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Published Monday through Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays

 

Can't Sleep Sunday Thoughts

From today, we've got 37 days, if the predictive linguistics are right, to the next point in this timeline when life will go through a major shift - just as the major tipping point in early September of 2001 has had a lasting (and arguably negative) impact on the lives of most of the planet.  So, up early this morning working on checklists and how to deal with life thereafter for Peoplenomics.com subscribers.

 

Along the way though, some serious events that are worth of note as they fit in so closely with the concept of 'urban survival.'

 

One of these is the report out of the UK today that Lehman Brothers is in urgent talks to try and drum up a capital injection.

 

In case you missed it, after the close on Friday, Integrity Bank failed down Alpharetta Georgia way.  This is a fair-sized bank - about a billion in assets.  This is expected to eat through another $250-million to $350-million of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s dough, which in turn came from where?  You guessed it: nice upstanding report-every-dime taxpayers like you and me.  It's getting so anyone with an ounce of economic wit, ought to be afraid as hell of Fridays after the close.

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I've explained for subscribers, but it bears repeating: The danger in all these bank failures is not just the potential for depositors to lose their shirts and savings.  If that were the case, the Feds would likely be upset, but not nearly as worried about 'systemic integrity'.

 

The real problem that crops up is the whole notion of cascading bank failures.'  The way this scenario paints out is very simple.  Picture all the banks in the world as being players sitting in a gigantic circle, each bank having a pile of receivables from their bank on the right and owing a bunch of payables to the bank of their left.

 

These inter-bank obligation instruments, have tow kinds of values.  One in a 'notional value' and the other is an 'actual value'.  They are derivatives and other piles of paper debt that have previously been taken at face value.  But, all that is now changing.

 

The problem THE WHOLE WORLD has is that if the orderly transfer of dough from the players to the right - to the player in the middle - to the player on the left (in a manner of speaking) seizes up, there will be NO MORE FINANCIAL WORLD as we know it today.  Pure and simple.

 

All it takes is just one bank to renounce its 'turn' and suddenly the whole global economic system can lock up.  In other words, there is no way for the floating craps game that is  the global derivatives and debt market to act in an adaptive manner because the underlying instruments are so horribly complex.  You might have a pile of this kind of pseudo-bond (let's say a collection of mortgages) that was paying 'x' interest, and you decide to swap ownership of thatr for something that will pay you a spread and that in turn is based on some other piece of paper or variable rate on some exchange somewhere.

 

You should be getting the picture that everything is stitched together in a manner that makes it impossible to move positions about.  You can just 'move' the whole world financial system around to accommodate the needs of a few players because underlying the global financial systems is a global pile of 'lawyer-drafted contracts' which would make your head spin.  There is no way all that 'paper asset' and 'paper debt' legal work to be rewritten every couple of weeks (and becoming more regular lately, and becoming the norm this fall) fast enough to keep global economic collapse at bay.

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The world came close to a financial meltdown in 1974.  You need to devote a few minutes to read a couple of short Wikipedia entries here:  One is about the failure of Herstatt Bank in Germany in 1974 which brought the world to the abyss.  The second is about 'settlement risk' which is the source of the lockup problem.

 

To summarize, how would you feel if I said to you "Oh, I'm guessing 45-75 days until we hit one of these 'settlement risk' problems?  That'd be where Bank A fails to pay Bank B, so B, owing money to Bank C doesn't have the dough to pay up, and so the whole failure propagates. Not just to the mahogany foxholes at the next bank - I mean globally, such that banks won't have money to load up ATM's and things like that. Sucks to be a banker lately.

 

I first learned about this notion back in the mid 1970's when the late Dr. Paul Erdman explained the problem over a two martin8i lunch at the old Trader Vic's in Seattle.  The Herstatt Effect, as the German failure because known in banking circles, was one of the underlying research points in his book "The Crash '79".  However, any of his other financial novels, "The Billion Dollar Sure Thing", and "The Silver Bears" are all equally entertaining, but more important, they will help you soak up some serious financial understanding that you won't find today even in many grad schools.

 

The Herstatt Effect is the ugly duckling, or should I say Taleb's Black Swan, that underlies things like the Lehman gone fishing for capital story. If you are just sitting around this weekend doing nothing, I'd suggest that if you've got even a half ounce of awareness going you'd find some way to change things around in your life so when whatever's coming gets here, you'll be ready for it...

 

Gustav Evacuations

The presently (as I write at 6:05 AM Central) Cat 4 Hurricane Gustav is headed for the Gulf Coast. 

 

There will be some local ham radio club meetings today as ham radio ops get ready to provide a backup communications systems for relocation workers in much of East Texas where no doubt some of the evacuees will land. 

 

The way it will work here is that any arriving evacuees in the Palestine/Anderson County area will be directed to the local Civic Center where they will be assigned to a dozen or so local churches.  Everyone will have to register and be assigned, which while it may sound like a pain (and might be) it will give accurate reporting for disaster response workers and a central clearinghouse of information.

 

We're expecting about a thousand people to show up here and maybe 6,000 (or more) up in Tyler Texas.

 

The National Weather Service has a "Gustav" page here, which I'd suggest that you link to for news and official information.

 

At its closest point of approach the track will put the storm k40 miles northeast of the ranch, so I'll be working today to get my backup power system charged up and get the generator reader, including a new battery and what have you.

 

How Mad Is Russia?

If you remember the Friday "Hot Back Story" on Georgia, the story may be getting legs as there's a report - and a disturbing one indeed - that "Russian 'Sleeper' Agents Begin 'Day X' Attacks in U.S."

 

Some history of the 'Day X' plans can be found here. 

 

We should get a prequel of what's coming on October 7th or thereabout - sure as hell hope it's not the 'Day X' kind of thing.  A simple global meltdown of the economy would be bad enough, but as I've written before, a war to hide financial crimes/excesses may have been behind 9/11 so no telling what this is going to be.  40% military, 50% economic and 20% Terra entity in modelspace - and we expect first look at the current predictive linguistics run just past mid-week.

 

 

 

Been Rudely Awakened?

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How Hillary Could Win plus George's School of Crooked Finance

While at first blush, you might think we're covering one topic in this week's report, there are actually two:  The first being a sequence of events that might lead to Hillary getting the nod (or at least the Presidency) and separately, how crooked finance may be blowing up in slow motion while most of the world stands by in disbelief.  Grab a fresh cup, this is going to be fun.  Except for the part about the  latest "after the close Friday"/ "bank Failure of the Week" but more on that after we see how Ms Clinton could get herself back into the White House....

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Review of this week's report:

"Greetings from France George where I am summering and returning Oct 2nd (hopefully in time). Sundays #363 was not one of your best...it was by far your very best. Scary but c`est la vie. My suggestion to you would be at a latter date (next month) to share all or part of it with your regular readers. Its that good and important. Best regards....(name withheld) "

Nice report card, eh?  No, I am not related to this person...  Gosh, what do you think I am, a stock analyst or something?

     (Other Payment. Options)

"Live on $10,000" Updated

What?  You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- olr less"?  Suit yourself.  We're all going to live it shortly, anyway.  I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped.  But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com.  Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

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Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

 

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August 29, 2008

Georgia - One Hot "Back Story'

the threat of War over the events in Georgia continues to build.  Russia according to the Voice of America site (which is very pro Western business model) is headlining "Russia: G7 Condemnation over Georgia Shows 'Bias'".  Gee, yah think?

 

Meantime, one of our 'well-placed sources' sent along this report today which we don't have independent confirmation of yet, so take this with a grain of salt:

Hello George,

I know that you will add a wimpy disclaimer, if you publish this, and I understand that you are no longer living in the country, in which you and I were born. However, this information should get wider circulation than it will ever get in the main stream media.

Russian forces are still holding 12 of 22 Georgian servicemen taken prisoner in Poti last week, including two Yemini Jews, disguised as Arabs. On one of these, Russian military intelligence interrogators found a packet of reports, wrapped in plastic and taped to the man's back. This packet consisted of 'the highest level security matters.'

This concerned the ongoing plan to base Israeli fighter-bombers at Marneuli military airbase, 20 kilometers south of Tbilisi and that these aircraft were intended for a special air raid on the Iranian capital city of Tehran. It was originally felt that six aircraft were to be utilized, three attacking the city itself and three to attack targeted Iranian oil facilities.

The captured Israeli's papers, all written in Hebrew, when translated by the Russian GRU turned out to be somewhat different in nature. While one flight was indeed intended to attack various Iranian oil facilities, the second flight was planned to drop chemical warfare bombs on Tehran. These bombs, which were designed to blow open at a set altitude, were filled with weapons-grade anthrax and this anthrax, kept in a specially sealed box at the U.S. diplomatic offices in Tiblisi, came from Fr. Detrick in Maryland and their shipment had the approval of the President himself. Another twist to the bizarre plot was that the aircraft, made in the United States, were to have their Israeli marking masked with American markings and that these markings were to be applied in a water-based paint that could easily be hosed off when this flight returned to Georgia.

When the Russians learned of this, they immediately notified their Embassy in Tehran and subjected their Yemeni Israeli to what they called 'intensive interrogation,' not unlike the CIA's Bush-mandated torture. In this case, the 'subject expired' but not before revealing more of the joint Israeli-US activity.

In an abstract sense, the Russian counter attack on Georgia indirectly saved the lives of many thousands of Iranians.

The Americans, apparently, were totally unaware of the Israeli false flag portion of the operation. Had the BW attack been successful, the question arises as to whether the American military command would ever discuss any aspect of it. If any of the falsely-marked Israeli aircraft had been seen and wrongly identified as American, there would be heated denials and the matter would quickly be shoved under the carpet by the American media.

By the way, though I disagree with your use of wimpy disclaimers, I understand your perceived necessity of disassociating yourself from the promotion of revolution, for which one could possibly be charged with treason. Peaceful resistance, however, is still legal in Amerika and I advocate disorganized resistance, a method taught to me by the same people who have trained your brother-in-law.

Now that's a dynamite accusation, so I wrote back to see if I could get some detailed sourcing from my source:

"I "float", daily, around the United Nations in Geneva. Whenever there is a media story, there is always a back story, which is kept from the media but circulated within the halls. I can not state that this info comes from the ******* but the **** in Geneva, has the best intelligence network in the world. You also need to understand that state players gossip and engage in "shoptalk" constantly. We are all there to gather or dispense info.

The scuttlebutt is that Russia will be releasing the translations of the original Hebrew docs, as well as the American shipping docs, shortly.

This is why Olmert rushed to Moscow for damage control."

Remember, this is the scuttlebutt going on at the UN in Geneva.

 

However, what's clear is that Israel continues to harden its position on Iran with headlines today that "Israel had decided: Iran will not have nukes". 

 

And all of this compounds as we lurch forward to the October 7th date identified in the predictive linguistics work at www.halfpasthuman.com as when we'll slide into events that will dwarf 9/11 in terms of emotive values though at least mid January 2009.

 

And say, with all this intrigue going on, you don't suppose that FAA IFR flight plan computing error this week was a little back-channel messaging from the Russians to the US, do you?  The "FAA points finger at switch for server crash" is the latest... wonder what the IP address of the switch was? 

 

Might want to have an eye on computer systems just in case they become a 'message channel'.  OK, so not as robust or reliable  as the order wire channel in MIL-STD-188-141A FS-1045-1051, but what if we start seeing ATM Drop out?  Oh and that reminds me to mention:

 

Bad Mellons

"Bank of NY Mellon data breach affects 12.5 mln" has caught our eye this morning.

 

Personal Income Dropping

New figures out today from the bureau of Economic Analysis:

"Personal income decreased $89.9 billion, or 0.7 percent, in July, in contrast to an increase of $7.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, in June and an increase of $218.0 billion, or 1.8 percent, in May. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $114.7 billion, or 1.1 percent, in July, compared with a decrease of $208.0 billion, or 1.9 percent, in June and an increase of $595.9 billion, or 5.7 percent in May. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, in July, compared with an increase of $65.5 billion, or 0.6 percent, in June. The pattern of changes in income reflects the pattern of payments associated with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 (see page 2).

Real DPI decreased 1.7 percent in July, compared with a decrease of 2.6 percent in June. Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent."

Now here's the part where we need to be really precise - the discussion about whether folks are able to save money or not:

"Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $133.8 billion in July, compared with $272.9 billion in June. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 1.2 percent in July, compared with 2.5 percent in June. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods."

That's a nice way of saving, 'we don't count the decrease in net worth from housing refi's to fund SUV's.  You'll recall this was 'corrected' out of the data about a year and a half back, and that happened when the personal savings rate was going negative 1.7 to 1.9% per month.  Soo...if you don't like the figure, figure them differently!

 

Pre-Holiday Reality Check

The first thing on our agenda at the ranch today is to go off on a supply run.  Hmmm...why is that important?  Well, East Texas looks to be smack in the midst of the track for Tropical Storm Gustav, which seems to want to head just about for....here!  So, we will do a little stokcing up - gasoline, extra milk, bread, eggs...that sort of thing.  But not due to arrive (per present computer models) until about mid week next.  (When the coffee kicks in, I promise to build more coherent statements like "middle of next week...).  OK, so we have a storm coming.

 

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Coping: Net Control to Major Tom

Well, we have known for a long time that the PowersThatBe were feeling hemmed in by the Internet and that it would only be a matter of time until restrictions on use would show up.  So here we go with the headline that Comcast is about to impose a monthly limit of 250 GB on internet users.

 

Now that we're into bit-rate tariff schemes, it seems to me that we're seeing the groundwork laid to drive people out of individual webpreneurial efforts (bandwidth dependent) and folks like me who live, when not writing here) by doing consulting which menas pretty much constant connectivity to my 'desk' in a remote location via Microsoft's Remote Desktop, to an accounting system, and to other proprietary data tools.

 

No, the predictive linguistics won't be impacted, because that happens on a dedicated T-1 which the HPH folks lease.  But, for the home user (like yours truly) who might spend 50-60 hours online in a fairly intensive work environment this 250 GB limit is tantamount to saying "Nope, the PTB want to limit FaceBook, YouTube, Google Video, and many other 'unofficial sources' of news and information where regular folks connect with other regular folks.

 

To be sure, 250 GB is a fair chunk of data, but to a certain portion of the world - including web developers who work with database driven backend development - it's not that much.  Still, the Comcast PR department says it's:

-- Send 50 million e-mails

-- Download 62,500 songs

-- Download 125 standard-definition movies

-- Upload of 25,000 high-resolution digital photos

While Comcast is planning to offer additional bandwidth for $15 per 10 GB monthly, so a heavy/serious power user could face fees for one mon th at the 500 GB level of $375 on top of whatever their Comcast fees are, ands then termination.

 

The real answer is for everyone to put in fiber so we can enter the age where bit-rate tariffs go away.

 

But, just like Atomic Energy was going to make 'power too cheap to meter' when it was being hyped in the 1950's, so too lambdas (light-based data measurement) are present touted as the answer.  Sadly, the history of corporate cannibalism argues that NOTHING ever gets 'too cheap to tariff". 

 

Still, Comcast is not the only outfit trying to make a buck for shareholders, why even religion is tariffed as any fool can see - and huge media empires have been built on those revenue streams.

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One can only wonder whatever happened to the 'cooperative' concepts practiced among more civilized tribal peoples and 'cults'. 

 

All of which gets us to considering the concept of internal (to a group) stakeholders versus the  whole Western business paradigm built around external stakeholders who receive a portion of the what the real stakeholders put up....it's a way to 'own' a group, collective, or population without formally being called "slavery". 

 

Yet at its core, when some uses a group and exacts a portion of its  continuing payments for themselves putting nothing more than capital at risk, it comes (in my book) very close to slavery, indeed.  But rebranded and packaged with interest to make up for the falling purchasing power of fiat money over time, it's the ruling game of today and to say otherwise is to invite the label 'nutjob'.  Well, there it is.

 

Still, if you look around, cooperatives still work, being organized differently than the 'corporate' model.  One of the larger examples that comes to mind is Ace Hardware which decided to go cooperative in 1973.

 

But even 'going co-op' has its risks.  One has only to look back on all those little cooperative local community antenna outfits that existed in the 1950's when television was a lot younger.  There, groups of people banded together and set up their own 'mini' cable systems.  But, along came the big operators and bought up the community cooperatives and as a result of these 'roll-ups' (several layers of them, incidentally) is where 'cable outfits came from in the first place.

 

But while there's a model for small cooperatives to be 'rolled-up' by external stakeholders, the reverse is seldom true - meaning no examples come to mind at 6:22 AM over the second cup of coffee).

 

Me?  I'm a big fan of cooperatives for the simple reason that the ownership is retained by the customers. If I could find something like the Puget Sound Consumer Coop here in East Texas, I'd probably shop there, although our small (regional) stores are pretty good.

 

Revolutionary Change

A worthy email:

George,

 

I just read the one reaction to your comments and disclaimer on revolutionary change. I totally understand your need for a disclaimer, as I know you are already “on their list”. But I will not mince words. The total decay of this Nation will not be stopped at the ballot box as long as TPTB own the process, including the very corrupt boxes themselves. Also, it should be beyond question at this point that the checks and balances envisioned by the framers are to be ignored at will by those we have entrusted to enact them, with no consequences for their criminal negligence, malpractice or arrogant disregard for their oath of office.

 

On paper, it seems as if it should work, it should respond to the people’s wishes and respond to an orderly change process. Sorry, change is never orderly, not meaningful change, anyway. This situation has gone way too far down the road to the new aristocracy. Meanwhile, people are dying because of our simpering petition mentality… call your congressman, carry a placard. If you stand by and watch a 5 year old kid get the s..t kicked out of him and you have the physical ability or resources (read gun, knife, stick) to intervene by using force but you do not intervene because you are opposed to the use of force or violence, then you are in fact participating in the violence against the child ( or any victim ).

 

There is no free lunch.. even in Buddhism, the use of force is accepted to stop other force or violence. As long as we mope around and ignore the massive evidence that a criminal enterprise controls this country and the massive evidence that the electoral system is totally corrupted AND the massive evidence that the controlling majority of our elected officials are either outright cowards, downright ignorant or themselves in on the crimes, then we each are guilty of the deaths that are occurring through our criminal use of military force.

 

Ongoing mass murder requires immediate action, whatever it takes to jail those responsible and hold them for prosecution. Since the congress will not do it, WE MUST DO IT, whatever it takes.  (name withheld)  I know I’m on their list."

Kitchen Enlightenment

In advance of the gathering to take place here at the ranch over the 'high risk period (end of September for a 'pre-shock' and then October 7 and subsequent events, we've been fixing up the kitchen.  I think we're on the 4th or 5th version of "let's do over the kitchen, now.

 

So far, Elaine seems happy with this one.  The counters are a faux green granite (the real stuff is absurdly expensive and you can find plans on the net to do a look-alike job for a few dollars worth of paint and varathane/UREthane (or pourable food-grade plastic).  So that's going well.

 

Having decided on an Asia theme, I've been busy out in the shop with the dado blades in table saw building screens and what I hope will pass for fine joinery.

 

On my last trip to the royal dentist (he issues crowns, so he must be connected to royalty, I figured) I briefly slipped back into consciousness from the nitrous long enough to notice that one of the fluorescent lights in his ceiling has some really cool clouds.

 

Inquiring, I found the were available from www.azskyman.com for about $56 per panel so we chose a palm tree panel and a plain one that would compliment it, to give the kitchen the appearance of having a couple of skylights.

 

I then stumbled into town and picked up a couple of fluorescent light fixtures...went with the oak 'grid' kind because they will carry the look of the 'fine joinery' which is a zillion wood slats.  So if yoiu can picture this light (Lowes sku #80719) with those cloud photos in them, that's what the lights should come out looking like.  The lights happened to be on sale for $88 each.

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It's odd how this home remodeling stuff goes.  When I get around to doing something, almost invariably whatever I need is on sale.  Really quite peculiar and the only explanation is that if one is going with the flow of the Universe, things just work out in a particularly easy way.

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We should get some of it installed this weekend - and maybe I'll be able to present a picture of it on Monday (drop by, there will likely be a Monday edition this week in spite of the Holiday weekend - I don't want to get out of the habit of getting up early and being productive).

 

We're slowly (ever so) going through the house and making a conscious effort to turn each room into a unique place: Kitchen goes Asian, dining room goes African or tropical village, while the current 'garden' room will turn into a 1920's farmhouse veranda...  I'm trying to find some pictures of Saratoga Trunk - because between that and a trip to Disney World, a person can have a lot more fun than just living 'inside the box'.  Something we really despise.

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Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

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Thursday August 2008

Special Update

Democorps: Hiding Their Fat Cats

Hats off to the ABC Investigative Unit, which had a film crew in Denver this week filming the role of America's 'other government' which is busily cutting deals behind the scenes with the movers and shakers in the so-called democratic party.

 

Today, the headline is:  "ABC Reporter Arrested in Denver Taking Pictures of Senators, Big Donors".

 

You're welcome to be skeptical of the views held by a nutjob in East Texas that America has been taken over in a silent 'checkbook coup d’état'.  But watch the ABC reporter's arrest video and then tell me about 'right to peaceably assemble and ask yourself "Is there really a choice on the ballot this fall?"

 

Gold star for getting it right to ABC - the public's gotta right to know.  We have a Constitution that says so...or least we had a Constitution that held so.

 

Looking for a Big Bottom? Try the Beach...

My buddy JB said in a recent conversation that his "silent indicator" (copper) had perked up a bit lately and sure enough, when I look at the chart using my favorite (this week) technique, parallel price channels, it may have broken a month or so long down trend.

 

To be sure, there are many more technical ways to pick a stock than looking at a murky forecast of linguistic shifts coming down the pike, staring for a few hours at charts, and arriving at a decision.  But, on the other hand, a colleague of mine who makes much move lavish investment decisions than me mentioned that he'd bought a thousand shares of Ford (chart)  last week (*in part because he'd read somewhere that Ken Heebner had) and that he was looking for a 20¢ pop in the price.  I kindly offered to just lend him the prospective $200 gain and suggested that instead of risking more than 4-large, he might raise his sights a bit.

 

To my way of thinking, the risk/reward ratio has to be a hell of a lot better than a 20¢ which would translate to a 4.6% return on the trade before commissions and fees.  I can't get too excited about that.  Still, if my colleague can turn in those kind of numbers a dozen times a year with any regularity, I'd start to warm to the idea.  But, as of this morning, the trade is upside down and I don't know that I'll ask him whether he's been stopped out.

 

The disclosure about my investing philosophy is really quite simple: 1) I only manage my own money.  Your holdings are your own.  2) I only make a bet on an investment if there's a legit prospect of making at least a double in my trade and 3) I reserve the right to be cowardly and exit any trade at any time.

 

All of which gets me back to watching copper, JB's silent indicator.  The reason to watch copper is that there seems to be a fair correlation between copper and major economic stimulus in one of two forms:  Housing construction and war.

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Despite recent headlines that "In housing market, 'hints of a bottom'" are getting played on the MainStreamMedia, I have to add one more important disclosure: The only bottoms I've ever picked that were worth a damn were the bikini-clad female ones on certain beaches.  That's the extent to which any sane man should be picking bottoms as I see it. 

 

Since the Housing Crisis/Collapse started, I've seen no less than 984 bottoms called, and so far not a one of them has been right so far.  Trust the old farmer on this, you'll do much better at the beach.

 

And pack a bunch of sandwiches; the trip to the beach could enjoy many more months of being the better bottom-picking this market.  The Standard & Poor's/Case-Schiller report out this week reports that "Home prices tumbled in Second Quarter" and I just don't see that turning around anytime soon.  Especially given that the predictive linguistics work shows the Big Uglies to the global scene about the October 7th.  But, I don't want to sound like a broken record on this stuff.  Just watch. 

 

Oh, and a 'prequel to the sequel' may be visible come September 23 (or was it the 29th?)  (anyways, thereabouts) by Robert Hitt's work over at www.astroecon.com. 

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So if the smart folks reading the  S&P/Case-Schiller report are thinking the housing decline may last another year or longer, what do you think is fueling the little blip in copper?

 

Answer: Prospects for War.

 

The big headline in the UK this morning is "Military help for Georgia is a 'Declaration of War' says Moscow in extraordinary warning to the West". 

 

Several readers have written in saying things like "This is starting to look like a second Cuban Missile Crisis, isn't it George?"

 

Frankly, no, it's not. 

 

If you recall 1962's Cuban Missile Crisis, which Russian readers will remember as the "Caribbean Crisis" you need to recall that the West was not stomping on Russia's front door.  Instead, Mother Russia had a comfortable zone of captive 'buffer states', most of which have gone decidedly pro-West since the Berlin Wall came down back in 1989.

 

The President then was young, ready to take on the PowersThatBe (as exemplified by his attempt to wrest control of the banking system away from the banker's cabal via Executive Order 11110, about 9-months after the crisis.  Kennedy was the right leader at the right time, or we would all have mutant children from the radiation.

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We now fast-forward to today.  BOTH of the presidential wannbe's are decided pro-War.  As I noted earlier this week, you won't have an anti-War, pro-Peace choice on the ballot this fall.  As the headlines are telegraphing today, Obama's Dick Cheney, Joe Biden, is about as hard core pro-Western domination of the Middle East as you'll find.  At least equal to John  McCain in his hawkishness.

 

This assertion may sound a bit harsh, but the facts seem to support the the harsh viewpoint, especially when I read the stories under headlines like "Biden says nation needs more than a good soldier".

 

If the PowersThatBe want to really lock up their war lock (sic) on the future, they'd likely send in Joe Lieberman as John McCain's right-hand man, but we won't know who gets the nod until this weekend when a three-state roll-out is expected.

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The price of gold this morning seems to be bouncing upward, and along with it, the price of oil.  Tensions are heating up in the Middle East and the weight on the markets is yet to appear.  The US dollar is also weaker, so remember a good bit of the current and energy move is likely exchange-rate driven.

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I've made a note this morning to send my colleague a copy of this section by email, in which I admonish him not to try and pick Ford's bottom.  Instead, he should take his family to the beach and enjoy the fine sport of bottom-picking there. 

 

"Paper trades' only, mind you.  And keep those shifty eyes behind sunglasses or you may never hear the end of it," I'd add.  "Bring lots of suntan lotion & sun-block, and get all this beach-going out of your system by the end of September."

 

I don't have the heart to tell him to watch JB's 'silent indicator' over coming weeks, or that it's not the first sun seen at the beach that could be the killer.  It'd be the second sun to worry about; the one you can't carry enough sun block to handle. 

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We continue going back to a Debka.com story from July of this year that specifically references late September, early October as the time to strike Iran:

"The timing chosen for extending the Mossad chief’s tenure – early summer of 2008 – is indicative. Israeli intelligence estimates the summer months are critical for acting against Iran’s nuclear advances, especially uranium enrichment which Iran refuses to forego. If it is not stopped by September or October of 2008, it will be too late; Iran will have crossed the threshold to the last lap of its military program. "

The simple-minded farmer out in East Texas figures the Georgia matter is really a holding action/diversion to keep the Russians busy while the Iran agenda is advanced by the West.  And it seems to be working as "Russia warns US naval build-up may lead to war and accuses America of shipping arms to Georgia."

 

Who, us?  Watch that 'silent indicator'. Oh, and the other yellow one, too. Let's get the non-choice of candidates rolled out and keep Russia preoccupied, then turn loose our proxy to bomb Iran.

 

9/11 is clear enough evidence (and the prototype) to a student of markets that big diversions can shield the guilty from economic crimes of momentous proportions.

 

The bottom is not in until the 'diversion of attention' is played and is blamed for the ensuing market action. I'll just sit on my long bets until January-March -- after we've had the financial collapse and the distractions, thanks.

 

I'm a 'one-decision' investor and big bottoms really do matter.  If you want little bottoms, head for the nearest shoreline. Good hunting.

 

GDP Report

Before we get into the specifics of this morning's Gross Domestic Product Report, let me lay an interesting little chart on you.  I took the government's figures on GDP since 1947 on a quarterly basis and got to looking at it in constant dollar terms to see how things did growth-wise since 1947.  Makes for an interesting chart:

 

 

What this particular view suggests, when I look at it just sop, is that something changed in how the GDP was working sometime around 1987.  This is what I call the 'bounded markets' region.  Of course we all know that 'bounded' is the politic economic term for 'fixed' or 'rigged' markets and yet the evidence is there plain as day that the role of the Presidential Working Group on Markets, as well as the Federal Reserve, changed dramatically from the role of regulator s and money suppliers, to the role of 'economic control groups' and that role is presently in the process of expanding as both the Treasury and Fed are seeking to expand their 'authority' (which everyone seems to forget rests with the people, but that's another rap) and project the PowersThatBe/Shadow Government outcome on the rest of us.

 

Not trying to get harsh here, but you can see clear as day that since 1987 the 'free market capitalism' ideals have been relegated to the scrapheap of history.  yet, with a few exceptions (Paul and Tancredo come to mind) no one wants to admit that what we have now is a Socialist-style "controlled economy".  Just like Russia's used to be.

 

To be sure, when a technical innovation comes along, like the Internet Bubble, some people were lucky enough to make a pile of select stocks.  But, for every Microsoft Millionaire created, I'm suspecting that there was an Internet Bubble victim who lost money when things turned south.  Curiously, most economists don't try to figure the 'winners to losers' ratio, although and individuals, you'd think that would be THE most important kind of number to disclose if you were thinking about playing what's now a fairly rigged/bounded/controlled/decided outcomes game.

 

Also, don't forget that these government figures here are the 'constant dollar' variety.  In other words, we may be a big headline number in today's report, but surprise of surprises, when we dig into them a ways what do we get?  The revelation that when growth is 4% and inflation is 3.25% the real GDP is the difference between apparent and inflation-adjusted, for example.

 

So that's the real game - and one you won't be seeing on the stock-picker channels because who's going to buy advertising on that kind of news, huh?

 

So THE PLAN is to have 3.2% annual real GDP growth. 

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So now, using Ure's Theory of Rigged Markets, let's see how close to 3.2% we came in today's report, shall we?

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and equipment and software. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment.

Well, shoot,  there I go being off 0.1%.  Darn me, anyway.  Still, a hats off to the PTB for engineering this one nicely.

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What you're NOT supposed to be reading is how the "US, Europe, Japan planned March Dollar rescue -- Nikkei" the Japanese business paper reported this week.

 

This would be akin to the Wall Street Journal saying "Oh yeah, here's when we last rigged the markets..."

 

Bailing the Banksters

And then we have the press release getting little MSM splash today that the Office of Thirft Supervision is going through money at a breakneck speed:

"August 27, 2008 OTS 08 039 -

Record Reserves for Weathering Housing Market Distress Drive Thrift Industry Loss in Second Quarter of 2008 FOR RELEASE:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington, D.C. — The thrift industry posted a $5.4 billion loss for the second quarter of 2008, as institutions set aside record reserves for loan losses during the continued housing market downturn, the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) reported today.

During the second quarter, thrifts set aside $14.0 billion in loan loss provisions, the highest total on record. During the last four quarters, the industry has added more than $30 billion to loan loss reserves, driving down earnings but providing a cushion against the impact of rising loan delinquencies and other problem assets. The net loss during the second quarter was the second largest on record after the $8.8 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2007. In the first quarter of 2008, the industry lost $627 million.

Capital remained solid during the second quarter, with more than 98 percent of the industry exceeding the standard for well-capitalized.

“Solid capital and sizable reserves for potential loan losses show once again that thrift managers are responding appropriately to the challenges they face,” said OTS Director John Reich. “These two factors will serve the industry well in riding out the current crisis.”

Troubled assets (noncurrent loans and repossessed assets) rose to 2.68 percent of assets, up from 2.06 percent in the previous quarter and 0.95 percent a year ago.

Other highlights include:

At the end of the second quarter, there were 17 problem thrifts (institutions with composite examination ratings of 4 or 5), an increase from 12 thrifts in the previous quarter and 10 thrifts one year ago. The OTS supervised 829 thrifts with assets of $1.51 trillion at the end of the second quarter. In addition, OTS supervised 479 holding company enterprises with approximately $8.4 trillion in U.S. domiciled consolidated assets. Profitability, as measured by return on average assets (ROA), was a negative 1.41 percent in the second quarter, compared with negative 0.17 percent in the first quarter. A year ago, the industry ROA was a positive 1.02 percent.

This weekend for Peoplenomics subscribers, a bank official shares concerns about what's ahead... on the condition of anonymity, of course.  You'll see why...

 

Gustav Rebuilding

Tropical Storm Gustav, which nearly blew itself out of Hispaniola is heading for Jamaica and the Cayman's next.  Hurricane strength is possible and we expect it up here in our neck of the woods by next Thursday or so.

 

Them Floods

"Millions homeless after worst floods for 50 years in India."

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Flash flooding kills two in California & Aridzona?  Don't these states have calendars?  Who would believe flooding in Apache Junction & Mesa (east of hooked on Phoenix) AZ at this time of the year?

 

One More Nuke Jitter

Keep and eye on India-Pakistan:  "Militants killed in Kashmir siege."  Can you say 'revenge' next?

 

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Coping: Density Matters

Here's a great site which will get you to thinking about the unit price of all things of value.

 

Coins & Choppers Department

Check out this email:

"George

Black Choppers were conducting training exercises in Portland, Oregon  (Tuesday) night

Perhaps there will be forced use of the new one dollar coins. Perhaps preparing the response for the September quake?"

Hmmm...look like Hughes 500's with infrared human-trackers, to me...remind me to carry a space blanket....but all kidding aside, linguistics readers may recall my reference to Portland and a terrorism hot spot earlier this year as something out of the linguistics.  So, here's the media stream of it.  Let's see, Guam, Santa Fe, and where else still pending?  Maybe just exercises, but still curious...

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Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

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Wednesday August 27, 2008

Turning on the Economic Blender

As we lurch along toward the expected October to January dénouement of the global financial meltdown, we've got plenty of grist for the mill, including the Durable Goods Report released this morning:

"New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $2.9 billion or 1.3 percent to $219.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third consecutive monthly increase and followed a 1.3 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.8 percent.

Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up three of the last four months, increased $5.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $218.3 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent June increase.

Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up twenty-nine of the last thirty months, increased $6.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $824.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent June increase.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in July, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $335.8 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent June increase.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in July increased $4.5 billion or 6.3 percent to $76.3 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in July decreased $2.9 billion or 25.7 percent to $8.4 billion. "

This ought to come as welcome news to the market.  It would be a good reason to see a pre-Labor Day weekend run-up, don't you think?

 

Already, before the report event came out, gold and silver were up and the dollar was down.

 

A couple of other items to toss in your economic blender:

 

Despite the Fed discussion that inflation may stubbornly persist into 2009, my deflationist pal Jas Jain has been charting the future inflation trend which seems headed back for the 0 level (100 on the chart a) and perhaps below, as we work on through the year.

 

 

Certainly does seem the inflation rate should be chilling, but it's not showing up at the gas pump or the grocery store.  Cost me $75 to fill the pickup this week on one of my rare trips to town.

 

The wring-out in the mortgage market continues, although I got one email today (the first in a while) telling me of some outfit that could get me "Over 100% CLTV" financing with a 580 credit score or better.

 

Census Notes

The poverty level held about even last year while the number of people without health insurance declined somewhat, according to a report from the Census Bureau.

 

Cost of Bank Failures

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may have to borrow money to see it through the expected wave of bank failures. Now, I'm just a dime-store MBA here, but the People's Economist is scratching his head wondering about the use of the term borrow; like it's ever going to be paid back?

 

Terra Intruding

Although humans like to think they have supreme power over nature, and evidenced by our relentless resource-stripping of the once well-balanced planetary systems, it turns out that it's just not so.  There are repeated, and sometimes not too subtle hints that Ma Nature can trump the financial markets pretty much on a whim.  A couple of reminders of this in the headlines today"

 

Gustav's Coming

And with the tropical storm that dumped torrential rains on Haiti, oil prices have popped up based on fears that a lot of Gulf of Mexico oil production will be 'shut-in' till the storm passes.

 

Oh, THOSE Quakes

If you're a longtime reader, you no doubt remember that somewhere along mid summer (before the fall equinox) we were supposed to get the second big earthquake; China's 'wedding quake' being the first.  We've got a couple of quakes that while not as big as China's are certainly making headlines.  One was in Peru, where a moderate quake of 6.3 hit about 400 miles northeast of Lima. The second, in Russia's Lake Baikal region (Siberia) was first reported much stronger, but USGS puts it only at a 6.3, however, these things get revised from time to time.

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Both of these are right on the borderline of being headline grabbers -- one of the attributes for such events popping out of the timestream - but whether these are the event that was referenced in the data will remain open until we get to the end of the summer quake window at the equinox.

 

Wildfire

Not making as many headlines, but up in Idaho, nearly 20 homes were destroyed by a wildfire pushed along by 50-mile an hour winds.

 

Thus, as the third day of trading gets underway, the stock futures are pointing toward a lower open, blaming the normal perturbations of Ma Nature for upsetting the financial craps games underway in the markets.  Yeah, I know - how rude.

 

Warming?

What a time to sell 'global warming' - go check out the chart here.  Easy sale, huh?

 

Soldier Gathering

When you live in the corporate world for a while, you start to notice behaviors among the worker bees.  One of the habits of people in groups is that when they want something to happen, or if they are trying to force an issue, they will go around to other workers and talk up their position and try to draw others into their personal life-drama.  In psychological terms, this is called 'soldier gathering'.

 

We see how this goes on, although at  a much grander scale, in international politics as well.  You can see it in headlines like this one:  (Russia's president) "Menvedev seeks support from China, Allies on Georgia."

 

Not like the West isn't doing a little soldier gathering in kind:  Former UK Foreign Secretary "Miliband seeks back on Russia" from Ukraine. 

 

Ever so much like choosing up sides to play dodge-ball, isn't it?

 

Meantime, under a near media black-out, the US continues building forces ion the Persian Gulf. One metals analyst figures this will be bullish for gold.

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The 'soldier gathering' also plays out in domestic politics as well.  As it did at the DNC meeting in Denver last night as Hillary Clinton urged democorps to united to stop John McCain. 

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The way soldier gathering works (as Hillary turned her soldiers into Obama soldiers) is that there's sometimes a payoff along the way.  Is there a cushy job in Clinton's future for turning over her minions?  Almost certainly.

 

And, is Russia willing to 'give' on some of their deal points with China in order to push them along into their side of the Georgia dispute?  I'd bet on it.

 

NIMBY

You know what NIMBY means, right?  "Not in my back yard".  That's the underlying flavor - or more of an aftertaste, really - in the wake of the Mississippi immigration raid this week that netted nearly 600 illegals working at a plant in Laurel.  Headlines are hitting the wires now like "Fear grips immigrants after Miss. plant raid".

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As you read the accounts, you might get the feeling that there are more than a few in that part of Mississippi who are upset.  I'd expect it: No doubt the people arrested were economically important to the community.  They rented homes, shopped, and participated in local life.  Their arrest will have an economic impact and it won't be good.  Rents will be late, and home will likely go vacant.

 

But such is the price of uniform enforcement of laws.  Those who have mad money on catering to the illegals in America may not like coming to terms with it, which is why the corpgov parties 'amnesty' ideas that get floated now and then are so appealing.  We are, it seems, all in favor of strong borders so long as there's no personal economic cost to us, like a vacant rental home or such.  Just another rendition of NIMBY - America's double standards.

 

Try it yourself:  seems to work on oil refineries, oil drilling, building of prisons and jaiols, halfway houses, and nuclear power plants.

 

FAA OOPS

A glitch in the FAA's computer network caused some monumental foul-ups in air traffic on Tuesday.  The system which handles IFR (instrument flight rules) flight plans came back online last night, but there may be some hangover from this as some aircraft may need to be repositioned after missing flights on Tuesday.

 

The Runs: Charges? What Charges?

I can't help but note that although Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is facing federal corruption charges, he won the Alaska GOP primary on Tuesday.  I'll spare you my stock speech on the intelligence of voters, or the one about the hijacking of the once legitimate Republican Party that held forth values like small central government, balanced budgets, few foreign commitments, and other long-lost values.

 

Coping: God Goes "Over The Edge"

Folks in Portland, Oregon are likely to be getting a lot of one-dollar change in the form of the new Presidential coins being minted.

 

Already, emails are flying around the Internet decrying the new coins as a dangerous substitution of 'new money' because the term "In God We Trust" is missing from the face.  Here's part of the email that landed this morning:

"You guessed it -- IN GOD WE TRUST' IS GONE!

If ever there was a reason to boycott something, THIS IS IT!

DO NOT ACCEPT THE NEW DOLLAR COINS AS CHANGE

Together we can force them out of circulation.

Please Send to all on your mail list!"

However, despite the emails, the truth of the matter seems to be that the new dollars are not 'Godless".  A story out of the Grand Rapids (MI) Press from last week shows quite clearly that "In God We Trust" is actually printed on the edge of the coin where it's virtually unreadable.

 

All of which brings me to the inescapable conclusion that the One Worlders have driven even God over the edge.

 

Kuwait A Minute

A follow-up note:

"I was thinking today about the write up from Kuwait. Workers standing in line for a change to work 18 hrs a day, 7 days a week for pennies. That has to be the dream of the folks running our society during this Bush term, slaves, lots and lots of legal slaves, with more standing in line for the chains. Cheap gardeners, cheap baby sitters, cheap slaves."

Just so long as their periodic arrest doesn't mean vacancies in those rentals...

 

George The Wimp?

A reader letter:

George,

I like reading your daily column. While I don't always agree with you I do like the discussions you bring up. I know my opinion may mean squat to you, I just wanted to say that I was sorely disappointed with your pseudo disclaimer today after posting a comment from a reader about the DNC.

"Let me quickly add the disclaimer: I'm not fomenting or endorsing revolution in an active sense; I'm merely reporting a global movement in that direction. Revolutionary change is possible under the Constitution through peaceable means using processes of elections and laws and adhering to strict nonviolence. That's the only kind of revolutionary change I endorse."

When I read your column, I didn't construe that you agree nor disagreed with the commentator. You have had posters comments that both agreed and disagreed with your point of view in the past. Regardless of this though, why are you back peddling on some comment about a revolution? You could have easily just of said that you didn't agree on that note or at least not in a way the advocated violence, etc. - but you went out of your way to post that.

I'm not blind, nor stupid. You are cowtowing to the .govs on the net that may take a dislike to that comment. Yes, the Bush Admin has already or is in the process of trying to make any verbiage they don't like on the net into a possible home terrorist charge. It is a way to bully people on the internet to police themselves - you just did their work for them George.

You are the same person who keeps pointing out the little shell games played by politicians, financiers and the like. Freedom of speech is an ideal Americans hold dear and you just caved into the intimidation factor out there to cover your ass.

There are so many more important battles out there to fight. You know that better than anyone, yet you belittle yourself like this. Hold any beliefs you want, but please have the backbone to stand by them regardless of the crap factor out there. Even these times won't last forever.

When time comes to confront the corporate hijacking of America there shouldn't be any question which side of the barricades I'll be one.  BUT, in the meantime, I'm being clear that although I may admire people of conscious who don't pay their taxes to IRS, each of us has to pick and choose our own battles.  There are a lot of battles I choose not to right, so I do things like pay my income tax right on schedule, buy a license plate for the vehicles, and pay property taxes that arguably  fund more government than is really necessary.

 

The point of my 'disclaimer' was to remind readers that radical/revolutionary change is possible through due process, which is my preference.  What I failed to explain adequately - and we don't have time for it this morning - is what the "Summer from Hell" will really be like in 2009 if indeed the global economic collapse gets underway in the October through January period and seems the case from the predictive linguistics.  The most radical thing we can do is to hijack the timestream - which we'll get into next week.  That's perfectly legal, because, as we all know, time machines don't exist.  At least not as you'd think....

 

Truth for  the Time Monks

As they make plans to launch a series of free-to-the-public 'timecasts' on coming events this fall to give everyone a 'heads-up', there's this from a reader who appreciates their near-constant reference to eating pies to calm themselves down while reading the signs and portents of the future:

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Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

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Tuesday August 26, 2008

The Global Confidence Game

We start this morning's observations by reminding readers that it's probably best to think of the author, and his pals the time monks at www.halfpasthuman.com as an odd hybridization between Diogenes of Syncope and Lao Tzu.

 

The later, of course, is considered by most to be the founder of the Cynic school, and aside from some quirky personal behaviors, and the rumors quest for an honest man, is thought to have claimed that "Humans have complicated every simple gift of the gods."   His reviews were mixed: "Sympathizers considered him a devotee of reason and an exemplar of honesty. Detractors have said he was an obnoxious beggar and an offensive grouch."  Judging by my inbox, I'd say it's a close fit.

 

Lao Tzu (to use just one spelling, others of which include Laozi 老子; pinyin: Lǎozǐ; Wade-Giles: Laosi; also Lao Tse, Laotze, Lao Zi, Lão Tử, and other variations) was a a monish sort who's behind the Tao of Lao Tzus, more correctly of late spelled the Daodejing of Laozi.  His outlook on this?  "Laozi encouraged a change in approach, or return to "nature", rather than action. Technology may bring about a false sense of progress. The answer provided by Laozi is not the rejection of technology, but instead seeking the calm state of wu wei, free from desires."

 

All of this is an important disclosure if you're to get the motivation of this site and the works of our time monks, as we collectively stare at 'hot dates' around September 25/29 and again October 7th and ponder what the Universe has in store for us, which we'll perhaps get to one of these mornings.  It should be sufficient to say that our outlook is rather 'detached' and perhaps just a "wu wei" bit cynical at times.  The focus is less on making money and more on making progress. Along the way, bumping into similarly motivated humans is a rare event.

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The role of honesty (Diogenes) and attachment to 'things' (Lao Tzu) will fall neatly into place with just one more bit of background: You need to know about how "confidence scams" are played.  Again, from Wikipedia:

"Persons of any level of intelligence are vulnerable to deception by experienced con artists. Confidence tricks exploit human weaknesses like greed, dishonesty, vanity, but also virtues like honesty, compassion, or a naïve expectation of good faith on the part of the con artist.

Just as there is no typical profile for swindlers, neither is there one for their victims. Virtually anyone can fall prey to fraudulent crimes. … Certainly victims of high-yield investment frauds may possess a level of greed which exceeds their caution as well as a willingness to believe what they want to believe. However, not all fraud victims are greedy, risk-taking, self-deceptive individuals looking to make a quick dollar. Nor are all fraud victims naive, uneducated, or elderly.[2]

Confidence tricksters often rely on the greed and dishonesty of the mark, who may attempt to out-cheat the con artist, only to discover that he or she has been manipulated into losing from the very beginning. This is such a general principle in confidence tricks that there is a saying among con men that "you can't cheat an honest man."

Clear enough to you should be the notion that Diogenes would likely not be very successful in today's corporate world; too much independence of thought flies in the face of workgroups.  Moreover, Diogenes would likely have no success whatsoever in his quest if he went looking for his "honest man" among the fixed income market salesmen, defense industry lobbyists and their ilk, or among folks in the mortgage industry.  Slim pickings among hedge fund managers, too.

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Thus, properly braced with a double-shot of context, we're now ready to explore the rather peculiar behavior of the U.S. dollar, which as the chart above was showing, was actually up a bit this morning.

 

Remembering how the Global Economic Confidence Game is a zero-sum affair as long as it hangs together, we recall that when the "dollar extends gains vs. Euro, pound falters" that something else on the other side of the equation should go down.  Enter oil and the precious metals.

 

Because there's a chance that Hurricane Gustav, which is headed toward Hait, then Cuba, and perhaps into the Gulf of Mexico Oil Patch, could cause some production issues, the price of oil is not falling as far or fast as otherwise could be expected int he face of a Dollar rally.

 

So that leaves Gold and Silver to be a whipping this morning as there's got to be this quid pro quo of the markets.

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It's about here that you could raise a hand and ask a sensible question: "So if the US is continuing to print up promised-backed debt paper, why is the dollar going up?"

 

To put it simply, there's a global confidence game underway.

 

Pretend we have all just pulled up chairs to a poker game, and the table stakes are pieces of paper which have strange symbols and incantations on them.  While we think these will have some meaning in the future (symbols and incantations appear through human history, after all) we have not absolute assurance that this will always be so.

 

Nevertheless, we all start to play our card game, and as long as no one brings up the issue of convertibility to anything absolute (as in x ounces of gold or silver, or better, so many BTU's of energy) the game continues.  Thanks to the miracle of inflation, every so often, we get to dump another basket of paper into the game so it appears the stakes get bigger over time.

 

Mind you, not one player at the table has any incentive to call out the paper for what it is.  The reason?  If at any point the foolishness of the game were revealed, then all table stakes would drop in value and thus all the players would lose.

 

This is precisely the position China finds itself in today:  Here's a country with huge human capital which has bootstrapped its economy up by trading paper for its goods and services.  Logically, for China to announce to the world that "Paper is worthless!" would endanger their stakes in the game just like anyone else.

 

But with recent events in Georgia, Russia may be getting a little edgy about all this paper floating about.  In fact, Russian lawmakers are asking for recognition of two breakaway areas in the Georgia region.  Of particular concern is that next week, BP Dick Cheney is going to the area, the analog to pulling up a chair at the table.  Then there's the matter of missile "defense" systems being put into Poland, which the West has turned into a marvelous 'create your own enemy' situation; one we're getting unfortunately skilled at. 

 

Thankfully, US voters are pretty forgetful, perhaps because we're the most highly medicated society on earth.  That's how the ruling corpgov paradigm can get away with 'stacking' the pseudo-elections in November such that they offer no anti-war candidates, no plan to concentrate on the transformation of America's economic model, infrastructure, or revitalize farming along the organic meme.  Instead, both parties are tacitly pro-war, anti-change, and desperately pumping up the old paradigms.

 

This pumping old paradigms is useful, however, because it keeps the liar's poker game with all that paper with the symbols and incantations on them going.  If you think the recent headline that "Antidepressants impair driving ability of the depressed" is worrisome, you'll notice how there's corresponding headline in the MainStreamMedia that logically extends the research to the area of political choice.

 

Thus, police stop people for drinking and driving, but who gets pulled over for being on an antidepressant?  Reason: There's a lot of lobby money on the table from the pharmaceutical industry.

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A story in the Washington Times today counters the notion that Obama's Cheney (as the Wall st. Journal dubbed Joe Biden Monday) is a Washington "outsider".  "Lobby ties counter Biden's 'outsider' label.  Better: "My Son, the Lobbyist: Biden's Son a Well-Paid DC Insider".  The nut doesn't fall too far from the tree.  Make room for another chair at the table.

 

We are again wondering how campaign fund raising is going when headlines like "U.S. Senators Lobby Anti-Aircraft, Anti-Armor Systems for Georgia".  Yup, that's the way to play poker, alright:  Call and raise.

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Desperate as the players at the Global Paper Poker Sweepstakes are not to reveal to the public that it's all a game in the end, the absurdities in the headlines thus become clear:  "Dollar rises on speculation oil decline to Bolster U.S. Economy."  How's that again?  Our economy is crashing, and people can't afford gas or heating oil, not to mention food at the store and that's good for the Dollar?

 

The talk that "Beijing swells dollar reserves through stealth" has me wondering if they're not buying up dollars in order to keep the value of their holdings of scribblings and incantations from falling apart.

 

Sooner or later, this little poker game is going to get its final call.  Maybe Russia and China will team up to demand something other than printed paper for their real things  When it all comes together, along in about the last week of September into the first week of October, you'll want to have the seat belt on tight.  The Drop may leave you yelling "Wu wei!"

 

The OTHER Confidence Game

Consumer confidence due out in a half hour.  I'm no more confident than I was a month ago that a muddle-though can be navigated this fall.

 

Media Hype

If you're looking for the headlines about the DNC meeting in Denver, you've come to the wrong place.  My view is that with both parties in the "war promoter" column, there's no option left for this fall but a a write-in.

 

Headlines like "Denver drama: Clintons try for second act" forgot an important preposition: 'melo'.  Go look up 'melodrama'.  Seems to fit.

 

A Withdrawal Date

The headline "Iraq PM: "U.S. Agrees to withdraw troops by 2011".  But don't put any stock in it yet.  Could be just normal rotations, the way this has been going.

 

Let's see: March 20, 2003 to maybe late 2011.  Hmmm...about 8½ years. 

 

Another Blow

This time, Hurricane Gustav is the source of the jitters and judging by the tracking map, I'd guess the arrival of the wind & rains here in East Texas from a possible New Orleans to Houston area landing could be around Wednesday or Thursday of next week..  Already, folks are worried about a Cat 5 event.  Nope, wouldn't want to be in Nawlin's next Wednesday...

 

Pakistan Collapsing

Slow motion, for sure, but the turmoil there is deepening.  Not particularly surprising since the HPH folks called in nearly 6-months in advance.

 

West bank Construction Up

"Israeli West bank building 'doubles'" notes a BBC headline.

 

Corrections Department

OK, yeah, it was a slip of the coffee yesterday when I referred to the Sec. State as #3 in line to succession.  It's the speaker of the House.  Sec State is # 4 behind the President Pr Tem of the Senate.  I sit corrected.  What do you expect on a Monday?

 

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Coping: Limited Choices

Several readers, like me, are noticing the lack of real choice in the elections this fall:

"Dear George,

For some time now I have been following your exceptional website and gleaning what little information you have been willing to share with the general public. Today you connected the dots for me. I am willing to believe that the event you are looking for on October 07, 2008 will be a Court Ruling on the Obama Birth Certificate which will find that he was not born in the United States, thereby negating his ability to be elected and serve as POTUS. This will have an emotional impact that will be felt for the requisite 3-6 months as the PTB successfully install the persons of their choice having blindsided the American people once again. There are many people who are deeply emotionally invested in this Presidential race, and they are in for a shocker.

A few years back a friend of mine who is rather well connected told me about the "ruling families" and that they, the PTB, plan tens of years in advance for their hold on power. It is a game for their gain, to select the candidate of their choice then find the right patsy to serve as opposition. All others will be ignored."

Solar Notes

While I await one last component from www.solarhome.org to get my 1 KW solar array installed and fired up, a reader on a similar quest for power independence sends this...

George, a quick note on sourcing alt. power. Sun Electronics (www.sunelec.com)  in Miami is THE place to buy solar panels and inverters. Learned about them from my brother-in-law, a long-term cruising sailor. Great prices, and they have stuff in stock. They have tremendous volume, lots of business to S. America, apparently.

 

Don't expect them to help with installs or educate you on basics, they are too busy. I exchanged some emails with John Kimball, the Pres of Sun Electronics and he said he was working 7 days a week from 7am to about 2- 3 am (!!!!!) they are that busy. Seems a lot of folks wonder if "The Grid" will be stable much longer, myself included. My system is NOT grid-tied, don't want anyone messing with my stuff, I even plan on wiring separate household circuits to be completely isolated.

 

Your point of not telling your power company (or local gvmt) about your PV system is well-founded, I hope to keep my panels hidden from street view also. I have a 48 volt system I am in process of installing, with 6 Evergreen/SUN 190w panels and a 3600 watt Outback Inverter. Battery bank consists of 8 L16 6 volts in series, purchased locally from Batteries Plus+.

 

The BEST place to buy cable that I have found is (really, this is not a joke) a place called Genuinedealz.com in Brunswick, GA. Great prices, FAST shipping never an order screw-up, although I seem to remember they used to be in KY. I am also a (currently land-bound) liveaboard sailor so tend to go marine grade with everything I do.

 

My background is in electronics so it is a lot more fun doing this for myself than for an employer or client. Keep up the great writing about "the great de-leveraging" - sounds like a PT Barnum call to get folks to head to the exits. Hmmmmmm, how appropriate..."

Just to make sure we're clear on a couple of points here:  1)  If you don't know with absolute certainty what you're doing with electricity hire a professional licensed electrician to do the work.  and 2)  As long as you are not using the grid-tie function,. an inverter-charge can be used without notifying your power company - it's just a great big scaled-up uninterruptible power supply.  However, when you turn on the grid tie function, then you've got regs and rules to comply with.

 

Street Level Economics: Kuwait

Remember Kuwait?  Country we saved for freedom?  Ever hear much about what's going on there?  Me either.  So I was pleased to get this first-hand account from a reader.  One caveat, this is a gritty-eyed street-level view, uncensored and a single source only:

"George: Been a few since last time…

Cost of Living has skyrocketed here in Kuwait. To the point we’ve had riots. Dunno if it fits with the meme being given by the Monkish Ones, but to relate: the Peasants are revolting. (Cue Mel Brooks: “You bet, they stink on ice!”) Yeah. All is not well here in Kuwait. The ‘foreign guest workers’ so euphemistically named in the local English newspaper have been getting a mite ‘uppity’ lately, and having the bad form to be in open revolt. Leastways they were last couple of weeks… up until the Kuwaiti Ministry for Public Safety (read Gestapo) unleashed a battalion worth of Kuwaiti Special Forces on the rioting crowds.

Between the billy clubs and CS, they handled it really quickly. All the ‘foreign agitators’ were arrested and deported posthaste back to whatever third world pesthole they spawned from. Now, turning off my ‘snark-o-meter’, what essentially happened was a whole bunch of Indonesian and Bangladeshi workers got pissed off at being pissed on, and subsequently went on a 4 ward rampage demanding their rights (the bounders!) They burned a bunch of cars, one police station, and generally made it look like the LA Riots.

Us Americans weren’t in much danger that I can tell, but still, unsettling to see it. Seems the fair rights they demanded was less work (they currently work a 14-18 hour shift daily) and fair pay, (they were promised 60 Kuwaiti Dinars a month but actually only see 12 KD a month) after their sponsor company gets through railing them. It’s kind of like that song: “I owe my soul to the company store…” The company that enslaved them I mean employed them takes out $$$ for food, housing and their work visa. It’s a titanic screwing if you realize that 60KD as of current exchange rates is equal to $228 dollars using the conversion of $3.80 to the KD. They get left with 12KD… that’s like $45 US by the time they are done getting f’ed.

Yeah… 7 days a week, 18 hour days at ball breaking work and they LINE UP back in the home country for the opportunity to work here. It’s when they got bent over double so openly that the strikes and riots started. That scared the piss out of the Kuwaitis as they are wholly incapable of working at anything other than buying Lamborghinis and counting their cashola. The concept of the peasants revolting spurred not a debate of “How can we improve things?” but “Do we use non lethal means first to try and calm things before sending in heavy armor?” Like I said, ugly in capital letters, 24 point boldface if you will.

Now that things have calmed, they ARE trying to come up with a resolution, but it don’t look good for the home team so to speak…or is it the away team? Dunno about that but in this case, any foreigner who looks like they might even think about Rioting is done

Big reason was the food prices. Food costs are a big issue for them as well. That jug o’Pepsi I bought in December for 200fils? A dream. Try 550fils now… that’s over ½ a Kuwaiti Dinar and a huge increase since December. Also, the famous gold marts here are now getting hemmed up selling gold chains and beauty stuff. The Kuwait gold markets have had some issues with improperly marked gold… as in 24K ain’t necessarily so. Buddy of mine took a beautiful gold bling rope home that was marked 23K as a gift. Cost him the proverbial chunk o’cash… Marked 23K… In reality, when he got home and was having it appraised to insure it, the jeweler pointed out it was like 14K if even that. Needless to say, buyer beware. "

All of this goes to the linguistic prediction out of HPH that in the wake of the global break of the Great Poker Game/Confidence Game of Paper that a kind of global grassroots rebellion against corporatized globalism is expected to be in full swing by Summer 2009 - The Summer from Hell.  Even  in out of the way places, including Mongolia a month or so back, we were seeing people taking to the streets to exert more direct local control over their future.

 

Globally the word "riot" and "rioting" are coming up more and more frequently.  We've made a Google TrendLabs bookmark of the term "riot" and although we are in a low now, we're as usual looking to the horizon for what's ahead.

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Speaking of trends, remember the stuff in the predictive linguistics about how we'd be seeing a major increase in the UFO sighting meme?  Well, click the Google TrendLabs link here and notice how there have been three pretty good spikes of UFO reports in the news of late.  Again, momentarily decline below averages, but the three recent spikes on the lower (news) line are very apparent.

 

The DNC Dance

All the MSM are having just so much fun and ad revenue based on Denver.  Here's a typical email from a reader who has broken out of the MSM-induced hypnosis:

George, I know you're no fan of Hillary Clinton. Nor am I. But you would be remiss in overlooking the fact that the DNC is shredding all semblance of a working democracy in its haste to crown Barack Obama.

 

1. Never mind that the electoral allocation was suddenly and inexplicably changed by Dean and his cronies to proportional from winner-take-all (which is still the case for the general election). This change had the peculiar effect of giving an advantage to Obama in caucus states, when by historical standards Clinton would have won based on the sheer number of high electoral value states that she took. Why is this important? Because it is ludicrous to nominate a candidate based on a set of criteria that is different than that to be used in the general election. But this is precisely what the DNC has done in its rush to crown Obama.

 

2. Never mind the many instances of rampant fraud and abuse by Obama supporters and operatives during several caucuses, particularly Texas. http://www.wewillnotbesilenced2008.com/video/index.htm 

 

3. Never mind that FL and MI were disenfranchised for exercising their constitutional right to vote -- as if it were a *crime* to step ahead of Iowa and NH.

 

4. Never mind that Howard Dean created al possible obstacles to even allow the millions of people in these two states to cast their votes again, when he had plenty of time to do so.

 

5. Never mind the fuss about whether Clinton's name *should* be placed in nomination at the Convention. I mean, what the he** is going on here? A candidate gets 18 million votes -- nearly 50% of all voting Democrats -- and we have to ask ourselves whether that candidate is entitled to have her name placed in nomination??

 

6. Never mind all of this. Because the rumor among delegates this afternoon is that the DNC has now requested delegates to submit their votes IN WRITING before the roll call. Just so that Howie Dean and his side-crook Pelosi can be assured of the outcome and avoid an potentially *embarrassing* moment, live an on camera at the Convention.

 

Well, it seems that folks aren't taking it anymore, George. Watch the first two videos on this page.

http://chicagoagainstobama.wordpress.com/ 

 

And then scroll down the comments on THIS page:

 http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/2008/08/24/the-newest-dnc-twist-to-screw-us-over/

 

 Regardless of how you or I feel about Hillary Clinton -- and let's be clear, I don't trust any of the *candidates* from the two mainstream parties -- a sensible, rational person should be outraged by what the DNC is pulling now. This isn't about Billary; this is about democracy. Denver will not be a friendly place for Obama this week.

 

Revolution is coming. The webbots were right.

Let me quickly add the disclaimer: I'm not fomenting or endorsing revolution in an active sense; I'm merely reporting a global movement in that direction.  Revolutionary change is  possible under the Constitution through peaceable means using processes of elections and laws and adhering to strict nonviolence.  That's the only kind of revolutionary change I endorse.

 

Having said that, what I do strongly encourage people to do is vote with your wallet.  The vote on election day counts once (*certain states excepted ;-))  But with the proper use of your own personal financial decisions you can VOTE EVERY DAY.  I try to...

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Monday August 25, 2008

The Runs: Something Ain't Right/ Going for 32

Although the nominal "Democratic" party is meeting in Denver this week to pick its presidential candidate, the evidence continues to mount that America no longer is a two party nation, but rather a single party which I've labeled the democorps and the republicorps to remind us that both parties seem to be very much 'in the pocket' of the corporations and special interests that have seized the nation via their campaign contribution checkbooks; hijacking the system at ballpoint for "access".

 

In case you missed the alternate reality, a couple of years back a new Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi was talking about a withdrawal from Iraq.  But no, you ain't heard much of that lately.  Nossir, the democorps have become nothing more than War Party 2, or should I say Oil Party 2?  Pelosi's calls to 'begin anew' are little more than theatrics, made possible by an equally controlled (via the advertising checkbook) MainStreamMedia, which hasn't held a politician accountable for much of anything in recent memory.  Even the John Edwards case was mainly a tabloids and 'net story.  But such are the times, I reckon.

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This weekend, I explained in some detail for Peoplenomics.com subscribers how Ms. Clinton could end up back in the White House to continue the now 28-year occupation of the White House by the Bush-Clinton-Bush aristocracy, whose main accomplishments are rampant inflation, several financial disasters including the Housing Collapse now underway, and I've given up counting how many wars to 'defend America.'

 

Most mornings, I focus on matters economic - and we'll get to those in a moment.

 

But perhaps the most important news story of the week is the odd one involving Barack Obama, Hillary C, and John McCain.

 

Recall, if you will that in April of this year, John McCain's Citizenship was established by a Senate resolution.  And because he was a sponsor, Senator Obama can't claim ignorance on this point of law, which makes his sponsorship (with Ms. Clinton) almost suspect.  All a little to pat for my taste.  Strange, eh?

 

Now we're watching as a lawsuit has been filed to make Obama prove his citizenship, as there are multiple stories about as to whether he was born in Hawaii, Kenya, or Indonesia.

 

This intrigues the hell out of me, because if the issue is settled against Obama in the courts, then who will pick the democorp nominees for the White House?  I mean "Poll fears ahead of Democratic convention" aside, there's really no choice at the voting booth this November.  It appears to me that's been hijacked.

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As I have it figured, the US defense industry has nothing to worry about: The wars on terror and for oil are full speed ahead regardless of whoever ends up sitting in the chair, or just down the hall. 

 

We already know that Hillary is pro-war.  And I suppose you remember the VP candidate's position: "Biden in 2007: I am a Zionist".  So voting for the democorp isn't going to change the war track.  Pelosi won't, Clinton won't and seems that Joe Biden is, as the Wall Street Journal points out this morning "Obama's Cheney."

 

Would McCain and whoever on the republicorp side be less so?  No change of policy there:  Of course, they're 'all in' for the war and the bombing of Iran and let's kick it up a notch with Russia while we're at it....

 

Still, Iran's president continues to make verbal attacks on Israel, which has me wondering if I'm the only one who's seen "Lord of War".  The only winners in war are the arms dealers.

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The only thing missing to set off the next escalation(s) is some trigger event that which will justify the "more important, and longer wars" position of both parties.  As of now, it's probably (based on the fledgling science of predictive linguistics) coming in early October.  Say around the 7th, as I've mentioned in the past.  A collapse of one of the 'too big to fail' banks and a lockup of international markets.  A Herstatt nightmare going global.  And no matter how bad the October headlines get, I'm saying as clearly as I can and far in advance "it's all too pat."  War is Big Business in spades.

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But don't give up hope, just yet.  Although both 'political' parties are controlled by the PowersThatBe (those who write the checks and call in the plays from the sidelines, and enjoy unfettered 'access' unavailable to mere voters like you and me), their secret societies and clubby meetings have their limitations.  Seems their control of what could be described as  as the timestream is not complete. 

 

Now that you are a little more aware of how your choices have been pre-screened & sanitized to confine your thinking to whatever on the box in the livingroom, just watch how they play it out.  And if you thought the Gore-Bush melodrama of 2000 was something,  you ain't seen nothing yet.

 

Shariah-compliant Vs. Usury

You remember our discussion last week about how when you buy and sell shares in a gold or silver ETF, you don't have convertibility to the underlying metal unless you have 50,000 shares or some huge position?  Well, check this out:  UK ETFS Launches Shariah-compliant ETC's.

 

The part that caught my eye was this: "In purchasing the security, the investor obtains an allocated physical entitlement to the underlying bullion..."  More study needed.

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Islamic finance has been making inroads in a number of areas.  For example, a "Sharia-compliant Mastercard" has been launched this month.  But before you get excited about a card with no interest, interest not allowed under Sharia compliant/Islamic finance, remember this is a prepaid card. 

 

Why anyone would do a card instead of cash just escapes me.  Cards have developed a real mystique.  Only thing I can figure is if I was going to get mugged, a card would be better than cash..

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Also in the UK, Britain has launched its first Sharia-compliant insurance firm recently, too.

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Qatar launches a Sharia-compliant investment bank.

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An "Indonesia Shariah fund aims to double its assets by end-2008" reads another headline.

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Put all of this together and you can see an emerging outline of a conflict between financial systems at a global level.  On the one hand, we have the West featuring predatory lending practices and 33% interest (and even higher on some credit cards).  On the other, we have Sharia compliant investing which doesn't partake of the interest-monster, instead being based on buy-sell transactions.

 

A threat to the West? Oh yeah, in a serious way.  I mean beyond barring investment in companies that deal in pork, alcohol, or banks and finance outfits that charge interest.  This is one of those big, slow-moving like a glacier stories that doesn't get much play in the MSM but it's the stuff that changes the world over time.

 

Pakistan in Revolution

Oh, it may have looked calm with the departure of president Musharraf, but here we are a week later and the coalition party is on the verge of splitting. Indian troops are enforcing a curfew in Kashmir - one dead from that.  Behind the scenes: currency issues and starvation looming.

 

Rearview Economics

Existing Home sales will come out in about an hour.  Consumer confidence tomorrow, which along with FOMC minutes are likely to be seized on by the market.  Wednesday we get durable orders which I figure will be close to flat line.  GDP and Personal Income highlight Thursday and Friday ahead of next weekend's holiday.

 

Now that the Games are over in Beijing, the propping of the dollar is over, so over the next couple of weeks I expect it will resume its drop.  That has pushed up oil a bit, which means maybe topping off the tank early this week should be on your agenda.

 

In what's become a sad tradition, it seems like the bank failures are all being timed until after the markets close on Fridays.  Take the Friday announcement that the Columbia Bank and Trust was closed by Regulators up in Topeka Friday, just for instance.  But no, this isn't the 'big one' that's hanging out in predictive linguistic modelspace.  Don't be in a hurry for it...

 

Although subject of a lot of discussion on the 'net, HSBC says it's now mostly back online after a series of computer issues last week.

 

Weathering

Not very often this happens: An August frost in the upper Midwest. Wonder what that will do to crops?

 

Cleanup continues as the remnants of tropical storm Fay lingered over the weekend. Wonder what that will do to crops?

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Having tornados hitting Denver over the weekend may be the Universe winking at all the big winded blowhard rhetoric to come with the convention this week.  Yeah, we get it.

 

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Coping: Guns Rights?
There quite a story in Oklahoma about how "Police tell owners: 'We're inspecting your guns'" in a case involved the shooting death of two girls. 

 

The crimes are terrible, to be sure, but having the police send out requests to gun owners to bring their guns in for testing...it just boggles the mind.  The story has been all over the gun boards this weekend.

 

Driving/School

In some parts of the country, kids are going back to school today.  Houston is just one of many.  I'd maybe be watching for those school zone signs and flashing lights...

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