Note: The Monday report will be about one hour late due to a long
conversation last night with a friend who is on 'between deployments' leave
from the military.... please check back.
Where Are the Bank Runs?
Although the mass of media hypnotized consumers will stumble into New Years
believing that the danger of bank runs is past, now that Northern Rock
and other institutions have been (temporarily bailed out), those darned
Danes at Saxo Bank have some rather grim predictions about what's ahead for
global financial markets in 2008.
Their view (which is remarkably close to mine) is that oil will go to $175
per barrel and Western consumers will have to stop living beyond their
means. Maybe it's the half of my ancestry that's Danish coming
through, but it seems a reasonable outlook.
---
With reports that gasoline prices are unusually high for December, the LA
Times headlines that California "State
may see $4 gasoline in '08".
Given the Saxo outlook, the LA Times headline writers are likely
understating the potential for gas price hikes. If I take present $3
gas and multiply by 1.8 (to get from where oil is now to where Saxo thinks
it's going), I come up with $5.40 gas, and even that may be on the low side,
depending on what happens to the dollar which I expect will get a serious
beat-down in Q1 - Q2` 08.
---
OK, so Congress has sent the White House a defense bill. Will it be
signed? Doesn't look that way,
because it
has a provision in it which would allow lawsuits seeking damages going all
the way back to the days of Saddam Hussein.
---
One of the interesting, at least interesting to me, points of the story is
that Iraq has $20-$30 billion in assets in US financial institutions.
Here's an inconvenient question: Where did the money come from?
My understanding of this is that a lot of it has come from you and me - the
taxpayers indirectly.
---
Speaking of which, I was having a conversation with my attorney yesterday
(year end tax planning questions, that kind of thing) and he made a very
astute observation. "With the exception of Goldman Sachs, I think
almost every financial institution in the country has received some kind of
foreign capital bailout..."
A fine point indeed. We then kibitzed a bit more and informally
concluded that without the most recent trillion dollars, or so, worth of
paper-hanging, which has amounted to little more than rearranging the deck
chairs on the Titanic and telling the orchestra to keep playing, that any
large demands on the financial institutions could trigger fresh fears of a
global financial meltdown. Bank runs could easily follow. And, as this
pocket veto seems to underscore, anything that could be a call on money
could put our country's wars and finances in grave danger.
---
Consequently, when I read stories like the one about the pocket veto of the
defense bill, I try to put it in the larger context of the present proximity
of financial collapse: "How would this news story relate to the
precarious position of financial institutions?" is a great question to ask
about everything crossing the wire from here forward.
So,where are the bank runs? Like the big shark in Jaws, they're
lurking out there just under the surface, just waiting. And I expect
within a month or two the question will be answered.
$100 Oil "Close"
One other note about energy prices: The headline in the Financial Times is
that "Oil
Sinks after $100 Flirtation." But, again, we have to look for the
real culprit. It wasn't that demand for oil jumped markedly on Friday,
it was that the purchasing power of the dollar was falling like a safe.
In fact, the dollar fell from about 0.6845 Euro at the open to about 0.6790
Euro at the close of foreign exchange trading. The Guardian noted in a
headline that the "Dollar
drops on housing data; worst week in a year". So, I give them a
gold star for reporting at least part of the picture.
Now let's do the math - realizing that the coffee has not fully kicked in
yet: The dollar drop vs. the Euro all by itself would move $94 oil to
nearly $95. And, it would move $827 gold to $833.
Now, in reality, oil and gold prices went a bit further than that, because
when traders see a swing, everyone rushes into their positions and you get
some overshoot.
Likely: It won't be overshoot got long. The International
Monetary Fund says the amount of foreign-exchange reserves in US dollars
fell to a record low in Q3 '07. If the central bankers are
fleeing, is there a hint in here about how we should allocate our own
holdings?
Kinda Obvious Department
With events in Pakistan this week, "U.S.
Fears Greater Turmoil in Region." Really?
The Desert Southeast
Don't look now, but
the
drought in the southeast is expected to continue into 2008.
Huntsville is almost 28-inches below normal rainfall for the year.
--
And then
we have the southern California drought, which don't tell anyone, but
that could start impacting agriculture there in a noticeable way.
---
All this is part and parcel of
global change which will impact food availability in 2008 (and beyond),
so if you haven't put up some long-term food stores, you just might want to
think about that as one of your New Years resolutions. Or, take up
gardening as a high-payoff hobby.
Good News About Democracy
While most folks see that the Bush wars are largely over oil (there are lots
of tin-horned dictators who could have been ousted, it's just Saddam had
oil...) I'm pleased to report that democracy is still flowering in a new
places without throwing depleted uranium around and locking up oil contracts
to get there.
Take for example
Nepal, which
is quietly transitioning from a centuries-old monarchy to a republic. Or
Hong Kong, which China says may be allowed to elect its own Chief Executive
in 2017. OK, 10-years may seem like a long time, but
remember we've been working on installing democracy in Iraq for five, and
we're not anywhere near done.....
The Runs
The decision by
Fox
News to exclude Ron Paul from an upcoming candidate forum, despite
showing higher in the polls than many, is getting a fair amount of
protest on the web and
letters to Fox.
And, I won't even dignify by naming the self-righteous LameStream
pundits who don't even include Paul in their so-called polls, which I judge
more a measure of corporate brainwashing succes than voter sentiment.
Not that they are exactly traitors to free speech; theirs is
protected by the First Amendment, too.
But, to some of us, it's just further evidence of how the corpmedia/corpgov
alliance trying to limit the breadth of discussion and genuine meaningful
choice available to voters to only those candidates anointed by sufficient
corporate influence not to rock the PTB's financial boat. I expect the
outrageous depth of the corporate control/influence/corruption though to
come more into focus before the end of Q2 '08.
Worth reading: "Would
Ron Paul be endorsed by the Founding Fathers? Lawyer says Yes".
Stormin'
Snow, cold, and lots of screwed up travel plans on Friday...And in
Georgia and Alabama, there's no real relief in sight yet, either.
Police Entrapment
Department
How far can cops go in their role as provocateurs in order to catching
poeople who otherwise might not do anything wrong?
A case in
Ohio raises some interesting questions about how far entrapment can go...
Chemical Sleep?
A new chemical is being tested which seems to mask the effects of sleep
deprivation.
Mrs.
Olson, look out!
--- snip & save section ---
Coping:
Preparing For???
A reader of this site, "Mountain Firkekeeper" sent along this dandy summary
about personal preparedness worth clipping and saving:
Preparing for ???
(Survival for 6 months or more if present
day supply and services are disrupted for whatever reason---human or
natural event)
First, if something bad happened that
essential services were disrupted for 6 months, life the way it was,
would not ever return. "Normal" would be redefined.
Second, no matter how much supplies you had
stockpiled in your castle guarded by a moat and attack dogs, even if you
had the weapons and abilities of Rambo, the starving masses are going to
get you someway or another if you try to stand alone or with your own
immediate family. The first thing I would do (and am doing) is to
develop a extended family/clan/neighborhood/village/tribe for mutual
support and protection. Even if it means sharing all that you have MOST
IMPORTANTLY your knowledge, with your tribe/village, you are creating a
life support system far stronger than attempting to stand alone.
Third, the essentials for survival are
MAINTAINING BODY TEMPERATURE (too hot or too cold will kill you faster
that starvation or dehydration), WATER and FOOD. Everything else is a
LUXURY in a survival situation. Of course, human companionship and
comfort items will add much to your personal and psychological well
being.
Maintaining Body Temperature:
Clothing, shelter and heating/cooling fit into this category. So, figure
out what is the most extreme weather that you may face and plan
accordingly. I've lived in a tipi at minus 40 F. so I can tell you that
an army surplus feather sleeping bag and another warm, willing body can
keep a person quite warm. Shelter can be anything from a piece of
canvas, a debris covered lean to or even a hole in the ground. If you
are trying to maintain your suburban house, close off rooms, live and
sleep in one room if you have to--depends on your resources and what
extremes of weather you face.
Water: It takes 1 gallon per person
per day for cooking and drinking--much more if it is extremely hot
and/or you are working extremely hard. Figure a minimum of 1
gallon/person/day for washing/dishes/clothes etc. Of course that daily
shower is out of the question---you'd have to relearn everything there
is to know about water management and reusing from one task to another
with the same water. A sweat lodge or homemade sauna is very useful in a
limited water use situation. It uses very little water and can keep your
skin clean and healthy. If you've ever had a boil on your skin, you know
how important it is to keep your pores open and your skin healthy.
It's impractical to think that you can store
6 months or more of potable water so knowing how to catch rainwater,
making a solar still, and filtering/boiling water is vital. In a
survival situation and you are extremely thirsty, you will use whatever
water is available, even scum covered ditch water. Natural contaminants
can be filtered out and/or killed with boiling---boiled water tastes
terrible so know what wild plants in your area can be used for herbal
teas. Artificial toxins pose a far greater threat in an urban
situation--in a worst case scenario, filter the toxic water thru
successive layers of sand and charcoal (from your campfire). Most toxins
will chemically bond with the charcoal and be removed from the water but
this is a last resort-survival situation.
Unless you have an abundant water source and
you are ambitious enough to carry lots of water, filling your flush
toilet every time it is used is impractical. You can use less water by
pouring it directly into the bowl. Even better would be to dig a hole
and build an outhouse. A chamber pot (5 gal. pail with a toilet seat &
tight fitting lid) with a few inches of water to keep things from
sticking--if the water is available-- works well during the night or in
bad weather.
Food: The basic survival foods that
can be stored for long periods of time are grains and beans and dried
greens. Everything else is a luxury---very enjoyable of course but not
essential to staying alive. Grains and beans each have different types
of amino acids which are the building blocks for proteins but together,
they compliment each other and provide all the amino acids necessary.
Grains, beans and dried greens can be kept
for years with little loss of nutrient value when stored in sealed
containers that protect them from moisture and vermin. Storing them in a
cool, dark place also extends their useful life.
You can grind your grains & beans with 2
rocks if you have to, but a hand powered grain grinder with metal plates
sure makes it easier--the grain grinder needs to be attached to a solid
workbench anchored to a wall---takes lots of muscle power and a table
will wiggle all over the place. Metal plates can can be clean after
grinding gummy beans etc. Stone plates are great for grinding grains
into a much finer flour but will gum up with some things. Hand ground
flour is still very coarse. Bread baked with hand ground flour will
probably feel more like a brick but is very filling--daaaaaaaaaa---packs
well in a back pack and keeps well!!
Grains: Wheat, rye, corn, millet,
oats, barley etc. (you can grind whole, unhusked oats and barley--very
coarse but very filling) if you fry it you have pancakes, boiled for hot
cereal, baked for bread (you can bake bread in a tin can over a wood
stove if you have to--or wrapped around a stick and toasted over an open
fire), sweetened with honey and baked for cake. Different grains, beans,
ground rose hips, alfalfa leaf powder, edible weed leaf powder, ground
weed seeds etc. can be added to your grain flour to improve its
nutrition and/or extend your limited supply.
Foraging and growing greens. Greens are
everything from edible herbs & weeds, wild foraged roots, fruits & nuts
to your backyard garden, berry patch and orchard. They all provide
essential vitamins, minerals etc. and just as important, a variety of
tastes to sustain your emotional well being as well. Just think how
scurvy cursed early explorers and sailors to get some idea how vital
'greens' are to maintaining your health!
Drying Greens. Almost any foods can be dried
and stored but drying greens are by far the easiest! I define greens as
herbs, edible weeds, alfalfa, therapeutic and medicinal teas and on and
on. Most greens can simply be cut, tied together in small bundles and
hung up in a shady, airy place to dry. You know that they are dry enough
when you can crunch the leaves up by hand. The dry leaves can be stored
in sealed jars----salvaged from your trash, washed and allowed to dry
completely! Dry leaves can be stored whole, crunched into pieces or
ground into powder depending on your planned uses.
Beans and Greens: These can be cooked
individually or mixed together for soups and stews. The basic difference
between a soup and a stew is the amount of water in the kettle. If you
have lots of hungry mouths and a limited amount of food, make a soup. If
you have a limited amount of meat, use it in the soup or stew. Don't
forget to boil the bones--crack them into pieces to get to the rich,
fatty marrow--- cool, pick the meat off and use the stock for a soup
base.
5 gallon pails of honey, 5 gallons or more
of cooking oil in small, sealed containers, kept in a cool, dark place,
5 to 50 lb. of sea salt--excellent source of trace minerals, baking
soda/baking powder and peanut butter were things that I bought even when
I lived a lifestyle that was over 80% food self-sufficient.
Invest in stainless steel and cast iron!!!
And hand tools--know how to use them. 2,3,4 & 5 gallon stainless kettles
are very useful from boiling water to processing garden produce to
picking wild edibles. A dutch oven is valuable for outdoor cooking. If
possible, invest in more than you need for trading and bartering.
Guns and ammo. These will be used
primarily for hunting and protection against varmints & predators. Self
protection maybe??!! but the best defense is a strong, mutually
supportive community. These tools can be incredibly dangerous and also
have incredibly complex legal limitations so KNOW THE LAWS!!! KNOW YOUR
WEAPONS AND THEIR SAFE HANDLING!!!! Something else to consider would be
to gain the knowledge and equipment to do your own reloading of your
ammunition. Black powder weapons would be something to consider for
extremely long (multi-generational) survival considerations.
Traps and snares. This is a category
of food producing gear that is often overlooked if not outright
disdained. Now I don't go out and trap those cute, furry. little
woodland creatures as part of my daily food supply; but I tell you, in a
survival situation, trapping and snaring would be one of the most
efficient means providing food, especially in the winter!!!!
The 110 conibear trap is probably one of the
most useful tools for survival food production. They are best used for
trapping squirrels and rabbits so they could be really useful in a
suburban survival situation as well as in a rural area. Wire snares can
also be extremely useful if you have the knowledge on how to use them.
It is YOUR responsibility to know and follow your state's game laws if
you plan to practice your 'survival' trapping skills!!!
http://www.buckshotscamp.com is one of the most useful
websites I've found for survival trapping supplies as well as home
produced 'how-to' videos.
Fishing, gill netting, spearing. Again, know
and follow all state game laws if you choose to practice these survival
skills. Obviously, in a serious "life and death" survival situation you
may be forced to take actions that keep you alive regardless of present
day laws.
A basic fishing kit, frog spears and a small
(usually illegal--use only for survival) gill net would be extremely
useful in a true survival situation---depending on your location!
Last Word on Generators
(Again)
A reader sent along some really great info on the question of the right way
to set up a generator and the hot neutral issue. I took the time to
read the IEEE paper (which has to do with stray ground currents and a
swimming pool - and it's a great read:
There are 2 big issues that the NEC has
failed to address regarding residential wiring.
The 1st is the failure to apply No-Ox to
bare copper wires at connection points. This is the standard practice in
all Telco central offices on power cables and ground cables.
Most homes burn down from this cause.
Oxidation of the bare copper.
My wife had a house trailer that almost
burned at the clothes dryer connection.
The 2nd is the neutral wiring that causes
stray currents. The neutral wire should be isolated from the ground but
this would require a huge costly retrofit that is deemed unacceptable
from a cost point of view and lets not talk about liability issues.
Definitely read the IEEE paper.
http://www.bassengineering.com/SV_Utility_.htm
http://www.mikeholt.com/documents/strayvoltage/pdf/NEC-NESC-Hazardous-to-HealthSwimming-3-3-99.pdf
Cheap Plinking
7.62 x 39? Cheap but limited quantities:
George you are always complaining about ammo
availability how about 1000 rounds for under $200?
http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=403789&pn=1
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end snip & save ---
Peoplenomics:
2008: Paradigms in
Collision
