---

Reader Note: Updated Daily!   If you don't see this page updated, hit your "Refresh" button (F5 in MSIE) 
This page is also mirrored here and may be available unblocked in some corp/gov offices

 

Reader Note:  There will not be a Saturday morning edition of UrbanSurvival or IndependenceJournal because of two projects requiring time on task.  One is a very special edition of Peoplenomics which this weekend not only explores the concept of 'software defined manufacturing companies' but which also launches a new web site to facilitate mass customization and micropreneuring. Look for it at the usual posting time Sunday afternoon.  The other time sink is far more mundane: Adding a small  10 by 12 covered porch to the house on the north deck.  But not to worry, UrbanSurvival will be back on Monday barring tornados, floods, or other Acts of Universe.  Now, where's my coffee?

 

Fancy Nuclear Footwork

While much of the speculation inside the Beltway continues to focus on the possibility of a neocon inspired attack on Iranian nuclear facilities before the Bush administration leaves office, there's a new twist to the Israeli raid on Syria last September.  Specifically, Syria is denying reports about that the North Koreans had been working with Syria to be build an N-plant - a charge which Syria vigorously denies.  On the other hand, South Korea, never missing a beat, figures the charges may hold water and is calling on the North to get out of the nuclear business.

 

Last time I looked at the linguistics, the indications were that the Middle East would 'go hot' in the August/September timeframe, so all the footwork going on now may be leading to something before we get to the big shift due to start working its way through the economy around (shortly after) October 7th.

 

The International Herald Tribune has pictures of what it headlines "Bush administration releases images of Syrian reactor."

 

For now, Bloomberg reports that "North Korea talks may survive Syria Report, U.S. Says" but common sense says that when you've got a country with millions of starving people, and they see a chance to make some money selling nuclear technology, they shouldn't be trusted - just common sense.  Arguably, however, starving the North just drives them to more desperate sales so it's a tough policy issue.

 

Growing Hunger Pressures

It's not like North Korea is alone - the global hunger meme continues to build, too.  "UN food agency needs hundreds of millions for hungry" reports this A.P. today.

 

Although predictive linguistics have been warning that 'encounters with scarcity' have been headed our way for years, it's hard to conceptualize just how bad things will get as the year goes on.  As you know, the longer the lead time on events, based on linguistic analysis, the larger the events seem to be (impacting at the archetype level) when they arrive. It's been building for more than two years now...

---

The economic dimension to the problem can not be overstated.  "Price rises push UN food body costs up near 40 pct" advised a Reuters dispatch.

 

Behind the headlines are even more dire developments which are not yet surfacing in MainStreamMedia.  Here's an email example:

"Hi George, You encouraged us yesterday to drop you a note about unusual price increases, etc. We have a friend in our church group who works for a local farm supplier. He told me that last year they were selling skids of fertilizer for $1000.00. This spring they're selling for $5000.00. Honest! Farmers are cancelling their orders like crazy. He's afraid he will be laid off if it continues."

Farming being an economic enterprise, farmers find themselves facing an important math problem this year:  How much food for how much yield at what kind of price?  Gone are the days of 'load up the fields' to maximum output because soaring input costs are really starting to bite.  That will likely mean lower outputs later in the year, which means what?  High prices, do you suppose?

---

Then we have the weather to keep an eye on.  Weather around the country seems to now be running cooler than normal after a hottest ever year in 2007, and "Rains put corn planting behind schedule in Kentucky".  Not enough to get all worked up over -- yet.

 

Grounds for Change

Starbucks is in the midst of a companywide review of operations because of declining profits.  "Starbucks Revamps Entertainment Unit" seems to mean that CEO Howard Schultz is bringing the focus back to the core business - which makes sense to me...

---

A couple of other interesting coffee headlines:  "Vietnam April coffee exports down 23% on year at 100,000 tons." and "Coffee may prevent breast cancer, says study".

 

About That Rally

The Consumer Confidence numbers are due out this morning, but the mantra around Wall Street is that stocks are headed higher - at least that's the pre-open buzz.

 

Someone youi know (me, silly!) has been telling you he expects a rally going into summer, and sure enough, despite the ups and downs of the week, the Dow is ink position to put on another weekly gain if a decent rally can be put on through the close.  A check of the historical data over at Yahoo Finance shows last Friday closed at 12,849.36 yet for all the hype and jitters we've suffered through incessant drone of the money honeys and talking heads, the Dow is less than a point from that at the close of action on Thursday.

 

I figure any market that can shake off serious headlines like "Many state appear to be in recession" and "New home sales plunge to lowest level in 16 1/2 years" is going much higher.

 

More important to me is how the second layer of bad news - relating to earnings - has been shaken off:  "Microsoft slides after sales through doubt on PC Demand" and "Honda profit plunges most in 10-years on Taxes, Yen."

 

And I'm hearing that a certain largish bank has it's IT department readying for a big round of layoffs in the next couple of weeks.  That might stop the stock market's advance.  Question is, which side of 13,000 will it be on when the pink slips go out.  More when I can.

 

Dollar's going up and that has creamed the precious metals this week.  I reckon "What goes up..." but when?  I continue to hold my metal options but still eyeing a roll forward to longer expirations than July should the opportunity present itself...

 

Get It While You Can Department: Taxing The Net

The headline is simple: "N.Y. orders large web retailers to charge tax."  Hoping to generate $50-million this year, New York's motives are pretty clear.  Coming on June 1st.  If NY can make this work, look for other states to follow suit. 

 

But before you drop a new HDTV onto your bank card, remember America is the land of Lawyers - and this could end up in court as it's debatable where a sale takes place on the 'net:  Is it done at your home or office where you click, or is it done at the server-farm 10-states distant?

 

The idea is still percolating in other states, but in one (Florida) "Internet Tax dead. Again." 

 

Tax Holiday

It's things like the lack of sales tax on the internet that have prompted states like Tennessee to offer a Tax Holiday - Tennessee's this weekend.  As least for three days, brick and mortar operations will be on an equal footing with the etailers.  But then comes Monday and we're back to the tax dilemma again...

 

Eyes on Oil

A refinery strike looming at a Scotland refinery operation could force a shutdown on a key North Sea oil pipeline.  "Minister warns over petrol shortages as oil pipeline set to shut" and yeah, I expect this won't lower the price of oil...  Another pipeline bombing in Nigeria, too.

 

Don't Try This At Home Department: Stuntman Injured

Problems on location for the new James Bond flick being filmed in Greece...

 

--- snip and save department ---

 

Coping: Linux Moves Ahead

Linux may not yet be sporting a visual theme like Vista's Aero, but Ubuntu 8.04 continues to develop the look and feel of a really competitive OS.  Reviews with headlines like "Ubuntu 9.094 Brings Power and Polish to the Linux Desktop" should give you a hint.

 

Crime May Not Pay, But....

It may be a get-by option for some people.  A reader offers this:

"Easy solution for the food and housing issue: When I was in Ireland two years ago, I learned that during the potato famine, citizens were committing minor crimes, so they could go to jail and be fed, rather than starve on the outside. In a modern-day version that we have a Mess ask this  illegal incarcerated here in Oregon on sex crimes, who requires $25,000 a month in kidney dialysis. The state of Oregon has graciously stepped up to pick up the tab for this, (for the duration of his very long sentence), through our statewide insurance program. It's Oregon's own "No illegal alien left behind" program. What a country, it just gives you goosebumps when you pay your taxes! So, just regard the prison system as the final safety net and if the stuff really hits the fan we can always rob a candy store and check in for three squares and a cot, with free medical and dental care to boot!"

Other readers have been sniffing around the same concept:  "How soon before we bring back debtor prisons?" wonders one.  Just think!  Why, we could open our own forced labor camps!

What a marvelous way to onshore production, huh?

---

Speaking of concentration of power in the uber classen, I assume you caught the story of the "Billionaire to set up a magazine for snobs".  Robbing from elsewhere?  Being just an enterprising Plebe, I've been secretly working on business plans for "Wage Slave Weekly" - a sort of comic book version of Peoplenomics...

 

Thanks, Doc

My friend Dr. Pete Mickiewicz ("Millennials and the Popular Culture" ) has been watching what seems like an inverse relationship between virtual worlds and the real one.  In particular, he's sighted a blog which explains how the economy is Second Life is picking up while the one in here and now is faltering....

Key quote: "...Still, the pattern is hard to miss; as housing foreclosures go up, and the consequences ripple through the global economy, metaverse spending goes up, too..."

When he's not sending emails, Pete can be found at Poppyland in SL...

 

Fewer Racers?

Its only anecdotal, and I'm sure lots of people will show up by race day, but this Talladega note from earlier in the week is of interest:

"This is race weekend at Talladega International Raceway this weekend. Anyone that would like to study emergency evacuation should come observe, since normally a city of abut 250,000-300,000 is assembled between the track and Interstate 20 starting early in the week, and then the entire mess is disassembled and evacuated between dawn Monday and rush hour Monday evening. Not this weekend though. I was on my way to the Incinerator in Anniston from my home in Trussville this morning, and noticed the crowd is really down. Normally by Wednesday, the entre field is filled between the track and the highway by Wednesday, for the start of qualifying races tomorrow. Today, the crowd seemed really thin compared with the last few years, and most of the camping spaces were still open. I will let you know tomorrow whether the crowd stays depressed this year. Right now it looks like the gas prices are having an effect.

.....

Further Data On the way home last night the campground surrounding Talladega Int. Raceway are less than half full, and on the work this morning little changed. What is normally a sea of RV and various camping tents and the like currently shows plenty of green unused parking space. Estimate is from 1/3 to ½ full at best."

Don't know how this compares with previous years, but make me wonder..

 

Corn Syrup "Not Natural"

Just as the linguistics predicted, High Fructose Corn Syrup is getting trounced in headlines.  "High Fructose Corn Syrup Declared Unnatural" says a report this week.

 

Quick...looked surprised.  Ain't having a time machine dandy?

 

---

Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net

 

---end snip and save section ---

 

Peoplenomics.com

Double Issue: Waves of Change & An Ultimate Contingency Plan

Two items on the agenda this week:  First up is a lesson on how to gauge the winds of change blowing through the housing market and how to build your own local housing index to help you spot the bottom if you're looking to time buying of a house or picking up a rental unit or two.  Then, a special report from a reader who's a retired nuclear industry emergency planner.  He details a layered approach to personal emergency plans, based on high to low consequence triggers.  Fresh coffee in hand?

 

          More For Subscribers         Subscription Information

 

Tell Your Friends About This Site!

If you know anyone who is interested in preserving the Constitution, fighting usury from banksters, and shaking off consumer hypnosis, tell them about this site.  Click here to send 'em an invite...

 

Mr. Cheap's Tricks

There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such.  It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is  our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less.  Still just $10.

----

Last week's report is here.    If for back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

----

I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

---

Thursday April 24, 2008

Active Denial Department: "The Word for 2009"

I won't steal the thunder from the predictive linguistics team at www.halfpasthuman.com, but they have recently picked a single "word of the year" for 2009 -- a word which will summarize how life will 'feel' in '09.  While I won't say what "IT" is, a collection of the morning's headlines might get your brain pondering in the right direction:

• News analysis: "Fuel Choices, Food Crises, and Finger-Pointing"

• "US shops ration food for first time"

• "UN: rising food prices are silent tsunami"

• "Chavez, allies create $100m food plan"

• "Year of poor decisions created food crisis: FAO"

 

If you're guessing 2009 might be summarized with a word like "starvation", you'd be wrong.  That's only one concept that pushed their selection of the "word of the year".  Sampling more headlines will give you a sense of the breadth of things:

• "Starbucks hit by housing slowdown"

• "Number of homes entering foreclosure hits record in California"

• "Illinois AG, Working Group says foreclosures outpacing assistance, call for solutions from Feds and Loan Servicers"

• "Homerless begin moving back into Ontario Tent City"

 

If you're limiting your thoughts to terms encompassing food and housing, get over it!  Keep your head open w i d e  because there will be a lot more to it.

• "Oil gains on US inventory fall"

• OpEd piece: "We must ration Gasoline"

• "Gasoline and distillate inventories decline"

• "Gasoline prices take a toll on vacations"

 

Food, foreclosures and fuel -- are these road enough markers?  No...:

• "Angola: Portuguese environment minister jets in"

• "U.S. environment scientists report political meddling"

• "The War against the Environment"

 

I don't need to mention that tornados are still way ahead of trend, do I?  And there are other markers, to ponder:

• "Global PC shipments seen falling in 2008 on weak economic environment - Fitch"

• "Beef has impact on the environment"

• "The big turn off: Could you drink, bathe, and clean using just 20 litres a day?"

• "Indebted Brits forced to change lifestyle"

 

This last one is a HUGE clue for the aware.  What the time monks have noticed in the interviews done lately is that while everyone 'gets' that 2007 was the year of emergence and 2008 has us seriously into manifestation, not one interviewer has yet felt compelled to ask the 'software time machine' boyz what's the Word that will sum up 2009.

 

Curious?  Indeed it is:  Maybe down at some kind of deep archetype level, people aren't interested.  Or, more likely to my way of thinking, because are living in a state of active denial about what's ahead. 

 

Or, a little delicately, we stumble across THE most difficult questions facing those who can see some distance into the future.  Boils done to the hardest question of all: "If you could see the moment and circumstances of your own death, would you?"

 

It's not like 'mass death' is coming in 2009 - nothing so extreme - yet.  But for several billion people on this here third rock, life will not be what it used to be by the end of 2009. 

 

Still not clear? Need another hint?  How about this one: 'Diet programs' will likely disappear into the dust bin of history.  "Rising gas prices are changing consumers' tastes" says the Globe and Mail this morning. The word is clearly behind stories like this one, too.

 

Maybe the concept will gel as you head over to Costco to pick up some rice....

 

How Big is Tupi?

Lots of different ideas in the oil industry about how big the two big oil finds (Carioca and Tupi) are.  Good sampling of guesstimates here.  What is not discussed in depth is time-to-market which will be the biggie...

---

Oil industry expert/financier Matthew Simmons' latest paper "Is Ocean Energy and Idea Whose Time has Arrived" is definitely worth a read.  Besides being a leading expert he's also the prince of PowerPoints which makes for easy data absorption....

 

Global Coastal Thoughts

One of the highlights of 2009 (or later as there's some drift to linguistic predictions depending on how big something is) is the descriptor set going to Global Coast Event.

 

Aware readers are starting to collect web sites and articles like these:

• "Living on borrowed time"  (Cumbra Viejo)

• "Mega Tsunami video"

• "Giant undersea volcano found off Iceland"

 

Sunspots/Global Cooling Connection?

Good read from "The Australian".  Why do I expect Robert Felix will be giving a knowing "Yes..told you..." to this?

 

Meantime, the ski season in Idaho has been extended into May.

 

Mystery Lights Solved

Road flares and helium balloons are the source of the latest round of 'mystery lights' over Phoenix, say reports.

 

Mass Layoffs Rising: Story-Chart

Worth a thousand words - but if you need the words, too, then click the chart.

 

 

Ford Profits

A swing to a $100 million Q1 profit sounds good.  Sustainable?  We'll see.  Meantime, Toyota has beaten GM.

 

Not so Durable, Not so Goods

Another argument that the country is already in a recession as Durable Goods Orders fell for a third straight month -- although people in Washington seem to choke on telling it like it is outside the Beltway.

---

Wait a minute!  Have I just gone full circle back to the "Active Denial Department" headline that started off this morning's report?

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Green Acres II

Although I had no shortage of friends and acquaintances that thought I was a raving loon for taking a pass on further adventures in the six-figure corporate rat race in order to move to the wilds of East Texas and build something of more than passing value, I was encouraged this week to see that the kind of life which we've been building has continued to crop up in the most unlikely places.

 

While it may be easy to pass off advice from writers like Barton Biggs, the idea of a 'something else' approach to life hit the Wall Street Journal's "Page One" this week with a piece "Green Acres II:  When Neighbors Become Farmers."

 

While we've been encouraging folks to plant small gardens to help offset the soaring price of food regardless of where they live, based on the predictive linguistics that have been pointing to 'counters with scarcity' and such, the headlines around restrictions on rice purchases and now this on the Journal's Page One, well, even the most dunderheaded reader would have to be hard pressed not to see at least the outlines of a sea-state change to modern life here.

 

If you've been a long time reader, I hope you'll forgive us being four-years ahead of the macro trend (again).

 

More Plumbing Parts

Still more things to add to that blossoming hardware store in your basement or garage:

"In your pipe recommendations you need to include the water heater connections. I have plastic pipe and water from the well. The plastic pipe was connected to a copper flex pipe to the propane heated water heater. After about 8 years, on the cold water side, the thin wall flex copper pipe sprung a pinhole water leak. I replaced the leaking pipe with a flex stainless steel one. As I only had one pipe, I did not change the hot water side...which leaked the same way a year or so later.

I would also get extra turn off valves that are used under the sinks and toilets. When I was repairing the taps ( faucets) on the bidet and toilet, my valves would not shut off as i found out later, the bed was corroded due to the well water..the whole house has cpvc pipe."

Damn Gnats

That time of year:

"We've just had a huge hatch of gnats here and it has inspired me to share some information that might be of use to you and your readers.

It is my experience that yarrow, which is basically a weed, will repel gnats. I've read I should use the flower, but I use the whole plant.

Also, catnip will repel mosquitoes.

To use both of these plants as repellent, pick a branch or sprig, crush it up a little, and rub it on exposed areas of skin. It is a good idea to rub catnip on places like across the shoulders where a shirt pulls tight and skeets can bite right through the fabric.

I toss a lightly bruised stalk of tansy in my mailbox to keep out wasps, ants and spiders.

If a time comes that one can no longer buy repellents in stores, these would be very useful plants. Especially when things like West Nile Virus and Malaria are around."