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Symptoms of Depression

If I were teaching a class on financial pathology, I'd begin with a diagnostic decision-tree of the type medical practitioners use to help them sort out one illness from another.  It would be a large series of "IF-THEN, ELSE" kind of statements that once nested, would help a person ascertain whether the economy was going to stabilize, or whether there's more pain to come.

 

Here are just a few of my collection of IF-THEN-ELSE statements that I use to sort through financial developments:

• IF credit is too easy THEN malinvestment occurs, ELSE healthy investment atmosphere.

• IF money injections exceed actual economic growth THEN monetary inflation, ELSE non-monetary inflation.

• IF jobs decline, THEN economic contraction ELSE questionable jobs data.

• IF CPI flat, THEN grocery bills stable, ELSE questionable CPI data

• IF gold goes up, THEN monetary inflation, ELSE gold price bubble

• IF Fed bails out one bank THEN expect more bank failures, ELSE Easter Bunny is real.

 

I offer these in no particular order; the point is that you can only have so many indicators that 'we're not out of the woods yet' before even the most ardent deniers will start bumping into trees.

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The Federal Reserve, in bailing out Bear Stearns this week, has given the astute investor something of a benchmark:  Bear is too big to fail.

 

It's not just that Bear's failure would cause problems in the US - the problems could become global/system (like they aren't already), leading the UK's Telegraph to headline "Bear Stearns exposed as a bank saddled with toxic sub-prime debt."

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Someone who has studied longwave economics might argue that the Kondratiev Wave might be going through an economic revolution which will lead to the abolition of the 50-70-year cycles in the economy.  And, to be sure, there is a case to be made.

 

But let's step back for a minute.  The whole 'purpose' if you can call it that, of an economic depression is to wipe out a long period of accumulated interest, malinvestment, and generally clean house so that a new foundation for economic growth can be started on a solid foundation with little (if any) debt.

 

The Panic of 1873 and the Great Depression of the 1930's had some common elements which must be considered, the largest of which is their occurrence about 10-years after the end of a major war.  Banks and brokerage firms collapsing was the outward symptom in both cases, and there was a monetary aspect in each - the Coinage Act in 1873, and the seizure of gold in the early 1930's.

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From a little reading here, we might infer that IF we're into a Second Depression, THEN we should see worthless paper, ELSE it may just be a normal recession.

 

The difficulty, however, is that digi-dollars in today's world can disappear, leaving us without the failed currencies and stock certificates which have accompanied past hyperinflation events and crashes, such as the Weimar Inflation or the Crash of 1929.

 

We're in a strange land where "digis" can just go 'poof!' yet the effect would be the same.  Just no evidence laying around with which to paper the bathroom.

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The Press seems to have gone schizoid on the where the precious metals are heading in the current environment.  On the one hand, we read reports that "Analysts see gold hitting US$1,200 in three months" (which I personally expect to be classic understatement), but on the other "The rising value of gold leads to a seller's rush."

 

So which is it?  A simple litmus test is provided by the markets.  If the price is going up for a commodity - such as gold in this case - then there are more buyers than sellers.  It's as simple as that. 

 

Could it be that so many people are flocking to jewelers to cash in gold that somehow the price will be constrained?  Forgive my skepticism, but I seriously doubt it.

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A simple reality check on gold's upper limit comes from a visit to the Minneapolis Fed site where you can plug in the momentary $850 high of gold in 1980 and see what the equivalent price today would be, thanks to the Fed's printing money faster than actual GDP growth:  $2,224..

 

By the same token, there's a historical 16:1 relationship between silver and gold. With gold's close over $1000 this week, a quick punch of the calculator says that today silver prices at its historical 16:1 relationship would price silver at $62.50 - and if applied to gold at $2,224.03, then a case could be made for $140 silver.

 

While I DO NOT OFFER FINANCIAL ADVICE, it's fair to say that in my commodity option account this week I did something I rarely do:  I 'chased' some options as silver was going up.  Linguistically, we could be looking at a shining spring which starts next weekend. 

 

What could drive prices so much higher that I'd profit from such a move? The coming April/May strike on Iran, of course.  Even without improvement in the present gold/silver ratio $1,200 gold (an Iran War slam dunk in my book) would push silver over $25.

 

The elections in Iran seem unlikely to change anything, and with the clock running out on his presidency, George and the neocons will want to do something while they still have enough time in office to prosecute the next war to its fullest.

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I doubt that I'm the only one who can use a calculator.  If we really do see $1,200 gold in three months, $21 silver would be a gold silver ratio north of 57 - which to my way of thinking is absurd.  So, either gold's got to come down, or (as I'm betting) silver will go up.  I told you I was buying silver around $7 an ounce in 2005 and looking back that call alone makes me feel like I've outgunned most of the hedge fund 'geniuses' out there.

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It's all really simple:  Before the New Worlders can move along to the next currency, this one has to be destroyed.  The easiest way to do that is with the printing press - something the Federal Reserve has been very good at.  What cost one dollar in 1913 when the Fed seized control of the nation's money now costs $21.7778.

 

So vast is the debasing of the nation's money that it now costs - you're going to love this - 1.7- cents to make and distribute a penny.  More amazing?  Fox Business reported this week that a nickel costs 9.5-cents! 

 

This is also why you shouldn't be surprised to read about copper theft in places like Portsmouth New Hampshire and Panama City Florida.

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It seems to me that when the metal in a coin is worth more than the face value of the coin, that a country has serious economic ills that haven't been addressed.

 

I'll let you in on a little secret:  Figuring out that a currency crisis with paper and digidollars has been a foregone conclusion to me every since the April 17, 2007 press release from the US Mint that melting of pennies and nickels would get you whacked with a $10,000 and up to five years in jail.

 

I mean, how tough is this to pencil out:  IF coins cost more than their face value THEN currency crisis ELSE coins have numismatic value.

 

Given that a penny doesn't have numismatic value (there's enough of them that I doubt they will be 'collectable' any time soon, the inference is that we're heading for what?  How about death of the dollar?  And with that, buying precious metals (and converting paper into real goods as quickly as possible) seems to make sense.

 

Not that it's a depressing state of affairs - it's a depression state of affairs.  But like all depressions in the nation's past, there's usually a way to play to win.  The traditional route of thrift, living below one's means, then buying bargains at the bottom of the cycle makes sense to me.  So when we get to the bottom in February 2010, you'll see me taking out loans again and leveraging the next round of inflation.  Between now and then?  I'll just be Mr. Cheap and save my pennies.

 

Memes: Them Winds

Our linguistic pals seem right on the money with their exceptional winds forecast, as Atlanta has been trashed by a tornado.

 

Diaspora

A reader caught the meme on TV Friday night:

"I'm not up on the timeline (when things are expected), but....

the word "migration" was mentioned on the New Hour tonight. In a statement similar to "...in the 1930's there were great migrations of people from one area to another. We haven't seen that yet.....but some are saying things are that bad."

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I'm not sure the parallels hold, lots of that movement was due to the Dust Bowl. Less rail traffic too. Seems to me people wouldn't really know where to go (where they'd be better) nowadays. I'd guess we'd be more likely to see migrations by whomever isn't washed away by the coastal event."

Aha!  Symptom of what?

Plane Speaking

Here's just what I need: A new Gulfstream 650 - so I can approach the speed of sound while jaunting here and there.  Pour me another shot of Jack, would yah?

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A little more affordable: 'smart glasses' that would make lost keys and phones a thing of the past.

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OK, more seriously, fewer folks will be dreaming of such gadgets: Home foreclosures up 60% in February.  Symptoms of depression.

 

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Coping: More on Car Cost Accounting

My notes on car costs yesterday drew some additional deep thinking on the subject:

George,

I've looked at this too. There are additional costs per mile other than depreciation. Toyota, Honda, Nissan face a straight depreciation to $2000 residual at 180,000 miles. For GM, Ford, Chrysler depreciate to $1000 at 150,000 miles.

Annual licensing: An older car in some states, like Colorado where I live, is cheaper for annual licensing: here $42 if your car is over 10 years old, no matter what type or size, where a new SUV will set you back $900 in the first year, $700 in the second, etc.

Insurance: An older car not worth insuring for comp/collision will save 30%-40% on insurance.

Sales Tax: Sales tax on an older car is less, usually by hundreds of dollars.

Leasing: If you lease a car, sales tax is charged on both the interest AND PRINCIPAL portion of your lease payment.

Obsolescence: This is the big one. Given the expected change in technology and gas mileage over the next 10 years, a new car had better pay for itself in 5 to 7 years, because all the iron on the road right now will be worth zero $ at the end of that time. An older vehicle would be a lot less to lose when it becomes obsolete.

Send snip and save items - anything that you find a useful strategy to remain sane in an un-sane world - to george@ure.net

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This week for Subscribers to Peoplenomics:

13 Acres and Independence Part 5:  Education: You Bet Your Life

This being Spring Break, let's postpone the actual developing, and building of your 'next life' farm/ranch/habitat/retreat/sanctuary to define the knowledge you'll need to make it really work, then plan to acquire the knowledge in the most cost-effective way possible.   We'll tread on sacred ground again by discussing how Higher Ed often SELLS useless (or very low value) knowledge in return for mountains of student loan debt.  But if you believe that a student loan will secure you're future, you could be DEAD wrong.  We begin with the distinctions between schooling, knowledge and education, understanding the pricing models of each, and build a plan to have the right mix of knowledge for the future.  No, it hasn't escaped our notice that the subprime meltdown has extended to student loans....

 

               More for Subscribers      Subscription Information

 

Tell Your Friends About This Site!

If you know anyone who is interested in preserving the Constitution, fighting usury from banksters, and shaking off consumer hypnosis, tell them about this site.  Click here to send 'em an invite...

 

No Incumbents Bumper Stickers

To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here.  They're just $5.  And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House  he is not an incumbent for that office  having never held that job before, you see.  And the CONgressional folks?  Don't even get me started... Primaries this week in Texas and Ohio, to name just a few - eyes wide shut?

 

Mr. Cheap's Tricks

There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such.  It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is  our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less.  Still just $10.

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Last week's report is here.    If for back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

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I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

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Friday March 14, 2008

Truth Leak: Headline of the Week

This is a marvelous Freudian - hope they don't fix it...it's such a grand example of truth leaking out:

"Federal Reverse Pledges to Supply Cash"

There, don't you feel better with the Dow dumping on the bear Bear news (a fine double entendre, one might observe)? Perhaps the only better question would be "Does a bear dump in the Street?"

 

Unbelievable Inflation Numbers

Well, this sure doesn't square with my shopping experience, but here's the 'offishul' word:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in February before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The February level of 211.693 (1982-84=100) was 4.0 percent higher than in February 2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.2 percent in February prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level of 207.254 (1982-84=100) was 4.4 percent higher than in February 2007.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in February on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The February level of 122.251 (December 1999=100) was 3.7 percent higher than in February 2007. Please note that the indexes for the post-2006 period are subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was virtually unchanged in February, following a 0.4 percent rise in January. Each of the three groups--food, energy, and all items less food and energy--contributed to the deceleration. The index for food at home, which rose 0.9 percent in January, increased 0.3 percent. The moderation reflected a downturn in the indexes for fruits and vegetables, for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, and for nonalcoholic beverages. The index for energy turned down in February as a 1.9 percent decline in the index for energy commodities more than offset a 1.7 percent increase in the index for energy services. The index for all items less food and energy was virtually unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in January. The deceleration reflects smaller increases in the indexes for shelter, for medical care, for recreation, for education and communication, and for other goods and services, and a decline in the index for apparel."

This may set off a screaming rally because there was no change in the core rate that's all items less food and energy because policy makers don't use those.  It clears the way to ink up the Fed's printing press with lower rates.

Me?  I've got plans to go bottom fishing for precious metals options on the decline here.

PPT Plans

Often called the Plunge Protection Team, the President's Working Group on Markets has issued its report on how they plan to operate going forward.  If you're a serious investor, you might want to read what amounts to the PTB's roadmap here.

 

Rogers: Lose the Fed

Jim Rogers, one of my commodity trading heroes, says "This man Bernanke just goes from bad to worse..."  Me?  Inflation of commodities has been highly tradable!  "A collapsing currency is not good for the world..." says Rogers.

 

Good News - Briefly

This may not last long, but there are some headlines on the economic front besides the manically reported CPI numbers which are not even remotely connected to the lifespace most of us live in.

 

For example, we read that the dollar has rebounded from recent lows against the Euro.  And if that doesn't send you falling to your knees in a chorus of Hallelujahs, how about the headline that oil backed off a bit from its record highs?  (You can get up now...it won't last.)

 

Maui Wowie

Gas at $4 in the Hawaiian Islands. Some come to the mainland, bro.

 

Hunger Pangs

Here's a good background article on how food shortages can lead to wars.

 

The Eggs Meme

The poisoned/eggs meme from modelspace a while back is starting to pop:  "Study finds over 100 harmful contaminants in Main bird eggs..."  Seems (linguistically) like a lot more headlines and coverage of this will follow, so we'll sit back and watch it build from here into the MSM...

 

Taxaholics Gathering

Probably the biggest story of the day is the battle going on in CONgress over taxes.  As the WSJ Online headlines it:  "Congress's Votes on Taxes Set Stage for Election Battle."

 

Of course one thing we'll be taking note of is whether the democorp and republicorp wannabes actually show up and cast ballots.

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As a side note, here's a ponder for you:  In this age of online encrypted banking and browsing from cell phones, why doesn't Congress simply login and vote online?  Purely from an JR standpoint, if I had an employee who missed as many votes as some of these folks, I'd have applied the not-yet-famous Ure Principle of Management: Three Strikes and You're Out.

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Credit Where Due:

Idaho Senator Mike Crapo's at least thinking about the issue of tax burdens.  On his web site this morning he has an interest rap about the Tax Foundation's "Tax Freedom Day" in 2007.

"Each year The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan, nonprofit tax research organization, calculates the tax burden faced by Americans using Tax Freedom Day. This answers the question: What price is the nation paying for government. In theory, if all our earnings went first to taxes starting January 1 each year, Tax Freedom Day is the day on which we could start keeping some of our earnings. In 2007, Tax Freedom Day arrived two days later than in 2006. What's interesting is that the tax relief enacted in 2001 and 2003 moved Tax Freedom Day up 12 days earlier, to April 18).

 

Tax Freedom Day is calculated by dividing the official government tally of all taxes collected in a year by the official government tally of all income earned in the same year. It takes into account federal, state and local taxes. The Tax Foundation has been monitoring fiscal policy in our country since 1937.

 

It is distressing to realize that each year taxes are taking more and more out of the paychecks of working Americans.

 

For example, in 1900, Tax Freedom Day came on January 22, with taxes accounting for just 5.9 percent of income.

 

By 1950, Tax Freedom Day arrived on April 1, and taxes took up nearly 25 percent of income.

 

In 2007, Tax Freedom Day arrived on April 30, with taxes taking at 32.6 percent, the highest percentage since 2000.

 

So, we worked 120 days just to pay our taxes. It took 79 days for federal taxes and 41 for state and local taxes. Here's how that works out for the various taxes we face:

• 43 days for individual income taxes (33 for federal; 10 for state)

• 30 days for social insurance taxes (29, federal; 1, state)

• 16 days for sales and excise taxes (3, federal; 13, state)

• 12 days for property taxes (0, federal; 12, state)

• 14 days for corporate income taxes (12, federal; 2, state)

• 5 days for other taxes (2, federal; 3, state)

And as for the other expenses that we incur each day:

• 62 days for housing and household options

• 52 days for health and medical care

• 30 days for food

• 309 days for transportation

• 22 days for recreation

• 13 days for clothing and accessories

• 36 days for other expenses

If you look at the report for state information, the State of Idaho carries one of the lighter tax burdens in the country, coming in at 41st. Tax Freedom Day for the state came on April 19, eleven days ahead of the national Tax Freedom Day and nearly a month ahead of Connecticut's Tax Freedom Day of May 20. "

Crapo may not be Ron Paul, but at least he and his staff are looking at Tax Freedom Day. 

 

Let me see: April 30th is four full months out of 12.  Hand me the calculator would you?

 

That means we're all working a full one third of our lives to pay for government.  And with the next meeting of the Taxaholics, that's almost certain to increase again.

 

Haven't we saved enough Daylight and paid enough taxes to implement a Universal Four Day Workweek yet?

 

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Coping:  The Car Decision

I was having a discussion with a buddy early this morning and we got to talking about cars.  Yeah - worst things on the planet to buy.  And I told him that anymore, the way prices have been backed up on most used cars, you can buy a new car for about the same cost per mile as a used on.

 

"Look at the math," I told him.  And because it's interesting, let's run through a hypothetical car.

 

Suppose I wanted to buy a new Porsche Cayman S.  With a little shopping around I could probably get the car for $60,000 equipped the way I want.

 

To get to my operating cost per mile, I simply divide the cost of the car by 100,000 miles.  In this case, it works out to 60-cents a mile.

 

"Come on George, here's one on CarMax that's used - and you can get it for $47,000 and it only has 20,000 miles on it," my friend countered.

 

"Run out the same numbers:  $47,000 divided by (100,000 miles less the 20,000 that are on it) 80,000 and you come up with 58.75 cents a mile.  So for a penny and a quarter a mile, you want to lose some warranty coverage and inherit someone else's car?  Thanks, but no thanks..."

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Obviously, this is a 'dream car' kind of discussion, but the technique works equally well with cars like Toyotas and Nissans. 

 

So the car buying recipe I have is really simple, but it makes sense:

Take the Cost of New Car A

Divide by expected service life.  I think 100,000 miles is reasonable.

This is your operating cost per mile for the new car.

 

Now, take the Cost of Used Car B

Divide this by the same service life minus the miles on the used car

This is your expected operating cost per mile for the used car.

People who look at the depreciation of a new car when they drive it off the lot are correct.  But, this further step - looking at operating cost per mile over the expected service life of the car, is a much better approach, in my view.  While it's true that you'd take a beating on front-loaded depreciation if you sold the car right away, when you look at buying a car as a long term relationship (longer than some marriages, come to think of it) then buying a new car is sometimes just as good a 'deal' as an older car.

 

On the other hand, if you insist on flipping cars, to 'roll in a dats da bomb' then a 1-3 year old car might make sense.  Or, just buy a stylin & profilin 'chine you can live with for a while and plan to drive out 100,000 miles or more before youi next one.

 

Something to ponder if you're gong car shopping. 

 

And in today's world, you might want to have at least one car that's big enough to live in.

 

Street Level Economics

Speaking of cars and such:

 George: 

 

A revealing 'man in the street' dialogue yesterday, while pumping  gasoline into my Honda Accord in suburban Chicago: 

 

A well-coiffured middle-aged man, wearing a Northwestern University  sweatshirt and driving a back-model, though well-maintained Jeep  Cherokee, flagged me down as I was walking to the register to pay for  my $20 worth of fuel (6.5 gallons? Dunno.)

 

He wanted to talk about the  collusion of the "big, bad" oil companies in driving up prices at the  pump (I was, admittedly, wearing a Wisconsin Badgers sweatshirt at the  time, so I presume he was thinking that I was a member of his March  Madness college basketball fraternity -- and, thusly, politically friendly to his P-o-V). 

 

Sparing you the details of the dialogue:  The summary belief of this very sincere, educated man's opinions  are that British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron,  etc: Must be (or should be) in the "America 1st" category.

 

My amicable  counter-argumentive mention of China/India/Indonesia's role in the oil  market and commodities pricing was met with blank indifference, at best. Why should they matter?  We're America! 

 

There's more here, but I fervently believe this is a litmus test.  Currently, Elliot Spitzer may be resigning governorship and the Fed  may be printing off another $200 billion to 'lend' into the economy  (and save it for the next 60 days) but, the educated,  SUV-owning/suburban man-in-the street isn't really listening and actually doesn't know to care at all.  Today's gas prices are far more important. 

 

Ominous.

Do you see any look of surprise on my face?  The republicorps and the democorps haven't won: the corpgov jingoists have!  You're either with us or against us!  We're....ooops, getting carried away with the programming there.  All that remains is trying to stay free for as long as we can and seeing what's coming, prepare as best we can for what's logically follows...

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Send snip and save and coping ideas/discussions to george@ure.net.

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Around the Ranch:  Babies and Typoos

There I was, quietly minding my own business - walking out to get the mail around noon Thursday - when I noticed one of the goats ("Baby") laying down in a strange place and licking...what's this?  A newly born kid!

 

This was like one of those "Girl didn't know she was pregnant" stories.  Oh, we knew this one was going to kid, but we thought more like two months from now.

 

I voted to name the female Doester (as she has the small all brown coloring as Buckster, born last Friday, but the naming committee overruled me. "Doester sounds to un-feminine.  I like Doeline." So that's what it is.

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A large number of people wrote to point out that I had missed the 'f' key a couple of times when referring to linguistic shift in the Thursday report.  An unintentional typoo, I'm afraid.  that'll teach me about staying up past my bedtime to do radio interviews, LOL.

 

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Thursday March 13, 2008

Lies & Defaults, Do-Overs, and Handshakes

Now that we've seen Spitzer Quits 'er, and with the banksters hounding their own for payment, as in the Carlyle Capital bailout talks apparently failing, everyday reg'lar humans who don't have private jets, but who do know what the price of gasoline from first-hand experience because they don't have chauffeurs and Secret Service teams to pump it, are asking really basic questions, like this one:

"Howdy...

Should I sweat my loosing credit rating if the economy is going to collapse?.;0"

Tough one!  There's no reason not to ask this kind of question, though.  After all, Americans are thinking in droves that we may have been lied to about (take your pick of as many as you want from this short list)

a) foreknowledge of the 9/11

b) attacks, the presences of WMD's in Iraq, c) the status of Iran's nuclear program,

d) the soundness of our currency/banking/trading/electrical/etc., etc., systems.

e) and the list goes on.

Worse, armed with even remnants of moral training from our youth, there should be continuing concern that the old saying "A fish rots from its head" could be applied in any number of state capitols, as well as what we call the District of Corruption.  As Lee Iacocca asks, "Where's the outrage?"

 

The workout of the debt (spun as credit) dilemma is seen on sites like "You Just Walk Away" and a host of tax site that question whether the Income Tax is legit, and so forth.

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I can't make those kinds of decisions for you - I can only make them for me.  I may not be a good source of advice because grew up in a highly ethical home in the 1950's and 1960's where divorce wasn't even discussed - people in that time made intelligent choices, and like golf, you just played it as it came.  No do-overs in my families circle.

 

Today, wow!  We scan headlines like "Will divorce become the norm in the future?"  Based on the numbers, that's a reasonable question to be asking.  Something deeper is going on.

 

From this, I infer that the meaning of words like "commitment" have morphed in their meaning over the past couple of decades.  The Canadian Goose-like "mate for life" concept is certainly toast, and along with that it should come as no surprise that the concept of "commitment" being replaced by "convenience" is popping up all over lifespace. 

 

Amazingly, at least to me (the guy with not enough coffee pumping yet) folks don't seem to take the time to study the implication of such shifts in language which are really manifestations of an archetype-level shift of thought.

 

It could be that I'm hypersensitive because of trying to figure out what different of concepts means in linguistic modelspace while trying to discern the future. Still...

 

It's not like the word "commitment" being functionally replaced by "convenience" is the only shift along this path, either.  It's happening with other words in the language as well. 

 

Take the word "default" for example.

 

Thinking back on it, I can't remember using the term until it started showing up in very early (think Vic-20 days) computer discussions where 'default' settings were used.  Then it slid over in my thinking to the money-brain where it showed up in the 1990's increasingly used in financial discussions.  Then it spread to the internet stock bubble/swindles to the point where "default" seems to just at us from every turn of the Debt Crisis.

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Comparing the headlines and a little history, I'd argue that lies, do-overs, and defaults are becoming a new global(ist) norm.  "Bond defaults to Increase in Europe as Loan Delinquencies Rise."  Yup, seems to be everywhere.  Lies, do-overs, and defaults.

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As we pull back the curtain a bit, on the real 'inner workings' of the world - that level at which design patterns become apparent -- it seems as though at least one layer of the onion is exhibiting schizophrenic behavior.  We have, on the one hand, banksters, governors and even presidents, touting their ethics, and then turning around and failing to meet their own standards.  And what happens?  Do-Overs.  A public win & nod and "It's OK..." 

 

So we get political dynasties.

 

Yet, while the PowersThatBe at the top have been busily tightening up the loopholes to ensnare 'little people' with things like the bankster backed "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005" to assure their revenue streams, the same standards seem strangely missing in the conduct of foreign affairs, wars, economics and everyday business; the recitation of shortcomings would be hours worth by itself.

 

Denial is thrust on us, too.  The PowersThatBe insist that inflation is running (as of January 2008) at a 4.3% annualized rate and that everything is 'normal".

 

We are taken as fools who can't divide an old price into a new one, move the decimal point two places to the right and behold the awful inflationary truth. 

 

Worse, when it comes time to elect new "leadership" the best and brightest seem conspicuously absent from the corpgov-duopolistic slates.  We're a choice of status quo 'a' or status quo 'b'. Gee, what do you think is an acceptable vote? 

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It's commonly understood that the kind of thinking that got us into our current predicament won't be the same thinking that will get us out of it.  We're on the verge of global collapse now, evidenced by a read of economics, environment, ecological, or agricultural evidence, and that waterfall sound becoming audible off yonder really is the edge of the financial earth that we're about [linguistically] to go sailing off. 

 

Whether it's an attack on Iran (May) or a big gob of something (terrorist/infrastructure failure/ economic crisis) or whatever that gob of dots in modelspace portend around October 5th, it's shaping up to be larger than 9/11 was in modelspace back in early 2001 is far ahead of the events.

--

Returning to the question at hand though, ("Should you worry about your credit rating?") I'd have to label that as a personal choice, but maybe helped along by the headlines.

 

For example, if we read that major corporations are about to recast their credit rating systems ("US States Revolt Against Muni Credit-Rating System") the old saying "What's good for the goose is good for the gander.  If major corporations can have their credit ratings whacked and survive, maybe us regl'ar folks can, too.

 

When you go search the news headlines for the term 'credit rating' you won't find much about consumer's credit ratings.  It's almost all about the PowersThatBe and their proxy corps.

---

Before you run out and renounce all of your debts, however tempting that may be, you might consider the future of credit.

 

Once we sail off the economic/social/and whatever 'edge of the world' this fall with change that could be greater than 9/11 (which you'll admit I think, changed everything about how we live) I would expect credit to return to more of a one-on-one kind of relationship.

---

In the last Great Depression, a much higher proportion of mortgages were made by sellers.  A person selling a piece of property would take a large down payment (40% or more - enough to assure that the buyer would not just walk away) and sellers carried notes themselves.  The aggregation of privately held mortgages into a whole industry was a natural outgrowth of what had been individual practices.

 

In the coming Depression/Collapse (or whatever it turns into) you might first ponder whether a 'credit rating' will mean anything.  If the power is out, the ATM's shut down, the mortgage business in utter chaos,  currency collapsed, and martial law because of some calamity or other, who's going to give a rip around an arbitrary computer number?  In that world a score of 780 would mean zip.

 

Perhaps, going in the positive direction, we discover "free energy" and suddenly the "electricity becomes too cheap to meter" dream we heard about in the 1950's and early 1960's from the nuclear industry, were to really come to pass.  In that kind of a world, we'd likely all be chipped and you credit score could be augmented by lots of other electronic 'scores' which would establish your values as human chattel to the PTB/corpgov elite.  A sort of chipped-caste system of worker bees and Rulers.

 

If your inclination is to say "as above, so below" and take a hit on your credit rating like the Powers are, it may (or may not) be of future significance, depending on how the future arrives.

---

One thing I'm pretty sure of: whether you end up living in a self-organizing collective (SOC) of displaced people when Diaspora shows up, or a continuance of the path we're now on, the one thing I would start being very careful of is the meaning of your handshake.

 

In an earlier time, before contracts were spewed in 50-page gobs from laser printers, the most important thing a man (or woman) had was their handshake.  I expect in a time to come, the importance of a handshake will return.  It's not here yet, but give it time.

 

In a Land of Lies, Defaults, and Do-Overs, the handshake and a look square in the eye remains portable and durable, depending of course, on the kind of person behind it.

 

Golden Gold

My broker JB called this morning with the news a few minutes ago - hitting wires now:  Gold hits recover over $1,000, oil above $110. 

 

My deflationist pal will get his bottle of win when the evidence of deflation comes along.  Wal-Mart, Chevron, and Big Dog Liquor up on 155 sure don't seem to offer any evidence of deflation yet.  And you know why, right?  Here's a hint:

 

The Memes:  Dying Dollar

No, the dollar falling below 100 Yen is not supposed to come as a shock.  On the other hand, it's just one more reason why $115 oil may get here sooner than later.  And a good chance of $150 oil by mid-summer say the time monks.

 

War  Drums/Banking

Source in the banking industry tells me:

"• Bank Added To OFAC List Treasury has designated Future Bank B.S.C. in the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (NPWMD) category for being controlled by Iran's Bank Melli and added its name to the SDN List. Information regarding the bank has been posted on the BOL OFAC page. "

OFAC = Office of Foreign Asset Control. U.S. persons are not allowed to do business with any of the entities on OFAC’s 322-page list.

First the “no-nukes” admiral has “resigned,” now this. War drums have resumed, no?"

Who Needs Science?

The EPA has announced a modest tightening of smog standards.  Sounds fine, but in the process they decided to go against the unanimous advice of their scientific advisory panel.  Science calls for a stricter standard...

 

Grand Theft Merger?

Electronic Arts is trying to buy up Take-Two (Grand Theft Auto).

 

GTA IV is due at the end of April.

---

Don't even ask if it will run on Vista, I've been getting enough email and ribbings on that OS as it is.  I'm still planning to hold out for V SP1 which I think ought to remained Vistahorn for the new kernel, but that'd be a marketing nightmare.  Still, renaming Vista to something else would make sense to me.  Call me a slow learner, if you must.

 

Southwest Cracks

38 of Southwest Airlines 737 are grounded for fuselage inspections.

 

Food Price Fallout

One can't help but notice that Nestle (largest food company in the world) is expected to beat its own sales forecast thanks to raising prices.  Like you wouldn't have noticed at the toll house...I mean supermarket.

 

World of Denial

A genuine cynic might be tempted to take note of the India police arresting Tibetan Independence Marchers and connect that with how with the Beijing Olympics coming, world diplomatic circles are too busy to notice.  Bread and circuses must be presented, eh?

 

The Runs: Foot in Mouth

Geraldine Ferraro is out of the Clinton campaign because, as one headline puts it, "She said Obama 'lucky' to be a black man."

 

Thanks Jeff

Thanks to Jeff Rense (www.rense.com) for a fine interview with Cliff and me last night.  We keep a low key mostly, but yes, that really is Cliff's last name...

---

A little sleep deprived, we'll get back to Coping and Around the Ranch tomorrow.  Meantime, another shot of joe please?

 

---

Wednesday March 12, 2008

Landry's Rally, Right on Schedule

This may turn out to be "I Told You So Month".  "And why would that be?" you're thinking.

 

It would be total tactless and immodest of me to say "Told you so!", but have I, or have I not been telling (those with little faith) that at least in the short term, I've been expecting a real barn burner of a rally until perhaps early-to-mid summer, and then a once in a lifetime chance to pile onto the short side of things and make what my kids would call 'mass bank' as we sail off the edge of the financial end of the world this fall?

 

I sent an email to colleagues and friend (I have one) yesterday with the subject line "Most Important Email of the Year?" and here's the gist of it:

 "Well, it has finally happened: Like the last lock in the tumbler, my trading plans for the balance of the year have just been confirmed with the very detailed technical picture presented by Robin Landry (below, and with chart attached).

Essentially, it says that what I’ve read as the “most probable” course from Cliff’s linguistic work, has picked up necessary technical confirmation. The Cliff Notes (pun intended) version of our personal trading strategy over the balance of this year will go something like this:

1. Between now and the anticipated fifth wave blow-off top which Landry envisions over the summer, we will slide in and out of commodity options in grains. Not only is world consumption in our favor, along with the new rust outbreak in Asia/Persia that came out last week, but world stocks are nearing lowest-ever levels and weather disruptions this year will push humans ever closer to famine. 2. We will stay out of stocks, even though a dramatic rally to 14,700 over the next several months may indeed (and by Landry’s work will) unfold. The reason for caution? Stocks generally far more ‘over-subscribed’ than are commodities. 3. Sometime in late spring, toward the end of May/first weeks of June, we will roll out of our long commodity options and will then slide into massive shorts in key commodities. This doesn’t mean shorting foods/cereals, nor does it man shorting the precious metals (gold/silver). What it does infer is that our short positions will be in the industrial metals whose use I think more likely to experience a precipitous collapse over late Fall and through Winter.

We don’t have any plans to unload our couple of ounces of precious metals because systemic collapse could be a harbinger of hard currency calls to come (e.g. backed by silver and gold). Pricing of silver in excess of $50 an ounce and gold over $3,000 may well be conservative outlooks, given the short-term inflationary or stagflationary pop.

The trick, of course, when we get into the Big Crash in the Fall, will be to exit positions and take up tangible ownership of good/property before the hard lockup of the financial system (ala the Bank Herstaat credit lockup in 1974) …but that’s a problem to worry about closer to the end of the play.

Landry’s work confirms the track I’ve been on since we started kicking this trajectory around (and trading on) since last July.

Nice - and honestly almost reassuring) to see it condensing so well out of the linguistic fog into a well-documented (and highly tradable) circumstance.

As usual, this is NOT trading advice – only my personal take on things and how I intend to trade it.

So is this the most important email of the year? Should be obvious before Christmas. Promises to be an interesting year.

---

Tuesday March 12, 2008

Money For Nothing Department

Quick...to the printers!  This just up on the Federal Reserve's web site (emphasis added):

For immediate release

Since the coordinated actions taken in December 2007, the G-10 central banks have continued to work together closely and to consult regularly on liquidity pressures in funding markets. Pressures in some of these markets have recently increased again. We all continue to work together and will take appropriate steps to address those liquidity pressures.

 

To that end, today the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing specific measures.

 

Federal Reserve Actions The Federal Reserve announced today an expansion of its securities lending program. Under this new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), the Federal Reserve will lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days (rather than overnight, as in the existing program) by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS.

 

The TSLF is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally. As is the case with the current securities lending program, securities will be made available through an auction process. Auctions will be held on a weekly basis, beginning on March 27, 2008. The Federal Reserve will consult with primary dealers on technical design features of the TSLF.

 

In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee has authorized increases in its existing temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). These arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to $30 billion and $6 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, representing increases of $10 billion and $2 billion. The FOMC extended the term of these swap lines through September 30, 2008.

 

The actions announced today supplement the measures announced by the Federal Reserve on Friday to boost the size of the Term Auction Facility to $100 billion and to undertake a series of term repurchase transactions that will cumulate to $100 billion."

File Under: RalliesBought

 

Shades of Irving Fisher

"Ure's gone 'up 'round the bend' on this one," you're thinking as the first sip of coffee and the 'net chases off the cobwebs.  "Who is Irving Fisher, and why do I care?"

 

Irving Fisher was an economist (Yale PhD) and he was published for things like his work on money and price levels.

 

He's also known for his famous observation about the stock market, made just a few days before the biggest crash (so far, but stick around a while) in the US stock market's history.  "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

---

I remind you of Fisher because of the headlines about today that sound eerily similar.  Here's a dandy assort of headlines around a single story:

"Economy weak but not enough for recession: report"

"Economists see US avoiding recession."

"UCLA Experts don't buy recession."

Is Ure wrong, and the whole rest of the (academic) world right?  Maybe - but only till this coming fall and winter.  Here's why:

 

The National Bureau of Economic Research is the qusi-benchmark in determining what a "recession" is and they have gone to some lengths to come up with a tight definition.  Essentially, you have to experience a decline in GDP over some period of time before a downturn in the economy is anointed with the "R" word.

 

In fact, the NBER has a whole committee process for looking at the numbers (largely government produced) and discerning what's a recession and what's not.  They have also documented their "Recession Dating Procedure" so that financial writers (like me, for instance) won't use the term too loosely. 

 

So, just what is a recession? 

"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

It's here that we encounter one of the fundamental issues with modern day economics; there's a time lag.

 

The goal of this web site (and the subscription-based companion www.peoplenomics.com) is to look ahead at a reasonable expected path for the economy in the future so that people can adjust their thinking, personal plans, and perhaps even their investment strategies, in order to ameliorate adverse impacts.

 

Economists, as a body, on the other hand, being precise, although seldom in agreement, wait until the GDP numbers (and a slew of other indicators) have been compiled before admitting the the "R" word has been visited upon us.

 

Or, to simplify the though process, around here I try to keep focused on whether that's a train coming down the tracks that might smack us if we're standing on the tracks.  Economists, being fact/number driven sorts, wait until the train wreck has occurred, see how many people were scrunched by it, and if the sc4runchees add up to so many, then yes, it was a train wreck.  Or, the "R" word.

 

The time lags can be substantial - and worse, misleading.

 

I'd offer the analogy to a regional power outage.  Think of a recession as the condition where a whole region is blacked out.  That's right, no lights,. heat, or air conditioning anywhere.  Economists, after seeing the lights off regionally for some period of time (two or three consecutive quarters ) would say "Aha!  This is/was a power outage [recession]!"

 

If you're trying to live a normal human life, and keep the air conditioning, TV, lights, and microwave working, the label long after that fact that this was a power outage is relatively useless information.

 

Our analogy gets murkier, however, if we experience a series of rolling blackouts.  Like the kind the California System Operator often imposes when California has more demand that kilowatts to sell its end users.  San Jose might have no power for some period, and then Walnut Creek, then Oakland, and so forth as the pain is spread around.

 

Observing these rolling brownouts, our country's brightest financial minds would adjudge there to be no power outage, per se, but we'd be in a period of "power softness" - and the analogy to what's going on presently comes into focus.  Think of the Housing bubble collapse as a blackout in one sector of the economy.

 

To carry the analogy a step further, suppose that the power company was actually jacking up the voltage to those parts of the region that were not presently blacked out?  This would be analogous to the economic distortions caused by bailing out banks, mortgage companies, SIV's and what-have-you's that would otherwise have failed had the voltage in their neighborhood (a/k/a money for nothing) been jacked up.

---

In the end, I suppose it won't matter whether what comes later this year and into next, and into 2010 will be labeled as a "recession' or 'depression' by those who study such things.  In the main, they're waiting for the train wreck and it's aftermath, counting railcars on their sides, tipped over engines, and that kind of thing, before saying for sure "Yup, that's a train wreck, alright."

 

On the other hand, seeing where (an even more importantly when ) the train wreck seems likely, well in advance, presents a rich opportunity for some of us to stock up on the goods that train was supposed to be carrying on it's way to economic destiny.

 

Commodities, Inflation Up

Crude oil futures rose to a record for a fifth day in a row - and over $109 a barrel.  My commodity options gain on the five 115 April calls I bought a week or two back was miserably small.

 

One has to look at the latest forecast numbers from the International Energy Agency ("IRA cuts oil demand forecast for U.S., developed markets") and wonder if they're not seeing one of those recession-driven declines in demand. 

 

Oh, oh!  There I go again, talking about a recession that's not official, again.

---

On the other hand, sitting on a few coffee call options in July and September seem to be bolstered by the headlines that "Consumers face a jolt as coffee prices turn frothy".  Music to my wallet.

---

In the grain options, I noted word that "Kenya: Spread of wheat disease sparks shortage fears"

 

And what's this?  The CBOT is increasing the daily price move limits of corn and the oilseeds?

---

then we have the whole undercurrent of inflation running amuck.  It seems that China's inflation rate has surged to 8.7% and much of it is attributable to food prices, so I don't see any reason to be selling any of my cereal options, or softs like coffee for a while.

 

Not only that, but it sets up the expectation, at least by me, that goods coming in from China will get a lot more expensive.  And speaking of the balance of trade wreck...

 

BOT Stable

Balance of trade was a bit wider last month, but only by what amounts to federal budget dust.

 

Another One Bites The Dust

For a while, it seemed like Elliot Spitzer would end up in whoever's democorp cabinet next year.  But, no, thanks to a prostitution ring, Elliot Spitzer seems to have become the latest example of "Do as I say, not as..."  Wall Street reaction here.

 

Israel's Expansion

While we're in what amounts to a 30-day cooling down period (don't bet on it lasting) in Gaza, interesting to note that the "UN's Ban calls on Israel to halt West bank Settlement Expansion".

 

Bombistan

More than two dozen are dead and over a hundred injured in a pair of bombings in Pakistan overnight.

 

Them Winds

We've been talking about the unusual winds this year - here's another case of it - with near hurricane force winds whipping the British Isles and more on the way.

---

Folks in the midst of Tornado Alley are preparing for what shapes up as a very bad year.  Take Kansas for example.

 

And you might want to bookmark this page (and look at the second chart down) as it's the government's reckoning of how this tornado season is going compared with past years.

 

As I've been saying since New Years, this could be a worst-ever kind of year and it seems to be off to that kind of start.  We just keep our fingers crossed and hope to be wrong.

.

(No snip and save section due to another Vista  blue screen of death minutes before posting)

 

---

Monday, March 10, 2008

Dreams, Reflections, and Rhymes

I spent a little time while doing chores and mapping out the schedule for the week ahead, wondering (in background) how many people are seeing the present day resonance with events of 30-40 years ago?  A reader picked up on my Thursday comments and sends this:"

"You said,

 

"I'll map rap as the new/reborn R&B. The Micro cars (Smart Cars) as the new VW's So where's the Kennedy analog?"

 

* * Gee, that's easy. All over the 'net, and on TV, people are calling Obama the "JFK for this era." And JFK's daughter and brother back him for President. So there ya go. "

Yup, just bigger than life, isn't it? Perhaps the whole 'return to the land' ('re-ruralfication') movement really is the hippy/commune period updated and retooled...

---

I promised last week that I'd seek counsel on this dream, reflections, and memories context from Trader Jim Goulding - an expert at how Generations fit together in puzzle-like fashion:  He graciously sent this:

"I appreciate George’s mention [last week] of my generational work. However, I must say that I simply follow the two gentlemen, Neil Howe, and the late William Strauss (Strauss & Howe). They truly opened my eyes to the recurring cycles in our society. I can’t encourage people enough to read their books. I highly recommend, The Fourth Turning.

 

I’ve taken a lot of their work and tried to put it into pictures and relate it to economic cycles too. George linked my generations page to his site in the article and here’s that link again if you’re interested, http://www.jamesgoulding.com/generations.htm

 

Once you get to that page, scroll down below the pix of their books and you’ll see an article I wrote titled, Generational Theory. It explains everything I believe about their work and much more. 

...

Concerning George’s article, on Thursday, I agree wholeheartedly with his assessment that we are seeing similar things from 40 years ago. We are at a half Saeculum. This is a very important time, for it’s a turning point. We are moving from a 3rd Turning (Unraveling/Fall) to a 4th Turning (Crisis/Winter).

 

Everything is in place to allow it to happen, as it has occurred 7 times since 1435; Strauss & Howe’s book The Fourth Turning unequivocally proves this. Many of the things predicted in that book (written in 1997) have come true already. That applies for their book Generations, too. Generations was written, in 1991.

 

If you want to be convinced about the validity of their predictions, read the chapter in Generations titled, The Millennials (b 1982-2003?) Everything they wrote about that generation has come true. How did they know? They knew because they discovered a cycle. The cycle works. And…we are in for a societal cycle called Winter, due-up anytime now.

 

My personal prediction is it will begin, in 2010. George thinks we are in it already. The point is not when, it’s ‘What are you going to do to protect yourself and your family?” Because if it’s not here yet, then it’s coming very soon. That’s why George does what he does and I do what I do. We are getting the word out about something we feel passionately about.

 

 Here’s a quick graphic from Strauss and Howe’s book, The Fourth Turning that explains the Turnings/Seasons

Turnings Explanation:

Each Turning represents the following	1st Turning  (High/Spring)	2nd Turning (Awakening/Summer)	3rd Turning (Unraveling/Fall)	4th Turning (Crisis/Winter)
	"…an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays.	"…a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.	"…a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants.	"…a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with the new one.

 

In his article, George, wrote about replaying themes now that happened 40 years ago. In generational theory he’s eluding to the 2^nd Turning which took place 1964-1984, in America.

 

We are currently in a 3^rd Turning/Fall, which began in 1984. The last Fall was 1908-1929 and the last Winter was 1929-1945. So, you can see why Winter sends the proverbial shiver up generational theorist’s spines.

 

It makes complete sense to me that George would get the feeling that the clock’s been turned back 40 years. That’s because we are on the societal-fence between Turnings. We are moving from Fall to Winter. Times they are a changin’…again.

...

For the Silent generation (b1925-1942) they remember 1969 as their Turning year. That’s the year that sticks in their minds as the pivot point. Silents are a bit slow when it comes to noticing things. The actual Turning took place in 1964 but this behavior fits the Silent generation to a ‘T’. They are slow and methodical.

 

The average age of a Silent, in 1969, was approx., 35. For GenX (b1961-1981), today, it’s 36ish. Now, it’s GenX’s turn to feel the change. They’ll feel it quicker though. That’s their behavior pattern. GenX anticipates change, compared to the Silents who wait for it to happen.

 

Xer’s can feel it coming. They know there’s something very negative lurking around the corner, in this boomer (b1943-1960) led Senate, Executive branch, and Congress. Xers only hope is that the Silents on the Supreme Court keep things in balance as the Boomers run wild destroying America’s foreign policy and economic system. (Side note: How many presidents have there been who were from the Silent Generation, b1925-1943? None. McCain would be the first.)

 

I’ll leave you with this: Again, I ask, how did Strauss and Howe predict so many things? Because they found a cycle. The cycle works and you best get ready because Winter is Coming.

 

Take care,

Jim Goulding

www.jamesgoulding.com

---

If you're thinking this morning's first headline and first dose of brain food for the week sounds a lot like the title of Carl Jung's Memories, Dreams, Reflections, that'd just be a coincidence --- or not.

 

Linguistics: Right Noun, Wrong Verb?

Wow:  I am in complete awe of the linguistics work of Cliff over at www.halfpasthuman.com.  He's been saying for almost a year that in Spring we would see calls for 'early elections' and boy, has that ever popped out all over the place.  A check of Google's news search engine finds:

• "Rift over EU support for Kosovo pushes Serbia into early election."

• In India, "Pranab rules our early elections"

• South Africa may have early elections as media there ask "Is it too early to put the lame ducks out of their misery?"

• Even small Fiji is being swept up in the meme with "Sir Paul calls for early election"

 

But, of course, the most widespread phrasing associated with the early election linguistic is the potential for re-voting in Floridah (which earned that deliberate spelling in political discussions after their presidential fiasco) and Michigan.

 

Could it be that modelspace cacked on a verb?  Could this be the "early election" controversy/MSM/mainstream media swirl that's been coming for many months, or might we still see "calls for" early elections coming to the USA and not just Serbia, India, South Africa, and Fiji, and whoever else climbs on the meme?  Murky stuff, this...

 

The Runs: Memeering Headlines

You know what's fun?  Not taking the elections too seriously because they are, after all, little more than the proxies of the big business consortium that President Eisenhower called the military-industrial complex, but which has grow to include pharmaceutical giants, banksters of all ilk, and the whole globalist elite.

 

I thought it would be instructional for a Monday to sit back and simply review some of the verb-principal headlines to see what kind of impression mere fragments of headlines seem to offer.  I'll show you...

"Democrats kick..."

"Clintons push..."

"Obama accuses..."

"Clinton stakes claim..."

"Obama wins..."

"How Clinton camp justifies..."

"Is Obama a victim..."

Interesting, is it not?  The radical linguistics fellows could probably make soup out of this, but the point this early in the day is just to notice how the 'flavor' of such phraseology creeps into your thought processes below your perception threshold unless someone draws your attention to it.  A dandy case of macro-programming of the peeps in progress...

---

Come to think of it, Politik USA is a special class of society-level recursive macros, which as  it continues to run, concentrates ever more power in the hands of a ruling elite.  Splendid!  Just what the Framers had in mind, I'm sure.

 

Short Takes Department

Bank Failure

A small bank in Missouri is scheduled to reopen after being shuttered last week by the Feds. 

---

Seems to me the regulators don't seem to have much problem citing "financial mismanagement" when it's a small bank...but they are strangely mute when it comes to calling the foreign money bailouts and Fed printer bailouts of big Money Center Banks what they are.  It's the same disease (greed) just packed in the ultra-jumbo-deluxe size. 

 

Oh, right, "too big to fail" makes them immune from such labels? Of course, how silly of me...

---

So I just keep watching the Bank-Implode-O-Meter and the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter in shock that none of the layoffs ever seem to show up in corpgov reports - which insist, among other things, that there is still a construction industry and that home loans are being made.

 

Hello?  You getting this?  Dead banks walking...

 

Debt Call

Now we're reading that the Carlyle Capital margin call could whiz past $400-mill.  The way these stories come out, I'd guess we'll hear $500 million by tomorrow or Wednesday...

 

No Grain, Much Pain?

Events catching up to linguistics as the NT Times headlines "A global need for grain that farms can't fill".  The linguistics boys are wondering why the PowersThatBe are putting seed banks in order...do they know something we reg'lar folks don't?

 

Posts De-Mapped

Google has managed to stir up a little concern in the Pentagon.  We'll keep you...er....posted.

 

Reverse Mortgage Warnings

Sounds great on the surface...sell your house, get money, live in it till you die.  But, as NPR is reporting, there's a growing fraud problem about...  Gee...fraud...how about that?

 

Bordering on Civil?

Hugo's there at the border Chavez has reopened diplomatic ties with Colombia.

 

Extreme Weather

Midwest cleans up after a crappy weekend.  And this morning we've got a line of thunderstorms which might stir up tornado alley later in the week.

---

Meantime, I can't help notice that the "Global Warming" crowd is not taking kindly to headlines like this one:  "Climate Skeptics Reveal ‘Horror Stories’ of Scientific Suppression." 

 

It's OK, I understand why:  No global warming would mean no carbon credit trading and gosh, what about all those conferences and causes?  No thanks.  I'll just let the two sides duke it out and cover all bets with more winter clothing when it goes on sale this spring (we will have a spring, right?) and an extra bottle of twelve of SPF 2000.  Have fun.

 

Superman's Glasses?

A new kind of surveillance camera can see through clothing. I see...

 

Markets:  Oh Goody!

"It's so much worse than you think" opines Richard Gibbons.  Friggin' great.

 

I wouldn't say that - and I have penciled in a 'bounce' floor for Peoplenomics subscribers in the ChartPack this week.  But really, how bad is it?  The Employment situation maybe looks a little weak, and oh, so what if home equity is under 50% and the lowest levels since 1945 - that's last week's "news"

 

What we have to look forward to this week is the Trade Imbalance tomorrow and the CPI(fairytale) figures on Friday, which won't mean a damn thing because policymakers don't eat or use energy:  They mutter "core rate" ignoring food and energy and proceed to do what they're quite good at: solving the wrong problem by promoting off shoring of jobs and the whole lot of it while resolutely and straight-faced telling us of the Strong Dollar myth. 

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Lately, when I look at the shadow M-3 rate over at Trader Bart's site, and see it's now north of 18%, I look at the grocery receipts Elaine brings back from shopping and hear her comments.

 

"See this can of chicken broth?  It was 88-cents two weeks ago," she informed me.  "Now it's a dollar."

 

OK, what's a little 13.6% inflation in two weeks?

 

Still, this week's government figures will be another chorus of the band playing on as we live out the financial version of Titanic.  Enjoy the last dance.

 

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Coping: Silly Time

I assume you've seen the stories about how Daylight Time doesn't really save energy?  As if we need daylight savings time to screw up our lives - most of us (and a good portion of the UK) are already suffering some form of sleep deprivation due to money worries.  So as long as we're all up, let's just stay and work for more for corpgov!

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I don't want to sound overly cynical here, but maybe this is the best CONgress can do to invent a new industry.  I'll admit it's a little better than war, for sure.  And, it does mean plenty of work in software departments changing code. 

 

But, as long as they are going to be messing about with time, why not just have random changes of time?  It already happens to me -- plenty.  I run out of time for this, or there's not enough time for that.  While I don't think we need government messing with clocks, I'm sure there's a Time Lobby somewhere that pushes such things.

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Send snip and save ideas/comments/ ways to get along better in life to george@ure.net.

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Around The Ranch:  The Kids

Its early and I haven't been out in the pouring down rain yet to look in on the boy-girl goat twins born to Nan(cy) Goat on Friday afternoon.  (Pictures coming).

 

Elaine has named them:  The all brown boy goat has been named "Buckster" and his female wombmate has been named "PlayDoe".  Being exceptionally smart critters, the kids quickly figured out that the black plastic feeding pans warm up in the sun and provide a first-class snoozing area:

 

 

The most interesting thing about the Boer goats is that they seem to have personalities that are almost like dogs.  They seem to be easily trained, have a good sense of play and curiosity.  Best of all, they're pretty much self-tending and they're not asking for an allowance or cells phones...yet.