Not Yet Merry

Here it is, Saturday morning, a light rain is falling and it's in the mid 50's.  We have one of the kids visiting, the livestock is health, the freezer full, no debts and the pre-year-end tax trial run says maybe I should buy a computer before the end of the year.  Health is good, teeth in fair shape, a little money in the bank and a better than 3-times return in the commodities portfolio.  Hell, I should be the happiest guy on earth, right?

The stock market seems to be trying to bounce, and although it hasn't made it past my "stop worrying if we get over this" line on my chart, the 200-point rally on Friday suggested that things are not entirely Grinchly down on the Street.  Despite the developing subprime/CDO crisis, the Fed has indicated that it will print money 'as long as necessary' to keep the wheels of lending greased.  So what if all the fractions in the fractional reserve banking system are in play?

What's got me bummed out as some macro tends that people are not yet seeing.  And even when they come into play, people hide their eyes and cower in fear because the kind of things I see coming in 2008 are not going to be pretty, despite the seasonal outburst of joy and P&L caroling.

First off, there is no "peace on earth".  Whenever I look at the headlines I'm reminded that the economy would already be in Depression were it not for the positive economic impacts (* in a balance sheet sense, not a moral one) of the wars in Iraq which has recently turned on the Kurds, Afghanistan although it should be noted that no surge is planned there (yet), and the list goes on there. And there's been a major bombing just this week in the only Islamic country with nuclear weapons, causing me to wonder how long before a radicalized regime will replace Musharraf?

But  that's not the real worry.  What scares me and trashes the holiday buzz is the near certainty that we will not be in similar economic conditions next year.  For one thing, the big fund which was planned to prop up the SIV victim/firm has been quietly scrapped.  While Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson no doubt has teams in the back room working on PowerPoints of the "next solution" over the holiday, I'm reading it as a "so the Fed will paper this one over" and that has both inflationary and deflationary implications.

The bottom line of my annual forecast at www.peoplenomics.com is that you will see inflation at quite high rates for the everyday things you need to live on, but your home's value is likely to continue falling so that on balance your net worth will likely suffer a big hit in 2008.

In the predictive linguistics work of www.halfpasthuman.com ($240 for a 6-7 week run, and $70 each run thereafter) the vision is af economic depression becoming widely discussed and into the MainStreamMedia by early October 2008.  The baseline data (Part Zero) of the current run that is just getting underway, indicates that based on language, the impacts will be akin to months and months of emotions running at levels only seenj rarely, such as the first few days after 9/11.

Sadly, the language-shift work is not the only place you can pick out the coming tsunami.  Linda Moulton Howe's Earthfiles report on trends for 2008, offers this outlook: "“In 2008, we’re going to see some major, giant financial firms fall as they get hit by an economic 9/11.”

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2008 will be the year the economy has to go through a horrific period of reconciling itself to the realities of cannibal capitalism hitting the edge of the 25,000 mile diameter Petri dish.

• The Wars will not be able to go on forever because they are not accomplishing the all of the requirements to be an economically 'successful' effort.  While they are doing a fine job of reducing the population of Iraq ( a credit to American Forces ability to 'kill people and break things') they have failed to take producing infrastructure off the table.  Thus, they are driving continued deficit spending while failing to cause long term rebuilding which is itself an economic driver and reason for war.  Just ask any Japanese or German about how WWII set the stage for monumental growth.  Iraq and Afghanistan can't go there.  So, the 'wars' are half effective at best.

• A second major factor to be faced in 2008 is that the consumer sector hyas passed the point of maximal new product adaptation.  What I mean by that is that there's not going to be a big surge of new cell phone adopters, no new surge of television big-screen buyers, and that has to scare the hell out of marketing departments.  I personally think Circuit City is a pretty well run operation.  Whenever I've gone into their stores, I find just about what I want, the staff is knowledgeable in the main and the products good.  But look at what they forecast this week: the biggest drop in five years and price-cutting along with lower sales.  I don't read that as an indictment of Circuit City - I read it as a leading indicator that the consumer is hitting saturation.  Without cheap refi's and super-low rates to allow home equity to be converted into SUV's and home electronics, what's to drive additional consumption?  A few pockets of high demand are left, and when they are as in the case of Nintendo's Wii, middlemen and resellers are quick to control sales to drive up prices. Scarcity drives price - and I expect that we will see that as a macro level with food prices in 2008. That trend is just getting underway.

• The revolution/rebellion meme (thought virus) will continue to grow in 2008.  We saw evidence of it this week with the riot lite in New Orleans over elitist plans to wiper out low income housing.  But we're also seeing it at a higher level, too, with Gov. Schwarzenegger of California pitting his state against the Feds over clear air standards.  "We can make ours tougher if we want," is the California argument.  But the Big Central Government crowd doesn't want that, and so it too, has become a flashpoint.

It's with events like this in mind, that we focus in this week's Peoplenomics report (which will be posted late Sunday) on the ultimate behind-the-scene drive: Huge paradigm shifts coming from the 'secrets revealed meme' at the highest level: "Bigger than moveable Type".

That said, I had to write "Something about Merry..."

"We Really Didn't Say That" Department

Southwestern Oklahoma State University banning the word "Christmas"?

--- snip & save section ---

Coping:  Seeking Satisfaction

Get a fresh cup of coffee - this is a little longer than usual this morning, but it's a holiday weekend, so what the hell, right?     I asked a really interesting question yesterday about what people do in Life to generate a lot of personal satisfaction and at the same time contributes to individual income or at least reduces your dependence on others for production.  In other words, what are your hobby/activities that are not 'consumerist'?

I posted a fair number of the responses, but not all - tons of crocheting/knits and such, and a few where I wasn't clear on how the activity moved from a consuming activity over to a producing activity.  Still, as you read them, you can get a sense of productive (non-consuming) things people do which produce a lot of 'satisfaction'

• My lambs.... the hard work of shepherding my 'hobby' flock of sheep pays off in lambing season and beyond. While they're little and cute I get to watch them frolic under the pear trees. Then in the fall, when they're not nearly so cute, after they've kept the pasture and blackberries trimmed and have fattened up on the dropped pears, its time to sell most of the crop, pick out some replacement animals, and plan some barbeques with the remainder. Then its time to start the cycle over again. Yeah, I put a lot of work into them, but I sure do get a lot of enjoyment back.

• I have a minor obsession with hunting scrap metal and selling it. I live in Brooklyn in what amounts to a post-industrial wasteland, but was reared in Montana. I can't help but to look at this hyper-urban landscape as an ecosystem and see the natural world latent under everything (behold the wild dogs I came across in Red Hook!). This has lead me to explore the detritus of the city and what I have come to consider as modern gold mining. I am always looking for things people throw away, and have made a modest amount of money on old furniture, bicycles, appliances, etc straight from the trash, but scrap metal has become a new past time for me. Not exactly sure why, but once you start to look at the world in terms of its raw materials and consider how it's manipulated in order to make daily life run....well, getting paid is just a bonus. It's a little silly, but I get a certain satisfaction coming across an old stove or a pile of piping in a dumpster. My latest triumph was scrapping this huge piece of exercise equipment made entirely of 1/2" tubed steel. Awesome. It's always hard work, and I'm often sore from the exercise, but I really enjoy it.

• Midwifery...  It would be very interesting to compare the cost of birth in hospitals to the cost of having a baby at home.

• George I make soap. You get to be Bill Nye the science guy and produce something you use every day. It's very easy to do and you know what's in it. I started because my dad has reactions to fragrance. So I make him a nice castille (very mild) with no fragrance or dyes. I make his laundry soap and shampoo also, fragrance free, no dyes. I like mine with a little smell in it and one batch lasts for months.

• Putting up firewood from my neighbors' trees (ie., they are having their trees cut down. I get the wood free, split it, age it and burn it. They are mystified about why I want so much wood--Not for long!)   Solar cooking with homemade solar cookers.

• Eating vegetables I planted and grew myself. -- They taste so much better too!

The seeds that sprout in my garden - always a miracle to me.

The first ripe tomato - never makes it to the house ;-)

The sound of the first pop after canning tomatoes (that means it sealed).

A full freezer of meat, berries and veggies.

• Knitting and Crochet, now terribly 'chic' activities for the trendy, can be incredibly consumptive activities -- you can spend upwards of $250.00 dollars for high end yarn for a sweater at one of the boutique yarn shops, $400.00 in lessons learning to knit, and a year of knitting to finally have something that won't fit the husband quite right.  On the other hand, you can pick up yarn, thread, and even old string at the thrift shop, a used book or web site on learning to crochet or knit and join a local group focusing on 'fiber arts' and enjoy the heck out of yourself and produce quality useful items and gifts for a song.

  I'm totally fascinated by taking a basic piece of string (twine, nylon line, or even twisted strips of plastic grocery bags) and with the help of a crochet hook, watching it dance into something completely different, something useful, something very whimsical, or even something very beautiful. Other people I know use knot tying (macramé), knitting needles, small hand looms, tatting shuttles, and braiding to make wonderful things.

  I've made everything from dish cloths and belts, dog collars and leashes from string and old thread, rugs from rope, rag strips, and nylon line, door mats and porch rugs from plastic bag strips, a watch strap from nylon fishing line, vests and hats and blankets from 'nicer' yarns, stuffed toys for kids, fancy lace collars from thread bought at the thrift shop. I have even made sparkly starched crochet snow flake ornaments for Christmas trees, that have been wonderfully received by just about everyone.

• I get immense satisfaction from knitting a hat, seater, socks or some other garment.

  I also get satisfaction from being able to play on song on the guitar.

  And I love to build things around the yard, I built a chicken coop out of scrap wood from a cabinetry shop.

• =Splitting and stacking all the wood needed to heat your home for the winter (total heating costs roughly $300.. << challenge to Peoplenomics subs to beat it

  =Setting up a simple solar panels/ battery to provide all lights for the long winter nights via 12V CFL's

  =Insulating/replacing doors and windows.... and watching the 'attainable' max temperature climb with each improvement

  =Removing junk and clearing back the long grass to have most of the village remark at how much better the place looks

  and most important =Moving to the middle of the woods in a run down old place to be mortgage free

  =Being able to say, "I might be wrong, about how bad things are going to get", but striving to be in a position where I can afford to be wrong, worse case scenario (if I really am nuts) is that I have a nice comfortable life in the woods. The people who think we're nuts... CAN'T AFFORD TO BE WRONG! That feels really good and makes the 'non-believers' pause.

  =Spending time learning and sharing with like minded people

• My “basic human activity” is growing my own food. It is really gratifying to start those seeds in the basement in February (I recommend seedsavers.org and heirloom varieties), transplant them after the last frost date (April 15 in these parts) and watch them grow to produce bountiful quantities of whatever it is. They taste good, I know what’s in them, and I know where they came from. And it’s a good way for kids (I have two) to learn where food comes from. Raised beds are where it’s at for growing tomatoes, peppers, eggplant and the like.

• Being a computer programmer by day (and night), I am very aware of how little of that will be around when the lights go out. Though I do find my day job satifying, two producing hobbies I find very satisfying are gardening (or, more specifically, harvesting) and home remodeling. There is something very satisfying about starting a plant from seed (either Heirloom, or as I'm working more toward, my own seed harvested from the previous crop) then growing it all the way to harvest. Working in the abstract all day, I also find home projects to be very rewarding where I can step back and see real, tangible results. And no, this is not just any excuse to use my battery powered tools! ;)

• I always walk when I play golf. Wait a minute, don't discount what I say. I've been associated with the game for the last 46 yrs. from caddy to pro. Americans, the most obese people on the planet, have almost completely removed the simple pleasure of walking from the game; as they roll gas guzzlers up to the clubhouse and then proceed to set their fat fannies on another gas/electric conveyance. Most disturbing are the young boys and girls (pre teen/teens) throwing their clubs on a golf cart never knowing the game as it was meant to be played. The perversion has become so extreme that these would be golfers now take individual carts instead of riding with a partner. When I've asked why the usual reply is, "we play faster". When I then ask why they want play faster I usually get a zombie like stare....I guess they've got to get back to their hyped up debt laden world. There are many courses now that require you to take a cart, good for the bottom line. Ask any pro if they would ride a cart in tournament play, 99% wouldn't think of it, knowing that walking is integral to the experience and enhances one's connection to the "outdoor" game. Where's the productive value? I'm in my late 50s but few people believe it thinking I'm much younger. Its one of the easiest most pleasurable ways to exercise there is; and no carbon footprint. The health benefits of walking a few miles a day are well documented. Americans removing walking from golf is a perfect metaphor for how disconnected from simple pleasures we've become, and at the expense of their own health.

• I've been brewing my own ales/lagers for the past eight years. I'm competitive, so I've entered and won many[37] awards at the local/regional level and also at the national level [8 or so]. However, competition aside, the brewing led to all-things-fermented. This includes making my own breads, pickeling, cheesemaking, wine, mead, vinegars, cider, etc. All qualify for the 'production' end of the equation yet they eventually get 'consumed'...very happily, I might add, especially the 'beer'. Beer production is probably as old a 'craft' as bread making[10,000 years ago], and not unlike your fire making, it really brings a direct connection with me to the very earliest roots of our ancient ancestors accomplishments. A proud 'tradition/lost art' which I am passing on to some younger men in their 20's. It is relatively easy to make high quality ale for about US$1/12oz bottle once the proper equipment is purchased. I grow my own hops as well. If there is a sure way to take a bite out of inflation, it is to learn how to ferment your own 'beer', if you enjoy this 'elixer'. The benefits of an unpasturized/unfiltered ale allows the vitamin B complex trace elements from the pure brewers yeast to enter your system. My fingernails no longer split and my brew partners hair, which was starting to thin, has started to grow back. Amazing! Prost and a Hoppy New Year!

• 1. Successfully keeping the predators away from 4 laying hens for a full year. Average of 3 very good, brown eggs per day, every day. 2. Picking enough wild blackberries in June of this year to make 2 fresh, very good blackberry cobblers to take to our Christmas dinners. 3. Growing 3 hops vines to harvest enough hops blooms for my home brew flavorings.

• My passion in life is totally dependent on electricity. I make videos. some ministry, some weddings and other types.

  We are meeting this morning with the director of "Children's advocacy", a group that helps abused children. The children come mostly from the police department.

  Our goal is to make a video that will tell the community what they do and how important they are to the abused children and the community. A local television station has agreed to air it.

  We will be doing a promotional video for a small town in Indiana, a ten minute infomercial for a national hearing aid company and will be in Branson to shoot "demo reels" for three shows next year. Life is good.

• I used to be a chef at a hunting ranch in S. TX and decided there should be something to do with deer antlers besides hanging them on a wall. I taught myself how to make beautiful earrings, necklaces & bracelets - just for myself - consumption. At some point I began experimenting with putting antler handles on all sorts of things: corkscrews, bottle openers, barbeque scewers, nutcrackers, etc. and lo and behold it turned itnto quite a little business! Now I am a producer, doing something I love to do, it gives me GREAT satisfaction. Each piece is like a small work of art and no two are alike. I have found it very interesting how this little project turned from consumption to production in a very short time.

• I fish Laguna Madre from my 12' Duroboat (made for the Puget Sound crabbers http://www.duroboat.com/  ) and 15 HP motor which uses very little gas or an average of $2 per outing. I catch an average of at least 2 pounds of fresh fillets per trip, which at $5/lb. in the store more than pays for gas and gear while giving me hours of exercise, sunshine, fresh air, and pleasure to go along with clear headed serenity.

  Even though my canal lot is small, I also planted 7 fruit trees six years ago which are finally producing good fruit yields--oranges, lemons. limes, grapefruit, figs, guavas, and a banana plant that hasn't produced yet. Nothing like walking outside and picking breakfast or a snack fresh and free.

• My top one is cutting my own firewood and using it to heat the house. We do not use the propane forced-air furnace at all. We live on 54 very steep acres in Southern California with plenty of available wood, mostly oak. There's at least enough for the next 5 years or so, but by then I'll be 70 and might not have the endurance to climb those slopes to get the wood any more. Anyway, to calculate the production vs consumption trade-off, I have to consider depreciation on the initial chainsaw purchase, fuel and mix expense, chainsaw parts and repair costs, gloves, etc., not to mention depreciation on the $100 dollar backpack frame I got from Cabelas which has a fold-down shelf that I need to carry out the cut firewood. I calculate that it costs me approximately $150 to bring in a cord of hardwood vs $350 to buy it and have it delivered. We burn a couple cords a year to heat the house during about 4 months of the year, but using propane instead of wood would cost about $300 per month. So I'm still on the production side, I think. But even if it was a wash, it would still be worth it just for the deep sense of personal satisfaction of doing it.

• The vegetable garden is the biggest one. We've made back our initial investment for trellises, fertilizer, seeds, dog fence, and mulch the first year. Should be in the black next years and on--less fertilizer since everything is composted from this year and put back into the garden the next, many seeds are saved, just the water and perhaps a truckload of mulch(which we can get for free sometimes) should be the recurring costs. Now, if you include the cost of labor--well, I do it in my spare time and its a joy to watch things grow; but it wouldn't be economical if it was taking presidence over a higher paying job. But even if it wasn't particularly efficient, if there was an emergency of some kind where food wasn't available then the garden becomes VERY economical!

  Rough estimate for the summer garden: Costs $320 for trellises, mulch, compost, fertilizer, seeds, water.
  Yield: Tomatoes 100 lbs $200 Okra 20 lbs $40 Corn 50 ears $15 Peppers 20 lbs $25 Basil 50 bunches $75 Cucumbers 25 lbs. $25 Squash, Melons 50 lbs $25 Total $405

• I'm not sure where this fits in, but I am a Celtic Harper. My small lever lap harp is very portable, and I can provide music for all kinds of situations -- have even been trained and certified to play for folks who are "in transition". Not only do I play in hospice and hospital settings, but also provide acoustic music for special events such as weddings, receptions, and wherever folks gather for camaraderie (sp?) and also just for fun -- and many times I am paid for my efforts. Just in passing, my very first gig's payment was a freshly baked loaf of bread, hot out of the oven. That gives new meaning to "putting bread on the table".

• OK. I ride a bicycle. Well, when the weather here in the New England area allows. This December has been tough because of the snowfall. I ride not because it saves me cash from using my truck to get to work or out for groceries, or as a commentary on the environment (cuts down on my “carbon footprint”), or it helps me keep in shape (it does), but at its core it make me feel better mentally. Heading to work I choose to take the longer routes as it allows me to view the surrounding country side. The lakes and hills and the neighborhoods which are silent during the early morning. I have always ridden a bike, from my youth and into this time of middle age. For me the maintenance of my “ride” is part of the mental health I derive from the activity. I don’t spend on the bike. If I see a bike being thrown away on the side of the road, I grab what I can from it. (I carry tools with me). Chains, cables, brake pads, whatever is usable. A little cleaning and lubrication and the device is ready to go. Does it keep me in the “producing” side of things? I like to think so. It does keep my wife happy as I’m not breaking into the budget to buy parts. It’s hard to explain the feeling I get from riding. All I can say is “I AM A BICYCLIST!”

• Accomplishment: Let me tell you making a good loaf of bread is that and more. You do not make bread by combining flour, water, yeast, salt, fat and sugar and get a edible product and that is with white flour. Home ground whole wheat is nothing but a brick in waiting. It takes LOTS of practice to make a good loaf of the Staff of Life. I did not make bread every day but it took me three years before I could make a good loaf of bread every time. I advise anyone who plans to make their own bread when store bread is not available had better start to learn now.

• I sew, spin, weave, dye (natural dyes and synthetic before I studied natural dyes, working 1 year for a dyer). I can take a fleece to a coat. I can felt (great for making shelters: ie yurts, or personal tents if need be) small projects, so I assume I could do a big one..)I can knit gloves and socks, hats, crochet some. I can spin rabbit hair, wool, silk, hemp, dog hair...I am not a perfect craftsperson, don't get me wrong, but I could cover a lot of behinds, so to speak. I can make patterns to some degree. You would not believe the depth of textile knowledge being recapitulated around the world right now, if that's not the collective unconscious at work I don't know what is; people are making socks and gloves/mittens like crazy, have learned how to make yurts out of felt from scratch, etc. You might find it interesting that one of the most popular knitting patterns is for fingerless gloves and in one version of the Hopi prophecies re weather going out of phase, there is mention of people planting corn in snow wearing hand coverings which don't cover fingers (forget where I found it about 10 years ago).

• 1) Woodworking - making my own jigs from left over scraps of wood always seems rewarding and I calculate them as not costing anything.

  2) Home Renovation - we purchased a house, remodeled it, and are renting it. We hired someone to lay the hardwood floor and bought new appliances. Everything else, we did. Next time, I'll lay the hardwood floor! Very rewarding, this lets you know that you can build a house.

• Chain sawing logs, splitting and stacking the result. Always feel rich when I have a years worth of firewood.

• As much as I detest stacking firewood, there’s nothing more satisfying than finishing off a 10-cord rack of wood (5 cords per year) just as the weather starts turning cool. I get more satisfaction looking at the smooth face of that stacked heat than anything I ever do at work.

  This really isn’t a productive activity, per se, but its one of the few tangible things I do that’s directly related to a basic human need.

• Sharpening and re-edging knives. A good knife should do 90% of the work, but unfortunately most knives in households only do about 10%. I find it satisfying knowing that I brought an old knife back to life and function by putting a new edge on it. I also find it somewhat meditative in the whole process.

Hopefully, somewhere in here, you can find something that makes for a worthwhile way to spend some extra (not working for someone else) time when you have it that will contribute something to your own well-being.

Mulching Cardboard

I got a ton of email on Friday from people who thought I was an environmental diaster for burning cardboard, here's a typical note:

George,

In today's column you wrote: "Every time I get a couple of cardboard boxes, I simply cut them up and dispatch them."

What the heck are you doing wasting a valuable resource like cardboard? :) This cardboard could be much more usefully put to work as sheet mulch around fruit trees (which would rather not compete with grass or weeds) or to build soil in new or existing veggie beds!

Winter is the best time to use it too. Just 1) mow down the weeds/grass 2) add some bloodmeal for nitrogen 3) wet with water 4) cover the area with your cardboard -- preferably unprinted, plain brown 5) wet cardboard well 6) cover with straw or wood chips.

The soil will come to life with beneficial microorganisms in no time!!!

Remember, treat waste as food for something else in your system. In nature, there is NO waste!

Happy Solstice,

Thanks - and same to all... The reason that I burn the cardboard is that unless it's labeled as recyclable, which most of it isn't, I'm concerned about the amount of dioxin that's going to get into the soil.  If you have any background on this, please let me know.  Especially any info on what happens to the dioxin/lead and heaven knows what else is in all that printing on cardboard.  Safe for the food chain?

Let Them East Crust

Ah, holidays.  Time for a little pie crust recipe from the time monks:

"2 Crust-er

2 cups flour 2/3 cup of room temperature shortening or butter 1 tsp salt approximately 1/2 cup of really damn cold water.

Put flour, shortening, and salt in bowl. Bash with wooden spoon until almost nano particles. Well and truly mixed.

then start with 1/4 cup of cold water and put into bowl, mix with spoon very lightly. Bear in mind once water is in contact with dough, the more you screw with it, the tougher it gets.

Put about a single crust's worth on flour dusted board, quickly with very few, strong strokes roll out. I take 4 or 5 good