---

Reader Note: Updated Daily!   If you don't see this page updated, hit your "Refresh" button (F5 in MSIE) 
This page is also mirrored here and may be available unblocked in some corp/gov offices

 

Waiting On Daylight

If I get everything on my weekend project list done, it will be a miracle.  Like most days, this one starts off with a cup of coffee and a short planning session, but without the interruption (back-saving at that) of consulting work, I tend to spend a LOT less time in front of the PC and a lot more time on the business end of power tools are on the tractor.  Today's list includes burning trash, hooking up my new dust collector system in the shop, bush hogging a fence line for a new field for the goats which means multiple rolls of 4x4" goat fence at $200 a pop, but better now than wait for steel prices to go up even further.

 

On the business end of power tools, there's the finishing off the porch roof on the north side of the house where my eyeballed rafters are awaiting final assembly and placement.  The new steel roof panels I picked up yesterday ran $125 for six panels.  I really am trying to live by the things I report here, and the comments on the major hardware coop passing on word to its member stores that higher steel prices are in the pipeline from China was not lost on me; we're pushing up all our plans that involve steel as fast as we can get them scheduled and done.

 

Being on the business end of a hammer is a good way to work out frustrations.  Like the frustrations with Wall Street which is planning private meetings with Treasury officials to try and undo the push among congressional democorps to do more than the Street wants about the Housing Mess.  One reader suggested that I "...let everyone know that we are all safe in the arms of our corpgov..."  He politely didn't use the term 'bozo's' although he clearly wouldn't mind borrowing one of my hammers, either.

---

The headline this morning about waiting for daylight has a particularly poignant double-meaning in the UK where it's being reported that British "Bank bail-outs to be kept secret" - meaning that the Bank of England is following the marching orders of the PTB while at the same time giving new meaning to the term 'hush money.'

 

The Runs: Jerry Day Nails It

If I had time, I'd do a long dissertation this morning on how the national MSM (MainStreamMedia) has been screwing over the Ron Paul campaign and marginalizing him to promote the corpgov slate of tweedle dumb, dumber, and dumbest.  But, since daylight is fast approaching, go watch the Jerry Day video instead - which nails it better than I can at this hour.

 

'Them Winds'

The spring continues to run well ahead of previous years in terms of tornado activity.  The latest headlines mention that "Twisters tear up parts of 4 states; 7 killed in Arkansas."

 

Markets: Traders and other Indicators

I'm expecting the Dow to pause for a while in here, or plain old recede, thanks to a technical divergence from the Dow Transports, which were down on Friday two-thirds of a percent.  Dow Theory supposes that where go the Transports, so goes the rest of the market sooner than later.

---

Meantime, I'm more than partly perplexed by the report that "Futures Trader Bet on dollar gain for first time since 2005."  I mean that makes sense as far as it goes.

 

Where it doesn't go, however, is to the story that "Gulf states may end dollar pegs, Kuwait minister says." or this one: " Dollar peg causes 18% of U.A.E. inflation, Business 24/7 says".

 

Seems to me that someone's got it wrong - seriously wrong, but we should know the answer within 6-months.

---

The best guess from a Saturday morning in May with a second cup of coffee going and daylight starting to appear over the trees, is that the dollar might well rally (or hold about these levels in here) through the August Olympics in Beijing.  That will appease China which is holding gobs and oodles of US paper.

 

In fact, nothing would please me more than for the price of gold to come back down to year-ago levels around $700-750 because that would be when yours truly would trying to figure a way to trade more paper for gold, along with other things that will be needed after the ME war(s) this summer into fall and the resulting economic collapse to follow from October to January.

 

Wheaties

Those wheat options I'm holding might come back to life yet: A May blizzard shuts down parts of South Dakota - weather is wonky for sure. 

 

The other story about wheat that has me considering investing in boxes of Wheaties is word that "Leaf Rust becoming Problem in Kansas Wheat".  This means our report Friday about Kansas wheat looking sickly may have legs to it - and this is one which could drive wheat futures skyward.  We'll see, huh?

 

Trashing Terra Department

I've mentioned that this was in the works before, but it's now here 'in your face' real: "All salmon fishing banned on West Coast."  We're going to have to put in a bigger safe for those collector-grade tins of canned salmon we've been investing in.

 

Witch Video?

The headline asks "Is UFO a flying human?"  Roll the video out of Mexico for yourself and tell me it doesn't look like a flying...witch!

---

Enough!  Subscriber access problems to fix, inbox to clean, nails to hammer, fence lines to bush hog.  See yah Monday!  Unless, that is, you're a Peoplenomics subscriber, in which case, we'll be talking about an Extinction level Event on Sunday afternoon....

 

Peoplenomics.com

Micropreneuring and the Future of Mass Customization

A number of conferences have been held recently dealing with the general topic of “mass customization”. The main thrust of mass customization is that because an ever-increasing portion of manufacturing is software-driven, intuitively it should be possible to easily customize virtually any product. However, in some ways mass customization is encountering the same kinds of obstacles to widespread adoption that hamstrung the infant videotext field when it arose as precursor of the Internet. Therefore, to help identify obstacles to widespread use of ‘mass customization’ it’s useful to review why videotext didn’t ‘catch fire’ while the internet did. We’ll also discover why the evolution of software-defined radios (SDR’s) may help business evolve into what I call SDMC’s – software defined manufacturing companies.

 

          More For Subscribers         Subscription Information

 

Tell Your Friends About This Site!

If you know anyone who is interested in preserving the Constitution, fighting usury from banksters, and shaking off consumer hypnosis, tell them about this site.  Click here to send 'em an invite...

 

Mr. Cheap's Tricks

There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such.  It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is  our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less.  Still just $10.

----

Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

----

I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

---

Friday May 2, 2008

The "George Rally" Continues

The long string of emails sent by dyed-in-the-wool bears from a couple of months back when I posted my expectation that the market would rally going into summer before collapsing in a heap this fall, are just about ready to be deleted because the market is siding with Ure, not the bears.

 

Headlines like "Wall Street mood swing: Gloom gives way to (premature?) optimism" pretty much hit the nail on the head.

 

In the "What goes up and what goes down" department, please observe that as the dollar goes up (for however brief a fling here), the price of oil is coming down.  "Oil prices lower in Asian afternoon trade on strengthening U.S. dollar" report those capitalist tools over at Forbes.

 

Coupled with the short term bounce, we have to pause here and size up the employment report out today from the Department of Labor:

"Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in April (-20,000), following job losses that totaled 240,000 in the first 3 months of the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The unem- ployment rate, at 5.0 percent, also was little changed in April. Employment continued to decline in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade, while jobs were added in health care and in professional and technical services.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons (7.6 million) and the unemployment rate (5.0 percent) were little changed in April. A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.8 million, and the jobless rate was 4.5 percent. Over the month, the unemployment rates for most major worker groups--adult men (4.6 percent), teenagers (15.4 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (8.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.9 percent)--showed little or no change. The jobless rate for adult women decreased to 4.3 percent in April, nearly off- setting an increase in the prior month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.2 percent (not seasonally adjusted) in April. "

How real are the numbers?  Well, the CES Birth-Death model contributed 267,000 jobs including 45-thousand new jobs in construction and an eye popping 83,000 in leisure/.hospitality and 72-thosuand in professional & business services.

 

Under employed in the U-6 table improved from 9.3% last month to 8.9% in the current report, all of which ought to fuel a skyrocket Dow today.

 

Meantime, a lot of business minds will be pondering the Microsoft-Yahoo deal asking if time is running out, or if things might go hostile.

 

Still Fighting Banking Panic

Maybe we should invent a new word: Banic - or maybe Pank! - a banking panic, which is what the Fed and European central banksters are trying to avert.  Word up.

 

Whining About Gold

Several people have written to me asking for an explanation of 'falling gold prices'.  I have said this before, but it bears repeating.  I am not planning to sell any precious metals until after the crash this fall and into next year) so please relax.

 

A trip to the chart repository over at Kitco should make a simple point.  Click the display for a historical gold price from May of '07 and May of this year.  Last year we were around $670 an ounce on this date.  This year we're staring at $852 and whining about it.

 

Let me refresh your thinking:  This is a 27% gain year on year while the market hasn't done bupkis by the Dow.  Fer heaven's sake, get over it.  I'm still holding my silver options  too, although it's a long shot.  I did buy a couple of September wheat calls this week, though.  Wonder why?  Read on...

 

Food Shortages Growing?

An email from a reader in the Midwest causes me some concern:

"Last night at the daughter's horse riding lesson the price of horse feed came between my wife & the stable owner/riding instructor. One of her friends in Kansas said that his winter wheat looked great, but there was no wheat in the wheat plant heads (kernel/seed-I don't know the correct term). He reported that the grain miller that they normally use said that they are having trouble getting any wheat to prepare. Same thing from many Kansas wheat growers; plants look great, but no wheat to harvest. This is a family business that has been going since early 1900s. They made it through 2 world wars & the dust bowl. They are not sure if they can survive this year if they can't locate some wheat for processing. Nothing to mill, nothing to grind. That doesn't bode well for later in the year.

I couldn't find anything online about this, but the riding instructor is pretty mainstream & doesn't seem to be a conspiracy buff. She said that the lack of harvestable wheat, when the plants look normal, has never been seen before."

This report touches on something I have already started to work on for Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend.  But, when I tell you there is growing urgency to starting a garden, I'm not a kidding...

---

The commodities market apparently isn't worried as "Wheat falls below $8 as investors expect rate cut will be last" says one headline.  But, remember, fundamentals matter. and I am wildly bullish on grains and food stuffs.  This from the guy who told you in 2005 that he was buying silver at $7, remember?

---

Overseas, people are a little more aware.  "Afghans face basic food shortages as wheat prices soar, UN says..."  And concerns about rice prices have the Philippines government working on a food self-sufficiency program.

 

My latest hot investment tip?  HERITAGE SEEDS!!! When governments and megacorps are opening seed vaults does that tell you something, or are you completely dumbed down?

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Feeling Lost?

"Ready to go feed the goats?" I asked Elaine.

 

"Yeah, but let me put on some lipstick, first..."

 

This is an example of why men sometimes get a sense of being 'lost' around women.  Turned out that E was not dressing up to feed goats per se; she was trying to keep her lips from getting dried out.  "Oh, that makes sense" I admitted, there being only one old goat that matters around here.

 

But that got us on the topic of "feeling lost" and her experience earlier in the week on the 'rabbit run' with the neighbor lady in a nice pickup equipped with a GPS system that seems to be the rage these days.

 

GPS has its place, no question about it.  Coming into Shilshole Bay Marina when we were living on the boat under 100 foot visibility with the radar and GPS going was a cinch, just like shooting a CAT 3 landing is a cinch with a HUD and lots of training.

 

But why everyone seems to have lost their sense of direction lately is beyond me.  True, on a dark rainy night in the East Texas outback where street signs are well hidden, they have their place.  But in a big city where people have lived more than 10-years?

---

One of our major adjustments to life as Texans was to understand that signs like "Highway 155 turns left here" tend to be placed on the far side of the intersection where you should have turned.  In California, just for contrast,  freeway exits are often posted thousands of miles before the off ramp.

 

Perhaps its because some California exits, like the Barham St. exit coming up the hill from Hollywood, requires moving across as many as nine lanes of traffic.  In East Texas, there may not be another car around for weeks, let alone when you should be turning.  On the other hand, sign placement may constitute a local spectator sport that helps determine who is really from Texas, and who is not.

 

I can hear it now... "See that feller went sliding though the light ;sideways with his brakes locked up?  'nother outsider, I reckon..."

---

Still, the need for GPS in a vehicle escapes me. Three years ago, when Elaine and I went out to Burbank for a studio project, we managed to find our way around LA without a GPS and only minimal use of the 2-meter radios.  You just looked at the hills and that was that.  If you had no hills around, you had slipped out of the San Fernando Valley, and were either in Orange County or Bakersfield.  But that was simple to sort out, too, because there are 31-million exit signs for Magic Mountain on the way to Bakersfield.

---

Elaine's favorite and easiest to learn town was San Francisco.  Again, done entirely without a GPS.  "When you've got water on three sides, how lost can you get?" she figured.  True that.

 

And she didn't have any trouble with Boca Raton, Florida, either.  "Too far north and you're in Palm Beach, too far south and it's Miami.  Too far west and you're in the Everglades, and too far east and you're in the Atlantic."  Easy, obvious, and no GPS needed.

---

Fire fighters, back in the old days, before massive computer dispatch systems used to have a tradition of 'walking the district'.  The firefighter would literally walk every street in a certain part of town, to learn where fire hydrants were, look at various buildings and consider the fire risks of each.  Mentally they'd ink through how a 'reverse lay of a two and a half'; by the second company in would work here or there.

 

It also gave time to think about things like the curious distribution of streets named after trees in downtown Seattle;  Alder, Pine, Fir, Cedar, Olive, and such.  There was also time to come up with mnemonics for how streets were arranged.  College boy Walked up the Hill to get a Plum might remind someone at Engine 13 that northbound from the station on Beacon Hill the streets are sequenced College, Walker, Hill, and Plum...

---

In most cities, there are simple conventions for street names which are somehow closely held secrets in today's world.  Avenues tend many places to run north-south while streets run east-west.  Boulevards and lanes, meander; that kind of thing. Obvious when someone points it out to you, which the GPS salesman won't.

---

Many cities have streets with 'last names' that give even more clues.  Streets often have a prefix before the street number, so in Seattle for example, a an address on NE45th St. would be an east-west street in the northeast quadrant of the city, while a nearby 15th Ave NE would have the NE as it's last name, so that if you didn't know that 'avenues' run north / south, you might still get the pattern.

 

Of course city planners, being only occasionally rational blessed Seattle with 1st Avenue North and 4th Avenue South, which are roughly between the NE and NW, or SW and Lake Washington because the SE streets are off in King County somewhere down around Renton or Kent.  Nevertheless, the fact that enough people could find their way to Boeing or Microsoft (or PACCAR if we find ourselves in Renton) attests to the superfluous nature of GPS systems in cars.

---

Naturally, I don't expect the education system to have taught you all these things because it's much more in the interest of wild-eyed technologists to sell you a GPS, but a few intrepid explorers, like Magellan (no relation to the GPS maker), Columbus (passing relation to the City of) and Lewis and Clark managed to get around without GPS units.

 

Given that people need to do a little more thinking anyway, I am unabashedly amazed by the number of GPS units sold with 4.5" screens that also do tricks like play MP3's.

 

All of which gets me back to where I was when I started explaining this this phenomena: Feeling more lost than ever.

 

Bad Kitty

Tuna for the cat?  Bad idea...

"Hey George – after reading Thursday's column, wanted to pass this info along to you:

“An occasional tuna treat for your cat is generally harmless. However, if a large part of the cat's diet consists of tuna--or if the cat is fed tuna exclusively--some problems are likely to arise.

Tuna does not contain significant amounts of vitamin E, for example, so too much of the fish can lead to vitamin E deficiency, resulting in yellow fat disease, or steatitis. Symptoms include loss of appetite, fever and hypersensitivity to touch, due to inflammation and necrosis of fat under the skin. Felines who are fed too much tuna can develop other nutrient deficiencies, too, because most de-boned fish are lacking in calcium, sodium, iron, copper and several other vitamins.

Mercury, frequently present in tuna, also presents a potential danger. "At low levels, this may not be a concern," explains Bough, "but if tuna is fed nearly exclusively, it could pose significant problems."

Another reader pointed out that because mice eat vegetables, a mouse is really a balanced diet for a cat. Dozens of emails about this.  Pusscilla and Zeus have been assigned the duty of pawing through them all.

 

How Many Calibers, II

My notion that three ammo sizes would be sufficient for most folks drew a lengthy reply from a fellow farmer/rancher with 60-acres up north of us, but the pertinent part is this:

"Now I’m going to preface this by stating I have 10 years USMC experience. So I might be a little bias. But….

The AK’s and the SKS’s, which I also have, 4 AK’s and two SKS’s, are good out to about 150 to 200 yards with a competent marksman. The 12 gauge is a must, mine is a magazine fed auto-loader, but my wife is the one that uses the 9mm and I have a preference for the .45’s. When out and about, depending on what I am doing at the time, I usually have the .45 Para hanging on my hip, whereas if I’m on the tractor I use a shoulder harness with the .45 Glock. Too many times while gathering low growing crop like squash and cucumbers, I have discovered a snake or two getting out of the sun, and needed something handy to send the little critter to the great beyond. A couple of time while cutting hay, looking up and seeing a coyote, or wolf watching me from a small distance away, a quick couple of rounds flying in its general direction kind of discourages him/her from hanging around. One of the oddest was when the wife was trimming the hedges around our driveway she reached in to remove the clippings she just made and discovered a snake intertwined within the bush. Since she used to be a LEO, her training and reaction times are pretty good and after a couple of rounds with the 9mil dispatched another slimy disgusting critter to the great beyond.

What my main point is though, that when hunting for deer or such, which this will be my first year ever of doing so, most of the shots will require a shot of about 300 yards, give or take a few yards. The AK’s and the SKS’s even with a good scope will be stretched to their limit. Now I have the AK’s in both the 7.62x39 (hers), and 7.62x51 (mine), (the 7.62x51 is the .308 equivalent). But for what I will use this winter will be a .30-06. These rifles have a good flat trajectory and range, with good ammo, of accurate shots out to 500 yards with a good scope and a little practice. Now I do not recommend going out a spending $1000 dollars on this type of rifle. I have a WWII Mouser 98 chambered in .30-06 with a medium quality scope that I picked up for less than $300 dollars. After going through about 100 rounds to get to a comfortable feel for the rifle, and a tube of Ben-Gay for the shoulder afterwards, I have now the confidence to drop my first Bambi this season. Will field dress, then take her over to Detroit to the processing plant there and have a standard processing package done. This will stock my freezers with Venison, Pig, Cow, and Duck. And should completely take care of all meat needs for a minimum of two years.

Now all this is just to pass on that maybe one more firearm would be applicable for your needs. Actually two, a good .22lr/mag loaded with snake shot to take care of those pesky chicken snakes which will eventually end up in your chicken house eating the eggs that we both prize so much. Shot one yesterday that measured over six feet long. This is the second of the season so far. Last year shot four. Plus two rattlers, one water moccasin, and one I’m not sure what one was, but it was a snake and that is all that mattered. Dead. The .22lr loaded with snake shot will get the snake in the laying box without leaving holes in it. The only other critter that I had to address in the coop was a rather large coon that managed to pry one of the boards loose and gain access to the coop. A nine mill will not stop a large coon at night when you’re in your pajamas and a little hyped up and trying to get a shot to a vital area. Where as, the .45 with snake shot will make it one shot, one kill. Yes you might have to patch a few small holes the size of bb’s, but that is a simple chore. With eggs at $1.75 a dozen, and chicken prices going up dramatically, constant vigilance on the coop is becoming a prime priority."

Good points, all.  So maybe a .22 and a .50 with a scope for occasions when 'reaching out and touching' might be a good idea.  Haven't been looking hard, but 9 MM snake shot would likely do more damage than 22 with snake shot.

Retirement Planning

Check out US News' "10 greenest places to retire."

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around The Ranch: Playing on 20, II

Thursday afternoon with a few chores and consulting things 'caught up' I decided to pay around on the 20-meter ham band again.  Contacts included a fellow in central Cuba, a guy named Antonio in Somma, Italy (near Naples he informed me), and a guy near Phoenix.  All of which is not to remind you that there are ways to communicate globally without phone lines - as you already knew that. 

 

What's going on at the moment is I'm trying to figure out how to 'thin down the herd' of radio gear.  One piece of gear is my favorite for voice modes, the Icom 746 because it has decent DSP capabilities, while the digital modes seem most enjoyable on the Icom 735.  The Icom 718 goes in the truck one of these days when I get to it, but that leaves about half a dozen other more or less complete ham stations (mostly classic tube types) as excess.

 

The tube-type gear has been fun just to brush up on trouble-shooting and alignment.  But EMP considerations aside (which make one good all-round tube type transceiver desirable), the question comes down to sorting out which ones to sell off and which ones to keep.

---

It's not unlike the problem of a car collector.  Once you have a basic cheap to operate car for getting back and forth to the office, or to run to the store in, which of the collectable cars would you keep?  Sure, you could drive an exotic car to the store for a gallon of milk or loaf of bread, but the whole experience could be tainted by worrying that someone should open a car door into it, or it would be eyed by some envious person with a criminal heart.

---

I keep telling myself that one of the secrets to life is that you can have anything you want, but your can't have everything.

---

A rational decision would be to thin the herd down to only two solid-state HF radios and one 5-band tube type radio.  Any extra money ought to go into a solar power set-up which would be a multiple use investment.

 

Ultimately, I expect this will turn into a 'spin the bottle' kind of decision.  Do I like the early Drake twins?  Oh yeah.  But, if you look around the net you can find pictures of another 'keeper' pair, the Hallicrafters SX-101 Mark III, and the companion transmitter, the HT-32.

 

Each of these pieces of equipment has a certain attribute that makes it great, but then there were things about an old Buick Dynaglide that would make it hard to part with, too.  Or an old Springfield or Enfield rifle.  Hard to beat an AK-47, an Icom-746, or a Toyota Corolla with a stick, for getting the basic job done under a wide variety of conditions.

 

If you have ever come up with a strategy to thin down a car collection, gun collection, radio collection, or a what have you collection, please send it along.   There are a zillion different strategies, by weight, availability of parts, investment/collector value, and all the rest, but it's one of those rare decisions that doesn't have a 'snap' answer, at least not yet anyway...

 

---

Thursday May 1, 2008

It's Called a "Suicide"

With word out today that DC Madam Jennifer Palfrey has reportedly committed "suicide" near Tarpon Springs, Florida.  I want to recall for you a quote from this web site the week ending May 5, 2007:

"Palfrey has some large number of the "powers that be" by the fabled balls and these are not nice people to have coming after you...risky business, this."

Officially: "Suicide".  Officially... It will be interesting to read the accounts of family and friends...

 

401(k)s Redux

A number of readers have reported in that they, too, have received the email making its rounds on the net about a supposed plan to tax windfall profits in such things are 401(k)s.

 

Further research points to current email as being a retooled version of an earlier 2006 email that made its round as showed up on the urban legend kind of sites like Snopes:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/pelosi.asp

 

On another topic, a reader took me to task today over referring to myself as a latter day Luddite:

"You wrote: Think of me as a Luddite, but I'll just shade my bets, thanks.

Rather than allowing "Luddite" to be an insulting sneer, let's not forget that Ned Ludd was right: the dark satanic mills did destroy the artisanal way of life."

The decision to participate in a 401(k) is not a bad thing.  The good news is that if your employer has a match, you can effectively get a little more pay for your work.  But, fundamentally, I'm still bothered by the question:  Do you trust the folks in Washington not to change their minds?

 

401(k)s:  Who do you trust?

Mayday! Mayday! was almost this morning's headline, but such writing would be alarmist and would no doubt result in my email inbox being trashed by people who are under the widely pandered belief that markets are rational, even though PhD level investors can't reliably figure them out. 

 

Why, if people only understood that markets were fear and greed-driven casinos where people's whole financial lives are regularly gambled it would probably tarnish the patina of respectability that Wall Street has so carefully wrapped itself in, helped along the way by politicians who are the galaxy's consummate blame-shifters.  But, let's not try to eat too much of this at one sitting.

---

There's a simple enough way to look at markets, and as usual I'll remind you that things should always be simplified as far as possible, but never too much, as Albert Einstein advised.   Bearing this in mind, the market is a money exchange.  Money comes in and money goes out.

 

The money coming in is from people trying to 'invest' (e.g. save for the future) either directly with their own trading accounts, or by having someone else do the dirty work for them, as in mutual funds and what have you.

 

Another important input side is the profits generated by companies.  These forces bid up share prices.

 

The output is when people pull out dividends or sell shares to rustle up some dough for a new HDTV or whatever.  Another big outflow is the cost of running the casino but most folks pretend that one doesn't exist.  But who pays for all those investment ads on the tube?

 

One of the input/output channels alleged to have tax advantages is 401(k) programs, although I've been openly skeptical of the honesty of politicians who have said "Trust us, we won't tax these..." 

 

...yeah, sure, right....

 

Knowing the truth can sneak (unsupervised) out of the Beltway once in a while, a piece on the op-ed page of the  Lake Country Echo up in Minnesota caught my eye this morning:

"Guess who wants to tax your 401k and other retirement accounts now? The answer is Nancy Pelosi, who wants a windfall tax on all stock profits, including retirement funds, to benefit the 12 million illegal immigrants and other unemployed minorities so they can experience a higher standard of living like the rest of the Americans! "

Mind you this is in a smallish Minnesota publication, but it showed up in slightly altered form in yesterday's email, too.  I haven't been able to track it back to anything other than this op-ed piece, but the notion that a 401(k) could be taxed at some point down the road on the flimsiest of pretexts doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility given that no one is safe when Congress is in session.  Give me a national emergency of some kind and nothing is safe.

---

Admittedly, this is alarmist for sure because just a couple of months back an article on the CNNMoney site asked "Are you a sucker to invest in a 401(k)?  subtitle: One theory marking the rounds these days holds that 401(k)s are tax traps.  Here's why that's wrong."

 

While the article goes through some reasonable number crunching, it doesn't address the two main gripes I've had with the 401(k) system since I opted out of one back in 1976, paid the penalties and decided to take a different path.

 

Since that 1976 withdrawal date, the Fed and the deficit spending loonies have managed to whack the just under 75% of the purchasing power out from under the dollar.

 

If you don't believe me, go to the Minneapolis Fed's truth revealer/inflation calculator here and enter $100 and 1976 in the right boxes then put in 2008 and see how much value has been lost.  The answer: $100 worth of goods in 1976 costs $378.91 today.

 

If I can be trusted with a calculator this early: The dollar has only 26.39% of the purchasing power it had in 1976.  Amazing, huh?

 

Curiously, people who pour money into 401(k) programs aren't worried about such things.  They seem to have an inbred confidence that a) politicians will stick to their promises and that b) stock/mutual funds/paper assets are somehow the safest/best/most reliable ways to hold wealth into the future.

 

Being an economic fundamentalist, I've always viewed things like housing, food, and good health, not to mention precious metals and investments in your own skills, as the primo investments of life, with paper relegated to a subordinate role as a mechanism to get hold of the real sources of wealth and independence - - namely owning some of the means of production.

 

I'll keep a sharp eye out to see if there's anything more to this 401(k) stuff than just pieces here and there.  But, like we used to say around the newsroom, "Where there's smoke...."  Besides, given a choice between no debt on the one hand and a pile of debt and a pile of paper on the other, I'll choose the former every time.

 

Sad Market Marker

The Dow closed April yesterday 12,820.13 according to Yahoo Finance.  It closed the last day of April in 2007 at 13,062.91.

 

Hand me the calculator again: That means the Dow dropped about 1.8% year over year.  True, some stocks paid dividends, but to get there, you'd have to pay commissions, or let the paper pile up as digidollars in an account somewhere, trusting a) government won't slap some fat tax on it down the road when you really need it and b) that the whole digidollar system is secure from terrorists and EMP and all the hundred and one other assumptions society makes as it bases all human activity on the reliability of computer chips and power plants.

 

Think of me as a Luddite, but I'll just shade my bets, thanks.

 

Government Keeps Growing

In the continuing efforts to keep a good face on things, so that not too many people see through the paper asset hoax all at once and cause a bank run or such, thereby\ keeping the game going a little longer, government has taken to hiring more workers lately.  Wipe that feigned look of surprise off your face, would you?

 

If you ever took ECONomics in school, you probably ran into the 'shop-keeper economy' theory.  Basically, it's the question of how an economy works if you just have people buying and selling things to one another.  Like the shoemaker selling shoes to the bread maker, and then bread maker turns around and buying shoes - that kind of thing.

 

What the schools today are NOT TEACHING is that government expansion is essentially just a scaled-up, rebranded shopkeeper economy:  Government hires more people to govern, and therefore taxes more, and therefore needs to hire more people and in turn...well, you get the idea.

 

Think of a town where everyone is a policeman and makes money based on how many tickets they can write against their fellow townsmen - that's a dandy, huh?  Splitting them up among different departments obscures the facts but not the fundamentals.

 

If you think I'm joking about this most vicious of circles, flip over to the Wednesday USA Today article that reveals "Hiring Leaps in Public Sector".  Bigger government, sure, but where?

 

Connecting the dots here, a headline like "Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008" means that government spending must increase in order to set up more of what are essentially more shop keepers.  In a remarkable fit of convenience, we have the democorps coming along promising everything but the kitchen sink in the way of social improvement and you know that's going to take more what?  Government hiring and and that will in turn justify higher taxes.  WASF (we are so ------).

 

Not convinced?  OK, besides making plants that God put on earth illegal (why God's not been locked up for including marijuana, coca bushes, and opium poppies in in His Creation project which looks like a cover for a drug operation escapes me) I notice today that in an effort to expand the nanny State's powers to intrude on your life as a human animal on a once free planet, "New Jersey Lawmakers Consider Tax on Fast Food".   This is in the same vein as the recent attempt in Louisiana to legislate how low mean could wear their pants.

 

Is the world nuts?  (Don't answer that - the answer gets more obvious the more you read more...) 

 

China Makes Bank

The result of the Fed printing money (one reader picks nits by saying the Treasury prints it, but I'd argue the Fed's super loose money policies and renting the currency out at 6% per year interest to the government and creating money out of gobs of debt paper is what effectively prints it in a broad sense) is that American banks are losing their real financial power.  Headline this: "Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study".  Bet you can't name three - or even two of them - ok...even one then....without reading the article.  That's how dumbed down we Americanese are.

 

Slow Learners

Just suppose for a moment that people who hold office are a little slow on the uptake.  How long ago did OIF start?  Just today we're reading how the "White House admits fault on 'Mission Accomplished' banner". We are ruled by quick-thinking geniuses.

 

Welcome to the Club

Amidst the current economic decline, "Fewer Latinos immigrants in the U.S. sending money home" reports the IHT.   This still more proof of what a great Nation we are: Think of the monument: "Creators of the equal opportunity depression."

 

Auto Logic

OK, here's my economic insight of the day:  With headlines like "Record sales expected for Grand Theft Auto IV" would that explain why real car sales are down?  It's cheaper to pretend to steal a new one on the PC than go indenture yourself for six years down at the brick & mortar dealership?  The Minneapolis Star-Trib reckons that "Fewer can spare money to buy cars in flat economy"  OK, in a flat economy then, but, what about this one that's in decline, I wonder?

 

Oh, THAT Decline

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has issued its Personal Income and Outlays report for March this morning - I've bolded the important part in case you're still sleepy:

"Personal income increased $38.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $29.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $42.9 billion, or 0.4 percent. In February, personal income increased $58.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $50.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $11.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income decreased less than 0.1 percent in March, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in February. Real PCE increased 0.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent.

"Has decreased less than"?  How cute!  Fine spin, just fine...  Isn't the old saying "The harder I work, the behinder we get"?  That rushing water you hear is the edge of the financial world we're sailing off shortly...

 

Guaranteed War Department

This is like holding up the sign "Bomb Here":  "Iran ends oil transactions in US dollars."

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Surviving

Wired (the publication, not the coffee side effect) has an article "Survival gear that's just crazy enough to work..." that has generated some buzz (poorly formed pun intended...)

 

Here Kitty Kitty

Same packages, less in them at the store?  Yup...

Short Packaging - I know this was mentioned a while ago, but I have noticed something recently. I stopped feeding Kitty cat food and switched to canned tuna, because he likes it, and it was cheaper than brand name cat food.

However, he eats a can a day, so I go through a lot of them and I have noticed recently that the amount of water I drain off has increased. Haven't done a precise measurement, but it used to about an ounce in a 6 ounce can, and I swear it's about 2 ounces now - same brand. Another example of 20% less in the same package?

Your cat is eating better than 1-billion people.  Tell the cat to get off his fat but and catch mice. 

---

Send snip and save entries to george@ure.net.

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch:  Our First Whaling Expedition Sale!

On Wednesday I revealed our plans to make a gazillion dollars by offering to allow hunting of exotic and rare wildlife on our 30-acres here in East Texas.  I'm just pleased as punch we have may have our first sale - a Whaling Expedition!!!

"Dear George:

Would like to make a reservation for two in mid-July for your advertised whale hunting expedition, in the 3 acre pond you will have finished and stocked by then. While the relatively small size of the pond and large size of the game could make it appear unsportsmanlike (some might even compare it to shooting fish in a barrel), I can assure you that we would start with small bore spear guns to make the contest more fair, and just see where it went from there.

Once my son and I have bagged our trophy whale, we would need to use your cleaning table to gut, cut, and package the filets. My son is an avid environmentalist, so I am certain he would enjoy the opportunity to see nature up close. He is very scientifically oriented and he enjoyed our whale watching trip so much, I am pretty sure he would enjoy the nature aspect, plus he would learn a lot about handling a chain saw, making soap from ambergris and lard, candle making, meat salting and preservation; in short all those skills he will need for self preservation in a bad economy.

Not interested in anything on the endangered list as we would of course like to keep things legal.

Please advise on any extra costs such as use of your chain saws, weight scale, tractor to hang and dress the whale, plus other incidental expenses. BTW, Does UPS come to your ranch for pickup? I would rather not hassle with taking all those one and two pound packages to the post office for shipping.

We are looking forward to your response; $1,800 for the day sounds like a pretty darn good bargain with the price of salmon what it is, should be some spill over from that crowd looking for something more reasonable. I'll be sure to tell the guys down at Dew Drop Inn about your offer. Fess is really into b'ars, and I think he said something about Lemur sirloin if I am not mistaken. Good luck on your new enterprise; we are looking forward to confirmation of our reservation at your earliest possible convenience.

Dear Reader/Whale Hunter,

The whaling pond attraction on the inland sea here at Uretopia Ranch may be in trouble.  A letter from an otherwise respectable architect up in the Big D received Wednesday (perhaps coincidentally just after bars opened) explains the issue better than I can:

"Hi George,

This is in response to your ponderings over building a pond on your land. I would do it and I would do it now. First let me explain the do it now… In the last several years there have been numerous water districts, boards, councils, etc. formed around our great state and all of them intend to tell you how and when you can use your land/water and they will probably even levy fees and/or taxes to do so. This applies to wells, new wells, creeks, streams, watersheds, ponds etc. You want to get your pond built before some the new restrictions and or guidelines limit your plan. I would build your pond as soon as you can. I live in Dallas but we have some acreage in Montague County up near the Red River. In 1995 I met with a local dirt guy who explained to me about the “County Extension Office of the Texas Soil Conservation Survey”. He said they would do the engineering of the dam for free. Of course with me being a good capitalist and conservative, this “free” stuff made no sense to me. I looked into it and sure enough the gentlemen in the County office explained that they would rather have valuable engineering input to build the damn right rather than let some local push up an inadequate dirt dam that might give way in the first big rain and reap substantial damage downstream. One of the field agents came out and walked the thick brushy area with me and said “No problem, call me back when you’ve got the brush cleared.” Eighteen months and many bonfires later he came back out and surveyed the area. He took all of the data back to his office and generated a design as well as a quote for yards of dirt to be moved. The contractor based his bid on the design and yards quoted. I don’t recall how many yards it was but I paid about $4,000 for a pretty substantial damn. It took the guy four days to build it and I ended up with a very deep (25’+) one and a half acre pond. The County Extension Offices of the Texas Soil Conservation Survey are typically still located in the same building they were back in 1995 but now they are called NCRS – “Natural Resources Conservation Service” that is a branch of the USDA. The last I heard they are still designing dams around the State for free. There should be an office in your county. I stocked mine back in 1995 with Florida strain largemouth bass, channel catfish, redear and bluegill. Thirteen years later my little kids are pulling some huge fish out of there. If you have any questions please let me know, I’d be glad to point you in the right direction."

Elaine and I have kicked this around and have concluded that opening in 2009 with the exotic animal hunts and whaling expeditions may be a bit premature.  Would you by chance be interested in signing up for our newest revenue generating idea, the Uretopia School of Heavy Equipment Operating?

 

Sincerely (or very nearly so...)

 

G

 

---

Wednesday (Fed Day) April 30, 2008

Fed Decision: Print Some More!

The Fed rate decision is out:

"Release Date: April 30, 2008

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco."

And stocks celebrated by punching up (at least briefly) through the 13,000 level before pulling back a bit - I expect that the market will close over 13,000 though...

 

Web Bots:  Probable Power Pandemonium Prequel Presents

Back on March 16th, the linguistic run from HalfPastHuman (ALTA 1308-Part TwoB) had an interesting note about the "Pending Power Pandemonium".  With exclusive permission (link to www.halfpasthuman.com required)  to leak a bit of it out here, here's an extract:

"Wonder why the price of diesel is rising faster than gasoline or other petroleum distillates? Well the data suggests that this is due to the [military/army/navy] purchasing large quantities of [diesel fuel] in anticipation of prices for light sweet crude reaching $120/140 soon, as in this Spring. The aspect/attributes that we had in 1008 and earlier ALTA series reports which were interpreted as a [temporary for about 6/six months regional power outage] have now firmed up around the idea of [fuel competition] at an international level which brings about [steeply scaling prices] such that [magic/key/significant numbers] (*such as $120 to $140 per 40/forty gal barrel) being reached which [forces/causes] the [power generation facilities] within the USofA to go into [rolling blackouts] and [brown down days]. These are showing up in modelspace now as though there is some small level of [visibility] pending, but the main [visibility] summation increases do not show up until [summer], which is to say, past the June solstice.

 

The idea coming across is that a [key price] level is reached and [pandemonium] within the global markets is [launched]. This in turn causes such huge increase in fuel costs, both directly for generation facilities, and in the transshipment of fuel (coal, et al) that generation plants are affected nationwide. This leads to a [brief/temporary] period in which [military bases] are self-sufficient, but that within [6/six months] there is a move toward [national grid allocation days] in which the [civilian populace] in some areas is faced with [power rationing]. This is shown as a [hidden/obscured] way in which to provide the [military] with [power/electricity]. Though the data suggests it will not be [hidden] for long."

So it's against this expectation set from modelspace that we're sitting back with a cup of coffee pondering the meaning of the power outage that impacted Venezuela's largest cities on Tuesday afternoon.  It's got the oil/energy connection, it's in the Americas, and there may be more outages to come.

---

As I've explained in the past, interpretation of the linguistics can be dicey if there happen to be two events of more or less similar archetypical descriptors that pop up in a read of the future.  In the case of earthquakes, the best example was the linguistic set that pointed to both the 'courthouse emptied' aspect of the September 28, 2004 Redwood City quake during the Peterson trial and the '300-thousand dead' and 'land driven back to a previous age' presaging the December '04 tsunami, when archetypically described in an early August 2004 predictive linguistics scan. 

 

We're left pondering whether the Venezuela event was 'the' event, having its link to energy, oil, and such, or whether it's just a prequel to a sequel of larger magnitude still ahead  as we come along to the summer solstice...

 

Fed Watch: Lead or  Be Led?

Word this morning that GM lost $3.3 billion in Q1 will be a serious weight for the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee which is due to hand up its latest rate decision this afternoon.  We'll post it as soon as it's available, so drop by then.

 

Ben the Printer  is a pretty good student of economics and he likely recalls that auto sales began to crater in the August/September period of 1929.  So what's the modern analog to that?  We already know that PC sales are  dropping, cars are soft, and what the country needs is lower rates and a good nickel cigar.  But are we going to get it?

 

The chant coming from Wall Street and folks like Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, says "Rate Cut would 'Do more damage than good" according to a Bloomberg dispatch.  On the flip side, "Fed Expected to cut key interest rates one more time" says an AP story putting a more hopeful tone on events.

 

The linguistics (previous story) seem to be pointing toward higher energy prices, and that would fit with lower interest rates and decline of the US dollar's oil purchasing power.

---

While it is widely imagined that the "Fed" leads the economy, there's a case to be made that the "Fed" is nothing more than a consensus player that looks at the latest batch of clippings from the Street and says "Oh, they want this, so let's give it to them".  In other words, the question is an open one: Does the Fed Lead or is the Fed Led by market pundits and mavens?

 

Frankly, if I were the Fed, I'd be lowering another quarter - maybe even a half today.  Sure, that would cause problems in terms of inflation down the road, but it would also help kick loose some of the constipation in the banking system that is slowing down the refi's that people so desperately need to get their home mortgage payments down to something reasonable.

---

Sidebars: 

Mortgage Applications Still Declining

A press release out today from the Mortgage Bankers Association will also likely weigh on the Fed:

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 567.0, a decrease of 11.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 637.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.2 percent compared with the previous week and was down 14.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 16.7 percent to 1905.2 from 2286.3 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.8. percent to 340.1 from 357.3 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index decreased 5.2 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 3.7 percent.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 4.3 percent to 668.4 from 698.7. The four week moving average is down 1.1 percent to 365.9 from 369.9 for the Purchase Index, while this average is down 7 percent to 2445.6 from 2628.2 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 45.7 percent of total applications from 49.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.9 from 6.6 percent of total applications from the previous week.

Remember these are applications, not completed loans.  We hear from sources in SoCal that the application to loans completed ratio may be as high as 30:1!  That's a number don't hear much about.

 

Advance GDP

Another weight: The preliminary GDP report out today for Q1 08

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP also increased 0.6 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The first- quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 29, 2008.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, private inventory investment, exports of goods and services, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and PCE for durable goods. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in real GDP is the same as in the fourth quarter, reflecting an upturn in inventory investment that was offset by an upturn in imports, and downturns in nonresidential structures, in PCE for durable goods, and in PCE for nondurable goods.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.12 percentage point to the first-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.16 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.30 percentage point from the first-quarter growth in real GDP after subtracting 0.86 percentage point from the fourth-quarter growth."

This number obviously clears the way for the Fed to cut because a 6-10'th's of a percent annual growth rate just sucks if you're trying to grow the bottom line of a big company and trying to justify stratospheric price to earnings ratios.  Either growth in GDP goes giant or the market's going to crash (which it will in October, but that's getting ahead of ourselves...).

---

Sure, the Streeters will tell you that there will be various bail out programs for homeowners along shortly, but as the Katrina and Rita events showed, government has a way of coming up with the wrong kind of help at the wrong time because it's driven mostly by political expediency and not by practical needs of people on the ground.

 

This afternoon we will get another clue as to where  Wall Street, not Main Street, rules the "Fed". 

 

Can Cell Phones Implode Iraq?

A report in the "American Thinker" by Herbert Meyer brings to light a very serious threat to the future of Iraq in the form of an expiring contract to keep their cell phone systems lit up and working.  Definitely worth a read.

 

Messy Wars

Getting virtually no play in the national MSM is the story out of Eastern Washington about how 6,700 tons of depleted uranium contaminated soil is being moved to Idaho for storage from Kuwait!  Just think how that business could grow after Iraq - and maybe Iran late summer...

 

Power Tripping Department

"Massachusetts Police to Black Uniforms to instill Sense of "Fear" Yup, says another report, citing the psychological influence of uniforms.  Black shades so you can't look 'em in the eyes and such is power tripping indeed.  What more evidence that the police state has arrived than putting such emphasis on projecting 'power' and instilling 'fear' in the general population does a rational thinker need? 

 

Passings: LSD Inventor

Dr. Albert Hoffman who discovered LSD back in 1938 has died at age 102.

 

Reader Advisory: Datacenter Back

Our high reliability server strategy worked out sort of so-so on Tuesday...may move things more.  Here's why the Tuesday report may have been a little slow (if at all) for a while yesterday morning:

There was a major outage at our datacenter this morning that affected some of our servers. Connectivity was restored around 12:30 pm.

If you can't get reports from the www.urbansurvival.com site, remember there is the www.independencejournal.com site and if those are both down, and advisory will be posted at www.peoplenmics.com after about 2-hours of delay explaining the outage and when uptime can be expected.

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Craigslist As an Indicator

For how long is it, I have been telling you 'Watch www.craigslist.org"  for all kinds of bargains as people - squeezed out of their homes find themselves unloading all kinds of valuables accumulated over lifetimes in often vain attempts to make ends meet?

 

Hats off to the Associated Press for report that "Americans unload prized belongings to make ends meet".

 

You Are Not Alone

If you feel like Americans are being singled out for foreclosures and such due to our massively promoted high consumption/unsustainable/living on debt lifestyle, I got news for you:  People in the British Isles have seen "UK House prices see annual fall".  Maybe not to the East Bay implosion of the Riverside ruins, but where there have been eager banksters, there's fallout developing.

 

Corn or Hay?

If you read commodity prices like tea leaves, here's a reader note:

"The thing to find out is how many farmers planted corn this spring rather than soy beans or wheat or what they normally plant? With the fed requiring 10% of our gas be corn squeezings I have heard that hay was going to be hard to get this year but there will be lot's of corn."

Good point:  We'll be watching hay prices, which in turn will drive meat prices.  I am amazed that the markets haven't started trading switchgrass yet, because it looks like a dandy ethanol fuel source.

 

You Are Not Alone, Redux

Next, consider the comments of the World Bank's Robert Zoellick.  The way the bank figures it, 100-million people have been driven into poverty by soaring food prices and another two billion or so are at risk.

 

Carbon Credit Madness

I guess I'm not the only one who is skeptical of the real value of so-call carbon credit schemes.  A reader from Down Under writes:

Take a look at one of the Carbon Credit schemes they are promoting down here:

(Link to external content)

You have to lock up your land for over 100 years (up to 130!) and if there is a fire during that time then the owner at that point must replant ! All this for an measly $2.50/acre/year (amortised).

Just to sort of keep this in perspective, this is an Australian deal.  The lock up time in most US programs I'm aware of is less.  But taxes are running higher than carbon credits around here, so why would a person tie up their land for less than its tax rate, unless of course, they had failed a drug test very recently? 

 

Eco-nuts doesn't mean ecological crazies - it means economic crazies...Smash down the middlemen who take more money than the farmers and landowners might be a decent start on saving the planet.  But wait!  If we did that, then the corpgov sector wouldn't be hyping the warming and the carbon deals and...well, you see how this big wheel spins, huh?

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net...

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch: Playing on 20

A week or two back I picked up an antenna tuner on eBay - a used Drake MN-2700 which was properly sold as being in "ugly condition".  It was.  For some reason, certain electronics makers for a while used a kind of paint that remained 'rubbery' with the idea that it would not scratch as badly as conventional paints - this was for gear made before powder coasting became common.  turns out that a good coat of a spray paint, designed for painting plastic surfaces (Krylon 'Fusion') does a good job of fixing the paint issue.

 

With Elaine out for the evening on a 'rabbit run' (delivering rabbits with the neighbor) I got this $65 marvel fired up on the 20-meter CW (Morse code) ham band last night and had a nice chat with a fellow on five acres with a horse, a heifer, two dogs and a cat just outside of Arcadia, Florida.

 

A very satisfying half hour till the band changed.  Turns out both of us were using old Drake equipment.  I got the top of my TR-3 banged out and a new plate current meter installed and it works dandy. Wandering back to the house to fix a branch water and grilled chicken salad while 'batching it' for a few hours it was pleasant to savor a good CW chat.

 

Even though the FCC has removed the Morse Code requirement to get a ham license, there's still a certain joy that comes from being able to bang on a key and communicate.  Being able to copy 30-35 words a minute in your head is a good mental exercise, too.

 

As the American Radio Relay League noted in this month's QST, a couple of challenges trying to bring back the code have been turned down.  Still, if you are a ham that doesn't need to mean that Morse is dead-- I'd recommend a visit to the "International Morse Preservation Society" at www.fists.org.   Tell 'em #13106 sent you...

 

---

Tuesday April 29, l2008

Waiting on the Fed

The "Fed" meeting starts today and by tomorrow afternoon, we ought to know which way they're going to fall on the question of discount rates.

 

My advice to the "Fed" is simple: Since 1913 the banksters have printed up enough money that the dollar will buy only 1/20th (actually less) than what it did back when, so why not just pour on the ink and 'let 'er rip'?  Think of what that would do:

• Gold and oil would be off to new highs

• Real Estate owned by banks and other repo outfits would tend to lose less value (at least on paper) and might even go up

• People on the verge of foreclosure now MIGHT be able to find refi loans although one commentator's description of banks as 'being constipated' (to the point of fatally backed up) seems accurate if not a little too graphic this early in the day.

 

As of yesterday's trading session, the odds seemed like about 70-30 against a further cut in rates.  The Wall Street Journal headlines "Fed Must Strengthen Dollar". 

 

I smiled when the question was posed whether a further cut would really help the situation, or would simply increase the 'moral hazard'.  A little late in the game for asking such, don't you think?  Where were the admonishments against Chief Bubblemeister Sir Alan Greenspan's push of money into the economy and people into bankruptcy now that loans are resetting? Hmmm... I suppose I shouldn't' mention that...Greenspan being knighted royalty and all and me not writing from atop a soap box...

---

Gold was down when I looked this morning and the dollar was showing at least a pulse - which either means the 'no cut here' drums are beating loudly, or it's just a chance for the insiders to load up on shorts in dollars, longs in oil and gold, and let the "FED" drop the other shoe where it will.

---

A two-day strike by refinery workers in Scotland is coming to an end - so much for $10-dollar a gallon gas in the U.K. but greedy oil execs can take comfort in the test of consumption at double digits per gallon.  I have to imagine it will show up in a boardroom PowerPoint sometime.

---

As the dollar strengthens, the price of gold softens and all eyes remain on the Fed.  I think it was Rick Ackerman who told me a long time back that when the "Fed" makes a move, you get an immediate reaction in the primary direction of the move, a flurry of short selling against that to allow the big boyz to move into positions, and then the move takes off in earnest.  Rick's comment this morning is that the market seems headed higher - at least in the short term, based on his "Hidden Pivot" method of trading.

 

Whether the market can keep up a head of steam through June is another matter.  The Consumer Confidence numbers out today from the Conference Board (10A Eastern).  If you look at their web site and recent headlines, you may be able to spot a trend: - most leading international indicator series have been pointing down with the exceptions being Spain, Mexico and the U.S. which I take to mean Mexico will become a State soon (along with Canada) thanks to the backroom talks G.W. held in New Orleans recently and there's maybe a Spanish knighthood coming for someone in the administration's power structure, at least that's what I'd suspise over a second cup of cynic's "don't trust 'em" juice.

 

Web Bots:  Them Winds

While I was starting to  hope that our mini-tornado which wiped out a couple of dozen big trees on the south part of our ranch a week or so back would be the end of the worst-in-a-while tornado season, that turns out not to be the case.  Southeast Virginia was pretty well beat up overnight with more than 200 people injured.

 

Food Shortages

The "UN to set up task force to tackle global food crisis" reports the AP.  Think food prices are going to level off anytime soon?  Think again - and if that doesn't float your boat, then read the headlines like "Nebraska Corn Farmers Face Rising Input Costs."

---

Elaine asked me Monday about the link between ethanol production and rising food costs because it was all overs the talking heads and the money honeys Monday.  Personally, I'm figuring that ethanol production is being skapegoated here.  The reason prices of commodities are going up as much more to do with higher natural gas prices (fertilizer production chain) and diesel costs.

 

I reminded her that a little over a year ago I laid in a good supply of "investment grade diesel (diesel with a quart of fuel preservative per barrel) at about $2.49 a gallon (dyed for ag use only).  Late last week she had mentioned to me that she'd seen diesel over $4.00 a gallon not 20-miles from the local well heads here in Oil Country.

---

Readings: MSNBC's report "Emptying the breadbasket: Decades of Great Plains wheat as king and low prices everywhere are over".

---

Intrepid reader Rob-of-food riots continues to plot the number of hits for 'food riot' on Google's news search engine since around the beginning of March:

 

 

Speaking of the web bots, two items: Subscriptions are open if you'd like to be part of the next data run.  Part Zero should be posted this weekend. That's the baseline report - a sort of recap of the modelspace before new values are loaded in and the changes between runs (which is how what's coming in inferred) begins.  Second point is that yes, there are a couple of things percolating in modelspace which has cause the time monks to move up the start of this run by a couple of weeks.  Typically a baseline report and then six weekly (or nearly so) in depth reports plus a weekly trader's Slices (of the data).

 

Hang 'em High Department

The deputy prime minister of Saddam Hussein will go on trial starting today. The charge is that he had some role in the execution of 42 merchants in 1992.  I'm sure he'll get a fair trial before hanging.

 

Lack of Training?

China says excessive speed was the reason for the deadly train wreck Monday that killed at least 70 and injured more than 400...

 

Iran's Sri Lanka Play

Noting that Iran's president is helping increase oil refining in Sri Lanka beings an interesting political question:  When we bomb Iran, does that mean we will take over Sri Lanka's oil deals too?  (If you're really up on jitter juice you'll notice I didn't say "if" - I said "when"...)

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: China Hikes, Inflation to Come

I'm hearing from people who seem to be in a position to know such things that a large national hardware concern (which is a co-op, not a corporate operation) is telling member stores to be very watching for price changes now through summer.  Reason?  Apparently the president-level letter to independent store owners explains that steel prices in China are continuing to climb.  Because China's economy is growing so fast internally, there's virtually no recycling business there so everything has to be made with new (not recycled) steel and there are production issues.

 

Beyond there, there are also some new labor laws in China this year which have the effect of adding to production costs - hence the hardware exec's warning to independent store owners to check prices closely and keep up with changes.

---

This is precisely the kind of good 'intel' that we appreciate knowing around here and it makes a lot of us very loyal to the sources of true values in hardware, if you follow my drift...

---

So, knowing what the look for, we can now seek out headlines like this one:" Steel prices rise for fourth week on back of strong demand" and "China fights freight premium as iron deadline looms."

---

This is the kind of thing I've been expecting for a couple of years.  You may recall that two years ago when I started getting serious about fully outfitting the ultimate home work shop when I could buy good imported machine tools for between 50-cents and a dollar a pound that it seemed a strange way to preserve wealth.

 

However, let me run through how some of these tools have appreciated:

9 X 20 lathe metal lathe: Up 25%

Two speed milling machine: Up 25%

Welder (wire) Up 15%

Generator head (10kw) up 33%

Table Saw up 22%

And the list goes on.  That diesel tractor I bought for $14,950 (with accessories including a box blade, Bush Hog, and loader bucket) is probably the same or higher today. 

 

What does it all mean?  Shop Craig's List for hand tools - lots of bargains there lately and with overseas costs going up (and transportation costs going up too) I'm not sure there are many better investments than a good home shop and a garden a person of average means can make anymore.  And learning the skills to actually make things with your hands and fix or repair what you have now. 

 

Diggin' Dirt

One of our readers (who properly addressed his email to "Su majestad") is off to attend an earthen home apprenticeship course.    See www.calearth.org for more.  Pretty cool...

 

email of the Week:

From a thoughtful reader with a positive attitude:

Hi, George,

Great work, if grammatically challenged from time to time.   [He must have me confused with someone else here! - G]

I have been thinking about solutions, particularly nonviolent ones, to the mess we have been steered into.

Here are some ideas:

1. In all our discussions of changing the power structure, I suggest that we emphasize nonviolence plus amnesty for some or all of the malefactors who switch sides and help. The us/them and left/right types of paradigms are incredibly handy tools for dominating a society, and scared enemies are more dangerous than scared potential friends.

2. Looking at the ethanol genocide, ug99 wheat rust, gmo super plagues, honey bee and bumblebee collapse (possibly a gmo artifact, possibly a combination of factors) and weather anomalies, like the rains in Central Texas last Spring/Summer which were so heavy they daily overflowed gauges, so we'll never know how much it was - All things considered, we know one critical thing for sure. The entire system is not functioning within any recent historical parameters. This means all paradigms are suspect. I suggest that we emphasize this fact in our thinking and communications. Like what foods will grow unmolested by weather extremes and animals? Only potatoes, so far as I can tell. And only certain types grow in Texas. The French revolution stemmed from the farmers' refusal to change from wheat to potatoes when the climate changed, despite the urgings of the Crown. Bad weather equalled collapse. Paradigm shift.

And fiat currency collapse means something new this time. Our accounts with banks and investment companies can be taxed, frozen or just plain confiscated (what's the difference?) very efficiently. Big Boys have their wealth secured. Small Fry have spent and borrowed theirs. The prudent ones are the only easy targets. History shows that we will be thus be targeted. So I suggest we talk about buying not just portable "money" like metals and such, but also revisit the old "Alpha Strategy" from the Carter years. Simply put, the strategy was to buy what you would use before your funds were devalued. Things like soap, aluminum foil, wine, staples, business supplies, equipment, canning supplies (if you really will use them) propane, energy saving devices from windows to solar screens to upgraded air conditioners to sensible cars to telecommuting equipment to paper to clothing. This is my favorite kind of hedge because it is not only "dual use" (disaster or not, it will yield returns) but it provides economic stimulus.

3. All true wealth derives from investment in productive capital. This is the most important economic law of them all, including the law of supply and demand. But it is not taught in schools. Money is literally nothing more than a wealth storage and transfer medium. Even gold is worthless unless there is something to trade it for. So rent houses, (if not taxed too heavily), all the things listed in part 2 above, and anything else which can or preferably will produce value should be considered. Dual-use/multiple use thinking cannot be emphasized enough. For example, global warming was always conceived at the top as a power grab. But there are ways to address its possible existence while furthering other goals. My favorite example is energy saving technologies. Energy is a national security issue. It is a financial, political and even a health issue. So saving it is a multi-use wealth generating activity. And it makes us less dependent on centralized power of all kinds, including governmental/business power. Ditto renewable investments, like forests, farms, rental property, and equipment designed to be rebuilt rather than trashed. Not to mention knowledge of important things, as you have noted.

4. Learning about substitutes for commercial products is a form of untaxed, portable wealth. My favorite example of this is learning how to cook gourmet food. If you have an Internet connection, this takes only time. But it yields huge returns if you spend less eating out but actually eat better. And in the time it takes to watch one TV show, you can find dozens of great, free recipes. As a thought experiment, consider what the money you spend goes for and then ask yourself what you could do to substitute knowledge or time for it. Like maintaining your cars better. Or better yet, using them 25% less and keeping them 40% longer. That alone is like having a part time job you don't have to show up for or pay taxes on. Hence the new word "staycations" for vacationing in your local area. No hotels. Far less driving. And most people rarely tap their local tourist attractions.

5. When you work, who are you working for? If you drive to work, you are working for the energy companies, auto companies, tire companies, taxing authorities, auto mechanics, road builders, and, maybe, the companies which advertise on the radio, whose ads you listen to. If you eat out at lunch, you are working for the restaurant and its property owners. Then there's the parking, clothes, dry cleaner, and the medicines you take for the stress. Perhaps child care, road tolls, extra cellphone charges, and then there's your employer or customers. Somebody pays for the workplace, its heating and cooling, janitorial, taxes, security, phones, equipment, etc. Under it all, you mostly work for governments and bankers. But I repeat myself. Considering these factors, what, really, is your net? How much time/energy/health do you spend for the rest of it?

There are many steps away from this false paradigm. 4 day weeks would be a start. (Like driving 25% less?) Remember free time on weekends? Next would be telecommuting several days a week. Perhaps moving closer to work. Next is working from home and car alone. Next is having one or both spouses produce untaxable wealth at home, including child care or even home schooling, not to mention better and cheaper food, avoided home maintenance costs, and radically reduced automobile wear. Perhaps a garden, homemade wine and beer, and some Internet business. Next is downsizing, which reduces literally every cost you can think of. You may find that weaning yourself off of working for dozens of other entities enables you to live on such a reduced income that your choices of careers increase. You might even pay off debts or buy some capital. Step one is asking the right questions, and not letting the consumerist culture answer them for you.

6. Bottom line: Money is not necessarily wealth, "Income" comes in many forms, and you might be surprised if you figured out who you really work for.

Pretty good letter, huh?

 

CERT Training

George:

My wife and I and about 30 other families/individuals have taken the 10 week CERT ( Community Emergency Response Team) training classes. We are not first responders, But, If we get to the disaster first, we are the first responders..and hence can save lives. This is a national program, the same training, including hands on, is taught across CONUS. CERT training is also being offered in HS and colleges.

If and when " it" happens, Every one trained, will at least, have some basic knowledge.

http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/training_downloads.shtm#CERTSM

The local ham radio club held an emergency preparedness test last weekend - 'EMCOMM" (emergency communications) drill.  Went well...

---

Send snip and save notes/comments, letters, cash, bonds, new cars, and... oh you know the drill, to george@ure.net.

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch: Deer Leases

Elaine and I were having a conversation last night about deer leases.  Not that I am into killing animals (exceptions for all kinds of spiders and snakes, of course) but as an economically-crazed human, as much or more than others, revenue is revenue.

 

For those who live outside the Republic (if you don't know what the Republic is, click here) there's a tradition in many parts of Texas that land holders supplement their incomes by auctioning off hunting rights to their land.

 

After doing a little research, I began to notice a trend.  For many deer leases that can be purchased on the 'net, hunters are paying $800 a day to walk about with their guns and shoot at whatever.

 

I've concluded that we should be able to develop a nearly endless revenue stream by offering exotic animal hunting.  You want to shoot a snow leopard, fur seal, last remaining whale, or whatever, ya'll just come on down and pay us $1,000 a day and you can hunt on our 30-acres.

 

The catch is (and I will trust you not to pass this on) that there are, of course, no exotic or endangered species here.  Haven't been since the last Ice Age was retreating.

 

With the exception of the goats and chickens, about the only other live animals on the property are the odd raccoon (which eats chickens), a possum now and then, and plenty of snakes.

 

I have never understood the "Big Hunter" mentality - the typical member of our target market probably drives an Escalade, has 10-30 different riffles of different colors, calibers, and scopes, lives in a McMansion and secret takes a dysfunction corrector if'n you know what I mean. 

 

Maybe I've just been around the 'one shot, one kill" crowd too long.  Life is just simpler to me if you have three sizes of ammo - not 10-20.  If an AK-47 or SKS (7.62X39) , 12-gauge shotgun, and a 9 mm pistol won't  take care of whatever needs attention, you're probably not going to be saved by trying to find which of umpteen different flavors of ammo will get you out of a jam.

 

Here in the late stages of paper assets, it seems someone should help Ben Bernanke's crew get money back into circulation.  So if some morning you come by here and see a big add for a web site featuring "Exotic Animal Hunting - $1,000 Per Day" don't be alarmed. 

 

No, we're not about to really let anyone hunt here, especially during deer season, but there's so much more money to be made at $1,200  a day for hunting  (see how quickly I can adjust prices?) that such lesser schemes, such as selling carbon credits which might net us $250 a year and would lock up any development of the land for 10-years, is a joke.  so, how about this:

"Hunt Exotics & Endangered Species!  Yes, now you can shoot at anything that moves in scenic East Texas and you might even get lucky and bag something really exotic.  Only $1,800 per hunter per day.  email: george@ure.net with your reservations.  Designated Texas Safe Hunting Area: No vice presidents allowed."

---

Monday April 28, 2008

Attention on Terra

As the week begins there's always the matter of trying to figure out what will be the Big Story for the week.  Or, what's going on that taken as a whole presents us with an interesting context for looking at life this week.  This morning, seems to me that what the predictive linguistics work at www.halfpasthuman.com calls the "Terra Entity" in modelspace is worth of attention:

 

Quakin'/Shakin'

Folks up in the Reno (Nevada) area are  somewhat on pins and needles (I mean besides those from the pines in the area).  There have been additional earthquakes over the weekend and as one report puts it "Series of quakes takes toll on rattled residents of Reno".

---

Given the recent activity off the southern Oregon coast, and the recent out-of-the-ordinary shaker in southern Illinois, the question floating just over the prehensile brain is whether this is normal stuff as the American continent moves west at its sub glacial speed, or whether there's something else building.  Adding to this the 4.8 on Vancouver Island early Sunday morning to consider as well.  Worth keeping a bookmark on the US Geological Survey's World Earthquake List just in case...

 

Weather Spring

This has been an unusual spring here in East Texas, along with many other parts of the Nation. There was the record snowfall over the weekend in Anchorage, Is global warming dead?  Ask me in late August.

 

Smokey

Los Angeles is entering its wildfire season - -and because of the heavy rains a few years back, there's plenty of fuel as "Hundred flee wildfire burning in foothills near Los Angeles."  At least a thousand people have fled Sierra Madre so far.  Smoke and closed schools, not treasure...

 

Markets: Oil Presses $120

The price of oil is moving toward the $120 level this morning and more than a few readers have asked "If oil is going to records, why aren't gold and silver?"  I think they will over time, but for now, the PowersThatBe seem to be administering a beat-down while they can. 

 

Don't forget that the Fed is meeting this week (tomorrow and Wednesday) and if the Fed doesn't lower rates, it may be implied by the markets that inflation worries are back and that could like a fire under the metals.  On the other hand, the market is not rational...

---

One bet I'd almost be willing to make: The Dow may bust back through 13,000 this week as my predicted rally into summer continues...

 

"Where's Our Nukes?" Department

The Russians are in an interesting box.  On the one hand, if they ship nuclear equipment to Iran, the worry (likelihood?) is that Iran will use it in ways that could bring on the bombing of Iran in the August/September timeframe.  On the other hand, a deal's a deal, as "Iran demands Russian nuclear shipment".  What's the Kremlin gonna do?

 

Train Wreck

Usually, when I bring up "train wreck" it's in reference to some economic data, or a presidential wannabe's campaign.  No, this morning it's the real deal - a train wreck in China which has killed 60-some people.

---

A big airport ,fire in Minnesota on Sunday.  Video.

 

Hot Zone

Speaking of China, you may wish to put off any plans you might have had to visit the Eastern provinces of China.  At least consider delaying the trip until the outbreak of a deadly virus that has killed 19 people so far is under control.  Call my pilot, and give him the week off.

 

Accident of Geography?

This is the kind of headline that sends me scurrying for more coffee and my digital mapping software:  "Despite war, Kabul still "not Baghdad."  What do you mean I take things to literally?

 

Zimbabwe Parties On

Robert Mugabe, who by most accounts lost the Zimbabwe presidential election, may land his inflation-ruined country in civil war yet.  "Zimbabwe Parties to check [election] results" just means that the stonewalling continues.  Who do these people think they are?  Florida?

 

Something to Chew On?

Wrigley and Mars are planning to merge unless something gums up the works.  (No, I really have no shame when it comes to writing...)

 

The Runs:  Revolution Meme

Ron Paul's new book has a curious title - given how we've been talking about the 'revolution meme' in predictive linguistic modelspace of late: "The Revolution: A Manifesto"  To the voting booth, mon frer!

---

You know what the ultimate kick-butt ticket 'take back America' ticket would be?  Ron Paul for president and Jesse Ventura ("Don't start the revolution without me") for VP.  That would sure put some of the corpgov aristocracy in their place, wouldn't it?  At $13-bucks, the Paul book is very affordable...

---

What me?  Partisan?  Hey!  I'm not the only guy who noticed that John McCain couldn't keep his campaign budget on the tracks.  Just think what he could do with a whole national budget to bust...

 

Military Registration

Will Selective Service crack down on illegals over 18 who have not registered with selective service?  Interesting read out of El Paso...

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Disposable Income Disposed

Well, what little disposable income folks have is being squeezed and one of the 'sqeezees' (if that's a word at this hour) is apparently stock car racing.  A Birmingham reader sent in this Talladega update:

"Track officials admit ticket sales down at least 10% this year.

Meanwhile the RV packing never did fill up. Looks like at least 30% empty.

Track officials blamed gas prices and economy for holding down the attendance.

The effect are felt back to Birmingham and over to Atlanta, where the race usually books all motels within driving distance.

 

Talladega is about 35 minutes from Birmingham and about an hour to 1:15 from Atlanta.

 

Also the local RV mob is a major tourist event for the local Central Alabama area. People even drag along their boats and stay to fish a few days, as the track is next to one of the major fishing lakes in the state, a location of Bass Fishing tournaments. 

 

So the appearance is that Joe Six-Pack is pulling in the spending on travel and recreation pretty severely, as you have described elsewhere."

Corrected: Kyle Busch was the winner, BTW.  RV prices, at least the used ones I've been watching, seem to be drifting downward.

 

Nice Rice at a Price

No, the stories from last week about rice shortages in some places are not universal.  A reader sends this shopping experience:

"Today, now tomorrow, Monday, My wife and I went to a Cosco, about 20 miles North of Atlanta. There was plenty of Uncle Ben's Rice and wheat flour...We don't like UBRice. Bought: 36 pk 'AA' Duracell Coppertop $12.49 Charmin Ultra, 36dbl rolls, $18.99 This should last a longtime!!!!!!!!

We then went, about one block away, to the local Indian (say India) store, where the manager could not understand the rumors of rice shortages. He had plenty of white rice as well as various brands of Basmati rice. We bought the following:

Laxmi Brand,Brown Basmati rice, 10 lbs, $15.49

Tilda Pure Basmati Rice, 10 lbs, $17.49

Laxmi Brand, Chappatti Flour ( 100% Whole Wheat Flour) 20 lbs $19.99

Coconut milk, 13.5 fl.oz,(400 ml) $0.99

If you are looking for rice, it may worth going to the local Indian store to check out their inventory."

We continue to slow and methodically build the larder here at the ranch - live to have a good rotating inventory...

 

Inland Aquaculture: Protein Independence

A reader near Orlando sends this:

Hi George: May I address you as George? my upbringing tells me to address you as Mr. Ure, but you would probably say Mr. Ure is your dad. I have been following your website for several years now, long enough to remember you talking about a certain neighbor who was building a shrimp farm. By the tone of your remarks, it sounded like you were a bit skeptic of the idea. What ever became of him? I ask because at that time I was beginning my journey into "backyard aquaculture". I, however, became enamored with the idea of being "protein independent". I stumbled into Tilapia farming. Yes, Tilapia farming is as suitable to small urban spaces as it is to big Texas size farms. I've been working at it since 2005, and now I can say I am "protein Independent". smack in the middle of Orlando!) I could take up hours of your time describing my methodology, but if you go to www.tilapiafarmingathome.com  you can get a pretty good idea of the potential for "feeding the half of the world population that is going hungry, and making 200 million dollars in the process". (that is my motto.) any way, That is my website. Unfortunately I don't know of any one else doing this type of work so I can only tell you about what I am doing. I am not asking for free advertizing from you, I just believe it is something that can help a lot of people. One of your followers,

(Of course, by all means call me George - "Your Majesty" would be a little out of place.)

 

I haven't talked to my neighbor across the road much about his aquaculture plans - and thanks for reminding me.  The problem he had was that when his pond (about a little over an acre's worth) was put in, the dozer driver knicked through the layer of clay that he was depending on to form a good bottom.  I think he's put some bentonite in, but so far the pond level is coming up slower than taxes.

 

Meantime, it has turned into a HUGE draw for wildlife, especially in summer when things get dry-ish.  (They won't this year - see next story for the explanation of that.)

 

I've been looking at putting a pond in on our property, too.  Mine would be much easier because all I would need to do is dam up the headwaters of the creek with an earthen dam.  But, as I'm sure you know, that kind of project is fraught with all kinds of issues, not the least of which is what the liability picture would be like if I screw up and the dam were to let loose.

 

We've got two locations on the property where we could dam.  One (the upper dam?) would be entirely on our property and would be a fairly small one - about 200 feet long by 10-12 feet deep.  At the bottom end, the creek passes over onto a neighbor's land for a ways (400 feet or so) before meandering back onto my side.

 

I talked with my neighbor about whether he would object if I built a really big pond (it would be 3-acres of so, but again, the liability would be enormous - and if not liability, then engineering costs. so it sits in the "some day, fixing to get ready to" pile, at least for now.

 

This and ideas about a bermed home have me looking around for a cheap bulldozer I could rebuild. The Kubota 4X4 tractor is a great rig for most things around the ranch, but for putting in thinks like earth-sheltered home or storage buildings, or pushing enough dirt to make a dam...well, that's not what they were designed for.  Need some serious dirt-moving for that. 

 

For now, I'm willing to watch the neighbors pond fill up (slowly) and I keep watching Craig's List for the 'deal of the century' on a small to medium dozer... 

---

 

Send snip & save items to george@ure.net - anything you find under-covered by MainStreamMedia (MSM) or that which helps you get along in modern life a little better is welcome...

 

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around The Ranch:  How Cool Is This?

 

You can blame Elaine (poster girl for air conditioning, left)  if it's unseasonably cold, wet, and cloudy this summer in East Texas.  That's because on Friday, our crew got the new 5-ton AC unit turned on for the house.  Not that we needed it, mind you. 

 

As soon at the lines were vacuumed, charge topped off and the breakers thrown, the weather promptly dropped to a high of only 75, or so and the low this morning was down into the lower 40's.  But is that enough to justify the expenditure? Not yet, but I have my hopes up that by the end of the summer I won't look like a complete bozo for having the dough on such a unit. 

 

Cold, or not, boys will be boys, so I decided to chill down the house anyway.  I stopped in the mid 60's content that yes, it would suck heat out of the house. Thanks to the double-sheet rocked walls, the house holds heat pretty well and even at 44 this morning the heat pump had not cycled on.  So either the house is well insulated, or yours truly has screwed up the programming of the controller.  I did read the manual, though....