Question Everything

Look for another fake virus warning in your email today.

When the US military trains its finest in the arts of 'escape and evasion' there's a concept which is ground into everyone's head on how to react if captured.  "Admits nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations."  Seems to also work well in the corporate world, from what I've seen, as a self-promotion strategy.

Key is the idea of causing one's enemy to question what they had thought to be real...hence, the importance of denying everything and instilling doubt.

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As we go through daily life, it's easy to suspend skepticism because being a continuous skeptic is a hell of a lot of work.  I see evidence of people being sloppy with their mental acuity all the time and it hit me again this morning as I went through the email only to received an urgent/dire warning about a supposed new virus making the sounds.  The email claimed that:

Please send it to everybody you know who has access to the Internet. You may receive an apparently harmless e-mail with a Power Point Presentation " Life is Beautiful" If you receive it DO NOT OPEN THE FILE UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, and Delete it immediately.

If you open this file, a message will appear on your screen saying: "It is too late now, your life is no longer beautiful." Subsequently you will LOSE EVERYTHING IN YOUR PC!

What made this virus scam so interesting was that it also included a claim to legitimacy designed to overcome skepticism:

"THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY SNOPES!"

Well, of course, it hasn't been and with 15 seconds of searching you can find the Snopes.com page which says nope, this Life Virus thing is a hoax, not true, and better: it's been around since 2002.

Besides prompting me to hit the "Reply All" button and sending back the question "Is the word gullible in the dictionary?" along with the above link, this provides and abject lesson in how easily soft-thinking can creep into people's lives.  The little "This has been confirmed by..." line in the email is likely what pushed the sender of the email into sending my way.

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As a long-time news reporter, it's been pretty well bred into my DNA that everything should be questioned, lest we succumb to a sort of waking stupor where clarity of thought drifts into a soft focus, and from there, the herd mentality takes over. Group-think reigns.

When that happens, we all too quickly forget that yes, Bill Clinton lied in office ("depends what you mean by" what?) and the current crop of 'leaders' has done as bad or worse arguably, with regard to their real Middle East Wars agenda.  In our waking-stupor state, we've become susceptible to suggestions which usually only serve the purposes of others. 

I just got several flyers in the mail this week urging me to run out and buy a new High Def TV so I could watch "The Big Game."  Like I should care about some sporting event next weekend.  My interest in the Super Bowl is limited to the time-expansion study of how the final two-minutes of a football game can be stretched into 20-minutes of NIST time.  And you thought time was a fixed unit?  Clearly, Einstein never applied his formulas to network sports programming.  He'd have given up - time is not what it seems.

Markets

Speaking of running out of time: Although the Dow closed down 171 - points on Friday, the good news is that the Dow actually gained a tiny bit this week: About 108 points worth.  Not enough to stem the layoff planning on the Street, but any port in a storm...

If you were really optimistic, you'd bet on a modest (if not semi-meteoric) rise of the markets into mid-summer.   After all, the economic stimulus plan is bound to make it through CONgress and over to the Decider's place in short order.  About in time to put a set of paddles on the chest of the dying service economy.

We'll just sit in our grains and softs commodity call options and see if the time machine works as well here as it has in our longer term silver and gold plays.  At the risk of sounding annoying, silver is up way more than a double since we mentioned the linguistics of in in April of 2005, a return of 2.36 times but it has dragged out to three years come April. 

Thanks to Ben & the Printers, I'm expecting to see silver over $50 and gold well over $2,000 long before April and maybe as early as my birthday in late February.

How Cool Is That?

Very damn cold in China.  Some much for global what?

Intrusive Government Department

A New Mexico lawmaker wants his state to tax TV's & video games as a way to fight childhood obesity.

But wait!  If they did a tax on video games, wouldn't that mean taxing our day trading platforms?  That's a video game, after all...

Purple Haze, Redux

A marijuana dispensing vending machine comes to L.A. reports CBS.  Hmmm...wonder if they'll put it next to a pop machine so folks can build bongs on the run...

Interoffice Mail

Ah, feedback from our Houston Bureau about yesterday's story:

"Seems whooping cough is back - big time in some places. Like Houston, just down the road a short piece from us... I've taken the precaution of isolating our Houston Bureau and issuing 86-proof breakfast shots. This is nothing to sneeze at..."

From the Houston Bureau Chief:  "I've been quarantined and ordered to get drunk...What a great boss! I feel like I work for Hunter S. Thompson!"

"Work?"  Who authorized the use of that word around here?

And Just for Fun

New Bush Administration Coins video.

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Coping: Food for Thought

Cheap eats ideas:

You asked for ideas on cheap meals. I like to look to other cultures that have traditions of "peasant food" that is cheap if you have the time to make it. I find it instructive to learn to think about food in a way that is different from our North American model. It basically involves learning to cook with ingredients that are cheap and available. It also involves using meat in interesting ways that still create great meals but use smaller quantities, such as mixing meat with rice or beans and wrapping it in cabbage or corn tortillas to make it go further. Some examples of dishes: Eastern Europeans: Cabbage rolls, pirogues, borscht East India: Curried rice and bean dishes, dal Mexico: Enchiladas or burritos, black bean soup Traditional America: Dishes to use leftovers such as Shepherd's pie, chicken pot pie, big pots of soup, casseroles, baked beans I still have a lot to learn about traditional cooking. Luckily there are excellent web sites for recipes.

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Why even eat store-bought noodles, when they're about as nutritious as library paste?

Cheap Noodles Worth Eating

4 eggs 1 teaspoon salt ~4 cups flour*

Beat eggs well with salt. Knead in as much flour as it takes to get a stiff dough. Knead well (good exercise!) Roll out on floured board until dough is as thin (or as thick; I like thick & chewy) as you like. Dust surface with flour and leave to dry partially. Roll up like a scroll. With a sharp knife, cut slices as wide as you like your noodles. Call in the kindergarteners and have them unroll the slices onto a screen or rack (I used to love this task when I was 5). Let dry completely. A gas oven with a pilot light works very nicely; if you put them in an electric stove on 200 deg. or so, you still might want to check that they don't toast.

*plain white flour will give you a more delicate flavor, and smoother noodles. Half-whole-wheat will give you much more nutrition, more robust taste, and grainier noodles. Toss in wheat germ, chia seeds, sesame seeds....

The thicker they are, the more boiling (in your yummy broth) they'll need. Mom used to feed a family of 5, with leftovers for Dad's & my lunch next day -- she stewed a chuck roast all day, and tossed these in at the end.

Cheap nutrition, exercise, and keeping kids occupied -- what's not to like?

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Okay, George. Here’s what we ate back in ’87 when we had about $7 per week to buy food (yeah, it went a bit farther, even then).

For the week, buy:

20 pounds of grade 2 potatoes, misshapen types (then, $2; now, $6?) 10 pound bag of cheapest white flour (then, 89 cents; now $3) 1 gallon cheapest solid shortening (then, 98 cents; now about $3) 5 pounds onions (then, $2; now probably $6) 1 pint sour cream (then 79 cents; now about $1.50) About 6 dozen eggs (then, free – we had free range hens; now about $14)

Scrub the potatoes. In a large bowl grate the potatoes. Peel and coarsely chop the onions and add to bowl. Add about 2-3 dozen lightly beaten eggs. Mix all together well. Now add enough flour to hold this together somewhat – maybe a pound or two. Add pepper to taste.

Now, heat a bunch of that cheap shortening in a heavy frying pan. Drop the potato mixture by handfuls into the oil and flatten slightly with a spatula. Fry until golden brown, turning so both sides are done. Put on clean newspaper to cool and degrease a little. Salt to taste and try to stop eating them! You can also top with the sour cream, catsup, mustard, BBQ sauce, apple sauce, or whatever you’ve got on hand that tastes good to you. Peanut butter works, too.

Fry up the whole batch, and you’ll have enough to fill up on, and enough to cover most other meals for the week. Store refrigerated. Now, you’ve still got about 8 pounds of flour and 3-4 dozen eggs left.

Make six one pound loaves of bread: water (add sour cream for flavor), flour, a little melted shortening, couple tablespoons of salt. Mix well. If you have some yeast, throw in a couple tablespoons. If you have no yeast, make up a small batch of starter in advance – use a cup of flour and cup of water, leave lightly covered for a day or two until it starts to bubble and smell tangy – and add that to the mix. Let rise, beat down and rise again, then bake. Now, you’ve got a lot of fresh bread.

Fry eggs for egg sandwiches. Or hard-boil and make egg ‘n onion salad (eggs, onions, sourcream), and have with toast. Or scramble and serve open face over a slice of bread, topped with fried onions. If the bread dries out, cube it and fry in the shortening for "snack croutons".

Anyway, you get the idea. Yes, I know, it’s not “healthy” in the conventional sense. But, I can assure you, when you have to choose between “starving” or “eating whatever is available”, you’ll choose the latter. And like it.

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Morning,

I have two recipes that I make on a fairly regular basis. We have two teenagers and they get full from these. On some of these measurements I am guessing as I was taught to cook by my granma. We didn't measure stuff out so much as you knew how much to put in. Back in those days there were no store bought veggies either. It was all canned from our garden which is what I am going back to. But here are the recipes.

Poor Man's Stew 1 pound of hamburger 1 onion, chopped 2 cans mixed vegetables 1 can peas 1 can green beans 1 can corn 1 can of diced tomatoes 2 teaspoons barley 1 teaspoon salt 2 teaspoons pepper 1 teaspoon oregano 2 teaspoons basil Option Can of mushrooms

Brown the hamburger. Throw everything into a pot and cook on medium heat for 30 minutes. This usually feeds us two meals plus packing in for lunches. We buy our canned goods from Aldi so we are looking at .39 a can. A can of mushrooms is usually .49 Oregano and basil can easily be grown in a window box though currently I have bought from Sam's Club. This meal costs us just under $5 as we buy the grass fed beef. We buy from a friend who specializes in this so we buy half a beef at a time. Big chunk of change at one throw but over the several months it feeds us, the grocery bill is a lot less.

Mac n Cheese w/Hamburger 2 boxes of Mac n Cheese (Off brand is fine) 1 pound of hamburger 1 onion sliced Pepper to taste Brown hamberger and onion. Make mac n cheese as directed. Add the hamburger and onion to the made mac n cheese. It is a quick meal that fills the kids. The biggest cost to this one is the hamburger. Before beef became pricey, this was a $2 meal.

One another note. Last month you asked about things people do to relax and be productive. When I emailed crochet, I had not even thought about the expensive yarns as I rarely buy those and then only on the clearance shelf. Around this area we have freecycle list. I had a lady give me all of her scrap yarn that she no longer had time for. I have several patterns for patchwork afghans. It looks like I may be able to make 10 afghans off of what she gave me. Most of the scrap yarns are amounts that people throw away. These afghans will go to those who need them as the heating bills are definitely up around here as everywhere.

One more note on prices. We buy 5 poulds of extra sharp cheddar cheese at Sam's Club. In the past (within the last six months) it was $8.84 a block. I went to Sam's two weeks ago and the same block is now $14.84. We are seeing more empty shelves now especially in the same town grocery store we shop at. But again I know this is going on all over.

Thanks again for putting up the info on your site. I also subscribe to Peoplenomics which is very good.

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Surprisingly good!

Spicy Hominy burritos:

One can of hominy, one can of black beans, one can of cilantro/lime Rotel (strain off juice). Heat in sauce pan. Fill tortillas. Add a little shredded cheddar (if it's in the budget).

Cost (sans cheese)- less than $3. Makes about 6 burritos.

Send snip & save ideas (noi more recipes!  (Enough!)  to george@ure.net

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Around the Ranch:  Smoke Day

Around 8:30 last night I finally finished up the rebuilding of the SB-221 linear amp.  This morning, after this update is posted, I will engage in one of the most delightful moments of ham radio - right up there working working some exotic location halfway around the world.  I'll be doing the "let the smoke out" test.

The idea is that if you've done a good job of putting a piece of equipment together, it will work as it should.  On the other hand, and especially when playing around with a reasonably powerful piece of equipment (*with the same 'talk power' as a 5 KW AM broadcast station), any little goof here, or there, and you not only can get smoke, but even a chance of fire if you're not careful.  Which is why I gravitate toward flameproof resistors in high voltage power supplies, and such.

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Regardless of how that goes, there's only two hours in the schedule for play until nightfall.  There's more paneling to go in at the goat barn, plus I promised myself I'd put in at least one of the solar-powered lights today.

As soon as that's done, I'll be firing up the tractor and stretching out some portion of the 1,000 feet of goat fence needed to finish off a second large pasture.  And, if I get that done, I'll hang the gate for that field.  Not to whine, but just to finish the perimeter off is 6,200 feet of fencing - and you can about double that by the time the cross fencing gets done.  Ever put in a mile of fencing, let alone 3?

Peoplenomics this weekend takes on low-cost reform of higher education - which should be interesting; focusing on "If information gets cheaper, why is education getting more expensive?"  There are alternatives, and we'll get into those...

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E and I have been kicking around the idea of a large greenhouse, this being a snaky/buggy part of Texas and all: One idea is to take the current 30' X 50' garden (*surrounded by the chicken moat) and enclose that with PVC and 6-mil sheeting, burying the sides under 6" of dirt to keep out whatevers.  The other option is to put in a new pole building (darn cheap to build) and make something a little less grandiose, say 16 by 24. Ponderings on that continue.

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As always, there's never enough time, but like the old farmerly saying goes, plenty of time for that when we get planted six feet under. Today's adventure boils down to which will I smell more of: electronic component smoke, or Kubota diesel smoke?

Friday January 25, 2007

Friday's Simple Bet

Most mornings I wake up with something bugging me - a sort of writer's hangnail about some aspect of the economy.  Thanks to a good night of sleep - particularly restful for some reason - I awoke this morning with a mind clear of gripes.  Maybe, last night's 2-hour appearance of the Steve Quayle show was somehow therapeutic  The show notes are on the www.peoplenomics.com web site as both a PowerPoint and a .PDF. and Steve might put the whole interview up as a free download later today, but not sure on that so go check his site this afternoon.

In fact, about the only thing that is on my mind this morning is the relatively 'safe' bet that a day trader could make today - and that is that the market will likely rally at the open, building on the previous two days of gains.  Where does it go?  Well, remember the old low which I talked about as being the key level the bears would need to see in order to proclaim even the faintest chance of the market returning to sober valuation levels was 12,743.  Today, I expect the market to be almost 'magically' pulled back up to that level.

It's around 12,743 though, that I expect to see things get interesting:  When a market takes out a key support level like 12,743, and goes lower, you'll often see 'congestion' or 'overhead resistance' as a newly reenergized market tries to rally higher.

When I look at historical closing levels of the Dow, I notice that last Friday was 12,099.30, so really anything above that at closing this afternoon and Bulls will be able to claim "The bottom is in!  Good times are just ahead!  Every back into equities, quick!"  Gag me.

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I'll be skeptical for a while, thanks.  And, in any event, our dollars (both of them) are in commodity call options, which seem to offer way more upside potential that the returns offered on the street: single digit percentage gains for all the exposure don't turn my crank so much as triple and quadruple digit potential of the commodities.

Say, did I mention that gold is a commodity?

A couple of things to watch on gold (which I expect to cross the $1,000 barrier in February:  First, there's a power crisis interfering with production in South Africa - and it will spill into platinum mining as well.  Second, with a sucky economy and the Fed printing money (*or more correctly, letting banks borrow and interest rates around what inflation is running; e.g. free money rates), just what the hell did you expect?

Meantime, in what might be considered good news for small commodity players, some of the major bank trading desks are being scaled back.  Example: BofA is closing it's commods desk in London.  Ya'll just go on home and leave the money for us little guys, thanks.

Next Hands Out

The mortgage bond insurers have their hands out for $200-billion.  Hell, it's only money - print whatever they need... Is everyone on crack & I missed the dealer?  Not only are we guaranteeing that inefficient excesses are rewards, but now we're about to guarantee the ratings of the guys who over-extended?  Where my bottle of Jack?

Dragon and Sea Monster

Here's a good way to look at it - from a reader:

"Hi George,

I'm going to call this the dragon versus the sea-monster: Who wins is anyone's guess.

One of my fears manifested today. To make a long story short, the combination of The Fed's panic move lowering administered rates and the governments fiscal stimulus package have caused the Bond market to revolt. The sea monster (government) wants to hyper-inflate, but clearly the Bond Market (dragon) has something to say about that. In the meantime, the economy (Tumbleweed) stands in the middle of the nasties doing battle. Allow me to understate things by saying I see no silver lining here."

There might be a golden lining, however...LOL

$10-Billion Boner

And we get what?  An apology from Societe Generale - which claims to have fallen victim to the biggest trading fraud scheme ever blamed on a single trader.  But, I'd have to ask "With all the checks and balances that are supposedly in place to prevent exactly this kind of thing, is that a credible answer?"  It may be - Perhaps the people in French banking didn't read about Barings collapse in 1995, assumed that such a thing couldn't happen to a French bank (merci!), or there's a lot more to the story yet to surface.  I'd bet on this latter, but I've been wrong before.

Late for the Party

Although globalism seems to have run its course, at least insofar as decimating jobs like customer service call centers in the US,  a discerning reader might  note that the president of France is suggesting that his country will be able to double trade with India by 2012.

Say, maybe France really does run 15-years behind the rest of the world - I guess that would explain a few things...like wanting to sell more nuclear technology.  Oui.

Powers That Be Meeting

Yes, you can read about the World Economic Summit in Davos, but the annual meetings of the world's super-rich are way above your pay grade & mine.  They'll just do what they have mapped out for us...

Artificial Life

The supposed-to-be catchy headline is "US scientists close to creating artificial life: study". 

Hmmm.  Let me see: A fractional reserve banking system without reserves, 300-channels of digital wasteland and Second Life.  You sure that ship hasn't sailed?

Energies from Space

That's a hot meme that is certainly getting its fair share of play in the MainStream/LameStream - and right on schedule, we notice:

• The Stephenville, Texas UFO sighting is now being explains away as military jets.  Going 40 miles an hour, executing a turn with one edge not moving?  Did someone put a Robertson STOL kit on the F-16's and hush kits to boot?  LOL, I love explanations like this!

• Next, we're told that what looks like a female figure on Mars is really a 2" high rock.

• And relax about next Tuesday - that TU-24 asteroid will miss earth next week by 540,000 kilometers.  However, if you're into conspiracy theory, that might be close enough to "333-thousand" miles to mean something occult...

While the boards are abuzz with how all this may set off huge earthquakes and tsunamis on earth, about the biggest 'effect at a distance' will likely be an increase in doombuzz on the 'net.  Well, you can relax.  Things don't get super ugly until the October 2008 economic meltdown which will go into the history books as the Bush Bust.  But, go on and worry, if you must.

Back to the Trough

As expected (*I think I mentioned this a while back, or maybe it was in a recent Peoplenomics.com report) Paul Wolfowitz is returning to US government work, after resigning under pressure from the World Bank over promoting his girlfriend.  He'll be Chairman of the Secretary of State's International Security Advisory Board.

HR geniuses in State and the White House...

Coughs

Seems whooping cough is back - big time in some places. Like Houston, just down the road a short piece from us... I've taken the precaution of isolating our Houston Bureau and issuing 86-proof breakfast shots.  This is nothing to sneeze at...

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Coping: Cheap Eats Week Wraps Up

One reader doesn't like the recipes around here, designed to help a family stretch from one pay day to the next.  "Have I stumbled in the Crash/Food/& Win channel?"

OK, tell you what: I'm trying to slot some time this weekend to collect all the snip & save's, \so just one recipe today - but more tomorrow:

"BUSH DEPRESSION SOUP (Family loves it!)

SIMPLE AND FAST

1 lb. ground beef 1 can diced tomatoes 2 cups canned or frozen mixed vegetables 1 QT (32 oz) Beef Broth 1/2 cup uncooked elbow macaroni

Cook beef, stir in tomatoes, broth, and vegetables. Bring to boil; then add macaroni. Reduce heat; cover and simmer for 8-10 minutes or until macaroni is done. Add salt and pepper as desired. Serve with Bread."

(I'd throw in some cabbage or bok choy, myself...) 

Send snip & save ideas to george@ure.net.  Anything that will help people do more with less is fair game.

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Around the Ranch:  Thanks!

I don't know where all the readers have come from, but this site has set new traffic records this week.  Thanks for telling your friends - and keep up the good work.  We may be down on stock trade, but we remain high in spirits and belief in the American ideals.  44-thousand page views in one day isn't a bad mark.

Thursday January 24, 2008

Which Way Now?  Inflation Versus Deflation

OK, in case you missed it, the stock market collapsed earlier this week, but yesterday managed to zoom to a very impressive 300-point gain after touching technical targets.  And, it looks like a higher open will be coming later this morning.

Does that mean the Fed is a bunch of geniuses for their 3/4-point rate drop on Tuesday morning before the open?  Maybe not.  A reader in Europe offers the notion that the Fed just spent a lot of money it didn't have to:

"If people believe that uncle Ben's subsidies will revive the economy (I wish them well) then its the transports that go first. They also went first in July and bottomed first in 01 on the downside as well as topped already in May 99!. But take a look at the bank index (XLF) that went up by 7.37% straight out of to hole. That would be an even better candidate to push if I am the FED, to make believe all is well in Lake Woebegone. It's just the way the cookie crumbles.

But what it really is are the charts, all major indices had reached their targets within 99.5% of target. I think I sent you the dow ahead of time. If you still have it, take a look. Even the FED wasted their money cause it would have stopped anyway, but they don't know better and they are full of fear to be blamed for the recession or worse, so they pour money at it and hope it will go away.

If the FED's really were in control, would you think that the mkts would have gone down 38, 50 and 70% respectively in 2000/2...I bet ya, they would have tried to stop it. In fact, when Ali was finished with his zero real rates, so was the market rout."

In the end, I suppose it doesn't matter too much whether there was a little arb'ing being done by the PPT, or whether it was just markets putting in a low (conveniently: right on the eve of the January 24th turn date forecast by the linguistics work of HalfPastHuman, by-the-by) before going into a one-last-shot run-up only to collapse this coming fall in the first week or so of October.

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So, what we have now is a rally and gold popping back up over $900 spot (again, just as the linguistics forecast) such that by the end of February, nothing would surprise me less than 'thousand dollar [plus] gold'.  Oh, the exuberance also means that a) oil will likely head back up and b) commodities ought to be screaming upward over the next few months.

Sure, that will mean inflation, but that's what happens when the US rate fall too fast, too furious, as it were.  An AFX/Forbes headline this morning says "Gold up on safe-haven buying, amind talk of new Fed rate cut" which then goes on to say how another 50-basis point (1/2 percent) drop is possible on the 30th.

Think we're next going to try funding global carry trades? LOL...

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Does that mean it's all 'clear sailing' ahead?  Just bet on the you-know-what's (genitals)  of consumers being tightened some more in the corpgov/bankster's economic vice, but everything else is 'all good'?  Not quite.  We've still got the same fundamental problems that we had in August when the first little bits of fear entered the market. And, the same problems two weeks back before the markets got momentarily rational.

And today's ugly little  'secrets revealed' meme is that French bank Societe Generale has uncovered massive fraud which could cost it as much as US$10.2 billion in write-offs. Other reports put the figure at only E4.9 billion, which on a 0.67 dollar conversion would put losses more like US$7.3 billion, but no matter how you cut it, it's dinner out, a movie and a year's worth of house payments for everyone who reads this column.

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Meantime, the CONgress and the WH are reported nearing a 'deal' on the economic stimulus package.

The key elements of real reform that I've suggested here, namely imposing a national usury limit on all credit cards and revolving debt of 12%, and restoring the income tax deduction for interest paid on consumer debt, have exactly not a snowball's chance in hell of being enacted.  You see, this is really about bailing out bankers - so the average working family will see little genuine impact.

Consider Plan G

Let me run out some numbers for you, to show you the potential impact of my Plan G when it comes to real  (durable) economic stimulus:

If a family has $15,000 of credit card debt, and they have been jacked up to 32% interest, they are racking up $4,800 per year of interest to the money changers.  If we simply restored the interest deduction for consumer debt, a family in the 25% tax bracket, that write off would shield $4,800 of income, or $1,200 of taxes (if anyone was listening in DC).

Now, look what happens if both the usury cap and deduction of interest were to be implemented  (Plan G):  First, the interest on the $15,000 of credit card debt would drop from $4,800 to $1,800 - saving $3,000 top line dollars which would otherwise go to the banksters - and then, 25% of the remaining $1,800, or $450, would be a tax write-off.  Total impact on personal budgets: $3,450.  Bonus: We bring the banker lobby to heel.

Now, being a rocket surgeon (sic), which do you think would do more to stimulate the economy, and oh yes, keep more people out of bankruptcy and foreclosures?  A permanent Plan G which would have an impact of $3,450 on a family's budget, or the  mightily hyped "stimulus' package which will impact $800 to $900 or so as a one-time shot?

Like I said, snowballs in hell would have a better chance - as the bankers are crying poor all the time.  But, if the nation was pursuing Peoplenomics instead of Bankernomics,  or Lobbynomics then a permanent 12% usury limit and permanent deductibility of consumer interest would be the right thing to do.  As long as we're at it, let's also throw in a mandate the Fed to "retain purchasing power of the US dollar".  Maybe even link it to some outside stand like gold or silver.

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Although there are major forces pulling both ways, it's still not clear whether reflation/inflation or deflation will rule the year  The only strategy that makes sense is to 'cover all bases' by reducing debt, and structure your personal finances as best you can to weather both potential outcomes.

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As Lee Iacocca asks in "Where have all the leaders gone?"

"Am I the only guy in this country who's fed up with what's happening? Where the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder. We've got a gang of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we've got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can't even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, "Stay the course."

Outrage is being conditioned out of us by mindless MainStreamMedia, sorry to say. Which is why this site sounds so disconnected from the MainStreamMedia's idea of 'reality'.

GM Wins - Barely

Speaking of Iacocca, that gets us to cars, and a well-deserved hats off to GM (we have a few readers there).  They beat Toyota, however barely, in the race to be the biggest automaker in the world.  The question is what will happen in 2008? 

Lesson from Kenya

This headline is catchy: "State Overpowering People."  And there's a dandy quote in the underlying story: "How long can poor people continue to protest on empty stomachs and against the gun power of the state?" Hmmm...let me see....

Democracy Russian Style

Opposition candidate, you say?  Going to run against Prince Vlad's hand-picked successor in Russia?  Not so fast!  Expect the signatures of your sponsors to be questioned - and to be administratively eliminated from the race. So sorry.  What do you think this is, democracy?

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Of course, our corporate duopoly in the good old USA is much neater about such trivialities.  Third party candidates like Ron Paul are just ignored by the MSM - saves all that paperwork.  Speaking of which:

The Runs: MSM Buried Story of the Day

Look like Ron Paul forces did raise the money to force a recount in New Hampshire, starting this morning.

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Second most buried story: Ron Paul comes in second in the Louisiana caucuses this week.

Madness on Bordering, Redux

Looking at the Palestinians doing 'shop till they drop" in Egypt, after a border wall was blown up, might be something someone and Homeland Security ought to think about while keeping our fence along the Mexican border from being built. Nah, forget I said that.  Might be something in the misnamed "Patriot Acts" that could be used against me (without trial...).

Remember when we used to have habeas corpus in America?  Those were the days, back when a dollar was worth seven cents and there were paper trails...

Harsh Irony Department

20 Polish Air Force members were killed in a plane crash on their way home from a flight safety conference.  Universe is harsh, sometimes.

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Coping: Meal Deals

With after Christmas bills, and tax season just ahead, I've been getting some really dandy cheap meal ideas submitted.  Here's a batch to start with:

Pasta Treats

OK, write down this bit of family wisdom: The main difference between 'noodles' in the grocery store and 'pasta' is what?  Price.  In the following recipe, to keep costs down, try some of those frozen chicken tenderloins in place of the chicken breasts.  Or, if you're in a hurry, try canned chicken - lots less work.  And fresh fettuccini is usually way more expensive than the dried stuff in the noodle section...

1-marinate boneless skinless chicken breasts ( 1 per person) in lite soy sauce, 1/2 cup red wine ( I use Merlot), garlic, salt, pepper for about an hour then grill and when done cut up in cube or strips

2- 2 boxes of fettuccini in boiling water, with 1 cup chicken broth, 2 tablespoons of olive oil keep at a low boil covered but make sure you mix the fetticunni with the broth and oil this keeps the noodles from sticking - 3- in a sauce pan use 2cups shredded Parmesan cheese 2 1/3 cup of half and half milk, 1 tablespoon butter over medium heat until cheese melts ( make sure you stir about every few minutes this takes about 10 to 15 minutes. ( this is Alfredo sauce)

4- when fettuccini is done put in plate, add chicken and pour over sauce

this is the way I fix it and its low fat and pretty good and not too expensive

add a salad of your choosing and and nice red merlot and you are good to go"

Throw in a glass of Pisano or five, and I'll be right over...

Speaking of Stewed...

Try this one:

"Home Stew with Wine (Beef or Chicken)

Have a 2-3 Gallon pot for this. Cooking Oil Salt Pepper Ground Thyme three large Bay Leaves 3 Tbsp. of Flour 4-6 Sprigs of Parsley 1 Large Onion Bag of Celery Bag of large Carrots Large can of Peeled Tomatoes 4-6 Russet Potatoes 2-4 Lbs. Beef (Cubed in to Tbsp. size pieces,) 4 Cloves of Garlic 1 can of Beef Stock (Chicken Stock for Chicken) 1 Bottle Red Wine (White for Chicken)

Prepare Onion by slicing into small Cubed pieces (under water works great) Slice into small pieces the Carrots, Celery and Potatoes Mash Garlic into paste Parsley and Bay leaves should be wrapped together w/string

Pour a few tablespoons of oil into the Pot and heat on medium. Add cubed Onions and sliced Celery. Heat for a few minutes stirring the items occasionally to coat well with oil, let steam rise. Add Beef Stock, Salt & Pepper, Flour and Ground Thyme Add Tomatoes Add sliced Carrots Add mashed Garlic Bring temperature back up just short of boiling and stir every few minutes. Add Red Wine (White for Chicken) Add cubed Beef (or Chicken) Add Parsley/Bay Leaf garnish Bring heat to slow boil and be sure everything is submerged. Add Potatoes, allow to boil and stir every few minutes. Reduce heat, mixture will remain very hot as it cooks. Cook until Beef is tender and well browned and Carrots and Potatoes are just shy of soft. Remove Parsley / Bay Leaves from mixture and serve.

Preparation time: 20 minutes Cooking time: 30 minutes depending on type of equipment.

Makes enough for a family of 4-5 for two meals or 10 people for one serving.

Adjust quantities as required."

Just a personal observation: The cheaper the wine (for cooking) the better.  Oh, and that string for the parsley and bay?  If you fish it out of the stew and use it to floss after dinner, you've got farther over the edge than we have...  I won't bother you with the old joke about the difference between parsley and...oh forget it...

Sourdough Bread

And, if you just have a hankering for bread, cheese and wine, here's a starting point:

http://www.io.com/%7Esjohn/sour.htm 

we tried this last week. making the starter was easy, bread good. in our oven another 10-15min bake time would have been better. the top didn't brown so we took it out and thumped it. sounded ok but not quite done on bottom.

be careful. this type of food has been known to shrink belts and jeans.

If you haven't visited www.cheesemaking.com, put it on your list.  A little homemade cheese can be done even in the smallest of apartments and it's way more fun than paying $8 for a two pound loaf lately.

Appalachian/Italian

This sounds good...

"Italian greens and pasta

Brown any kind of ground or chopped meat, about 1 lb. drain and set aside. Add 1/2 medium chopped onion Add 3 medium chopped tomatoes, or 1 can tomatoes Simmer 6 minutes. Add 1 quart water, sea salt and Italian spices to taste. (or use fresh parsley, basil, oregano & garlic) Add 2 cups chopped collards, kale, spinach, or whatever kinds of greens you have on hand. (or wild edibles like winter cress or creasy greens). 2 carrots, scrubbed and penny cut Simmer 10 minutes. Add 1 box pasta of your choice and simmer until pasta is tender to your liking. NOTE: It is extremely easy to make your own pasta from flour and water. The secret is kneading it thoroughly and working in enough flour to make it kind of dry. Roll out and cut into pieces, or ribbons. Use fresh or dried. Generally 1 cup flour to less than 1/4 cup water, and a pinch of salt. Takes longer to cook than conventional spaghetti noodles unless you roll it paper thin. To make rolling out easier, do it on waxed paper and then you can fold it over and peel it off. OR you may be fortunate enough to own a pasta machine which does most of the work for you. "

$5 in Iowa...

...and you can cook this up:

"Brown 1 lb ground beef and drain ($1.89ish here in Iowa) add 5 packs of Beef flavor Ramen Noodles/seasoning (usually 8 packs for $1) add 8 cups of water 1 1lb bag of frozen veggies (99 cents around here) I usually do "California mixed veggies

simmer and serve......we usually have toast with it. So I figure it's a $5 family meal"

More tomorrow (Hominy tacos) and keep the recipes coming.  Remember, anyone can grill a $20 bacon-wrapped filet.  Our target is $5 for a family of four or five.  If I get some time, I'll write up the George One-Pot Special...although it runs closer to $6 to feed four/five.

Send any kind of getting along better on less ideas to george@ure.net

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Around the Ranch:  This & That

The rebuild of the SB-221 linear amplifier may get done this weekend and ready for test firing.  Parts due in today.  May use a substitute Zener, depending on mounting issues.
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The new goats and the old goats are getting along better after sorting things out.

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Feral cat is still being standoffish, but I've got him hooked on 1 tablespoon of heavy cream at night.

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E's about over here flu/disease thing she got last week.

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First thing up this morning after goat feeding and breakfast is setting up a couple of Peoplenomics subscribers...got behind due to consulting overload.

Wednesday January 23, 2007

Update: Is the Fed Doing Arbies?

Arbies: Short for arbitrage. Buying up futures/options in order to slow or reverse a decline by the judicious use of leverage between current prices and future prices expectations.

A quick look at the Dow Transport Index and a comparison with other indices for today's trading session brings to mind a very interesting possibility.  Could it be the PPT is trying to buy up the Transports on the (Dow) Theory that as go transports, so goes the world?

Click here to look at the chart and you will see a big buy coming into the transports from about 20-minutes after the open.

Of course, it's always possible that some iron-constitution player would wade in and throw gobs of money at the transports - it just wouldn't be me, or anyone I know.

Another thing to consider is GM stock (the old mantra, as goes GM, so goes the world) and we see it's up a bit, too, at least when I looked.

But seriously: if you were the PPT, what index would you be buying right now to keep the markets from going over a cliff?  Seems to me the Transports are as good as any - and with a lot of Dow Theory saying it might work, well, a couple of hundred million might be worth a bet.

If it is the PPT, don't send us the bill...and if it is someone else?  Well, they've got a stronger stomach than me.  Or, they're crazier.

A Banking System in [Slow-Motion] Ruins

No, the biggest story of the day is not about the Mars Rover finding some alien running around on Mars and sending a picture of it back here.  Although, I admit it's interesting and right about on schedule with the 'strange energies from space' that's due linguistically about now.  And, the biggest story of the day is not about the Asian market 'rebound' on the Fed rate cut.  It's overstating things a bit to say "Asia is back" because when you look at India's Sensex, it's still about half of what it was last Friday, and in Japan, the chart of the Nikkei 225 since Friday looks suspiciously like driving down a mountain.  Repeat after me: dead cat bounce. 

The next leg down could start when investment committees have time for a few more hits of Maalox and contemplate where to go next.  The answer is simple: hyper-inflation.  That's about as easy a gamble as a person can make, this side of Las Vegas.  Why's that?

That's because the real story of the day was pointed out in an email from my friend Trader Bar (www.nowandfutures.com):  The Banksters at the Federal Reserve are getting rid of their own reserve requirements!

Here's the pertinent snip of the FOMC Meeting Minutes from October 24/25,2006 where 'the real plan' is exposed:

"The Chairman noted that the President had recently signed the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006, which among its provisions gave the Federal Reserve discretion, beginning October 2011, both to pay interest on reserve balances and to reduce further or eliminate reserve requirements. The Act potentially has important implications for many aspects of the Federal Reserve's operations and the Chairman asked Vincent Reinhart, Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs, to form a committee of Federal Reserve System staff to consider these issues."

As I have explained to Peoplenomics subscribers recently, the so-called 'fractional reserve' system has been missing a lot of its fractions lately, what with sweeps and other electronic manipulations able to use every cent not committed to keep it moving around the system and gaining tribute...I mean interest...on its owner's behalf.

A quick reread of the history of fractional reserve banking reveals what?

"As the notes were used directly in trade, the goldsmiths noted that people would never redeem all their notes at the same time, and saw the opportunity to issue new bank notes in the form of interest paying loans. These generated income—a process that altered their role from passive guardians of bullion charging fees for safe storage, to interest-paying and earning banks. Fractional-reserve banking was born. When creditors (the owners of the notes) lost faith in the ability of the bank to exchange their notes back into coins, many would try to redeem their notes at the same time. This was called a bank run and many early banks either went into insolvency or refused to pay up. "

So, there must be some kind of relationship between bank runs and having ready reserves.  BUT, imagine a world where the reserves become notional.  As I pointed out in yesterday's report, it looks by the latest H.3 report from the Fed that the "reserves" in America's banking system are already more than 100% 'borrowed money' anyway, so that's the path we're going down.

There's another name for this path:  runaway inflation.  Along about here, you might be asking yourself, "So, what does this mean for the balance of this year?"

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With the Fed turning on what's almost the 'free money machine' by dropping rates incredibly low this week, the stage is set for what could be the grand daddy of all blow off tops.  I can easily envision a scenario working out between now, and say the first week of October, where rampant inflation takes hold, much to the delight of the 'bankerly class.'  Here's some of what I would expect:

• Inflation could get real legs under it - this would be due to the lack of restraint in bank lending, which had formerly be circumscribed by reserve requirements.  Freed of this shackle, there's no telling how much "credit" (*which we know is really debt) these folks could create.

• This incipient inflation would allow the banksters who have been holding onto 'real estate owned' (REO) given up by foreclosed families, to dump them back on another class of aspiring folks who don't see their game - at a fat profit.  Picture repo'ing a house that has a $300,000 loan on it, where the bank loaned 80% of its $375,000 price, waiting till inflation digs in and bumps up prices say 20% to $360,000 in two years and doing another $300,000 loan on it.  So, not only would the bank get all its loan fees, plus interest on the free money they'd get from the Fed, but they would also get most of the $60,000 of inflation add back.  Like the satellite internet commercial says, "How cool is that?"

• Of course, the price of nearly everything would double - or more - but when you're in a Kondratieff long wave downswing, the economy should be able to absorb tons of inflation - which means the price of everything you buy could double as early as this fall.  Think of this as the Von Mises crack-up boom on steroids.

I'm looking at two possible tracks from here:  One is a breakout below 11,500, in which case a test of 10,400 is implied.  But, more likely, this will be a great place to do some 'bottom fishing' in the very short term - banking on the bankers (so to speak) to print up money so fast and giving it away so fast, that all kinds of assets will appreciate like crazy.  Including (and especially) commodities like the gold, silver, coffee call options, and wheat options we're holding.

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Tomorrow night, I'll be a guest on Steve Quayle's radio show (he has a new shortwave outlet, too, which seems to have much better coverage), and we'll be kicking around some of these implications.

In the meantime, the futures are pointing down about a hundred on the Dow.  But am I worried?  No way!

When the bankers control the financial instrument valuations, what's the absolutely worst place to be investing for your future?  My guess: Financial instruments.

The Second/Greater/Bush Depression is still ahead and the cautious sailor in these uncharted waters proceeds methodically and takes frequent soundings.  No telling when you'll have to reverse course. 

Conceptually, I like what I'd call the "Break up, break down spread.  Some portion of assets in 'other than paper' such that you could weather a serious deflation with no serious loss of lifestyle, and the other portion in some inflation-sensitive investments (non-paper) so that you can benefit from inflation as well.  A paid for house/land/big enough to garden would fit the former, while some grains and metals would fit the latter.

The options trading analogs would be and inflation/deflation straddle or strangle.  Weighted as what you think the world will be like in six months drifts around.

Just as I have ghosted into man a new mooring back in my sailing days, under sail, I nevertheless kept the engine going - and ready to pop into reverse - just in case it was needed.  The same kind of thinking applies to financial decisions as well. 

In the sailing case, the essence of good seamanship is an uneventful voyage.  And in the financial case, just keeping your net worth intact is a fine destination under current conditions.  Especially with ships around us going down with all hands.

Buy Metals?

With this kind of news sloshing around quietly in the background, a reader asks:

"I've been trying to convince a family member to start buying precious metals for years now and they finally have started to look at it seriously - yes, I'm from a family of methane breathers. I'm beginning to worry that the metals dealers around the country will be sucked dry in the near future as the idea of physical metals ownership catches on. Have you seen anything relating to such a trend yet?"

Yes.  The trend has a simple name:  China.

No Getting Over It

The European press still reporting on the Princess Di inquest .  Isn't this like a 10-year old event?

Same Old Conflicts, Too

Say, here's another timeless headline: "Militants fire rockets at Pakistan military camp..."

Beating the Iran Drum

And then we find commentary in the WSJ online "Stopping Iran.". 

Iran, meantime, not to be outdone, is reaching out to Iraq.

Now, here's a practical question for you as an economic realist:  How many wars can we fight and still have an economy?   But then again, with (effectively) no reserve requirements for our banks, we ought to be able fund more...

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Coping: Eating on the Cheap

We've had some absolutely great recipes come in featuring ways to feed a family of four or five for less than $5-6 for a dinner.  But before we get to that, let me put in a pitch for the finest breakfast, lunch, dinner food I can think of: Pizza.

A friend of mine (back in the day) owned a pizza & beer joint just south of SeaTac airport called "The Pizza Company."  He made the interesting observation that pizza is one of the best balanced foods you can eat.  "Look," he said, "You've got vegetables, meat, grain, and dairy with the cheese - perfect balance in a single dish."  Of course, that was helped along by a killer sourdough crust and a few pitchers of beer and some friendly darts in this converted gas station covered with plastic-coated hatch covers (very 1970's, you know).

I just had a couple of slices of pizza for breakfast - and it goes surprisingly well with a hot cup of coffee and warmed up on the Pizza Reheat cycle in the food nuker.

Keep a pound or two of shredded Mozzarella on hand, along with either fresh or (gag) canned mushrooms and whatever turns you on for toppings, and you can see how pie-like creations can really stretch the food dollar.

Along the same lines, I like to keep a good stash of flour tortillas on hand for much the same reason.  A bit of leftover stew, for example, may not seem especially appetizing on its own, but throw it on a flour tortilla, put on a lump of sour cream, and a shake or three of Tabasco - and now you've got something worthy of eating.

Tuesday January 22, 2008

Panic at the Fed:  Emergency Rate Drop

Official word just out within the hour:

"For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis.

Will this slow your 33% APR Debt Burden cards?  Nope. Will it refi your house?  Nope.  Will it save a bunch of bankers?  Maybe for a few days...but the real question is this:

How Far Down?  Three Worries

Unless you live under a rock, you already know that world markets have collapsed - in some cases more than 10% in the past couple of sessions.  But now, charmer of the morning that I am, I thought I'd throw out a couple of more reasons why, as we've headlined on this site since 1997, we're going to have to get around to replaying 1929 sometime in order to reset the money-clock so we can have another cycle of good old-fashioned American Boom & Bust - the stuff that if you play it right, enables one group of people to claw their way to the top.  That it's at another groups expense is not worthy of considerations - this is after all, only about money, right?

So with the futures making a big sucking sound, let me roll out my three largest worries of the day and the reasons for them.

• Terrorism:  You will recall that as the US markets came tumboling down in the wake of the internet bubble bursting, as as we approached a major inflation/panic point in the market, there was an 'attack'; on the twin towers by 'terrorists'.  With the market about to enter the second major leg down - and this implies we could take out the old 7,400 kind of lows, one as to wonder if a 'terrorist' attack might not be a little too convenient about now.  It would surely cover the bankster's trails:  After all, they'd be able to claim (in corpmedia/MainStream/LameStream) that the economic collapse was because of terrorists.  And, sure as the sun will be up in a few minutes, there'd be some segment of 401-K holders would swallow that - hook, line, and sinker.  A point of mental clarity for all of us should be that if 'terrorism' shows up now, it would be far too convenient and too coincidental.  Still, like a diversion during a major crime, it just might work - allowing banksters to skate and blame-shift - something they're really uite good at.  I'd argue that if you want to see who the terrorists are, ask yourself ,about the South American gangs that pour guns and drugs in through our de FRENCE-less southern border, and then look at the APR's from the bankster cabal on the credit card statements of the families going through foreclosures.  That's terrorism.
   

• Collapse of Fractional Reserve Banking:  I must be reading the Federal Reserve's H.3 "Aggregate Reserve of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base" all wrong.  If you scroll down to Table 2 and look at the not-seasonally adjusted figures for the "Reserves of depository institutions" you will see three columns on the left.  Total (Reserves) "nonborrowed (reserves) and "required" (reserves). 
  
  The shocker is that the preliminary January 16th number showed that the required reserve of banks was $39,989 million dollars. This means how much money the banks claim to have on hand as their portion of the 'fractional reserve' banking system is (ballpark) $40 billion.
  
  OK, the third column says the amount of reserves they are required to have by the Federal Reserve is only $38,278 million.  (*$32.3 billion, ballpark).
  
  OK, I've saved the scariest for last: Column #2.  It says the amount of nonborrowed money (*money that the banksters didn't have to borrow to meet their reserve requirements was negative.  In other words, if I am reading this right, the whole fractional reserve banking system's reserves required is being held afloat strictly by borrowed money at this point!
  
  I've heard about people wanting to take money out of this account or that (*in major brokerage firms so far) but being told they may have to wait a week to get their money, but if I am reading the H.3 report right, that might soon happen to banks - and the specter of Bank Holidays may be on us sooner than we might like.  The sharp-eyed readers who sent this along to me said they went back through the history of the Fed to 1959 and could find no similar event, but hey, maybe this will be massaged out when the next Fed H.3 update is released.  You better pray it is.
   

• Mindless MainStream/LameStream Media:  Say, let's look in on the Asian Markets, shall we?  When trading closed on Friday, the Hang Seng was at 25,201.87.  Today it was at 21,757.63.  That's a 13.66% drop in two trading days.
  
  And it's not like they're alone.  The Indian Sensex market, down 7.4% yesterday was down about 5% - which means a 12%-something drop.  And as my deflationist pal Jas Jain writes of India (and none-too-subtly):

"Baaaaaa, baaaaaa, baaaaaa…

That cry you hear is from India Goats rounded up for the slaughter who are now facing the same fate as they watched for America Pigs and ignored. Even America Pigs are resting their hopes on China Bulls and India Goats to keep consuming. Not if lot of China Bulls and India Goats get slaughtered.

India’s Crooks, trained in America, or badly copying America, took pages out of America’s Crooks on how to scam the public (Pushing Debt and goosing up the Scam Market), spiced it up for local consumption and then they started serving the hot curry to America Pigs and the rest. It was the rush of America’s Crooks and Pigs that took India Goats to a whole new level of delirium.

Let me be clear: Slaughter of America Pigs, China Bulls and India Goats has begun in earnest and impotent Bernanke and Bush are of no help (they could make it uglier, though). What sort of dope would put faith in these guys' ability? In case it matters, American People are politically impotent. All the real political power rests in the hands of America’s Crooks. Policies that favor America's Crooks will keep getting implemented in the name of helping the overall economy and at the expense of hardworking Americans. I am sure that it is no different in India.

Rule of the Crooks always ends badly, be it America, or India."

Jas, by the way, wanted to make sure you clearly understood what he's been staying about bonds:

"George Ure: “Now doubt my deflationist friend Jas Jain will be mentioning this: "European government bonds rise as equity markets falls fuel demand for safer assets." Credit where due: He's got it right. Not corporate bonds, mind you. Government instruments.”

Sorry, George, your readers might misconstrue – ONLY the US Govt bonds. No munis and state, because many of them would be heading to bankruptcy, especially, CA, FL, NY and TX."

Fair enough.  One of my local ham radio acquaintances was planning to move some 401-K money around yesterday into a treasury fund), only to discover it was a holiday.  Now wondering "Did I wait a day too long?"   We'll know soon enough.

Meanwhile, my point in this third worry is to underscore how many people will sleep right through what could be a calamitous period of blood in the street.  No doubt, they will be like people watching the Big Screen and going to their garage a few hours after hearing some noise, only to find their car has been stolen.  Except, instead of a car, it will be your retirement. 

The BIG STORIES being hyped today are not about the risk we all face, or what you can do about it in the early going today.  Nope.  CorpMedia will sadly report after the fact how the "retirement accounts were hard hit by the market's declines this week..." along about...oh...Friday!

Monday January 21, 2008

Global Synchronized Collapse?

Be happy you're not seeing US markets open today.  Those markets which have been open look like crap.  Asia went through a mini-collapse last night.  India's once go-go Sensex market went-went last night tumbling nearly 7.5%.  That would be like our Dow losing 900 points.  Something which I assure you won't happen today, but only because the markets in the US are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Tomorrow, no guarantees.

Blood's flowing in all the European bourses, too.  One German commercial real estate lender is down as much as 12%.  Remember a few weeks back I said "commercial lending will collapse next"?  Hmmm...not my fault the future shows up the way it does.

Now doubt my deflationist friend Jas Jain will be mentioning this:  "European government bonds rise as equity markets falls fuel demand for safer assets."  Credit where due: He's got it right.  Not corporate bonds, mind you.  Government instruments.

The NY Post headlines today that "Marts Dread 10,000: Dow Tests Bottom"  Want to place a side bet on whether than will hold?

Here's a sobering thought:  If you have a retirement plan or a 401-K, you've already got a major bet down...

Gold is down today.  Seems investors are unsure whether it will be an inflationary or deflationary end.  The US dollar is up quite a bit today.  Maybe we should take more holidays; seems to help.

His World Order

Gordon Brown is calling for major overhaul of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to deal with changing global circumstances.  And we should listen to a guy who sold off tons of England's gold at almost the dead bottom in prices because why?  You don't suppose this is part of the elite's plans do you?

Eye Catching Headline

"Thousands pay respects to Hillary".  Oh, Sir Edmund.

The Runs:  Still Burying Ron Paul

It's amazing to me that a fellow that gets second in Nevada gets significantly less ink that a bunch of other presidential wannbe's,  Mind numbing, really.  Corpgov duopoly.

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One weekend wash-out: Duncan Hunter.  Who?

Death of Papers

With the internet becoming a much more credible source of news than some newspapers, the layoffs are starting up and we are watching the big papers with particular interest.

"L.A. Times editor fire, "significant changes" ahead.  Up the coast, the "Seattle Times to lay off 71 in Bothell."

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Not like it's just papers, though.  A souring economy and the 'same old' kind of answers from the Beltway mean even outfits like Yahoo may be eyeing cuts.

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And the next round of financial industry layoffs hasn't hit the Big (rotten?) Apple yet.  In coming weeks, it'll get bloody, though.

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Coping:  Cleaning Electronics

More about how to clean electronics:

"During my hippie video repairman days I had occasion to clean many VCRs which had been subjected to milk, coffee, beer, cat urine. Etc.

Other than cat urine, which usually proved fatal after as little as 3 hours with power applied or 12 hours unplugged, the following sequence was the best and the only re-dos I got were re-spills :-)

1) No-ammonia Windex and a toothbrush. As you already mentioned, use discretion with transformers, meters and mechanical parts. Repeat as necessary.

2) Thorough rinse with straight up ready mix window washer fluid. Toothbrush as necessary. Use lots, it's cheap.

3) Final rinse with +90% Isopropyl will remove H2O wonderfully well if you can stand the smell.

4) Dry 24 Hours to 1 Week depending on RH%. A warm (electric!) oven speeds the process.

Sleeve type bearings should be soaked clean with the solvent of your choice, dried thoroughly and lubricated with full synthetic motor oil. A fluid sold for restoring typewriter platens (probably outlawed by now) used to nicely restore the rubber parts.

Transformers should be soaked out with Isopropyl and dried by applying DC current through the windings to warm them up. Applying the maximum AC current rating as a DC current works very well. Westinghouse used this method after a late 19th century Pittsburg flood with great success.

Felt on brake bands should normally be replaced. "

Another offers this:

"I found (in the electronics racket - bare boards) that running bare boards through a dishwasher using Cascade dishwasher soap, results in the boards registering 'zero' on the ionic contamination scale. Ionic contamination is something we board people must certify to for certain high end clients."

All this said, there is some danger to dishwashers, depending on the boards:

"Consider thermal stress.

Old circuit boards, especially conductors and solder joints, may delaminate.

Consider the ph and other minerals in your water.

The air hose can blast water INTO things as well as damage delicate things. I would still use it, just at a distance and with patience. Finish off with 4-8 hours with a floor fan at high speed (every once in a while, tilt and shake the subject equipment to get the drops mobilized).

I have used pressure washers - at appropriate distances to soften the impact - on things with electric motors like floor fans.

As part of annual maintenance I use an air hose to blow the dust out of PCs and other electronics stuff. Carefully, and do NOT overspin the fans. I follow up with the fan (air compressors spit condensation). BTW I have relative humidity here so static is not a concern. In the desert that may be different. Some items I take outside, but some big items (tv, mainframe, furnace, refrigerator) done in place, but to keep the house clean I do it much more slowly, in small bursts, holding a shop vac nearby to catch 95% of the debris.

I once submerged and sloshed around a 21" crt monitor (10 years ago when they were very expensive), an old crt terminal, and a keyboard in a bathtub, room temp water, to clean out urine from an aging dog in the room above). Come to think of it, it was softened water. I did not even open the case, just used an air hose at the air slots and several days of a floor fan. Monitor lasted another 6-7 years, longer than average for those beasts. The terminal and the keyboard also survived well. The ink-jet printer could not be rescued because accursed ink cartridges are locked when powered off at positions where they cannot be removed."

OK, enough on this - send in some new topics - up to my ears in Cat Taming tricks...

Real Economic Justice

Some good ideas from fellow readers:

"SC is taking all those payday lenders to court to try and drive them out of the state. When the interest and fees were calculated by the AG, they added up to (are you ready for this one???) 391% interest!

The payday lenders are crying foul, saying that the fees shouldn't be counted in, but the state says since the fees have to paid, they do count. We'll see who wins."

Another says:

"How about reinstating the tax credit for the interest paid on all general and credit card debt ? "

Boy, wouldn't that be sweet?  That and campaigns to limit interest rates to 12% max like back in the "old days".

Send snip & save ideas to george@ure.net.  How about a new topic:  How about best meal for five people at the lowest price?

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Around the Ranch: Ham Radio Work Bench

I spent a few very enjoyable hours on Sunday putting a couple of pieces of ham radio gear on the bench.  My small linear amplifier, which does about 750 DC watts input (dead key on 20-meters) was given a going over, looking for why it only does 650 watts (DC) input on 75 meters.  I suspect one of the caps on the untuned input is going, going...but rather than tear apart the back panel, I decided not to get deeply into that project.  The thing was only designed for 500 watts in the first place, so even after my mods, I guess I should be happy with it.  Putting EL-509's into an old Dentron is not exactly taxing.  More recently, folks have been shoe horning in Russian GI-7BT tubes, but it's more work.  While I was tempted, the return of taking on another mod seems very low on a 'cost-per-watt-gained' basis. 

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Next up was the Hallicrafters SR-150 power supply.  I got after it with the capacitance meter and discovered that the LV  [low voltage] power supply, which had an old electrolytic can type cap as a filter was down to 6 uF and 8 uF respectively.  A quick installation of a couple of computer-grade 22uF caps there, and some additional capacitance (which I call 'vitamin C')  in the bias supply and all traces of hum were gone.  Chatting on 75 to some friends in Louisiana and Mississippi, it was about on par with the Icom 746 (processor off mode).

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Last, but not least, I started work on the newly acquired SB-221.  The reported problem with the radio was that the Zener diode that sets bias had blown, and that had taken out the filter cap in the bias supply.  Armed once again with a meter, I set about looking into things only to discover that the Zener in question had different forward and reverse measurements (implying the Zener might not be bad) but that the regular diode in the bias supply (a half-wave rectifier set up) was deader than a doornail.  This would certainly explain why the small (22 uF) 150 volt cap reportedly went off like a shotgun on its way to perdition.

After putting a little heftier diode in the bias supply (3A @1000 PIV), and a much larger cap (33 uF @ 450V) I was faced with the question of the 10 watt Zener diode that had been reported bad.  Hmmm...trust my measurements alone?  Build a small LV source and actually measure the voltage threshold?  Or, just be patient and wait a week for the4 already-ordered replacement parts to show up?  Laziness won out, at least temporarily.

With a pair of replacement 3-500Z tubes going for $300+, I decided patience was the least-risk path so I went ahead and installed the Harbach soft key module.  The original amp was designed for tube-type gear so switching was done with relatively high voltage & current relay lash-up. 

Newer equipment (like my Icom gear) doesn't care for high voltage/current switching, so you need something between the amplifier and the radio gear to step-down the switching requirements.  The Harbach mod was pie simple to put in; all of 10 minutes including mounting and soldering the four wire connection.

The big problem now is keeping my hands off the amp until parts come in.  And just sitting there, I'm now tempted to put in all kinds of other mods before tasking it from the bench to the operating position.  As luck would have it, though, there's enough real work to do around here that it may not be an issue.

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One of the nanny goats looks close to giving birth, and that means I need to finish up the siding on the goat barn.  There's another 1,000 feet of fencing to install, and that means updating my fencing installing tool that I told you about a few months back.  But before I get to that, there's the projects for the consulting client...ah, such is life here on the ranch...

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Oh, that cat taming exercise?  Coming along well.  I can now get 20-feet or less from the cat and it is showing up around 4:30 daily.  I put a couple of tablespoons of whipping cream out for it, along with the usual gourmet mix of dry cat food.  

It's still suspicious though, although I can't blame it.  Anyone saying "Here kitty, kitty, got any ideas on what the forward resistance of a 1N3996A should be?" ought to be kept at a safe distance. Even Pusscilla, the house cat, knows the answer is 540 ohms plus or minus a mouse...