Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news

---

Reader Note: Updated Daily!   If you don't see this page updated, hit your "Refresh" button (F5 in MSIE) 
This page is also mirrored here and may be available at http://www2.urbansurvival.com/week.htm   unblocked in some corp/gov offices.  Please bookmark both for use in event of communications disruptions.

 

The Housing Bill Coup Coup d’état

More important than the jobs report, which we'll get to in a minute, is keeping a clear understanding of the framework of socioeconomic operations.  So before we get distracted by the job report and other economic distractions du jour, let's look at how the Housing Bill just signed by the Decider changes the rules for small business.

 

If you think  you have jitters about the currently (and still) developing mess on Wall Street and financial institutions are melting down/having the runs/ and are being taken over, then as Pappy used to say: "Answer me this:"  What would you do if you have millions or billions that you were entrusted with by the public and you didn't have FDIC insurance?  Think about it like Bill Bush (no relation, we hope) of the  Columbus Dispatch has in this article here. 

 

How many accounts would it take to protect a billion in state tax receipts? Oh, say...if I have my glasses working right at this hour...10,000 accounts.

---

Although the Secretary of the Fedury, and the Chairman of the Bankers Reserve Board are trying to put a good face on things, when you think about things from a strategic planning standpoint, as I do for clients, you could almost get an outline of how local/county/state governments could be neutered/overwhelmed/usurped by the fedocracy if they somehow overnight didn't have any dough let in their operating accounts thanks to an unexpected bank failure.  And, ain't they all? 

 

It smacks of the perfect coup d’état. Local, County. State governments would be crawling on hands and knees to the feds looking for money if banks massively fail, and that money would either be given (with plenty of new strings) or what used to be a 'state' could be suddenly 'federalized' such that everything becomes part of the Kremlin's...ooops, I mean Washington's direct control.  And not a shot need be fired. With America's best and bravest off defending poppy fields, it's an alarming thought.

---

The amount of FDIC Insurance in 1980 was raised to  $100,000.  Now, not to be 'negative', but just to show how this operates just like a real insurance company, I'd point out that if FDIC coverage had kept pace with inflation alone (using the Federal Reserve's own calculator (left column) then FDIC insurance today should be $261,650.49 basis the 1980 coverage levels. OK, true that IRA accounts are insured to $250,000, but few financially literate people (and no one in my circle of friends) would put $250K in a long term account that doesn't keep up with inflation, but that's another issue.

---

I tuck all this away under the heading in my notes "If I were engineering a coup..."  I'm not - being a true-blue defender of the Constitution and all, but I'm not sure everyone is these days.  The lure of big money and power distorts a lot of thinking.

 

But a 'hats off' to the Columbus Dispatch for pointing out the gaping strategic planning issue that is getting almost no media play elsewhere.  Oh, yeah, the Housing Bill is just another slow-motion step in the Federalize Everything coup d’état which you're not supposed to notice.  It is, after all, for your own good.

 

I'll be watching how California fares as falling tax revenues mean layoffs and wage cuts for State workers. 

 

Bills: Slipping it to Us?

My commodities guy, JB, sent me a note asking it I had notice Senate Bill 511 passed in April.  Hmmm.. The Bill title: "Recognizing that John Sidney McCain, III, is a natural born citizen."  No big deal - military son - all fine with that.  But the sponsors are who?  Obama and 'whats-her-name?  Statesmanship, or something more?  The Club we're not party to, maybe?  Are McCain's new ads - getting ho-hum reviews - just a 'lay-down'?

---

And speaking of Bills: Remember I have been telling you about 'sneaking in' provision to the housing bill that would get all financial information piped to the government?  Well, sure enough, read this Mark Nestmann piece "Housing Bailout Bill: Say goodbye to untaxed Internet Transactions. " 

---

Slipping it to the tax-sheep by burying really ugly/insidious/onerous/invasive provisions into bills with different titles than what they conceal is becoming a regular tradition in Washington.  Why the corporate-owned press wasn't screaming about this is beyond me...but wait!  I think I just answered my own question. 

 

If we had honest lawmakers, the title of a bill ("Housing Bill" for instance) would reflect the sole contents of legislation.  Instead, the "Housing Bill" buries and carries a whole new taxing mechanism for the feds, as I told you about some weeks back.

 

There are several ways to look at this, particularly if we look at the top story this morning, which gets to the idea of how there could be a 'federalization' of local government if banks fail and local government can't make payroll without federal money and strings.  Clearly, the PowersThatBe agenda is to have the "income tax" extended to become a more thorough direct capitation. 

 

Shift the checkbook powers, and the rest will fall naturally.

---

At the macro level, what's really going on is that corporations are extending their subjugation of humans.  If you are a corporation, your tax is based on profits.  If you are a human, your tax is based on your slightly modified gross.  You loose. 

 

If you paid tax like a corporation, you might pay only on what you were able to save last year, and likely nothing at all if you had your 'headquarters' offshore.

 

I report every dime of income I make, of course, and recommend you do as well.  You can't fight this kind of battle through individual acts of tax protest.  The 'system' will get you. One against the many is not my kind of odds.

 

The place to change it is throwing incumbents out of office who have continued to press for most-favored-tax status of corporations over you and me.  Like Wikipedia notes:

"Individual income taxes often tax the total income of the individual (with some deductions permitted), while corporate income taxes often tax net income (the difference between gross receipts, expenses, and additional write-offs)."

Neither of the apparent (for now) frontrunners of The Party ( the brands republicorp & democorp being in reality just one corporate party - just see where their money comes from) offers to adjust this fundamental imbalance.  You get distracted with sideshow issus.

 

Corporations have more rights than you in many ways - taxing on net income just being one example.  They've hijacked the radio spectrum and owning that channel, they are now moving to 'take the hill' that is the Internet.  Taxation, web 2.0, access charges for content providers, it's all just ahead.  It's outrageous at best, treasonous at worst, and not anything like what the Framers envisioned.  Try to remember that the word "freedom" and "tax" are diametrically opposed.

 

Lobby-Mart

The WSJ headlines today that "Wal-Mart Warns of Democratic Win" via its store managers.  Can't have unions trying to off-set big corps, can we?

 

Unemployment Up Again

The government's newest unemployment figures are out:

"The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in July (-51,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while health care and mining continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons (8.8 million) and the unemployment rate (5.7 percent) rose in July. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 1.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.0 percentage point. (See table A-1.)

Over the month, the unemployment rates for adult men (5.3 percent) and whites (5.1 percent) edged up while the rates for adult women (4.6 percent), blacks (9.7 percent), and Hispanics (7.4 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for teenagers increased to 20.3 percent in July. The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.0 percent in July, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of reentrants to the labor force in July rose by 207,000 to 2.7 million. The number has increased by 623,000 over the past 12 months. The number of unemployed persons who had lost their last job was about unchanged over the month at 4.4 million, but has risen by 778,000 over the year."

 OK, here come the knee slappers - ready?  Manufacturing jobs down another 35,000 - thanks China!  You too, India!

 

Don't try to make sense of the CES Birth/Death Model, as it reports that non-farm month over month was down 1.458 million  but no, it's table doesn't add up, and on the press release page the national number was only down 51-thousand.

 

The unemployed/Underemployed rate was up to 10.8% of the workforce - but burger-flipping IT Directors are not supposed to be a worry.  Neither is the fact that a lot of this is based on a telephone incidental survey - and with phone numbers changing all the time, not to mention not counting discouraged workers or those who have had their benefits run out, jiust call me...er...skeptical is a nice word...

 

Rally? 

Well, no.  Unemployment going to a 4-year high and GM dropping  $15.5 billion in Q2 is not exactly confidence-inspiring...

 

Not Surprising Department

"Mexico criticizes US salmonella findings."

 

Suicide Over Anthrax

The one-time suspect in the Washington anthrax attack (2001) has committed suicide over the affair - reportedly new charges were being prepared at the time.

 

World Energy War: Russia's NG

Here's one from our Canadian correspondent who watches this stuff rather closely, being a fan of his country's tar sands and all...

"Last I read, about 2 weeks ago, that offer to buy ALL of the Turkmeni NG was laughed off!

Also, dunno if it's just propaganda, but supposedly Russia NEEDS Central Asian NG to supply Western Europe!

Supposedly, there is ONE Russian supergiant NG deposit, and it's been going for 2 generations, and ALL domestically-produced Russian NG is consumed internally.

If true, then expect MAJOR CENTCOM actions very shortly. (The CENT doesn't stand for 'CENTRAL ASIA' for nuthin!)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JG30Ag01.html 

---

Russia takes control of Turkmen (world?) gas By M K Bhadrakumar..."

Oh Ship!

A "P&O Cruises Australia  ship hit by south Pacific storm; 40 hurt" 23-foot swells and 50 knot winds can do that...

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping:  Wrong Border Defense

The mindlessness of anti-terrorism efforts continues to amaze me.  While thousands come and go unchecked on America's southern (and northern) borders, we read now how the Department of Homeland "Security" is now claiming that they have a right to take the laptop of a traveling US Citizen to an off site location and unload pretty much whatever they please off your laptop - and get this - then share it around the Federale's Brotherhood without check.

 

Creepy

A reader who's been watching our target date (ideally) of Oct. 7 and 7:10 AM UTC, but likiely a few days either way from this, send in this:

"Did you know that October 7 is the "Night Out" date for Texas. Seems we will observe the national date which I think is next Tuesday and then Texas will have the second date of October 7. Sort of creeped me out……..."

Ha!  'Tis nothing at all in the way of creepy compared to what you'll be experiencing a year from now...but again, this is the predictive linguistics domain - so I will leave that for Cliff to reveal, but it's odd enough what's ahead that I'm creeped out too.  Just that Texans having a 'night out' isn't anywhere near the 'creep level' headed our way over the next 365...

 

 Going Solar

With the reports out that we only have 100-months to do something about global warming, I made a personal decision last week that I haven't mentioned here previously, but I suppose it's appropriate:  I'm putting in a decent-sized solar installation.

 

It's costing a fair big, too.  About $10,000 for a scalable install that can be added to over time and yes, it's a grid-tied system, so I can 'spin the meter backwards' on the local power company.

 

The 100-months story wasn't the main motivation.  The main one was wanting to be able to maintain our self sufficiency here at the ranch regardless of what happens this fall with the economy.  if, for example, there's an attack on Iran, and if things go horribly wrong, and oil shoots up to $500 a barrel, the power would likely go off.  When that happens, the fridge and the freeze are good for only a couple of days, not to mention local water supplies usually depend on some level of electricity to move things around.

 

The goal here is to do the right moves, well in advance of the crisis point.  Timed is ticking down to our October 7th date, and I will be doing an article (probably next week) for Peoplenomics subscribers on the ins and outs of putting in a system.  A lot of people have asked, so time to 'git 'er done' while we still have the wherewithal to act independently.

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section

 

Reader Reminder:  No Saturday report this weekend - Peoplenomics as usual for subscribers on Sunday...and see ya'll back here Monday morning at 'where's my coffee' time...

 

Peoplenomics.com 

Bug Out Bags and Plans

Without giving away the store, there's a chance - albeit a small one - that millions of people could be forced into relocation from their present homes/residences by events expected this fall.  Whether it's an attack on an American city, or a regional power outage which takes too long to recover from, or just economic callout resulting in a huge lack of jobs, thus sparking a 1930's style mass 'wandering', some thought might be given to how one would prepare for such an event.  But the 'single design' bug out bag isn't adequate for the range of possibilities over the next year or two, so let's get to work designing a better approach. We might begin with a fresh look at terrorism...

          More For Subscribers         Subscription Information

 

Not a Subscriber yet?  It's just $40/Year:  (Allow 48-hours for processing)

     (Other Payment. Options)

Tell Your Friends

UrbanSurvival has a very interesting business model - one that depends on growth.  This business model is a lot like capitalism in that growth is required, but of course we won't ever get to cutting down the rainforests. So even if you don't subscribe to our premium newsletter at www.peoplenomics.com, please tell everyone you know about this site.  The more this site grows, the more time and content will show up on the free site...  Click here to send 'em an invite...  Thank you!

 

"Live on $10,000" Updated

There's now a single-page website devoted to my little ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year (or less) at www.liveontenthousand.com.  Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

----

Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

 

---

Thursday July 31, 2008

Naked Summer Truth: Cats, Rats, Bats, & Shorts

The great 'balance of Universe' - that never-ending irony of headlines continues to amuse me and point out fresh opportunities to get our thinking straight.  Take for example the headline about how a 44-pound cat has been found wandering around New Jersey.  The Universe provides the other side of the story in the great cosmic cat & mouse game with a headline from the other coast: " Palisades Rathouse: Unchallenged by health officials, elderly twins fed local vermin population."

 

Meantime, in the central part of the country - Ohio - there are problems with bat populations.

 

The way I have it figured, as the socioeconomic and literal climates change, we're bound to have surges in populations of this, or that. It may not get much in the way of mainstream attention, but it's there if you go looking for it.  Headlines like "Weather changes bird species trends" out of the UK, "Group to fight for polar bear's threatened status" and a whole lot more.

 

Humans, being conditioned to be ADHD by an amazing array of artificial time pressures both at home and work, might be convinced that the UN deciding to drop suits and go casual is one answer to climate change.  But, I've come to an important conclusion this morning which is interesting as heck:  If humans were to try and fight global warming in a meaningful way, wouldn't we be setting the thermostats much higher and encouraging people to strip down to wearing shorts and T-shits, or taking it a step further, nothing at all to work?

---

When the fashion world starts marketing 'uncovered humans,  or nearly naked summer business attire, then I'll start believing something's being done about climate change.  Going from a suit to a golf shirt is a miniscule change.  It's still the 'right logo' trip.  But getting naked?  Now THAT would save energy, reduce costs of clothing, not to mention encouraging a whole lot of people to get down to a healthy weight.

 

Think the mainstream would touch this?  LOL...not unless there was some way that corpgov could sell 'naked licenses' or some other revenue generating scheme.  Some things are just obvious when you think about them for a second.  We're all so trapped by our mental constraints, we don't even see the fences that have been installed to keep the herd in line...

 

If it continues warm here at the ranch, and triple digit temperatures could be on the way, I'll likely start wearing just shorts.  Care to try that at your office?

 

Style, as I see it, is not a matter of exercising an 'economic choice' to get this logo on your golf flirt or that.  It's about freedom to wear anything from nothing to a full-up winter snow suit, depending on conditions and without spending any 'head time' worrying about 'What will other people think?'

 

As long as you're thinking like that, I mean about clothing and status, you're a victim of the matrix...and that's the naked truth, close as I can figure.

 

Rally Time!

Shell profits are a huge 11.6 billion for Q2.  Oil prices have backed off a bit. GM is cutting 15% of salaried workers.

 

The Employment Cost Index was out in the past few minutes from the Labor Department:

"Total compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent from March to June 2008, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today, the same as the increase from December 2007 to March 2008. Wages and salaries rose 0.7 percent and benefits rose 0.6 percent. In the previous quarter, wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefits increased 0.6 percent. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), a product of the National Compensation Survey, measures quarterly changes in compensation costs for civilian workers (nonfarm private industry and state and local government workers)."

OK, old cynical me looks at the data:  I go look at the data tables and guess what?  Civilian compensation was up 0.7% for the June ending period BUT STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT compensation was up 0.9%

 

This morning's economics lesson is really 'effing simple:  When the cost of government goes up faster than civilian compensation, taxes are going to go up at some point.  The People's Economist ought to get a Nobel Prize for this.  Like this isn't obvious when you think about it, huh?  But we're not supposed to...because it's all for our own what?

 

The Runs: More Window Dressing

Since both Barack Obama and John McCain have moved to such centrist positions that they are nearly indistinguishable, which is understandable because most of their funding comes from the same sources with the same interests, we must look further for meaningful metrics with which to discern how one might perform in office versus the other.  How about a comparison of how the two candidate's wives dress?  Yeah, there you go; that'd be a fine foundation upon which to base the future of the...Republic for which it stands... and all...

---

Meantime, it's almost endlessly amusing to read headlines like this gem: " McCain tries to define Obama as Out of Touch."  Hand that man a mirror...

 

Global Politics:  Israel Elections

A quick bout of politicking ahead there as prime minister Olmert has resigned.  Elections to follow shortly.

---

Looks like a cabinet shuffle is coming to Japan, too.

 

Zimbabwe and Other Weimars

In the latest installment of what has turned into an economic comic book, we see that Zibabwe's president Robert "keep your banks away from our resources" Mugabe has knocked 10-=zero's off the country's currency.

---

It's no more bizarre than our own you-know-who going into his office and privately bailing out the banksters who engaged in predatory lending in the housing market, but that's different....

---

Meantime, a housing CEO says it's no 'silver bullet' but it will help first-time buyers.  After reading some of the key provisions of the bill here, I can understand why he'd say that.  I still don't know if the requirement about reporting all financial transactions to the government which was in an early draft of the bill survived intact.  I expect, like the mis-named "Patriot Acts" there are sleeper provisions in the bill which were left in because people are so busy they don't read through everything, but time will tell, eh?  Too late...but it will come out...

 

Mexico Tainted Food Source

It may not be PC to say that Mexico was the source of the tomato scare, which morphed into the pepper scare, but here you go: "FDA finds salmonella strain at second Mexican farm."  I'm just sayin'

 

Another UFO Secret Out

Just as the Edgar Mitchell claims about UFO's visiting earth were beginning to die down, along comes another shocker: "Retired NASA SpaceCraft Operator witnessed Extraterrestrial in Space Shuttle Mission."

---

Seems the real shocker for the PTB come late next year, they'll find out about the intergalactic double-cross, but more on that for HPH subscribers in this week's web bot run.... But the MSM has no clue - and may not for another 9-months, so in the meantime, we get stories about how there's probably liquid sloshing around the surface of one of Saturn's moon. Big deal...

 

Quakin'

People in the Pacific Northwest are a little jumpy, realizing that there's been a good bit of earth movement/quaking in SoCal this week, and for the past several months up north in the Aleutians/ring of fire.  So, when a small quake comes along northwest of Seattle in the Port Townsend area, it makes local news...

 

And folks in California are worried too about The BIG One.

 

Build Up in Pakistan Tensions

This topic is bound to become a nearly daily event as we build toward late August issues there.  In this morning's episode, the "Pakistan spy agency accused by US" of giving a heads up to AQ as to what US plans were/are...  Also: 12 more civilians killed.

 

Iran: No Movement

Don't look surprised by this one. Meantime, fears are about that Iran may have an EMP attack on the US up its sleeve...

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Kids as  Retirement Planning Option

A good article on theCNN Money site about how kids and parents relate which it comes to retirement planning.  Are we planning to have our kids help with out retirement?  Not hardly.  In fact, we're planning on things being the other way - figuring that when the economic you-know-what hits the fan, we might have several coming to live with us...

 

Future China Relations

Something you might start thinking about now:  Is there something going on related to China that you should be thinking about/acting on in terms of stocking up on consumer items?

 

Here's my thought:  There are headlines about like this one:  "China, the Olympics, and the Visa Mystery".

 

Looking ahead, what I would surmise could happen would be something like this:  As soon as the Olympics are done, China will start to really get 'hard' about the Western exploitation of Chinese labor markets and will begin to raise prices and redirect a lot of its output toward increasing the standard of living in their own country.

 

As this happens, that will increase pressure on the US dollar, but more important, perhaps, it could also cause a dramatic rise in prices of 'all things Chinese' - which in the case of housewares and such, would be almost everything.

 

So as you read through stories that look into the future of Western relations with China, start turning over everything in your home and looking for the 'Made in China" words - it will show you in dramatic fashion how much of your lifestyle could be at future risk.

 

But check this out: A report by the Economic Policy Institute says "China trade costs jobs in every state" could be viewed optimistically: As globalism reaches the end of the ability of paper-hangers to print up more bundled liar's paper, we can get that many new jobs in America by just replacing lost Chinese production here, right?

 

Half In The Bag Department

The Seattle city council has approved a 'bag fee' and banned foam packing.  This is rich:  Under the guise of environmental protectionism they're really just trying to get a 20-cent a bag tax.  Say, where have I seen this kind of "we'll protect you - just pay us more tribute" kind of stuff before, huh?

 

December 12 Quake?

Here's a ponder:

"Greetings, George:

Coinciding with the HPH prediction of an earthquake in December is Jim Berglund's prediction for an earthquake on approximately Dec 12. Berglund is a maverick (aka ahead of the time) earthquake forecaster ( www.syzygyjob.com ) who was fired from his California State job for going public with his correct forecasting of the '87 California quake. He refused to be silenced, believing that his model for earthquake prediction was accurate. He has correctly predicted numerous earthquake windows including yesterday's. Typically at the time of any well-publicized earthquake such as yesterday, he is interviewed on Coast-to-Coast, as was the case last evening. Berglund last night predicted Dec. 12 for a quake."

--- snip and save section ---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

---

Wednesday July 30, 2008

California Prequel?

We'll get to the market's surreal rally in a moment, but first, let's get into some distractions.  We begin with a 'hats off to the time monks' - again.  Yes, Tuesday’s SoCal quake fulfills (perhaps 90th percentile) the language sets we were expecting to be associated with the ‘mid-summer quake that HPH has been predicting for 4-5 months. Please refer to my column for the week ending July 12 (Google cache of it here): --- emphasis added ---

"Looks like the failure of IndyMac Bank - the second largest US bank failure in history, fulfills the linguistic expectation of a major bankruptcy this summer. OK, the 'release period' July 3-8 was a disappointment - although the release of Ingrid Betancourt was noticeable. The 'big earthquake' didn't appear in the release period, but that's still on for the western US between now and September 21/fall equinox. But the 'big stuff' will likely come later in the year from October 7 (or thereabouts) on and in mid December with another quake around then. And a market collapse into 2009 - at least linguistically. --- "

Not a bad “hit” as things go, and curiously within hours of the McCain health-issues – a prequel to his possibly dropping out in September, or becoming 'unelectable' which seems to be what the model is saying. That, in turn, could lead to a ‘surprise’ attack/false flag in order to set a pretext for military action against Iran and to ‘spin’ the country up into a patriotic ‘outburst’ ala Iraq. Might even spin up four more years of the oil/war party pretenders.

---

The reason I refer to this as a prequel is that (write this down) there seems to be a large earthquake due December 10-12 of this year.  So, once we get past whatever the economic/military/terra entity calamity in HPH modelspace commencing October 7, that still leaves a huge set of 'bumps in the road' - but more on that ask details come into focus.  The time machine isn't perfect and requires huge amounts of work to even get a sketchy outline of things ahead.

---

While you're pondering the mid December quake, here's a new one that's reported crystallizing modelspace in conjunction with the 'space goat fart' entity, which is what Cliff and Igor humorously label the emerging pile of 'things that don't fit except they share an 'off-earth' orientation or component' and may be part of a 'contact meme'.  I'd call it 'the disappearance meme."  Could be some months off, but start thinking about the implications of this.

 

Most folks don't realize the number of everyday regular folks who just go 'missing' each year without explanation or clues.  To get a sense of it, click over here and read this transcript the spiders stumbled onto in the past week.  An alphabet agency losing one of its own without a trace and covered in a 1996 radio interview? Hmmm...  Though some months out, this is likely to go 'mainstream' and propagate as a widespread public discussion related to (or adjacent to) the contact/disclosure/SGF/things-from-not-here space.

 

What's curious about the reposting of the material in the past week is that the timing is coincident with a large 'outbreak' of contact related stories.  We had last week's former astronaut Edgar Mitchell - 'we are not alone - they've been here' report.

 

As skeptical as I am of the phenomena, it does seem like sightings are up.  Headlines like "Our garden was buzzed by a UFO" coming out of the UK aren't surprising - people spend more time outdoors in the summer.  But it's the headlines out of places like Russia "Tens of people witnessed UFO in Kaliningrad" and similar such events that get our attention. Or the Stephenville, Texas UFO this spring, or the one in the Bay Town area.

 

So while being entertained by videos like this one ( "NASA films UFO Later, Denies visual proof") there's this bothersome parallel re-emergence of 'disappearances'  which is precipitating in the model.  The time monks have been spending some time stewing on it, going to far as to wonder if what's in the stew might be  (you won't like this)...us?

 

The Hollywood hype has been curious, too:  Could the "warm & fuzzies" about UFO's (such as "ET phone home" kinda stuff) be some social engineering/conditioning going on just below the perception threshold that we should perhaps pay attention to? Again, more to stew on. 

 

If you thinks this is all a moot point, and far less important than markets, the old Twilight Zone story "To Serve Man" which may offer additional insights into what 's cooking. ( Video of the episode here...we bear no responsibility for you infringing any copyrights.)

---

Whew -  enough distractions, time to roll up sleeves and get 'nose down' on the money front.

 

Why Rally?

Rally on, dudes!  Good ADP jobs report.  The simple answer  behind yesterday's action is liikely that the government announced on Tuesday that the 'martial law' declared on shorting of financial stocks has been extended.  And that sent everyone into an ebullient, effusive mood and the hot money came in from the sidelines.

 

Still, there are a few big clouds out there.  S&P reported that home prices droipped by a record 15.8% in May.

 

While there are some people that think falling oil prices are a 'good' thing, the Wall Street Journal's looking at the decline as perhaps symptomatic of demand destruction.  In other words, when the economy crashes and people get laid off right and left, they won't be rolling as often or as far...

 

L.A.'s Confusion

No, it's not the aftermath of the Tuesday quake that's evidence of confusion.  It's the headline "L.A. blocks new fast-food outlets from poor areas."  I don't want to be the one breaking this to the city fathers (and mothers), but all of L.A. is turning into a poor area thanks to the Greenspan Housing Bubble bursting...

 

Forget Not Pill

Here's a headline for you: "Daily pill that halts Alzheimer's is hailed as 'biggest breakthrough against disease for 100 years'.  Now, what were we talking about?

 

Global CorpGov State

The headline "McDonalds to power Manila's police cars" is innocent enough on the surface - running cars on leftover fast food fry oil is fine and all.  But, down at some level, it feels like an institutionalizing of the link between corporations and government/control mechanisms that is just...uncomfortable to me.  Couldn't they have done delivery trucks, fire engines, or medic units, instead? 

 

Cratering Food Biz Jobs

Meantime, the economic downturn has been hitting the restaurant and lounge business hard.  Take, for example the shutdown of the corporate-owned Bennigan's chain in the Chicago area this week. Independently owned franchise locations will remain open.

---

If you're looking for a canary in the economic coal mine, this is one to keep an eye on.  Not only do people have less disposable income, and hence are less likely to go out for a meal on a lark, but with all the police departments running emphasis patrols, the bar portion of man y restaurants has become much less profitable.  If you missed the party days of the 1970's and 80's, you missed one hell of an era, never to return looks like.

---

Looking ahead, the unemployment rate is due out this Friday and John Crudele at the NY Post figures it will likely be an ugly report - and I couldn't agree more.  I'll put on my "people's economist" hat and throw a dart at 5.7% to 5.8%, although it really depends not so much on how many people are unemployed, as it will be swayed by the number of people in the workforce.

 

Pakistan Watch

Headlines like "Over 25 militants and five soldiers killed in Pakistan" may be the news of today, but we'll be watching the headlines from Pakistan much more closely come the 17th or thereabouts.

 

Game On

China is planning to censor foreign media access to the internet during the games.  While I'm intensely curious whether UrbanSurvival is on their list, the odds are it's not.  We don't provide enough coverage of the Falungong spiritual movement, most likely.

 

Oh, Oh - O2

Turns out that an oxygen tank exploded in the cargo hold of that Quantas jet that made an emergency descent last week in the far east.  Seems to me there have been a couple of other crashes in the past that have been blamed on O2 tanks...ah here we go - a 1983 Christmas Eve crash in China, for example...

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Quakes and Markets?

Here's one I hadn't thought about:

"Hi George,

Some interesting data:

Whittier-Narrows quake on Oct 1 in '87

Loma Prieta quake on Oct 17 '89

Northridge 'quake Jan '94

Cheers,"

Hmmm, but there are big earthquakes every year. On the other hand, there was that 1929 7.2 quake that killed people about a month after the '29 Crash - so the December quake coming up in linguistics is quite interesting, indeed. 

 

So here's a ponder which I don't know if anyone who's a serious geologist has ever looked at: Is there any kind of correlation between movement of financial markets and incidents of earthquakes?  I mean on a leading or lagging basis by a few months either side?   What I'd be looking for would be some evidence that some kind of geomagnetic/piezo effect impacts markets as a leading indicator and then, after a big market emotional release, if there isn't a quake, following by some number of weeks....

 

If you're a retired geophysicist, contributed papers/abstracts are welcomed!  You're welcome to put down Oct. 7 as the market drop start and Dec. 11th for the quake in your study, too; but as usual, we could be wrong.

 

Social Labels

I brought up the subject yesterday of people being 1099'ed because of losses of homes and 'forgiven' but 1099'ed credit card debt and speculated that such people might constitute a new class of 'tax fugitives.'  But wait!

"I think the proper term for people who hold no real assets and wander around looking for work would be "serfs". Granted they will be wandering around a larger geographic area than the serfs of the middle ages, but it's still one federal kingdom under the control of their multinational masters."

OK, how about 'terfs' - tax serfs?

 

Oh, Be Still....

A longish email this morning began (and I hate it when this happens) with a reader quoting me...

"As a farmer, I should be growing ethanol."

having read you for well over a year now george, Its clear... with your talent for all things mechanical seems to me you've got a head start on the game and if you're really interested in refining (no pun intended) it to homebrew i'd highly recommend david blume's new 600 page alcohol can be a gas.

call it an historical review, how to, and manifesto all rolled up into one. but i won't be surprised if it comes to be known as the bible of homebrew and maybe even the model for the coming SOC's to follow. note the name of the website is permaculture dot com. the permaculture mindset which is a pretty damn good model to be thinking about these days. the whole idea of micro-breweries is presented by blume as part of an integrated system. he's not only an expert on alcohol and a permaculturists, he's a biologist, an ecologist, and a farmer.

tons of stuff in the book to point you in the right direction. 30 years of R&D and field experience rolled into it. how to build the still and supporting goodies. fuel stocks from, and you're gonna love this... free or near free waste sources found locally that are trash to somebody else but can be used as fuel. got a bakery or donut factory or other food processors around the corner? what do they do with the stale stuff?

and co-products from the still? organic fertilizer for the garden, feed for the goats, fuel for your back-up generator, hot water for the shower, methane. maybe bottle and market essential oils if you get bad fruit to run from time to time. ever check the price of lemon oil? is there a local market for CO2? the possibilities are endlless.

he's talkin symbiotic systems here george where everthing has a use and ideas on how to put that to good use. partner with your neighbors and help each other out kinda thing. and everybody rides on cheap alcohol to boot. so what if the oil or the electricity stops flowin... you're makin your own. and and goodies to grow healty food in the process. scale it up a bit and you can have a little local coop venture going.

not only is the book an extensive, it is well domcumeted too. i count over 20 pages of index and over 20 pages of glossary from abe to zeolite. i don't know how many footnotes but there must be hundreds of them. their listed at the end of each chapter and there's 29 of them. over 500 figures and illistrations.

and get this... blume sez most every car on the road could burn a 50% alcohol mix right now with NO mods as long as its 180 proof or above. but if you want to do a conversion to full alcohol burn, and why wouldn't you, there's stuff on that too. homework needs to be done on any car older than 1983 for various reasons outlined in the book.

you gonna be drilling a well soon right? water is a factor and just how much is needed depends on what you're cookin and other factors. so you'd want to consider that when drillin that well.

i figure since you've been on c2c you might have a script. noory did a full show with blume week before last."

No, I haven't got a script - but if you have a membership to the C2C .mpg archives, it will be there for a while.  Made a note on the book, though. 

 

Already have the 'how to build a still book from Lindsay Technical Books.  Haven't gone about it yet, as I'd be much more interested in learning how to convert the crude oil being pumped out of the ground on the 600 acre oil south of our property into something useful - like diesel.  If you have plans for a small petroleum refinery that can be powered with wood or charcoal, can be fabbed out of 55-gallon drums and such, please send them along...

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch: So Much for Planning

You know my backup A/C unit I put in yesterday?  Hah!  Didn't cool the office worth a darn.  When it was 101 outside, the office temp was 91.  So....a trip to Lowes later I now have a 10,000 BTU monster chilling things. 

 

There's got to be a life lesson in there somewhere.  Maybe something like "You can't plan for everything...because the Universe always has one more lesson."  Point taken...

 

---

Tuesday July 29, 2008

10 Weeks Out

With just 10-weeks to what I've penciled on my calendar as the start of the five-months long Mother Of All Crashes (MOAC) beginning nominally at 7:10 AM on October 7th, there are plenty of stories the alert observer could pick out that go to the idea that something 'just ain't right' out there in economic land. 

 

For openers, there's a BBC story this morning about "America's house price time bomb" which is ticking away.  It gets to the relatively new phenomena of people 'walking away' from their mortgage obligations, as is happening right and left in depressed markets like California, Florida, and let's not forget Arizona or Nevada, either.

 

There was a time when such behavior wouldn't even be considered:  Today, however, it has become commonplace, and as the BBC story relates, it could be a $1-trillion dollar problem for US banks which themselves are only good for about $1.3 trillion.

 

It's not entirely simple, the 'walk-away' decision.  In some states, if a bank sells the home for less than the amount owed on the mortgage, the bank (or its assigns) can come after you for the difference.  Although not true to the same extent, in places like California and Florida, the bank is not the only problem.

 

Under the IRS code (see this morning's Coping section) there's a provision for any "forgiveness" of debt to be considered income - and thus be taxable.  In other words, if you owe a half million dollars and subsequently walk away from $400,000 of debt, the IRS may in some state consider that $100,000 loss - later 'forgiven' by a bank as uncollectable, as "income".

 

Their logic is inescapable:  Since so many people did the 100% LTV loans and bought new SUV's and such, the consider was able to treat any loan excess as spendable income, and they'd like their pound of flesh, if you please.  Depending on how the debt ijs handled by a bank (and this goes for credit card and other debts as well), the bank could 1099 millions of people and thus it has the potential to create a whole new class of what I'd call "tax fugitives".  The common elements of this class would be no discernable large assets, except perhaps a vehicle, generally no job, and floating from place-to-place, looking for work, a way to settle with IRS, and looking for a way to start over and 'get clean' with the system.

---

Unfortunately, the Housing Bill apparently has two major shortcomings.  The first, as may be expected in a 'campaign contribution oriented cashmocracy' is that the emphasis on the bill seems to be lenders, not borrowers.  Thus, the check-writing bankers may survive and prosper with the government bail-out, but there's the little matter of who's going to be paying for all this?

 

One analysis looks at the Housing Bill and asks "One Sept Closer to the United States of Zimbabwe?"

 

The second - and almost wholly unreported side of the Housing Bill is what else is in it?  We know that prior to going to the Hill, the bill had provisions that called for such freedom-squashing things as reporting all credit card transactions to the federal government, and while there are obvious anti-Constitutional implications there, the larger question is whether this isn't being used as a bankster's back door to do away with cash and bring on their ideal digidollar world.  In such a place, inflation wouldn't matter, as it would just involve adding another decimal point from time to time.

 

Meantime, in the sickest of housing markets the average asking price slipped another $4,000 just last week alone, reports one LA Time blog.

---

The strategic questions for both of us remain sane people in this progressive less sane world, is to discern how the work-out of the struggle between deflation (championed by crashing home prices) will work out relative to government spending gone wild (championed by the WOT/wars and record deficit spending).

 

The outgoing administration is having to come head-to-head with economic reality - and despite any of the once honest conservative claims of Republicans, the group of pretenders that has co-opted everything of principal with the neocon and Oil Party agenda is leaving office (we hope) with a record $482 billion deficit forecast for FY 2009.

 

Not that it will end there, of course.  There's no question that whoever gets to the White House next will have a long list of 'free lunches' to hand out, be sitting in the early hours of a Second Depression, and thus in Roosevelt-fashion, may be expected to roll out trillions in government make-work functions.

---

Not that this will be all bad.  Far from it.  In keeping with my "wage something productive" philosophy, there's plenty of work to be done, including a transition to alternative energy, on-shoring of America jobs, rebuilding of the Internet to something which will remain free of corpgov dominance, although Web 2.0 ain't it.  There's infrastructure that needs repair and/or replacement all over the place, but the underlying question becomes "How do we pay for it?"

 

Thus, the question of how to get your personal collected savings from this side of the MOAC to the other - and beyond what the linguistics call for the summer from hell in 2009 becomes problematic.

 

My personal inclination is to follow the Las Vegas practice of 'doubling down'.  Put some portion of life savings into as close to a deflation-proof investment as possible, such as US Treasury Bonds - and in particular the inflation-indexed treasuries, while putting some other portion into gold, silver, and other 'hard' assets.  "Gold higher on risk aversion, but resistance caps gains" says one headline.

 

One silver producer reports a big increase in production (+37% over Q1), but have you tried to find any silver locally of late?  Anecdotal reports are that it's hard to find, at least anywhere near 'offishul' spot prices.  Premiums of a couple of dollars an ounce have been mentioned.

 

I'm watching gold rather closely now, because my personal read is that if gold doesn't get back over $1,000 pretty quick, it could be headed much lower, perhaps into the $700 or even $600 range before resuming its ascent as government spending is ramped up even further, once the side of the economic crisis becomes apparent to those stuck in now.  Those of us who live 10-minutes to 10-years in the future will already have climbed aboard for the next wave.

---

Another thing to watch, although it's akin to watching how the eyes of newt are doing in a witches brew (and about as appetizing) is how the Big Banks are trying to find 'greater fools' to unload their collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) on.  Headlines like "Merrill to sell $8.5 billion of stock, unload CDO's" have me wondering how much CDO debt the Fed might take as security as their "Step right up, free money!" window.

 

Headlines like "Fitch downgrades 6 classes of Jupiter high-grade CDO II, Ltd." don't make a lot of sense unless you first understand that not only mortgages were bundled up and sold off in tranches that were expected to perform like bonds, but further, just about any other kind of debt was bundled up and sold, too.

 

"But wait, George, how come the headline says "high-grade" in the same sentence with CDO?"

 

A testament to Wall Street's need to visit either ophthalmologists or sign up for religious deprogramming, such afflictions being common among the disciples of the Almighty Dollar and Mammon.

---

Because certain classes of CDO's are now (perhaps rightly) being labeled 'toxic waste' on the Street, the beginnings of the Great Snowball which will result in huge job layoffs as the year progresses begins to come into view.

 

While the predictive linguistic work of Half Past Human may be beyond your financial means, or just too deep to dig into and follow, there are smoke signals visible all over the place that should be setting off alarm bells.

 

Let me share just two Big Ones with you this morning.  First is the ripple from the collapsing toxic CDO market.  Without a way to bundle up and then unload things like car leases, the push-back on Detroit (and Tokyo) will be obvious: fewer units will be moved.  Notice, I didn't say sold.  That's because leasing is falling apart right now.  "No more leases from Chrysler Financial" reports WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids.

 

If you happen to live in New York, another 'slap upside the head' will come tonight as Governor Paterson delivers a financial address about the economic ills of the Empire State.

 

I've always considered public employees to be almost like an economic flywheel of sorts.  When times are really good, the public employees slow the pace of expansion and act as a bit of a drag on the economy.  However, when times get bad, the spending by public employees tends to keep things going - storing up energy on the way up and releasing spending on the way down.  A dirt simple concept, but one that's not put in such simple terms in econ classes as a whole.

 

These things aren't making big headlines yet, but I expect they will be a precursor to headlines to follow over the next year or three as the fallout from the MOAC comes along in sucessive waves this fall and into next year.

 

If Arnold the Governator thinks he has problems now ("Schwarzenegger seeks to slash state workers' pay till budget passes" ), just wait until he has to actually start laying off folks sooner than later as the impact of California's declining tax base work through the state's revenue systems.

 

And, just to take things around full-circle, there are the scores of headlines to come about how investments in toxic waste/questionable debt instruments will dilute retirement plans.  "How Wall Street Wrecked your Retirement" by Nicholas von Hoffman in The Nation might be worth a read if you're still up for it.

 

The Leadership Gap

If you've been waiting for the democorps to get off their you-know-whats and wage something useful, keep waiting.  Despite what's turning into a long string of broken promises on everything from the environment, to war spending/ending, and need I go on?...I couldn't help but notice the headline "Pelosi 'I'm trying to save the planet'".  Sincerity or megalomania?  I'm now sure, but I have my suspicions.  Don't see any improvement in the war yet, however.

 

Secret Societies File: EPA

Is this EPA's idea of a gag?  Apparently so...

 

Click To Travel

Starting this Friday some travelers to America will have to click the Internet first.  Now, how soon before we're all clicking to go anywhere?  Seems only a matter of time.  Forget the old "Achtung! Papier Bitte?" pronounced with a thick Germanic accent.  It'll be replaced with a TSA worker barking "Have you clicked?"  Splendid - and click those boots smartly.

 

What about the Surge?

"Bombers and ethnic clashes kill 61 in Iraq."

---

A senior al Qaida figure has reportedly been killed in Pakistan.  Kind of expecting three weeks or so till a major blow-up/insurrection there...hope to be wrong, of course.

 

That death didn't seem to stop militants from abducting 30 police.  August 17th is where the THTF for Pakistan in modelspace back when, but these things drift about.

 

Price Pressure

Shell issues a warning because of Nigeria troubles.

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: 10-Weeks Out, Redux

The Runs: McCain's Dims

I have deliberately not said anything about John McCain's health despite it cropping up in HPH's modelspace as being an issue in September, simply because it didn't seem to have any basis in fact, at least in the MSM.  Yet, I suppose it's time to roll out the whole scenario now that McCain has had a small patch of skin removed from his face.

 

One way to read the linguistics is (put your coffee down for this part) that McCain's health becomes an issue and some other republicorp comes to the fore who is adjudged unelectable in the popular press by around October 1st, and then we get whatever the nominal trigger will be for the MOAC.  One interpretation might be that with GOP (grand oil party) chances waning, the neocons will just get on with the bombing of Iran and the resulting oil embargo and isolation of the US in particular as punishment for going ballistic (sic) blows back on us.

 

Which is why in yesterday's report I mentioned the story out of the JPost that the US was only talking with Iran to legitimize a strike later.  If McCain becomes unelectable for any reason, you will want to cancel that rug-shopping jaunt to Isfahan before, say, October 7th....just in case. 

 

Remember the philosophy around here is to use the predictive linguistic reports to reduce personal risks. Yes, Elaine and I blew out of L.A. October 2, 2005 to return to the ranch because around October 5th we had linguistics pointing to a major/serious earthquake in the 'Southwest' with a latitude about 34 degrees north.  Because we were living in Burbank (34.17 north) at the time, the 'reduce personal risk'  decision was simple: Get out of the Southwest.

 

Of course, you know what happened next.  In the Southwest, within days, and at 34 degrees 29 minutes north there was indeed a devastating earthquake.  It's just this was the Pakistan quake in Southwest Asia.  OK, we were off by half a globe, but the experience did serve to both reinforce our confidence in the linguistics, especially on the big ones and to make us quite serious about bracing for whatever is coming in October.

 

I had a chat yesterday at some length with chief time monk Cliff about what October will be like.  If you remember that horrible sense of loss that followed 9/11 for six days?  Try to wrap your head about 5-months of that kind of feeling what things implode.  That's the magnitude of what Cliff is reading in modelspace.  So, please forgive me if I seem to get a bit carried away by the urgency of this being a mere 10-weeks out from today.

 

Although the MOAC trigger is likely to be caused by a financial break of some kind, perhaps like the Bank Herstaat case which nearly caused a global collapse of the economy in 1974, there are some other 'candidates' for the trigger. 

 

One would be a massive terrorist attack on America using weapons of mass destruction.  However, as I explained yesterday, if this were to occur, I'd rate the odds of it being a false flag/put up operation very high, as any attack on America might cause a sudden swing to militarism and response, just as the 9/11 event was spun into a couple of wars.

 

Cliff's view is that after financial disaster, a third choice is his second bet - a major earthquake.  We've still got a huge regional power outage to deal with, and although a large US quake seems to be in the cards before September 21, if we don't get that, then a major quake could also do enough damage and might have enough 'carry values'.

 

The reason Cliff's not as worried about a terrorist attack/FFO as me has to do with the emotional carry values.  And, he's got a point.  The size of a terrorist attack in order to cause the 5-months of release values, would have to be much larger than a Hiroshima sized device, even with fallout and so on making news day after day. 

 

More likely, in the event of a megaquake - something on the order of a 9.0 or larger, we could get month after month of bodies being discovered, fallout from broken infrastructure, and so forth, not to mention the isolation of a whole region, which seems to arise.

 

All this is highly speculative, of course.  I'm still betting on a collapse of the financial system of such magnitude that ATM machines will be shut down by banks to prevent runs at that level, and it's why I have opened the Treasury Direct account - because my faith in free standing financial institutions is not all that great to begin with.

 

Not that I am alone: If you surf around the 'net with any degree of seriousness, you will no doubt find people who are encouraging folks to demand stock certificates be issued to them because they don't trust electronic 'money repositories' to hold their wealth.  And, who knows?  Maybe that's not a bad idea.

 

All of which takes us around full circle again, back to the issue of John McCain's health in August and September, and his 'electability'.  If that drops precipitously, then option #2 might move up a bit. 

 

But it all matters little.  All of the outcomes are horrific enough that it's just a sick monkey mind that tries to handicap what Universe has in store under the delusion of being able to have any influence over our personal outcomes, which may be largely predestined despite the illusion of 'free choice'.  Cliff may have found a way to pierce the veil of time, but only to the extent we can see something is coming at us, but without the detail as to whether it's a train, terrorists, or a tsunami.

 

Maybe Universe runs things like elections in Florida? You just THINK you have a choice...or maybe Universe is still shaking the dice deciding which one and we can just hear 'them bones'. (Linguistic Note:  Definition #7, which should give you some insight why predictive linguistics books aren't for sale on Amazon.)

 

Or, as Cliff is fond of saying: "...We could be wrong..."\

 

Street Signs

Several responses to the wire barrier remarks by our Oklahoma correspondent earlier this week:

For your correspondent in Cheyenne per note #4: The rope wires strung between the lanes of the interstate are there to prevent head-on collisions at highway speeds (apparently not just in the US either  (see link which will be especially interesting to our NZ readers). Crashing at 70mph is much easier to live through than the equivalent of 140mph (2-vehicle 70mph head on collision). We’ve had it in Missouri for quite some time and apparently it’s useful (or at least used) as it seems about every week I commute down the interstate there’s another section that needs to be repaired!

Another reader offers this:

"Now I have a more than fair amount of paranoia of the PTB but when people stop using common friggin sense, that borders on a problem and, maybe they ought to take a break from reading sites which pander to it, go outside and take a quick look at the world in front of them. As a Paramedic and Firefighter for 30 years, I personally can attest to seeing at least several hundred or more head on collisions (almost always a fatal involved) on a major Interstate Highways such as I40. I talked to my buddy at CalTrans (California Transportation Agency) today about why they wouldn't put emergency turnarounds every few miles and his response was that it cost about $10,000 a spot to do so (with cables, concrete is cheaper, given the support buttresses and such) when the whole line only cost about $30,000 per mile. It is more cost effective to put a turnaround every five or six miles and gain two miles of fence for the limited money they have in the budget. Two other issues he brought up are that turnarounds encourage lazy drivers to use them (they don't want to trouble themselves with an offramp) thereby causing accidents and that these turnarounds seem to allow the occasional driver to slip through, allowing a head on. I can attest to these issues just this year which have occurred three times in my response area, all fatals of at least one. Diligence and awareness are welcomed facets but folks need to temper this with the bottom up pyramid thinking mode when coming to a deduction. That which cannot be explained simply must be something else but at least look for the simplest explanation. You're welcome to snip this as you see fit."

Done!

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch: Planning for the Worst

10-years of living on my sailboat taught me one thing: Redundancy, redundancy.  (Or is that two things.,,,hmmm?)

 

So this morning when I walked into my office and found the 'dollar ninety-eight air conditioner had stopped working, the answer was simple:  As soon as I get done with this morning's report, I will set up the backup a/c unit.

 

And my point is?  Everything is bound to fail sometime.  Currencies, governments, airplanes, chainsaws, you name it.  Getting through life comfortably is above most other factors, a matter of having backup systems and plans in place for everything you can think of.  The new AC unit was purchased 6-months ago knowing the now 5-year old unit was getting a bit long in the tooth.  Call it a hunch. Gut feeling.  Today it paid off.

 

Life is not necessarily about winning and losing.  I like to approach it more from a 'not losing' standpoint.  As Universe will agree in a few minutes here "That it's cool..."

 

---

Monday July 27, 2008

Oil Rush'n

The Russians are changing some of their laws around to give two state-owned oil giants more control over development in the Russian Arctic.

 

Although the price of oil has fallen in the past few weeks from its record high approaching $150, nothing would surprise us less than to see prices make another run toward the $150 mark.  There are reports rebels in Nigeria are planning to attack key oil pipelines.

 

Meantime, we're starting up a new round of the national pastime called "Second Guessing."  The NY Times refers to "Gas Price Follies"  and the "Republicans’ misguided push for offshore drilling and Democrats’ misbegotten plan to curb speculation in oil futures."

 

The same set of facts leads the Washington Post to speculate that "Oil May Become the GOP's 2008 Issue."  Which is too bad, really.  We've got others like 'the wars" and the lack of a fence on the southern border.  But, oil is really the least of it.

 

The bigger questions will be about the pending war with Iraq and larger Middle East wars to come, not to mention the housing bubble collapse.

 

If I was making a guess, I would expect that oil prices will get off their seven-week lows and start to head higher this week.  No matter how I slice it, there's a titanic battle underway between the forces of inflation and deflation and oil seems pivotal.

 

Unhappy Conclusion

I've come to an unhappy conclusion about October.  This is mine alone, and speculative at best, but it goes to the idea that we might be facing another 'terror' attack this fall.

 

Let's consider the interests of the parties to this potential conflict.  I ask myself "Would there be any reason for Iran to in any way back a 'terrorist' attack on the US prior to the election?  As I think about it:  An attack on the US that had mass casualties would likely be used to 'spin' the country into an attack on Iran (as 19 Saudi nationals were used to spin up an Iraq war).  Such a conflict would cost Iran their nuclear program and possibly turn part of Isfahan into glass. They can't be that dumb as to not see it.  

 

In other words, there's no scenario I can think of where extremists attacking the US prior to the elections would do anything but sweep in a republicorp/neocon agenda of attack and maybe even give an excuse to postpone elections.  I don't think the Iranian government is that dumb. Nor do I think terrorists are that dumb.

 

On the other hand, a very convincing argument could be be made that the corpgov would have every reason to have a (hidden) hand in a false flag attack.  It's clear when you think things over from a republicorp/PTB perspective:  Obama just returned from a triumphant overseas tour with a 9-point lead in the polls. John McCain's prospects are dimming correspondingly.  What's the 'October surprise" that could sweep a hard-liner into office?  Why, an attack, of course.

 

So obvious is all this that the Jerusalem Post headlines today "Officials: US talks to Iran to legitimize attack."  But no matter how dearly the neocons want to level Iran's nuclear projects, they still need a 'rally-round' and a 'shock and awe' event to really spin things.  That 'trigger' event is missing - so far.

---

I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories.  That said,  I do collect data and see what fits.  Recall that the 9/11 attacks occurred just as the financial markets were on the verge of recognizing that the US was entering into a Second (or Greater) Depression after the trillions of dollars of investment 'blew up'  as the internet stock bubble burst from 2000 to early 2002.  That was obfuscated and spun on a dime with the events of 9/11.  Government spending was off and running with the WOT and an endlessly scalable war.

 

Now, fast forward to today.

 

We find ourselves once again on the brink of widespread public recognition of the trouble the paper-bloated financial system is in.  The 'grays' of the Baby Boom generation are looking for safety for their assets, not gains at this point.  You did notice that two more national banks quietly failed last week, or was that glossed over a bit too much for you catch in the MSM?

---

I wouldn't call this conspiratorial.  I think of it as 'science'.  We take the observed data  such as the past collapsing markets and past coincident 'terror' event which launches massive government spending on a couple of very costly wars which keep the economy afloat and unemployment figures down. 

 

Today, with the public verging on widespread recognition of the financial and moral bankruptcy of the country (and the diminution of our Constitution) we would at least be open to the possibility that another (false flag) attack could be rolled out to 'spin' the electorate this way or that, or failing success there, it would give the PowersThatBe a fine opportunity to usurp even more power, extract even more tribute, take away even more Constitutional rights, and maybe another big push toward One World Government which wI strongly suspect is the agenda, anyway..

 

Taxing away the lifetime savings of the electorate, 'staging' events just so, it's arguably been done before, so why not again? 

 

Far from being able to stop it, we'll just keep an eye it from as far away from the core as possible while remaining in the country, holding to the ideals of the Framers,; and trying to look at things from a rational viewpoint.  Then make plans accordingly.

---

Looking ahead at the week's economic 'events', we get Consumer Confidence tomorrow.  The combination of beer-drinking weather, rebate checks, and the prospect of a 'change' in the elections might be expected to buoy confidence a bit, if for no other reason than most folks don't know the candidates of both parties usually receive checks from the same people/institutions. 

 

Not to rant too much: The range of 'choice' is really limited to what the fat-cats will write a check for.  You're supposed to ignore the reality of 'bought-and-paid-for" and believe the standard mythos of spontaneously elected 'best possible leadership' rather than the "buying access" and a whole lot more.  As a farmer, I should be growing ethanol.  The MSM has a hand in this cookie jar too,  by excluding coverage of third party candidates in support of the network-friendly bi-stable checking-writing PTB.  Ah, cashmocracy at work.

---

Thursday will see GDP and then Friday we should see the unemployment rate numbers.  These, I would expect will be around 5.6 to 5.7%.

 

I'm expecting a flat week in the market, perhaps closing down some. 

 

The biggest question continues to be the one that doesn't deal directly with how this market or that will fare this week.  Instead its a much larger question and context:  "Given what could be coming this fall, what's the smartest way for the average working American like me) to get as much of my acquired (stuff) from one side of the coming crisis to the other?"   Getting that one right is likely one of the largest decisions of a lifetime.

---

If I were really cynical, I'd say notice that the current "Advertising slowdown weighs on media groups"? Nothing like a horrific event to drive cumes, quarter-hours and Times Spent Watching or Time Spent Listening, eh? And it would sell a lot of papers...

 

"He Who Laughs Last..."

Here's a headline for you: "Massive Economic Disaster Seems Possible -- Will Survivalists Get the Last Laugh?"

 

Where There's Smoke

Homes are being destroyed by a fire near Yosemite.  A Pierce County (Washington, south of Seattle) fire chief is missing and feared dead in the California wildfires.  Meantime, a falling tree killed an 18-year old fire fighter on the lines near Redding.

--

The Greek island of Rhodes has been devastated by a forest fire.

 

Blowback

After outing that "Aliens Exist" last week, headlines about Apollo Astronaut Edgar Mitchell like "Out of Space or Out of Mind" from MSM are not quite surprising...

 

Climate Change?

Snow in Sidney this weekend for the first time since 1836...

 

---

snip and save section

---

Coping:  Woolworth's Menu

I sent a few friends an email I received last week that featured prices from the F W Woolworth department store lunch counter from years back.  Some great looking sandwiches on the menu - and for just 50-cents.  (That's money, not rapper).

 

So one of these friends sent in this analysis of it - which was really quite good:

"On the face of it, the prices look great. But let's recall: That fifty cent sandwich was paid for with two quarters. Those two quarters were made of 90% coin silver. At today's price of silver, that's about $6.30 melt value. I imagine one could get a decent BLT sandwich for $6.30 even today. And I do remember my first real job working the dish line in the school cafeteria in 1968 paid $1.00 an hour, and a free school lunch. I seem to recall that the US minimum wage went to $6.55 an hour - as of yesterday. So whaddaya think - an hour's work for lunch at minimum wage, more or less? Throw in a king sized Coke and an apple pie along with that BLT, and you are looking at a $9.45 melt value in today's silver prices - ten bucks, more or less, or about an hour and a half's work at minimum wage - maybe two hours taking taxes into account. Viewed in the light of real money, versus paper FRNs, I'd say the prices were not exactly cheap, but not exorbitant, either. I can go down to McDonalds and get two double cheeseburgers for $2.00 and tax, which is what, a third of the cost of that BLT more or less? Perspective. All about perspective.

On the other hand, it WAS a great time to be a kid! "Be home when the streetlights come on." No police interrogation for having a pocketknife at school. BB guns. Heck, .22s! Ah, well, another era. "The old order changeth, giving way to the new."

Something to chew on, eh?  (Couldn't resist, sorry...)

 

Marching Music

With the Olympics fast approaching...

"The nephew (Swedish composer Robert Wells) of a friend of mine is composing the music for opening ceremonies of the Olympics next week. I got a video clip of the rehearsal. Apparently the American athletes are marching in to boogie-woogie, and the Chinese are coming in to "Great Balls of Fire."

I just pass on the information, I don't analyze the meme. But I think there is a message there somewhere."

It will take some pondering to figure it out... 

 

Crushed?

Speaking of China, you might want to watch orange juice futures as "A Chinese pathogen has the citrus industry talking apocalypse".

 

Yes, and speaking of food and stocking up, watch paper prices start to rise now as the fires out west take supply off line...just a guess, but don't be surprised.

 

Street Level Economics: Oklahoma Insights -

Our correspondent up in Cheyenne sends this:

"Notes on observations and conversations: 1. at OK City gun show Saturday.....people talking of wanting to find and buy weapons "off the books". Why?....they said they do not trust Obama and think he will attempt to close down gun sales....

2. at OK City gun show the military surplus dealers had signs out on the tables saying "get the surplus now, because the US government has closed down all sales of military surplus materials"...there will be no more....

3. Ammo prices up

4. On I-40 at several places construction is continuing..... they are installing what appear to be steel stakes in a row down the middle of the grass strip separating the east and west sections; the stakes placed about 10 feet apart. ....the stakes are estimated to be 24 inches tall out of the ground. I observed one section with 4 cables threaded through it for more than a mile.... the cable appears to be large size, perhaps 1/2 inch diameter..... several large sections of the interstate ...some miles are being segregated....south half....and north half. My observation is this.....if an emergency vehicle, ambulance, fire truck or wrecker has to proceed west bound to get at an rescue or accident scene on the east bound lands.....they will not be physically able to cross the barrier with a vehicle.... walk across and step over the fence yes...... but vehicles no...... This looks like very suspicious to me....why spend all this money to isolate each side? What is the reasoning?

some kind of barrier to a potential mass movement or migration of people in vehicles expected?

5. gasoline in OK City was $3.439 today.."

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

----

Around the Ranch:  Clocks Ticking

Despite taking off from writing my usual Saturday morning piece, the weekend was still too short to even make a dent in the pile of projects.  A couple of things result:  First:  For a while (probably until we get to October 7th) I won't be doing the free Saturday reports.  Instead, some of that time will be reallocated to writing more (and doing more research) for the Peoplenomics.com (subscription) reports.  The rest will be spent on the tasks that need doing around the ranch, including a couple of well-drilling projects, an extension onto the house, rebuilding the master bath, and remodeling what's now a storage room into a guest room.  The client load has also been unusually heavy - which is both a good thing and a bad.

 

When we moved to East Texas in early 2003, I had this notion that we'd settle back, read books, be content with a very low but manageable income, and have plenty of time to read.  Ha!  Instead, I'm on the same kind of clock that that I had walked away from.  The main difference is that instead of getting cut off on the 205 or the 405 by wild-eyed drivers, I now get to step in goat crap.  Not complaining, mind you; it's a good trade and one I'd make again in a New York second.

 

Today, I will get caught up on Peoplenomics subscriptions, polish off one client project (maybe...) and enjoy the heat.  We had over 100 yesterday, and both of the digital thermometers in the office claimed it was 103.3 for a while.  But, it wasn't as bad as some 95 degrees days because as a friend put it "It's more like Midland heat..." - a reference to the 15% humidity out west which is a stark contrast to the 90-90 (temp and humidity) other places farther east suffer from at this time of year.

 

In late April, you may remember my questioning whether investing in a new 5-ton central a/c system was a good idea.  Well, I'm here to tell you that it has probably paid for itself already: The system still cycles off a couple of times per hour, even when keeping the inside of the house at 77/78 and it's a blistering 103 outside. 

 

Won't bore you with ranch trivia, but it just reminds me that everyone is a farmer in some regards whether they're conscious of it or not:  The ideas and actions of today are usually harvested some time down the road.  The harvest is bountiful for us lately, it turns out.  Except for the clocks which keep on ticking....  This week's Peoplenomics report (and conclusions on 'bug out plans') outlines yet one more thing to be accomplished before October gets here --- and is it me, or is the clock ticking faster?

 

Oh...One More Important Thing...

If you have a high speed connection, just to get things off to a proper start this week, click here and hit play....

 

Now go wage something useful.