That I'm hearing about problems *(via sources) that bundled credit card debt is having some jitters is even less surprising than sunrise occurring, or WaMu's problems continuing.

---

Oh, on your reading list says a Wall St. sr. exec buddy, should be the article over at Seeking Alpha "Why the commercial real estate market will obviously fall".

Imbalance of Trade

Latest Census report on the balance of trade is out...

"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total October exports of $141.7 billion and imports of $199.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $57.8 billion, $0.7 billion more than the $57.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $1.3 billion more than September exports of $140.4 billion. October imports were $2.0 billion more than September imports of $197.5 billion.

In October, the goods deficit increased $0.9 billion from September to $66.8 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion to $8.9 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.7 billion to $101.1 billion, and imports of goods increased $1.6 billion to $167.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $40.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $31.7 billion.

In October, the goods and services deficit was down $0.3 billion from October 2006. Exports were up $17.1 billion, or 13.7 percent, and imports were up $16.7 billion, or 9.2 percent.

Goods

The September to October change in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($1.3 billion) and other goods ($0.7 billion). Decreases occurred in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.5 billion); consumer goods ($0.4 billion); and industrial supplies and materials ($0.2 billion). Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines were virtually unchanged.

The September to October change in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.9 billion); consumer goods ($0.4 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in capital goods ($0.5 billion) and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Other goods were virtually unchanged.

The October 2006 to October 2007 change in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($3.7 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($3.5 billion); food, feeds, and beverages ($2.1 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion); consumer goods ($1.2 billion); and other goods ($0.5 billion).

The October 2006 to October 2007 change in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($7.9 billion); capital goods ($2.2 billion); consumer goods ($1.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.3 billion); food, feeds, and beverages ($0.5 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion)."

Pardon Us?

Flipping through the NY Times this morning, I notices that George Bush has granted 29 pardons.  Let me see what some of the crimes pardoned were: Hmmm...stealing government property, violating the Federal Election Campaign Act, receiving kickbacks in military procurement contracts...yeah, sends a fine message, don't you think?

"Alright, George, what would you suggest, then?"  I guess I would have called "Justice Denied" or the Association in Defense of the Wrongly Convicted and ask them for suggestions...

Buying The Future

Got an interesting email today from a reader who has been looking at how tax-exempt organizations around the world - funded by the very rich (and subsidized by you and me because they skate with no taxes) are working to change the future in ways that fit with the social agenda of their fat-wallet benefactors...

"Americans are abandoning their own sovereignty & funding the merger of America into a World Government. These are not "charities" as you would believe them to be, mind you. These are the builders of the new political, economic, and spiritual kingdom. Not only do we pay for our own destruction, but we subsidize the Destructors. Besides that, we're racing to get there! complete pdf file: A UNDP/ODS Background Paper. I have an inquiry submitted for the actual number of tax-exempts, but as I recall a year or so ago the number was now OVER ONE MILLION organizations on the taxpayer dole.

(a 2005 snapshot)

Not that all foundations are bad - not saying that.  BUT the key thing is there are a million organizations on the taxpayer dole and my buddy "The Charleston Voice" is no doubt asking (same as me)  if there's any more than you, me, and him paying taxes any more...

AMT Debate

Speaking of taxes and paying for everything, I notice that the AMT bill is headed for protracted debate because the hedge funds want to be exempted from AMT.  No, those are precisely the folks who should be paying, note middle/lower middle class working folks...

Honest Disclosures

Got a press release this morning from the Government Accountability Office and here's one to put into your calendar for this coming Monday:

"WASHINGTON (Dec. 12, 2007) - On Monday, December 17, the same day the annual financial report of the U.S. government is due to be released, David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States and head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO), will speak at the National Press Club as part of its newsmaker luncheon series. His remarks, entitled "A Call for Stewardship," outline the need for increased fiscal discipline and for greater attention to be placed on a number of large and growing sustainability challenges facing the United States.

GAO will also release a new report on December 17 that discusses various tools and techniques, such as key national indicators and fiscal future commissions, to help policymakers meet these challenges and capitalize on related opportunities. Mr. Walker will also address this report.

In light of the government's latest financial report and the GAO's new stewardship report, Walker will discuss the government's overall financial condition and the increasing fiscal burdens facing the nation. He will also discuss what needs to be done to turn things around.

The audience will include leaders from public, private and not-for-profit sectors as well as working journalists. NPR and C-SPAN are expected to air Walker's remarks. Lunch will be served at 12:30 p.m. in the ballroom, followed by Walker's speech and a question-and-answer session."

Walker is our kind of fellow - seems to be telling the truth in a city of deaf folks... I will put a link up to the report as soon as I get it next Monday. 

Chillin'

Our friends in Oklahoma: A million without power from he ice storms this week.  An email from a buddy at a local university up that way on Tuesday:

"Out at our place we were without power for a little over a day. The generator was a little hard to start, but we managed to have lights & keep the refrigerator going. Between the fireplace & the oven (my 10 y.o. daughter decided to make cookies on her "ice-day" yesterday) we managed to get the temperature up from 61 F to 64 F, even though the outside temperature hovered between 29 & 32 F. When it wasn't raining, I split more wood & she hauled wood to the front steps. We heated water on the stove-top so she could have a bath (in case there was school today).

230,000 residences without power in/around Tulsa (~3/4 of a million humans) 33-40% of everyone in the state has experienced utility disruptions MANY houses are told it will be 10 days to 2 weeks before the electricity is restored traffic lights are out through much of Tulsa impossible to drive 2 blocks without seeing tremendous loss of branches or snapped utility poles total rainfall locally was 2-4 inches with 1/2 to 2 inches of ice (we are south, so 3/8-1/2 inch of ice) NOAA/NWS site has posted "civil emergency" messages (haven't seen that before) 3 hospitals were without power tv news showed 5+ cars in line at each pump at gas stations yesterday

My daughter's school has never completely closed in ~24 years of operation, but they too are closed & without power. This has been called the worst utilities disaster in the history of Oklahoma (according to local utility & public officials). Had the water been all sleet it would have been around 1/2 foot of sleet & if all snow 20-30 inches (depending on how moist or dry, temperature & how it packed).

The school's generator has just flickered so I'm going to try to hit send before I lose this."

And this morning's update, same source:

"Lots of power flickers & East Central Electrical Co-op has lots of customers still in the dark, but our power is hanging in there for the moment. In the evening the water stopped flowing. A quick call & the message was that the pumping station that sucks up lake water for our rural water district has no electricity & it is unknown when we will get water back through the pipes. So, yes, having had a generator, a fair bit of gas, a fireplace and water stored up has been REALLY useful!

The daughter's school & the medical school still have no electricity today. After running in to check on the lab, I'll be back to keep working on the barn for my daughter's horses & the soon-to-be goats. Chilly, freezing drizzly & lots of mud, but I'll be able to get some post-hole digging & hopefully a bit of construction done with my unplanned for day off."

(Iced tree picture)

Feedback from Mexico

Here's a delightful email from Mexico City in response to my poll that showed 95.54% of UrbanSurvival readers think Iraq's borders are more secure than the US border with Mexico.  :

"George - you wrote: "Yet, the US has not chosen to exercise its powerful influence to improve things in Mexico."

God save us from the IMPROVERS! Why not start by IMPROVING everything in the USA? Why try improve us poor peons? Shucks, we're only AMATEURS at corruption, compared with the USA.

USA improved us by taking Texas away from Mexico. 1836

USA improved us later on, by taking over half its territory by right of MANIFEST DESTINY. 1847

USA improved us further, by subsidizing a revolution that went on for almost 20 years, because we had a - God forbid! - prosperous and rising country. 1910.

Isn't IMPROVING IRAQ enough? (AND Afghanistan?)."

Wordsmithing Your Bippity

A reader wondered if I knew about the source of 'bippity boppity boo when I used it the other day in a column: "I think I should tell you where bippity, boppity boo came from. It's Cinderella's Godmother's magic words. Turns pumpkins into coaches, etc."

Yeah, not only was I conscious of that, but I also checked the USA Patent and Trademark database to ensure I wouldn't get nailed by Disney for infringing on IP for using it... 

better safe than sued, I figure...

---- snip & save section ----

Coping: Fire Quest

I can't tell you how many people said "cotton balls and Vaseline" is the key to easy fire starting with a flint and steel:

"We take Vaseline and cotton balls or cotton batting (important that this be 100% cotton, no synthetics!), mix/knead Vaseline into the cotton, squeeze out excess. Store the saturated cotton in a container (even a small Ziploc will do) & keep along with flint & steel fire maker, or matches, etc. This lasts forever, and will start a fire even if its gotten wet! "

Magnifier, Too:

"It is along the lines of a magnifying glass for fire starter. It is a Fresnel lens about the size of a sheet of notebook paper. I got some from Edmund Scientific. They will start a fire in seconds, but it is recommended that you always have at least Some good sunglasses, if not welders goggles on, because the spot of hot is So intensely bright, it will be just like looking at the sun..."

Warning:  Do not go to the Edmund Scientific web site without adult supervision (This means, if you're a curious tinkerer like me, having your wife hold the credit card is a dandy idea).

Lint, Too?

"Just a thought for those of your readers who may be (like me) either too lazy, tired, or just plain shiftless to actually manufacture some charpaper or charcloth: Might I suggest taking the cleanings from the lint filter in your clothes dryer and putting them in a plastic baggie instead of the garbage can.

It makes the best tinder I have ever seen and I have been using it as a firestarter for the last quarter-century.

Cheap and easy.

And this also explains why so many houses burn down from a fire started in the dryer vent hose........"

Wonder if belly button lint would...oh skip that...

But, cotton balls & lint were the only fire starting idea folks send in - here's one from a fellow who sounds like Mr. Thermite:

"While this technique may not be old school, it really works for starting a fire especially if your surroundings are damp.

Required: 1- large piece of fine steel wool preferably dry. Keep it in a sealed plastic freezer bag. 1- 9 volt transistor radio battery.

Simply hold the steel wool in one hand a strike it with the terminals of the battery. You will have hot glowing steel wool. Blow on the steel wool to keep the fire going while you use the steel wool to ignite other combustibles such as paper. Then build up to wood shavings or other fuel.

Extinguish the steel wool and save it for the next time you need to start a fire."

If Mr. Thermite didn't get a smile out of you, either have more coffee or don't sleep through chemistry in the next lifetime...

Knowledge Preservation:

On key reference books to have on hand:

"I have all of the references you refer to here on my desk, as well as the T. J. Glover/ Richard Young “Handyman In-your-pocket”. When the computers are burnt up in a blast on EMP what will we do our calculations on? Have you bought a few good solar powered scientific calculators? (Like about a dozen and put them away for the future?) Even better is my collection of space-aged, space-race era analogue computers that automatically correct for significant figures (Slide Rules). I have a $10-bill in my pocket that is there for any slide rule that I see at any flea market, junk shop or yard sale.

And, after you pick up a used slip stick on eBay be sure and print off the primer from Wikipedia on how to use it.  

Say, did I ever mention that using a handheld calculator contributed to my dropping out of Seattle University back in ought 68 or so?  I was told I had to learn to use a slide rule like everyone else  to do those force/;vector/friction calcs in first year physics.  Being ast. chief engineer of a local radio station and the proud owner of an easy handheld calculator,  I rebelled and refused.  As usual, rebelling backfired, but being a slow learner and all, I have continued to cast off the chains of oppression wherever I sense them.

Except when it comes to income taxes.  I am not a complete fool...only close.

Send snip and save ideas to george@ure.net

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Ag Gato

Yes, I have started Tom, Tom, the Cat Outside on colloidal silver which I mixed up fresh and combine with some chicken soup to entice him into it.  Seems a bit perkier, but time will tell... thans for the many suggestions...

Tuesday December 22, 2007

Special Update

Fed Surprise: Moves 1/4 Point

The Fed's Open Market Committee met today and decided as follows:

Release Date: December 11, 2007

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent.

Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today’s action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.

The immediate Dow reaction?  Down...

Matters of Safety

There is a 'flow of the news' today which gets to the matter idea of 'safety' -so I'll offer that as the context of the day.

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There's an old sign that used to be spotted in many politician's offices at the state and county level around the country.  It proclaimed "No man is safe when the Legislature is in session."  Today, some 20-years later, the context has ,changed such that because of our societal focus on collecting paper (a strange one you'll have to admit) the real issue is what happens with the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee sits down to figure out where interest rates are going.

The best guess is that there will be a cut in rates, although like the Fed, most reports are a bit confused on whether a quarter point, or a half, would be just the right medicine for the economy.  The last time I looked, the market was priced between the two, which gets to the idea that no matter which way the decision goes, there will be some disappointed folks.

The most unscientific concept I could come up with for throwing a dart in advance was to look up the number of [foreclosure]  references on Google's news search engine, 17,262 versus the returns for [dollar exchange rate] -- at 17,519.  Close enough to an even split, so where I throw the dart doesn't matter a bit.

The two look-ups, however, give what I see as two dimensions to the Fed issue.  One is the external global monetary impacts.  "A Dollar Dump?  Not Likely" opined a recent piece in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  But more recently, and in spite of some so-far minor bounces, folks like CommodityOnline.com report that "Free fall of Dollar is not yet over".

As always, if consensus doesn't feel right, we'll tryh thinking for ourselves.  The main thought here is "Has the USA peddled gobs of paper debt overseas and effectively screw foreign investors?  Yep.  Have we unscrewed any/many of them?  Nope.  Ergo, the dollar has more downside to move.

On the other side, even though foreclosures will likely continue to increase through mid 2008 and maybe as late as into 2009, there are signs around the edges that the worst of the construction layoffs may be past.  A little note out of Canada says "...housing starts hold fimr" but then again, Canada is a more advanced country than ours in many ways, having natural resources in the ground as not spending as much on war-making.

What would I do as a Fed member?  I'd go for a quarter point drop now, and throw in just enough weasel-wording so that another drop could be foreseen at the next meeting "if conditions warrant" and with the idea that "inflation pressures must also be considered, and thus in the interest of economic stability..." or some such phrasing.  In reality TV terms, I'd hope to offer the screaming interest-rate-addicted investment bankers a toke on a doobie, not a nickel bag of smack, with the advice to "get your addiction under control and chill for a while." 

Of course, they cant: No way would a quarter point cut modify the drug-addicted behaviors of the banksters. They'll just jack up credit card rates another notch, laughing all the while how they have over the past 40-years been able to keep the old AFL-CIO efforts toward a 12% interest ceiling safely at bay.  No need to worry about organized labor - just marginalize or automate them out of the way and Bippity boppity boo, 33% interest rate credit cards without so much as a whimper.  What a banking lobby, huh?

What was it  Frédéric Bastiat said prior to 1850?

It is impossible to introduce into society a greater change and a greater evil than this: the conversion of the law into an instrument of plunder.  (What is Law?)

Which is what I believe Congress did when they ceded money-making powers to bankers who have but two interests at heart:  Their own and the most they can charge you.  Anything else is superfluous. 

My dart just landed on 50-basis points.

"Iraq Borders More Secure than Mexico" - US Readers

Yesterday, I posted the question of which borders are more secure:  The results have been coming in and here's where things are at the moment:

• Responses:

  • Iraq More Secure 145

  • Mexico More Secure  7

  • Total responses  152

  • Percent who believe Mexico more secure: 4.6%

  • Percent who believe Iraq more secure: 95.4%

Most readers who wrote notes with their votes said they were appalled by the lack of real border security, but in fairness, one on the 'Mexico is more secure' side of the polling noted that Mexican's coming to the US weren't coming to lob IED's at US citizens, they were coming for work and a better life.

Yet, the US has not chosen to exercise its powerful influence to improve things in Mexico.  The country still has a fairly long-standing tradition of patronage and payoffs to local government officials which the US corpgov overlooks in order to get cor54porate favorable cheap labor, at the expense of genuine social reform.  Which is why we see so many "assembled in Mexico" stickers on products while "Made in the U.S.A." is only a dim memory, unless you're buying jumbo jets.

Although a little progress (although damn little) has been made on a fence along the Mexican border with folks like Joe Lieberman asking DHS Secretary Chertoff to explain how an environmental impact statement could be waived in part Arizona, yet not waived in Texas. His positions reads anti-fence to me, but hiding between the 'green' meme.

Also on the fence issue today, I noticed that presidential wannbe Mike Huckabee is decidedly pro-fence, no amnesty, which judging by our poll, will certainly boost his Presidential aspirations.

The Markets and Personal Integrity

Speaking of "the runs" for the White House, and such, we get around to this matter of 'personal integrity' which has been bothering me a lot lately.  Where is it? 

I was shocked yesterday when CNBC's Jim Cramer talked about the pending bailouts of key financial services companies and said something to the effect that "Sometimes the truth doesn't matter..."  As I recall, at the time he was talking about the condition of MBIA's balance sheet, which was helped out Monday by a $1 billion dollar infusion of OPM (other people's money).

Cramer then offered that lots of times, he had invested with 'the truth' in mind and lost money as a result.  I can relate to that, having had my behind (and a new Lexus worth of losses) handed to me when the Fed and PPT have intervened in the markets.

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I can't speak for you, but I'm deeply disappointed with America's present lack of backbone to stand for what's true, rather than what's expedient.  Not just on Wall Street, although Cramer's inference that 'sometimes the truth doesn't matter' is a shocking insight into the nature of the Beast.  At what point does a PE of 50 (or however high) transcend from investor optimism to "out to find a greater fool' motivation, and thus crosses the line from integrity to 'screw the other guy' and 'I'll do what is expedient to make money'?

While the main financial story today seems to be about 'wating on the Fed' there are plenty of stories that should give the high integrity investor reason to be wary of these waters.  "H&R Block @Q Losses Soar' and  results delayed, and WaMu is planning a $2.5 billion preferred stock offering, cutting dividends, and cutting more jobs.

The favored talking heads of the Street offer us guidance like 'sometimes the truth doesn't matter' but that's advice coming from Wall Street's elite and their wallets, not from a day's work for a day's wages making tangible goods.  When finance left the funding of goods & services, and modest rent on money, and went to abstractions and interest rate absurdities, the importance of the truth left, as well. 

Go check your bank card statement for APR and tell me the truth you find there.  Believe me, it's obvious as hell: The truth still matters here on Main Street.

Heroine:

The woman security guard, Jeanne Assam, who may have saved as many as 100 lives in a church shooting last weekend, is at the completely opposite end of the spectrum from the story above.  Putting personal safety (and demonstrating the highest possible  integrity) on the line without thought. 

Cold and Dark

Much of the Midwest with over half a million homes - what's that, about a million people? - in the dark due to the Monday ice storms.  Barring a chance in winds, the present track heads toward Belize or the Cancun peninsula.

Olga

Caribbean is about to be churned up.

Algeria Shaken

Two suicide bombings in the capital of Alergia may have taken as many as 36 lives by first reports.  I know what you're thinking: Islamic fundamentalism on the move...

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Coping:  Another Must have Book

OK, Glover's Pocket Ref and Audels are good, but there's more, as one reader explains:

"This is not truly a response to/for your Snip-n-Save, but rather a thought prompted by your comments regarding the Pocket Ref.

I don't recall if you've even mentioned Machinery's Handbook and the accompanying Handbook Guide. If you don't have copies to go with your growing library of "self-reliant shop" books you might want to take a look at them. Somewhat expensive new, they are readily available on eBay, and like venues, at reasonable prices.

My 25th edition, printed in the mid-nineties, runs right at twenty-five hundred pages densely packed with data. The accompanying (and essential for me) Handbook Guide is one tenth the size, but does a darn good job of explaining how to use the Handbook.

Another very useful volume, How To Figure It by Darrell Huff, can often be acquired used very inexpensively. He does a masterful job of explaining in non-jargon terms how to figure almost anything; he even explains quadratic equations with not a formula in sight. (His "rule of thumb" kind of coverage, of wooden beams, gave us what we needed to confidently cross an old bridge, with a D6H on the lowboy.)"

Quest for Fire

Hi George. In addition to char cloth, flint and steel, I suggest keeping a magnifying lens in your fire starting kit. Free fire when the sun is shining (could that be how Prometheus stole fire from the gods?), and of course it never wears out, barring accidents, of course.

My ham radio friend who has the fire-making kit also has a compression fire starter and a number of other ways to start fires.  I went out after writing yesterday's column and built a small fire using the flint and charcloth - worked great.

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My same friend, by the way, reveals there's a simple way to make a vacuum packing system for food storage involving an old car air conditioning compressor.  You put a couple of hoses on it, a manual crank and then hook it up to suck air out of a coffee can with a  which has an inner tube over one end, and a pinhole with a piece of electrical tape on the other.  Place the can atop your plastic 1-gallon pickle jar being reclaimed for storage use (or similar), inner tube to the can lid.  Tighten the one gallon jar loosely then pump out the air by turning the crank on the AC pump.  As the air comes out of the coffee can, the air is also drawn out of the 1-gallon jar beneath it.  When the vacuum is good, just pop the tape off the pinhole on the coffee can, the air pressure sucks the one gallon lid on tight and on to the next sealing job.  Very interesting...

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Send snip & save story/comments/ideas to george@ure.net

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Wordsmithing Note

Elaine's word "suspise may catch on:

"SUSPISE?!?!

Man, I just love that word!

I'll be stealing that and using it rather frequently.

My compliments to Elaine."

OK, one idea here - and I don't know if it can be done or not, but with all the madness to patent intellectual property during the internet boom (and bust), why couldn't a person go about patenting new words?  Just a thought.  I figure if Elaine's word catches on, at a penny a use, it could make her rich!  Government seems anxious to tax almost everything else in life, so why not words?

Around the Ranch

A reader wants to know:

"Have you lost a ton of weight? I just caught your current pic. and comparing it to your pic. when you had just purchased your tractor, there seems to be a lot less of George."

I don't know if that's because of any weight loss, just hard work which does tend to redistribute pounds a bit.  And, maybe the first picture wasn't particularly flattering?  Or, maybe I sucked in the gut for the more recent one ;-)

FIP Info?

Word from our vet: Tom, Tom the Cat Outside is suffering from what's called FIP.  Feline infectious Peritonitis.  Not contagious to humans, but deadly to cats. Other than antibiotics, not much can be done, offers the vet.  Question:  Know of any alternative medicine treatments that might work?  Send them along, please.

Monday December 10, 2007

A Borderline Bet

Been a tough weekend, which I'll tell you about after we clear all the business points of the day, but the one thing that I awoke with after a grand night of full-color, THX, OmniMax kind of dreams was this burning question:

Which border is more secure?

• Iraq's border with Iran

• The USA border with Mexico

Me? I think Iraq's border is more secure, which ought to tell you gobs about the super-government/ non-elected North American governance vision underlying www.spp.gov  

But I haven't seen a comparison, so please vote, by clicking either of the following links (without changing the header line so my email router will do the counting for me) and I'll tell you later in the week what UrbanSurvival readers in general think.  Both of you.  

                   Iraq border is more secure                       Mexico border is more secure

Markets: Make or Break Week

As I explained to subscribers to my weekly 'inside' reports at www.peoplenomics.com, the market is at a chart congestion area - and we either punch through the white upper channel line this week, or I start making last minute plans to stock up for hard times just ahead..

Couldn't help but notice that gold is up a bit today and the Dollar down in the pre-open.  Still, I can't be the only guy with a view of history and a spreadsheet, so if you hear about big Fed interventions today, try to act surprised.  This is line in the sand week.

Futures pointing up on Fed meeting hype.  Yawn.

Consumer Prices come out on Friday.  Always good for a laugh (or a good cry if you're retired military or on Social Security and are confounded by the difference between what gubmint sez and what prices do ion the real word not jiggled by hedonic adjustments.  But heck, I have a Dual Core computer, so my productivity has to be double, too, right?)

Greasy Mess

Oh, and the price of oil has rolled down some, which to me says "The pending recession (anyone's guess how hard or soft the landing will be) is tending toward the harder outcome.  How so?  Well, oil prices are down and that's a supply and demand commodity as I figure things...

Of course on the flip side, China and Iran just signed a $2-billion oil deal, so the neocons will have to think up a new way to finagle us into a war expansion there.  Yeah, of course Iran would like nukes, but then I suspise* so would Turkey, Tanzania, and half the rest of the planet.  We only seem interested in the nuclear aspirants with oil resources.  Syria  has ambitions, too.  But, without an oil kicker, you'll notice no big flag waving democracy push in store for them...

(* 'suspise' is Elaine's wordsmithing for suspect + surmise )

Did I mention Iran's not doing oil deals in dollars any longer?

Gads! Gore's Green

Is it 'from the heart' or 'to the wallet'?  At 3,300 pounds a minute, his speechifying pencils to $6,701.97 a minute if you hit the currency convert at http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic, as I did.  Hand me a mic, would yah? 

Get Down Write Downs

As I've been repeating (almost daily) the subprime mess is still not over, and no, not even 25% of the way through it.  Want proof?  Look at the additional $10-billion that UBS announced they would be writing off.

Of course the real story. for us 'students of spin', is how as the SF Chronicle notes, "MORTGAGE MELTDOWN - Interest rare 'freeze' - the real story is fraud - Bankers pay lip service to families while scurrying to avert suits, prison..."  Why, that sounds like something I would write.  Quick: feign surprise.

Tax Planning

Don't forget to check your tax software for updates as the AMT creep may be put on hold. It may change your indenture slightly.

Wish I could Have Seen It

A huge landslide up in British Columbia sounds like the kind of thing the producers at the History Channel or TLC would have loved to have captured on film.  A massively big landslide due to the rains up that-a-way.

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Speaking of terra bites, check out the late season formation of what may turn into a tropical storm off Puerto Rico.

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Chillin' - most of the country's mid-section. 6 dead in ice not nice.

Time Pondering

With the delay until January of the launch of Atlantis due to a sensor issue, we're left wondering what this does to the temporal marker (trouble over the Atlantic/Atlantis) we were expecting in here.  Have to check with the time monks and get back to you on that one.

Gamy

Slot machines are getting a make-over that will require some user 'skill'.  Say, does this mean they won't be games of chance? 

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Coping:  Feed Chickens for FREE

Yeah, that word 'free' always gets my attention:

Greetings:

I've been on this for years and I've found Permaculture, or at least the tools of Permaculture most important in 'coping'. There is no reason not to have several dozen food bearing vines, trees. shrubs or bushes helping to feed your chickens. There is no reason not to eliminate all non-food/fuel/fiber producing plants from the landscape directly around your home. Using perennial food plants has the advantage of both bearing year after year with little or no help from you, and they are not easily spotted as probable food sources by raiders or thieves.

I suggest everyone take an introduction to Permaculture course from someone near their home, or at least in a similar USDA Garden Zone. You will here hype about Peak Oil (nonsense say my Calgarian expert friends), and Anthropogenic global warming etc. But the actual tools that these people can teach is amazing in some instances. How to get 4-10x the production from an otherwise unused chunk of land is a great thing to know. Finding plants becomes a lot of fun once you learn to use the Plants For a Future Database http://www.ibiblio.org/pfaf/D_search.html .

I live in Roberts creek, BC on the Sunshine Coast and have found plants that bear as chicken feed for most months out of the year. 1 'Illinois Everbearing' mulberry will produce enough dropped fruit to feed a dozen chickens for the time it's in fruit. It may not feed the birds year round, but for the purchase price of the tree you will save lots of money and if you combine it with several dozen other food producing plants will add to the amount you save.

The two very best plants to have on hand are amaranth and quinoa. Both cook way faster than rice and both are beloved by chickens! In the event of having to grow more of our own food stuffs, they are both weedy and easy to grow. Try taking your stored rice and growing it! But quinoa and amaranth are both drought resistant and far more nutritious than rice. The greens are also edible and delicious to the point where we stopped growing spinach in the summer. I can't say too much about kale either. Its a great food to let run wild as it will feed pigs, chickens, goats etc. As well as being great for humans.

I know it is difficult in the US to get a hold of the seeds unless you wildcraft them in some states, but cannabis seeds are a must to have on hand. I don't care if its wild hemp or the finest smoking pot. They both produce seeds with quasi-magical properties when it come to human health. A perfect balance of EFA's.  [not endorsing this, just passing on the info - GU]

When I used to keep chickens we'd buy 50lb sacks of hemp seed from our friends in the prairies and feed them to the chicks. The entire egg structure changed in a most delightful manner. The yolk changed to a denser, almost glowing gold and the whites were much firmer, I can only wonder what our wild bird population would be like if their was more hemp about. Between the seeds and kale and comfrey, we didn't spend anything on other foods. Of course, our chickens were free-range so they had access to other foods as well.

Anyhow, That's it for now. Love your site.

Awe, shucks, it ain't the site, it's the people who click here to send submissions to our Coping/ snip and save section that add value.

Char Cloth

OK, what's char cloth? A ham radio friend who carries a whole 'fire kit' showed me this weekend.

Sometimes called charpaper, you get something like an old Altoids can, cut patches of denim from an old pair of jeans, put a small pin hole in the top and throw it into a camp fire.  After a spell (this will take some practice) you pull it out and let it cool.

The charred jean fabric is called 'char cloth - and it lights very easily and then you put it in your grand and go bag with a steel-flint, and you've got fire to go.

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Around the Ranch:  Pole Building #3 Started

We already had two pole buildings on the property when we bought the place back in ought two.  One, the shop/office is about 40 X 40 and has a conventional roof, while a smaller storage only building is about 12 X 12 and has a slope roof in one direction, which we extended to cover 20 by 20 and that's where diesel and tractory kinds of things live.

Now, since the goats are going to have kids one of these days, I decided that it's about time to start building a a serious goat shelter/food storage building for them.  Selecting a site at the intersection of where three fields will come together when I get additional fencing in, I got the first few beams up this weekend using a combination of armstrong/strong-arming and Kubota:

Easy enough to do:  Simply put 4 (treated) poles into the ground (prevailing on your good neighbors with the 3-point auger on their tractor for a little mechanical assistance to avoid days of manual hole digging).  Then you scab some 2 by 4 sides on the poles so there's a U channel, and set a healthy beam on top. 

Christmas stocking stuffer:  I carry a copy of Glover's Pocket Ref with me almost everywhere.  If you have anyone on your shopping list that uses any larger hardware than a knife and fork, this is one of my ultimately cool (check the contents) things you MUST HAVE.  Time monks have several, too.  We don't just pull wood size decisions out of the air...we get them from span tables.

Similar is Audels "Mechanical Trades Pocket Manual"  This one is also indispensible.  It reveals little goodies like true versus apparent measurement and gear backlash - that kind of thing.  Glover's Pocket Ref is where I go for beam/span/loading kinds of issues which you should think about before building a building.

Next step (and I will get pictures one of these days) is to finish putting 2 by 8's perpendicular on top of the beam as rafters (9 of these will go on) and then 90 degrees to that you put down 2 by 4 laths and pop your sheet metal roof on top of that.

That will enclose about 15 X 15, and the last 5 feet or so on one end will then be enclosed with  siding and a vermin-proof door for storing many months of goat food.  If the goats keep up their ahem 'activity' we should get a crop of goats every six months or so,  until I get to the desired herd size, and from there it's into sales we go.  Along the way, the pure bred goats cost the same as generic brush goats, but bring more at market.

So that, and some server downtime on the Peoplenomics web site (a denial of serve attack) pretty much ate up my weekend...I can hardly wait for Elaine's Christmas present to get here: A 5 cubic foot concrete mixer - so we can put a concrete floor in some of this building.

Simple roof, concrete floor, siding, and a few solar powered lights, not to mention a strip of clear roofing down the middle to let in some daylight -  Is this living large, or what?

Don't yeah, tell OSHA that I used a chain saw on the (well stabilized) step ladder, they would probably have a fit and put me in some kind of farmer construction reform program.  Extreme caution was used (along with a laser level to get the tops of the posts 'dead-to-nuts' level and finger on kill switch at all times).  And no, don't try this at home, especially if you live in a city with a building department that will red flag anything that moves. 

If you do, remember our phrase that pays in MSH (*making sh*t happen) is this: "It's easier to ask forgiveness than permission."  Building permit?  Gee, what's that? We don't have 'em out here in the stocks.  Just one more reason to FLEE THE CITY!!!