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Replaying 1929 "Standup Economics" This economy is a what? |
Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change newsUpdated: Saturday June 14, 2008 07:55 CDT The Early Briefing In depth perspectives are for subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com |
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Oh Crop! Summer Bummer A long conversation with chief time monk Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com left me thoroughly bummed out yesterday, in part because it seems that linguistically, the weather in the Midwest may continue extremely wet for the balance of the summer and the "gouging winds" we have had this year (see the NWS chart here) will be morphing into 'them floods' for the rest of this year and into next.
If you look at the latest satellite imagery, you can see the mid Pacific high (highs rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere) and the low over the upper US Midwest about the Canadian border (rotating counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere) are continuing their conspiracy to make this a wet summer.
All of which would be no big deal, except these systems seem relatively stationary and the result is that warm moist air is being sucked up into the central US from the Gulf of Mexico where it's colliding with the cooler air dragged down from the north by the mid Pacific high and you get precipitation. And, at least as seems likely by the language shift, we will be getting lots and lot of rain. --- A little Saturday morning diversion here: I don't claim any credentials to comment on the weather other than what was required to get a private pilots license back when weather was relatively new, but I remember enough about colliding and occluded fronts to remember to use extra caution flying under VFR (visual flight rules) conditions thereabouts.
One of the 'must have' books in your library, even if you don't ever fly an airplane is the Airman's Information Manual which you can pick up for a few bucks used on Amazon, or its successor, the FAR/AIM for 2008 which will set you back a whopping $11.53. (FAR/AIM nowadays means Federal Aviation Regulations and Aeronautical Information Manual; I guess Airman's information manual was just too simple.
The weather section is a definite keeper. It explains things like wind shear, what transponder codes to squawk if you're hijacked, not to mention why onshore and offshore winds occur. When you read about how to figure the wind direction by looking at a lake when trying to land a seaplane, for example, you'll figure out where the calmest part of the lake is for fishing, for example (up wind side). Not that you wouldn't have figured that out anyway with a moment's thought, but it's a book crammed with general purpose knowledge in addition to pilot-specific knowledge. Where was i? Oh yeah... --- The scope of the weather disaster is just barely taking shape this weekend. Already, I told you the 'them winds' meme meant that insurance companies had more adjusting crews out in the Midwest than during the peak of the KatRita disasters.
Although we don't know how big the hit will be to insurance companies yet (and we may not know the whole damage price tag for a year or more), what we do see in headlines this morning are terms calling the flooding "Iowa's Katrina" and the like.
Although the Washington Post today headlines that the "Iowa Flooding Rivals 1993 Deluge", the linguistics seem to suggest that a wide section of the Midwest could be passing 1993, 50-year flood levels and even 500-year or 1,000-year kinds of impacts. As usual, our caveat is that the language studies tend to err on the extreme side, and on the personal side, I hope they are really off base on this forecast, because the implications of them being right involve some major inconveniences for the country - like mass hunger.
Without going into a long discussion of a phenomena which we call either the 'George Postulate" or simply 'print through' on the timeline, remember last year we had all the linguistics about 'flooding' and either 700,000 or 7,000,000 people being displaced? Along with airplanes in the water which was 'filled' by the Teterboro airport video?
We had a number of parts of that descriptor set that were not filled, including the problems along the Red River as well and some descriptors that I read as pointing toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Then there's the resolution of the 700,000 or 7,000,000 and how this would fit into a modern (post-modern?) Diaspora.
If the rains keep coming for another three or four months (and then into the fall), we can begin to see how the Old 'Miss could become barrier to the movement of goods and services across the country. I haven't researched it very far - maybe because it's not written down anywhere convenient, or because I don't expect I'd like what I might read) but picture a Mississippi that is suddenly a mile or more wide here in the next four to six weeks down much of its length.
That could put a terrible damper not only on food production, but also on just the movement of goods and services across the country. Recall, too, that 'restrictions on travel' should be busting out all over this summer, although with the price of gasoline well north of $4 a gallon many places ($4.22/gallon in Las Vegas, for example), and with the cost of air travel going up and airlines canceling flights, it's a safe bet that things will be feeling extremely restricted shortly. --- The old Talking Heads tune "Lifetime Piling Up" comes to mind not for the drug references, but for it the psychological imagery of colliding realities.
It's with this in mind that this Saturday morning free update becomes a launching pad or prequel for Peoplenomics this weekend, which will deal with 'lifetime piling up' and how to cope with a very different future than the last several decades of relative easy living in America which are perhaps best summarized by the Tony Bennett song "The Good Life". The report's title? "Change of Status".. --- Besides helping one to be mentally braced for some not-so-kind developments, another reason to study the future is to make a buck by getting a handle on coming events before the rest of the herd wakes up.
In this regard, if the rains seem to lighten up going into early next week, I would expect we'll see a pullback in grain prices, but if the lingustics which go to the idea of more rain in our not-so-distant future are right, that might open the door for a few select commodity investments in things like grains for December. No, that's not a recommendation, just something to gnaw on (pun intended) as we see what grows as the spring goes on.
"Knee high by the Fourth of July" ain't going to happen many places. Something that is coming through in a number of reader emails like this one:
I suppose this gets us around to a discussion of how the rest of the summer could like up. If you cut the country into three bands (at an angle leaning top to right) we ought to have the Western band with a cooler than usual Pacific Northwest. Earlier this week, we had snow in Spokane, which is an incredibly important marker because that just doesn't happen very often. And, it brings some food impacts along with it. We're hearing that apples in the Wenatchee Valley are only about 40% of normal for this time of year and some growers and some growers may hire workers to pick off the smallest of apples so the remaining ones will grow.
To the south in this band of weather, I'd be expecting a drier than normal summer with a whole bunch of forest and range fires.
The Middle Band we've covered - the prospect of a miles-wide Mississippi is the scenario that worries me most because we depend so heavily on those freeways, rail bridges and pipelines that cross the Mississippi.
The Eastern Band will likely be dry, hot, and we've got a regional power outage ahead, and because of the high temps, I'd be betting on this band for where it could hit. Healthcare impacts, people injured or dead from the heat, all that seems to be in the preconscious buzz about the period just ahead. --- Not to start the morning on with a heaped up serving of 'bummer' but the ABC News site headlines today: "Scientists from around the glob join ABC news in a forum on Surviving the Century" Pretty optimistic, as I read it. If we get through the next 10-years seems a much better question - over even the next five, but HalfPastHuman subscribers will get the backstory to that remark when the last of the current time-scanning run is posted later today. --- Got a fall garden planned?
Huge Taliban Jail Break A Debka.com report says in part that the "...Taliban 'breaks 1,150 inmates out of Kandahar main prison."
If you're into news propagation theory, let's see how long before this goes mainstream, shall we?
Iran Attack Delayed? If you're wondering why the US has not yet attacked Iran, there's a little story out of San Diego that may hold a key. "Fire damage on carrier USS George Washington assessed" which means repairs will need to be made and that puts us on track for a September'ish kind of timeline, especially if the George Washington rolls past our old stomping ground/liveaboard home at Kona Kai Resort (back in our sailing says) on Shelter Island in late August..
Oil & Finance The "G-8 concerned about rising oil prices" reports the A.P. Rocket surgeons, these G-8 guys... --- The headline "Wall Street ends turbulent week with sharp gains" has me scratching my head - which may account for the bald spot developing. Up 97.54 for the week. During a week which revealed foreclosures are up 50% compared with a year ago, when the price of gas continued to climb, a natural disaster set in for farmers, and the balance of trade getting worse was supposed to be sinking it. Go figure.
We Are So Screwed Department "NYC company markets Obama & McCain-themed condoms..." I couldn't make up a story this good...
People Notes Normally, I steer clear of the 'people' stories, but once in a while when the Big Picture gets depressing, the 'people' sidebars are a nice distraction. People making news: --- NBC commentator Tim Russert has died of a heart attack. --- R&B singer R. Kelly has been acquitted on child porn charges. Took six years to get the case to court - all for not guilty on 14 government counts. --- LA federal "judge Alex Kozinski recuses himself from trial of porn maker Ira Isaacs" says the NY Daily News headline. --- And the on-again, off-again romance between Tommy Lee and Pamela Anderson is on again.
--- snip and save section --- Coping: It's Really Pretty Good Here A reader in Nepal writes in...
Even stop and go traffic on ther 405 in LA isn't so bad when you keep in mind how unreliable things are elsewhere. Until the regional power outage that's probably coming here this summer, that is.,..and then there's the linguistic and astro 'hot date' around July 8/9... but still better than most places.
Gas Station Consolidation? It was one thing when Citgo retailers stop selling gas, but now it looks like Exxon-Mobil will also get out of the retail gas station trade and is planning to sell off its 820 company-owned facilities.
A correspondent in Tucson writes that it's not just Exxon, but many Union 76 and Shell stations have become generic independents, as well.
Bottom line? get to know someone who owns a gas station!
Something Fishy in Aridzona
So, we wonder how long before banks start selling fishing licenses to drop a line in foreclosed home pools? Hmmm...would the state have authority over these private mini-lakes?
And, given what's ahead for the world's protein supply, has anyone come out with the $10 ebook on how to convert your swimming pool to a shrimp farm?
On the Ground in Europe A reader share this on th4e situation in Europe:
Of course, this is just the very extreme leading edge of what Robert Kaplan wrote about in his book "The Coming Anarchy" which was summarized waaay back in 1994 in an Atlantic Monthly article which, as luck would have it, is online here.
It would be a pretty good look ahead, if we weren't about to experience Terra Bites in a number of ways between now and then. ---- Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Peoplenomics.com 11,893: Edge of the Financial World? Although there's a good chance that the markets will continue the decline set up last Friday as the markets open on Monday, the drop even if a thousand points, would only be a 'drop in the bucket' compared to some of the longer-term counts in Elliott, some of the predictive linguistics work, and just common sense. The macro-problem is that somewhere between 2000 and 2015, a Grand Super Cycle top will be in. As that occurs, we won't be looking at a decline from 14,000 to 12,000 that became evident last week. Nope: it will be more like 14,000 to 2,000 to a Dow somewhere between 2,000 and zero. If there's a number I fear more than any other, it is a weekly close under 11,893.7. Let me show you why... More For Subscribers
Not a Subscriber yet? It's just $40/Year: Tell Your Friends UrbanSurvival has a very interesting business model - one that depends on growth. This busin4ess model is a lot like capitalism in that growth is required, but of course we won't ever get to cutting down the rainforests. So even if you don't subscribe to our premium newsletter at www.peoplenomics.com, please tell everyone you know about this site. The more this site grows, the more time and content will show up on the free site... Click here to send 'em an invite... Thank you!
"Live on $10,000" Updated There's now a single-page website devoted to my little ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year (or less) at www.liveontenthousand.com. Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!) ---- I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together. Click here to Put Me On Ham Gear List
Friday June 13, 2008 10% Inflation Reality: Denial at the Core We had a tip-off here for a few days that the Consumer Price Index figures out this morning would not be very good by just looking at how the 'hidden hand' has been mindlessly pushing up the US Dollar and beating down the price of gold.
Why would they be doing that? This morning's CPI figures tell a tale of inflation and by getting a head start on the markets - pushing the Dollar to insane/unjustified levels, the PPT is doing its job to maintain financial stability of the system.
If you're an investor - especially one who sees that markets are more rigged than not lately, the interventions and distortions are obvious. Home foreclosure filings are up almost 50% compared with year-ago levels (more on that in a moment), there is about $300-million a day going into war efforts, the oil situation is starting to bite, and it looks to me like the Oil Party will do its damnedest to hand the incoming democorps this fall a smelly loose one, so to speak, so that after eight years of financial irresponsibility the Demos will take the fall for Republicorp sins.
Now fast forward to the details of the CPI report, which I think you'll agree doesn't look anything like our most recent real-life experiences at the grocery stores. If you're a 1960's veteran of Haight Ashbury, a hit of windowpane or a few mushrooms will go nicely with this statistical soufflé:
OK, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis, the inflation rate is now running 10% which is what happens when you pencil out an unadjusted 0.8% for 12 months.
BUT policymakers will stick their heads (from where they are now) to the so-called core number (less for and energy) and claim the 3-month rate of core inflation annualize is only 1.8%. The annualized 28.2% inflation of energy, or the annualized 5.9% inflation for food (*Before the flooding which we will get to in a minute!) is of little concern to them or they wouldn't cling to their 'core' delusions.
So, how will the headline writers spin this, you're wondering? "Inflation jumps by biggest amount in 6 months" admits an AP headline which then goes on to cite the 'adjusted' 0.6% increase in general.
The odds for a mini-crash of the market next week may be a little better than a long shot now...
Floods a Pain, Grains to Gain The flooding in many parts of the Midwest is looking like a 500-year flood has arrived. Linguistically, I told you the HPH crew kept predicting record grain prices going into summer. Sure 'nuf, they're here as "Flooding batters Iowa, forces evacuations" and more.. "Corn Jumps to record for 6th day on Midwest Floods" says one report. I wonder how long before wheat picks up, too? A reader says this:
Another reader with the Illinois emergency services agency says the NWS has alerted them that this is a 100-year situation for Illinois and we hear it'll be a 500 or 1000-year event elsewhere...
Got your garden in?
'Them Winds" And speaking of environmental issues, how's this for a 'make a novel from it' headline: "Tornado hits university's research reactor in Kansas".
If That's Depressing Consider the Gill Montia story in the "Banking Times" this week headlined "Central Bank warns of Great Depression". Ah, but those bankster-gnomes at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have always been worrywarts, right?
Will Another War Help? There are a few who might argue that one reason for all the US adventurism and preoccupation with the War on Terror has been to ramp up government spending to such a degree that regular folks (that's us) would not notice that we're already in a Depression. It's just not headlined as such.
Take for example the report this morning that home foreclosure filings surged 48% over year ago levels in May. Doesn't sound like a healthy economy to me.
Just how little room the Administration has to go war-starting on yet another front has come clearly into focus in the Time Magazine Online report headlined "How Iran has Bush Over a Barrel". It's not as directly stated as the socialist "Worker's World" headline blaring "U.S. behind Israel's war threats on Iran" (which I won't say is wrong). --- The gas line panic hitting Europe is just about buried by the US-Centric MSM here, but if you are willing to read overseas press, you can pick up headlines like "Petrol Panic Hits Brain". Trucker blockades to prevent refilling and such in Spain.
A little media comparison? Sure. "Merchants say Spain Returning to normal on 5th day of truckers' strike" says one headline. Another says "Two die in European truck driver's fuel price protest"
I suppose the reason we're not hearing much about the Euro-mess from corpgov controlled media here is because the PowersThatBe don't want panic on both sides of the Atlantic at once. Heck no. Keeping people divided for conquer would be our advice to the PTB. Just bury the stories or cheerlead the wins by corpgov in order to stay in control and maybe squeeze just a little more profit out of late-stage corporate capitalism...
Trumpeting trouble in Europe it can be argued helps the dollar and anything that helps the sagging buck keeps the Beltway Bandits in control...
Bushco Ignoring Court Although it was a close vote - which we'd expect after the right-wing got to appoint so many Supreme Court Judges - the high court has ruled 5-4 that detainees at Guantanamo Bay Cuba still have basic Constitutional Rights - and that CONgress and a slug of Bush-Cheney executive orders can't just write off on a whim.
Although I'm afraid for the future when such votes are so close, I'm proud as hell to be an American when the system still works.
Don't get me wrong - I'm not suggesting that some of the detainees shouldn't be kept locked up. BUT what I would argue is that they get treated to the same laws and processes as anyone else and we let the system work with equal protection for all.
Like Pappy used to say "Rights are always taken first from those least able to defend them."
Oh, does the Bush cabal agree? Nope. In fact, flying in the face of the high court ruling, "US Attorney General says [secret US military] Guantanamo Trials to Proceed"
I don't know about you, but when the High Court says something to the [runaway] Executive Branch which says it's going ahead with secret trials anyway, the Great Country starts to feel a lot like a banana republic...something that is becoming pretty clear to lots of people...Want evidence?
Impeachment Poll That reminds me: A current MSNBC poll is running about 89% in favor of impeachment proceedings against the current inhabitant of the White House.
Over-Reacting to the News? My eldest daughter has informed me of something called the "Voluntary Human Extinction Movement" - which given the number of people on the planet seems like a reasonable thought.
Of course there are two little problems with it that I see. First, only educated people will 'get it' which means that uninformed/dumb people will keep breeding anyway and then there's the little matter of housing, food, and economic collapse when late stage capitalism goes toes up due to negative growth. And oh, did I mention that in the Third World it takes a family/community/group effort just to survive? Interesting concept and reaction though...given that next year marks the beginning of media awareness of the world's 'transformation' into whatever's next, linguistically speaking. It's already coming into a ghopstly outline now for the awares...
--- snip and save section --- Coping: A Trip to the Car Dealer "Why is George going to Chrysler/Dodge dealership in town?" you're asking. No, I didn't intend to look at cars -- the local Chrysler-Dodge outfit has very nice folks in their service department which have done right by me when I needed some work done on the pick-em-up truck a while back and they operate a Texas state safety inspection station.
Even though the old Daewoo has well over 100,000 miles on it, I've been loathe to lead it go for something newer, simply because it's a) paid for and b) gets 32 MPG highway.
Anyway, back to the point: They have a Chrysler Crossfire which is a nice enough looking car, which is a 'program' car that they are selling inexpensively (relatively speaking). Besides being totally impractical for more than a few sacks of groceries and a max of two people (the specs say the truck space is all of 3.6 cuibic feet which is about the lunch capacity of a football player), the car nevertheless would be fun to drive and stylish at that.
So after a chat with the friendly/helpful sales rep, I wandered back in to the service desk to see how the beatermobile was doing. "Best just a minute or two more" was the answer.
It was then I got to studying the price board. Oil change for most vehicles was $29.95. Then I saw it: There are a number of vehicles that have an 'up charge' for their oil change. Certain Hemi's, for example. And the Crossfire? Basic oil change is $119.95!
"Wow! Why's the Crossfire so expensive to change oil on?" I asked the lady doing paperwork at the desk.
"They have to do a fair amount of disassembly to get at the oil filter," she informed old Curious George.
And therein lies an auto shopping tip that I hadn't given much headspace to. If you go shopping for any kind of new car or truck, ask the dealer you're buying it from if there are any strange/additional costs associated with normal maintenance. It was one thing to find that my old Porsche 944 needed to have the whole engine and transmission removed to change out a clutch and throw-out bearing. But, $120 worth of labor to get at the oil filter in a new Crossfire? That's over in the "Ouch Department".
On the other hand, a large number of the components in the Crossfire are Mercedes SLK parts the auto writers tell us. If I were crazy enough to make an offer on this car, one of the conditions would be "free labor on the oil changes for the life of the vehicle".
Friday Humor: Where's the Dipstick? Speaking of oil, a little reader-humor about oil:
Our Indonesia Bureau Checks In Our former Houston Bureau Chief is running out 'bananas and monkeys bureau from the Indonesian outback and has an update on life there:
The back issue of Peoplenomics he's referring to may be issue #339 March 9, 2008 or other places where I have referenced my "recipe method of learning" and the 'substitution method of learning".
The greatest natural disaster on earth may be that while our "education system" purports to 'teach' and 'educate' there's almost no time spent in the early/formative years teaching kids how to learn anything in an hour or less. The trick is to teach people that there's a formula or recipe to almost anything imaginable. Once armed with that basic concept (e.g. that anything can be distilled into discrete steps that make up a process, formula or recipe) you will find yourself tremendously empowered.
I don't have anything against DACUM and other curriculum development methodologies, but the general delivery of education is more often than not, long on 'filler' and politically correct sidebars to the subject at hand, and less about "here's the formula to plug in and get the answer".
My belief in finding 'recipes' in their absolutely most compact form is why my favorite books tend to be nonfiction tombs that give me straight answers on everything from basic medicine (Control of Communicable Diseases in Man" by Benenson is the classic) to Audel's "Mechanical Trades Pocket Manual" and Thomas Glover's primo "Pocket Ref". --- Send snip & save items to george@ure.net. --- end snip and save section ---
Around the Ranch: Scrap Search "No, I'm not kidding, this is the real deal," a colleague on the phone insisted.
"Let me see if I have this right," I countered. "You've got a client who has a current need for a minimum of 100,000 metric tons of steel/iron scrap metal, and if I can source that from one of my readers (who admittedly work in all kinds of strange businesses), there's a good commission in it, right?"
"Exactly: A 100,000 metric ton minimum and a soft ceiling of 750,000 metric tons of scrap called HSM 1 of HSM 2. and they will pay up to $340 a metric ton for it."
"Well, I'll ask my wide-ranging assortment of readers - can't hurt. I mean we're all only six degrees of separation, huh? This stuff isn't going to North Korea or anything weird is it?"
"Nope - Europe is my understanding."
"OK, I'll ask...but it's not exactly the kind of thing a Duluth housewife has laying around the back yard for the kids to play with, you know..." --- Admittedly, a rather different kind of inquiry than I usually get in my consulting practice as a sales/marketing/management consultant with an emphasis on marketing and long-molecule business structures, but OK, what the heck. Can't hurt to ask.
Sooo...If you happen to have a line on 100+ up to 750 metric tons of HSM 1 or HSM 2 scrap, please drop an email to george@ure.net.
Thursday June 12, 2008 Truth In Marketing: A Constant-Dollar Life With the world on the verge of a Greater Depression, some of the (nontraditional/non corpgov) media are starting to take serious note of "Spiraling Unemployment and Inflation". Even if you're not a reader of Marxist thought (and my great great grandfather Andrew Ure was bad-rapped by Marx since the mid 1800's, BTW), you may find it becoming more and more difficult to deny, as Mike Whitney's Global Research article calls it: "Economic depression in America: Evidence of a withering economy is everywhere."
So I ask myself this simple question: What would happen is there were a Truth in Marketing Law that required all financial claims to be stated as inflation-adjusted/constant dollars?
Suppose, for example, you were going to get a car loan. The going rate of interest was 6.63%. Because the prevailing rate of inflation is about 4 percent, the real cost of the loan is on the order of 2.63%.
Before you conclude that "George has flipped out" and is siding with the bankers, consider what that would do on the savings account side.
Let's say that a big bank offers to pay 1/2 of 1% interest (0.5%) on your money. They would be required to report that their real interest rate is negative 3.5%.
Similarly, a money-market firm which advertises a 3.5% return would be required to advertise that their real return is negative 0.5%.
Even the US government would not be exempt. If they offered T Bills at 4.02 % interest and the prevailing rate of inflation was 4% then they would be required to advertise "Park your money here for 0.02% interest!: --- I mention this because I am looking at various ways to park the little bit of cash that we have excess to our checking account. Just a few dollars, but where do you put money if you are lucky enough to actually have no debt on your primary home?
Of, if you're a young person starting out and you have the great habit of thrift, where do you put money that you're saving for a new home (for example) where you can get a real - or close to - positive real return. --- My kids are probably typical. They are young enough (30'ish) not to have figured out the long-term pernicious impacts of inflation. If you were saving $500 a month toward your dream right now, where would you park your money?
I submit that it would be a lot easier if the government required that all claims of interest and returns be stated both in nominal terms and in terms that reflect the current prevailing rate of inflation or deflation so that people could easily see how messed up the economy is and how the deck is stacked against hard-working, value producing Americans. --- Hell, as long as we're at it, let's pass two other reforms at the same time. Let's bring back Usury Laws. These would prevent any lending institution of any flavor from charging more than 8% more than the prevailing (government reported) inflation rte. That would end the predatory lending practices of banks that charge people today in excess of 30% in some cases.
And let's actually tie the financial indices to something like constant 2000 dollars. What would this do, you're wondering?
With the Dow closing at 12,083.77 yesterday, we would have to honestly admit that the dollar really only has 79.8702% of the purchasing power it had in 2000 using the government's own figures, which, it could be argued, are a little suspect themselves.
So, what should the constant dollar Dow be reported as? Yesterday's Dow close times 0.79870290647987668027123950704057 is 9651.3422202343394327611958179916, but to keep things simple, how about calling it a Dow of 9,631?
One more? Declare that bankers can not use terms like credit when referring to a debt incurred by a consumer. The Federal Reserve leads the effort to blur reality on this score by constantly referring to "Consumer Credit. As is evident in only a second or two of reflection, the bankers are looking at things from their side of the ledger. On the consumer's side, what the banker says is a 'credit' is a consumer debt.
Once we figure out some way to start talking about the economy in correct and HONEST terms, I expect we will be able to see our way clear to new solutions and reforms unshaded by the shysters of the financial industries who have spent millions in mis-stating economic reality in order to victimize hard working Americans. --- California's Central Valley Business Times reports that "Lenders take back $10 billion in foreclosed California homes." And that's just in May.
My personal benchmark for the worth of anyone running for office (or the corpgov "regulators" they in turn appoint, is whether they are willing to talk about everything in constant dollar terms.
To do otherwise is dishonest, misleading, and in my view shows criminal intent to mislead and defraud consumers.
Dead Cats Bounce: Still in the Woods We're not out of the woods yet, even if a predictable 'dead cat bounce' shows up again in the market. As I noted in the special update which was posted mid-morning on Wednesday, Robin Landry has been tracking an extremely bearish count that could unwind in the next week or two.
If it was just Landry, you might be tempted to dismiss it. But he's far from alone. A couple of our long-time readers/contributors are seeing it the same way - chance of a mini-crash over the next week or two.
If there's a 'good' thing about the market, it's that two things have become increasing clear to me. First, the cryptic note that I received from the economic fractalist, Gary Lammert, Thursday afternoon of last week which read simple "George, Good luck to you" now needs no further explanation, although I haven't heard back from him with details about what the ultimate fractal workout of this decline could be..
Another long-time reader, who we'll just call RM, wouldn't be surprised at a 'mini-crash' either.
With any luck, both will contribute more details to their outlooks, but for now a simple "not good" should suffice. --- While my position in the market is simple (I'm not in equities, thanks), those willing to play against the PPT could consider the options strategy I outlines for Peoplenomics subscribers last weekend. However, that said, remember I still have a few thou in tax loss c/f's left to burn from a $50K loss several years back trying to out-gut the Fed/PPT in the 2002/2003 period. This is really the time to use extreme caution and like going into a casino, don't bet money you can't afford to lose. --- The start of trading today will be marked with a small pullback in oil as the dollar has gained a bit, but any rally today will likely be tempered by the BIG number due out tomorrow which is the Consumer Price Index.
Capital Lost Another reason we are not 'out of the woods' yet in the markets is that there has been a huge amount of capital/life savings in home equity wiped out by the markets. For example, one headline this week notes that "Home price drop means $4 trillion in lost capital." If you were saving for a retirement and part of your plan involved downsizing from a McMansion to a McCabin, you're likely too late for that move...profitably, anyway.
Depression and Depression As the economy continues to chill, we are reading how rising debt loads are leading to more sleepless nights for the American worker. But, not to worry; "More pills for all hands!". Like that will really solve anything, LOL.
Monstrous Decision The folks who build and have made a good brand out of Monster Cables for your hifi and HD/home theater money pit have decided to get into the wifi end of things. The technology they will be using is called ultra wideband (UWB) and it will allow a transmitter to throw an HD signal up to 30-feet, so you don't need to run cabling all over the house. Coax being one thing, but running HDMI cables is another.
We might even put some of it into the ranch, although I have to wonder what the impact of metal studs I used in some of the walls here will do to the UWB signal as metal studs tend to reflect microwave energy all over the place and I don't know how susceptible to multipath it is. --- Electronics lesson on the day: Ghosts in analog TV are caused by more than one signal arriving at slightly different times. Although digital techniques can eliminate 'ghosting', the price paid is using some kind of error correction overhead...so it will be cool to see how well UWB does at the upper end of it's range (say 30 feet) in an environment where there's multipath. Many office buildings use metal studs, so if you're planning to rebroadscast HD from the conference room video center to your laptop you might take the multipath issue into consideration.
Electionbeering InBev's bid for Anheuser-Busch seems to be running into election year politics. Now, someone besides me may be driven to drink by the election silly season.
China Cooling The consumer price index in China is moderating - down to 7.7% in the latest reporting month. Feel sorry for them?> Quick, run out and buy something made in China, LOL. --- G-8 finance ministers are meeting in Japan. Why I haven't been invited as a guest speaker is a mystery...I'd love to have just 15 minutes of PowerPoint time with them...although I'd yield 5 of my minutes to the Mogambo...
How Cool Is That? A report out Thursday on Live Science notes that the lack of sunspots has continued - and if you believe as some scientists do that a lack of sunspots means solar cooling, then this coming winter might be chillier than most. An inconvenient cycle, to be sure, especially for the global warming and 'get'cher carbon credits' hucksters.
'Them Winds" Tornado in a Scout Camp Four dead from this in Iowa. This year's tornado unusually strong tornado trend continues to grow.
'Them Floods" Waters continue to rise in the upper Midwest. Despite the drop momentarily in wheat, I still expect those prices will rise now that the upper Midwest is flooding, too. An important temporal marker says the time monks when you see a grain elevator wash by on teevee...
"One More War Before He Leaves?" Department "All options open' on Iran says Bush" reads one headline. 'Out of time" figures Iran's president who continues holding up the equivalent of 'Bomb Here' signs.
Judge and the Farm Animal Pix? "Judge in port tempest has distinguished career" says the headline. But distinguished by what, we wonder? The story reads in part: the judge..."told the [LA] Times he thought the material on his [web] site, which included a video of a man cavorting with a sexually aroused farm animal, couldn't be seen by the public. The judge said he didn't believe any of the images were obscene." WTF?
All the News That Fits And some that falls out, too, such as what falls out of bikinis in Kanab, Utah, which is about to lift its bikini...ban.
--- snip and save section --- Coping: Voluntary Moves A while back, April or so, one of our long-time readers in Chicago up and moved his family to New Zealand. I keep forgetting to post what it's like for an American family to land in a strange country after living in the Windy City.
Our intrepid reader recounts his first morning in a new country (Wellington, NZ) this way:
When you have a friend/reader who actually decides to go out and live another part of the world experience, it's very interesting the things you can learn.
Our Chicago to NZ transplant, for example, who's graciously allowed me to repost a few things from his private blog such as "first morning" has also turned up some other useful bits of information.
For example, he recounts how he's not got a motorized skateboard for getting around here and there. Of course in America, land of the free so we're told, if you try riding a motorized skateboard around you'll likely end up with a ticket (or worse). Yet the more civilized people of NZ seem to have overlooked throwing our reader in jail or even writing him tickets over it.
I also learned from his site about a new kind of desert - new to me, that is. It's called a palova in Kiwi land and our reader describes it as...
And, it turns out, the folks in Wellington as just as picky about their espressos as are folks in the US who have serous caffeine requirements His discussion of the role of a Thermalblock in the making of NZ latte's deserves serious study:
It's fun to read this fellow's posts - and he calls once in a while with updates, like to advise me that New Zealanders are not getting many breaks on food prices even though the country is a net food exporter. That's because so much of their food is exported that the locals end up paying global market prices. Remind me to ask him about whether they get their tomatoes recalled...
Every so often, I'll pass along more on this family's experience of moving to a new country. He's not alone, mind you. Seems a number of our readers have decided to go on global walk-about lately.
You may remember that our once Houston Bureau Chief is now doing development deals in Indonesia and another is working on retirement planning in Brazil.
NZ Seeds Curiously, I was reminded to post our transplant's reports about relocating, by a note from another reader in New Zealand. This one has a 'heads up' kind of report on seeds:
If you recall what the time monks had been telling us earlier this year: grains were going to gain, and judging by the Midwest flooding going on, there's like to be continued pressure (not to mention a lack of seeds) as time marches on.
We Are Not "Safe" Looking for a little safe to put a little this or that in? Rotsa ruck...
Beyond the Indy Index Rob, creator of the Indiana Jones Index of the economy is back with a new index idea:
Hmmm... I will just put my seeds and palova in a small safe if I can find one, and wait patiently for 'em while having an espresso... ---- Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net ---- end snip and save section ---
Wednesday June 11, 2008 Special Mid Day Update: "Pucker Factor" Well, with the market down about 160 points, I called the prince of mirth, Robin Landry and said "Say Robin, old boy, that's not the sound of money rushing off the edge of the financial world, is is it?" The Prince of Mirth answered...
G: What's larger?
Landry email rlandry@allegiance.tv ) has been watching markets longer than most, so I value his take on it. Especially because I told you about several months back, he was rolling his managed accounts into cash positions before we got started on this downside run...I guess now we see why...
'Net Reality Check: HAARP Says 'Not Us' You may recall a week or so back, I wrote an email to the folks who run the HAARP program and asked them whether they were operating at either the time of the Myanmar Cyclone or the China Earthquake. My email, just to refresh your memory was as follows:
On Tuesday, I received an answer from them:
There will no doubt be a lot of people who will continue to write on the web that HAARP could cause earthquakes, that there are somehow new developments in "scalar technology" that bobble the mind and move the frontiers of physics. But, I challenge any of the scalar adherents to put up something that will beat the "inverse-square" law of physics when it comes to radio waves. Because if they could put up such a design, then I'd sure as hell build a ham radio antenna that way rather than the designs that have been around a long time. --- All of which is not to say that all antenna designs that can be invented have been. Don't get me wrong. But now that I'm approaching a personal hot-button here (there's a reason I have 29 acres of land in East Texas - I like building long wire HF arrays) let's look as some science.
Some of the antennas which I've looked at which have some pretty cool properties. One example is the Controlled Current Distribution antenna (CCD) that Dave Kelley, AI7R builds over in Chandler, AZ. Almost as quiet as a loop type antenna and extremely good low-to-ground performance. But, does it cross the chasm and beat inverse-square? Nope - and no claims have been made that this antenna does that.
One antenna that may have some potential to enter into the scalar realm is the 'cross field antenna' (CFA). However, while there are sites that have reference to the CFA's in relationship to "TransMaxwellian Physics" the reality is that the antenna, which was developed by professor Maurice Hately, Dr. Fathi Kabbary, and with help from Dr. Brian Stewart, is a compact-size transmitting antenna that appears to rely on magnetics rather than voltages, to achieve it's objectives.
I've always lumped the CFA in the 'magnetic antennas" category which I first became aware of with the AEA Isoloop antenna which was a small-sized, magnetics based antenna, and a follow-on product from MFJ Electronics, the MFJ-1786 antenna. Again, small-size, a different interpretation of Maxwell, but is there any cross-over into scalar results (something better than inverse-square law performance? Nope, not that I'm aware of. --- Spectrum Speculation: So why would the Defense Department even be involved in HAARP, then? If they are just studying radio waves, what would be their interest?
Turns out lots of things. Some examples of projects that would be worthwhile and engineerable without bending the laws of physics. Remember, these are guesses only - no insider knowledge required here:
Let's say that I wanted to build an ultra-ultra light, ultra-ultra high, unlimited endurance flying surveillance platform. Something that would be so light that it would not be able to carry its own power supply. One proven way to get power from the ground to a flying device would be to use microwave power. You'd simply have some kind of airfoil, put a microwave antenna on it, and off you'd go.
Years ago, there was a Popular Science article talked about the possibility of collecting power from a satellite-based solar array in orbit and then beaming it back to earth using microwaves, and converting it to useful power back on earth. Obviously, the reverse, beaming it back up could work too, and there might be military applications, such as unlimited duration platforms.
The problem with such a design becomes apparent, however, when you plug in the radio horizon formula. You remember microwave is a 'line-of-sight' medium, and is prone to water absorption depending on frequency? Your satellite TV ever drop out during a heavy rainstorm? Satellite TV's are in the 3-5 GHz and 11-14 GHz kind of range.
If your "power station" to run a hypothetical surveillance platform were transmitting high power microwave energy from the ground, and you had something that would fly at (just to pull out a number out of the hat) 103,421 feet, then that gives us a square root of height of 321 miles times 1.23, or about 394 miles (not counting microwave dip over the earth, which is a whole other discussion). Obviously, 400-miles is not enough range to get your platform to circle over world hot spots, right?
But now instead of line-of-sight microwave, what would happen if you were down around 3 MHz on the HF spectrum. There, you'd be able to get energy to go halfway around the world, because HF, especially at night or using gray line propagation (will someone please write up gray line for Wikipedia, sheeh!) , bounces all over heck and gone. Yet with enough transmitter power and antenna gain (plus a huge steerable antenna array like HAARP at Gakona, AK has...), you might be able to get some power to an ultra-ultra light platform.
There are plenty of other wild concepts that would be of potential military import which a high-powered transmitting setup could test. (Some day ask me about my Skunk Works jacket patch, LOL).
Other concepts like what? Oh, maybe there's a military application of some new kind of evanescent wave (a derivative of Snell's Law) which would be less susceptible to interception because it would perform like the reciprocal of a 'scalar' wave, dissipating at an exponential decay rate over distance. If you could figure out some way to engineer such waves, presently only a near-field effect, then you might have a radio system where you could dial in comms at the squad level, but because the wave could disappear at an exponential rate as distance from the squad increased. --- Anyway, that's where it sits this morning. HAARP say 'not us' on the quake or the typhoon, and I'm inclined to believe them because with only a half cup of coffee's worth of pondering, there's no shortage of engineerable radio projects with decent strategic payoffs, whether it's over-the-horizon power transmission, improvements in over-the-horizon radar, perhaps in concert with AWACS mounted back-scatter monitors, not to mention 'disappearing radio waves' which has obvious stealth applications.
Still, if you happen to dream up a 'scalar antenna' design from your zero point energy work, and it really beats inverse-square laws, please send it along. I'll sign whatever non-disclosures you want, but I'd sure like to try it out on the next 20-meter ham radio contest...Plus I've got the room here at the ranch to hang up to a quarter mile of wire, so don't be afraid to think big.
Meantime, I'm one of those open-minded "Show me" types. And on those small magnetic antennas, I'm still wondering how much is antenna radiation and how much is radiating feedlines?
I'll let you know when I get my 570 foot horizontal loop up...
Is there a lesson here for Internet media? Like: If you're going to write, why not ask questions? It's what real writers do - not just pick up stories from elsewhere and present them as facts...Ask sources, maybe? --- (Could some of us from the Palestine TX Amateur Radio Club rent the HAARP antenna array for a contest maybe? Bet we could kick butt on 75 & 160 meters...)
Worry At the Margins Although the stock market seemed to be headed for a higher open early this morning, folks who are knowledgeable long-term market watchers are concerned. One, my friend Robin Landry, says that it's an especially dangerous time because of elections.
With food prices jumping, Landry is worried we might see a knee-jerk reaction to increase commodity margins substantially in what he figures would be a misguided attempt to control food prices. It's a valid point, due in part to the flooding of the US corn crop due to the rotten weather in the upper Midwest this past week, and that's resulted in corn prices going through the roof.
"The problem," says Landry, "Is that if they were to raise the margin requirements on commodities across the board, they would cause a lot of hedge players to have to unload something to maintain commodity positions. That could cause a bad ripple into the stock market.. Politicians right now are only thinking about one thing - votes."
His concern seems real enough: With many major commodities making strong upward moves, an increase of margins might seem like a way to flush out speculators. But, it could also dry up liquidity, and that's an equally (if not more) dangerous condition.
We should get some sense of how the markets will fare when the new energy supply and demand reports come out today, but in the very short term, it looks to Landry and others (including me) like another leg down is just about at hand.
I Call Them the Oil Party... ...because of headlines like this one: "Senate Republicans block windfall taxes on Big Oil" In other words, at a time when we're hearing that there's plenty of oil in the ground and that all it will take is a massive investment, what is happening? Little investment and lots of paydays for directors, shareholders and hedge funds. A little mercy at the pumps? A little more investment in plant and equipment to bring down prices or develop new resource? LOL, what planet did you say you were from? --- Scarcity builds price. Oil bounced up to $132 in Asia - and because of the dollar weakening, the price of gold bounced back. --- THE single most telling turn of a phrase this week (so far) was from the Dallas Fed president who while talking to a Council on Foreign Relations group I heard refer to the Dollar as a 'faith-based currency.
Got that? In other words, the Dollar isn't a specie backed currency, there's no mode of exchange behind it. In fact, if you whip out your wallet, you'll see the term "Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States" no longer appears on the Dollar. Just a claim that the note is good for all debts public and private. --- All of which brings up a fascinating legal question - which I suppose only matters to people who are in jail doing time for counterfeiting: If the Federal Reserve is a private (non-governmental) unit, how can the Treasury Department enforce and gain convictions on counterfeiting laws? Just a dumb question, but seem pertinent to the line of inquiry, LOL
It's a Bit Late Department "President Bush regrets his legacy as a man who wanted war" headlines the UK's Times Online this morning. Hmmm...so why did Admiral Fallon get bounced, then? there's a little gap between what GW does and what GW says don't you think? And then there's the $23-billion of lost, stolen or simply not accounted for funds... Gee, I hope this doesn't sound too harsh... --- To focus on the Bush Wars is a little narrow-minded in my view. Instead, I simply note that what generally cost $100 in 1999 now generally costs $129.42 using the Fed inflation calculator. One of the tangible legacies of the Bush administration is not only real inflation over 30% (or more if you look at your grocery bills from 1999) is that the deficit spending corpgov has been on has laid a path for every-higher inflation rates in the future. --- Don't forget: Inflation is NOT prices going up. It's the purchasing power of your money going down - that's the ugly little secret that corpgov financial scams don't want you to remember. We also have to wonder if that's not why 'open borders' are so important - so more gullible folks can hear the 'free lunch' promise and buy into it...
NVG Sale And, as if the above doesn't make the point, how about the headline in the Marine Times today (which they picked up from USA Today) that "Theft Worry Plagues Sales of NVG's to Iraq"? So let me see, we short-change American troops to give the Iraqi's better gear? Who's in charge around here, GW?
--- snip and save section --- Coping: George's Reading List In my current batch of books due to arrive today or tomorrow, because of all the controversy over BlackLight Power and their talk of hydrinos, I ordered the book about their inventor "Genius inventor: The controversy about the work of Randell Mills, America's Newton, in historical and contemporary context".
On a more practical level, there's "Machine shop Trade Secrets: A guide to manufacturing machine shop practices".
My next batch of books from Amazon includes:
Using the free shipping option, it's $57.81. If all you do is watch TV, and you're not reading a book a week, you are starving your brain! --- By the way, the last book, Plan C is by Pat Murphy who has done some interesting study of how Cuba transitioned from a dependent economy to a pretty decent modern society with lots of community agriculture even in urban areas. Not like he's the only one to notice. An AP story out this week headlines "Cuba's urban farming program a stunning success" --- Ah, but we're so much more advanced than Cuba: They are enslaved by a government which we don't approve of. Yet our own 'high definition' media enslavement is not apparent to us...
Trends Further trend observations from a reader:
Remember our discussion about charity gardens?
"So Long and Thanks for all the Fish" Besides being a great piece of music from 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" it also makes a poignant accompaniment as you read in the NY Times about how we might be seeing "Sardines with your Bagel" as the end of Pacific salmon runs is in sight. --- Universe is constantly poking us with it's sense of wry humor. Ju8st as the salmon are disappearing, we read that "Scientists find monkeys who know how to fish." Now the question is "For what?"
Acetone Fumes I want to reiterate my warning about using acetone in your gas - if it doesn't work, don't blame me and you do this at your own risk!
Life on High Stuck in 100+ heat? Some ideas...
Those mister hoses can also work...we keep a sun oven handy for hot weather cooking at the ranch. Another option: Hang out in the basement - usually the coolest place in the house. A great place for a ham radio or shortwave listening shack, too...
About Those Banksters Yesterday I explained how the non-producers (Agent-2 types) have scammed the value producers (Agent-1) types into thinking they (A2's) have some inalienable right to print money, which is why I call 'em banksters. This morning, a reader follows up:
Bring some collateral with you though. A bundle of bank card bills will be just fine, lately, thanks... --- Send snip and save ideas to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Tuesday June 10, 2008 Whipsaw and Spin Department: Yo-Yo Markets Did you see that dead cat bounce on Monday? A fine DCB if there ever was one. And, it might continue today for a spell. Why? Well, denial is working through markets at double-time and we see it almost everywhere we look lately. ---- Take for example the International Energy Agency which has decided to cut its forecast for energy consumption growth. This is the slowly screwed workout that comes with recession in the West, versus the manic fast screw that was coming from serial bubbles. Thanks, Al! --- Say, you don't think the markets will back off because they Fed rate drops are probably over, do you? --- And there's this to mull: the balance of trade out this morning is 'nicht so gut'
OK, so it's the highest in 13 months, does this somehow surprise you? Have you no faith in the People's Economist telling you that they payback for lkiving on borrowed money is a weaker currency?
Will someone PLEASE tell me what a strong dollar policy is, besides a mantra to repeat while praying that we can keep the game going longer by trying to convince people that we deserve to leach off the rest of the world to support an unsustainable lifestyle? If you lived like the government finances, you'd be broke and in jail for fraud... ---- If you're still in the markets, rotsa ruck. A frequent read says he's worked out what sounds like a 12-step program to unhitch from the markets...
But wait! Me listen to Roger? What about him reading my case for the Second Depression that's been forming up since 1997, huh? Besides, the 13th reason to blow out of markets is that paper assets have never 'lasted forever' and every time there's a roll-over, there's a huge opportunity for people who roll out near the top and then remonetize with whatever fiat scam comes next. That's the overarching reason to to be out of markets and that's the one which drives the others down at a more fundamental level. The whole 'interest' concept requires money creation at its core, which in sense means money creation must occur and that's the fly in the whole Western Capitalism deal...the ugliest of secrets. --- Just to make the discussion of unsound money and how the scam works really clear in academic terms, suppose we set up a closed multi-agent system with two players. (Sound's Ivy League'ish, huh?).
Each has $10 dollars. No more money can be created. None.
Agent 1 has a piece of land, Agent 2 has a shovel.
Now, Agent 1 borrows the shovel from Agent 2 at an agreed value of $5 and an interest rate of 50% per day. Agent 1 then uses the borrowed $5 shovel to put in a garden. He puts in magnificent magic beans that grow overnight. $5 worth of beans, in fact. The next day, he wants to sell the crop to Agent 2 for $5.
Before the sale, Agent 1 has: His original $10, a $5 shovel and $5 worth of beans. ($20 total) But he owes $5 for the shovel and $2.50 of interest.
But here's where it gets dicey: The banksters would argue that creation of a crop 'creates value' and therefore more money should be printed and poured into the system. "What wrong with that?" you wonder?
If we agree to the fiat money scam, the part which none of the banksters ever answer (it's sleight of hand, you see) is to answer the question where do we 'inject' the money?
Do we allow Agent 2 to print it up so he can buy the beans?
That would give Agent 2 "Free money", right, and the only thing he's done is printed money!!!
Well, that's exactly how the global fractional reserve banking scam works. Agent 2 is allowed to (wink wink, nudge nudge) constantly printing up money on the excuse that it's needed to offset the 'value created' by all this magic bean farming.
But, why isn't the farmer printing up money? I mean, he's doing the value creation, right? "Oh no!" scream the banksters. "He's got the value of his beans and besides Agent 2 needs to be able to buy beans for food! It's a social necessity!"
See how the bankster spin works? In the evnd, all of us (Agent 1-types who produce value) accept the notiong that Agent-2 types (banksters) have some right to print up paper money and thus over time end up in total control of the economic system.
They live in a scared spitless state, hoping no one will wake up to the sleight of hand about where money is 'injected' into the system. "We need to inject money to offset the value of the crop" is their argument., Well, horse puckey.
I've had lots of economic wizards try to explain why Agent 2 should be allowed to print up money for just lending his shovel and how Agent 2 isn't engaging in sleight of hand by claming the right to print money!
Here's the real deal: In a closed economic system the land and shovel have equal value, and Agent 1 borrows the shovel for his whole $10, leaving him with a shovel, land and no cash while Agent 2 has $20 and nothing else. When the crop comes in Agent 1 sells half to Agent 2 for $10 and retains ownership of the shovel. In this way, the producers over time roll into control of the non-producers.
This outlines the threat posed by sound in stark relief. In order for the non-producers to get the upper hand, they must be the sole proprietors of the printing press. By what Right!!???!!!??? Nevertheless, this is exactly what's going on in the world today. It's why government must grow, purchasing power must be watered down, and the producers power crushed. We're all renting shovels and letting the non-producers print money. This has only one inevitable outcome. You lose the house and your job and you get hoodwinked out of all of your life's work because the Agent-2 types have a grand scam going.
There, don't you feel better now? --- Not getting too much play today is an excellent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard article in the Telegraph online editions that explains how the "Federal Reserve and ECB are in no mood to save us from the consequences of our debt". --- Speaking of yo-yo's: There's a good analysis by Chris Ciovacco "The Reverse Wealth Effect" which deserves a read. The point about reverse wealth effects is amplified when you think about how deflation can dig in (later this year or early next) in the banking business as that fractional reserve banking system which allows one saved dollar to turn into 10 (or more lately) loaned out, works the other way. Once deflation sets in, it will be a 24-kt bugger to unseat.
Holding Paper? I've had a couple of calls from people asking me if having a third party hold your gold and silver in trust is a good idea or bad. My continued answer (as there are rumors about today about one of the paper-issuing players) is "Holding paper in lieu of gold or silver is NOT the same as holding physical gold or silver." Follow this advice and you will never have to listen to, nor worry about, rumors.
Housing Bubble Blame Game MSNBC headlines it "How HUD's mortgage policy fed the crisis: Agency labeled risky loans 'affordable' and finance firms bought them up..." I still don't see much about how 'easy' appraisers got business and the 'tough ones' got shut out by the mortgage peddlers...but in time I guess...
Good Bye Quake Lake What's draining faster than a cup of coffee on a cold morning? (Or faster than my nose when I'm out of Kleenex?
Downplaying 'Them Winds' I see the National Weather Service has updated their tornado chart. To keep it from looking as ominous, I see they have gone back many years to add data to downplay the size of this year's outbreaks...
Dolophincide? A mass grounding and dying of dolphins is reported in this BBC video...poisoned oceans, lack of food?
Run-Up to Iran A story in the Jerusalem Post this morning headlines: "Jewish general named new USAF chief". -=-- Let me see, William "The Fox" (but no first use, thanks) Fallon was bounced from the Navy and now the latest turnover in the USAF - which we understand happened while the annual USAF brass meeting was being held at Wright-pat last week. Messages here to fall in line? --- Congressman Dennis Kucinich, perhaps coincidentally, is again calling for the impeachment of George Bush. I suppose it would be inconvenient to mention how the democorps (less Kucinish and a few others) have all bowed down to the money-dispensers at the corpgov trough and have backed out of electioneering promises to actually do something about The Bush Wars. Here's a worthy quote: The corpgov/Pelosicrats are now making the case that Bush will be gone in 7 1/2 months, so why bother. How stoopid (sic) do they think we are?
--- snip and save section --- Coping: Attack on Pleasure Boating An email from West Marine showed up this morning. Apparently, they haven't forgotten that I lived on a large offshore sailboat for 10+ years in the Pacific Northwest and used to spend oodles on keeping the boat shipshape. But here's their email:
Learning Ham Radio A ham (KI4VLW) sends this reminder if you've ever thought about getting into ham radio as a hobby (no Morse code requirement anymore...)
Yeah, this really is one of those weekends when ham radio ops will be "out standing in their field" so to speak. The whole purpose of field day is to take off for the hinterlands and set up a radio on unfamiliar ground. Should there ever be a major earthquake (between June 21 and Sept 1 of this year, for example) there will be a whole cadre of radio operators who will have emergency communications set ups so that people in disaster-impacted areas can get health and welfare messages (traffic in ham lingo) to friends and relatives worldwide. Plus, it's a backup for government systems and even the phone systems which may go down.
The ARRL (the national ham radio organization) is putting up a station locator - and most hams are more than willing to show off their comms skills to the curious... --- My first introduction to ham radio emergency message handling was watching/helping my late neighbor Norb, W7IMF make dozens and dozens of phone patches during the aftermath of the Good Friday quake in Alaska back in 1964. Ove r the years I've run a few patches from military ships at sea and overseas troops. The US military has a long tradition of supporting ham radio for service members with the Military Affiliate Radio System that in the days before satellites handled lots of phone patch traffic for overseas service personnel.
The way the phone patch works, to use the Good Friday Quake as an example, a ham in Alaska would talk to a ham in Seattle, who would use a piece of equipment called a phone patch which would let the Alaska transmission be received in Seattle where it would tie directly to a lower 48 phone line. All the users needed to remember was to say "over" so the hams at each end could flip from transmit to receive. Since that time, I've usually kept a phone patch or two around my ham shack, just in case. It's one of those arts that's been going by the wayside due to reasonably reliable phone systems.
Still, when the crap hits the fan, ham radio gets through when everyting else has crashed. Take the recent example a couple of weeks back in the aftermath of the Chinese earthquake, "Chinese officials give Kudos to Amateur Radio Operators" and they reference the Chinese Radio Sports Association for their disaster recovery/relief work..
Ham radio is growing in stature as a sport. How else would you describe lobbing antennas up into trees with solar panels or generators and 'trolling' for rare stations across the radio spectrum? In the sport, you can get scoring points for low power, emergency/solar power, and all kinds of other multipliers. Single operator, multi-operator, single band, multiband, the list goes on.
But at it's core, Field Day 2008 is about being ready for what we all hope never happens. But hams will be ready...just in case.
Charity Gardens Something that popped out of predictive linguistic modelspace a while back is the notion of charity gardens. Already making headlines in USA Today with the headline "Food banks ask gardeners to grow extra for hungry."
All of this is by way of reminding you that if the squash go wild this year, you can always give the extra away to a good cause.
European Banking I reported recently about how a European bank was deliberately discouraging an American from opening an account. Seems this is becoming widespread as another reader checks in with this:
Nice to know that even though we may not be secure from terrorism, we are at least secure from some bankers...
Global Coastal Events The rising sea levels story continues to grow quietly in background. We're expecting this to get legs and become a global media issue in spring to mid 2009, but you can get a leg up on things by watching the story beginning to rumble in a few places now.
Better Mileage Yet another reader passing on the acetone in the gas trick:
The one thing you want to be careful of is that acetone can eat through certain plastics, so if it causes problems, don't be coming back to me with your tale of woe... Still, 5 MPG sounds like a good risk-reward ratio... --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Monday June 9, 2008 Simple Advice: Sit On Your Wallet This weekend was a chart-talk for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers because while I am bullish on the market through about mid-summer, the action last week was unnerving enough to cause me to wonder "Gee, what if (4) in Elliott terms is really a (1) of 1 of a larger degree? (See white numbers in this here chart and imagine that (4) becoming a (1):
The point I'd make this morning is that while there is still a bullish case that could take the Dow to 15,000+ over the coming couple of months, at some point, everyone has to ask the Big Ugly "What happens when we run out of easy money, willing buyers, and seriously difficult times?" --- If appropriate - and if I have time - there may be updates during today's trading session today or tomorrow for that matter, if the bear comes roaring back.
I mention this because of Bob Hitt's concern (www.astroecon.com) that this kind of high tension environment is when we seem to get emotional outburst events that are either timed or are just plain amazing coincidences designed/or just happening, that ground out a lot of emotional energy.
While the Tokyo stabber who killed 7 over the weekend seemed like it would be too small a deal to do any real 'grounding', it's nevertheless making headlines around the world...strange conditioning, huh?
So, if for example, the market heads south after the initial dead cat bounce this morning (DCB) and then there's a large-scale power outage that took down an exchange, or a computer problem, or a fire, or any number of other events, that would give the developing emotional maelstrom a chance to dissipate into something other than the market heading south again, then yes, I'd likely do a mid-session update.
Sitting on your wallet seems like a fine idea until the technical picture resolves. --- In a conversation with Friday with Jim Goulding ( www.jamesgoulding.com ), we kicked around how much money the PPT has at its disposal for intervention operations in the event things get off to a particularly sour start early this week. In round numbers, it looks like the Fed's SOMA Account (System Open Market Account holdings) is around $485.6 billion (plus a dinner out for two in any city you care to name). So, they are not short of ammo for interventions, should that become desirable.
Yes, some of this money is earmarked for dispersal later in the month to fund some previous commitments (BS, remember?) but no reason not to make some pin money this week.
One way to do this would be for the Fed to play the options strategy I outlined for subscribers Sunday, but whether they do or not, I doubt you or I will ever hear about itLOL. --- The really smart guys (like Goulding) will be watching later today as we hear from the Fed's Timothy Geithner who will be speaking at the NYC Grand Hyatt at 17:15 UTC while across the pond, the ECB's Trichet is speaking in Paris at 17:30 UTC.
[You do have both UTC and local time clocks at your trade station, right? One of our regular readers, honeymooning on Kauai this week, I hope sleeps through this, LOL]
To be sure, there has been some serious 'messaging" going on between the Fed heads and the ECB banksters. NY Fed president Geithner has been calling for a 'global banking framework' while the ECB side has been hinting that a rate hike, not a decline, is likely what's coming next, so that that, you Colonials.
Of course, the illusion of money, of competition, and "freedom" is really a proxy belief system because the real powers have been busily slicing and dicing the world up for their own purposes at the Bilderberger meetings, which went on over the weekend.
Rumors that Obama and Clinton were both in attendance are somewhat speculative (or are they?) but you'd think that if we had a real working/functional press corp that someone would have the balls to point out that with reported attendees like Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Secretary of State Condi Rice that something more than carefully massaged (sterile) press releases should be issued. Whatever happened to daylight democracy?
Private clubs have a right to be private clubs. But I'd argue that nothing Paulson or Rice does (short of a short list of national security items for Rice) should be 'off the record' and press excluded. After all, why are a couple of our highest leaders (like 'em or not) going to secret club meetings without public outrage, especially when such club meetings have a way of foreshadowing actual events in a 'beyond coincidence' kind of way?
Ooops! Wrong country. Wrong press corp. But speaking of sleepy-time down on the Fourth Estate...
Lest you think I'm the only one with a view of the corporate/government uber-klassen, consider if you will the remarks of once insider Dan Rather who according to Editor and Publisher "Hits press coverage of War -- and 'Corporate News'.
And, as if to vote for the kind of viewpoints I've expressed here before, Rather also used one of the phrases that the time monks of HPH have been using for a couple of years to describe the country's mental state of affairs - 'cognitive dissonance'. Check out the highlighted part of Rather's comments:
Is Rather a new champion of a stronger press? Well, that depends what you make of this video,
Is nothing as it seems? When unsure, sit on your wallet.
Roger That An urgent note from Roger Reynolds today is worth a read.
You can get on Roger's free email list by dropping a note to [randkreynolds@usa.net]. Nope, he's not selling anything that I know of.
Think Fast! A new super computer named Roadrunner has set a fresh world computing record. No word which OS it was using but I'm thinking it wasn't Vista...
Quake Window Opening? Although we don't get into a quake window for a 'big one' until June 21 to about September 1, the increased activity in Nevada certainly bears watching. 2 dead in a quake in Greece, too.
Oil Prices Keep your eye on the price of oil this week. It was up more than $10 a barrel last week, and G-8 energy ministers are trying to find ways to get more production out of OPEC. But, what's not being reported is the amount of water cut from the Middle East wells and Mexico rolling over into decline, just as the North Sea started dropping production a couple of years back.
What it looks like to me is that Peak Oil is really here, and what's going on right now is the corpgov types (and the oil party) are trying to keep a good spin on things so that the democorps can come in with the other version of the same old answers such that the PowersThatBe can retain their corporate oilgarchy (sic). --- Idle time: Stuck in traffic in Minneapolis? If you don't move for 3-minutes, you should shut down your engine says the city council there. They figure break-even for shutting your engine off is about 10-seconds.
Heck, this makes me want to get into the starter rebuild business... --- And with all the attention on oil, Iran is, in effect, holding up another "Bomb Here" sign by announcing that $150 dollars a barrel is coming this summer.
Why is it that when Iran says $150 everyone gets upset? When Goldman Sachs says it, it's taken as "Oh... so that's what's coming..." --- Am I the only one who notices that Iran is getting a little too zealous about their Uncle Sam tweaking? Do they have some kind of Big Ugly surprise planned in response to the pending attack by the US/Israel?
Of course, Israel is back pedaling on their hawkish comments last week. Why is obvious, right? Those remarks fuels part of the oil price jump and contributed to the Friday slap-down of the Dow.
Hot Times National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather alert for the Baltimore-Washington region. It's not just the high heat - it's the high humidity. --- I keep clicking on the Weather Service Storm Prediction Center page waiting for an update of the tornado chart...maybe today? It had been going something near vertical and maybe they are waiting till the data starts to look less ominous. Don't want to scare the sheep maybe? Oh, maybe someone is on vacation, then?
The Week Ahead Quick! Name the two funniest things that will happen this week on Friday the 13th.
#1 (give yourself 5 points if you get this one ) Real Time with Bill Maher" Friday.
#2 (give yourself 20 points if you get this one) The Friday Consumer Price Index numbers.
--- snip and save section --- Coping: New Crime: Ransomware One of our Ace IT readers, GK in Arizona, sends this urgent advisory which will keep you ahead of most everyday computer types. It deals with a new kind of virus called 'ransomware':
Who Wants to be a Millionaire? A report in US News is worth reading: "Is $1-million enough to retire on?"
The answer is 'yes' if you don't have caviar taste. Beer and mozzarella sticks and you'll make it OK.
The Real Price of Silver Just to update Peoplenomics subscribers on a point: The high premium I noted on the price of one ounce coins from the US Mint in this weekend's report was based on the 'proof' coins. There is a cheaper coin - the uncirculated silver Eagle. These are available for just $25.95.
At press time this morning, and using $17.36 as spot, that's still a 49.4% premium over spot silver. The gold premium is around 33%.
--- Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
News from Elliott
Wave International
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the powers That Be, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
But, the truth of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the waning days of 1999. It's not a very pretty picture, and it sort of gives away the other side of the story. You know, the one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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